damn you too much sun! you just search your prescription in the singlecare app, show your coupon to your pharmacist... best of all, singlecare is free to use. marty it's time to go. i have a story to tell! check the singlecare price today! >> the vast majority of the conference will support him whether the first ballot were 10th ballot. >> nobody has 218 votes which is the magic number. maybe it will take a few ballots to shake that up. >> i suspect 10 to 15 members will vote against him on the first ballot. neil: they all seem to be an agreement. i am neil cavuto and you are watching coast-to-coast. the big moment, the house of representatives, whether republicans can rally around a leader.

kevin mccarthy hopes he's that leader but he needs 218 votes to do so. there are 344 representatives present so you need half of that plus one. that is because right now we do have a congressman, who died after won of fourth term. it is down 430. say that again? aishah is on that with the latest developments. i apologize for that. tell me where this drama stands now. >> reporter: what you are watching is they are going through the list of people who were nominated and the votes are being read out loud. these are not yes or no votes but votes by name, going down the list of each member and asking them who they are voting for for speaker. kevin mccarthy is expected to lose this first round of

ballots. that is a historic situation. paul go tsar nominated andy bis who mccarthy's opponents plan to vote for instead of mccarthy which will send this to a second round of voting for the first time in nearly 100 years. another interesting note from our producer who is sitting inside the house chamber, representative lauren boebert nominated jim jordan to which there were audible gasps in the room and whisperings from the democrats on the other side. this moment has been building for quite a few months as there have been rumors this could happen but it came to a head during a gop conference meeting that sort of blue up. a lot of tense moments in this conference meeting.

house freedom caucus members held a press conference to tell reporters that mccarthy would not accept their deal and we have some sound if we could go ahead and play from representative scott perry. >> our final offer and he comes out and says it is a personal wish list. he requested that from us. he requested that. we said we can get you to 218 with this. he stood up and shook their hands and i won't do it. and here we are. >> reporter: they feel they were fooled. they feel they were told by mccarthy to bring them things they wanted to see happen which they did and mccarthy told them no deal. i will say in the last 24 hours mccarthy made some major concessions. he offered a brand-new rules package which is what his opponents wanted including the controversial policy that would

have allowed any 5 members to basically call a vote to remove the speaker at any time. that's a lot of power for any group of 5 members but that wasn't good enough for some of these opponents. here's mccarthy in the negotiations this morning. >> we have worked together to develop rules that empower all members but we are not empowering certain members over others. last night i was presented the only way to have 218 votes, if i provided certain members with certain positions, certain gavels, certain budgets. >> reporter: that was mccarthy pushing back and saying i'm not going to budge and we are going to walk to the floor and vote and he was well prepared to not have enough votes to become speaker in the first round. some folks out there, you heard from newt gingrich, former

house speaker who said this has become the greatest crisis for the gop in some decades as we now watch what happens next, as they go from member to member asking them who they are voting for by name. neil: she was speaking, we are learning 5 republicans have indeed voted against kevin mccarthy. i believe he could lose only four, anything over that means he would not get this first round of voting so it appears it will go to a second round, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh round but if indeed it is true that 5 republicans voted against him he won't have that 218. we have a major selloff going on. has less to do with what is happening on the house floor and more to do with what is happening to technology, not all technology. lauren seminary has the latest.

>> reporter: the same theme going on with the house, starting the new session, the new year on wall street, the first trading day, look at these losses. apple is a big player, member of the dow, the nasdaq, it was cut to neutral, price target one hundred 40 down from one hundred 40, they blame to disruption at the main factory in china but that plan is back at 90% production. wall street is not convinced. many have this report from the nikkei news. apple has notified several suppliers to build fewer components for the air pod, the watch and the math book for the first quarter because demand is down. now you have apple shares lower and they lost that $2 trillion valuation. another bad day, down 15%, one hundred one share. they came out with delivery

