when you read these things. listen, we already knew sentiment was low. parents do not believe their children are going to have a better financial future than they have. according to pew research, only singapore and israel have a greater percentage of parents who see their children doing better. once your nations have been focused on big government handout, eroding the notion of pulling yourself up by the boot straps, meanwhile, the solutions being put forth certainly at davos include climate change initiatives, collaboration with government, holding false information sources accountable. i mean, that's freedom of speech. it's a problem, really honestly, all of those answers got us into this pickle in the first place. tell your kids them they can have an amazing future, push back against the general narrative because we've heard it all before, and and they deserve that much. at least you should give them hope, because it looks like maybe schools and the government

won't with. over to liz claman. liz: i've always said, you have to take control of your own financial future, because the government might not be there for you. we know that. charles, good idea. thank you. we've got a potentially market-moving interview coming up this hour. in a fox business exclusive, the president of the federal reserve bank with of richmond, tom bar kin, will join "the claman countdown." consumer inflation is well off its highs, and the latest manufacturing data has father-in-law off a cliff. so we will -- fallen off a cliff. should the fed pause its tightening cycle after the january meeting? thom barkin coming up. we do have a mixed picture for stocks, the dow down 342 points, low of the session, a loss of 410. the s&p down 3, the nasdaq has been showing a little bit of muscle, in and out of positive and negative for story. right now it is up 19 points. by the way, in the next 59 minutes the nasdaq could clock

either its seventh win in a row or see its epic six-session winning streak come to an end. right now as we seest up about 20 points. -- it's up about 20 points. but the dow is by far the biggestest percentage loss leader, and if you're looking for the guilty party responsible for that, just go all the way to the bottom of the heat map where goldman sachs' shares are plummeting 6.5% right now after reporting fourth quarter earnings. the bank put in, i don't know, austin, i guess you could say the worst performance, worse than the cowboys' kicker, brett maher, who missed four extra points last night against tampa bay. profits fell 66%, and you could drive a truck through the hole between wall street's estimates of $5.56 and the actual 3.32 a share. and a $10.6 billion, revenue also whiffed coming many $320 million short of expect asians. when an analyst on ceo david

solomon's conference call bluntly asked what went wrong, solomon pointed squarely at goldman's consumer business. here's what he said. >> the simple thing that i would press you on, and i think it's a fair question, is we tried to do too much too quickly. and, you know, of course in the environment that we're in, you know, it's hard to go back to where we started in that the strategy, you know, six years ago. we obviously won't the deposit, the loan business and we talked about a much broader platform, and i think we came to the conclusion that there were some changes. what i think was an outlier, you know, for sure in this environment is a massive, quick swing in asset prices and the impact that our capital market -- and balance sheet-intense business had of course with a drag with some of the investments we're making on other hingings. liz: it's probably the latterrer there because morgan stanley shares are moving in the opposite direction, up 6.3 3%,

after they not only beat on both the top and bottom line, but hauled in about a billion dollars more in profit and 2 the billion more in revenue than goldman did. morgan did not partner with apple on money-losing apple credit card. the tie-up is costing goldman billions, but apple shares at this hour are no worse for the wear, up about 1% right now after the company today revealed new macbook withs powered by whatst calling its, quote, most powerful in-house designed chips. apple says the m2 pro and m2 max chips allow more battery life. let's look at chip makers, it's been a rough day for intel, down about 1.33%, broadcom can -- let's call it flat, slightly higher, qualcomm up a quarter of a percent. the markets are getting a pretty

nice tart to the -- start to the year, but when you compare to germany and france, 9% gains over the same time period. that's year to date. and a new bank of america survey of 253 fund managers says investors are most underweight u.s. equities since 2005 and, quote, it's time to buy the world, because allocation to the u.s. is, quote, collapsing. so let's bring in our floor show traders. joining me now, ceo luke ribari and carnivore trading ceo dutch masters. luke, happy new year. >> happy new year. liz: the goldman issue is sort of singular, right? but there are a lot of people saying go into emerging markets, go into europe because they are really poised to run will be. >> yeah. this reare minds me of the dogs of the dow. remember that thing, the ones that are down the furthest you should buy? but also the dollar's really backed off, and that really hurt those markets. we are looking at emerging market stocks, but 50 president of the s&p gains come from

