reporter: it's our governance and nancy pelosi has demondemonstrated with her resud bona fide she could do that and do it easily whether you like her policies or not. no problem for nancy pelosi. very different for kevin mccarthy and steve scalise and whoever else is in the republican leadership and they've never demonstrated an ability to count the votes quite the way nancy pelosi did. number one. number two they're conference isn't all together. that's part in parcel what this whole debate and vote is about. that'll be really hard to govern and get anything done, even these big promises that they made over the past two areas to campaign and get control of the house. neil: thank you, chad. look forward to talking to you again. for those tuning in for those of you just tuning in your watching the 12 vote to see who will be leading the house presumably.

this has gone on longer than any prior speaker vote has had for the better part of a century. what makes this significant even though under the others column, 6 saying they don't want kevin mccarthy, the map could have changed and something has changed. we are getting word right now but byron donald's for example who garnered 19 votes on his own has voted for kevin mccarthy, 5 others have voted for kevin mccarthy. whether it is a result of the negotiations that went late into the night between the two bickering sides we don't know. what we do know is going into this we had 432 members, democrats and republicans, who were going to decide this account. count. we need 15%, if it was the 432 figure i mentioned, you would

need 216 votes. six others saying they have not voted, doesn't mean it is not won. i'm going by the older map but would still say technically at this point he has not closed the deal. but one thing is clear, this process, by 270 into this, right now, more than halfway through. only six going against kevin mccarthy. something has moved here. whether this could conceivably represent the actual vote that puts kevin mccarthy over the top, at the very least it would show momentum. if there's a follow-up it is the momentum colleagues will respond to. you break the ice or break a moment where everyone was stiffly in their own columns, they start moving. this movement appears to have

begun. we are not going to know officially for another 10 minutes or so. but gauging the speed of the math depends on where people are and how many holdouts are there and how many will vote present and all that stuff. the other corner of your screen, this could be crucial, the dow itself up 504 points ending a strong week. we could see the averages up, nasdaq not quite in that territory, and what buoyed attention for the markets was better-than-expected jobs number, that surprised a good many folks. with 223,000 new jobs better-than-expected the unemployment rate 3.5%, better than expected, rising at 4. 6% annualized clip versus 5%

last go around. maybe the inflation temperatures breaking a little bit, they could mimic what we've seen in europe or france, inflation numbers coming down in the european community, too early to say but that is how it is interpreted in the markets. if you are in the markets i don't know if you are paying more attention to that, what it might or might not do. i notice people who bet on fed funds or the lending rate, the rate the federal reserve controls on january 31st or february 31st, maybe that could be 1/2 point hike, some of the be run ups of these numbers, better than expected data. the musings of jerome powell from 6 years ago that inflation is a real problem and we won't back now. i blather on about this because

they are seizing on the prospect that we have a goldilocks environment here where maybe, maybe the pace and the momentum will slow, the degree to which the federal reserve raises rates and how long they do so. gary kaltbaum, as we wait for what happens with speakership, that is what the markets are tuned into right now. >> for today, what is happening is the 10 year yield has plunged. every time yields plunge it gives more cover for the fed to not raise rates as sharply or quickly going forward. liquidity and direction of rates is the name of the game for the markets since the bull market high going through this whole bear market and what they have besides the job numbers, factory order numbers, service numbers were not good. we have bad manufacturing numbers, that makes interest

rates come down, worry about economics going forward. that is the story for today. monday could be another story. i have this model, don't blink because the markets are insane. neil: we are getting word, the eighth flip for mccarthy. when i talk about a flip, someone who had heretofore voted against him, now voting for him. byron donalds is among them. he of course, the florida republican, served a single term, he was starting his second, gone ahead and set i will vote for speaker myself, voted for himself, garnered 19 votes, several of those votes, none this go around but he voted for kevin mccarthy and 5 others voted for kevin mccarthy. on top of that, two or three others. that initial pool of resisters were at 20. half of them, close to half of

