>> we have choppy years in the markets but remember the stock market is six to 18 months ahead of the overall economy. >> cheryl: lee carter? >> consumer confidence is actually increasing from a year ago so i think that's aring to see what the impact is going to be but the savings rates are down. >> cheryl: well i've got 30 seconds left in the show i'm thinking stuary varney won't mind if i send it over to him right now. stuart: no, i don't mind, cheryl you surprised me. i'm not sure how i'm going to fill these 16 seconds of airtime that you've just donated to my cause but i'll think of something. so why don't i say this. good morning, cheryl, and good morning, everyone. have we got a show for you. netflix zoom, big layoffs at google, no regrets from the president, and nikki haley looks like she's running for the presidency. let's start with the wildly positive report from netflix. over 7 million new subscribers. that exceeded their own projections. i wonder if the harry and meghan special had anything to do with it. well.

the stock has gone straight up this is pre-market you're up about 6%. co-founder reed hastings is stepping down from his co-ceo role. i wonder if that is helping the stock. all right, add one more to the list of big tech companies cutting workers. google will lay off around 12,000. its been a tough week. 18,000 job cuts at amazon, 10,000 at microsoft and now about 6% of google staff. its been a very tough week for stocks. the dow has dropped what about roughly 1,200 points and there's not much of a recovery so far this morning. in fact the dow is down another 40. modest gain for the s&p, up 50 on the nasdaq. that's not much of a recovery. hate to tell you this but gas prices keep going up. regular now averages 3.39 and that's up another $0.02 overnight, up close to $0.30 in a month. politics. all right, a testy president biden is fed up with the constant questioning about his handling of secret documents he says he has no regrets though

the white house, however, the white house press briefings, they're still highly contentious karine jean-pierre looks like she's under siege. we know donald trump is running in 2024 looks like two other republicans will get into the race. a pro-desantis group will spend 3 million bucks on a push to get him into the white house, and nikki haley, well she is exploring a run. she said, i've never lost a race and i'm not going to lose now. the report on the supreme court ruling abortion the supreme court abortion ruling leak, that report is in. they do not know who did it. the court investigated itself. the suspicion is that neither the administration nor the chief justice really wants to get to the bottom of it. my opinion? that's not good enough. on the show today, you will see real free speech at a top university. unfortunately, it's not an american university. it's oxford, in britain. constantine kissing told student s be quiet, listen, and

he took on the woke mob and won, bring him over here, please. friday, january 20, 2023, "varney" & company is about to begin. ♪ go, johnny, go ♪ stuart: i absolutely love this one, chuck barry, johnny be good. doesn't it take you back to the 18 years old maybe beer and dancing up a storm? i just love this song. todd: skin full of beer is that a british expression? stuart: it was and i was in britain when i was 18 years old dancing up a storm to that particular music. i just love it. we're starting this friday morning with that good music and with netflix. they reportedly yesterday absolutely spectacular. lauren: thank goodness for netflix and this week, particularly today. look, high inflation but no subscriber fatigue. that was the message. i want to give you three points.

number one, blowout subscriber numbers about 7.7 million new ones in the quarter, big content draws harry and meghan, the new adams family show. this is the first quarter that includes netflix's cheaper ad plan, go ahead. stuart: i'm not, you've got a lot more to go. it looks good. lauren: point number two the password sharing crackdown will begin soon so it's expected each extra member that doesn't live in your household will pay about $4 to have netflix. some people will cancel, but think about it. if that's like 100 million subscribers you get 10 million new ones if they sign up for new accounts. stuart: that makes sense. lauren: the third one is leadership changes reed hastings stepping down as ceo, staying on as executive chairman and netflix will be run by ted soren tos and greg peters. this is a plan well setup. stuart: got it thanks lauren. look whose here now, mark mahaney is joining us.

