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stuart: it is inevitable at some point before christmas we play that. good morning, everyone. it is 10:00. let's get to the money. the market is moving up. maybe there is a feeling when jay powell will be dovish. there is some feeling the market about that, dow up 168 points. is it up or down? it is 349, moving below 350. the price of oil up $76 a barrel. the markets at 10:00 eastern. now this. how come some supposedly smart guys handed over billions of dollars to sam bankman-fried? was it his dressdown look?

baggy shorts, stained t-shirt and mussed up hair? successful techies often dressdown. remember mark zuckerberg absolutely? haven't tribbett a crypto guy where a suitor. one of the colleagues told the new york times, quote, sam and i would intentionally not wear pants to meetings. the shabby look was deliberate, designed to convince investors the odd looking guy before them was a techie genius. twentysomethings checking around billions, no need to worry about that, no board of directors? no sweat. he dresses like he is from another world and folks throwing money at him wanted to get into that world, crypto prices going through the roof. besides his homeless look at fit nicely with his effective altruism, making money to give it away to good causes. the bankman-fried case has sent shivers through silicon valley, venture capitalists won't be as quick to chuck money at

youngsters with a good idea especially if they dress like sam bank superman-fried. suits could make a comeback. second hour of varney just getting started. liz peak with us this morning. why do so many intelligent people give a man dressed like that money? >> reporter: separately i can't about dress code, people gave him money because in an era of free money anything went and it could go full-circle saying it is on the thread, so many years of free money that everybody was pouring money into silicon valley, youngsters, people in business school would get call saying do you have an idea? hears $3 million. i know of these situations, everybody does. it was a lucas time but going back to your dress code issue

that is meant to symbolize disruption, unconventional thinking, people outside the mold. look at john fetterman running for the senate in pennsylvania. what was his main attribute? he looked like a slob, wore dark hoodies and had tattoos all over his body, young people thought it was terrific. they associate that with unconventional thinking, someone willing to break the mold and the other problem i would think, when in 10,000 people has any idea what crypto is all about? they didn't understand the exchange, didn't know what they were buying and thought it was a good thing. i am surprised to see bitcoin prices coming back in the aftermath of this debacle. there is no value matrix for bitcoin or if theory him - --ethereum. it is a greater fool theory and

in this case sam bankman-fried found something better. stuart: i like to cover a lot of ground with you. some unconventional territory this morning. you have an op-ed, legalizing pot is not good for new york or the us. explain yourself. >> it is being sold on a false premise, that you will get an enormous amount of tax revenue from selling pot. the truth is it worked in colorado until there was competition for their states, revenues now plunging and the programs like school programs that are dependent on our hurt very badly. why would there be an enormous amount of profits and taxes basically another agricultural product. and when there is competition still from illegal vendors. the whole premise is wrong but teenagers who become regular users of pot, i remember writing about this 10 years ago.

this is is not new news but advocates for cannabis ignored the damage done not just to teens but workers. the productivity of workers, walk around new york, you smell weed everywhere. do you think those people are hard at work doing the job they might be doing if they are not stoned? the answer is no. stuart: i'm not going to give you an argument. >> i know you want to. stuart: it is a shortage of time. another important subject. house minority leader mitch mcconnell, senate minority leader mitch mcconnell slamming donald trump saying trump fueled candidate quality problems during the midterms. >> we ended up having a candidate quality problem. look arizona, look at new hampshire, a challenging situation in georgia as well. our ability to control primary outcome was quite limited in 22 because of the support of the former president, prove to be

very decisive in these primaries. hopefully in the next cycle, we hopefully will have a better outcome. stuart: do you agree with that? >> it is true that donald trump attached himself and endorsed candidates who bought into his complaints about the 2,020 elections and claims that it was stolen and so on rather than assessing whether these people were electable. we know mark kelly was beatable in arizona, blake masters was not the person to do it, he raised no money, was not persuasive, new hampshire the same. they tried to get other people to run. that is a little bit on mitch mcconnell. we should have had a better candidate in new hampshire, we ended up, was basically an apostle of donald trump. i think mcconnell has a point. stuart: a lot of ground to cover. food for thought for the next