them have now switched back to mccarthy. in a traditional universe where you need 218 votes, that is not going to get you the enchilada. it will depend on whether others are switching or could be switching. secondly, in this universe where we have one member who is not there, sadly passed away after he was elected, that brought the number down and another member who was absent, still another member voted present. i mention this because of that brings the total number down to a level at which it is possible you get half of a smaller number. in this case, 432 total members voted. you need 216. you need 430 members voting, you need 215, 216, you get 240

one, 228, 229, you see where i am going with this. you can see why a lot of people are paying attention. we are showing the you 315, 320 overall, counted here. still have another 120 or so to go. we are also keeping the other component down from where it would normally be. normally we would be up. this is done in alphabetical order. doesn't mean it is ironclad, doing the same thing we are not getting the same results. we are not getting what would normally be 11 to 12 others now, if not higher at this stage. that is being kept down and this is something the mccarthy forces were hoping to see though, indications of more flipping over.

we are getting confirmation of 1/9 flip, ninth republican that has now gone over to kevin mccarthy. let's go to aishah hasnie, what we can make of this. i am not calling a complete break, but something has happened, something has changed. what are you hearing? >> reporter: a pretty big day for kevin mccarthy. he was feeling very good this morning. his allies had big smiles on their faces. negotiations have been going really well as we can tell by what is happening on the house floor. you mentioned tween 9 flip switches not 20 but it is a big break for kevin mccarthy. i asked him on his way to the house floor a while ago, if he had cut a deal yet. he answered no, but he followed up by saying predict what you are seeing go down right now. he was going to be able to flip

some members who had repeatedly voted against him. that is what we are seeing. that includes dan bishop, john breachin, michael cloud of taxes, andrew klein, byron donalds who voted for him in the first round and decided not to vote for him anymore and suddenly became the nominee on the second day. luna, a freshman from florida, has flipped her vote to mccarthy. that's a big one as well. and mary miller. it is not 20 yet. it is not the magic number he needs. we will find out exactly the number he will need after the vote is over. when reporters asked him on his way into the chamber, what was it exactly that moved the needle? what was it that changed these members's minds? mccarthy said simply, a short

answer, he said i think sitting and talking, working through it, when they finally got out of the chamber and stopped the votearamas, and started talking among each other, not only opponents but the rest of the conference, people started to change their minds. we are also looking at a lot of concessions it seems mccarthy has made. that includes a lot of big wins for the house freedom caucus members, the far right conservatives who wanted more representation for example on the powerful rules committee, they want a vote on term limits for the speaker. they wanted standalone votes on appropriation bills. and they wanted to lower the threshold from 5 to one for the motion to vacate the speaker chair. that is going to be huge.

if this winds up happening, think about this. any one member will be able to call a motion to vacate the chair, that means they will have to take a vote, the entire chamber will be back in the situation you see here today, to vote and decide if they want to keep their speaker or not. that is a big giveaway. a lot of folks think perhaps there are concerns that mccarthy has given away too much, that he might have may be turned off some moderates. than there are folks who say of the entire conference is teaming up together and have this member only conference meeting this morning. we will see. at the end of this vote, i don't have a monitor in front of me, you will have to tell me where we are. we will tell quickly what the temperature check is. neil: carthy has 185 votes, jeffries has 186.

what is telling is 7 at this stage are not voting for mccarthy but at this stage with this many in, i am told we have already 16 firm nos or others. furthermore, she was with us at the start of the show, victoria sparks, congresswoman elect, 8 times over 8 consistent votes, the last 8 votes she voted present cousin is moved over to kevin mccarthy. we are told as well that byron donalds, challenger on the speaker friend to challenge kevin mccarthy for that has moved on to vote for mr. mccarthy. the reason we can't extrapolate much from this is we don't know the overall figure. we don't know the overall number of people who are voting or members who are present. we know there are 432 going

into this, members. by that math you would need 216 votes to close the deal to become the next speaker of the house. it could be less than the 216 requirement if the 432 is lower than that, the number of people is lower than that, or there are those who are not going to vote at all. i don't know many democrats who would risk that because they want to back jeffries and he has gotten all of the you 212 votes but that is why we can't make the leap. one thing we can make a leap to say is this will be a dramatically different results. even if he doesn't get the numbers required to be the next speaker, he has certainly broken the dam here by getting beyond that consistent no vote of 20 members. we are watching all that. asa hutchinson, outgoing arkansas governor, maybe an aspirin for the white house, kind enough to join us right now.

