stuart: that is appropriate, rain on me, it is pouring in new york city, probably going to rain all day. 10:00 eastern, let's get to the money, show you the damage, down 200 for the dow, 86, 90 points on the nasdaq, more red ink, we had two days of red ink, tuesday, and wednesday, when the dow lost a thousand points, now we are down 200 on thursday morning, the 10 year treasury yield dropped below 340 earlier, that is now 339, price of oil 79, 89, close to $80 a barrel mark, bitcoin dropped below 20 one thousand, 20,700 is the mark right now. now this. if you move out of a high-tech state and go to a low-tech

state like florida or texas, watch out, because the tax boards in new jersey, new york, california won't let go of you easily especially if you make big money, case in point, elon musk, the musk headline of the day, there's always at least one, iran famously left california and moved to texas but he has been spending a lot of time in san francisco reorganizing twitter, remember he walked into headquarters with a sink. the tax board says he owes california tax on the income he earned while in the state. here is the ceo of 3 companies, tesla, space x and twitter, and he provided services, provided services, if he did that at those companies, and with twitter he clearly did, then he owes tax and that could be a lot of money. he paid $3 billion in 2020 one. his bill this year will depend how much time he spent on the job in california.

no wonder he didn't like anybody tracking him on his private jet. than the great state of new jersey, state where the governor met government attacks he didn't like, if you move out and claim residents in a low-tech state the franchise tax board will make you prove that you really do live elsewhere. they have people who will check out your refrigerator to see what you are eating in your new home, if it really is your residence. the tax boards in new york and illinois will be just as aggressive. this tax year will be particularly intense. high tax states are losing high income people. they can't afford to let them go without a fight and it will be a monumental fight for elon musk. they hate him in san francisco. he's a cash cow with a $22 billion deficit. maybe they will drive him and his companies completely out of the formerly golden state. second hour of varney is just getting started.

look who is here, michael goodwin. these states can't afford to lose these high income earners, can they? >> there budgets are based on high spending and it is fascinating, you mentioned in california, $22 deficit, florida has a $33 billion surplus. that is what happens, when you create an economic climate where people want to work and spend their money, then you end up with more money but that is the lesson of high taxes on low taxes that we've known forever but the blue state seem to have forgotten it and the defining issue is how many days you spend in a state whether you are subject to the state's top income tax and i have heard cases of people landing at an airport in new jersey, waiting until after midnight to come

across the bridge into new york city, because that way they are not accounting for that day in new york and the tax a force of gone so far as to check your ez pass, check your documents to make sure how many days, so if you live one hundred 83 days in any one state you are a resident of that state and subject to all the taxes so there's a lot of money, new york city and state, combined 15%, that is a lot of money if you have a lot of money. neil: stuart: they want to keep the money. look at this one. a group of protesters in atlanta calling for violence against the police, make them pay after a shooting left one trooper wounded at one suspect dead. are you hearing anything from the administration on this? why is nobody in the

administration condemning it? and things like this? >> i think this is part of the administration's fall. president biden gave a speech on martin luther king jr. holiday to the al sharpton group in washington and he tore into the police saying they had to learn how to shoot so as not to kill. the old hollywood idea if you shoot the gun out of the hand or shoot the guy in the leg. the international union of police organizations has written a scathing letter which i received this morning, attacking him for that speech saying they will never endorse him again, he knows better, he has met with them over the years and expressed concern for police officer safety, but in that speech there was only a denunciation of the police. it was an outrageous speech and i wrote about it in my column for wednesday. this is the same old democratic party that hates the police.

that stink is all over it. biden tried to erase it and then added to it with that monday speech. stuart: not a good performance on mlk day if you ask me, see you again soon. lahren is with us. what is the president's document scandal doing to his plans for 2024? lauren: nothing. several reports say he intends to run again and there will be an announcement after the state of the union address. what is the impact of the documents on that? if he runs against donald trump biden loses the ability to slam trump for what happened with the documents, they are uneven territory. but he could still win. in a hypothetical 24 matchup biden beats trump by 8 percentage points. same pole if biden runs against desantis, desantis wins by 45-42.