mark has been pro-netflix for sometime on this program so i guess you were not particularly surprised that yesterday's report. >> well, no. the sub-numbers were better than i thought and i think the real truth here is that the core business is stronger then people had expected. we over-extrapolated during covid, and then the other way post-covid when numbers were so weak in the first half of last year. the reality is netflix continues to grow and now you've got the password sharing management coming in and now you've got the ad-supported business so i continued to like netflix shares , i think what lauren said is the right setup on the company and the stock. we have a ceo transition but i think it's going to be very seamless. stuart: you had a price target for the stock at 340 bucks. i believe have you shifted it higher? >> we took it to 400 and i also tried to layout what i call the 20 x 25 pitch so the ability of the company to get $20 in

earnings by 2025 which would support something like a $500- plus stock price so the real key thing with these new initiatives the company has, this ad-supported offering which is cheaper, it's a cheaper netflix and a softening environment, i don't know if we're going into a recession but it's clearly going to be a softening environment for most consumers in 2023. there sits netflix with a $6.99 a month offering. again it's that price of that grande latte but you can get access to all of netflix's content. one of the best things you can get in america today and it's going to help them reduce churn and bring in more subs and we're just starting to see the impact of that. that's why the core business is recovering and you've got these new growth drivers kicking in that's why it's so attractive here. stuart: i speculated earlier maybe the growth in subscribers has something to do with harry & meghan. does it real fast? >> i'm sure it does. they have a strong content. i think that was less, i know it's very popular but it's not

as popular as wednesday, the adams family spin-off and then the glass onion so look, netflix remains as kind of hit machine. they spend 17 billion a year on content so the way i think about it is that 17 billion shots on goal and a couple of them always go in, whether that's squid games or stranger things, so yes harry & meghan helped but there are other thing that help ed a little bit more and there are more to come. stuart: mark thanks for getting it right and being on the show we always appreciate it. >> thank you. stuart: we've got to get to politics. more pointers as to who is running in 2024. all right, lauren. nikki haley is in? lauren: it sounds like she is. she sat down with bret baier yesterday. watch. >> do i think i could be the leader? yes. i've never lost a race. i said that then, i still say that now. i'm not going to lose now. the survival of america matters, and it's bigger than one person and when you're looking at the future of america, i think that it's time for new generational change. i don't think you need to be 80 years old to go be a leader in

d.c. i think we need a young generation to come in, step up, and really start fixing things. if i'm this passionate and i'm this determined, why not me? stuart: she's running. lauren: read between the lines [laughter] coincidence alley reuters is reporting that former president trump is preparing to make his first 2024 campaign appearance in south carolina. that's where hayley was governor i know, it gets so exciting. stuart: that's what he does. lauren: she previously said she wouldn't run against trump and it looks like that has changed, and there might be a lot of candidates that run against trump. a pack run by ed rollins is now supporting florida governor ron desantis spending over $3 million to persuade him to enter the field and president biden won't announce if he is officially in until after the state of the union on february 7. stuart: officially, all right todd piro is with us this morning. do you think nikki haley or desantis could beat trump? todd: you never know. i'm not going to sit here and

make a prediction. i can't even predict a giants- eagles game this weekend much less what happens two years from now but to your point we're both commenting on this that nikki haley is in. you can see it, and everything that ron desantis has done following the mid-terms shows that he's running. trump's in. this is going to be an absolutely wild and honestly, jam packed republican primary. on the democratic side, i don't know. lauren: that's my concern. let's say you have nikki haley and desantis and even glenn youngkin who those two as governors are making moves that signal they are ready to take on the national stage. do too many contenders benefit trump and make him the candidate stuart: he could knock them off one at a time. lauren: he's got that power. todd: if i had to pick one of the two i'd pick desantis over hayley but hayley as part of any ticket be extremely formidable. stuart: president biden says he has no regrets about how he and his team handled classified

documents. watch this. >> as we found a handful of documents that were filed in the wrong place, we immediately turned them over to the archives and the justice department. we're fully cooperating and looking forward to getting this resolved quickly. i think you're going to find there's nothing there. i have no regrets. i'm following what the lawyers have told me they want me to do. it's exactly what we're doing. there's no there-there. stuart: okay, todd, this is so weedy. it's so detailed. i don't think people can follow what's going on and i think they are getting kind of annoyed about it because it dominates the news all the time. todd: that definitely is a string that is being discussed but as to biden's answer. he's either one of three things. he's either not intelligent enough to understand the ramifications of what is going on. keep in mind this is an individual that self-admitted graduated near the bottom of his law school class. he's not clarence darryl by any stretch of the imagination. stuart: that's a pretty harsh thing to say.

