stuart: this show is three hours long. the last 60 seconds is often considered the most enjoyable part. this is the question, gee geographic center of lower 48. you first, ash. >> kansas, how about that? stuart: i'm saying missouri. >> i'm going nebraska. stuart: nebraska. the correct answer is, kansas. ash, you win that one. i always get confused with that one. thanks everybody for being on the show. mark, ashley, all good stuff. time is up for me but neil cavuto, it's yours. neil: thank you, my friend. we'll see if we can follow up what you got cooking there. we're looking at dow in and out of session highs, 264 points.

the real story what was the big story yesterday. i quantity to take you to the floor of the house. they're expected to give it another crack, the fourth vote who will be leader in congress, speaker of the house. we're getting developments that could jostle that. hillary vaughn is on capitol hill. >> reporter: neil, we'll see if the fourth time is the charm. it is unclear whether or not there will be a roll call vote for speaker shortly after the house begins normal business any moment now. sources are telling fox there could be a investigation to adjourn on the floor which would stall any efforts to hold a vote on speaker, kind of if you're reading the tea leaves here. that sends the message maybe kevin mccarthy has not made as much progress overnight to win over critical holdouts ahead of this morning.

they may be trying to stall the vote on speaker in order to garner the support that he needs to actually have successful vote for speaker. we'll see if that happens any moment now but it's not just some republicans that think that this is a bad look, the stalemate between republicans in the house and kevin mccarthy is a bad idea. former president trump weighing in this morning saying that 20 republicans holding out against kevin mccarthy is not a good look, warning his party this, do not turn a great triumph into a giant embarrassing defeat telling them to back kevin mccarthy as speaker. republicans may try over again today voting in moments or possibly not for speaker. mccarthy failed three times to get enough republicans to back his bid. today he is hoping the fourth time is the charm. what is your gameplan today? >> excuse us. >> how are you going to get more

votes, sir? >> we're talking. >> has there been any progress? >> if we get -- >> reporter: until the house gop can agree who should lead the house, republicans campaign promise to challenge president biden's agenda is going to have to wait but the delay is not making any dissenters second guess opposition to mccarthy. instead hoping someone like jim jordan will step up as a consensus candidate. >> look, it is not great for the party. we'll either figure it out now or fight amongst each other the next two years. if you watched the speech jim jordan gave, quite honestly most republicans sat there, said, my goodness why isn't this guy running for speaker? no one will step up until the guy at the top steps aside. >> reporter: democrats see so-called republican civil war as entertainment. california congressman ted lieu tweeting a picture of himself to

the house floor yesterday. president biden is not enjoying watching this all go down. >> [inaudible] president biden: know. it is not a good look. it is not a good thing. it is united states of america. i hope they get their act together. >> reporter: fox's peter doocy asked p president biden what he thinks will happen if there is not a speaker in the next week or next month. president biden shrugged his shoulders and walked away. we'll see what happens. the big question, how much time does kevin mccarthy have? how many votes will he be allowed to secure speaker ship for himself around ultimately run out of time to let someone step up. neil: you redo the math from zero. hillary, great reporting, my friend. that guy you referred to peter, he was not that bad either.

thank you, hillary. chad pergram following this. chad, what can we expect? you can do the same thing again and again. you know the old line. i'm wondering what could be different now if anything? >> well by rule what they're supposed to do is vote again and again and again and again until they get a speaker. i was just watching the house floor here. if you see me looking off to the side i might be trying to keep track of the proceedings here. what is in order is another vote for the speaker. what we've been hearing this past hour, mccarthy loyalists might move to adjourn. that would take precedent over trying to elect a speaker. anybody can move to adjourn. that is probably a bad sign for kevin mccarthy. why? that meanings he did move the meter overnight. it means the statement by president trump did not move the meter as well. former president trump does not have the same political voltage he once did. that is a bad sign if they move

to adjourn. the problem, they might not actually adjourn. the reason because you have coalition of republicans who say let's stay here and vote. democratic whip elect catherine clark of massachusetts, she has just sent out a notice here, she wants her members, advising them to vote against a motion to adjourn. you could have the coalition, just takes a simple majority of democrats and republicans to keep the house in. then they do have to have another roll call vote for speaker. if we see that vote matrix come up here and kevin mccarthy still has 20 or maybe more members voting against him that is a problem. maybe they don't want to see that on the board. that would tell them where they stand with kevin mccarthy. remember there were 20 that voted against him yesterday. the potential peril for kevin mccarthy, if that number grows. neil? neil: to your point it is all about the math which i find is a brilliant analogy, because it always applies in washington, no matter legislation or battles

like this. it is more than getting a minimum of four congressman or beyond four not to bolt but now we're talking upwards of 20 because that is how many are seeking an alternative to kevin mccarthy. so his task has actually gotten more difficult? >> kevin mccarthy said somef these people beeyen in ress a while. as a mathematical challenger in 1849 and 1856 where after the house was in a cul-de-sac, could not vote, could not figure out who it williamed to be the speaker the house eventually lowered the bar what the threshold would be for speaker. here is the from for kevin mccarthy. if you do that, simple majority, outright majority of entire house voting is what the standard is right now. if they lower that bar to simple majority how they elected two speakers before, the problem is

that hakim jeffries, the democrat would win. on every roll call vote he was outpolling him 212-202. outright majority. person wins most vote wins. that will be a problem here. i'm looking at house floor here. looks like they're in stasis. unclear if somebody moved to adjourn just yet. they have also not moved to the next speaker vote. this fight get squirrly over the next half hour. we are in incharted territory in the house of representatives not seen in one century. nobody knows how it will go. there is no script for this, neil. why we're making this up as we go along. neil: i wonder what would change, if you do have adjournment, you go back in a room, all the republicans gather, insults flying back and forth, that stubborn growing number of those who warrant anyone but kevin mccarthy, 19,

