left talks about freedom they mean abortion and very little after that folks are checki catg him politically in becoming independent but the catching on practically in moving out in california to places like florida but also nevada, texas and elsewise florida is a beautiful state being ruined by one party control and its government you could talk about freedom or you want but everybody remembers gavin newsom came close to being recalled enough signatures to put on the ballot and part of his hypocrisy freedom for me but not really locking down and letting down california when he was dining mask was at a five-star restaurant. >> we have to wrap up thank you very much to kellyanne conway and philip levin. his offer as i'll be back next week from switzerl

>> at the 10 sponsored by global x etfs. jack otter: welcome to "barron's roundtable" and where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. best-selling author and nyu professor scott galloway on why the tech industry may never be range in, what layoffs tell us about the economy. a veteran of barron's roundtable of investing experts on what is in store for the market in 2023. abby joseph cohen will be here. we begin with three think investors ought to be thinking about. stocks marched higher as investors grew optimistic about a soft landing for the economy. a rally may the rally may not last. major lenders can tell us about the health of the economy. having a happy new year so far? electric after 150 lightning

named truck of the year. on "barron's roundtable" and, ben levisohn, carleton english and al root. they think they can rain and inflation without tanking the economy. ben: they are saying we can get a soft landing. it would mean recession is avoided, earnings keep going up to the economy is okay as why not? after a miserable 2,022 that is the kind of prediction we are making. jack otter: you don't buy it? ibly17 ben: we are getting a rebound which always happens in january. it has been inverted and inverted for so long that it is sending a signal that has never been an accurate, always proceeds to recession around 9 months and that points to

recession later in the year so market is going up right now. there comes a point we hit that recession and that means all bets are off. up to 25 yield curve don't lie. bulls say we are in an uncharted territory with unprecedented stimulus followed by an unprecedented rate, we is unprecedented too much but maybe it is different this time. ben: it may be. there are all these things we never had before, the fed buying bonds which could mean the signal yield curve isn't what it used to be. i don't think we want to make our investment decisions based on a hope that this time is different. it is one thing i said, this market is great that it is going up and you don't want to not own stocks, but you don't want to think everything is great because it won't be.

jack: we are not only worried about the fed when it comes to markets, we are think about earnings. reports from the fourth quarter of last year started trickling in. carleton: i am always looking at banks. we saw a boring earnings season so far, we saw a lot of them beat expectations on the top and bottom line. they want of a recession, the term mild was used. we saw a lot of reserves in anticipation of this but the biggest banks, jpmorgan, bank of america, just for perspective when banks were building up reserves in 2020, each bank was doing reserve of 3 billion or more. there are definitely risks in the economy but banks feel they are well-equipped to deal with them.

jack: morgan stanley is reporting, they have different passes, leaning into wealth management which is working well. carleton: they may struggle because of what banks reported on friday. there was a huge drop in dealmaking revenue, probably expect to see that at morgan stanley. goldman sachs will be an interesting story because what you have there is slowdown in dealmaking. on friday, disclosed losses they faced in the consumer business, they reorganized business segments in the third quarter, hosting investor day in february. they are trying to breach expectations and might be a tricky quarter. jack: the truck of the year was announced and the winner is? al: the ford 150 lightning. the suv you, the car was a

conventional acura integra but this was passed out since 94. it is independent, not associated with any one publication and a nice win because two of the three were electric vehicles. jack: is this legit or people chasing a shiny new object? al: i try to stay balanced. a shiny new toy. ford f one hundred 50, the best selling vehicle for 40 years, they sell 700,000 of these a year. if they hit their goals, 15% of the f 150s sold would be all electric. that is significant. it's a shiny new toy but has some legs. jack: you say it is not about the award?