that is why michigan republicans traveled to the state of florida and hand delivered governor desantis and that a, we want you to run for president, you have our backing, we will help you to win michigan which trump won in 16 but did not in 2020. stuart: let's get back to the markets, we have 2, this is a financial show and we 've got red ink. not as bad as it was half an hour ago, down 130 on the dow. we are down even more following yesterday's selloff and the selloff the day before. wears this market going? >> it will be hard to break out. we have several technical factors looking at advance versus decline. and a 50 day moving average passing the 200 day moving average. and the voodoo gods behind the world of stock market, they love to see that sort of thing

but on the fundamental standpoint, if it is just falling apart, we have horrible production numbers and empire manufacturing, interest rates that are high and it is really ugly what is happening in housing and manufacturing, all these things point to recession. earnings typically bottom somewhere near 6 to 9 months after the start of this recession and the market bottom 6 to 9 months before those earnings bottom. stuart: we are looking at an obvious slowdown in the economy, possible recession in the immediate future, but doesn't the market rally when the recession appears to be very mild and we are gradually coming out of it. can't we see a market rally this spring? no chance? >> it all comes down to the fact, as the market slows down and as the economy slows down you anticipate a fed pivot, everything takes off, that's the history of it and why the

market typically takes off long before the economy turns around. in march 2009, the unemployment rate peaked in april of 2,010. long before we are out of this recession the market will turn, a lot of that has to do with where the fed will pivot. i think the fed stays higher for longer because probability or chances of a double topping inflation. stuart: we are down from here according to mike lee. is that accurate? >> the market could hold in their but it will be hard to break out until the fed pivot or the economy starts to look better. stuart: thank you. lauren is back, sitting right next to us, we have some movers. american express is down. lauren: one of the reasons the dow is down, no news. it could be the higher income consumers starting to pull back on their spending. they will use cash over credit.

stuart: allstate, the insurer. lauren: they are forecasting a loss, they blame the auto business. stuart: what about roblox? lauren: turned bearish, cut them to underweight, stocks down 6%. %. what i found interesting in their reasoning was they expect the growth to slow in the second half of the year. everyone saying things will get better, that is when morgan stanley expects things to get worse. stuart: than we have osha just issued a citation to amazon, the occupational safety health administration, citation for amazon. lauren: they failed to keep their workers safe after investigations and 3 warehouses, new york, illinois, florida. they said amazon expose their workers to ergonomic hazards, back pain, with high frequency,

pick up boxes and packages over and over again. upshot they are proposing a fine of $60,000. stuart: that is it? okay. lauren: do they do this for representational reasons? stuart: doesn't set a precedent for something else? that's the story. thank you. you may want to put off retirement a little longer. new research shows retiring early could be harmful to your health. layoffs and talks of bankruptcy raising red flags over the economy. are we heading for a downturn? jeff flock has the report coming up and a british comedian makes headlines after he said wokeness was poisoning the minds of young people. >> the way to improve the world is to work, is to create, to build, the problem with woke culture is it trained too many young minds like yours to forget about that. but when he was speaking at the oxford university union in britain. do you think he could make a speech like that at harvard or

yale? i don't think so. home depot cofounder bernie marcus says the problem is no one wants to work anymore. bernie is next. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back.