he's not smart enough to figure it out. todd: from his part on a legal perspective. secondarily, stu, he either doesn't have the mental capacity to handle this and that has been discussed. i'm no doctor but people who are doctors have said that same thing. i think the most likely scenario is that he just doesn't care, and the reason he doesn't care is because he's carved out a 50 year career in washington where he has been above the law, above his lies, above any consequences he can say what he wants, and he gets away with it. what's odd about this situation, stu, the mainstream media which leans democrat doesn't seem to be letting him getaway with that and that's why i think the speculation that this is a move to get him off the stage because the useful idiot is no longer useful is a fascinating theory. i've heard people like will cain say that. very fascinating theory. we'll see what happens and who the democrats put up for the primary if they put people up. stuart: okay i'm moving on to another one and it's for you too the supreme court, the investigation, they investigated the leak at the supreme court, failed to find

the leaker. now, you're a lawyer. todd: i am. stuart: first of all, how did this happen and secondly, i get the impression that they really want to get to the bottom of this. chief justice what's his name? todd: john roberts. stuart: i'm sorry and the administration. i don't think they really want to get to the bottom of it. todd: let's chat about that theory on the back side and go through the script with the facts and i think we'll get a little bit more insight here. supreme court probe failing to identify whoever leaked the decision that ultimately led to the reversal of roe v. wade. the report released yesterday says a forensic an all a disand multiple interviews were conduct ed with 82 people and 97 employees and the report indicating how easily confidential information could have slipped out including for improper conversations that some of the clerks may have had with spouses but added an outside breach was unlikely. court investigators will continue following up on leads if more information is learned but stuart, to your point, i think you're 100% right and the reason i arrive at that conclusion is because this oh, we interviewed 81 people that

were clerks. well, yeah, you did, i could have told you that on may 2 when you have nine justices presumably about nine clerks, boom there is your 81. stuart: but they didn't. the report doesn't say whether or not they questioned the justices themselves. todd: a great point. stuart: how could you avoid doing that? todd: it's very shady. stuart: check futures please, we're about 18 minutes to the opening bell. looks like another very modest loss for the dow, modest gain for the nasdaq. coming up british comedian blasted woke brainwashing of young minds. roll tape. >> the only thing that wokeness has to offer in exchange is to brainwash bright, young minds like you, to believe that you're victims. stuart: don't you love it? that's real free speech and it's resonating around the world. you get a lot more of that later in the show. the u.s. unveiled its second- largest aid package to ukraine, $2.5 billion worth but no tanks. we'll have reaction to that, from ukraine, next.

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stuart: all right, the pentagon announced their new $2.5 billion aid package for ukraine. it's the second-largest aid pack all we sent over there. can you go through a list of what we're actually sending, the weapons? lauren: i can mostly armored vehicles. the weathers getting warmer, so there is concern that russia's going to regroup and there's a big offensive so in this latest package, 59 bradley fighting vehicles, they move on tracks not wheels, can carry 10 people. a striker armored personnel carrier, it can be configured to handle anything from carrying infantry to medical evacuations. this is the first time we are

sending that. you're looking at everything we're sending. what are we not? the m-1 abrams tank, that is what zelenskyy wants. apparently, they are very hard to maintain, and he also wants the leopard-2 tank from germany but berlin is saying well, whoa whoa whoa before we send that we need all of nato to agree to let us do that. stuart: but that 27 billion is what we've sent? lauren: all in since the war started a year ago. stuart: that's what we spent over there. lauren: yes. stuart: general keith kellogg joins me now on the ground in ukraine. no tanks, general. don't they need tanks, big battle tanks to push the russian s back? >> yes, stuart, sure, thanks for having me today. look i'm in ukraine, thanks for the weatherman foundation which is an ngl here, putting hands-on a lot of the people and things here. you ask a great question. look, the reason why the abrams tank is important compared to the bradley fighting vehicle which we're going to give ukraine in a 155 self-propelled