half-hour. >> and wearing suits. stuart: progressive group launching a new tv campaign geared towards 2024 urging biden not to run. >> don't think any of them are wearing suits. route action is launching this ad in new hampshire. >> president biden representing the status quo in 2,024 won't cut it. >> the front of the gop has been too obvious, the stakes could not be higher. >> our ideas are more popular than president biden. that undermines the democratic party's chances in 2,000 what he will. >> don't run, joe. >> don't run, joe. >> they say he is not progressive enough, that's why he shouldn't run and if he does run a republican will win. which republican? potential nominees, ron desantis would beat joe biden 46 to 42% in a hypothetical matchup but if the race were

between biden and trump, biden wins by 8 points. in a desantis trump primary desantis wins 56 to 33. that is among republican voters. that's the trump policy. stuart: that is a hypothetical primary, trump desantis. that is a big margin. let's get back to the markets. the dow industrials up 140 points. it looks like there's some sentiment in the market this morning that maybe this afternoon jay powell will be more of a dove than a hock. maybe that is why the market is going up. >> the market wants to rally badly. it is looking for any pivot. in june they were thinking pivot and we got the big rally,

the jackson hole, going higher longer in august and we saw a market go down and begin to rally in october because finally, today is the day and i vote the market goes up forever but reality is we see the outcomes of this cycle. stuart: do you think there's going to be a recession early next year? many people who appear on this program tell us recession is coming. early part of next year. there will be a recession because the fed, do you agree with that analysis? >> i do. the fed has told us they expect a recession. they repeated this four times. my expectation is around february or march, he will get out and share again and it is that timeframe we will get what gdp was for 2,022. an understanding of what earnings are looking like for corporate america, seeing

challenges like our national deficit, congress getting back to go to vote on the credit card. i see a lot of challenges facing us in 2023. i believe there's a high probability of severe recession into do you -- 23, and powell is not going to pivot the way everyone believes he will because he's not trying to make the paul volcker mistake of getting interest rates under control. stuart: fed watching is so complicated, isn't it? this happened, that happened, who knows? thanks for joining us. i am sure you will be watching this afternoon. let's look at the movers today. caesar's down 2%. lauren: bank of america downgraded both, the gaming industry faces a growth slowdown as we enter potential recession. stuart: best buy down 2%.

lauren: they take the price target to 69 from 80. they don't believe best buy will see earnings growth in the near and medium term. that's concerning and demand slowdown during recession. stuart: i don't know, via satellite, i don't know them. lauren: it had been a 4%, and out is up 2. partnership with micro soft help to deliver internet to 10 million people around the world. when you tie up with microsoft you get again. it was up 4% but it is interesting microsoft is also higher. stuart: let's get back to harry and megan. there dark you --docuseries streamed since its debut last week, martha mccallum covered the royals for years, what she think of the netflix series coming up in our next our. lawmakers on both sides of the

aisle want to ban tiktok nationwide is a growing number of states clampdown on the platform. we are on it. the senate banking committee will question one of the celebrities who promoted ftx before its collapse. hillary vaughan is covering the hearings closely and will bring the latest from capitol hill. ♪ ♪ [laughing and giggling] (woman) hey dad. miss us? (vo) reflect on the past, celebrate the future. this season with audi.