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stuart: too much in the trading session, one thousand points. thursday it is down 200. that is a significant drop, nasdaq composite lower today, losing almost 96 points. seems almost every day we are telling you about new layoffs, there are stores declaring

bankruptcy or shuttering some locations. jeff flock outside a closed bed, bath, and beyond, in pennsylvania. in your opinion from where you are, what is the real state of the economy. >> don't know if this is the canary in the coal mine are not but this bed, bath and beyond, this is a well-heeled community i'm standing in, there you see it, one of 150 bed, bath, and beyond stores that have been shut down. i used to love to go in bed, bath, and beyond because they had everything, stores were packed. i took pictures inside an open bed, bath, and beyond store yesterday and was kind of surprised what i saw, a lot of empty shelves like those sears stores we would see before they shut down. perhaps more layoffs at bed, bath, and beyond and that is in addition to all the layoffs you mentioned, everything from

microsoft a tesla, cisco, you name it, almost hard to find a company that is not laying people off. the founder and ceo of c3 a i was on with maria a short time ago this morning, he said he thinks things are going to get worse. >> now we are going to see a massive contraction. i think the layoffs have just begun. >> will take a you are two to get through it and i think the tech layoffs of just started. >> reporter: he thinks things will be pretty brutal. the white house was asked to react to these layoffs yesterday in the press secretary said last jobs report we had said there were more jobs than people looking, she is right but that report came in november for the november numbers so and since then there has been a lot of negative activity. i don't know.

could be facing storm clouds which we are facing in philadelphia anyway. stuart: thanks very much, jeff flock. now we have steve schwartzmann, ceo of blackstone. he says we need a new generation of leaders. >> we need to move on from both parties to the next generation of leaders. i think it is important, on the republican side we've had a series of four losses in a row. i think the public has spoken and would like to see a change. stuart: look who is here now, this gentleman is bernie marcus, cofounder of home depot and a legend in business. great to see you on the show again. do we need a new generation of leaders?

and secondly, what characteristics do you want to see in this new generation of leaders? >> we don't want to see the woke generation coming up especially the leaders. i'm watching davos, they were recommending spending more money on climate control when we don't have it. we already overspent and if anything, climate control caused most of the problems we have today. i don't understand the new leadership. we need leaders who are basically thinking about the shareholders and their employees and how well the shareholders are doing and their employees. i think today it is all about

woke adversity, things that don't hit the bottom line. if we are going to have those people we will see a change. i don't see -- we saw a slight win for the republicans but it is only a small one in the house especially and i don't see anything good coming out of it. there is one thing i don't understand, maybe you could explain it to me. we have this recession we are talking about, people are being laid off and i can tell you right now after some meetings i had yesterday, you can't hire people, they don't want to work, nobody wants to work anymore especially in office people, they want to work three days a week, it is incredible. how do you have a recession when you have people that don't want jobs? there are plenty of jobs out there.

stuart: how do you explain this? how do you explain the attitude of this young generation? clearly you don't think much, how do you explain why they are like they are? >> they are entitled, they give everything, the government in many cases, if you don't work you get as much money as when you did work so, stuart, if i am in a situation where i have to go work 30, 40 hours a week and i am paid money to stay home, and it is equivalent to what ironed, why do i want to go to work, so you get this laziness which you have, and it is basically a socialist society and pretty soon, i was going to tell you, most small

businesses make up the business of the united states, 70% of the people who work today work for small businesses, 70%, right now, we just did a survey recently, 60% of small businesses believe they will not be here in the future. they are not going to be able to make it. why are they not going to be able to make it? number one, inflation, number 2, they can't get people to work. you can't find anybody to work. working 18 hours a day, he may not be able to make it. then you throw in all these rules the you have to follow, every state has them, dumber than number, new york leads the country in dumb, maybe not.

