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neil: we are in and out of session lows, major averages down 2% or more. week retail sales weaker than thought, 0.6%, the lowest consumer activity on the shopping front in almost a year and the fed continues to want to keep it at 2% inflation rate, 7% inflation rate right now. a lot more rate hikes but in this environment the only place safe for the time being seems to be part of the bond market to which a lot of mortgages are attached. the yield has gone under 3.5%. homebuilder stock is up not just on this but lower mortgage rates. we have seen four consecutive lower mortgage rates. i stress there are limited options here. lauren simonetti, take a look

at where we stand here and where we are going. lauren: rates, retail sales and recession is a big one. one of the reasons the 10 year yield is down, recession fears certainly get. if we look at retail sales, really key, holiday shopping month, november, you sorry tale sales falling a sharp 6%. that's a sign the consumer is being impacted by higher costs, credit card balances jumping 15% as the fed pushes the cost to borrow higher and commits to keeping rates higher for longer. as it stands now, 63% of americans are living paycheck to paycheck, this finds half of earners making one hundred thousand dollars a year are strange. that makes sense because you have inflation at 7% plus most americans wages are only up 5% on the year so you are

underwater trying to make the dollar go further. the response from supermarkets because they feel the cost of food is pushing lower-priced items, private labels. kroger is big into this. their brand sales are up 10% this year. the german chain selling house brands, mentally popular. the good news is once you ship to an affordable alternative you usually don't notice much difference and don't switch back to the brand names that have a hard time recovering the sales they might do the same. neil: back with luke lloyd, the widespread nature of this and the fact that average folks are beginning to feel 8 of 10 of them, whether they are acting

on this, what are your thoughts? >> there was this recession manufactured by the federal reserve, that's not right. this is manufactured by the federal government and the federal reserve is trying to fix it. a scary question everybody should be asking is whether the administration is ignorant they are having. politicians have been away from main street so long they have no idea what it feels like. do they not care about main street? they care about themselves and maintaining power and control. i think it is a combination of both. i grew up in small-town ohio, 6000 people, almost all blue collar jobs. i'm in cleveland and can tell you people are not just living paycheck to paycheck. of people living paycheck to paycheck we wouldn't see credit

card debt skyrocketing. people are living on somebody else's paycheck. i went politicians to admit they messed up. i never heard a politician say i was wrong. every policy of this administration has tried to pass or has passed goes against everything you learn in economics 101. only made life worse, time to wake up. neil: whatever you make of what congress and the white house is or isn't doing, a lot of people don't like it's strategy especially when we heard jerome powell emphasize you would like to get inflation at 2%, roughly 7%, it indicates more rate hikes to come. what do you think? >> it is crazy to me, just buttoned it up, the growing disconnect between what the fed believes they are messaging and what is happening out there on

main street in the markets, this divergence in his denial of the data that has been coming out and in september, it will be around 4. 6%, affective rates 4.4%. since then we've seen consumer prices, two months of consumer prices coming in, they are not acknowledging it. i don't know if it is messaging from washington but there is a disconnect and you look at the great recession, 2,007, it is frequent what happens is we've got a bit of euphoria and the period of denial, we are in that denial period where average american isn't doing great but messaging from washington, we are holding on,

holding on because we are spending a little more and in essence he is drying out expenditures, what is pushing the fed to make these moves which to me they have flogged a dead horse, i believe they are going to overshoot based on the data. the bond markets don't see inflation at 3.5%, looking at 2. 3% at the pce level, that is, billions of dollars pricing in. no offense, one or 12 members. neil: expenditures, it is a read among the favorites to gauge what inflation is looking

at, i am wondering if you advised those who say surely with the dow closing in on one thousand points it is overdone. major averages down double digits, nasdaq down 33%. now is the time. might not catch it exactly right but now is the time. what do you tell them? >> i advise people to be patient. we've gotten used to not being patient for 13 years straight from 2008-2009-2022, interest rate 0%, it always works out. interest rates are rising, taking liquidity out of the system and it is a deeper recession that i think is coming and deeper than people think, you have to be patient and have cash on the sidelines, sometimes outside equity markets. 3.5% or 4% makes a lot of sense. i think it does and at the same time the bond market and stock