20, in the latest count, that doesn't budge. one thing i often heard, chad, kevin mccarthy comes back and says i have 90% support among my members. i thought to myself, well that is all well and good, like you run for president, getting 90% of 270 electoral votes doesn't close the deal. winning over 90% after board that has to be with you 100% doesn't close the deal. so i'm just wondering if that is falling, appears to be falling on deaf ears? >> two points to that i just spoke to one republican before i came on the air who indicated the same thing. we have most of the votes. this is somebody who supported kevin mccarthy. why doesn't the other side drop out? because that is not the rule okay. that is why. i know, i'm a big baseball fan. i have seen baseball teams win 100 games in a season not qualify for the playoffs. you won 100 games. you within more games than the other teams, you didn't make the playoffs. this fall the tampa bay

buccaneers have a pretty sorry record than other teams. they are higher seeded team because they win their division. you have to work within the rules. neil: very good point. >> here is the other point, neil, that is interesting. you talked about them going into a back room. you and i discussed on the air this papal analogy having a conclave of some sort, there are not really these conclaves going on capitol hill, what they're trying to do is understand what is next because they probably know right now whether or not kevin mccarthy was able to move the ball or not overnight. they also know if president trump's statement was able to move anything in favor of kevin mccarthy. if that didn't, they know where those votes are right now. they know at this moment, whether they have picked up steam or not, even if they can show yeah, we plucked off one. we plucked off two. that is key. i see that cheryl johnson is speaking on the floor right now. we should maybe take an ear here to see what she has to say,

neil. neil: fine. >> please come forward to take their seats. [inaudible conversations] neil: chad, i'm not quite sure what is going on here. looks like they are going through with a vote but you're far closer, know far more about this than i do. if they're risking that, if you're kevin mccarthy risking rejection for a fourth time, the same math applies, you can't lose more than four members,

right? >> that's right. and the other issue too is to see how many members start to show up. remember a lot of people had their families in yesterday, expecting them to be sworn in. do people start to go home? i was told off the record yesterday, i've not been able to confirm this, might be at least two republicans who might not be available today due to family situations. we don't really know. i looked into that. we weren't getting a lot of information here on capitol hill. yesterday they started with 434. so that vote matrix starts to maybe dwindle. what is the outright majority of the house casting votes by surname? do some absences help democrats? do some absences help, you know, those who are supporting jim jordan? do the apsenses help kevin mccarthy? neil: would that -- >> depends who is absent. neil: solid 212 votes. democrats have been locked in step on that. say a few republicans to your point, either stand back you got to wonder, right? >> this is why i have always

talked about not so much as the math but the speaker's vote is parliamentary algebra because you always have an unknown in there. like working out equation. you don't know which side, which vote, which person, which side of the aisle might be absent on which roll call vote. there is a variable in there each time. that is what we're trying to figure out right now. it could be different and the longer this goes on, you know, you try to get 434 people in the same room every day. that number will be go down. people have to take kids back to school, doctors, medical emergencies. it's a problem. it will be a problem if this drags on later this week. neil: to that point, after the resignation of pope benedict on this conclave point, i do have a point here so if you will bear with me, chad, there was this open field of potential cardinals to replace him.

gather in the sistine chapel, decide, smoke, whole nine yards. we're told in the early voting ultimately it would become vote francis. only garnered a few votes, but some steam happened when a front runner failed to produce anything. i'm just wondering whether there is another choice we're not seeing who could be emerging here and gathering what could be more support, the more voting we have? >> you know the day that kevin mccarthy with drew in 2015 from the speaker's race, john boehner announced he was resigning. i chased steve scalise down in the longworth building, if he would be candidate for speaker. he was mum. didn't say a word. quick speaker literally from the office of paul ryan he would not be a candidate for speaker. guess who was speaker of the

house in 2 1/2 weeks? paul ryan. we have this happen all the time in politics where somebody makes announcement, says they're not going to do something, they're not interested in a position. then it happens. this was the point matt gaetz was making yesterday about jim jordan. may be the perfect person for this position, somebody who doesn't want the job, sought the job for decades. that would be the key here. now looking at the house floor right now, it looks like they are not going to adjourn, that they are proceeding with an effort to, to have nominations again. this is mike gallagher, a republican from wisconsin, you know, putting kevin mccarthy's name back into nomination here. so the fact if they're going to proceed with this, that might mean that kevin mccarthy maybe made some progress or maybe they're just determined to continue to vote and vote and vote and vote. that is something that mccarthy had said to me yesterday morning, something his aides, people close to him reiterated over and over again.