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but the weight wasn't going anywhere. the secret to losing weight and keeping it off is managing insulin and glucose. golo takes a systematic approach to eating that focuses on optimizing insulin levels. we tackle the cause of weight gain, not just the symptom. when you have good metabolic health, weight loss is easy. i always thought it would be so difficult to lose weight, but with golo, it wasn't. the weight just fell off. i have people come up to me all the time and ask me, "does it really work?" and all i have to say is, "here i am. it works." my advice for everyone is to go with golo. it will release your fat and it will release you. neil: the dow is up 140 points. maybe they think he will be dutch.

it is day 2 of the ftx hearings in the senate banking committee is questioning one of the celebrities who promoted ftx before its collapse. hillary vaughan on capitol hill. which celebrity are we talking about? >> reporter: shark tank's kevin o'leary is here to testify before the senate. he invested a lot of money on ftx and lost a lot of money. the subject of a class-action lawsuit targeting himself and other celebs who got paid to endorse ftx including tom brady and gisele, and larry david. o'leary says, $1 million, in tokens held in ftx saying all of that is lost, written it off 20. he said in his prepared testimony, i am using my capital to pursue recovery of

the ftx accounts, the truth of the situation will be discovered by following the transaction trail after obtaining the records. we need to get to the bottom what happened and not let it collapse cause us to abandon the great promise and potential of crypto. lawmakers were hoping to hear from sam bankman-fried himself but he's behind bars for yesterday's first hearing on capitol hill but lawmakers on the financial services committee get an idea of what went wrong behind the scenes from the current ceo ftx who testified yesterday. >> they were smitten with the idea of having a politically progressive smart entrepreneur who's going to reimagine capitalism while making them gobs of money and how he was making them gobs of money was outright fraud. these were sophisticated institutional investors who got sucked into it.

>> reporter: on his way into the hearing the senate banking chairman shared brown tells me this is not just in issue with ftx but all crypto exchanges in his mind are on notice. stuart: thank you very much. more on this. the new ceo ftx blames what he calls, quote, grossly inexperienced individuals for the ftx collapse. >> absolute concentration of control in the hands of a small group, unsophisticated individuals. implement virtually any of the systems or control necessary for other people's money or assets. stuart: vivek ramashwami, how is it possible inexperienced individuals including a leader dressed as a homeless person could bring in billions of

dollars, how is that possible? >> reporter: the young company was well-funded and created virtual around it. the most remarkable part of the story i saw, this was a company, assigning leadership and governance that was higher to ftx than exxonmobil so it is partly that it cultivated this veneer of virtue that made everyone flock behind him but turn the other way when it came to the obvious fact in plain sight which is this is not a firm people should have entrusted with large amount of assets but they look to the other way because he said the right things ended the so-called right things along the way. stuart: do you think silicon valley, the venture capitalist business, have they learned their lesson? >> i would like to say they have but i don't think they have. what has happened over the last decade is we had an excess

amount of capital to be invested. it is like mana from heaven printed by the federal reserve creating added risk-taking behavior that spawned some innovative companies but also loosened the standard many venture firms use to select their investment in the most interesting thing about the prosecution is one of the charges related to defrauding silicon valley investors like black rock who invested in ftx, there's how much accountability those investors confirm out to bear for what happened, failures and due diligence. stuart: earlier this morning we had mike pompeo on the show and he says you've got to ban tiktok nationwide. what do you say to banning tiktok nationwide? >> it makes good sense in the case of tiktok, this is not domestic protectionism but

addressing a national security issue. what china is doing, using companies as trojan horses to collect data including the next generation of americans but using that for geopolitical ends. by focusing on tiktok we make a mistake. this is something china is doing across the board not just with chinese companies but us companies. look at the wall street journal reporting on what airbnb turns over to the ccp as a condition for doing business there. this is not just a lightning rod of a tiktok issue but the beginning of opening our eyes to the fact that china, they view them as ponds in a geopolitical game. we have been deluding ourselves into thinking, and on the other side of the pacific. stuart: it is a new cold war if

you ask me. see you soon. stop paying rent on twitter headquarters. what is that? lauren: save money to fight litigation. that would get him in a lot of trouble. no more free food. it is a massive effort to cut costs and find revenue as he tries to remake twitter while creating a leadership vacuum at his other -- if you take a look at is less share prices down 11% down sharply monday, 1% today, down 28%, probably more since musk took over twitter. a major shareholder says