numbers for the fourth quarter and all of last year, record numbers but not enough so here are the numbers for the fourth quarter, just over 405,000 shift but analysts are looking north of 420,000 for the year. one. 3 million, sounds great, 40% annual growth, elon musk said i want 50% growth. next catalyst for tesla in the earnings report at the end of the month and then there is this story. dear to my heart. equinox, the luxury jim facing major backlash for their new campaign called we don't speak january. it bans new members from signing up on january 1st because they don't want people coming to their gyms just to fulfill their new year's resolution. neil: get over yourselves. neil: that is business they are turning away. lauren: they are staying loyal to their brand. neil: who says what the

majority do? lauren: i don't make new year's resolutions because i don't keep them. the first week of january and then i was done. that's their brand. i think the membership is $380 to go to any equinox in the world. neil: to tell people to get in shape, don't soil us by coming by. don't have time for that. lauren: thank goodness the gyms won't be super crowded. i'm not taking sides even though it looks like i am. i don't go to any jim. i haven't had a gym membership in decades. neil: thank you very much. back with us, rob luna, the big hedge fund manager, fox news

contributor, the gym issue not withstanding, don't want to go there but i want to go to the selloff and what is propelling it. as lauren pointed out, most technology -- tesla which i consider technology stock and apple, i am wondering whether that is twisted. >> the stocks were not just leading the economy but the indices. over many years such major parts of the dow, nasdaq, the s&p, even if you own an index fund you own a lot of technology stocks. the market is looking for new leadership. even if inflation sticks around, 1970-72 stocks were up 50%, lost 50% in the 2 years following. there are places to make money in this market but as jpmorgan said, asked what the market would do, it will fluctuate and the market is as volatile in

2023 as it was last year. neil: when you look at the figures it is staggering, $12 trillion in market value was lost last year representing the largest drawdown since 2,000 one. i'm wondering, do you repeat something like that this year? it would seem that that would be hard to do. we've had history, double digit losses one after the other, that would seem to be a pretty big punch and follow-up punch. >> i don't think that will happen. what we are seeing last year was a lot of the excess of the multiple being washed out of the market. we been in unprecedentedly low interest rates for a long time that allowed a higher multiple to be put on these companies. interest rates going up, being an alternative to just investing in stocks. a lot of that premium got

washed away and it is more of a show me market. this first-quarter earnings report coming out from companies will be one of the most important corners we have had in a decade and i want to agree with jonathan's point in terms of new leadership. people have to start looking at the smaller, more undiscovered names because in 1999, ibm, cisco, intel, those old leaders got washed away and that paved the way for names like amazon, don't expect the big leaders to lead us out of this mess. it will be new names. neil: for every market comeback, there are guys making a comeback, don't know who they will be but jerome powell will have a lot of say as to who they are, how they emerge and how strongly they emerge. i wonder if he still pursues the aggressive rate hike strategy where the results be damned, i'm going to stick to fighting inflation even if it

means bringing honor recession or continued market selloff. >> most americans, most business owners feel we've been in recession for quite some time. the rate hikes in 2022 were historical, 4% rate hikes in terms of the worst year for treasuries on record. so much of what happens in 2023 depends not even on wall street but washington, not only jerome powell but spending in dc. inflation in the 70s, all eyes not just on wall street but washington in terms of what happens with rate hikes, spending in washington as well. neil: homebuilders did badly this past year but not as badly as every other category. that was the signed that many think the selloff or fears of a meltdown were overdone. i know you don't play the real estate game but is there something to read into that but i am not saying it held its own but it held its own better

compared to others. i wonder what that might mean because in prior selloffs you had real estate tanking. >> real estate is interesting. when you look at it, there's a lot of real demand. the millennial generation, largest generation in us history now of homebuying age, looking to buy homes and when you look at most of the publicly traded homebuilders, let's call it 300 to $800,000 range. after-$800,000 range. after 2008-9 blackstone, those became new competitions, there's a supply demand issue i don't see writing itself for quite a few years. especially in that lower end mid range market, those names have continued to do well, the upper end you see getting crushed. they are more tied to the stock market so until that turns around the upper end will get hit.