they would wear them down and continue to vote, and vote, try to embarass the other side. but again, this goes back to the other thing i said yesterday. particle politics. leadership elections are decided at subatomic political level. we don't see exactly who will get into leadership. there was a point in time, guy from western new york, tom reynolds was supposed to be speaker of the house, succeed denny hastert? guess what, we never had speaker tom reynolds. there was a point in time eric kantor was the heir apparent to john boehner. that never happened. eric kantor lost his primary. i can go through a list of people, chris van hollen, the senator from maryland to, haugh jer becerra. who succeeded her? hakim jeffries. to your politics about rome,

might be decision where it is not clear but the decisions are made at the subatomic political level. maybe at some point someone emerge to command the votes. neil: who would become pope francis, became five votes before someone emerge as getting a dozen votes, majority of the cardinals at the sistine chapel. i want to go with the experience with doris kearns goodwin, team of rivals, all top republican favors get republican nomination in 1860, over the guy who did after multiple ballots, abraham lincoln. i'm back to obsessing about multiple ballots, behind the scene, who and what forces are emerging? if the guy expected to win has the most votes keeps coming up short, i cannot fathom that the others just stand back to say, all right we'll try and try

again. your thoughts? >> that is it what i heard from some members today. that is what i thought. it is kind of a false narrative he would just drop out. we will try and try again to get kevin mccarthy. at some point that damn is going to break. people will say, you know, we keep hitting our head against the wall. it is obvious that the math does not work for kevin mccarthy here, we have to try somebody else. we'll see, there hasn't been any public polling on this right now. we've only had a day of this. this has not sunk in with the public that much just yet. chip roy, the republican from texas. he had a line walking out of the capitol last night, i don't think the average guy sitting at home in des moines, iowa, somewhere, saying oh, my gosh we don't have a speaker of the house but i will say this, if you know the constitution, the constitutional officer of this branch of government is mentioned first in article i of the copstution is the speaker of the house. there is no majority leader of the senate ever mentioned in the constitution. it's a speaker of the house. we don't have somebody right now

for this branch of government. this is what president biden was alluding to, this looks bad globally. our enemies, china, north korea, iran, look, they can't get their act together, it looks bad on the global stage if this continues to play out. that is an issue here. so far that damn has not broken. you know the other thing i want to kind of get into here, at some point if they can't figure this out on the republican side, i've been told what they might start to do is work with democrats, the problem-solvers caucus, this group of moderates, josh gottheimer democrat from new jersey, a key player there, to figure out some sort of a coalition. we talked yesterday, in europe you have coalition governments. we've seen this happen in state legislatures. in arkansas some years ago, you know the minority party, they wound up electing a speaker who was not the majority party because they couldn't quite get the votes. you have these weird things happen sometimes in politics. we don't see it happen in this

building as often because it is kind of a party system but because you're into uncharted water sometimes those things start to happen. neil: chad, on that point, we are just following the speeches on behalf of kevin mccarthy. we'll hear the same from hakeem jeffries. >> i will look at my phone. i just got a message. i will look down. i'm listening to you. neil: we're focusing on this. not that we're ignoring all of the speeches here, it is setting up a fourth try a fourth vote. we still need 218 votes here. now the problem has been, certainly for kevin mccarthy that he originally could afford to lose only four republican congressman, of, elect representatives. remember they're not formally sworn in until the speaker issue is settled. ultimately that grew to 19 that rejected kevin mccarthy, 20 on the third vote. technically what kevin

mccarthy has to do in this vote should it come to pass within a few minutes, chad is checking on that, you really have to win over 15, 16 of those 20, to avoid them you know, a jailbreak of sorts but, chad, where are we then? >> well right now we seem to be in the same position that we were just a bit ago. this is where you know, we'll know if they go ahead with this vote here in a couple of minutes. right now pete aguilar, the new chair of the democratic caucus, placing hakeem jeffries name back in nomination. you have to be very careful with republicans not to have enough people suddenly go absent, number one, or tick off the anti-mccarthy camp here to the point they don't vote for somebody by name but they vote present. you know, i laid this scenario out in early decent on martha maccallum's show on fox news, just exactly the way this is kind of the doomsday

scenario. let's do the math here. there are 222 republicans. there are 212 democrats. there is one vacancy. so 218 is the magic number. i didn't know at the time you might have 20 republicans vote no. we were told five republicans were opposed to mccarthy. we thought the number would be higher. but i picked 20 when i was on with martha. that takes kevin mccarthy down to 202. if democrats stick together, you have hakeem jeffries. that is where this was polling yesterday. i said what happens if all 20 vote present, present means you're not casting a ballot for anybody by last name. that is the rule in the house of representatives. in that case then you have lowered the bar of the total universe of what the house is, what the votes are needed. and so suddenly that is where you could get hakeem jeffries or maybe somebody else elected speaker. the other thing talking to this republican member before i