system is those three systems combined were designed to defeat the soviet union if they crossed with the warsaw back years ago so they fight in combination in tandem. you can't really separate them. if you do you can't really go to combine warfare so they need all three of them, so this whole comment about well they are hard to maintain. well of course they are going to need maintenance but those three fighting together. one is in indiana pantry carrier , one is the artillery that goes along with it and then you add the abrams tank which goes together and then what they need on top of that is they need to at the watter hog aircraft which are air-to-ground combat systems if you do that and train them for combined arms warfare the ukrainians are in a position to defeat the russian army in the field but not giving them tanks is again we seem to be fighting with one hand behind our backs. stuart: yeah, well we seem to be afraid when i say we, i mean america and the europeans, especially the germans seem to be afraid of actually winning in

ukraine. maybe afraid of putin's reaction , if we win in ukraine. that's not good enough. >> yeah, you know, your right stuart. i don't know why, we got to make him afraid of us instead of us being afraid of him. as long as we make it very clear to him and the president biden has not done that. president biden needs to pick-up the phone. he needs to talk to putin and said our goal is not to get to moscow. our goal is to defeat the russian army in the field, in ukraine in supporting the ukrainians with all of the alliance. if we tell them it's a very limited goal, it's to defeat their army in the field here in ukraine and we're giving the ukrainians support to do that. they don't need the manpower. they have the manpower. they just need the fighting capability and equipment to do it and we're slow-rolling them. we could have done this a long time ago. this war could have ended a long time ago but continue to slow- roll that actually delays the inevitable and i think there's going to be a fight to the finish and if the culminat ing fight is going to occur in the spring time and somebody is going to end up

being victorious. they aren't going to negotiate. neither side is going to negotiate. ukrainians are hard-over, zelenskyy is hard-over, putin is hard-over. i think it's a fight to the finish in the spring. stuart: just to be clear here ment when i say they could win, what i mean by that is push all russian troops, russian soldiers out of the 17% of ukraine including crimea, that they currently occupy. that, to me, is winning. is that what winning is to you? >> exactly right. that is considered winning to me defeating the russian army in the field in ukraine and that means recovering crimea. stuart: and you think we could do it if we give them the weapon s? >> absolutely. i think if you look at trajectories, the ukrainian army is on a trajectory to win the fight in the field and doing well. the russians are flat. they've lost their best units, their best equipment is gone. we're providing the best equipment in the world so we're over-matching them now in

equipment. the ukrainians have shown they have the fighting heart to defeat the russians in the field we just need to give them the ability to do it and we're not doing that. we're slow-rolling it and i think everybody understands that stuart: give them the tanks, in my opinion. general, thanks very much for being here. we always appreciate it. thank you, sir. quick check of the futures before the market opens. i see green now, not much, but the dow up 17, nasdaq nice up 76 we'll be back. ♪ get down on it, get down on it ♪

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and our fallen first responder families. those who die for us and leave young families behind. i'm with 21 of these families tonight. they came as our guests. so, who here things that they deserve a mortgage free home? this morning we paid off their mortgages. they never have to worry about their mortgages again. give them a round of applause. i was not expecting to go out on stage with a huge picture of my husband behind me and find out that i was getting my mortgage paid off. my husband, will, he would be just so happy. my kids will have a forever home by supporting tunnel to towers, it's an opportunity to turn those words thank you for your service into tangible, meaningful action. tunnel to towers is an amazing organization. i can't believe what they've done for me tonight and what they've done for countless others. whether it's fallen first responders,