overseas. pick some u.s. names that have a lot of business overseas that can benefit from that. there's some names that we like. liz: such as? >> we like coca-cola, nike's another one, microsoft. and with what's happening with the u.s. expect chip socks that i know you've been focusing on, chip stocks are now more than technology, they're defense, they're national defense, and there's some chip companies now that no longer deal with china, and the u.s. is basically forcing other countries to buy -- liz: you like invidia, right? >> love nvidia. liz: all right. dutch, you had shorted the nasdaq 100 last year, it was an epic trade. it had your fund up more than 300% -- [laughter] which is quite impressive considering the s&p had father-in-law, as we all know. do -- fallen, as we all know. do you look at side window opportunities? you have a different prism through which you scrutinize. >> well, yeah. you know, i really agree with luke on just about everything he said including the chip world.

trader z, our resident genius here, has been pounding the table on chips here, and he completely agrees with what luke just said about the chips becoming a national defense issue. we're, we are short only one sector right now, and that's the, that's the marine shippers, and we're very selective there. they're kind of hanging out, they look like they rolled over a little bit, but the rest of us are really getting a little more positive, liz. i know that's shocking coming from us. but, you know, after a year of talking about the negative and, i mean, frankly, it just gets a little old, right? the market gets a little tired of it. we really like come off the bottom, slingshot trade that we think is being set up. we call it the slingshot because you have great companies like amazon or salesforce.com, they have fantastic businesses, they're cutting their expense lines, they're cutting their -- everything that they have, they're cutting back. maybe for the first time in 10

or 20 years. and this protects the near term eps numbers, but it really sets up a slingshot down the road when things turn. liz: okay. so here becomes the question, he's got salesforce, amazon, duo lingo, arthouse, marathon digital holdings. luke, we have seen suddenly quite a sign of life from crypto, and our investor audience is somewhat skeptical in some cases because a lot of people have gotten burnt. dutch likes marathon, which is a miner. >> yeah. liz: mare horntion the crypto miner, not marathon the oil company. when you look at bitcoin right now, it is $21,362 after languishing around 16,000. any trades here, or as a longtime trader, what's your gut reaction? >> we're staying away from bitcoin. as you mow, we had a mining and trading operation in bitcoin, but we've been out of it for a couple years. liz: did you make money before you got out of it?

>> we did. but right now we just don't want to be involved in it. there's just too much going on, and i think there's other opportunities. and, again, another way you can play crypto are these chip stocks, but not all the chip stocks. last year we created a structured product around the chip stocks that gave them a little bit of a buffer, and we picked some names. liz: dutch, you like as one of the dow components crm, of course, that's salesforce. we didn't even talk about disney yet, in the headlines once again today. and earlier -- i've got to check it now, but it had been moving higher. i hay came out swinging against the activist investor, nelson peltz, who pounced last week saying he wants a seat on the board. disney if is up about 1% at the moment, $100 and change, annual high is 157. there are pretty dramatic, in fact, they're saying that nelson peltz does not understand disney's business. you'd rather go with salesforce as a dow component if here.

>> i would. i have to tell you that they're so -- it's a messy situation over at disney, so i'm trying to stay away from the mess. and getting back to the bitcoin thing, there's so much pomo going on -- fomo going on, we looked at this just as a nice trade off the bottom. but the fact is that bitcoin at $21,000 can go to 30 or 40,000 a lot faster than people think. you have to be the really careful with these stocks because they can burn you really bad. you can get trapped really bad. liz: indeed. >> but it's a more speculative the raid, for sure. liz: well, dutch, that's why we have you on. and, luke are, so great cosew you -- to see you once again. is trader z related to mr. x, dutch? [laughter] >> trader z's our top secret weapon. [laughter] liz: all right. it's great to see you, gentlemen. thank you so much. one of the nation's most widely followed investors is now turning his eyes east.

dan niles sees japan's move to effectively end its long-held zero interest rate policy as a golden opportunity. so dan is about to give you the ticker of the bank he says is best positioned to capitalize and punt the stock higher. with the closing bell ringing in 49 minutes, if you care about your money, you're in the right place. "the claman countdown" is coming right back. dow jones industrials lower by 328. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq,

