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neil: very young and creative staff and using as a backdrop for expectation the fed will raise interest rates today, josh grogan, raise me up. something tells me old josh was not considering the bank lending rate of federal funds but i am told otherwise and that was indeed the inspiration for that. who knew? but we are expecting rates to be raised up yet again, this time not by 3 quarters of a point which has been the case at the last four meetings but more like half a point but in case you're counting, that would be the seventh rate hike this year which brought us from essentially 0 when this started, to 4% and they are not done and that is what we are waiting for the details, what future plans are. ashley webster following all of that.

ashley: inflation starting to slow down but tell that to consumers who get sticker shock with every trip to the grocery store. look at these items, prices are still high, eggs are up, 49.1%, year over year. coffee 14.6, even fruit and vegetables up nearly 10%. one of the biden administration's top economic advisers says there is reason to celebrate. listen to this. >> the good news is over the last couple months we 've seen inflation in food coming down and what economists refer to as food at home, the cost at grocery stores is coming down but that is a trend we need to see continue. ashley: yes. the supply chain is better. commodity prices are easing, the strength of the dollar is waning.

all of those are positive. the labor market is still completely out of whack with 10 million jobs, that is pushing wages higher and ultimate forcing companies to raise prices for consumers. it is a vicious cycle if it is trying to break. even with the central bank rate hikes to slow things down inflation still expected to average, it's a big drop right here but still twice the 2% target of the fed. that is next year. don't expect the fed to back off even if we hear more dovish tones from fed chair jay powell. ashley: ashley webster, the backdrop for this is a strong economy and resilient consumer. madison madison alworth on that, the backdrop looks pretty good.

>> reporter: investors hope all the fed day could be better than the ones in recent months. they've seen positive movement that of that, expectation as we talked about, 50 basis point hike, then we have become accustomed to, the ones we've seen 4 times in a row. in terms of sector winners, technology is leading the charge. i want to talk about meta, they made some job cuts particularly within the meta universe, that increased confidence, there are cuts internally in terms of spending, some internal money goes towards company wellness cut from one thousand to 2,000, try to make those cuts. another thing driving the stock is the news they are launching a new anti-terrorism and trafficking initiative that

helping investor confidence. another stock doing well, the airline boosted its guidance after meeting expectations, delta, travel demand, despite concerns over the economy and we are talking optimistic, predicting 7% to 8% jump in revenue for the quarter ending in december. expecting adjusted earnings to double to $6 a share next year, still prioritizing experiences and we are starting to see that in the housing market as well. mortgage applications across 3% for the week, pulling down the increases applications, and improving situation with inflation, all eyes are on the fed decision, a direct impact on the rates and their applications.

neil: david wagoner, back on trends. the backdrop for whatever the fed does, happening now, signs the consumer is pretty disclosed to spending. i wonder, given the debt piling up, they will not show any time soon. >> the business-to-business component, business travelers who pay the bulk of the profits if you think about first-class seats, a lot more money than coach seats and then look at the consumer who if they had discretionary income, spending on experiences and if they don't travel during peak times like holidays, they will do

some shopping online and find the best seats, airports are packed, picking up somebody at palm beach international and bumper-to-bumper traffic just to do the pickups. the industry is doing well because they don't have as many bodies as they did pre-covid and they are efficient about flight selections, delta, american, united optimizing profits in a way they never could before. neil: they should be flying private. i am curious, because it keeps coming back to that, the resiliency is remarkable and they might be picking and choosing but if you were to tell me that 9 months or so into this rate hike the consumer would still be pointing to packed restaurants

are packed theaters or broadway shows and all of the above i would be scratching my head. what do you think of this? >> one of the things of our outlook is the sentiment for the consumer when will inflation provide growth frustration? you will see a transition, inflation and fed policy in the interim, i think consumers have cash but debt levels are high but it will finally wayne. i expect earnings-per-share guidance moving in 24 to show this. like i mentioned earlier, we haven't seen interests yet. neil: a collective read about the market, it is still going to be a challenging environment, a new investor comes up to you and says i want in. this has been overdone. might not be down the right

percentage but i want in now because the selloff is largely over. what do you think? >> the market rate -- sorry. >> i don't think the market rate is pricing in a lot of optimism. s&p 500 valuation for next year, 18.2 times that. the fed may have to hike 50 basis points in february, not do with the market expects about 20 basis point rate cut happening next year. jerome powell will take advantage of any market rally to press on inflation. his credibility, what i would tell an investor, the asset class, make sure you have a strategy in your portfolio. to take advantage of that, moving forward.