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stuart: all right, futures are all in the green. nasdaq is beginning to climb nicely, up 82 points as we speak four minutes to the opening bell . lou basinece joins me this morning. do you think the fed actually wants a recession? >> i don't think they want to admit it but their policies will cause it. last week we're talking about that cpi number that came in a little bit moderation, i agreed with you, stu, that gave the fed cover to slowdown rates and then yesterday, fed chair bernard whose a boris johnson was like no, the moderation is nice but we still have to be restrictive with our policy. that's like saying the economy

can hold its breath under water for a minute and you're looking at your watch and it's 59 seconds and let's see if we can go for another 30 seconds. before long the fed will over shoot for sure and we'll go into a recession. if you just look at the data are they data dependent or afraid of history is my question. and repeating the 1970s, go ahead. stuart: my question is if the fed does indeed push us into a recession and i think you're right, they seem determined to do that, what happens to the stock market? >> well, we talked last week, i think tech is still very vulnerable if you look at the larger end of the market. again, the dow, the s&p 500, we haven't had a real super-big drawdown like we saw in 2008. certain areas of the market so if you look at biotech for instance or small caps and micro caps, they started selling off first. they sold off almost 70% in the biotech sector from the high in february of 2019 so that's what you have to look for. if you're looking for something to turnaround the major markets it's not the fed and it's not going to be this earnings season

you've really got to be opportunistic and look in those places in the market that have already sold off significantly. stuart: how is the earnings season going so far? we're not even half way into it, but what do you see so far? >> yeah, it's really early right? next week is a big week about 200 companies including your favorite, tesla and mr. musk, but the stats here, like on average over the last four quarters, about 70% of companies have beat earnings expectations, and sales expectations. so far, again, early it's only at about 35-40% right now so very mixed bag, looking weak. netflix subscribed with moderate growth, google slashing today announcing what is it 12,000 jobs, so this is we're looking at things that are very indicative of a recession and earnings declines, not earnings increases and that's the key. the headline earnings growth numbers have flipped negative for q 4 and q 1 and q 2 of this year. stuart: so what be wrong with buying and holding to maturity, a three-month or six-month

treasury security, and yielding what, 3.5% with no risk and a little bit of a tax break. what's wrong with that? >> there's absolutely nothing wrong for that it just doesn't make for interesting conversation at your next dinner party. it's so boring but it works. stuart: i never go to dinner parties so it doesn't matter but that's good stuff thanks for being with us lou basenese, we'll see you again soon. the market is about to open on this friday morning. its been a rotten week so far. i should add it up but i think the dow has lost about 1,200 points way down on the week. well, the market will open. >> [opening bell ringing] stuart: it'll probably go up just across-the-board not a huge gain right at the opening bell but a little bit of green. here we go. it is now 9:30 the market is open. where we going here? we've got the dow up 20 points just a tiny fraction at the opening bell. that's all you've got. .03%. not even that by the way. how about the s&p 500 that has opened and we have it up about

one-third of 1% nothing spectacular. nasdaq composite is up two-thirds of 1% so we've got green but not that much. big tech all higher except apple alphabet, microsoft, amazon, meta up, apple down, the price there 134. show me google, highlight google for a second the latest tech company to announce layoffs. they are getting rid of 12,000 lauren. lauren: 6% of their staff effective immediately. the cuts are going to be broad based, recruiting, engineering, you name it. why? there's been a major attitude adjustment in silicon valley they have to do more with less, cut the excess, and free up money so they can spend it on the next wave, artificial intelligence. i'm also going to tell you that google is deferring bonuses. i know that sounds scary. maybe they don't have enough money. they just rearranged their new performance review system, so now, for this year, if you're getting a bonus you'll get 80% now and the rest come this spring. stuart: was a time not too long ago when you couldn't go wrong at big tech.

get a job at big tech and you're made for life. lauren: amazon slashing 18,000, microsoft 10,000, all this week and google too. stuart: show me way fair, please the online furniture folks. they're laying off people as well aren't they? lauren: 1,750, 10% of their workforce. it's going to save them $750 million a year, so what happened during the pandemic? you sat down at home and said i new office furniture, i need new this. you bought it all and it turned wayfair into a company worth $35 billion. now, they are worth 4 billion. last year, the stock fell over 80%, so talk about cutting excess. they actually reported a near- billion dollar loss for the first nine months of last year and what is happening to wayfair is what's happening everywhere. we got retail sales for december this week and what did we find out? home furnishings sales fell 2.5% in december. stuart: tell me about capital one, a credit card company. don't tell me they are also laying people off?

