neil: welcome back. taking a look at a big selloff. we are at session lows. inflation might not be the problem. maybe recession is and we always work that goldilocks balance. we liked it with reports that showed inflation was ebbing or slowing and then we get data to say that is humbling and sows the economy. for retail sales, to what is happening and big regions of the country like the new york area, contracting at 32%, you haven't seen that in a number

of years. that setting up to a lot of people worried about the fed's next move, too late, we are done, we are finished, the economy is tanking. it is certainly the pitch at the corner of wall and broad. madison? >> reporter: the latest retail sales never show the economy is slowing. retail sales fell more than expected by one. one%. that was not only the biggest monthly decline of 2,022, it also shows consumers cut back at the height of the holiday season. this is the second consecutive month of falling sales, major indices down as recessions build the market. amazon trending down on the day, following retail sales numbers and the news the the new round of job cuts is starting, 18,000 people will be given the boot in the retail division in the human services

division at amazon. that represents 60% of their corporate employees. as the economy softens it look like inflation is doing the same. the producer price index declined 0. 5% for the month of december, more than the dow jones estimate of 0.1% decrease. the decline was the biggest on a monthly basis since april 2020. it could show that even though inflation is very high it may be easing. the biggest factor to bring down inflation was a sharp drop in energy prices but that is creeping back up again. nonetheless, president biden is celebrate the new saying in a statement, quote, today we received evidence that we are making progress, tackling inflation and lowering costs, successfully transitioning from historic recovery to steady and stable growth. after this ppi report and week retail sales numbers, the 10 year treasury yield fell below

3.4%, the lowest since september. a sign that investors are worried about growth and looking for a safe haven. a little flight to safety buying on the data. more sign the economy is laying off 10,000 workers. microsoft, the latest in a string of tech companies looking to downsize. the cut will be 5% of its workforce. the companies hoping to trim costs amid economic uncertainty and refocus their priorities. lee 20 thank you for that. neil: thank you for that. i don't want to make a deal of it but there's a protest going on outside, don't know what they are upset about, might be anger about the big-money showing up now. it is supposed to debut monday. talking about a big development, we have jackie

deangelis here. i always think when they come to fox, i never see conservatives running over to rockefeller center, cnn. >> this is a taylor fan club. we are celebrating. neil: a big selloff today. how do you put that in perspective? the first thing you think of is wait a minute, markets have this easy inflation thing. made a we've got the perfect balance. than something happened. >> they get nervous about recession. look at today's data, inflation comes down, that is good news. that is driven by the fact that oil has come down. that the china closing story. china is reopening, what is going to happen to inflation? the retail sales number, that

consumer pulled us through and seemed to be softening a little bit. if those guys let up, what happens to this economy? neil: when you look at this, the numbers were not that awful but surprised on the downside. >> there seems to be a disconnect between what the market wants versus what the fed think of a terminal rate of 5%, the bond market is telling you that we don't buy that for a second and you have to cut a lot faster than we think. a little bit of a reaction, stocks go up and stocks go down, some of the weakness in the economic data could contribute to it. raising the point on that, the consumer is weakening but not

ready to wave the button yet. we heard from bank of america's ceo that 90 day delinquent credit cards are nowhere near pre-pandemic levels so the pricing in the consumer slowing but not ready. neil: when you hear company layoffs, microsoft sounds bigger but 5% of its workforce, 18,000, amazon, losing half of a 1% of its -- do they get nervous? is that a self fulfilling prophecy? >> you see big numbers like that from tech companies, the headlines in the last 6 months or so, the numbers start to add up not to mention the fact that you are seeing it trickle into other industries as well. in august, jerome powell, it hasn't happened to the degree it has to in order for him to get this economy under control.