neil: what do you think of that? >> location location location, that's always the rules of real estate. we learned investors can't get in over their heads. the lesson in 2,008-9 wasn't the people bought a house but they bought more house than they could afford. people are less leveraged this time around, but if you continue to see interest rates spike, affordability when it comes to homes go down and real estate suffers as well. neil: i prematurely said goodbye, i was lucky enough to get you twice on the show and that's a great way to start the new year even though it is not a great new year for stocks. have a good one and we look forward to chatting with you again. we are so focused on the florida house that we forget the senate started things off today. mitch mcconnell, longest serving party leader in a major house of government certainly in this country but it is interesting, edward lawrence is coming up, to talk about where

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neil: all eyes on the house of representatives and who will be the next speaker of the house could drag on quite a while but attention is in the senate particularly with mitch mcconnell, the longest-serving leader of a political party in the united states senate. that is neither here nor there. he will be with the president of the united states tomorrow in kentucky touting that infrastructure measure. edward lawrence at the white house with more. thank you for your great work, and all tapes destroyed. there is no proof that you were ever here. but go ahead. >> reporter: your other producers, their backs are hurting today, they were carrying me through it last week but the unusual pair you will see tomorrow, president biden and mitch menorah like --

minor leader mitch mcconnell in kentucky along with the democratic governor there. mcconnell's office tells fox news correspondent mark meredith the senator really wants to make sure he secures his role in how much money he brought to kentucky, they are bringing one. $6 billion in federal grant money for kentucky so upon the president's return, from his vacation, why would he be seen with mcconnell? >> why is that significant to see you with mcconnell? >> president biden: everybody wants to contribute something. >> reporter: white house official says the trip will kick off a weeklong administration blanketing various cities promote the promoted -- to promote the plan of government spending. the president weeking today this year companies who choose to build clean construction project like solar and wind right here in america will see

tax credits, helping create thousands of good paying jobs in the clean energy economy, you see that with tax increases and a recession i had according to 2 thirds of economists, 23 of the largest banks in the united states, the company will pay a 15% base corporate tax, the american gas association warned a new tax on natural gas will increase gas bills at home about 17% possibly. a new tax cut imported gas or oil coming into the country, and the price of gas has risen for the past 7 days, now more than $0.12 more than a week ago. experts are saying the gas trend will continue. remember gas prices spiked the inflation. as of right now they are trying to get back under control. neil: thank you. no one was working harder last week when you were. that applies to a lot of things.

let's go to greg. we are getting word it does not look like the first time will be the charm for kevin mccarthy, does not have the votes. we go down to at least a second vote, first time we've seen that in a hundred years. greg and i covered that then. the wall street journal chief economic -- what to make of all this. happy new year, great seeing you. i do want to get into detail what you want to talk about, the environment for republicans and addressing spending but this leadership battle, it is showing a lot of divisions, isn't it? >> it is. think of the last 2 years, remarkable amount of legislation got past, we had the chips act, bipartisan infra-structure act, the inflation reduction act through a partyline vote, the gigantic omnibus bill a few weeks ago.

that shows you can get a lot done with unified control and a certain number of senators willing to cross lines. the next two years will be different. not only the house of representatives under the control of republicans so they have the ability to block almost anything biden wants to do legislatively but as we are learning today, their control is extremely narrow which essentially means the most obstinate faction of the republicans in the house of representatives can hold everything up. that includes things like the debt ceiling. that's the second half of 2023, not the first half but it means there's a risk of severe dislocation and fiscal policy in the financial markets because of the shape, the current partisan makeup of the congress. neil: whatever republicans can wrangle together they only have a 10 vote edge in the house,

they don't have the senate. you can see whatever they pass along could be dead on arrival. i get the old line that markets like gridlock but will they like that? especially if the house is getting spending under control if that comes true, republicans keep their word and it stops? >> good question. markets like gridlock because they don't like either party to be too activist and spending a lot of money and raising taxes. that could still be true. they will by and large like that. in theory they out to like it more now because we have a bad inflation problem. looking to the federal reserve to fix this problem, they raised rates a lot and plan to raise them some more and will until they keep inflation down but it is helpful to have fiscal policy pushing the same direction as monetary policy and that has not been the case