stuart: i'm out of time i am afraid to say but you are a legend, we love to hear what you've got to say and appreciate it, thanks for joining us. speaker mccarthy wants to remove congressman eric swallwell from the house intelligence cody because of his relationship with the chinese by, the democrat says he did nothing wrong, we will follow up on that. treasury secretary yellen will take extraordinary measures if congress can't make a deal on the debt limit, details on the battle is brewing on capitol hill next. ♪

stuart: we got read on the left-hand side of the screen and it is not coming down, the dow was off 200, nasdaq still off 100 points. let's start with charles schwab which is down 5%. lauren: it happened at bank of america, they see charles

schwab as a broker but acting more like a bank and they are worried about cash shorting, when clients reallocate excess cash into a higher-yielding alternative like money market fund. why would that be bad? charles schwab offers them the fees they charge on them, less. blue and i think i've got that. discover, credit card company discover financial is their proper name, they reported earnings. lauren: the earnings were fine. it is a peek into the health of the consumer that is alarming investors. they are starting to see to link aziza 30 days so we are seeing people unable to pay their bills and they raise their reserves for potential loan losses to 100 a new million dollars versus 260 million a year ago. quadruple in in a year. stuart: it is further weakening of the economy they see looking down the road. then we've got norwegian cruise lines and they are down all over the place, down 4%.

lauren: the expectation they report two quarters of losses in a row, for december and the current quarter. i tried to find a bright spot. i will try harder next time. stuart: negative news. keep smiling. here we go again. we are set to hit the debt limit midnight if a deal is not reached. edward lawrence at the white house, looks like groundhog day to me. take me through the latest. >> groundhog day and the jackhammer. treasury secretary janet yellen sent a second letter to the leadership in congress saying she will have to institute those extraordinary measures saying they will last through june 5th so now we have a date, republicans and democrats say they don't want to put the full faith of the federal government repaying its debt at risk, republicans are openly upset the treasury secretary waited 6 days before the deadline to

send a letter of warning, the first letter. representative andrew barr says congress left taxpayers $30 trillion in debt, the president's inflation at 40 your highs adding that is why republicans and democrats must work together is not just avoid default but put washington on a spending diet. here is senator john kennedy. >> if you are going to have a party, you have to pay the band. if you are going to borrow money, you have to pay it back. that is true as a moral principle and the principle of practicality. >> reporter: he did not vote for all the spending. the white house saying they are not going to negotiate, all of his spending that he has passed, signed into law, that must be paid for. >> it is something that should be done without conditions. there should not be negotiating

around it. it is the duty, the basic duty of congress to get that done. >> reporter: the republican leadership asking, or coming up with asks they have to negotiate with the white house over this hoping there could be that, one of the proposals that is surfacing is a debt to gdp ratio, if you reach a certain point like we are at one hundred% debt to gdp ratio, it triggers automatic spending reductions over 5 years. that is being floated around. stuart: thanks very much. look who is here, art laffer joins us. let's get something clear right up front, we are not going to default on our debt, are we? >> no, we are not. whenever people around you are claiming chaos, confusion, collapse, just put your hands over your ears, shut your eyes, count to 10 and they will all be gone, it will clear up and be fine. it is all negotiation tactics.

senator kennedy's remarks. stuart: we've got to cut spending. we will cut spending, a titanic battle, they will eventually get a deal. hopefully there is spending and that deal, you with me? >> i'm with you and this is wonderful negotiation. they need congressional approval for raising the debt ceiling and that gives us time to negotiate what you said. when senator kennedy said, it is a little misleading, these congressional people are spending the money, borrowing other people's money and doing that and claiming it is our response ability to back them up. we will do that. there will be no collapse. it is hypocrisy at its best. they commit the money and say we've got to pay it back and you are right, we need to cut spending, cut it a lot, bring discipline into the system, and

one of the ways of doing that is by having these debt ceiling debates. the democrats are screaming, hollering, yelling, simply to frighten people to get the republicans to back down on spending cuts. stuart: we always hear with the debt exploding, $31 trillion, at some point, there will be a debt bomb. we have been hearing about this for 30 years, the debt bomb has not yet exploded. do you think it will explode? and when? >> of course it won't. of course it won't explode. it will come to agreement, it will happen, even it goes through market turmoil, it will disappear in time. it's a natural thing they do. thank god we have the debt ceiling limit because that forces them to negotiate on cutting spending. this administration, way overspent, way overspent and we need to get tools, bring the