your thoughts on this drama unfolding before you? >> i am encouraged there is some momentum for kevin mccarthy. the whole country needs to have this resolved because we need to have our congress function. we have incredible challenges we face that congress needs to address and they can't start that without this speakership being resolved. that movement is encouraging. i hope they stay in the session over the weekend until this is resolved. i don't think it would be wise to send them home. they've got to get it done this weekend. i hope they can be successful. i might add you mentioned the jobs report and the impact on the stock market but in arkansas we announced 300 new jobs, technology jobs, the economy is strengthening and i am delighted to see some of the numbers look good in the latest

jobs report. neil: you mentioned the jobs report. the administration has been very keen about what is going on on the floor of the house. for those just tuning in, we could have this resolved soon. there is a possibility kevin mccarthy has made the magic number to be the next speaker of the house. it depends how many are voting as we speak. even if he doesn't get it in this particular round, he will be awfully close. some say set of emotional follow-up vote that could close the deal. we are unable to make any leaps because we don't know how many in total are voting. a couple members are out. we will get to that in a second. back to you, the jobs report, referred to the administration crowing about that showing it has consistent gains, last year this country generated 4.6 million new jobs, the momentum continues.

they seem to be saying what recession? given the fact that the president's timing of this to go to the border, see for himself, sounds like he is saying they are dillydallying and i am leading. what do you think? >> we all want good news for our economy, whether it is a credit that goes to the president or to the fed because of their management of inflation or whether it is because we are trying to control spending. regardless, we want to have success. the fact is biden has had failed policies when it comes to the economy, spending too much, over regulating, controlling inflation, get out of control, that is his responsibility, and the fact is states like arkansas and many other states, to reduce

regulation, grow those jobs, there's some response ability and credit that goes to governors that lead. this administration has a host of challenges from the economy and making sure we don't dip into recession to border security. when he is going to el paso in mexico, his plan is totally insufficient. it does not cover what needs to be covered. it is not as aggressive as needs to be done. he needs to lead to a greater extent to secure the border. neil: are you going to run for president? >> the most important thing is the message right now. time will tell on that. there is time to make that decision. i am in the mix on that. i am most concerned about the direction of our country and getting us back on track and to make sure we have consistent conservative policies for the future. when you look at the speaker's race and hopefully kevin mccarthy will win here, but the

question is how strong and effective is that going to be. neil: do you think he made too many concessions? that is what is yielding these 9 or so republicans who jumped to him, guaranteed no kevin votes, now they jumped to him. i am wondering, did he concede too much? >> that is certainly the concern. if in fact the rules are changed where one person can say we need to have a new speakers election and vacate the chair, that weakens in itself the leadership and that is a concern, because there's a lot of oversight that needs to be done, a lot of policy from energy policy to security issues to violent crime that need to be addressed. we need a strong speaker. i'm concerned about that but time will tell as to what kind of commitment has been made and how that will play out. we 20 that is one of our

favorite lines, time will tell. i guess time will tell. time will tell. always an honor having you, thank you, have a happy new year. >> thank you. neil: in the meantime, this is the highest number kevin mccarthy has garnered. they look close to done. i will rely on my astute staff. i know there have been 13 who have flipped to kevin mccarthy. 13 of the original 20 who opposed to. under the old map, not counting potential absences and no shows, he would need 218 and he is not at 218. the highest vote he has tallied from the 11 prior ones. on the twelfth, on the twelfth ago, his best vote count. 12 gop members elect who had not been voting for him have flipped.