the last couple years. going beyond president biden's big stimulus billion 2020 one there have been a variety of executive orders in bills that further expand deficits and spending including this omnibus a week or 2 ago and markets are rather like the prospect of nothing like that passing in the next 2 years because that would slow the economy down and reduce the heating problem, the fed is obligated to address with high interest rates. neil: if the fed could slow the pace of interest rate hikes there is an argument to be made that investors who are battle scarred might vote for that. >> i think they would. that said, investors have to get out of this mentality of the last 40 years that the primary aim of the fed is to avoid recession. that was only true when inflation was under control of 2%, inflation is too high right now. the reason surveys like the 1 wall street journal just

published find such high expectation is economists take the fed at its word that it will do what it takes to get inflation down. that means tightening the screws on the economy, hope and employment slows and that means recession. if that recessionary pressure comes from the fiscal policy makers cutting things instead, that means interest rates, it doesn't mean a stronger economy or lower risk of recession. i'm not sure i would take much comfort from the possibility of the fed not raising rates. neil: everyone expects that eventually they don't take jerome powell and his word and are disappointed when he echoes his anti-inflation stance. they feel eventually he's got to pivot. he's going to get nervous, he sees what is happening to the markets and the numbers going south fast. i don't see him pivoting but you are the expert. what do you think? >> this fed like all other

feds, i've watched many federal reserve chairman for a long time, is data dependent. they have a view of the economy but they will adjust it as data evolves. the fed's a few hours inflation is too high and the temporary stuff fall out of the numbers, it will still be too high, in the 4% range and the only way to sustainably eliminate the problem is takeover overheating the economy, at ground 0, the labor market, hard reality is enormous hopes and dreams of everybody on wall street that the fed will be pivoting soon, there is nothing in the data saying they will. the jobless claims numbers are still very low, very important number coming up friday. i would focus not on what the increase in payrolls will be, look at the hourly wage number.

is there a path to the fed pivoting? liz: that was a 5% clip year over year. >> it tipped up to 5.5, the last number. they need the number closer to 4%. we are a long way from that. we are not going in the right direction. neil: always appreciate your time, wall street journal chief economics commentator making sense of stuff that is crazy. they are going to have another vote to determine who will lead the house of representatives. it does not appear on the first vote that it will be kevin mccarthy.

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neil: sam bankman-fried, connell, should spell out what is happening today? >> reporter: got here short time ago and we expect sam bankman-fried to plead not guilty, his arraignment will be taking place at the top of the hour, that's half an hour from now. back to the hectic scene we saw short time ago, spf made his arrival, his mom, the stanford law professor barbara fried, i didn't see that happen.

and headed to the courtroom of district court judge lewis kaplan. ronnie abrams, assigned as a judge of the case recused herself because her husband advised sam bankman-fried's company, bankman-fried's lawyer filed a motion asking the judge to redact the names of 2 additional cosigners. they were receiving threats, $250 million bond deal, put their home up as collateral, bankman-fried will be asked to enter a plea to 8 federal charges he is facing, conspiracy to commit wire fraud but this is serious stuff. you see the last one, campaign-finance allegation. the biggest legal hurdle might come from his mit roommate gary

wong, cofounder of ftx who is accused among other things of writing code, a backdoor for folks to be taken out of ftx but gary wong and carrie ellen ellison, they both pleaded guilty to a number of charges and agreed to testify against him but bankman-fried knows that. we are told by someone familiar with the case that he will plead not guilty to all charges against him. he didn't comment on his way into the courthouse so we will see if that takes place when the hearing gets underway. neil: bankman-fried's future will ultimately be determined and we go to charlie gasparino, what he makes of all this, not guilty. charles: us attorney's office in no rush to make a deal. they have his girlfriend and mr. wong, doing everything they think they need to put this guy away for 30 years.