walked in here, they were discussing the possibility of an outside person. you don't have to have a sitting member to be the speaker of the house. somebody mentioned, he is not a member now for a little more than 24 hours is fred upton, republican of michigan. that is one. another name i heard mentioned was lee zeldin from eastern long island, unsuccessful campaign for governor. that is somebody we would look at here. i look on house floor, chip roy, republican from texas. okay, right now he has put into nomination, this is a new one, byron donalds. byron donalds for speaker. you might remember yesterday that byron donalds, republican congressman from florida, he had been voting for kevin mccarthy on the first two roll call votes and then what he did, he switched his vote on the third ballot for jim jordan. jim jordan has not been campaigning actively for

speaker. he said the reason i switched my vote, it is obvious kevin mccarthy doesn't have votes. we'll continue to vote, vote, wear people down actually works counterpurposes. it is counterproductive. you will not get people on your side that way. byron donalds did get a vote for speaker on the very first roll call vote yesterday. at one point he was campaigning to be the chair of republican conference against elise stefanik. he is a second year lawmaker. you might see other names come into play. byron donalds this is name we not heard actively for leadership. he indicated last night he was not actively seeking this, nor put his own name into the leadership race here but that something that which have to watch for. again you could have somebody start to talk about these outsiders. i mentioned lee zeldin, i mentioned fred upton, somebody else may came out of left field or right field, could cobble together coalition of votes. at some point democrats might

get involved in this. so far they indicated they're eating popcorn. as i say in the broadway musical, avenue q, this is, if you know the song from avenue q. this is the problem the republicans have, playing out in public life on the house floor. neil: real quickly, i have doug collins, former georgia congressman, former rather thanking member of the house judiciary committee, very smart guy, i did want to ask you before i go to him, about saying present, not showing up to vote, that would be any risky for any republican to pull that, when you have hakeem jeffries at 212 votes, all he needs is six more, whatever the new math would be, couldn'ting people are stepping back, that is practically handing it to a democrat? >> that is the danger. scott perry, republican from pennsylvania said they won't let that happen. there was a point where matt gaetz if we wind up electing

hakeem jeffries, so be it. there is a bit of division -- neil: did he say that? he would prefer a liberal, very progressive lab ral? >> yes. that is what he said. other people, members when they start, when they start to do this you are playing with fire. you don't really, you're not in complete control of this. the votes on the floor are going to fall where they may. that is where they wanted to really try to stick it to kevin mccarthy if they start coming in voting present, hakeem jeffries actually has a path. that is viable. neil: incredible. chad, i know you're busy, you have to check your sources. i do want to come back to you, the aforementioned former georgia congressman, kind enough to wait all this out, congressman, good seeing you. what do you make of the drama building right now? >> i make it as a, it is almost a 10-yearing, probably 12 year building up. this has been coming on for a long time. this is something i not heard any commentator talk about. this is something festering in

the republican conference for at least 10 years t rise as little bit. we see it often at the speaker vote. it comes up in other ways as well. this is the concern right now they're having is that again, now they're nominating byron donalds. we'll see if this is an end play. really at this point it seems very personal to the 19 at least, might be even 20 now against mccarthy. it is not about policy, not about getting anything. this is personal. frankly they have nothing to lose to continue sticking where they're at especially on a personal line on think, doug, one thing i always enjoyed about you, you put away all the consensus thoughts that are out there and you look at what, the challenge is and i try to do that myself. i think about, i hear from kevin mccarthy and his supporters, got 90% of the support, 90% of the support, again i'm not smart of this stuff as you are, you

don't win the presidency with 90% of the 270 electoral votes. you need 270 electoral votes. it is not about how much support you have, but whether it gets you to the finish line. say what you will, close as it is, it is not after three tries getting kevin mccarthy close to the finish line. it is about that 218 and he ain't there. >> exactly. neil, i don't know if you had a chance to look at the screen, i did briefly when i listened to chad, i like chad, making hakeem jeffries speaker will not happen. chip roy and many of those meant with the parliamentarians before it started a week ago. they know the barriers they have to bump up into, you notice on the screen, a lot of 19 are sitting together. byron donalds was close to them. that indicates to me this vote will be very similar. this would be a similar vote. neil: a fourth vote to your point would be a failed vote for kevin mccarthy. in other words that group of 19

or 20 ain't going anywhere? >> exactly right. so again, some of this though, you got to remember, kevin mccarthy, stand back position, i known kevin well, he has done everything you normally do to be the speaker, he thought his margin would be a lot bigger, 15, 20, maybe even 25 member majority. you -- neil: you don't have to get so close to the vest, right? >> right, exactly. why he didn't, i heard a lot of freedom caucus he wouldn't talk to us in the summer. he wouldn't do that. to his, two different points he could have talked to them then. may not have liked what he said, if he thought he would have enough votes that matter no sense engaging. as soon as they came to have four votes to deal with, this happened past 10 years, fourth or fifth vote that puts him over is the problem. my fear, let's take a look down the road, neil, we got big issues coming up. we have immigration. economics, 12 appropriations bills. by the way if the republicans can't pass 12 appropriations

bills to find 218 votes i want them to get griping about the appropriation process. i said that while i was there. i say it again. if you can't get these votes and come together, neil, where will we getting together on policy votes that matter? neil: that is -- doug, i want to ask, you dismiss the idea of hakeem jeffries holding firm at 212 votes, 218, republican cost stumble, even congressman like gates of florida, would say i'm just quoting chad here, who would be fine over kevin mccarthy. you have a couple republicans gates was to that same point of view what do you think? >> i think matt is speaking for his own personal belief, that would be true but look, they understand, there are people on the floor especially with the 19 or 20 who have been looking at the rules.