lauren: yes, yes, yes, 1,100 jobs. where? in technology. many financial firms invested in tech to compete better, and they over-invested and they are more efficient now so laying off some of those workers. they do report next week. their profits are expected to fall by 28%. remember what discover said yesterday. a big increase in delinquencies and the amount of money they are setting aside for write-offs. these are signs that the economy is slowly deteriorating. stuart: well isn't there ad, what's in your wallet? lauren: is it? todd: yes. stuart: what's in your tank, capital one? let's change the subject. enough with the layoffs. let's have a look at costco. i want to do that, because a, i like the stores and b, they have a stock buyback program, which always works. lauren: their sales have been terrific so their board of directors has reauthorized a stock buyback program of up to $4 billion. that will expire in 2027, and they declared a dividend of $ 0.90 payable february 17. stuart: pretty soon, senator

elizabeth warren will be coming after costco. she does not like stock buybacks lauren: because shareholders do better. i know. stuart: because shareholders do better. todd: but does she like free samples because if she likes free samples she won't go after costco. lauren: no they could spread covid. she does not like free samples. even though they are free. i'm just saying, people are very concerned. not her but -- stuart: [laughter] lauren: but your taking your mask down and you're eating. stuart: okay. lauren: not funny? thought it was funny. sorry! stuart: but it's friday. come on and now tell me about nordstrom. i have occasionally been in a nordstrom store. lauren: good. todd: [laughter] stuart: they reported after the bell yesterday. they're down quite big this morning. what's their problem? lauren: they don't give anything away for free but they have had heavy heavy discounts, bad. i mean, bad for your bottom line their holiday sales, holiday sales fell 3.5% so now they are slashing their full year profit and sales forecasts. they operate the off-price

discount store it's called nordstrom rack. they got hit the hardest, because the lower income consumer is getting hit the hardest because of inflation can we bring job cuts back into this? it's not a big number, but pair competitor sachs, the internet division, expensive stuff laying off 3.5% of their staff. stuart: man, layoffs are the story of the week. lauren: tech media, retail. stuart: all over the place. let's have a look at the big board we're in business now for almost five minutes and we're down 80 points man its been a bad week for the dow. show me the dow winners if there are any. what's on the top of the list? the answer is microsoft, i like that. up three bucks at 234 and american express is up a buck 65 , disney is up, ibm is up, j & j too. lauren: disney is up because of netflix. stuart: yes, i presume so. have a look at the s&p 500 winners, svb financial, netflix, alphabet. they are cutting 12,000 and the investors like it. alphabet is up 2.5%.

nasdaq winners, got big names there. netflix, baidu, alphabet, and palo alto networks, that's dan ives favorite. he's been pounding the table for palo alto networks forever and it has indeed gone up. internet security company i think. lauren: correct cybersecurity. stuart: let's check the rest of the markets how about interest rates where is the 10-year treasury yield this morning, 3.45%. okay, it was much lower than that earlier in the week. price of gold still above 1,900 bucks an ounce, 1,922 to be precise. lauren: it's up five weeks in a row. stuart: gold? yeah its had a run. bitcoin back to 21,000, just. oil currently trading at $80 a barrel. nat gas still way below $4 per million british thermal units only 3.31 that's cheap the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline up another $ 0.02 climbing recently 3.39 and california you lucky people pay 4.43. coming up california congressman

eric swalwel blaming speaker mccarthy for threats against his family. roll it. >> people pair it what kevin mccarthy is saying when they call and make the threats. recently someone said that they were going to rape and kill my children, and they were using the language that kevin mccarthy was using. stuart: all right, more on the swalwel story coming up for you. the white house refuses to say if it will cooperate with house oversight inquiries. does that mean they have something to hide? florida congressman mike waltz takes it on. brian westbury says the economy is about to go bust. he's an economist and i'll ask him how bad will it be right after this. ♪