neil: if you look at technology stocks and buying opportunities, it is in the eye of the beholder but looking at apple, amazon, that is ridiculous, if the fed is going to slow down the pace of increases may be spread out these increases i want in because this is the technology stock you know better than most has been most profound. what would you tell them? >> if i look back at protracted selloffs whether it is the financial crisis, going to the tech bubble in the 90s. if you go back when there was a massive selloff and you felt

how palpable consumer sentiment wasn't, how ugly the market looked at the time, you missed a phenomenal buying opportunity. the microsofts of the world, apple was dead money but if you have enough for perspective and an investor for the long-term, when you see purse protected selloff s and pessimism about a sector like technology that is the time to be a contrarian. neil: to compound, very sorry, i want to echo what you guys see happening in an hour's time. have to hike, is that where you stand? >> half point hike and the words dead in the pendant will be used 100 times. neil: david. >> half point hike.

desperately that -- deftly watch the tone of j during the press conference. we are in a period we will see a hike in the fed move forward and utilize the balance to fine-tune their policy. neil: we hear data dependent. we will watch. there's an interesting development, they want to encrypt the police scanners. they might not follow what crime is going on. you might point to the mayor of chicago that this is by design. giaimo caldwell is concerned. is also here. ♪

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well, we fell in love through gaming. but now the internet lags and it throws the whole thing off. when did you first discover this lag? i signed us up for t-mobile home internet. ugh! but, we found other interests. i guess we have. [both] finch! let's go! oh yeah! it's not the same. what could you do to solve the problem? we could get xfinity? that's actually super adult of you to suggest. i can't wait to squad up. i love it when you talk nerdy to me. guy, guys, guys, we're still in session. and i don't know what the heck you're talking about. hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds,

and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. so i decided to go with golo and it's changed my life. when i first started golo and taking release, my cravings, they went away. and i was so surprised. you feel that your body is working and functioning the way it should be and you feel energized. golo has improved my life in so many ways. i'm able to stand and actually make dinner. i'm able to clean my house. i'm able to do just simple tasks that a lot of people call simple, but when you're extremely heavy they're not so simple. golo is real and when you take release and follow the plan, it works. >> with crime at an all-time high, if we start encoding

messages going across our radios the common element is listening to everything we do. this needed to get done for a long time. if police and fire at the ability to listen to it with encrypted messaging systems we've got to give it to the media too. neil: a new policy soon to be enacted in chicago, anything you hear on a police scanner will be encrypted. the notion is bad guys will know what is going on and maybe can come induce some nefarious things but the other side of the story is no one, certainly the media outside will know what is going on and a lot of people say that is what chicago mayor lori lightfoot wants. giano caldwell joins us now, does a hit job, which is why i

refuse to let him host my show. always good to see you. and i mean that. don't you salivate one moment. >> i will text you three times after this. neil: what do you make of it? >> the letter end of what you said in terms of what the mayor may desire to do which is whitewash media coverage about what has taken place, violence has increased under her watch and she's a soft on crime mayor supporting things like the first step act and being supportive of kim fox who has done a horrific job the people chicago. they don't want the media to be listening and because they hold her to accounting her policies and certainly we here at fox news do but local coverage runs the city of chicago and she's up for reelection and has a real battle on her hands to be

reelected mayor so why not whitewash coverage on that end, supply the media, to cherry pick the facts and not allow them to verify that. they listen in every day and they are listening in 24/seven. this would prevent them from doing so. i don't trust her at all, even though people think about that and consider that but if that was the case they would have done it a long time ago. a former us attorney would have considered that before she's running for reelection. neil: only because you have been so open about it your self, you lost your brother in chicago shooting, if this were in effect you would have no idea about a crime scene or what has happened.