roy, others out there as well, that are very good rules people. i always believed the person who knows the rules can run the house because if you know the rules you can get by with it. people down there from keeping happening. i do know hakeem jeffries well. i don't want him speaker especially with republican majority. they have to watch it, yes, the question -- neil: you say wouldn't last, vote ensued, fourth vote for speaker. look at others column, right now zero. which have a third of the way through the process. we were up to five congressman among the others, not mccarthy, his bid failed. but that it wouldn't last to your point if, there is a possibility hakeem get get in there. very unlikely to your point but could they try to topple him? >> yeah, look it could also snow on christmas here in gainesville, georgia. the likelihood is 1% every 100

years. i want them, the fact it is great for the sitting around the coffee pot, seeing how it will work. i tend to deal with reality is. this is reality at this point. you're now starting to see the votes because they're not right at very top. there are a lot of members there. this will be a an interesting point. they have to watch it. my question here is this, if democrats don't show back up, which is the more interesting scenario, they don't start showing back up, lowers threshold for mccarthy, takes away votes from jeffries. the argument will be mccarthy had to turn to democrats to get elected. neil: we're now at a point where we have one republican not presumably, two now. >> two. neil: at the rate we're going, we're very early in the roll call, quite a to go through, 434 total members. i don't know if all 434 voting

here. that is how close it is for kevin mccarthy. say this fourth vote, doug, doesn't go his way, you reminded me they can keep voting, they keep voting but there is a point of diminishing return, is there not? >> right now. it is three. two more left. i guarranty you before we're talking, it will be done. five votes more. if it ends up at 12 that is accomplishment. look i say i got it down to 12 no votes against him. i only need seven more. 19 or 20, personal an my news. they not agreed to anything. if you listen to, these are friends of mine on both sides of this, it is become now, the chip roys, matt gaetzs, lauren boeberts just don't trust kevin mccarthy. that is sad we come to this conclusion we're fighting this out in public. we're four votes now, it is done. this is done. so unless he can show improvement right here, kevin has got a really hard row to go

up. and remember these are folks, donald trump came pack out and endorsed him again. they're not even listening to that. this is not telling me about policy, position, personalities. they felt disrespected in some way to mccarthy. they will not turn. if you voted four times against kevin mccarthy, what is the benefit you gain nothing voting for him? neil: that is excellent point. 43 voted in the round there. we have 434 who would. we're already at four who found an alternative to kevin mccarthy. we don't know how that breaks down, we'll find out afterwards. if it gets to five you know this formally failed. but, doug, i'm just wondering then, is there some back room maneuvering here among those 19 or 20, whatever it ends up being, maybe as i was pushing with chad, it not necessarily entirely facetious about it way

with enclave they meet after a pope passes away where others are emerging? >> yes. neil: we heard others emerging, including byron donalds, i'm sorry, of florida. and we're seeing more of that, will we see more of that? >> yeah. i think you could. two scenarios i want to lay out for you. number one, i come from a background ever counseling but military, also in business, if you're negotiating with somebody who doesn't care about what is being negotiated, in other words they're willing to do away with the hostage, if they're willing to do a way with the hostage, there is no negotiating there. give me what i want or i don't care. looks like that is becoming the role of these 19. they don't want to negotiate. give me what i want, they're just out. mccarthy will not do that. if he does give that up he will have problems in his own conference. giving up way more than any of the others who are absolutely furious. second point, neil, here is interesting point for you.

say after this round mccarthy says i'm done, i want to have you know, i will just steve scalise, i will endorse steve scalise. mccarthy drops out, endorses steve scalise. the question do the same 19 with no further indication of rules change, do they now vote for steve scalise or take down a second nominee? i think that whoever comes next will be the speaker, whoever it may be. this is what we saw with john boehner. everyone said no replacement, kevin stepped aside. two weeks later paul ryan said i didn't want to do this. many same ones were against everything that paul stood for, voted for him. it began a real problematic couple three years there. there are two scenarios you have to deal with here that is very, very frustrating, has to be for the mccarthy folks who worked so long to get there and let's not forget 200 other members of republican party say we need to get on with what we were sent

here to do, and they get frustrated. when it gets legislation, others against, not hearing from now, one on main street caucus, ones on tuesday group, business oriented mind set, they can hold up bills as well, this is the problem you got. this is not a good look. neil: as you said, as you predicted five votes against kevin mccarthy. so the fourth time is not the charm. doug, if you don't mind, i will go to chad who has been following this, chad pergram, the fourth time not the charm. now what? >> this means we'll have a fifth vote at some point. we kind of expected that already. this is just concretely tells us, that the thing to watch for in this roll call vote, two things, how many people actually cast ballots for somebody by name. see if it is still 434, first thing. see if that number, 20, which is what it was yesterday, 19 on the first two roll call votes, members voting against kevin mccarthy, it went to 20 on the