neil: no need to strike a deal? charles: they are not rushing it. the us attorney's office from what i understand bankman-fried, what i understand, these are lawyers involved in the case, not directly but this is an apt for lawyers, have you seen all the companies bankman-fried had stakes in and they are wrapped up in bankruptcy court. these companies need to hire lawyers to find out what is going on but they are saying, on the money, i knew who would get indicted before the end of the year, i knew the girlfriend was going to turn over and this is a temporary holding pattern, not guilty for now, try to work out a plea deal and better terms than facing 30 years to life in jail. and they have two witnesses,

they changed the risk profile of the alameda hedge fund which took the money so they can take as much money as they want from ftx customers and borrow unlimited. they are saying that. neil: the exchange took customers money, right? charles: it was customer money in the exchange taken by alameda which is essentially the hedge fund which was part of the exchange. just so you know in this type of crypto wallet, we have a lot to cover but you go to an exchange. there are a lot of people in that exchange and one of the people is sam bank superman-fried's hedge fund, alameda capital, you can borrow from each other. there are requirements and limits. that prevents you borrowing too much or losing too much and not being able to repay the borrower.

but they did according to ellison and wang and a lot more looks suspicious about this operation. they went in and they rewrote the risk code that let alameda borrow from the other customers unlimited with no stopgaps. if that is true, he agreed to that, that is so reckless, even if he didn't -- and so that is why the us attorney's office is saying plead not guilty. two quick things, janet yellen back in the news, the treasury secretary, they are looking for graceful way to exit her in the new year. and replacements for commerce secretary, bank of america ceo brian moynihan, top front runner armando, they are looking for a dip in inflation.

that's what they are waiting for in something we don't have to pin on her. she can say job well done. let's move on to somebody else because the economy could get nasty. inflation might not be the problem, recession -- neil: or something that could be short-term. neil: you want to somebody who worked in private sector, wall street could get pretty hairy. bank of america -- that's the thing to hear. we could get squarely and in 2023 i have sources, analysts talking about this, investor sources saying quickly under pressure stocks under pressure, probably going to unload espn and/or do the whole thing. espn as part of abc, to take out the whole thing. neil: is that a separate

trading interview? charles: there are a lot of potential players. that is what i understand and it is not just a bunch of analysts theorizing. investors are plugged into the company. there is a major activist investor in the stock. look who is in the stock. if you really want to know right now, ge is selling itself off, devasting into 3 separate units. it began with an activist steak pushing the company to make changes which they didn't and deciding some is worth more, the parts are worth more than the sum to sell everything and create shareholder value that way. the same thinking is going on here. i don't see a complete dismemberment of disney but you can see why they might take out espn or adc. doesn't fit their streaming package.

neil: getting ge back in the day, you had broadcast and the media. charles: it takes a special ceo to run that. jack welch, did a review of bill cohen's book, jack knew what he was doing with ge but jack would have taken ge apart a lot faster than after 9/11. neil: after he stepped down. charles: i am saying iger is seeing the board, this is a board that doesn't waste time, they are out of shape a year and 1/2 or two years, short period of time, he knows he is under pressure to perform. one way to do this is to pair down, get your costs in order. those extraneous parts. neil: thank you very much.

charles: it must be the italian in me. i was born italian. neil: happy new year to you. it is official right now kevin mccarthy has failed at his first crack at becoming the next speaker of the house, he did not get the vote he needed, it proceeds to a second vote, don't know how soon that will be. we cannot tell you who the singer person is, this could drag on a while. -what's he doing? -he's cleaning the trash cans. oh, boy. meeting a new young homeowner for the first time is a unique challenge. -so you think you can help? -i can try. hey, what you doing? oh, just cleaning my trash cans. wow. it's important to build trust. see you put your address and phone number on here.

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if operators are busy, call again or go to loveshriners.org to say yes right away. neil: florida up close and personal, not only inauguration day for governor desantis to begin a second term, a sprint on the way to the white house but some problems with cuban migrants trying to make their way in, a massive surge getting everyone's attention. bill keating in miami with more on that.

