neil: much higher a little while ago. when the market got wind of an inflation report on the retail side that was better than expected, they were seeing nothing but clouds, the dow up 800 points. that was then. we've got up a large chunk of those gains and the nasdaq and the s&p still in positive territory. november retail inflation was up 0.1% for the month a lot less than the 0.3% estimate and at the core, you can't live your life without them. year over year we were running at 7.1% clip. in june we were running at a 9% clip but a little while ago, still a 7 in front of that

number year over year. 7.1% but what to make of the market reaction to this we have jim beyond go --bianco it is in that role i would like to pick your brain and it is on this number today, ready to pull the trigger on another half point hike. >> we will see a half percentage point hike and the market will turn to what prospects are for the february 1st meeting. there's a voting rotation that occurs after tomorrow's vote, the federal market committee, there' s the press conference and what investors should be focused on is how long powell indicates he will keep interest

rates at a high level. trillions of dollars in private equity that is marked to market, a lot of factors go in and except for one or 2 months as downside in the cpi. markets read into powell looking past this and stay more resolute than they would prefer. neil: we started the year around 0 and now we are looking as things stand, may be after half a point hike, 4.5%, it is a big advance and i wonder if that reality is setting in and we have yet to feel the impact. what do you think? >> we haven't felt the impact and that reality needs to be set in.

the market is never priced in, where is the fed going to pique interest rates at 5%, and rates are back to 3.5 and back down. if the reality sets in, anything but that would be a surprise. may be continued rate in the january meeting, hold for the rest of the year. that is a disappointment to the market because the market expects 3.5% lower, into early 2024. neil: factoring in the fed funds rate south of where we are after close to 5%.

>> the word we are not allowed to say is transitory but it still believes that. it always believed inflation is transitory, never really went away and therefore they always thought somewhere in the future rates would come down. when we start to realize the inflation thing is behind us, if we start to think that might not be the case inflation is coming down but is not going to go back to 2%, might be higher than that but interest rates, higher for longer, that won't then become a problem for the market in 2023. neil: how much of a discussion will this retail event be? >> it will be a focus but we

are talking about academics here, they know shelter of 7. one% year over year much higher than it was in the last housing boom, that is problematic and sticky and will remain in the data for months to come but is going to keep the fed under fire, to continue fighting the inflation fight, that is not what markets anticipate when they use the word pivot at all. neil: i want to pick your brain on some big purchases including superexpensive airplanes coming up later in the show. sam bankman-fried was arrested yesterday, the new ceo testifying on capitol hill today. what do you have for us? charles: lots of stuff going on, white-collar lawyers coming through sam bankman-fried's released testimony, written

testimony before this committee, they are shaking their head saying it is pretty delusional and the bottom line, i am asking people how to put this case together so fast and reporting they wanted to do this before the end of the year and it is 2 more weeks before the end of the year. how do they do it so quick? the consensus is somebody, a whistleblower or a lot of people pointed to carolyn ellison of sam bankman-fried's former girlfriend, part of brandeis enterprise, she's possibly the cooperator. that's not confirmed. she hired a law firm that generally does the use play agreements with the us attorneys of the southern district. people think there is a cooperator, some people think this guys going to jail for a long time, pretty tight case.

i know he was making media rounds, seemed like he full reporters, he fooled congress people like maxine waters who said thank you for being so honest with everybody in talking to reporters but didn't fool the us attorney's office but you can't create, confirm and take someone else's money and say it is a mistake. it's not the way things work. i've been telling you this for a long time. so many networks, what this guy's line of bs, it is run of the mill, take what is yours and spend it, gambling in the casino of crypto, it is pretty cut and dried, probably not going to get 15 years in jail but don't be surprised if they don't find any of the money, if it is all gone and the numbers

i hear is anywhere from 8 billion to 2 billion depending on who you're talking about. this guy is going to jail for a long time. neil: on that issue, one fellow, a lot of things to talk about is an hour-long conversation on these matters, good to have you. what do you make of things that have happened since that conversation and what you are learning, what he placed. >> is doubling down on his earlier points. it is unprecedented the it relationship between alameda and ftx is intimate and not as are presented by sam bankman-fried entered a