those include the very same people who were the most vociferous against him but we don't know for sure, what were some of the guarantees or concessions mccarthy had given them. we heard a great deal of talk about allowing just one single member to oust you if he or she find something you are doing to be obnoxious. second, more power to the freedom caucus, the conservative group of congress men and women that are now going to have a much more influential role come might seem arcane to you, the rules committee in the house sets the pace and focus of legislation in congress and they will have a greater say. this looks close to done right now so we are 431 or so. if that is the case, not sure that is going to do it here for

kevin mccarthy, but it is the closest he has come. as we wait to sort this out. sorry, mccarthy, natalie, my producer covering this. an interesting development. representative andy was one of the never kevin group and now okay with him. 14 of the 20 who have come forward and we might learn more, 213 for mccarthy. walking jeffers -- hakeem jeffries gets all the democratic vote. 212, don't know if one is out today. let's get the read on this. charlie gasparino joins us. john lawn skiing through the cycle founder. charlie, to you. on what happened here.

i wouldn't go to a jailbreak but i would call it an icebreaker. i am just wondering, we had these deals and concessions in place for the last 48 hours. are there new ones? were there new agreements? charles: i look at this and say to myself, where is the republican nancy pelosi? this is a dysfunctional group as you have ever seen. they have just weakened the speaker to the extent that if one guy gets up and says i want to vote him out, they can do it. this is bizarre. here is the thing people lose sight of. all this stuff going on, president biden is full steam ahead on one of the most radical economic agendas there is. he sees dysfunction here. the other night he put -- gigi some, her vote as a senate vote, this is the calculus in the white house.

this is the gang that can't shoot straight, the house or the senate, they shoot themselves. let's put up another radical. i bet we can get her through now, because guess what, we controlled the majority by one, joe manchin probably -- neil: nothing can get done. charles: this is a clown car show. lauren: 20 what do you mean? >> politics is about the art of compromise. what we see here is no compromise. when you are compromising you walk away a little unhappy. charles: too much compromise. >> that may be the case but he is trying to get over the finish line. i think some of the things he compromised on our ridiculous. charles: what he should have done is said i am out, no more compromises. i am not going to weaken this post for the next guy. i am out. they created a paper tiger. he really is nothing at this point.

charles: he hasn't gotten it yet. we should stress that. from your vantage point, markets are doing their own thing. i notice the rates are going down on the notion one thing they pay attention to, the federal reserve might be given the confluence we had today, less inclined to hike, that is their bedding. and this has little to do with it. >> nothing to do with it at all. the markets are focused on the jobs report. jobs report is telling us the treasury bond market was right after all and the federal funds rate will rise no higher than 4.88% at the march meeting. with that 10 year yield, 3.6%, the bond market -- neil: we are learning now, work in the math backward, 270 should be the magic number for

this vote. as you can see here, we will end up at 213 or 214 for kevin mccarthy. just shy, but as we suspected when we first went on, hearing of this possible move over or crossover on the part of never kevin groups, the closest he has come in setting the stage for another vote that might finish the deal. charlie gasparino, if it comes to that, he gets it. to your point, i have heard this before, what have you gotten? he has got it. then the question becomes, what does he do with it? charles: think of the job of government, republicans in the house have to fight back the radicalization of the securities and exchange commission, put up some sort of pro growth agenda even though it won't passed the senate or

the white house obviously but they have to do that. they have so much to do to at least say stop to the biden administration on his movement of the economy to the left. while they are doing that, which is not easy, they've got to deal with -- may have to deal with romper room where the freedom caucus and matt gaetz, they are leading him around with a chain on his neck. it is almost sad. i almost feel bad for him in this sense. i know he wants this but he is going to be a puppet. charles: we don't know that for sure. let me get from you, dan, how this is digesting the. he's a long way from securing this. a few votes is everything. it is a preview of coming attractions, difficult to work

in a universe with 10 vote lead, 222 republicans, 212 democrats, that was narrow enough. some say that brought us here because he didn't have the bigger majority. i am wondering how the house gets things done if, even within the republican party it is a 50/fifty. >> the answer is they don't. he is going to be herding cats to get anything put together. in the end, whatever the republicans can do in the house is not going to pass. it will be dead on arrival in the senate and president biden isn't going to go along with anything. this is really about future elections. can they put something forward to say, to charlie's point, we tried, we put this together, the senate killed it, the president vetoed, whatever the case is, but we had good ideas. charles: it is about stopping stuff. having leadership to tell you which bills to stop.