>> reporter: the current wave of cuban illegal immigration to the united states is the largest it has been in a decade according to customs and border protection. has been up 500%. migrant interdiction since october 1st. this is customs and border protection facility where all the migrants are processed and the first van is supposed to be arriving any minute now. there will be bus after bus and van after van with hundreds of cubans who arrived in the florida keys the past 72 hours. over the new year's weekend, 500, some say up to 600 cubans arrived in their home made boats up and down the florida keys with 25 separate landings and 200 migrants arriving in the remote dry tortugas desperate to escape cuba, its communist government and economic disaster. the park service closed the remote park at fort jefferson, for the first time ever and it

will remain closed for two days, maybe longer so personnel can provide humanitarian relief, 70 miles west of key west and there are no services. it's a popular or historic place, and the only way to do that is by boat or seaplane. this shows lack of a working plan by the federal government to deal with mass migration issue that was foreseeable. cubans make the perilous journey to get to the keys, it often leads to death, search and rescue operations and introductions by the us coast guard. the coast guard intercepted 6000 by boat in fiscal year 2022. once they arrive here it takes a couple hours. they will often plead for political asylum but if that is denied, not guaranteed anymore,

they are very likely repatriated back from where they came. neil: phil keating in miami on that. want to give you up-to-date, republicans, who will lead the house of representatives? not that it is never happened before but it can go to the other party if republicans as some republicans fear, screw it up. there is a fascinating story on this, the los angeles times has a different take on this but i thought was intriguing, very insightful. the times rights a potential blow to california. instead of handing power and influence from a california democrat in nancy pelosi to a california republican in kevin mccarthy, both leaders could be relegated to backbenchers of congress, one by choice and the

other by force. we will have more after this.

neil: if at first you don't succeed, another vote, that's the move in the house where it looks like kevin mccarthy failed in his first attempt to get enough votes to become

speaker of the house. where do we go from here? >> reporter: what is going on right now as they are trying to figure out if they will have an immediate second vote, they are doing all the official tallying. they will announce that from the data. cheryl johnson who is the democratic clerk of the house, keep in mind republicans are supposed to be in control but cheryl johnson is in charge until the republicans elect the speaker today or a few days from now. she will announce the tally and then we will determine what happens next. could we have other nominating speeches? we don't know. this is not happened in 100 years, 1923, when it took 3 days to reelect speaker frederick gillett. will the house adjourn? by rule they are supposed to go to another vote. will they ask anybody if they need to change their votes? that's possible. we haven't been to this point in 100 years.

what is significant about the roll call vote we just went through is there were 19 votes by name against kevin mccarthy commerce for someone else, jim jordan or andy biggs, jim banks, republican congressman from indiana. none of them have as many votes as kevin mccarthy but mccarthy did not get an outright majority of the entire house for votes by name so there were 434 members who responded to the quorum call, there is one vacancy who died. the magic number, everybody votes by name is 218. kevin mccarthy was well below this. what the news is here is it was shocking that he did not have fewer people voting against him by name. on the one hand it could be expected that you would have most people offer protest votes on the first valid but i'm told in the past 2 or 3 hours republicans had this contentious meeting this morning, that opponents of

kevin mccarthy have steeled their resolve. this is where kevin mccarthy says i'm going to stay in and if it takes one 2345 votes or however many it is we will continue to vote. at one point if this meter does not move, say it's 19 people are more people start to drop off, does kevin mccarthy drop out? neil: it is his future if he does. >> it is unclear. the freedom caucus and the andy biggs wing of the republican party keep saying at the second ballot they will put forth another name, we don't know who that person will be, they talked about that for a long time so we will see if they make good on that promise in the next few minutes. neil: thank you very much. i see some developments here, not that he didn't get 218 votes but was well shy of that. final numbers here, we will keep you posted, the dow is making a comeback but i don't like little chicks in the dow

but it is 38 points, technology stocks at their worst levels, still a couple hours to go, stay with us. . .

neil: all right. kevin mccarthy didn't do it on the first try. they will try again. they don't have to necessarily vote for congressman. charles payne could be chosen. speaker payne. here he is. charles: what is the pay, neil? [laughter] neil: no pay. no pain, all g