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getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. liz: okay. so nasdaq is still on track for its seventh win in a row. we're watching it closely, up 21 points. markets starting off the new year mt. green, but we wanted to

show you the russell9 and the dow transports, both punching up above 7%. the russell's just at 7%. nice gains for both of them. what does this mean for investors as you spread it out to the entire market picture? are all the troubles in the 2022 rearview mirror? hold up. i i want to bring in one of the most widely followed investors in on wall street, senior portfolio manager dan niles. one of the few, i point out, dan, who not only beat the s&p's dismal 19 percent decline last year, but your fund made money. you said last year that the s&p falling 20% was very likely, you were right. now tell us what you think it's going to do this year. >> i think there's a lot of risks, liz, in the first half of the year because last year was really about the multiple coming down for the market as inflation turned out not to be transitory, and the fed has to be really aggressive. i think this year it's about those interest rate hikes that we saw from the fed last year impacting earnings, and i think you're going to see that when

the big tech giants start to report earnings next week and they have to give their initial guidance for 2023, and i think it's going to be a lot less than what people are expecting, and you've still got high multiples. for us, we think there's actually a fair amount of downside risk when that starts to occur because earnings at the end of the day, it's one of the two components for a stock price, right in. liz: you care to put a percentage drop can on it? >> yeah. i mean, i think downside on the s&p 500 is down to 3,000, so you take earnings of 200. by the way, earnings for 2023 had started off at $252 then starting in about july of last year they started to come down. now they're at about $226. i think, ultimately, they'll be at 200 which is about where during a recession earnings should drop by. and then you put a 15 multiple on it which is the average over the last 70 years when cpi and inflation measures above 3%, you know, 15 times that 200 gets you

to about 3,000, so i think that's the downside risk -- liz: so you're in the dow 3,000 camp. that's a long way to fall. what are you buying at this moment? you're kind of defensive now, aren't you? >> yeah. but i think there's some very interesting ideas in the market at the same time. so, you know, the famous saying this is always a bull market somewhere -- liz: always. >> and there's a few things that i think are interesting. number one, last year we said coming into the year that our favorite investment was cash. and, but, you know, you look back and you say, all right, well, cash at that time, 3-month treasury bills you could get .03 of a percent. today you can get about 4.5, 4.6% in a 3-month t-bill. so this whole thing of there is no alternative that many people refer to, now there is a really great alternative. health care is another space where if you look at the xlv, that was only down 4% last year. my investment theme there is

really easy, no one wants to di- [laughter] so you're going to have a lot of people going back to the doctor. i'm setting up a congress, you know, full physical. i haven't had one many four, over three years since covid. liz: dan, go see the doctor. [laughter] wait, can i just ask you about the 3-month treasure truely bill here? it's yielding about 4.62%. so when you say cash, i just like to clarify for our investors, that's not around the mattress, that's still park it in the 3-month? >> yeah. yeah, park it in the 3-month because that gives you flexibility, right? you're getting 4.6%, and you can see the impact of these fed hikes. you don't have to rye to be a hero and step in -- step many front of the market because, remember, there's a reason people call it the santa claus rally and the january effect. when the markets get pummeled, typically you get a nice little bounce, get it in the most oversold segments of the market,

but you're going to have earnings coming. and is that's where the risks and problems start. yeah, there's no reason to step in front of that when you get 4.6% in a 346 month treasury bill -- 3-month treasury bill, and that's not a bad return. liz: we talked about the fund managers survey where investors, according to this survey, are the least allocated to u.s. equities since 2005. and the bank of america analysts are saying buy the world. you're looking specifically at japan. now, japan has been holding interest rates near zero for, god, who knows how long. it's been a disaster. but this week the japan central bank is meeting, and it may very well effectively end its zero interest rate policy because it is, it's got this yield curve policy control that they the may prix up. so what is -- free up. so what is your trade and why? >> sure. if you think about what happened in the u.s. in 2021 when inflation started to pick up,

the u.s. bank stocks can did incredibly well because just think about it, right? how does a bank make money? lending. well, you can't lend at any if kind of reasonable rate when interest rates are incredibly low. so if you look at japan, what's been going on there, hay started quantitative easing back in 2013. they started yield curve control in 2016. their 2 the-year treasury bills haven't been in positive territory the since 2015. so if you look at the biggest bank in japan, mitsubishi financial group, ticker symbol mufg, we think that stock can do up incredibly well much like the u.s.en financials in 2021 when you first had yields really starting to move up. that stock is down 27 the % through the the end of -- 27% through the end of last year. the nikkei's up 100%, the s&p's up over 230%. so there's a lot of catch-upyou can lend money and actually make a reasonable interest rate