people have to buckle up and this year. it will be a bumpy ride. the bank is missing earnings, another indication, the ceos are saying we think there will be a recession. 2023 is not going to be an easy year. neil: normally we -- most of the time, are we going to see that now? >> it is not lining up great for us right now. it is so weird. look at market watchers, every one of them trying to figure out is the fed going to pivot by the end of this year? is there hope that rates start going down? if that is the case -- you look up at the treasury and the way the market reacts especially in the early part of this year, people are betting that jerome powell won't do what he says he's going to do.

neil: hasn't he already been doing it whether you support that strategy or not, i don't know if it is wise, he is doing it. i can't see him doing a 180. >> monetary policy operates in a lag. on average economists say it takes 18 months for that to filter through the economy. don't get me started on 50s, 475s in a row followed by 55 or whatnot. all those rate hikes have to work themselves through the economy. the market is waiting to find a way to settle in and see the end of all that workine finding stability. neil: you were mentioning ceos and their mood, keeping cards close to their vest but some of the things they were preparing for we saw exercised in goldman

sachs or free coffee, i am wondering what is next, do they build on that? they are the dealmaking firm and there are no deals to be had. >> that is the question and we have to watch that play out in the next 12 months or so. what we hear is they are being very cautious and trying to remain nimble so they can depend on what happens. the volatility in the stock market is exemplary of that move, how investors heal as well. when it comes to the overall picture brian made a great point about oil prices going back up. we are in a slow period. you up in china, we hit the summer driving season, oil is at 180. nothing changed on the supply side. the consumer -- i also agree with that. i've been waiting for the consumer to crack. you can't call it specifically

but feels like it will happen. the consumer without spending during the holiday season, that says a lot about the sentiment, they've blown through the savings. neil: they were disappointing. what do you think? >> if you are not spitting at christmas time, that is when people say i am out of money but it is christmas. at christmas time, they are saying i've got to pull back. what does that mean for january, february or march. i can't see people going out and laying down a box for the big purchases. that is gold foreboding. >> we say that you're for high prices is high prices. high prices start to come down because consumers -- that is the moment they feel more comfortable spending. they have a relatively decent cushion, the ceo -- there is somebody in there. certainly if there is some softening -- >> jamie dimon said the bank and what he is seeing on the

consumer side, his interview with maria, he shifted his tone and backed off of the economic hurricane language and used the consumer to your point. neil: has ever been -- this is the motif you have. obviously you disagree in some cases. >> that is what we do. >> people want to see a conversation, and from that you get an idea and a hard decision. neil: you are all smart people. apologies to you, when i screw up your stellar backgrounds at least i didn't have the indignity of embarrassing you on the air. you are so off the top, i look forward to it. all of you. i have always kidded with the

brian. wish i had professors like him in school, he is so much younger than i am. as a 2 year old, i wish you well on monday. the big-money show, 2:00 p.m. . don't forget at 6:00 pm, we have dagen mcdowell. they are already counting syllables. i am kidding. it is a joke. but as you have been seeing in the promos they mean what they say. they really care, financial channel -- you forget that. this is about people. they've never forgot that. i am getting ready on monday. and their our comes up, i have a few hours until my next show on fox news.

i will enjoy drinking game, i hope after that our, completely trashed. >> the surprise -- neil: we are always looking out for you. they are not looking out for you. they are. >> we are. neil: you are watching fox business.

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neil: i know you can't hear this at home but i can. i am easily distracted. what is that? there is a big protest going on outside. >> it is a rally for me. they heard i was going to get fired, this went around the internet and those are my fans out there saying storming the bastille. neil: this is a free country, but you and i don't run over to rockefeller center or cnn. >> equinox is at rockefeller center. neil: there is our steak restaurant near their. anyway, if it gets really loud, you are not hearing this at home, we have microphones.

we came up with very choice rhymes but can't repeat them. actually, they are nasty lines. let me ask you a little bit. you have been following the money in politics and i always try to follow who is getting it, who is getting money drawn to them, and florida governor desantis keeps popping up there. charles: he has been meeting regularly with people to give them campaign contributions before he was running for president, when he was running for governor but what i am hearing from big-money players in florida is he is inching, moving forward with a likely run for president. neil: trump is in the race. charles: he pulled the trigger but it was a family decision.