third one, does that shift? does he get more support, does it go up or change for some reason because you have different number of people in the chamber. those two things to watch for on this roll call vote, neil. neil: how are they doing it? is it in alphabetical order? >> you call the roll alphabetically. you have people not there, absent from time to time. lynn westmoreland former republican congressman from georgia, pointed out something, sometimes you have people at the front of the alphabet against voting for the speaker, and people at the back of the alphabet. people whose last names begin with a, b, c, they're kind of walking the plank. you want to see if the people whose last names begin with w or z, do they stick with you at the end of roll call vote. neil: sorry so jump on you. i'm getting emails, at this point we were at 70 or so who

had been, who had voted in that others column you had three. so, extrapolating from that, and to your earlier point about you know, kevin mccarthy reducing that 19 or 20 who are against him for whomever maybe at this pace, what do i know? i'm just going off an email. that he might have less votes rejecting him in this go-round? >> that is one metric here. i haven't listened to every last name that has been called by the house reading clerk here. sometimes people are absent. they didn't vote right then there was a lot of commotion in the hall. they come back to somebody later in the end. they keep the vote open to make sure everybody casts their ballots. in the time i was listening on the air, i was not able to pay attention to every last vote. that is one way to look at it. we have to see if there is anybody brand new who defected from kevin mccarthy.

we thought that might start to happen. we had three kind of things happen overnight. number one, time. kind of let this set in with everybody. number two, mccarthy working on this trying to see if he could get, get votes saying he was in a better position. then the statement by former president trump. you know, does that make any difference now? there was probably a point in time here on capitol hill where a statement like that by the former president carried a lot of beat. that is not the case anymore. as i say he has lost some of his political oomph. there is a lot of people who blame him for losing the house of representatives. you know what is interesting? there are probably two or three people who would have voted for kevin mccarthy for speaker were there not trump-backed challengers who defeated the republican, or enabled a democrat to win in the general election. peter meijer, republican of western michigan, he was

somebody who was a moderate republican. they ran a right-wing conservative against him, somebody who was very pro-trump. the democrats kind of helped in that effort, kind of boosting that person, they flipped the seat. same thing happened in southern washington. jamie herrera butler. she might have had disagreements with kevin mccarthy. remember back to the second impeachment trial of former president trump, she was kind of critical of kevin mccarthy how he handled that, some of the things said in the room on january 6th, two years ago. that seat because there was somebody, a very conservative, pro-maga republican who ran in that seat defeated her in the primary, they flipped that seat. marie perez democrat from southern washington flipped that seat. that is a factor. democrats are looking at this, republicans are certainly looking at this, hey, president trump did not help us. if you get down to that granular level, kevin mccarthy would

have had a little more support were it not for those pro-trump right-wing candidates who won in primaries and were unelectable in the general or defeated republican sitting house members. neil: to that point, we're talking about 222-212 house. that is a 10 vote margin here, close as a tick here. i want to draw your attention, chad, just indulge me, i follow other numbers besides ones you're focused on, that is the dow up 250 points in and out of session highs today. i venture this to you, to make a very bigger point, a lot buoyed by traders digesting good jobs, 10.4 million available jobs, manufacturing data all that bad ahead of getting fed minutes. gmev sales buoyed 60% last year. good news trickling out,

inflation going down, i mention that in the context of gridlock. of course you know wall street tends to like gridlock and the notion that the parties at loggerheads, maybe even republicans at loggerheads with themselves nothing gets done. obviously wall street tends to lean republican but they probably prefer a lot of what republicans get done, if in interim nothing gets done, they have less to screw up. i'm wondering if the markets are reading this partly collectly, that this will be stymied government no matter what happens? >> we knew they might not get a lot done to start wit. with divided congress, senate in democrat control, house in republican controlled. keep in mind we had divided but closer government, even closer, with senate 50-50. look what they did get done, chips bill. government did not shut down. major firearms legislation in

three decades. many were democrat wins. chips bill. infrastructure bill. the president going to covington, kentucky today, meeting with mitch mcconnell there. there is a bridge, the i-75 bridge runs between cincinnati and northern kentucky, the brent spence bridge. one of the worst bridges in the united states, a major thorough fare will be replaced. former democratic congressman brent spence. neil: 19 republicans voted for that, a dozen in the house. i guess partly what i'm trying to get across here is, this wish that nothing gets done, even if you're a republican, hoping the spending stop, to your point spending doesn't stop, there are a lot of things they want done to address some of this spending. excuse me. this could put them on the defense. >> here is going to be the problem. they have to raise the debt ceiling, probably sometime between now and about april if

not sooner. they have to fund the government. that doesn't come up until the end of september, if you're looking litmus test how house republicans are governing, what the challenges will be like you're seeing on the house floor. they cannot get their act together who will be speaker of house. nancy pelosi who ran the house with iron fist, whether you like her or not did not lose votes on the floor. i will say this again, nancy pelosi did not lose votes on the house floor. she did not bring a bill to the floor that was not going to pass. she would pass them with the most narrow of margins because she always knew where the votes were. she was able to govern a very narrow caucus in the house of representatives. she did that for years. she had bigger margins when they bassed obamacare, house version of cap-and-trade in 2009. didn't become law but obamacare certainly did. this republican majority because of those fissures, those