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stuart: got to tell you that the dow industrial average has lost 3.6% so far this week, and that is a significant loss. down again this morning and it's below the 33,000 mark. nasdaq up 58. next case, the u.s.. it has officially hit its debt limit. edward lawrence at the white house. all right, edward. what does this mean for the average taxpayer? reporter: yeah, so right now, it doesn't mean a lot for the average taxpayer, because the extraordinary measures that the treasury secretary put in place, but the clock is ticking for congress to try and work this out, and this really does effect our kids and our kid's kids. the congressional budget office says the interest payment on the debt service will be the largest government program, larger in about six years, larger than defense, larger than education, larger than even

climate change. the cbo says the debt payments are expected to triple from $400 billion in fiscal year 202o we're hearing the same thing now out of the white house that there will be no negotiating over spending. >> republicans in the house, hopefully not all of them, are willing to say that if you do not do extreme things for perhaps balancing the budget , significant cuts to medicare, medicaid, social security, if you do not do our agenda, we may not extend the debt limit. reporter: so republicans say all the spending signed by president biden over the past 24 months is the exact issue. the president signed $5.8 trillion in new spending since coming into office. now, some of that with republican help but most without >> republicans aren't against lifting the debt ceiling. republicans don't want us, the country, to default on the debt but they are not just

going to write a blank check. the democrats are the last few years have spent trillions more than we have received and we're just not going to allow them to continue to do it. reporter: with the actions that the treasury secretary has taken now congress has until about mid -june, june 5 actually is the date the first date that the secretary gave as to when they might actually reach that debt ceiling limit. back to you. stuart: i think we should make the point the republicans have said publicly that medicare and social security will not be touched. reporter: and discretionary spending correct and take the other stuff off the table. stuart: got it. thanks edward. brian wesbury is here. i know brian quite well and he's been saying that the economy is about to go bust. all right, brian, you're an economist. how bad is it going to be? are we talking about a really deep recession here? >> yes, stuart. i shouldn't be smiling about this , but hey, you know, people started calling me a permaball,

because i was bullish over the 12-13 years leading up to covid. i don't know what else i was supposed to be, but i'm not bull ish anymore. i think covid and the response that we did during the pandemic, you know, the equivalent of a car accident. we broke our leg. the ambulance shows up, and they pump us full of morphine. that's all the money printing, that's all the borrowing and paying people not to work. then you go to the emergency room, you're laying on the gurney, the doc says how you feeling and you go i feel great, but once that morphine starts to wear off, you don't feel great, and so as we roll into 2023, i think that morphine is wearing off. obviously, the fed is reversing course, slowing money growth, raising interest rates. we're not handing out stimulus checks anymore, and i think we're going to pay a price. that's the recession that we see

this year. now it's not 2008 and it's not 1,999-2000 the market is not massively overvalued. we do not have overleveraged banks, but i think a recession like 1990-1991 and unemployment could go to 6% or 6.5%. it will be a moderate kind of historically average recession when we payback for the pandemic policies that i think were misguided. stuart: all right, what, if you see this downturn coming, what takes us out of the downturn? >> yeah, you know, what's interesting is a lot of people will believe, i think, that the market, the things that went down the most, so if we look back at this past year, kind of tech retail, remember. we borrowed. we couldn't spend on services so

we spent on goods. my poster child for this is peloton. their sales went through the roof and then they crashed. housing, because we had low interest rates went through the roof and then they crashed, and so when i look at if the fed cuts rates, i don't expect that in 2023, but development, they will. i think housing and autos and the big ticket items will. a lot of people also believe we're never going to come back to the office. i do not believe that. i don't know how you run a great company without having water cooler conversations and so i think tech is going to have a tough time for a number of years stuart: so very interesting, brian. i've got to end it there but looks like 2023 according to brian wesbury is not going to be a really good year. thanks brian, see you again soon >> thanks, stuart. stuart: a new poll shows how people really feel about the government's plan to expand