chesler stock needs shock therapy for a new ceo. chesler is suffering as he tries to remake twitter. stuart: thanks. the governor of florida, ron desantis wants a grand jury to investigate covid vaccines. there isn't enough information on the side effects of all those shots. president biden touting his economic plan after the latest inflation report. he insists inflation is coming down and we are headed in the right direction. joe durrant is on the show in charge of personal management at goldman sachs, powerful guy. let's see what he's got to say about inflation. ♪ ♪

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results for cancer vaccines the skin cancer vaccines, capital market says they are not going much higher yet they are, the share price is going higher. nothing negative to say about the stock. share prices caught up. stuart: up another 4%. delta expect growth in the travel business. lauren: revenue growth of 20% but let's put up jetblue and spirit on the screens. they were down. does delta have a more affluent consumer who might be because of inflation might be better equipped to deal with the slowdown whereas if you look at jetblue it is down today, spirit airlines is down. stuart: jetblue is down to $7 a share.

tesla, goldman sachs. lauren: their price target, 235 from 305. this has nothing to do with twitter. goldman sachs is worry about demand softening. they say the brand is more polarizing and cut their delivery target by one hundred thousand, to one. 85 million vehicles for next year. that is from goldman sachs on chesler. stuart: a guy from goldman sachs, very important guy actually not only for goldman sachs but personal-finance, the whole of goldman sachs. your company, goldman sachs, expects 3, 25 basis point rate hikes into thousand 23. if you are right, if goldman sachs, the mighty investment banker, with 25 basis points.

>> we thought we would be between 4000, 4150. 5 or 6 weeks ago it seemed like a stretch. the forecast is relatively accurate. next year around 4350 to 4450. it doesn't mean a straight line. into recession, the last two years, the market, you should see more volatility. 16% on the us and b, much more on the nasdaq, dow is doing very well. we took value stocks which the dow predominantly is. that was a good strategy and we think that continues. you want to be in the us and even though we have a nice run in november, it is up 11. we priced in a lot of recovery.

probably a recession coming. stuart: this into president biden speaking about favorable inflation number that came out yesterday morning. >> president biden: inflation coming down in america. just getting started. the goal is simple. get price increases under control, not choking off economic growth. bring inflation down by keeping the labor market resilience. make no mistake, prices are still too high. we have work to do but things are getting better, headed in the right direction. stuart: things are getting better, headed in the right direction. your forecasting a recession early next year. >> two things affecting, commodity prices have come down, dollars moderated.

a couple things are sticky. it is employment, people get pay raises, pushing through interest rates to renters that have long-term traction. we are thinking it will be 4% inflation a year from now. that's better than 7 but still a lot higher than most people like, especially the retirees we work with. it will help them to manage what they do in an inflationary environment. it will just be lower than the high pricing you see this year. stuart: you are from zimbabwe, not south africa. >> i'm an american but grew up in zimbabwe with rapid inflation. went with shopping bags to go shopping for food and they would change the pricing while

you were there, they couldn't change the cans of food, price and, price b, price see, they would change the plastered in the middle while you were shopping. stuart: welcome to america, you make the right choice there. see you soon. now let's turn to football as in soccer. argentina overpowered croatia to secure a place in the world cup final. the last shot at winning the biggest title in staying alive, still could win it. ashley webster, what have you got? ashley: what a world cup it has been. wasn't happy with where they were playing it but a great tournament. the question is who is argentina going to play for the world title this coming sunday? that, by the way, will be decided today when france takes on the biggest surprise of the 12:00 noon, by far, morocco, a place in the world cup final, france is a close neighbor and former colonial power which provides a lot of added spice.