divides, those fractures, they will have a real problem when it comes to those votes. think about the backlash, whoever the speaker is, kevin mccarthy or somebody else, when they bring the debt ceiling bill to the floor, remember the debt ceiling crisis we had in summer of '11, moody's or s&p. neil: s&p downgraded. >> downgraded the credit rating of the united states even though they raised the debt ceiling because of the crisis. neil: all chicanery came to it, brought them down a notch from aaa. that was a huge deal. while you're talking, chad, we're learning as you and i both were looking at this, mccarl think members gave byron donald as standing ovation, my producers passed this along after he voted for himself. he wins on latest candidate of choice for the time-being. will there be others you think? >> that is very possible. i think longer this goes on you have other names that are entered. i think it is interesting. somebody said at some point, who

is this mystery candidate going to be? apparently the republicans have a series of mystery candidates. jim jordan was somebody the other day. byron donalds today. at one point they didn't they would have anybody. we don't want to put that person out there, all you will doha as them in the capitol hallways. fred upton, outgoing congressman from michigan, watching sound ever music and vienna festival. they call for the von trap singers and nobody would come out. now two people have come out. neither have sought this, jim jordan, nor byron donalds. we have at least names in nomination. neil: hang on there, chad. i want to bring larry glazer, mayflower advisors managing partner covers the stock market closely. larry, some might say this, my gosh, constitutional crisis, all part of government, governing, irdon't know if it reaches that

magnitude. if there was panic in the street it would not be up to the degree it is. what do you make the market is hoping on, maybe hoping to turn things around from a flat day, certainly a horrible year last year and maybe this is coming into play, this idea, well, nothing gets done? >> you know, neil, it's a new year and investors are craving a new direction. they're craving new leadership coming out of washington, new leadership coming from the stock market. it is a fine line between gridlock and dysfunction. the market accepted idea, split government, great for the markets. gridlock is great for the markets. you have to know you have to get some things done the market has a lot of skeptical view. the market pressure is over. there was tremendous tax-loss selling. tremendous relief. new year's time for resolutions. most people will get in physical shape, drop a few pounds. i will get my portfolio in

shape. there is a lot of optimism. people recognize i need to take control of my finances, if i save for retirement and college i can't worry about what is going on in washington. i have to move forward. the consumer is incredibly resilient. that is good news. they may not have the money they have, they may be spending more with debt. they feel optimistic seeking out main street businesses. there is a lot to be optimistic about. washington, we spent 2022 fighting the fed, right? investors realize the fed won. we'll move past that we'll not fight the fed anymore. the fed is fighting inflation. focus on what we control here and finances. new leadership in washington, maybe new leadership in the markets. let as move forward with our own personal finances. that is taking responsibility. that is a sense ever optimism. i'm incredibly encouraged. i can't believe calls we're getting from people. that is last year. i want to move forward next

year. neil: what do you think is going on? mitch mcconnell is with the president in kentucky, talking infrastructure. mcconnell is one of 19 republicans that voted for that. that caused consternation with some republicans in the house. your thoughts? >> i say this is remarkable split screen but neil, it is not really a split screen because all the attention is focused on capitol hill. the president will be speaking here in a little bit as you mentioned. he is talking about the new bridge. it will eventually be completed, a six, seven, eight-year time horizon. he will be there with senate minority leader mitch mcconnell. the world will little remember what they say there. all the attention will be what is happening here on the other size of the capitol in the house. how is mccarthy going to solve this? neil: can he solve it? what do you think, hans? you keep repeating this, these votes, same result, no

nomination. i wonder how long it goes on? what is the impact if he never gets it. >> there is theory out there from smart people close to mccarthy, from smart people all around town, if he sort of gives up now, if he retreats to the negotiating table too soon, we know what the outcome is going to be. so everyone is using metaphor of game of chicken. it seems like both sides need to figure out what the pain threshold, the pain tolerance is. now they have to win the most immediate vote, which is the motion to adjourn. then mccarthy can try to regroup, to try to figure out to see if conserves, 20 or 19, i look at the screen, they have got 12, 12 voting against him, he has to figure out if there is any way to get them there. here is the overarching question, chad is hinting at this. the overarching question is it

personal or political. if it is idealogical it is a way to solve it. if it is personal, opposed against mccarthy personal, difficult to see how you come off the perch, vote for him, allow him to become speaker. it does seem increasingly more personal than actually political. neil? >> that is interesting. that is a group that won't budge if it is that personal here. hans, thank you very much, i know you have to go. i think we still have doug collins with us, the former georgia congressman. doug, if you can indulge that notion if this is personal for some of the members for whatever reason they're just not fans of kevin mccarthy and they're not going to budge on that. >> exactly. what i was saying a few minutes ago, neil, we were talking about. this has become personal. this is not a policy issue anymore. this is a personal issue. they don't trust kevin. for whatever reason they chosen it will not happen. at this point their main goal is