nancy pelosi had, check me on my math, she knows the numbers, almost the same majority as he, and she ruled effectively with an iron fist. i am telling you, this, she is making him look like some sort of, i don't know -- neil: let me switch that around. i understand you always talk about gridlock is good and i get that, but if the gridlock is within the party -- not saying across the board, but mostly, they don't like gridlock within the republican party because than their priorities, irs agent thing, get them off our back, ease the spending thing if you can this time because that has gotten to be a problem, that could get complicated now and i wonder the reality of the potential reality charlie outlines, all bets are off.

it then becomes an issue with the bond market or the things we want won't materialize. >> the markets are pretty happy with the situation you have now where washington can't pass new legislation. liz: neil: even legislation that would be good legislation. >> that won't happen until the republican party gets its act together and takes control of the senate and the presidency. neil: they barely have control of the house. >> they did much worse than anticipated in the midterm elections. something is seriously wrong and there seems to be no single individual in the republican party that can remedy it. charles: the democrats have a 51 majority in the senate, not overwhelming. kamala harris as to that if there is a tiebreaker vote. if you have a strong house, and you have an agenda, you never

know who you pick off in the senate, be it kristin sinema or joe manchin. you have a leadership vacuum in the house. who is doing that stuff? who is putting forth the reaganesque counter to the stuff? it is nobody because we have a weakened -- almost a lame duck if he gets this. neil: you could be going a little too far. we will take a quick break. you can see these numbers. i don't want to go on about the numbers. we have to wait until charles johnson shares the numbers. it doesn't look at this point that kevin mccarthy is going to secure the job he always went going back to 2015 in this vote but he will get close. what we do know right now is 260, 270 votes you need to become that speaker. not 218.

it is going to be super, super close. we will get the read on that and the latest from this esteemed panel to tell us if we are going to hell in a hand basket. more after this. for expedia members, travel doesn't end at booking. it's getting a discount on your trip, plus points for your future travels. so you can keep thinking, “where next?”

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neil: it doesn't look right now vote the 12th vote in this process to establish who will lead the house of representatives will yield a win for kevin mccarthy but it is the closest he has ever come and the highest total he has ever had at 213. 13 could be the lucky number. i don't know. obviously there was a big shift. what happened? >> reporter: this was the deal, this was why kevin mccarthy had to show progress today, this was why he was working the phones, talking to members individually for the past 24 to 48 hours.

they had the last vote last night. there was no movement but they got it today, the fact that there were 14 members who came to his side of the aisle, people in the, paul -- paul gosar andrew clyde, byron donalds who voted for kevin mccarthy, victoria sparks, then voted present for a couple days, back to kevin mccarthy but he is still short. there are 7 members who are out right now. there are 7 members who are not voting for kevin mccarthy, 3 members who are out, to on the republican side, one on the democratic side and those two out on the republican side are supporters of kevin mccarthy. if this number holds that we believe we have is 213, 213, cheryl johnson, the clerk of the house, she will announce the total from the chair, what

they announced from the chair is official. the reason you're in this time lapse between the end of the calling of the role and the total, just like me and my colleague, one of our producers and everybody are scrambling to figure out what their vote totals are, they are doing that on the house floor, that is why they have these tally clerks crosschecking their notes to make sure they have the same numbers. that is why we have this, they are checking the math because the math and what they announced from the chair has to be official. they do not vote electronically like they do for most vote in the house of representatives so it is not automatic, they do this manually so it takes couple minutes. this is the old-school way. we think the magic number is going to be 217 on this roll call vote. because there were 432, 430 one, we believe, who voted by name. let's break this down.

