100 years ago the time with the united states was grappling with the changes that we had is the dustbowl, the depression in the industrialization and how these things would affect our youth and how as a society we will go forward to protect from those things. hope 2023 the year with a the technological revolution to the changes that we had and how these affect our kids and i were going to actually police that going forward in the future. gerry: very briefly they thought 100 years ago people thought they were going to live to be 200, do one of them to be 200. >> no i think half of that would be more than enough. gerry: that's a good way to in the first show of 2023. my things to christopher bedford, laura curran. will be back next week with more, tree in interviews on the "wall street journal at large". thank you for joining us, see you next >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x atfs.

♪ jack otter: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. an increasing number of countries facing food shortages. david on the markets. 3 things investors ought to be thinking about right now. stocks are higher on friday after a goldilocks december jobs report gave investors hope inflation might be cooling. a tough year for tesla but the stock is down to an attractive price. is a close to the bottom or is there more room to fall? outlook for bonds hasn't been better in a decade. how to wedding come to your portfolio. on "barron's roundtable," andrew bary, carleton english and jack hough. the number came in strong but less strong than the previous month.

a wages were not growing as fast as the previous month. what happened to stocks? they were up 700%, 700 points on the dow. is this pessimistic optimism? ben: may be more optimistic on the trading. more jobs is good, the smallest gain in two years, average hourly earnings up 4. 6%, below the forecast of 5%. lower than peak growth last march. we heard about layoffs from amazon, salesforce, lift and meta. numbers are not bad but becoming less good and it could be good for the stock market because investors think the fed will do that. we are logic and poor visibility and worthless speculation. you put it all together.

jack otter: looking at the tea leaves, what are you seeing in the market in 2023 that might give you an indication what is to come? jack hough: are you able to see where the stocks are going up or down? i tell you what, stocks are a better deal and bonds, if you're putting money to work for the long-term. you can be pretty confident. i don't know what happens when you are trading for the rest of the year. stocks mean big moves, tesla got clobbered at the beginning of the week, warner bros. discovery had a monster gain. i mentioned this, this had a terrible year last year, when you look at the free cash flow, this is a company that can generate its own stock market value in free cash flow cumulatively so people -- andrew: it is a tough thing. jack otter: be of a drug

analyst downgraded pfizer saying out it was a big covid come down reducing revenue by $32 billion based on lower sales from the pfizer vaccine. the upgraded merck on a burger outlook. raymond james engineered this. raymond james predicting a 3 p for energy stocks, monster year last year, big year before this. they say the price of texas crude is going from 73 up to one hundred dollars a barrel. another great year, like it or love it? andrew: it could be the worst one this year. the disconnect between the stocks which are relatively strong at the commodity, a bad idea. jack: sounds undecided. jack otter: bad energy is not a problem, the stock got clobbered last weekend also last year. why don't investors love it anymore?

carleton: some say elon is distracted right now, buying twitter, tweeting up a storm about that but it might be time to take a look at tesla. there are caveats. tesla right now trading at 20 times forward earnings, a little head of the market. that is in line with pepsi, visa, a more reasonable valuation than 200 times where it was two years ago. in the tv spot, they are the best option. jack otter: we love to talk politics. are you worried the left will complain a lot is being mean to them on twitter and they are the ones who purchased teslas. the rights do not buy them but cheer him. carleton: when you look at the network effect, the track record in history, probably looking at tesla. that the mystic automakers have ev capabilities but they are ramping up.

it is like an apple product, you get frustrated with your iphone but probably buying one. tesla, people might not like everything about elon musk but if they are in the market foreign ev that is where they are going. jack otter: bond math is interesting. a bad year for bonds means there are more interesting investments. andrew: where you start matters and yields are attractive relative to the last decade. you can get 3% to 5% yields on muni bonds, 6 to 8% on junk bonds, 8% plus inflation is now running below 3% based on the last couple months of cpi numbers. you're getting a decent return above jack otter: i want to ask about mlps, master limited partnerships, pipelines that move oil and gas. what you like them? andrew: they are the best yields in the stock market and covering their dividends pretty well from earnings.