al: it doesn't impact the stock. car stocks were dreadful in 2022. tesla is down 65. ford, gm, got off to a great start. you see the same thing another stocks, carnival cruises, people might sell them to realize tax losses, and the january effect. jack: president biden is calling for democrats and republicans to rein in big

jack: silicon valley stumbling, more layoffs are on the way. what does it mean for the tech

industry and the economy as a whole? joining the nyu professor of marketing and author of adrift:america in 100 charts. scott galloway. thank you for joining us from munich. you have been warning for more than a year of the patagonia recession. we've been seeing a lot of layoffs in the tech space. how far. go? do you see that spilling into the rest of the economy? >> i believe it is going to go much deeper. if you look at the increase in hiring, amazon had half a million people in one year. no one had done that before. a lot of these layoffs, back to appointment levels, it is more spectacles and significant. the economy outside of tech employment is at historic highs. as a percentage of nonfarm

payrolls, layoffs are lower than they were pre-pandemic. it makes for good headlines but the reality is employment across the economy is strong, but in big tech it is a lot worse. jack: you have been talking about twitter's mismanagement by jack dorsey. elon musk is trying to run two companies or 3 or four. is tesla at risk? what is ahead for twitter? >> i think it played out. the virus is out of the twitter lab and affected tesla which lost 50% of its value in the last four months. people are looking for reasons to bring it down. it is hard to imagine. i can't think, maybe you can, of another company that went from a $5 billion run rate to now one. 5 million-dollar run rate in a matter of three or four months. the worst acquisition in

history, $45 million for company that is generously worth $10 billion now. it infected tesla. we will see if it infects space x. jack: i have to think microsoft is threatening to unseat facebook. artificial intelligence could snatch being for relevance. could and ai make it a threat to google? >> a great question. even with a $10 billion acquisition, that is is half of 1% solution for the opportunity to gain new life. this isn't a word you hear a lot anymore. if they could create something, i would be shocked if and when they integrate into being, up 20% that day, it almost says to me at the end of the day what

is old is new again and whoever owns cloud and processing power on the front end, a consumer offering that is up and running, still has a lot of power. jack: i want to go to your new book adrift. you explain sweeping long-term trends in the us economy using charts but one point that is in the news right now is the debate over restoring funding to the irs. can you explain in long-term context for us? >> we need 22% of gdp to operate our government. imagine people paying $1 million corporations paid on average 30% taxes. the rest of us would have to pay 9-fourteen%. people would be down with paying that. taxes should come down. everybody needs to pay 150% profits in lower tax domains.

very wealthy people, 99%, have seen taxes go down. one of the reasons is the threat of enforcement has gone down. you are less likely to be audited. you've got to give the republicans credit for representing the top 1% really well. automation and technology resulted in greater audits for simple tax returns, the tax code has gone from 400 pages to 4,000. wealthy people tax filings are complicated, more human capital intensive. when you cut funding what you're saying is your signaling to wealthy people complicate it tax returns that the smart thing to do is cheat on your taxes. it sends the wrong signal. lower and middle income tax filers end up paying more. jack: there are a few areas of bipartisan agreement in washington but one of them is the tech industry, both parties

have specifics been a wall street journal op-ed, biden tried to bridge the gap with three concerns about tech. what do you think of those ideas? >> they make all the sense in the world to. the performance doesn't match the promise we heard about by prison agreement, or desire to reign in big tech. at the end of the day we have to pass meaningful legislation. we see more weaponization of our elections, anti-competitive behavior. i am not hopeful. they've got their intentions from the right place but the music has to match the words, the performance does not match the rhetoric. jack: thanks for your insight, appreciate it. the outlook for the market in 2023 i'd like to thank our sponsor liberty mutual.