lending. and so that's why it's probably our most interesting trade, and it's also a derivation of what hay call the widow make per trade, and your viewers can look at that on dan niles.com. liz: mufg, in case anybody missed it. dan, we've got to ask you about tech. lawmakers have banned tiktok on government phones. tiktok was sort of the big, bad wolf staring down the u.s. social media companies like meta and snap. put aside the fact that snap got a downgrade, you're liking meta still. okay, so tell me what it is that makes you say that's the one to invest in now. >> well, you have to remember when they probably got hurt more than anybody else by two things, what you said rightly, tiktok and then policies of 3r50eu6s at apple. and if you look at where the multiple is, it's the at about 13 times. so we started buying this in the low 90s right after they came out after the september quarter

and gave that horrible guidance. but you've got to remember that was their expectations of what they planned on spending. that's pulley under their coal. -- fully under their control. the product that they have that competes with tiktok called reelz, that went from a $1 billion annualized run rate revenues in the june quarter to $3 billion in september quarter. so people are using that product, they like that product. there's no problems with user growth, there was no problems with engagement which, quite honestly, surprised me. the big problem was how much hay planned on spending. and at a 13 pe now versus a google at 17, 18 times, i can be short, you know, a google, be long a meta, because they're both going to be affected by an advertising slowdown and a recession which is what i think we'll see this year. but you're just trying to, remember, we're a hedge fund, and so all we need is some -- [inaudible] between those two the. les dan, we've got to run, but a quick answer here because we've got tom barkin of the richmond federal reserve coming up in an

exclusive interview. are you seeing a recession on the horizon here this year? >> absolutely. i think it's going to be very hard to avoid that. we've got all the factors listed on our web site. you can go if to that to get it. but, yeah, i think it's going to be incredibly hard to avoid it because you've got 4 million more job openings than people unemployed, so i think you're going to have to show the economy down a lot to get wage inflation under control. liz: and there are reports microsoft is going to institute more layoffs. dan, good to see you, thank you very much. dan niles. we're going to put his picks and his thesis up on facebook.com/liz claman. billionaire elon musk facing a one-two punch of challenges at hour involving his two highest profile companies as twitter's paris debt payment looms -- first debt payment looms and the trial over the tesla tweet that got him into boiling hot water. we're going to get you all the details straight ahead. closing bell, 37 minutes away.

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♪ liz: we should punch up roblox at this hour, jumping 12.6%. turns out interest in gaming has not died down since the pandemic. the stock is on the move at this hour after the company's december 2022 metrics report

showed estimated bookings grew 17 to 20% and daily active users jumped 18% year-over-year. roblox, this is the one that enables users to build, operate and publish 3-d games, uses the term bookings as a proxy for revenue numbers. roblox also general rated money from sales of its general currently called are robucks. at least its virtual currency is making money. keep in mind, the stock has lost 58% over the last year. carvana extending its multisession run, it is moving higher by 4.5% at the moment. now the online car dealer says it has adopted a, quote, poison pill plan to preserve tax losses. basically, carvana has set into motion a shareholder rights plan aimed at deter thing investors from accumulating more than 5% of the company's shares. carvana says the strategy is swebledded to reduce the chance that an investor would threaten the company's ability to use its

significant net operating losses to reduce potential future tax bills. carvana is facing a debt crunch as sales slow. but the stock has skyrocketed 56% this month as has meme stock fave bed bath & beyond which, while struggling mightily against mounting losses, is up 60% year to date. let's look at chinese ev maker xpeng. it's on the move at the moment, down 6.5% after the company lored the sticker price on its g31 base models by 12.5% to about $22,000 in china following tesla's price cuts announced earlier month. according to data the are from china merchants bank international, tesla's average daily sales in china during the january 9th-15th period jumped 76% from the same period in 2022. so ceo elon musk's discounting strategy appears to be stoking sales, and the stock which is

popping 7.33% right now. if while things might be going well for musk in china as far as tesla's concerned, he's got a double dose of nightmares here at home. financial times is reporting that twitter's first interest payment on the debt that elon took on to buy the company could be due as early as this month. now, musk financed the $44 billion deal to buy twitter by borrowing $13 billion from various banks including morgan stanley and bank of america. now twitter has to pay back roughly $1.5 billion every single year in interest payments. so that could pose a real problem since twitter lost $221 million in 2021 and a lot of advertisers, by the way. the ft says the payments may force musk to sell more of his tesla stock to make those payments. that doesn't help tesla. or even file for twitter bankruptcy. this all comes as jury selection begins today the in a california