reporter talking about the possible person who was the whistleblower, caroline ellison going to new york, being spotted outside the coffee shop of the us attorney's office. he was aware of it and contemplative about her role in terms of having a hard job but he knew the writing was on the wall at this point. neil: i raised this before, bernie madoff comparison trying to bring in some big names keeping them happy, paying them and sort of using them as ringleaders to other big names, classic ponzi scheme. do you see any similarities with boldfaced names, actors, that he was able to win over

and commit to endorsing anything crypto in the early game. and >> he would buy influence at various publications, when it comes to fraud of this, with 40,000 people mostly well-heeled, the broad impact is so large that even whatever you might pay someone is doing so much relative to public opinion. neil: it is different from the bernie madoff case, if there was any exposure to ftx,

anything that took it on the chin, a large part because of this investigation of bankruptcy, you have a larger case to make against the guy. >> you definitely do and a lot of people who are most angry with him, in the interview we talked about that, how you need to segment funds for spot traders versus margin traders, but between ftx international. not a sharp dividing line. and and he's gambling with us citizens funds. neil: do you think he goes to jail the rest of his life. >> i think so. made off got one hundred 50 and you don't want to be the

subject of the government setting an example. so many crosshairs and attention on him that to do anything other than throwing the book at him would be bad optic so i think he spent the rest of his life in jail or an extended amount of his life behind bars in white-collar facility. neil: you have been a big help figuring this craziness out. and potential criminality as well. taking a look at developments of what is happening in the economy and highflying companies and exchanges, that is all it is, title 42, are we ready for that? after this.

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neil: the president, bigger issues than what is going on there, what is going on? >> the president knows how important border security is and he gets routine briefings on this. neil: he rarely talks about it. >> the number of times he talks about it doesn't convey how important the issue is. neil: he doesn't think it is a pressing fisher, there are -- >> the president knows the importance of border security, i can assure you that. neil: whether the president understands we will find out in 8 days, title 42, this exemption allows a lot of these cases that used to be adjudicated in the united states, they would come back to the side of the border and so far no clear signal whether they will extend that or

whether they have provided enough resources to deal with life after that. jackie heinrich has more. >> reporter: on sunday night hundreds of migrants mainly from nicaragua crossed the rio grande into el paso and can't be expelled under title 42 because of strange double medic relations but 8 days from now nobody will be expelled under title 42 when the health order expires so the. we are seeing at the border right now with those migrants give us a preview as to what we might be seeing in a week or so, there are reports, 40,000 people waiting to get in. democrat lawmakers making a last-ditch plea to extend the pandemic era public health policy including joe manchin and henry cuellar, they've not come up with a plan to maintain

control of the southern border, the situation is untenable and we must keep in place their ability to expel migrants, and alternative policies and resources, the white house says they are working to get an alternative policy in place but we haven't heard details about a new program on the horizon just yet. >> that is a process others can speak to better than i can but from my perspective the issues related to an orderly migration process at the border are persistently addressed through the interagency process and we are working through what procedures will be in place on the 20 first. >> reporter: the border patrol chief tweeted stats from over the weekend, border patrol encountered 16,000 people, 97 million in narcotics, four firearms, one was stolen, two sex offenders, two murderers

and when injury to a child. the administration can still use title viii to export deportations after title 42 goes away but according to recent court filings, lawmakers, those democrats sending against the admin a station dhs is reliant on title 42 to handle migrants from mexico in northern triangle countries. when title 42 goes away critics say the message the border is open will be more amplified and they are not using this other legal order to manage it adequately. you heard from jake sullivan they are figuring out what procedures are in place. neil: thank you very much for that. december 21st, to resolve this one way or the other, doesn't look like they've looked in title 42. what do you think?