the irs. what do people really feel? todd: results are not surprising , it shows democrats may not be on the pulse of american people because a majority of americans support republican efforts to block the biden administration from hiring 87,000 new irs employees, this according to a new poll from the trefalga group. 60% of voters want congress reverse the move which democrats funded last year with 80 billion of your taxpayer dollars through the so-called inflation reduction act. 84% of republicans oppose the expansion, more than a quarter of democrats als thanks, todd. coming up don't forget to end is in your friday feedback. you can e-mail your questions comments critiques to "varney"e. airlines warning they aren't prepared for the post-pandemic reality. so does this mean cancellations and delays are the new norm? jeff flock reports next. ♪

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now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-217-3217. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free. with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income... are federally tax-free... and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217. stuart: if you thought the airline glitches and delays were behind us, well, maybe you'll have to think again. jeff flock is with us.

jeff? is this just the way it's going to be, expect to be pleasantly surprised if your flight takes off on time? reporter: i've always found in life stuart it's best to have low expectations wherever you go , particularly at the airport though, perhaps. i've got something that's going to tick you off even more though these are the latest numbers. what happens if stuary varney goes to the airport, has a ticket and he gets there and says you know what, mr. "varney" , i'm sorry we over booked this flight. you can't fly. that would really tick you off i suspect. according to the "wall street journal", that is on the rise. take a look at these numbers from frontier airlines. before the pandemic, they bumped about 800 people a year. 6,000 people last year and system-wide, it was double the number from the previous year, and about 24% up from pre- pandemic levels. the worst offenders there? frontier, southwest, and american. worst delays you talk about delays, the worst offenders according to the "wall street

journal's" aviation scorecard, jetblue, frontier and allegiant and you know, the airlines say it's not just us. it is also the faa. you know that ground stop that took place last week raised all kinds of havoc in the system. scott kirby, the ceo of united says the faa needs to upgrade as well as the airlines. not trying to fly more flights than they have the personnel to do. here was mr. kirby on the earnings call this week. listen. >> there are a number of airlines who cannot fly their schedules. the customers are paying the price. they are canceling a lot of flights, but they simply can't fly the schedules today. maybe it's pilots. maybe it's something else. maybe it's technology. maybe it's infrastructure. reporter: maybe it's all of the above, stuart. i leave you with one positive note, and that is the "wall street journal" also rating people that did well, the airlines that did well. on time performance was delta

number one, alaska air number two and united number three. delta also rated the top airline according to the journal's numbers, and they took into consideration bags and on-time performance, cancellations and the rest. it's not pretty out there these days. i like to come to the airport on days like this when i don't have to go anywhere. stuart: it's a good idea. but that's a real shock. all those people bumped from flights. no recourse. reporter: thatting tick you off. stuart: you bought the ticket, you got it in your hand, you get to the airport and you're out. what happens to you? i mean, do you get on a later flight? you just go home, i guess. reporter: well, i'm going to tell you one thing. that delta, delta scored well. they apparently only bumped four people all of last year. why? because they were willing to pay up and say listen, can we entice you to take a later flight. we'll pay you extra dough. that's the ticket for them. that's your recourse, maybe to try to squeeze it out of them.

stuart: that's very interesting, jeff. thanks very much for being here. see you again soon. on a related note, in a way, some airlines are going to start offering bunk beds in economy class. lauren: whoa how nice. stuart: which airlines which destination? lauren: quantus and air new zealand for their 16 hour direct flights to new york, eventually they will have bunk beds and these dedicated stretching zones for air new zealand you would rent it for a four hour period of time and for quantus, they have this zone so you just go there but are they willing at this point to take real seats out, you know, you couldn't book those seats, and then have people use them to be comfortable. stuart: that's a good question. i'm out of time but i want to thank you very much for being with us for the hour. todd you're a good man. still ahead florida congressman mike waltz, janice dean will join us, steve hilton, and leo terrell. the 10:00 hour is next.

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