estimated one. 5 million moroccans live in france and paris and the south coast, some 10,000 french police officers will be motorized nationwide for the game, more than double the normal number. the game itself can be interesting, kicks off at 2:00 pm eastern today on fox. cannot wait. it will be really good. stuart: thanks, talk to you later. parents struggling to get their hands on antibiotics and it is becoming difficult to find alternatives. lydia is talking to pharmacists. what is behind this ongoing shortage? home prices going down. that could be bad news for homeowners for all kinds of reasons. we will sort it out for you next. ♪

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stuart: left-hand side of the screen and ice chunk of green, dow is up one hundred 50, nasdaq of 50 points. the federal reserve expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points today. grady tremble with me today. what is the white house saying about inflation? >> president biden isn't giving credit to the federal reserve for pulling inflation. instead, he says it is his policies that are responsible. >> president biden: what is clear is my economic plan is working and we are just getting started. my goal is simple. get price increases under control without choking off economic growth. bring inflation down while keeping the labor market resilience.

>> reporter: what biden cited as his goal is the fed's dual mandate too. the 50 basis point rate hike would signal a slight shift for drone -- jerome powell in the federal reserve moderating the pace of rate increases in each of the last four meeting starting in june, the fed hiked rates by 75 basis points. this is the fastest pace of increases since the 1980s, the goal to bring down inflation that has happened yesterday but prices remain stubbornly high especially for food. look at eggs nearly 50% more expensive than a year ago. milk and coffee up 15% from last year in addition to the fed's rate hike decision this afternoon we are expecting to get another look at new economic projections for next year. that will give us a sense as to whether to expect more rate hikes in 2023 and more specifically by how much they

keep raising rates. stuart: thanks very much. watch this afternoon at 2:00, thanks. i want to bring ashley back because i need something explains. why is the decline in home prices bad news for some new homeowners? ashley: because an alarming number of those new homeowners are finding out that they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth. that's not good. victims of the housing frenzy, the push - pushed home prices sky high. and estimated 250,000 americans took out a mortgage just this year, now underwater. another 1 million had less than 10% equity. one in 12 homes bought in 2022 are underwater. it is worse for individuals with government backed mortgages come at 25% of those buyers this year now oh more than their home is worth. during the pandemic, we know demand isn't readily strong.

inventory very low. somewhere buyers even waived home inspections and appraisals. they paid hundreds of thousands over asking price. now all of that is coming home to roost. the home prices drop and the value compared to mortgages underwater. stuart: another explainer. data shows the worst of inflation may be behind us. what does tampa, florida have to do with it? ashley: tampa is a city where inflation has run in the double digits for quite some time but it has now fallen below 10%, perhaps the strongest sign yet that the worst may be over for us consumers, consumer prices and at florida city dropped to 9.6%, just under 10%, that was last month, the first time since january the rates were in single digits. nationwide also 5 metro areas fell to 6% inflation or lower

in november. that includes new york, 5. 9%. california cities saw some notable drops in inflation last month. the annual rate in la fell one. 5% % to 6%, electricity prices in san diego rose at the slowest pace in 2 years. signs that inflation is at least coming down a little, but still historically high. stuart: we will take it. the cambridge dictionary accused of appeasing woke activists. they updated the definition of man and woman. you won't believe what they came up with, we are up with it. look at these headlines, jason rantz says the media in seattle returning to fear mongering stories over the tridemic. that is next.

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before golo, i was barely eating but the weight wasn't going anywhere. the secret to losing weight and keeping it off is managing insulin and glucose. golo takes a systematic approach to eating that focuses on optimizing insulin levels. we tackle the cause of weight gain, not just the symptom. when you have good metabolic health, weight loss is easy. i always thought it would be so difficult to lose weight, but with golo, it wasn't. the weight just fell off. i have people come up to me all the time and ask me, "does it really work?" and all i have to say is, "here i am. it works." my advice for everyone is to go with golo. it will release your fat and it will release you. stuart: parents struggling to find antibiotics. lydia is in new jersey for us.