market, there's a reason the long-term bonds are up one% and stock market down 2% to 3%, people are looking for that safety. you might get some appreciation on your bonds going forward. every recession gets quicker and quicker. it can't go on forever. it gets quicker because the government prints more money, stimulates the economy, we can't keep doing that, this is a time we need to take trips off the table and take liquidity off the table and access off the table. neil: maybe we are not done yet. we will continue pursuing that with the dow down 950 points, other averages down as well, the nasdaq particularly hard-hit, 3.5% and anything technology related in an environment where interest rates continue going on. it is probably an understatement today, then there's the wildcard, the

government shutting down, the latest on that side of the story in washington. >> reporter: the senate could vote on the interim spending bill today but the bigger concern comes next week with the omnibus spending bill. it is unclear if the senate can get 10 gop members to break the filibuster and pass the bill before december 23rd, that's the new deadline. >> always works out there are 10 of us go along with what is mostly a democratic maneuver, that's disappointing. that is an excuse for earmarking, budgets, and all the stuff that happens every year since i have been here. >> reporter: house minority leader kevin mccarthy attacked richard shelby yesterday, shall be at the top republican on senate appropriations committee, negotiating the omnibus bill. mccarthy wants a short-term bill so gop-controlled house can dictate spending terms next year.

>> every buddy has their own opinion. is running for speaker and you understand that. putting a coalition of republicans together but we all know it is the best thing to do to fund the government when you are here, whether you retire or have 5 more years. >> reporter: mccarthy is struggling to get votes to become speaker. he opposes the omnibus, mccarthy contends his position is not tied to the speaker's race and efforts to secure the votes for skeptics. >> you have a 30 or 40 seat majority, disavow us from the idea you had a 40 seat majority that this is not political you would say let's figure out a way to fund the government. >> what argument that i propose? democrats didn't do their job or not going to jam this right before christmas. >> minority leader mitch mcconnell supports the omnibus

but only if it is worked out by december 22nd. mcconnell 22. mcconnell says he will pivot to a short-term bill which runs into the new year. neil: what i love about you, you have a knack for alienating both sides. that means you are doing your job. good for you. you are a human being as well. we've got the dow down 924 points so we are down a little bit from the worst of the day, don't get ahead of yourself. we heard sam bankman-fried was arrested and everything associated with him, government lawyers, now they are calling for regulations on crypto. they've gone beyond the exchange he once ran after this.

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neil: the selloff goes on. a little green box in the upper left portion of the screen, second box, and upgrade today, and a strong dividend, one of the only, the only gain among the dow 30. keeping an eye on that but technology stocks under the gun. at&t, verizon, morgan stanley downgrading that. one firm, a very volatile consumer. that is probably an understatement describing the market but also describing the pylon of anything crypto since the arrest of sam bankman-fried there has been a push on capitol hill to go after this technology and the people behind it and that had some folks worried. susan has that side of the story. susan: after one of the largest

corporate bankruptcies consensus is building across dc for more crypto regulation, we have a new bipartisan bill by liz warren, the new bill puts common sense rules in place to kos crypto money laundering loopholes and protect national security and arguing it is suspect organizations and individuals that use crypto. >> the preferred tool, or rogue states to launder money. >> alto testifying in the ftx hearing, short take investor kevin o'leary who argued the problem is not crypto. >> since the 60s, the american dollar was thrown out in a duffel bag.

it was used by bad actors all the time. >> reporter: that exchange across social media but in reality there is little chance the bill will pass in the final weeks of the current congress, lame-duck session. they have been pushing crypto regulations for the past year and 1/2 trying to pave the way for them to be used like digital cash instead budget low goals. the ftx collapse, sam bankman-fried in jail behind bars in the bahamas until his extradition hearing on february 8th but breaking news, the insider whistleblower, newly released documents suggest whistleblower was a top ftx executive, the ceo of ftx digital, one of the subsidiaries warned bohemian authorities of the transfer of cash he noticed from the crypto exchange of bankman-fried's

personal hedge fund, alameda. that might be where it comes from. neil: great reporting. let's get the read on this. gorman, former sec enforcement attorney. one thing i noticed, the dow, go ahead and regulate this. you know more about this than i will ever know. we have seen many regulators, regulations, was that the problem? >> thank you for having me. this is one of the great frauds and tragedies of our time, a huge mess. it is not a great mystery to figure out what happened. when you open up the firm and

so-called exchange what you find is nothing isn't going to run millions of dollars worth of trades on any given day. what nothing does is, what really looks like a ponzi scheme and that is the bottom line. neil: i saw the regulators and the lawyers who gathered for a press conference spelling out the arrest, a lot of back patting and thing like that but didn't all of this dissolve because of screwups and revelations for the company insider and not for many grandiose regulatory push to find out what is going on. >> there's been efforts to regulate crypto.