>> it is bad and it is going to get worse. this is the fiscal year encounters, 2020 which ended september 2020, we had 458,000 encounters by border patrol, people taken into custody. 248,511% increase. we hope fiscal 2023, that is october, coming across 320,000, coming across, 7500 people a day. that is before the title 42 expires and then we can see routinely days in which 10,000 people come across the border. neil: you are an expert in political strategy. i cannot understand the wisdom of a strategy that likens this

to operation ignore or cricket's response, no response but there must be a strategy to that. what is it? >> ignorance. when you have homeland security secretary saying the border secure the vice president repeating that mantra when it is not secure and anyone who turned on the television are picks up a newspaper from one of the affected communities or talk to a leader in an affected community something is wrong. the administration has a broken approach to homeland security and border security. it leaves people thinking they want these people to come in. i'm not certain that is where they are but it is a broken system and the fact the administration is not prioritizing this, that was bureaucratic doublespeak. they know when this deadline is, they need to have a plan in place and the fact they don't is why we see increasing

numbers of people coming across the border. in october 7500 a day, this past weekend it was over 8000 today coming across the border, big problem brewing and they are not doing anything about it. neil: i wonder if the politics of arizona came into play as well. sort of the races that made senator kelly a senator again and the governorship. i am wondering, if they are reading that to say that is a border state, republicans pounded the border issue and surged at the border and got squat for it. >> they flipped a democratic congressional seat. texas, we took another border seat in the rio grande valley and senator mark kelly, when issue he broke with the

administration on in a high-profile way was the administration's policy on the border is wrong, i am begging them to change, we have broken -- neil: what are they seeing that has them thinking it goes away? >> i don't think they are looking at it politically, they are not looking at it at all. i think they think this is a problem that is being overblown by border state governors, they are ready to have a border state governor has a democrat, letter deal with it because what they are hearing from katie hobbs is this is draining our social service network, overwhelming health services, providing a threat to the safety of the border communities, she is going to hear the same thing from democrat and republican mayors along the border in her state, from elected officials along our border and that is this is a crisis so maybe it is good

that they have a democrat governor is arizona talking abortion saying no more excuses, you got to help us. neil: you probably heard what the president had to say about better than expected inflation report coming off worse levels and by next year things will be back to normal. i'm simplifying it. >> this guy said it would be transitory, an annual rate of 7. one%, the target is 2%. we have a long way to go. he waved his wand and suggested everything is hunky-dory next year, he already did that last year and didn't turn out to be a hunky-dory year when it came to dealing with inflation.

neil: good seeing you again. karl rove on all of that. we've got a major storm about to hit 2 thirds of the country. some will get a lot of snow. others will get a lot of ice. some will get flight cancellations. that's happening by thousands of flights. this is a big one. are you when it? probably, after this. ♪ ♪ charging something like a hundred bucks a window when other guys were charging four to five-hundred bucks. he just didn't wanna do that. he was proud of the price he was charging. ♪ my dad instilled in me, always put the people before the money. be proud of offering a good product at a fair price. i think he'd be extremely proud of me, yeah. ♪

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neil: there is no rest for the weary whether hurricanes or massive floods or monster of a winter storm. when all is said and done it affects 2 thirds of the country. craig, what are we looking at?

>> reporter: talk about that monster storm. look how impressive that shape is. this is impacting blizzard like conditions. in the south severe weather. this one came out of california, moved into the rockies and as it moves to the north we could see a foot of fresh snow over the dakotas. you factor in the winds out of the northwest, you could see blizzard like conditions. even if the snow is not falling, a foot of fresh snow, the snow blowing around. blizzard conditions, visibility dropping to 1/4 mile, blowing snow or falling snow and this will last 3 hours or longer, the warmer side of the storm, severe weather all morning, ef to tornado confirmed in oklahoma. the afternoon and evening, it slides on the gulf coast states into look mississippi, alabama, southern georgia and florida, we will see severe impact as we

go through wednesday and thursday. that's the southern side of it. a little spin in the atmosphere created another area of low pressure. millions of people across the northeast affected by this. how far does it track? will go far enough south as new york city? looks like this will be to the north but hard to tell where this will go. on the backside of that with all the blizzards in place, blizzard warnings over the dakotas, ice storm warnings over south dakota, ice up to half an inch thick which would cause power outages, the trees were the lines, winter storm warnings in wyoming and what about colorado still dealing with winter weather advisories. we will see winter weather advisories into minneapolis. here's the track, we see snow