what is behind the shortage? >> many critically needed raw ingredients, coming from overseas, in china, 0 covid policy, disrupt the supply of medication in the united states. take a look at this. 83% supplying drug ingredients are based overseas. china accounts for 13% of companies in the us make up just 10%. you see how china and india have grown. companies in india in the green that you see here, they were associated 20% in 2000 but by the end of last year, that are going to 62% for the year.

grew from 4 to 23%. the number of american companies making drug ingredients, it shrank from 14% last year. we talked to the ceo of us antibiotics, described as the only licensed us manufacturer of such products. he calls this a national security risk. >> 80% of all antibiotics produced in india or china or overseas. that puts us as a country in substantial risk, not only -- it is a public health risk. a security risk for our country. we become dependent on some of these other countries. >> reporter: the store you see behind me, they are running low

on amoxicillin. it has been bound backorder for 2 or 3 weeks. the ceo says until the us brings the supply chain back to american soil issues like this will continue to pop up moving forward. very important issue. stuart: the governor of florida, rhonda santos calling for a grand jury investigation into covid vaccines. what does he want? you are in this. what does he want? ashley: what does he want. to santos says he wants an investigation into and all wrongdoing with respect to those vaccines. >> it is against the law to mislead, when they are talking about the efficacy of the drug. i am announcing a petition with the supreme court of florida to impanel a statewide grand jury to investigate any and all

wrongdoing in florida with respect to covid 19 vaccines. ashley: the republican governor didn't give any specifics what wrongdoing the panel would investigate. it suggested it would be in part aimed at finding more information about the vaccines and potential harmful side effects. desantis conduct a roundtable discussion with florida's surgeon general and a panel of scientists and physicians, some of that centered on pharmaceutical companies that have not provided their data on vaccines to independent researchers. the governor expect to get approval from the supreme court for the grand jury to be impaneled. stuart: take a look at these headlines. they come from seattle. the media is restarting fear mongering over the potential tried mx --tridemic.

is seattle masking up all over again? >> seattle never stopped masking up. we are talking the media across washington and part of the reason is your continuing to spread this message that it is necessary. we've seen a slight increase in covid cases but the real issue here is the flu. we hear from public health officials telling us when you go indoors you should be masked up. our flu rates double and hospital rates double but when you look at the raw numbers is low. all of these numbers, there are more cases of flu. we have a flu season. a lot of people disingenuously comparing what we are having now to the last couple years of the flu. they pretend last few years we didn't have flu at all. because of the overlap of symptoms, numbers so far do not

bear out the fear mongering at this point. it still constantly tell people we are on the verge of more of this, and they leveled down last week, we had our peak. one of the key issues they've been sounding alarms on our on the downturn. we should be responsible, mitigate any risks the way we normally would when it comes to covid or the flu. it goes too far in public health officials mean well. their intention is to keep everyone safe but when they go this far people tune it out and we need to listen to them, don't know how many people will. stuart: the cambridge dictionary has updated the definition of man and woman. it now defines woman as, quote, an adult who lives and identifies as female those they

may have been said to have a different sex at birth. man is, quote, an adult who lives and identifies as male but they may have been said to have a different sex at birth. would you like to respond to that? >> i would like them to define female and male. that is interesting. here's what this is about. it is a smart strategy. the left brings these arguments particularly around these social issues by changing the language. you change the language you get to dictate the debate which it is easy to win a debate if you change the language but clearly don't want this to go too far. what's to stop us based on this argument a 16-year-old identifying is a 21-year-old should get the same rights afforded a 20 one-year-old. what is the reason we would say no to that if we accept this definition of gender? stuart: you are entirely right. good stuff.

thanks for being with us. still had, randi weingarten has refused to appear before a house subcommittee investigating the impact of the pandemic on schools. house minority whip steve scully's wants to know what role she played in school covid policies. she has friends in high places. "my take" is next. ♪ ...

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