434 total members, one vacancy, we know ken buck is out, wesley hunt is out, wife had a baby, david thrown, democrat of maryland is out. from 434, to 431. maybe that magic number is 216. that would be enough to win. of kevin mccarthy, it looks like he is 3 votes short. everybody says 218, if you have the house at 435 members. 218 is what you have it is 400 reform evers. we can't give you the actual magic number until you figure out how many people voted for somebody by name. that is why this is tough parliamentary alchemy. it is tough for us to figure. we don't have the official voting sheets in front of us. that is why it is taking so long on the house floor to make sure they have the tallies right as well.

neil: if he is one or 2 shy would they immediately go to a 13 food vote? >> reporter: that is what you are supposed to do but you could have a recess. democrats a couple nights ago stuck together. republicans showed last night they could adjourn the house. that is the other option. you have to adjourn but you have to have the votes to adjourn because the democrats and mccarthy opponents might team together. they think they would have the votes to adjourn. we are waiting for cheryl johnson, let's say it is 213 members can a wesley hunt, ken buck told me he should be back tonight. he went to colorado for a medical issue. that gets you to 215. he still is one short. you could actually wrap this up if you are able to get the universe of 7 people which is a lot better than 20 which is

where kevin mccarthy was. you should be able to get them within range. it seems they are getting there because i was told this morning they thought they could get to about 214. if you are 213 and have wesley hunt and ken buck out, you might be higher than that but it is every single rollcall vote. this could change again because do you have other republicans who need to be out on that side of the aisle? roger williams, his wife, that is an issue. people going up on the democratic side, this changes constantly. neil: we will wait to hear from the house clerk, cheryl johnson. i want to go to general jack keane. why are we going to him? he was concerned about a lot of this because of this whole battle back-and-forth. timing is everything. he says there is a lot that should be getting done in the house and elsewhere.

it is a scary world, don't want the united states government coming to a halt. if it means this is resolved in this vote or the next vote i would imagine that gives you some relief. >> we want all three branches of government functioning, that is our democracy. the legislature has huge responsibilities like the executive branch when it comes to foreign-policy and national security. all that said, i don't think a few days or a couple weeks makes that much difference. we can handle that, frankly, as a nation. as this democratic vote is taking place before our eyes, all issues for the american people to internalize. i think from foreign policy, national security, we are okay. congressman are frustrated at not having their meetings, not getting classified briefings like they would normally get, they are not able to organize

their committees, new committees with new chairs and not able to do all that particularly on the side i am concerned about but a couple weeks here or there i don't think will make that much difference. neil: you are a military guy, one of the nation's best, but it is weird in the house to me that all of this byzantine battle with who is in charge of what, what you need to do the next thing. in the military, you answer to civilian commanders, i get that, but the process doesn't seem nearly as screwed up to me. i am wondering, do you worry about that process especially when it looks so all over the map? >> the military hierarchical system where we issue orders and expect them to be followed is a completely different system to be sure. i don't have much problem with

the democratic process unfolding. i understand the parties have differences and there are divisions within the parties and that is what we are seeing here. i'm optimistic this gets resolved, the business of the united states will get on. neil: the reason i mention it to you, we are waiting to hear from the house clerk but one of the things you were concerned about, maybe not overtly but newer members coming in, some of the freedom caucus conservative members aren't too keen on the money we have been forking over to ukraine. not to say they are against helping ukraine but they are looking at every nickel and dime and some have gone so far as to say that many going over there should be spent here. does that concern you? >> certainly it does. i don't think there is anything wrong whatsoever with political leaders wanting accountability to that money.

there are three inspector generals, treasury, department of state, department of defense, providing oversight, to improve the government accounting office which is the investigating arm of the congress of the united states and there are four bodies looking at that. if there needs to be more accountability, so be it. there should be that. when it comes to military assistance, what our audience should understand and i think most congressmen understand is the military assistance, the money in the budget that is being provided is going to the us defense industry to build back the drawdown of equipment we have taken from our arsenal and given to the ukrainians. that is the defense industry takes that many, the american worker benefits from it and i assume the american economy benefits from it. when it comes to humanitarian aid or economic assistance

which we have provided dollars to, that is a different system entirely and obviously that needs to be looked at very closely. neil: finally, general, we know of this 3 day cease-fire, what the russians are calling it but some say it is a head fake in ukraine. what do you say? >> pretty much. putin did this supposedly around a religious holiday but many people know that ukrainians, many of them, christmas is december 25th, not january 7th. 25, not january 7th. for others in ukraine, it is. if putin was serious the smart thing would be to start it on christmas eve and run it through the orthodox christmas on january 27th going right through new year's, but he's not serious. if you are going to put a cease-fire in place that actually takes days to implement, it is not just pick up the phone and make it