coming down extending over the northeastern corner of colorado. here are the eastern plains. you have thunder snow. this is a thunderstorm but you're getting snow, convective cells are producing a lot of snow and those periods of time. it extends 500 miles through dallas and at the airport in dallas they had people shelter in place, they had a tornado warning over the airport. the severe threat from shreveport to baton rouge as we go through the afternoon and the snow potential, this weekend, into new england. neil: you are one of the most recognized iconic weatherman in the country. where you into were you into this as a kid? >> i was. i looked at the clouds trying

to figure out what was going on and took it right here. you appreciate it too. neil: i love your passion and your smarts. be careful out there. it will be nasty. some developments, looking at an energy breakthrough that could change the way we use energy to say nothing of how we tap it. >> reporter: this is a major breakthrough. an energy source we don't hear much about, nuclear fusion. the energy secretary said scientists at lawrence livermore national have for the first time generated energy, not from splitting atoms but combining them. >> simply put, this is one of the most impressive scientific feet of the 21st century.

>> fusion is called, low-risk, formal, unlimited and the carbon free power source producing radioactive waste. >> the raw material is water, no radioactive waste to bury some place. this will help us get through climate change. >> reporter: two weeks ago scientists focused 192 lasers on a capital the size of a bb. for the first time after decades of trying, it began to replicate producing more energy than the lasers consumed. >> milestone, moves us one significant step closer to the possibility of 0 carbon abundant fusion energy powering our society. >> reporter: officials call it net energy and a milestone in a fundamental building block to a commercial reactor which remains a decade away.

>> you could not see a pathway to fusion energy plant so this was a necessary first step. >> reporter: $700 million year infusion research, some of that goes to national labs and invested in the private sector. the bottom line is we are not going to see fusion energy tomorrow but if they can scale it economically it does unlock a new source of clean energy hopefully in a decade. neil: i should have stayed awake in physics class. thank god you did. you made sense. now i know what fusion is all about. what i do have an idea is busy christmas shopping season. americans buying gifts stronger than they thought. they are not doing as much when it comes to charity after this. ♪

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neil: we should give more to charity, a lot of buoyant consumer mood is still on, with the problems in the economy. doesn't madison alworth know it? >> reporter: the most wonderful time of the year. they need extra help and they have been helping for the past 132 years, they are bringing donations through the war. i want to bring in commissioner

kenneth harder. how much has the need increased in communities that you serve? >> we are seeing an increase of need between 30% to 50%. in some locations it is as much as 400%. >> reporter: why are you seeing that increased need? why do they need that help? >> inflation taking a bite out of everyone's budget, 2 thirds living paycheck to paycheck, they are making choices between putting food on the table or paying their utility bill, paying the rent bill are putting christmas presents under the tree. it is a time of difficult choices. people who might normally give to the army are coming to us for assistance. >> reporter: he relied on help from 132 years and the community has shown up but let's talk about this year. how has this pressure impacted donations? >> donations are down. in some locations as much as 10% below last year and that is

of concern to us because there were a lot of people in the communities we serve, when people give to the salvation army they are giving to the people in their communities. it can make a difference. >> merry christmas to you. >> reporter: i want to wonderscore, the points about the local community. all over the city, all over the country, any dollar goes immediately back to that community. not often you spent a lot of years in new york that you see new yorkers helping out, in the new york area, really amazing to see that help around this time of year. neil: thank you, madison alworth on all that. united, 100 boeing dreamliner's.

100 of them. after this.