what would change? in that environment, there would be a period of no one knowing what is going on. >> there is a lot that could change in those circumstances. people use the citizen apps. people in those local areas, they know they have to be cautious because these alerts come, shootings taking place. you could end of creating more havoc for people considering that information won't be out there. there is greater consideration to this beyond criminals possibly having a scanner and i'm not family with data showing there are criminals that have these scanners where they are doing this. i would think those are more sophisticated criminals like people robbing banks, they may

have that technology but a lot of crime in chicago isn't necessarily 1st °. it is more second degree homicide whereas crime of passion, people randomly shooting. i don't buy that so many criminals have access to this technology. neil: i know you want to ask, it's the holiday season, it is a difficult one for you and your family. how are you doing? >> christmas, thanksgiving was tough, june 24th my brother was murdered on the south side and that fell on thanksgiving day, have to deal with christmas eve. i am blessed to say i moved my youngest living brother to miami to live with me and i am protecting him with every fiber of my being to ensure not another family member of mine is slaughtered. it is tough. my birthday is 2 days after christmas. i will be 36, you are shocked and surprised i will be 36 but

i thank god that i have something, someone to care for my little brother to keep him safe, that is a christmas gift to me. the god i serve is a god of justice. neil: your christmas gift to the world, try to make sure the tragedy to your brother would never be repeated. you are a good friend. >> thank you, you are as well. neil: a little more after this. as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals.

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neil: the fixation after sam bankman-fried, put in a bahamas prison and looking at anyone and everyone associated not only with his company but those having to do anything with the technology in general.

big theme on capitol hill where you will find hillary vaughan. >> reporter: shark tank's kevin o'leary found himself in the hot seat today trying to fill in the blanks for lawmakers about ftx's bankruptcy that left millions without their money including o'leary. he named in a class-action lawsuit targeting himself and other celebs who got paid to endorse ftx including tom brady, larry david, even with star-studded endorsers, lawmakers are giving ftx a pass. >> a free pass because it is shiny and bright, venture capitalists think it might change the world or tv campaigns were witty and featured famous people especially when so many consumers are at risk of losing hard-earned money, that is before crypto we should in a new dimension of fraud. >> reporter: o'leary says he

was paid $18 million, he had one million dollars invested in ftx including $10 million in tokens he held in ftx wallets. he says all of that is lost and he has written it off but doesn't want ftx to give crypto a bad name. do you believe the potential benefits of crypto are so promising that we should accept weaker anti-money laundering rules? >> noca we should apply the same regular story structure we apply to existing trading, take issue with your concept that it makes it easier to do money laundering. currencies have been used for drug trafficking since the 60s and the american dollar when thrown out of a paper aircraft in a duffel bag. >> reporter: ftx's implosion has not stayed confined to ftx but other crypto exchanges, the top democrat on the senate banking committee telling the

today that all exchanges are on notice. neil: we want to go to charlie gasparino, just as you predicted this fanning out, just beginning to see it. charles: you are the real mister wonderful. just want to get that, he's not a bad guy and i've been writing about him as well because he's involved in this whole mess as a grand ambassador. i think there's two ways of looking at this, republicans have way of looking at it, democrats have a way of looking at it. democrats believe this is a function of lack of regulation. not a lot of oversight. and get certified by the securities and exchange commission.

it may be true but fraud and theft have been illegal since the beginning of time and you will see that debate going on about other exchanges about crypto in general. if you purchase crypto currency, that is overseas and should expect your money to be there and bernie madoff stall stuff. bernie madoff doing what he did, was investigating, the greatest ponzi scheme ever. regulation sounds good and if you start regulating these things, you might be improving their bad deeds because there's a lot of hidden stuff in all this crypto.

this debate we are having now for a while including as republicans take the one hundred eighth congress, i want to switch gears and talk about layoffs in wall street because everyone is talking about it, all my sources, for morgan stanley, bank of america, jpmorgan, goldman sachs, they are trying to avoid mass layoffs. we have 5% of the underperformers, probably laid off. we will see a vast reduction in bonuses as much as 50%. if you're in the m and a department you will get a lower

bonus, a large degree of attrition, trying to do jobs they think they can get away with it. that is most of the firms. there is one firm that is an exception to that and that is credit suisse for a lot of reasons we are reporting, it is a troubled bank. the credit default swaps went through the roof as people thought -- it is not troubled but they are going to -- it is troubled, but betting they would go under but they are not going to go under. they an act significant layoffs. a lot of those layoffs began this week. the junior staffers, the freshman class were laid off and those will be more significant than the 5% but as of now, wall street is saying we can muddle through this without taking out the hatchet

and start just taking people out but then again deal flow has to come back as we get lower interest rates and probably not have lower interest rates until next year. we will see what jerome powell says but as of now, back to you. neil: we have confirmation from goldman sachs, looking at cutting its bonus pool by at least 40%, the 3,000 member unit would include the 400 partners seeing their pay cut in half, there bonus pay, those bonuses often dwarf whatever they make. if you are cutting up to half, maybe more, could be a sign of things to come. stay with us.