his wife came through cancer. some of this is about health, family, and everything but he's moving closer according to money guys. here is how you know things are heating up with him and donors. he is meeting more regularly, ken griffin, the gop mega donor billionaire at citadel moved to florida. he's very close, getting closer with governor desantis. if he wins president, this is a big if, he's not even running yet, people are saying he will tap probably ken griffin as his treasury secretary. this is getting interesting. it will be up to gop voters if he does run. neil: more financial attention than others? charles: he's getting a ton. if you wants to run he will have so much money thrown at

him to beat trump and president biden it won't be funny. it will be funny for him. neil: donald trump said i made this guy, he's being disloyal doing what he is doing. that has been the threat, but others are. charles: here is the thing, donald trump does -- a lot of gop voters love him still but his record has not been good and the money guys are saying he had his chance, he lost in 2020, we continued to lose after that, these midterms did not do very well. he picked, hand-picked candidates did not do well. this is not a national party if he runs it. neil: evangelicals, they are holding off. charles: they vote for desantis, of course. neil: there's the curse of the

front runner -runner, jeb bush discovered that. charles: he is unproven on a national level. i will say this about desantis. he's tougher than jeb bush. what was interesting about jeb because i remember covering him, jeb spoke to the old republican party, the party of lower deficits, not of approving of immigration and things of that nature, those social issues. desantis is more like trump on those issues and doesn't have the baggage and his younger, and -- neil: that comes up a lot, need someone younger. charles: family out of central casting. here's the one thing donald trump if he tries to attack him, you can't take away the fact that he did a good job as governor.

the federal response to covid has been all over the place. donald trump did good things with covid in the sense that he got a vaccine that was fairly effective early on, pushed his that through. he did other things. he fought against the entire liberal establishment meaning desantis, and said i'm going to reopen my state, i don't care. he took out disney, good on social issues. what used to be a purple state. neil: you think he would not succumb to the front runner early woes. what would prevent him running? charles: he is young. he doesn't have to run. to get into a bruising thing with trump. neil: everyone discovers if you don't run when it is your moment you miss it. charles: that is -- this is my opinion, he will run, and chris

christie probably should have run in 2008 and maybe 2012. it was his time to do it and he didn't do it and then he runs later. neil: running your moment or you don't. neil: can layingone, the home depot founder, he would have raised money, he could have maybe won. he had that tougher edge. neil: we will never know. neil: if it is 1-on-1 against trump, maybe trump, where he worries is the whole place gets flooded, why go at it because trump will keep his 30%. neil: pick him off like 2016. we will hear. charles: that is the market. neil: and the protesters. charles: they are cheering me

on, don't fire gaspoh, drums and everything. neil: thank you, you're the best, look at the corner of wall and broad, you hear a lot of this on weaker than expected economic data. how worrisome is it in reality? we knew that inflation or the worst of inflation was easing. we are unprepared for the slowdown and happening in factories, the pickup and layoffs that charlie has been reporting on extensively. suddenly the goldilocks view of things isn't panning out, after this.

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and see if a reverse mortgage could work for you? - [advertiser] call aag, the country's #1 reverse mortgage lender. - call the number on your screen. neil: hold your breath a little bit, the wholesale inflation front and activity where slowing year-over-year, on food and energy, it is less of a problem than we thought. except when we get signs of the slowdown taking hold when it

came to retail sales, then we got indications in various regions of the country, new york, activity is contracting. industrial output in general contracting or slowing mightily. add it all up and stock prices are going down. then there is the separate oil equation, everyone excited the china is back online or wants to be back online. that's boosting demand for oil which got $80 a barrel. then something happens. phil flynn is next on the then something happened. what happened? >> i thought bad news was supposed to be good news. you got that bad economic data, the stock market was doing great and suddenly someone pulled the plug. what changed the mood were comments by st. louis fed james boler who said