court over musk's 2018 tweet about taking tesla private. a tweet musk said was a joke, but regulators were not laughing. kelly o'grady joins us live in the fox business l.a. bureau with how this trial could play out. what are you expecting and what are we seeing? >> reporter: yeah, absolutely. i mean, i think you make -- i did want to touch on that interest payment -- a good point about that. because he already sold close to $23 billion in tesla stock last year. that spooked shareholders. and now beyond that interest payment he could be nation an even bigger draw on his billions. it's a class action lawsuit,it doesn't go his way. as a refresher, the tweets go back to august of 2018, and musk stated that he was, quote, considering taking tesla private at $420 per share and that funding had been secured. he followed that up saying, quote, shareholders could either sell at 402 -- 420 the or hold shares and go private. investors bought up the stock on his messaging, and the price

closed up 11% that day. but those gains were quickly wiped out and then some when that funding came into question. in court filings and interviews since hen, musk maintained he was being truthful. the plaintiffs contend he was always aware what would have been at the time a $72 billion would never go through, and heir claiming his comments cost them billions. going into the trial already a number of headwinds against the billionaire including the judge has ruled these statements that he made in those tweets were false and it's important that the jury's going to have that content going into those deliberations. liz, i've spoken to a number of securities fraud lawyers, and they shared the odds don't look good for elon. the question is more how much he'll be forced to pay and what damage a public trial will do to the tesla brand and stock price, liz. liz: well, for the moment, tesla's climbing back off the floor. we shall see. kelly, thank you very much.

keep us posted on jury selection. it is the question market watchers want to get the answer to very most. have we hit peak inflation. and if so, is the fed ready to slow its rate hikes sooner rather than later? we're going inside the federal reserve's interest rate setting committee with richmond fed president tom barkin the, he joins us live in a fox business exclusive. and eric he grand was living the dream as a star defensive tackle for rutgers university when he suffered a devastating spinal cord injury against army in a game. it left him paralyzed from the neck down. but he did not twit. -- quit. that never quit attitude led him to an unlikely career as a, as a businessman and as a sportscaster and so much more. oh, yes. his inspirational story just cropped on my podcast today. you've got to hear it. apple, google, spotify, wherever you get your podcasts.

it will really, i'm pretty sure, make you reassess any complaints and excuses you've ever had or given about success and why you may not have reached it. you've got to hear eric's story. closing bell ringing in 25 minutes. dow jones industrials still down about 362 points. we are coming right back with an exclusive interview. richmond fed's tom barkin. ♪ ♪ finish ♪ ♪ engineered to elevate the senses... touch, sight, sound, and scent. it's the electric that recharges you. the all new, all electric eqe sedan from mercedes-benz.

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inflation number the federal reserve will, no doubt, scrutinize before its next meeting in two weeks. the december ppi, manufacturing data for the nation, is expected to show signs of cooling month over month, and we will also get consumer spending for fall, to fall for a second straight month. so considering today's data, that miss in the empire index which, yes, is arguably regional, could tomorrow the's numbers if they come in a lot weaker drastically impact the path of the federal reserve? bank of retch monday -- richmond's president tom barken joins us now -- tom barkin joins us now. we've got a real number with the empire index, and we know that cpi certainly slowed month over month, and it has come well off the june highs of spiking 9 plus percent. so maybe we just should begin with this: will the fed, if those e numbers come in a lot weaker, be almost forced to change the that trajectory and

ease a lot sooner than expected? >> well, the numbers i'm watching closely, of course, start with inflation and also the labor market. and we got a very healthy labor market report a week ago, a 3.5% unemployment is a 53-year low. so on a broad scale, demand side still seems to be healthy. and while last month, last week's cpi did come down and that's welcome, the median is still much higher than what i'd want to see. liz: yeah. cpi was definitely in the 6.5% area which is way off what we had seen from even november which was 7.1%. but i guess the real pin ifpointed question here is -- can pinpointed is has inflation peaked from where you sit? >> i hope so. we've seen very encouraging news over the last three months. you know, the elements like used cars which had escalated aggressively early during the