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neil: we talked about those who try to pay for bad experiences and opportunities. gary sinise will be my special guest tomorrow. is the embodiment of that. not only a famous and award-winning actor but so loved the military and those who lost members come military families who lost members that he has made his cause helping them out but this latest undertaking should provide an opportunity for hundreds of such families to go to disney world, that takes the cake. hundreds of such families, a lot more he is up to. can't wait to hear what he is up to.

in the meantime keeping track of other developments including folks putting up higher prices, some are being creative, some are finding ways to get help in the process. >> reporter: go fund me, people raise money for all kinds of things on that website and as you might expect american generosity is spiking this season. the on orion -- online fundraiser, once every second. the company reporting 28 million people sent or received help on the side. go fund me ranking as the most generous state in west virginia, on making the top 5, go fund me, most successful fundraiser 2022, the ukraine drive led by ashton kutcher,

raising $37 million and as you mentioned at the top even regular americans, go for gas, groceries and baby formula for inflationary consumers. neil: it speaks to the times. thank you for that. in the meantime you heard about the problems airlines are having finding pilots and that is true. one airline in particular callaway to address that problem. start training its own. connell mcshane has a lot more from denver, colorado. >> reporter: frontier airlines has a new program, you don't need experience in the industry at all to get into it though the number of flight attendants applied, they want to become pilots.

25-year-old we met here, spent 3 years after graduating, working in investment banking and private equity but something was missing. >> it is a hard world to feel passionate about and i was looking for something else, stronger purpose. for me, the airline industry is exactly what i wanted. >> reporter: bryce and rolled in this flight school a few months back and a few years from now he will have all the certifications and flight experience he needs. when we sat down with the frontier ceo in denver he was telling us 70% of his hiring in the next year will come from this cadet program which was a change from the past. >> the majority came from regional airlines, having less

and less success in hiring pilots themselves and we looked at it as deciding whether to start our own sourcing. >> reporter: they can put them directly into an airbus, the carpet looks like the simulator you are looking at. starting salary is $100,000 a year. a lot of fun to check out this simulator. let me end with this. i want you to see our mutual friend, producer dan as he brought in for a landing in the simulator. a little bit bumpy to put it mildly. you couldn't feel it, the whole thing shakes when you come down but we are here in one piece. we will not be recommending dan for this program though i will say some 2,000 applicants have come in frontier airlines to solve the pilot shortage. neil: how much does it cost to participate? >> reporter: 90 grand. it is $90,000.

frontier gives a stipend which helps out and most people would work for them as pilots because they desperately need the pilots. he was going to go back to school and get his mba and that would be expensive so he would rather do this. so he will become a pilot. neil: seeing dan in a cockpit, i am not going to take this particular one. >> worries me seeing him behind the camera. neil: all right, thank you very much. my best and love to dan. speaking of the best, jackie deangelis joining the right now. loved jackie since she first joined us, very proud of her now, no doubt would be very proud of her. a new show is kicking off next month on this network, actually

this hour of my show, she stealing it from me but actually for something even better and bolder. she along with brian brumberg coming over from bloomberg, big-money show but what i love about all three of them, put their heart and soul into this, with the federal reserve, i could not be happier for you. i was thinking about your late dad, how do you feel about this? >> thank you. i want to say thank you to you and thank you to the business network. you may not realize it but you have been a huge mentor to me since i joined this network 31/2 years ago working with you, having conversations about business, see your work ethic. looking at you as a walking

encyclopedia. the farm here is really high and it has been honored to work with you and occasionally, it means so much to me. i wasn't -- wouldn't be in the running if it wasn't for the support i received from you. i want to say thank you so much. neil: many times you have been sick now and then and you were always there to cover. again, talk about work ethic, i get an extra hour for lunch. i now had a few hours between this show and by fox show and it is martini time and i was telling brian brandenberg i could be totally trashed but all kidding aside, the big issues you uncover on a big-money show our money, listening to what you are going to hear out of jerome powell.