forget that data, forget fearing about pushing the economy to recession, he thinks the fed should react to the inflation data that seems to suggest it is peaking right now and should have reacted to the fact that the economy seems to be slowing. he things we need to get the 5% rate as quickly as possible. he's warning the fed do not pause, do not pay attention to the data that shows the economy may be collapsing. get the 5% is worry about the data. i don't think the market liked that. they were looking at the data as the economy is slowing, find will back off, maybe not, that is where we see this big reversal. neil: 5%, talking about the fed funds, now we are north of four. get it up to five. it may not stop there. some wonder if the fed can overdo it. what do you think? >> i think they couldn't

comments seem to suggest they could. that had a big impact on the dollar. we saw on commodities. it could be because the fed is getting concerned how commodities have been reacting. look at oil, we were up 8 days in a row, going for 9 today. you look at the price of copper, that was exploding. the highest price we have seen in months. maybe they see signs that even though this inflation data suggests things are cooling off, we are worried about that because of the spike in commodity prices. they don't have to cause a recession to make them happy. neil: thank you for that. always valuable to know. let's go to connell mcshane following another department, talk about the price of oil and energy. there is an alternative to that, electric vehicles. getting the stuff you really need, to get those vehicles out on the road and the numbers you need a lot of stuff from that including where connell is in minnesota, to detail all of that.

connell: that is exactly why we are in one of the smallest towns you will ever see but the reason we came here is it could be important to our future economically. so i say welcome to tamarac, minnesota. the population here is 62. farmhouse, located about 2 miles from where i am standing, and geologists made a huge discovery in 2008. they found high-grade nickel underneath it. you need that to make the batteries for electric vehicles to your point. a company called talent metals drilling on that property looking to make it fully operational, in 2026, which is the very same year that america's only other nickel mine located in michigan will be fully tapped out. at the moment most of what we need is imported from canada and indonesia.

>> the us actually has a lot of the battery materials in its own mineral endowment. the trick is how to do it responsibly. >> the concern about doing it responsibly is being raised by members of the tribe that has been living off of this land for generations. >> it is very important to us and it is our cultural identity, that is what we are most concerned with, keeping that pristine. >> that pushback you just heard is almost exclusively coming from to environment groups but never heard back on this issue. talent employees are driving around in a company tesla. there's a deal in place with elon musk's company to supply nickel, american nickel for its batteries of the future.

that is why tiny tamarac, minnesota, 62, may end up punching above its weight economically in the years ahead. neil: that is fascinating. thank you, connell mcshane in the middle of all that. in the middle of this old document scandal, the biden administration, what the president knew and when did he know it, since it has been more than 5 years for a number of documents, some raising the prospect the statute of limitations, no harm can be expected from the president. really?

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neil: say this about the biden document or, classified or otherwise, i am so into this and follow every day. i'm not kidding, every few hours there is a new development. it is startling how rapidly,

whether that is a sign of things to come and this is rapidly concluded, i doubt that. a lot of experts doubt that but we are learning a number of things we didn't learn before, what the president knew, when he knew it but more importantly the role of the justice department and now may be the role him with jackie heinrich on top of these developments at the white house. >> reporter: new developments, we don't get a lot of a great answers on this story, we are pushing for more. we don't know whether it was the fbi or the doj who decided not to have fbi agents overseeing the search at the president's home. according to wall street journal experts told them not having fbi agents there would have allowed them flexibly to take a tougher line, execute a search warrant of negotiations turned hostile but there is

also the optics of having fbi officials involved in the search of a sitting president's home who has been cooperating and self reported in this is against the backdrop of increased scrutiny over government organizations, government agencies, and whether they have been weapon eyes to for political purposes. nevertheless, the justice department was there as we know from a statement from white house counsel's office on saturday telling us about the latest surge but critics say the absence of fbi also creates questions. >> it was only 20 documents. how do we know that? we have to take that at face value and the white house was too nervous to have a federal agent alongside the attorneys. anything else of ac that could be construed as, like to be as they are looking for top-secret documents. the attorneys have no clearances at all. >> reporter: another thing we are noticing is a shift in how