they don't depend on commodity prices, but they are transportation company. jack otter: your negative view on energy doesn't have an effect. nobody likes to pay taxes and muni yields are up. andrew: you can get 4% plus which is a high yield plus tax exemption. i would stick with longer-term bonds. maturing under 5 years they have less appeal. jack otter: you want to look for state specific etfs. why 2023? you see a widespread food shortage. david malpass on how long this could last and the outlook for the ♪ well, the stock is bubbling in the pot ♪ ♪ just till they taste what we've got ♪ [ tires squeal, crash ] when owning a small business gets real,

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jack otter: economists are predicting the world will be in recession by next year. a sharp slowdown is coming and could extend into 2024. joining me from washington dc, world bank president david malpass. thanks for coming on the show. >> good morning. jack otter: explain to viewers what the world bank does. not everyone knows. you give grants and loans to developing nations to help them maintain sustainable growth and you are funded by member states. from your perch you have a good view of the global economy. what do you see for 2023? >> the concern is there's a sharp deterioration and it may be long-lasting. as you think of the impact on developing countries, they are short of a lot of things, money, fertilizer, in some cases, very distressingly, they are short of food. this is a hard year we are

looking at in 2023. my worry is it may extend into 2024. jack otter: i want to ask about the fertilizer and food issue but let's talk the risk of recession. the imf said in 2023 it expects one third of the globe to be in recession. does that align with your views? energy markets are telling us a slowdown is coming? >> that's right. it is a sharp slowdown and it has to do with a host of other factors. one is the interest rate increases. one is investment hasn't been keeping up so there's not enough production to go around. as we look at it, world growth in 2023 of 1.7% that is down sharply from what the world bank thought, it is consistent with the imfs.

jack: supply chains are snarling, de-globalization, rising wages contributing to inflation. >> there is a mix of factors. the increase in production will allow prices to stop going up. demand, consumption in the world is going down sharply. the impact of all of the factors. what needs to be done to bring inflation down is to get a big supply response. it is hard to see that happening. china will have a comeback in 2023 after they do the lockdown, they are an important producer in the world but other parts are not expanding, expanding developing countries aren't expanding enough in their production to bring prices down.

jack otter: let's dig deeper into china. seems like a possibility on the other hand because of the lockdown, covid has not spread. could have a lot of deaths and chinese people getting covid. will that hurt the economic rebound? >> it is hurting now, in december, met with the premier, but we had a lot of discussions about the challenges facing china. when his high youth unemployment. china is looking for ways to bring more people into the labor force. that takes time and as we look at the rebound, they were in covid lockdown for so long, it takes time for the whole economy to adjust. at that time the biggest economies, the us and europe

and japan are not expanding their production substantially either. that leaves us with a grim outlook for poor people. they are depending on growth in the more advanced economies and it is not stepping up enough. jack otter: your fertilizer point, in addition to fertilizer prices increasing, phosphorus in the world, it is important for fertilizer. tell us about the impact of this. >> the raw materials for fertilizer were produced in belarus, those are cut off because they participated in the invasion of ukraine. that is cutting off an important source. another important source of fertilizer is natural gas, used to convert energy into nitrogen

products that provide fertilizer and help plants grow. the reason this is important is fertilizer is needed for the crop yields around the world. right now poor people are being cut off from fertilizer. you have this shortage of food production that extends into 2,023 and maybe into 2,024. that is the big concern. ben: what is the world bank doing for this problem? >> a huge amount. when covid hit and the shortages caused by the ukraine war, the bank has stepped up to dramatically expand the commitments that we made. we are 35% above where the average level of commitments, it has been done in a very short time. we will make commitments of $75 billion in just in just two parts of the world bank.