>> wall street is exciting, and inflation was 17.1% moving in the right direction but, they also the pace of the hikes, that may very well be. we will see some headwinds, maybe the markets are getting a little bit ahead here. you have to see what happens. one thing sticks in my mind. in jackson hole, the labor market has to slip and what that means is we will see more people lose their jobs.

the consumer turnover, people stop spending as much as they had been, putting money, charges on plastic, these are big questions and we have to see where this goes in 2023. a little on the cautious side. we will see where we go from here. neil: look forward to the show, you had to overcome so much and never complained and never wind. i built a career on complaining and whining, you wouldn't hear me but i look forward to this. to put it in perspective, all of this starts on 23 january. the big-money show, you can catch jackie, taylor briggs coming over, we have a -- the bottom line, dagan mcdowell working with sean duffy at 6:00 pm. the evening at it is not

mcdonald, moved to 5:00 pm to accommodate that. all big changes coming up. when we say we have your back we mean it. now we have a lot more. >> thank you. neil: you should be excited. the pepperoni pizza, thank you, we have a lot. we have a feeling, just a feeling maybe jackie had something to do with that, stay with us. if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can see if it may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee. all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then work with professionals to assist your business with its forms and submit the application. go to getrefunds.com to learn more. who's on it with jardiance? ♪ ♪ we're the ones getting it done. we're managing type 2 diabetes and heart risk. we're on it with jardiance. join the growing number of people who are on it with the once-daily pill, jardiance. jardiance not only lowers a1c, it goes beyond to reduce the risk of cardiovascular death

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that's 1-800-217-3217. neil: a lot of people talk about banning tiktok for all sorts of reasons. very few walk and walk to start implementing that. in the case of utah banning tiktok from public devices, just to start, if my guest is right there will be others following up. the republican governor, beautiful state of utah, good to have you. >> thank you, great to be with you. we have known tiktok is a problem for a long time and decided to take action. neil: in the last hour, tiktok, as a threat, lot of young people don't see it that way. i was kidding with a commission member about that and how you

convince kids of that, 21-year-old boys who love tiktok and the chinese are spying on us, who isn't. why do you -- help me make this argument to them, see tiktok as different. >> there is a couple reasons. one we know, director ray has talked about we know that china is accessing this data, the chinese commonest party is accessing this data and intellectual property of us citizens and that should be problematic for everyone. the second piece of this is the algorithm piece, the danger of social media, especially tiktok. the chinese version of tiktok is different from the american version, it could be positive in the lives of young people but the way it is being used in utah and the united states is

not helping anyone. it is only making us dumber and worse off so i have kids the same as yours, these the conversations we are having, tiktok can be addicting, the algorithmic piece of that gets you deeper and deeper into whatever it is you are looking for, searching for, it is causing people to spend more time on their screens but from the use her standpoint, the governor's standpoint it really is a national security piece causing us to make this decision. neil: they are a unique case to themselves but how do you know others aren't doing the same thing? it is dangerous when you have a foreign power like china challenging us on everything but others do this. how do you distinguish? >> we know this is different.

we heard from the fbi, from the fcc the china is a distinct case and they can mandate the compulsory use of data and information. i will tell you, i've spoken about this and we will have a bill in the legislature. i'm worried about the research being done with social media and the distraction or worse, the problems it is causing with those at a certain age going through puberty as mental health problems skyrocket in the nation's schools and in the state of utah, access to social media in the classroom, trying to give kids a leg up in getting away from what is important. neil: always good having you

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the global drone market is $58 billion industry. volatus aerospace provides integrated drone solutions for commercial, industrial, defense applications and public safety, maximizing the potential of drone technologies around the world. volatus aerospace. neil: all right. here we go. maybe the seventh and final rate hike of the year. to charles payne. charles: they say seven is a lucky number. we'll see. thanks a lot, neil. good afternoon, everyone. i'm charles payne. this is "making money." breaking right now this is the moment investors have been waiting for since november 2.

jay powell pushed back on the notion of pausing ever pausing. after the october crushing there was a bear market rally. will jay powell lay it on thick. will he crush the enthusiasm again? or will he acknowledge a slowing economy, slowing inflation, even the risk of a a fed mistake? a powerful line-up, phil blancato, nancy tengler, keith fitz-gerald. will shore up your portfolio. we have the man himself at 2:30. danielle dimartino booth and what they expect to hear and what they expect from the market. sam bankman-fried in notoriously overcrowded bahamas jail. they are wasting no time prosecuting bitcoin players. let's go to d.c. and grady trimble. reporter: charles, the fed is raising the fed funds rate 50 basis point's expected to a