pandemic had to revert at some point. and it's finally starting to happen that they have reverted, and that's, of course, taken a big chunk out of the reported inflation readings. i think shelter has peaked as well, it seems to, and so coming in the next coming, several months we ought to see that come off its highs as well. so my hope is we have seen peak inflation if behind this absent some extraordinary exogenous event. liz: i'm hearing that you and the fed, and, by the way, you're not a voting member this time around. you and the fed if are waiting to see unemployment come up, employment start to weakennen because we still have many, many job openings before you will say that we should ease. so let's just say that the9 ppi tomorrow comes in a lot weaker than expected. is there a chance that the fed will stop hiking rates after this january move? -- meeting? >> well, my focus starts with

inflation. you mentioned employment. it started with inflation. liz: okay. >> and i think hard about median inflation or trimming, whatever version that shows the breadth of inflation. and that's still far too high. and, to me, employment's a useful indicator of demand, but, yeah, the inflation reads are the things i focus on. and for me to want to pause, i'd want to see inflation convincingly back to our target. liz: we just had dan niles, an investor, say he absolutely sees a recession this year. there seems to be a massive battle on wall street. we know that many banks are -- and their analysts -- are saying, yes. goldman sachs says no recession in 2023. larry fink of blackrock on friday said it will probably be a mild recession but there's a high probability of that. if the data continue to show cooling, would you agree that we are going to see a mild recession? >> well, somebody said -- it's something i read -- this is the most predicted potential

recession in history. there's a lot of predictions on it. but yet timeline keeps getting pushed out, and it keeps getting pushed out in part because the data remains relatively healthy. demand, employment, spending, investment, they all remain, you know, relatively healthy. the way i think about it is this: most of the businesses i talk to have a recession playbook, they've taken it out of the draw can, updated it. they may have even started working on page 1 of the playbook, talking about a hiring freeze or reductions, talking about discretionary spend. but they're not turning to the back half of the playbook yet, and the reason they're not is that, first of all and maybe foremost, hair own demand remains relatively solid. if you look at our cfo' survey, people's expectationings for their own businesses are still actually pretty healthy. and having worked really hard for the last 18 months to find workers, they're just really reluctant to cut back and go into the same old spiral. so it just keeps getting pushed

out. liz: there is the accusation that the fed is reluctant to back off on hiking interest rates because there's already been a mistake, and that was that the federal reserve waited way too long to the start tightening rates. we were no longer in an emergency situation. so jay powell and company do not want to make that second mistake by easing up on interest rates too early. but does that not concern you at all, that that we may see the fed go a little bit too far and ooh aggressively, and what do you say should be the terminal rate? because we've heard everything from 4.9% to 5.5%. >> well, aye certainly taken a lot of time in trying to dig into the '60s, '70s and '80s and figure out what i could learn from them. and the thing i learned is you just can't declare victory too soon, right? if you back off while inflation is still elevated, it'll come back ever higher the next time meaning you've got to do even more damage to take control of

it. so i'm not in favor of backing off too soon. i want to see inflation and median trimming, compellingly headed back to our 2% target. i think that's the lesson of the '70s, and that's what you want us to do. liz: terminal rate though? what's your call right now? >> it depends on inflation. you know, i think as long as inflation stays elevated, we need to continue to move the needle to tighten, if you will, ever more. and the terminal rate will depend on what happens to inflation. liz: tom tom barkin of the richmond federal reserve bank, thank you very much for joining us. we really appreciate it. >> thanks, liz. good to be with you. liz: happy new year. dow jones industrials taking a leg down at this moment, down about 408 points. tom barkin saying though that it's the encouraging, the inflation news over the past three months has looked better, hope that the peak is in the past. we are at session lows at the moment, down 412 and dropping. we will be right back. ♪

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♪. liz: you just heard richmond fed bank president tom barkin tell "the claman countdown," that the federal reserve, certainly from

his perspective inflation come lower than it is before stopping rate hike tightening cycle. wall street bracing for more layoffs as the fed continues to tighten and deal-making landscape remains barren. charlesgy gas. >> perfect segue. i spoke with several wall street executives today. fed will continue to tighten until they get their target. liz: sounded like that from the richmond fed president. >> for some reason the market doesn't believe them. i don't know why. liz: the market is down, session lows. >> it was higher last week. it is bouncing around on you know, irrational exuberance that they might stop and pause. if, if you don't think it will stop and pause, i don't think they will -- liz: they're not going to. >> we have to take a 6% cpi down to two. much higher rates. that will filter through wall street. i can tell you wall street is counting on them not stopping.