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neil: ever do a list that you need to go grocery shopping, get soup, pepperoni, things like that? companies do their own lists and in the case of united, eggs or pepperoni, it did have 100 boeing dreamliners. they put the money down for one hundred boeing dreamliner's would cost more than other items i mentioned and then some. gerri willis has more on that. >> reporter: no united airlines buying 100787 dreamliner wide bodied jets with an option to purchase one hundred more. the airline saying it expects to take delivery of 700 new narrow and wide-body aircraft by 2032.

in addition, and and 3% last year. shares of dollar general, slightly higher as the company announces a plan to snag upper middle income families tired of inflation. top self-concepts, caters to suburban customers with incomes of $50,000-$100,000 with items priced at $5. shelves are stocked with gourmet chocolates and portobello mushroom turkey. maybe we could head over there later. neil: not a bad idea. you are doing arugula and all of this but thank you very much, good seeing you. what do you think of these purchases? people look at a big airliner

and similar companies, you see a smattering of that as a sign that corporate america has the cash and confidence to commit that. jim, what do you think? >> i'm good at disagreeing. i have to say no. this is why we usually exclude aircraft because they are special 1-time events. it is great united is buying a bunch of airplanes from boeing. if we want to start penciling in higher corporate earnings in gdp because some planes were purchased for delivery in 10 years, we see enough economic data to know that's usually not the case. neil: let's look at what they are doing with their personnel. some announced layoffs. it is generally around the 2% level, hasn't gone over that.

when you hear couple thousand weight off at microsoft you realize you 're not good at 300,000 workers but we are seeing that but what do you make of that? >> we might see more than dribs and drabs as we crossed into 2,023. we are seeing that spread to the economy, jetblue said it is seen disappointing bookings and its stock is down big. we have to get through the lagged effects of fed tightening and what that is on the economy. i follow daily job cuts.com. they do a great job. they have 105 smaller businesses for perspective. in november 1, '30 for the whole month. we are starting to see pain percolate through the economy and we will see a broadening and deepening of these.

neil: when people look at the mountains and say they accurately reflect the degree to which we have been punished and factor in the punishment to come what do you make of that? >> it misses the point. markets are driven by one thing and one thing only lately. that is cheap money from the fed. that is, i've been in the margins 30 years and never seen an economic release get the kind of reaction like you got from the cpi today. no other release produced these wild movements we've seen in the market and that is because nobody cares about earnings, jobs, gdp, they only want the fed to pivot and cut rates. the joke is pick the companies and hope they go to hell because in a federal pivot and stock will go up, pick good

companies and they produce profits, hire more people and god for bid, raise their prices, you have a problem with your stock in 2023. that is how upside down this world is. neil: to the point the fed was overdoing it, it will hurt those companies because we are yet to see the implications of these rate hikes, beginning with quarter point one and ending with the 3-quarter point hikes and tomorrow another half point hike and maybe the cpi report the first sign the rate of separation is slowing but we haven't seen the impact from this. >> typically, speaking of the lag affect they are talking 18 to 24 months, we've seen the fed raise rates at the fastest pace in modern history and they're still going to be a lag but it is going to be shorter. by this time next year, the fool economy will be feeling the brunt of these rate hikes especially in the case of uncle

sam and other borrowers who don't have cash flow to hold the debt at higher levels. we will see pain and it will be reflected in the markets if jay powell is able to stick around until the job is done which translates into getting rates to close to 5% on the overnight level and keeping them there through 2023. neil: you say keeping them there, not reversing toward the end of the year. >> jim is probably with us on this, that's the least priced in potential for market heading into 2,023 that expect rates to come down quickly and hard. neil: say a new investor, sitting this one out, curious about the timing, what to do

now, they want and because stocks have been down enough. >> a lot of it has to do with their time and perspective. if you are in your 60s, it is not price, will the market make an all-time high? yes but will make an all-time high in 6 years. if you're in your 60s, it doesn't matter. if you have longer-term time horizon, if you think it will make a new high next year it might be aggressive and if you don't have that long a time to wait for the market to rebound i would be more cautious. neil: i would like to ask about 6 days from now. maybe we can explore that. i want to thank you, you are very helpful. the dow up 400 points. more after this.

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neil: all right, remember we were up 800 points this morning? well we're not. we're up 87 points. we had been down. it's a weird reaction to a retail inflation report ended up being better than expected but might not change the dynamics for another rate hike tomorrow. maybe that is sinking in. i have no idea. i have no idea but i know my buddy charles payne does to take it into the next hour. hey, charles. charles: it might be too good. which is odd to say. thank you so much, my friend. folks, breaking right now, we're awaiting a press conference from the southern district of new york