spending down and the democrats are trying to avoid the consequences and that is a sad state but if it were reversed it would be the same thing with democrats refusing to limit the debt ceiling. stuart: you are one of the few guests on this program in the same generation, same vintage as myself. great-grandchildren do you have? >> that's why i didn't like the steve schwartzman comment we need a new generation, we need our people, yours and my generation or older than us back again for bringing fiscal soundness back into the system. stuart: i will take it. come back soon. thanks very much. the governor of florida is ron desantis, who wants to make tax dovish gas stove tax-free. you just being provocative, isn't he? >> he is as always, making a point. governor desantis speaking at hurricane recovery event, while listing a number of tax-free child related goods, the

governor through energetic government by suggesting potential tax break on gas stoves. >> we may even say no tax on gas stoves coming up this year. we will do that. that is fine with me. i want you to be able to have a choice. stuart: the comment comes after the consumer product safety commission said it was considering a ban on gas stoves because of concerns about indoor pollution linked to childhood asthma. after public outcry the agency ditched its proposal but it is not the first time desantis has weighed in on this debate, last week he tweeted a picture of a mock flag with text that reads don't tread on florida. that is governor desantis. stuart: thanks. former disney executive made millions after working 70 days. we've got some detail on his eye-popping conversation. housing starts at the lowest

level since july of 2,022. is the housing market getting better or worse. i will ask mitch rishel next. ♪ ♪ so it's decided, we'll park even deeper into parking spaces so people think they're open. surprise. [ laughs ]

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no sales speak, no wasted time. go to vroom.com and pick your favorite. stuart: the dow is down 217 points, nasdaq down 93. the selling we have seen the past couple days. here is the story, the sec has officially charged sam bankman-fried, with customers to alameda while raising $1.8 billion for investors.

he has been charged and by the sec. a number of new homes under construction in december down 1.6% from november. mitch rishel, is the housing market getting better or worse? >> when we manufacture less homes, that's a good thing because it brings less supply and housing at the end of the day is a supply and demand balance but it is bad for the economy. when there's less homes sold or manufactured, jeff flock was in front of bed, bath, and beyond, the reality is home depot, bed, bath, and beyond, the consumer side of the business suffers because when people buy homes they need stuff to put in the homes, if they buy fixer-upper's they need materials to fix them up. the bigger challenge is how bad

the slowdown is for the economy, not just looking solely at the housing market has its own ecosystem. stuart: we have a harvard economist who says home prices will fall another 10%. he is saying the housing market is getting worse. what do you say? >> i didn't go to harvard. i have a median macroeconomics, what do i know? when have economist ever been wrong? that never happens. you are seeing two things. the first is we are seeing asking prices falling by 10% which is a leading indicator that home prices will fall by another 10%. i don't disagree with that notion but let's remember they are up 40% from the pre-covid period. there's a lot of wealth people have created in their homes. if they fall by another 10%, that offsets the higher cost of borrowing, perhaps paves the

way for people to get into homes they couldn't get into a year ago. i don't see a washout in housing, i see a recalibration of pricing that could be good in the long run for first-time homebuyers. stuart: last question if i may. is florida still the hottest market? >> i think it is, but it is bifurcated. you've got cash fires, you did a story earlier about people getting out of high tech states, that's happening, cash fires gobbling up stuff in the flipside of the coin is the regular folks who are trying to buy homes, not getting priced out as much as they were. it is still hot. one little thing, there's a new law on the books in florida that could make condominium buying a challenge down the road because condominiums, because of the building

collapse a couple years ago, a measure passed the senate, desantis i do, requires condominiums to have ample reserves on their balance sheet which means maintenance is going up, that is the story we will hear more about. stuart: we will get it from you too. thanks for being here, see you again soon, real estate guy. we are learning about the former disney executive who is behind the company after botched response to florida's parental rights bill. is this the guy who made millions for working 70 days? ashley: it is. jeff morel was hired as chief corporate affairs officer from bp last january, a year ago, he lasted 3 months, 70 weekdays during which he reeled in 8. $65 million in total compensation which is roughly one hundred $19,505 a day, not bad, disney shelled half a million dollars to move his family to la from london and