there is also a lot of controversy about what crypto is. something crypto is nothing but a mickey mantle baseball card. others think it is valuable. whatever your view of that is, no doubt it is a commodity, no doubt it is getting traded and the investing public is putting millions of dollars, there are regulations, a lot easier if you are a fraudster. the bottom line, the public is not getting protected here and you can't run a billion-dollar operation with no internal control and no disclosure or structure by hoping they will do the right thing. it doesn't work that way. our history demonstrated that. neil: if you will indulge one

last question, learning a lot from you. this notion of a push to overdo it and chase down anything but bitcoin itself has absorbed a lot of these body blows. what do you make of that? >> bitcoin itself seems to have regulated itself and that is a good thing. i am in favor, a lot of people are. if you can do it, once you start seeing a billion-dollar trading operation and bringing money in from a smalltime investor who thinks they can become an overnight millionaire by investing in this, the risks

are too high for the public and they need basic regulation for the trading platform. there's plenty of examples out there, the cftc side, that they can copy and set up quickly. unfortunately it will be a while but hopefully you can come up with some regulation to protect the public so they will put their money in and see it go to the bahamas and finance a beach vacation. neil: there's more to it than that. thank you very much. in the meantime talking about many along the east coast of the united states, monster storm is barreling down. the latest on that because i think the map is cool. ♪

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neil: this is what this storm is all about. you are hearing in the northeast fears of ice and snow. down south in louisiana it is about tornadoes and a lot of damage. the latest from robert ray at fox weather. >> it is a double whammy here, 3 or 4 miles from downtown new orleans. a warehouse that was a microbrewery, just made the repairs, finished the repairs, put this new roof on here and all of the cinderblock is destroyed.

why did they make those repairs? they were hit by a tornado in march and again another tornado destroys this area. you see this video, the surrounding area in metro new orleans where many homes are destroyed, businesses are destroyed and this system that originally came from the west coast, created the snow and 2 dozen tornadoes across the south. 3 people have lost their lives in the state of louisiana, one of them an 8-year-old boy, and the person here in metro new orleans. i spoke to the owner of this microbrewery. he did not want to go on camera. he's very upset. you can't blame him. two tornadoes came down, two separate times and this one before the holidays. he tells me now, his business

is a total loss, they recovered from the first tornado and he says insurance is not going to touch them because he had to sync all of his personal money before insurance could reverse from the first tornado. it is so uncommon for tornadoes to come into the new orleans area in december. strange times here and you got to feel these folks going through this especially families and friends, lost loved ones, and the system tracking on the east, manhattan, new york, metro, freezing rain and snow this weekend. neil: incredible to appreciate this is part of the same

system. >> it is amazing and that is the thing. the system came from california moving over the sierras into the rockies and the gulf of mexico come massive body of water and the cold front in the gulf of mexico is a recipe, hell on earth which you see for these people here a few miles from new orleans. the mississippi river and new orleans downtown over there, the second time a tornado has created a path right through this area. there are blue tarps still recovering from the tornado in late march. you take the hurricanes that have come in the past few years, it is phenomenal.