so they're counting on the deal slowdown to continue. so what i'm hearing, this, i think you can put all the banks in it, goldman, maybe the most, because they staffed up the most. liz: they whiffed on earnings. >> but they staffed up the most in 2021 and early 2022, when the fed was printing money before rate hikes. that is at the far end of the layoffs. but everybody, from what i understand is planning a series of layoffs through at least the end of this year. that that will be the mantra out of wall street, unless you know, you have some wicked turn around in deals which probably won't happen in a rate increase environment. jpmorgan, morgan stanley, by the way if you looked at morgan stanley earnings, buried in the release, there was charge of for layoffs. they didn't make a big thing but it was there. liz: nasdaq turned negative. >> on your report on the fed

governor. i bet my thumb on this one. your story, we didn't want it to go negative but they're related. morgan stanley, goldman sachs, citigroup, even more, larry fink is cutting staff, go down the line, everybody is planning cuts for 2023. you know, listen, in the old days, meaning in 2021, all those millenials and gen-xers run around i want to work three days from home. if you work three days from home, you might as well work five days from home. there is a good chance. liz: at home, without a job. >> you will get laid off. we're on the other end of the downturn on wall street. it is usually, liz, i am sure you will have a guest that you ask this, usually foreshadowing what is considered a recession in the broader economy. that is what wall street generally does. usually means markets go down, usually means, risk-based assets, meme stocks, crypto,

depends on the crypto. maybe a flight to quality from tbc. other ones usually problematic. keep that in mind as you knave gate the waters. liz: charlie gasparino thank you. >> my thumb is still there? liz: your thumb is still there. give it a few days you never know. ppi tomorrow. >> four minutes away. nasdaq turned negative as we said moments ago, richmond fed president tom barkin said on claman "countdown" he is waiting for inflation to come much lower. what happens there? he waits for that. they do not want to make a second mistake by easing up on rate hikes too soon. today's "countdown" closer, so i don't know if you guys noticed, the laggards on the nasdaq 100 were three chinese stocks. but our closer is betting on china reopening that trade, however, she is not doing it by picking chinese stocks. how do you do that? let's ask the executive vice president and portfolio manager at alger. her company manages

$12.9 billion in assets. great david alger, a good friend of mine. we miss him. we miss him. you like the china trade. you're not picking chinese stocks. >> there are ways to play china not necessarily china but they have relevance to china being the relative to the consumer. las vegas sands 2/3 of their profitability before covid occurred came with the mass market chinese consumer. as the chinese consumer comes back and travels -- liz: goes to macau. >> goes to macau their profitability will rebound over the next couple years. liz: you believe that is opportunity without that worrisome exposure that xi xinping might put the hammer down on chinese companies getting too big for their britches when it comes to capitalism. he has put the thumb downs speaking of charlie's thumb, he has definitely done that. that has hurt the stocks depending on the headlines. what else, is there another way

to play this? >> absolutely. there is another company we reich transdim. they make wigits for airplanes. think seatbelts, after-market parts wigits. liz: tray tables. >> tray tables. spark plugs. transdim are miles correlated to how many miles flown. as china knee consumer comcast, travel is down 60% from pre-covid highs. transdigm should benefit. liz: it is very dangerous, depending on headlines coming out of china to have chinese stocks although they had incredible run-up in. there is profit in billy billy, jd dot-com. of the luxury market, that has in the past has been a sweet spot for the chinese consumer

gaining income. lvmh hit a record a week ago. you like this name. specifically why? >> we do. we have liked the name for a long time. it isn't just the china reopen. however over the next year we think it's a kicker to their growth. in part because again, the chinese consumer has been locked down unable to travel. the euro right now is 20, 30% cheaper than we went into the lockdowns. and we do expect that chinese consumer is going to hop on a plane and go buy their lv bag. the interesting thing about lv, a family of different products. they have taken 20% price in last two years. we expect another pricing increase next year. liz: that goes to positive more margins. thank you for joining us. come back again. >> thank you. [closing bell rings] liz: the s&p and the dow open the trading week lower. nasdaq makes it seven straight winning sessions up 16 points. yes, the dow off the lows of the session.