the white house talks about the president's home, biden has made it sound pretty casual. >> president biden: i was sitting in my kitchen yesterday. there's a sunroom off the kitchen and my wife was there with her sister and a good friend and was saying do you realize it is over $5 for a pound of hamburger meat? >> reporter: in the past when the white house had to defend the president's frequent trips to delaware as they often do they described this home as a place the president can do all the business he needs, make secure calls, fulfill the duties of his office and that matters now because the line from the white house and why they don't keep visitor logs is because the president's home is personal. the 20 you have been relentless so have at it. jackie heinrich at the white house, refuses to take no for an answer. to the border and startling developments, tragic development, let's go to griff

jenkins at eagle pass, texas, with more. >> reporter: smuggling is on the rise, it is rapid in the del rio sector and it does often turn tragic. take a look at this footage we shot yesterday, 40 miles north of laredo, a driver from houston was smuggling 6 migrants, lost control of the car, crashed, three migrants had to be airlifted to a hospital. one fled the scene on foot. we spoke to the police chief pablo balboa. here's what he told us about the dangers to his community. listen. >> a lot of traffic, put a lot of citizens at risk. we have a situation like this, 39 miles out but still seeing the border issue come and affect our community.

>> take a look at this video. our fox camera in the rio grande valley sector come our cameras were embedded with the texas dps team and apprehended multiple mexican national runners that want to get away. all a part of the problem. more specifically, we can show you some numbers, keeping tabs since i've been on the ground in eagle pass the last 12 days, you can see in this sector there have been 5500 got aways. the officials here saw them and did not bring them into custody. that amounts to 461 got aways per day. really telling how bad this is. finally, i will leave you with of the number of migrants from different countries, over one hundred 10 the last fiscal year, the last 110 days, some just yesterday from egypt and

yemen, not all, central america, or south america. neil: griff jenkins following the latest develop into as ms. my next guest, new york state senator who is concerned that even in his town he is nowhere near the border. very good to have you. what is going on? >> we had an influx of migrants from colombia, western new york, it is about 2,000 miles from the mexican border. new york state is a sanctuary state. one of only 11 in the country. that's not just some talking point for liberals at cocktail parties. it means something. it means something to millions of people around the world, that new york state is a place for them to come and for the border states dealing with this crisis created by the federal government. we are seeing an influx and we don't have the resources to handle this influx of migrants

that cannot work and don't have something as basic as food and shelter. neil: how did they get to you? >> that is a difficult question we don't have an answer to. we were told by word-of-mouth but i am concerned because eric adams, mayor of new york city said he feels they should send migrants upstage which is not a good idea and without a dime of funding from the state or federal government to handle that influx so so far the colombians are coming by word-of-mouth. neil: 8 million people, multibillion-dollar budget and all of that, they can deal with this worship funds around, you don't have that luxury. >> we don't have the resources. a few thousand migrants overwhelm the city of 8 million people, one of the richest

cities in the world. imagine coming to a small county where i live, county of 126,000 people, city of jamestown, less than 20,000 people and imagine dealing with the resources just with a few dozen or couple hundred. it would be overwhelming the system immediately. neil: we wish you well on this. i don't know false alliteration, new york state senator trying -- the problem big cities are having to say nothing of the federal government and what is going on, the criticism is mounting, not doing enough in washington so what do you do now? we are on top of that and tumbling bond yields but not to the degree they were, it was better than 400 points and a lot of this gained a new lease on life with comments that edward lawrence was mentioning from james bullard, the st. louis fed president telling the wall street journal that the

fed should keep rapidly raising interest rates until they get above 5%, referring to the overnight lending rate and federal funds, that sits in the range of 4%. what he seems to be saying is getting up to at least 5, higher than that and to put this in perspective a year ago we were at 0 on these key rates. the hiking didn't start until march so effectively we have quintupled if not quadrupled at the very least, rates from where they were a year ago and the impact is being felt. more after this. after advil. feeling better? on top of the worlddddd!!! before advil.