these people, the spirits, this business owner not in good shape. i wish he had come on camera but can't blame him for not wanting to. he is heartbroken. his business is gone. just try to figure out what he is going to do with his livelihood. hundreds of thousands of dollars or perhaps more and now it is reduced to ruin. the aluminum and everything else. neil: thank you for updating us on that. has robert indicated this is massive and includes the same system that is now pounding and will be pounding the northeast and the east coast. amy: this is a coast-to-coast story. that is how the low-pressure system started to form and came up the coastline. here's what the storm is doing. a lot of colors on the map, the green is just plain rain, snow on the north side is blue and

pink, not so pretty in pink because that means ice which we have seen come out of the allegheny mountains. we start to see that changeover. they are still an ice storm warning but mostly we are focusing on this winter storm warning that brings snow accumulating to pennsylvania, upstate new york at higher elevations. the fox model, new high resolution model. what is happening in the major cities on the i-95 core door, all plain rain. the reason this storm doesn't produce snow, it is pulling air off of the ocean, in the upper 40s and though 50s, mild air, north of 287 you see the blue, high resolution model picking up the details and accumulating snow in northwest new jersey and the hudson valley. it won't until they turn northwest that we see

accumulation in those spots but plain rain for major cities on the east coast. is wet, nasty, no fun to be in but the accumulating snow happens here, highest elevations are the catskills, adirondacks, the great white mountains in vermont, new hampshire. if you are waiting for a white christmas we are ten days away. will the changeover? any opportunity? that rain event we are seeing today into tomorrow could be replaced by massively cold air. look at this arctic blast coming in. late next week we are looking at infiltration from arctic air in the north, takes over the central plains, spreads into the northeast and that is your chance. if you want to snow, a winter storm as possible. on the leading edge of this arctic air. does it set up over the great plains? more to the northeast, those details have to be worked out. a piece of energy that could turn his cold air into snow is in the pacific. this is our job the next couple days at fox weather, detailing

this out. grab your umbrellas and be ready for rain on the i-95 core door. we will sit and wait for snow. cold next week. neil: thank you very much, look forward to you keeping us posted on this. summer interested in what you are finding out. in the meantime we are finding out the market can give or take away. we are up a couple hundred points. it was when jerome powell started talking after that, we have been careening. it doesn't help matters that four major countries including european central bank of norway and switzerland followed up point hikes and they are all on the notion that central banks the world over are pushing the global economy into recession and they are overdoing it. they created their own frankenstein. people are scared. more after this. ♪

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neil: we see the market selloff, big losses, the nasdaq, the dow 30 stocks, verizon buoyed by recommendation and the fact that dividend looks promising. outside of that, maybe some homebuilders looking at the notion that real estate might be looking up because mortgage rates have been following at those are rates the fed itself does not set unless you look at the short end of the curve, 3

and 6 month bills and industrial -- adjustable-rate mortgages. they move one way but 10 year notes and tenure bonds, the yield on that is coming down, now they are 3.5% so that could be the fifth week of lower mortgage rates and whether that could be a boom at least in real estate. i want to go back to luke lloyd. what do you think? >> real estate, there is no supply, demand is coming down because of interest rates. i talked to you 3 or 4 months ago and said real estate might be one of the strongest parts of the economy out of different parts of the economy. interest rates are higher, supply of the real estate market will definitely impact housing prices. you've seen it come down 10% or 15%. it will not come down much farther, maybe 5% or 10%, but

holistically, 15% or 20% as a whole, the real estate market is segmented, different parts of the united states, different parts of the world will react differently in certain situations depending on supply and demand about real estate is not a horrible place to be but i will wait a little longer. neil: where do you put your money? your if the about housing, stocks, you layout depressing case, not everyone would agree, maybe not now but -- >> can't wait to be optimistic. it is very possible that next year will be the most seen, one of the most seen, everybody knew about but many people ignored or moved past it and a lot of people will get themselves positioned in their portfolio because they have been in a recession already. everyone trying to be a contrarian investor. there's a time and place to be

contrarian but one place we have a recession in the first place isn't only because of inflation but the expected lifestyle in today's world. cell phones, social media, they changed consumer behavior. amazon packages, everyone has multiple amazon packages, keeping up with the joness and lived the life cycle. you can't always do that. that's why the recession is getting delayed and everyone is talking about the consumer being a strong. everyone keep spending money on credit card debt. you have to position your portfolio in areas that are resilient to cutting back and spending. it will happen next year. one of the stocks we picked up was canada goose, expensive jackets charging $900 for a jacket. the rich got richer, the biggest divide in history happen, the middle class got screwed, the upper-middle-class