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jack otter: technology stocks powered the s&p 500 for 12 years, that reversed in 2022 aztec was the biggest drag on portfolios. what is the tech playbook, the cover story of this edition of barron.

a classic behavioral mistake, that stock ones hit $400, has got to get back there. on the other hand some of these companies are incredibly franchises. what is your view of the stocks in that sector? andrew: i keep it stick simple and stick with mega caps. apple, amazon, alphabet are pretty good going down 25% to 50% in the past year and evaluations are getting more attractive, apple at 25 times earnings come out about 17 in line with the market multiple. ben: we said we've never seen company's growing this fast. they've got a real world problem. there has been some separation. two of them have fallen out of the pack. meta and tesla. there are companies you might not expect creeping in. unitedhealth is one of -- it was number 6 or 7 the other day. unitedhealth might be the new tesla. tell me the top 10 companies by market value right now off the top of your head without

looking? andrew: apple, microsoft, alphabet, amazon, berkshire hathaway, unitedhealth, jpmorgan. exxon mobil. jack hough: i bet you are right but it is surprisingly large. carleton: you need to pay attention to the big tech companies are increasingly competing with each other. you have things like who uses microsoft office versus google docs but over the past few months with microsoft going more into artificial intelligence with this chat gpt which could become a contender for competing with google on search. microsoft's being is an also-ran but this has the ability to search for something and doesn't just give you a list of options for what you might be interested in but the answers. jack hough: how many are growing powerhouses and advertising at the same time.

amazon's huge advertising business. apple is strong in advertising. disney and netflix want to sell ads to make their suspicions cheaper. the world's advertising pious fixed. it won't sell and expand, so many companies believe they will gain share quickly and advertising. i expect this show to be a rapid share. jack otter: may be google's share will shrink a little bit. now that interest rates have jumped, tech investors are looking for something different, not so interested in rate profits 10 years from now. it doesn't feel like a kathy wood market. qualcomm -- andrew: her innovation fund is down 80% from its high in 2021, down 60% last year, it is way behind the market over the last 5 years. investing in unprofitable growth companies when concepts don't pan out as a killer for her investments.

jack otter: since 2017 levels, impressive. if it is not those companies, what kind of tech companies are investors favoring? carleton: boring tech. things that help companies run more efficiently. you are looking at solar edge or cloud networking and microsoft. these are companies that have repeated revenues, licensing fees, good earnings visibility for tried and true, solid, boring businesses. jack otter: do we think these companies will have another run like we saw in the previous decade or is it a whole new market? jack hough: i wouldn't catholic would into them the way she's gobbling them up. microsoft, remember when microsoft used to be the bad guy? everybody loves microsoft now. people talk about the others in terms of are they doing this or

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satya nadella jack otter: i'm a cliché but if you put up frosty drug and fireball in front of me i will take the ipa everyday. jack hough: you are not saying a brand. there are 790 beers in their.

they are buying all of these craft beers, not a lot of pricing power and volumes are declining. a new problem, multiple based shots, we have a report from mk am partners, the fastest growing segment and alcohol, fireball cinnamon. 50 ml shots. you see them in a gas station somewhere, the beer, the cooler, these shots at the counter and you say wait a second, they don't have a liquor license, how are they selling liquor? it is mall-based beverages and it could be the largest 2023 increment all alcohol volume gain or and it is going to take share from here. jack otter: we have great actionable ideas. andrew: the energy etf x led, given the disconnect between energy prices and stocks. if you like energy i suggest you consider the commodity etfs

like natural gas which is 50%, uso for oil or the mlps. jack otter: you have a different pick for us. carleton: if you are filling up on malt beverages you might slip into some work out gear. i like lululemon. a tough time for retailers but they have brand loyalty and trading a little cheaper compared to historic averages. if you are buying those things at the convenience store. jack otter: the pockets. carleton: that is not what they are for. jack otter: we will purchase that. thank you, good ideas. to read more, check out this week's addition of barron.com. follow us on twitter, barron online. that is all for us, see you next week on "barron's female announcer: the following is a "leading the way" special presentation. dr. michael youssef: we have a special program for you,