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neil: we got the first indications the consumer is withdrawing or conserving a little bit. i don't want to overstate the drop in retail sales or the latest holiday sales figures that show a slowdown in activity, or sales were not as strong as we thought in the holiday season. i would imagine to my next guest this might be welcome news because he and the ramsey organization have been talking about the idea of not spending more than you may, trying to be

judicious about your purchases. he's the ramsey show cohost. good to have you. i was thinking of you guys, knowing it is almost a bible to you, to cool it on excessive spending and watch where the money goes lujan appears again early on it is happening. maybe for all the wrong reasons but it is happening. what do you make of it? >> it is great to be here. this is good news to me. it's not good news to the retail industry. it tells me people are starting to go i've got to take control of my money. my spending has been out of control. i've got a financial hangover and with the looming recession and record high interest rates and inflation that was so stubborn, people are slowing down there spending and going i've got to save for the future. i got nothing in the bank. neil: you need to spend cash to see how much you are spending. i don't know if he still goes

to restaurants with a bag of cash. that's a little scary. the point of that is to keep track, that is real money you are spending. >> the trend has been other pe that credit card, 25% interest and the problem is you make different decisions when it is other people's money. when it is your money with a debit card or cold, hard, cash and you are at the grocery store and you hit 20 after 20 after 20, you put stuff back on the snack aisle and go i don't need that right now. neil: when you mention the snack aisle, i do need it right away. but i get what you are saying in all seriousness. your take on where this goes because normally when people are starting to retrench, it gets traction. if the retrenching is real and appears to be nationwide, not to the degree we are cutting off things like we did after the last inflation bout, than

retailers have to make note of that and they will try to cut their prices. what do you tell people? >> you've got to live on less then you may can be on a budget. there's nothing wrong with spending. consumerism is part of a healthy economy but when you do it with debt at high interest rates it kills you, month after month. we've got to say no to these traps out there. credit cards are the signal of the financial world, we are starting to realize these companies are not our friend, these buy now pay later programs are not out to help us create margin like they say they are, they want our money month after month. we've got to use our budget, use the money we have and spend wisely. neil: and teach our kids something. i don't know if you saw this. marie osmond is telling her kids you are not going to get a dime. what do you think of that? >> we take calls all the time regarding inheritances, dave says it this way, if my kids misbehave they are not going to get the inheritance, that

inheritance can come with trends attached and if you blow it that's not the spirit of leaving an inheritance to your children's children as the bible says so i am with marie. if you think kids will be lazy and entitled, that is up to her, she's under no legal obligation to leave a dime to her kids if she thinks it is going to go that way. i believe it is great to leave your kids in better financial position when you go, and incredible legacy to have, but again, this is under the guise that you raised your kids to where they will manage it wisely. neil: ire told mine your mother and i are keeping every last penny. everything left over we are leaving to the dog. i tell the dog to sit, the dog sits. i tell the dog to roll over, the dog rolled over. if they start listening, they might get something. >> i love that. it pays to be neil's dog. we 20 it does. keeping a close eye on my kids

and the kids on the dog. this is all good advice. very good advice. we should keep that in mind. you can control your money. ♪ ♪ you say goodbye i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. . . i'm so glad we did this. edward jones hey guys, detect this: living with hiv, i learned that i can stay undetectable with fewer medicines. that's why i switched to dovato. dovato is for some adults who are starting hiv-1 treatment or replacing their current hiv-1 regimen. detect this: no other complete hiv pill uses fewer medicines to help keep you undetectable than dovato. detect this:

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neil: all right. charles payne still has a couple of hours to fix this right now, down 426 points. i noticed we're hovering around these levels, charles. charles: i think it was waiting for me. we'll put "the cp effect" to big test today. neil: get to it. charles: thanks a lot.