to take mccarthy down. if byron donalds gets 19, 20 votes here, or more, if they do another round today, they will nominate somebody else. they will continue this, i disagree a little bit with the last person on, i agree we have an issue developing pressure on both sides but really now in the fourth ballot, those 20 don't have any pressure anymore. they already made what they are going to do. they made their bed. they know what consequences of this will be. there is no pressure on them anymore. the pressure was making the first vote against mccarthy. the pressure on mccarthy taking the rest of the 200 continually through this, when this group, at least intention of five of them have no intention voting for him. neil: how does that number emerge, maybe outside, thinking what we had when paul ryan emerged. he wasn't an instant you know, thought. he had been pushing back against

the notion of replacing boehner. he commended boehner, supported boehner. boehner was essentially just tossed by this group and, if you can take me through that, what brought us to paul ryan and how quickly he assembled the votes? >> yeah. thanks, neil. i was there when that happened. when boehner decided he wasn't going to run again or step down. neil: right. >> everybody thought it would be ascension for kevin. turned out not to be. a lot of different issues. we literally went on break. we didn't know boehner agreed to stay on but we doesn't know who it would be. it took paul ryan, if you heard the paul ryan was in a street stand, he thought about, agreed to put forward. he didn't really want to. this is something he didn't want to. if you have person don't want to be speakers classic movie ending, i didn't want to be

speaker but here i am. if you doesn't want to be speaker, tomorrow you and i put in the speaker position, you have to gear up from ground zero to run one of the largest organizations capitol hill, third in line to the presidency. don't have any of those people in place, any agenda, think about what that does for the republican agenda for next 60 days? you wouldn't go straight into the selection committee. you wouldn't go straight into naming chairman, some chairman may have a problem with this speaker. there may be issues there. this is an interesting issue. may be interesting to have this person, i didn't want to do this but at the end of the day like every business. you need someone ready, competent to do it. could somebody get there? yes, they could get there. do not believe it will be a fast process to get there. neil: doug, what makes you so good, i am not blowing you smoke, i forgot own with boehner and ryan, kevin mccarthy trying to make a move. that was then.

he could be coming up short now. i'm getting way ahead of myself. i don't mean to, if you indulge me, doug, if he doesn't get this, misses the brass ring and prize will even stay in congress? >> i would find it very tough for kevin to do that. i feel sorry, kevin is my friend. i have known kevin a long time. this is heart breaking to watch. this is something in the process if you're honest about assessment of republican congress last 10 years, this was something bound to happen, this was a wreck bound to happen. for kevin having to do this, leader, raising money, do everything, to drop back i don't see it this time. he did it once. i don't see it again. like deciding going head coach of football team to be put in charge of the equipment. that is very hard to do. neil: you know, can everyone make up after all of this and

get along? we've seen divisive intra-party squabbles in the past. i don't know, how this ranks, too early to tell, you have a lot of raw nerves, a lot of anger. to your point, as you said they have to get stuff done, how do you see all of this working out? >> 80% of stuff no problem. 80% of the stuff members don't pay attention, normal bills, real process. where this will come back, especially two weeks, committee assignments next week or two. who gets committee assignments, chairman, may work out. it may play out mentioned like some others, issues of appropriations bill, budget bill, debt ceiling. some immigration reform. anything they're trying to do with conservative bent to it, it is going to be if one of these, put people at odds, when you have people calling, different members calling them names, the

taliban, that is not helpful. shows you frustration has built up this is tea kettle simmering on the stove finally for years. four vote majority gave them the hisser sell to blow off the stop. that is what our seeing right now. neil: people can hold grudges, i come from an italian family, doug. when i go to funerals. there are still relatives who don't talk to other relatives. they don't even remember why they're not talking. so i'm just saying that maybe a few italian-minded types, not to besmirch italians, who will never ever forgive the wrath they endured or shared this go-round? >> i don't disagree with you at all, neil. this is something, this is why. neil: says a man named collins. this has. >> this has been building up for years. neil: all right. >> north georgia guy, this scar tissue has been building up for

years. this scar tissue has been building up for years. enough it is breaking. it will be hard. neil: livessen, have a happy new year doug, thank you very much for insight and expertiseering he laid out, looks like a fourth vote is lost by kevin mccarthy next speaker of the house, this goes on. what is interesting number of republicans who have voted for someone other than him. remember yesterday, weapon got to 20. he is at 14 now. and we're about little bit more than halfway through this process. so maybe he will, that is kevin mccarthy take some solace knowing, i kept it under 20. at rate we're going i don't understand that argument. we won't know until the end but we'll follow it very closely. aishah hasnie is on capitol hill

following this. how patient the mccarthy forces are and congressman him several to keep doing? >> reporter: neil, i think mccarthy folks and >> reporter: i think the mccarthy folks are in it for the long haul. they are going round after round after round. what you are watching unfold here and what i'm taking away from this is the never mccarthy folks don't seem to have a consensus candidate with the nomination of byron donald's. what it appears to say is these never mccarthy folks are just now introducing nominees to the rest of the conference that they can get behind. byron donald's, in this round,