happen, because people have to be repositioned to make it effective, and he issued this 24 hours out. when he did that i knew he wasn't serious. zelenskyy believes it is a ploy and i agree, that is what it is. you call it a head fake, pretty much the same. we 20 thank you very much. hope you have a happy new year. you are looking at the right side of your screen. not just the 566 point advance in the dow but the numbers on the right, 211 votes for hakeem jeffries, the democratic leader, kevin mccarthy, the big story, 213 votes, the highest he has had, the highest he ever got, correct me if i'm wrong, 7 others voting against him. my traditional math, he doesn't capture the prize if you have 431 total voting, that is not official yet until we hear from the house clerk, you would need

216 to secure the deal. you can read those numbers as well as i can, kevin mccarthy would be 3 shy of that. we need to hear them confirm this and if they go into 1/13 vote. 13 could be the charm, the lucky number but if there is continued momentum there. let's go to dan gilleltrude. maybe there was some uncertainty with this. if it is resolved and kevin mccarthy gets what he has long sought, does that remove an element of uncertainty? even ones they wouldn't normally care about? >> the certainty is gridlock. the market knows that nothing is getting done in washington. in spite of the fact you are going to have a fractured republican party.

we see the market focused in on today what is happening with inflation and how will the fed react? that is what matters to investment, not the slideshow in washington dc. that is almost to be expected. are we surprised? neil: around-the-clock coverage of this sideshow continues. i kid. let's say right now it goes to that point, it is kevin mccarthy, he is a wounded leader, he has made so many concessions it limits what he can do but i get what he is saying about gridlock but does that apply to republicans if republicans are limiting what they can do? >> it very much does apply to republicans. there's a limited scope of what government is capable of doing, you have a split congress. gridlock will be the status

quo, 2024, interesting year, we talk about a recession. neil: you still see that? >> i still see a recession. neil: with continued numbers? >> remember, you had 223,000 new jobs, the smallest condition to payrolls in quite some time. neil: you are not buying it. >> nobody talks about it. 145,065% of these jobs came from two areas, education, healthcare as well as leisure and hospitality. that is not good. neil: better to be up then down. >> when you have job gains so narrowly focused, two brought industrial groups, it tells you that you are running out of momentum as far as job creation goes. neil: my mother in law was like that. i am kidding. don't go anywhere. i want to bring in ohio congressman elect, congressman,

you are now congressman elect. it is not resolved until this pic of speaker, the next vote, doesn't look like it will happen with this one. what do you think? >> those 7 will be hard to move. hopefully we can provide a graceful exit, you don't have to vote for kevin mccarthy but you don't have to vote, that would provide the right number to change the math and the right number would be achievable at that point if even a few of those folks didn't vote. and just 2 or 3. neil: interesting what you say, not important they vote for kevin mccarthy but maybe they could do your colleagues are favor if they just don't vote at all. >> correct. that has the net effect of something they tried to prevent which is kevin mccarthy becoming speaker. there may be aside dialogue going on at that point. that is the path with them and then other paths but if you

change the number, the math changes and if you change the vote, maybe there is still yet something that moves some of these people. may be we started the week with most of the rest of that, the other 6 reachable, but there were things that weren't productive or helpful and those wounds can be healed, they flip 5 or 6 of those votes. neil: you know them better than i do. if they weren't budging, what i discovered in the past is they don't easily budget. this supposition they follow that crowd, in this case voting for kevin mccarthy or not voting at all, we might be taking leaps that aren't warranted.