became upper-class, lower middle-class became lower and that continues to happen. the top 1% conform a $900 jacket. it got cut in half and that is when stocks become attractive. neil: do you think jerome powell wants a recession and made up his mind, this is my center and focus and my war and if it means i take down the economy, so be it. >> we need it and jerome powell would agree. we lived in a lot of excess. we printed $7 trillion, recession is part of the economic cycle. the fed has no idea where the funds rate is. they are keeping rates higher longer to see what happens. i'm not confident we are in a perfect spot. the fed said the target is 2%,

we are at 7%. we have a long way to go but it is not what everybody should want. in the single digits, not 0%. with all the government spending you need to ask if we live in a capitalist system. it seems controlled by the government and the fed. we live in a socialist system masqueraded as capitalist because of how big the government is. neil: you are not a government fan. you've been a big help, appreciate that and we will see what happens and see if we shake this off, the start of something big. luke lloyd on all of that. we are 6 days from the end of title 42, a lot of cases, illegals are adjudicated on the mexican side. once they do it doesn't end. after this.

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neil: title 42, many of those on the border are processed on the mexican side of the border. december 21st, processing, the us side of the border that is a big worry for my next guest, republican congressman wondering about a surge that is well in place, it is out of control once title 42 was no longer in place. what happens in that moment? >> the crisis turns into an absolute catastrophe.

8 months in a row with 2,000 border crossers, 20 months over 150,000. one hundred 60 countries by folks represented across the border illegally. 28,000 pounds of fentanyl in president biden's presidency which is enough to kill every american. to opioid overdoses last year. it is really bad, the worst it has been in history. neil: do you hear any talk about the administration extending that. >> president biden was in el paso, he had better things to do. what is going to happen, things will get so bad that even the middle and some on the center left will demand some action

and institute trump era policies like the mexico policy. neil: new york mayor eric adams, 17,000 or so migrants made their way to new york and needs and requested $1 billion to analyze the administration. this would get into zillions of dollars, democratic mayors made the same request with thousands that came their way. what did you make of it? >> very typical of far left politician to think money falls from the sky. $27 trillion is a bad idea considering we have 40-year high inflation measures. the federal government should cut off any city that is a sanctuary city, if we fly migrants all over the country,

we should focus them on sanctuary cities, nancy pelosi's home in san francisco, chuck schumer's mansion in new york and president biden's beach house in delaware. neil: a lot of people interested in a back and forth who the next speaker of the house would be, looks like kevin mccarthy for a while, doesn't have the 218 votes. where are you? would you support him leading republicans in the house? the republican caucus has 222 members and we voted one hundred 88-30 one for kevin mccarthy to be the next speaker. as a rule, we will go out there and we should be voting for the person who was nominated. that way you cut out the democrat. they do the same to us. they didn't ask for any republican input when nancy pelosi was elected in january of 20 one but you are right. if you can't get the 218 you

can't become the next speaker. i'm fascinated to see what will happen. i hope we can iron things out and look forward to doing the business of the people but we will find out january 3rd. neil: are you looking at the 2024 race and how it is shaping up, donald trump has announced, he should something today that looked like a card campaign to raise money but i don't know to what degree, dressed as a superhero, a lot of people in the party are frustrated that he's not the future. do you agree? >> clearly after november 8th ron to santos is pulling stars on the rocks. he won what used to be a purple state by 19 percentage points and there were 6 consistence congressional districts and republicans swept them. there was a red wave limited to certain areas. in new york we did well, california, florida. in national polls, ron desantis

is leading donald trump, his policies were excellent, we have two heavyweight superstars in the republican party. neil: we will have more than that. >> those two are the big bulls in the china shop. it is either going to be our nominee, i will make a prediction it will be ron desantis or donald trump. neil: always a pleasure, hope you have a merry christmas, good seeing you. you heard a lot of talk about how all of this is buffeting average folks but talk about small businesses, 9/10 said we will have a devil of a time surviving. charles payne heard that and decided i want to hear from you, you will as well. he is up next. o make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen...

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neil: all right. think of where we were yesterday repeatedly saying where we are right now. it was just about now we found out indeed the federal reserve as expected would hike rates half a percent. markets were okay about that. jerome powell started talking hinting they were not anywhere done. the markets tanked. they continue to tank. the dow down 884 points. all the other market averages down as well. they cannot see an end in sight. so far neither can we. bye-bye. >> this is a fox business special presentation, small business survival. here is your host,