another half million dollars when he lost the job. got expensive. disney bought the $4.5 billion southern california home he purchased so he was involved in a pr mess surrounding disney's opposition to florida's education parental rights bill but this is the fine print you should read. he advised against it believing the company should stay on the sidelines but after all the mess ensued, after 3 months he told his colleagues he doesn't feel he's the right fit for the job. stuart: even though he got it right. turkey place to half-million dollar bounty on a former nba player, ines kantor freedom. a half-million dollar bounty? that is next.

it's official, america.

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stuart: back to the well, cohost some of the view question congressman eric swallwell about christine afterang. ashley: he said he did nothing

wrong after being told he was having a close relationship with the chinese spy who targeted him. swallwell says he cooperated immediately. watch this. >> three times they've come out and said this person who volunteered for our campaign in barack obama's first turn before i was on the intelligence can become this person when they told me who she was, my district, 35% asian americans, this isn't like a chinese person in iowa. they told me about this and i cooperated to help the fbi. ashley: while involved with the commerce been's campaign the fbi says the chinese operative helped place one intern in swallwell's office and interacted multiple times over several years, that is why republican house speaker kevin mccarthy is wanting to remove him remove him from the house intelligence committee saying, quote, if you got the briefing i got from the fbi you wouldn't have swallwell on any

committee. ashley: thanks. listen to this. turkey place to high hundred thousand dollar bounty on a former nba player, ines kantor freedom, who joined me now. what did you do? >> thank you for having me. my crime was talk about human rights violations on prisoners in turkey. the undemocratic moves and what is happening in my country the last 10 years. the turkish government was like we are going to put about a young your head, whoever is out there can get him, will give him half a million. this is an acceptable. stuart: is this to kill you? if somebody kills you they get half $1 million? >> first time i heard about

this bounty, i was in the vatican. i heard about this news and got in touch with the fbi and they told me to come back to the us immediately and i did and when i had a conversation with my friends they said this could trigger the mafia, the cartels, professional hit men, and i just could not believe this is happening on us soil. i am an american citizen, but we see the dictatorship turkey is. stuart: everybody, a lot of people have a problem with you. china, the nba, now turkey so was it all worth it? >> i'm trying to be the voice of all the innocent people who don't have a voice. it might cost me my career, my family, everything i have, but i know at the end i am doing god's work, so yes, it is worth

it and i have no regrets. stuart: one of these days we will get some serious information from the nba about china and one of these days somebody is going to say something about china that should have been set long time ago. it might be you. thanks for being with us, we wish you the best of luck, sorry to hear you are under such pressure, come and see us again. listen to this one. hussein bolt, the fastest man in the world a couple years ago, his lawyers say millions of dollars are missing from his investment account. lauren: just like that, we think we know what happened, $12 million wiped out, he had 12. 7, twelve. 8 million in that account, now $12,000. it is not a us firm. it is jamaica's stock and securities limited and authorities there are investigating and they think this alleged fraud was committed by a client relationship manager and likely collaborating with others at

the bank so now both attorneys are saying come forward, just what you did, and the money or we are pursuing civil income elections. stuart: imagine the shock of looking at your account and realizing you lost $12 million like that. that would be awful. okay. lauren: if i did, absolutely, everything he had. stuart: back to the market, still heading south, dow industrial down 266 points. one of the tech stocks, meda has turned around and moving higher, they are up a couple points right now. all right, still ahead, bill hemmer, doctor frank contasessa and the premise of new zealand has stopped that a step down, brought down by the same issue that tarnished the image of liberal politicians and the media, draconian covid lockdowns, soft on crime policies.

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>> we're getting warning after warning right now on earnings and sales. if that continues, i'm not s