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jack: every year for 55 years, barron. top investors and strategist to find out where they are putting their money. joining me, long time member of cristiano amon and, retired goldman sachs partner, abby joseph cohen. you haven't been part of the round table for 55 years but you got a long run with us. >> a long, multi-decade run. i'm delighted to be part of it. jack: this reinforced your optimism about 2023. core pc inflation at 3% by the end of the year and you think we can avoid recession, sounds like the soft landing. >> soft landing is the most likely scenario but one could

never rule out uglier alternatives. what we are seeing is a strong labor market and that is something that will work as a good offset to what the fed decides to do. this is the fed that is now facing inflation data, still higher than they would like about it is coming down and that is something that is helpful. keep in mind it is not only the fed we are seeing a decline in inflation as well, because those supply-chain problems have eased up and there has been a big decline in global energy prices. jack: sounds like a good backdrop for stocks, and you make that case. >> we are starting to thousand 23 with better valuation than we did a year ago. that is of saying the prices fell dramatically big clearly if there are some very

interesting opportunities in various parts of for market. one could argue the fixed income markets are more attractive than they have been in several years. al: on the fixed income, how would you think about allocating based on the outlook for short-term rates. where are the better values? >> if you had asked me this question in a political vacuum, looking at the arithmetic, i would say there were good opportunities in short to intermediate side and we have seen a correction, prices moving of our right direction, in terms of some things that are higher risk. a year ago, 6 months ago investors weren't asking for extra yield for extending the yield curve or this curve.

now that there has been some opportunities, if you ask me there is significant political risk in fixed income markets coming mainly from domestic, political polarization. i am very concerned when so many in the republican side of congress are saying they are willing to see the u.s. treasury go into default. carleton: i am curious if you could speak about other geopolitical risks like china opening up or potential for china could invade taiwan, or the ongoing war with russia and ukraine. >> those are great things to think about. with regard to the reopening of china, there are a couple different ways. we are seeing significant disruption in china because so many people are becoming ill. there is belief among global health experts that the death

toll in china is dramatically higher and the government is indicating, in addition, some factories and cities where there seems to be a shortage of available workers primarily because of illness. ultimately, the assumption on the part of many investors is the reopening of china will benefit the rest of the global economy as supply chains work through their snafus. one important thing you touched upon is whether china is feeling a little bit emboldened in terms of its dealings with taiwan, because of what happened with russia and ukraine. we have to be concerned about this as a global economy. if we add up the semiconductor production that comes out of taiwan which is the world's largest, with chinese semiconductor production, the

world's second largest we are talking 45% of global production, something that would disrupt that would be problematic for everyone, but the eye is on what happens from the military perspective in that part of the world. jack: we are trying to ramp up chip production. thank you for coming on. ♪ well, the stock is bubbling in the pot ♪ ♪ just till they taste what we've got ♪ [ tires squeal, crash ] when owning a small business gets real, progressive gets you right back to living the dream. now, where were we? [ cheering ] sometimes you're so busy taking care of everyone else you don't do enough for yourself, or your mouth. but eventually, it will remind you. when it does, aspen dental is here for you. we offer the custom dental treatments you need, all under one roof, right nearby. so we can bring more life to your smile... and more smile to your life... affordably.

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to you by global x, beyond ordinary etfs. visit foxbusiness.com/cristiano amon. jack: a lot going on in the empire of the mouse. there's a new ceo who is the old ceo and an activist investor shaking things up.

carleton: nelson is the second activist investor to go after disney, some of the issues, we saw the succession failure with iger coming back, cost cutting measures, may be more focused around streaming and looking to get on disney's board and disney's not having it. they reset their board, urging shareholders not to let him on but this is something, a new activist situation targeting a big company. this will go the distance. jack: what he says has some truth to it. they got rid of the dividends. the eps has been cut in half since 2018. will this result in better forms? carleton: not everyone agrees peltz belongs on the board that they like to see the cage rattling. jack: let's go to actionable ideas.

al: sand, gravel, and crushed stone. this is a very difficult market for all the reasons we outlined. i want things with pricing power, stable businesses, boring businesses, things that can do well if energy prices fall. martin marietta, great stock for 5 years, 10 years, good stock for this market. ben: i'm looking at cigna. ad stocks for 2022 are doing well but the good stocks are doing poorly. cigna gained 40% over last year, down 5% this year. looks like a decent time to buy. jack: what about health insurance? ben: that they do. jack: to read more check out this week's addition at barron.com. follow u ...