what do you think for this thirteenth vote? >> one of the things i always say, there's a reason no one negotiates with a lighthouse, they are fixed objects. they move past the fixed objects. lighthouses are important, they point out where the rocks are, but a ship navigates off of them and moves away from them, they don't move closer to them, they move away. i hope there is a way to come together in the republican conference but it really is hard to see what would make the move at this point and maybe you reach a point the just like a lighthouse they are fixed and not going to move. neil: that was a good analogy. i will use it and not credit you. very good seeing you. you have to be exhausted. i believe on the phone right now we have congressman jeff andrew of new jersey. congressman elect, good to have

you. you were kevin mccarthy, looks like he had a good show this vote, he might've won, we don't know, once it is official, but it doesn't look like it will be decided on this vote. do you think it will be on the next vote? >> i think there is a good chance it could. we are getting much closer. this is the first time we have had significant forward movement and it wasn't just one or 2 votes. before, nobody was moving, everything was blocked. now, as you know, we had a bunch of people, 11 people move and keep in mind there are a couple folks that aren't on our side because they have an illness, that is something we may have to work with as well but it will change the numbers. finally, i would say, there are some people, a that will be never mccarthy, but i believe there will be a few others that

may certainly be willing to say they will vote present. neil: let me explore that with you. i am looking at these remaining 7. some i can picture maybe, andy biggs is not going to. lauren boebert, definitely not matt gaetz, you know these individuals better than i. matt rosendale of montana, doesn't look like that. i don't think this is a gimme for kevin mccarthy unless some of them to your point opt out and don't vote in the next round. that would appear the only way to resolve this or finish this. in my right? >> they have two choices. they could not vote at all or opt out or they could vote present and present is equivalent to half, doesn't give them a full vote. if they vote for someone else, in other words if they nominate

and vote for somebody else and then vote present or vote present in general. we will have to see. there will be more discussions and negotiations. neil: there's a difference between not voting at voting present. >> correct. neil: thank you, the house clerk, cheryl johnson, on this. [applause] >> the honorable hakeem jeffries of the state of new york has received 211. [applause]

>> the honorable jim jordan of the state of ohio has received four. the honorable kevin hearn of the state of oklahoma has received 3. no member elect, having received the majority of the votes cast, a speaker has not been elected. for what purpose does the gentleman from kentucky rise? >> i rise on behalf of the republican party to nominate kevin mccarthy for speaker of the 118th congress. >> the gentleman is recognized. >> for the past two years, one party democrat will has resulted in multiple crises that are harming americans.

without any oversight or accountability. neil: you know this process by now. for those who regularly follow these 12 votes. they bring out their respective speakers on behalf of the candidate of their choice, in this case kevin mccarthy. you will hear hakeem jeffries get the same endorsement. we could see lesser candidates get that even though it might change itself. back with dan geltrude, interesting develop and for these 7. they could vote present which isn't the same thing but it could again indirectly affect the math and lean it closer to kevin mccarthy. it is a hunch your part. what do you think happens in the next vote? >> that may be the case.

that is a end around towards compromise. they say for the benefit of the country and the party. neil: john. >> some say that major league baseball games take too long -- [laughter] this is ridiculous. i mean -- [laughter] and, in fact, these seven want to have any future in the republican party, they'd better do the right thing and allow mccarthy to win in the 13th round. neil: but you wonder now we get back to whatever happens with the 90 seconds we have left here before i hand it off to my friend and colleague, charles a payne, i'm wondering is he a wounded leader? did he give away too much? we just don't know the details, but are they going to hold him to the fire? >> yeah, i think he is wounded. he's certainly been weakened. listen, he's going to owe a lot of favors, neil, when this is all over with, so that compromise -- neil: wow. what do you think? >> well, he is wounded, mccarthy's wounded, but i think these seven may have not

pulley accounted for the -- fully accounted for the political costs of this type of opposition. neil: remember, that group, they each won their district, to a man or woman, by double digits. they had a comfortable lead. so i'm not saying anyone's bulletproof -- >> right. neil: -- but they might be voter-proof. >> that could be the case. i'm not really sure how close the elections were. did slow berg really win by that much? neil: no, she did not. you're quite right. >> i wonder, this could come back to haunt them. neil: i questioned your economic view, and you quite properly went after me -- touche. this is what's going to play out in the house. guys, i want to thank you very, very much. markets having a fine i'm of this, i think, as both these gentlemen pointed out, focusing on far, far bigger things, but right now close to being resolved in the house. to you, charles. charles: neil, thank you very much, my friend, and happy new year once again.