unnobodies than -- unmoans than -- unknowns than prior generations. moreover, they live in a time of constant group and -- gloom and dread. remember last week the doomsday can clock moved the closest it's ever been to annihilation of man kind? that's a lot to deal with. i met kids that asked insightful questions, and they want help. tau they don't want to be ridiculed, they're not sure how to navigate life, so they get that life has been pretty good for hem. and just like everyone else, even older americans, they wonder how do we keep this going. after walking around that sprawling campus and meeting some of their 70,000 students, my visit to ucf made me more confident about our future. liz claman, had a great time. liz: i'm so glad you told them to invest in things that up crease in -- increase in value, like diamonds. [laughter] that's my message, kids. all right. listen, charles, i love it.

i love that you speak to them and educate them. pox market alert as we kick off the final hour of trade, we are closely watching both stocks and bond yields. dow jones industrials down 197, low of the session a loss of 212. so we're kind of right there, plumbing the. depths. s&p down 42 -- 43, the nasdaq is down 1.6% or 192 points, and then we've got the russell 2000 down 19 points. we need to show you that johnson & johnson chart, because it is a big problem for both s&p and the dow jones industrials right now. it is down 4%, low of the session, 161.39. the worst performer on the dow and the sixth or seventh laggard, depending on the second you're looking, percent s&p. an appeals court three-judge panel rejecting j&j's attempt the to use bankruptcy of its talc subsidiary as a tool to resolve 38,000 lawsuits. the court dismissed the strategy

which the company had hoped could resolve multibillion dollar litigation over claims the powder causes cancer. j&j says it will challenge the count decision and that baby powder is safe. let's flip it over to the nasdaq. the nasdaq at the moment down 195 points or, yes, as we said, about 1.68% right now. a rough session for tech. but keep in mind with a 9.5% pop since january 2nd, the nasdaq's looking at its best start to a year since 1999. all this red on screen though could change this week, because we are looking at a jam-packed calendar. take a look, it's the biggest week for earnings with major names from amd, gm and exxonmobil, meta, t-mobile coming out wednesday, and then it's aaa thursday, apple, amazon and alphabet with their quarterly reports and depending on how the numbers come in, they could move entire sectors. big data crowding up the calendar, tomorrow case shiller

price index can, and then on wednesday the adp private employment report which is a precursor to friday's january jobs report from the labor department. all that pales in comparison to the much-anticipated principal reserve -- federal reserve meeting with the big interest rate announcement on wednesday. chance of a surprise here, just about nil. the market's betting there's a 98ing % if probability that jay powell and company will tighten interest rates by just a quarter of a percent as the data have begun to show inflation is, indeed, cooling. but even as the fed dials back its rate moves, the ultimate recession indicator is flashing wildly. that would be the yield curve inversion which occurs when shorter data treasuries like the 3-month t-bill pay out a higher yield than the 10-year benchmark. that inversion you see right now between the 3-month yield of 4.66% and then the 10-year yield at 3.548% shows a more than 110

basis point gap right now. duke professor ken harvey created this indicator back in 1986. his methodology is 8 for 8. all those red lines there, 8 for 8 in forecasting recessions going back to 1968. but for the very first time, professor harvey is now saying it's wrong, and we will not dip into version. recession. what? okay. let's bring him in, duke university's school of business professor if cam harvey. professor harvey, thank you for being here because your indicator's been 100% reliable since, i don't know, the beatles wrote "hey jude" 55 years ago. now you say it's wrong? >> sure. and, actually, without a false signal too. so 8 out of 8. but this is a really simple model. huh hi of it, it's just is, like, one piece of information,

the difference between long-term yields and short-term yields. and the economy is very complex. so i think it's pretty naive to think that a single variable will always give a correct forecast in terms of recession. i do believe that it is correctly pointing to lower growth, but i think we will dodge the recession. liz: okay. that is the headline, you believe we will dodge the recession. and yet we are continuing to see gdp i guess stair stepping down. the most recent, which was the first print for the fourth quarter, came in at #.9 percent. we can put up the bar chart that shows how gdp has trended over the past year, and as soon as we had the reopening, we saw the big spike back in 021, and then, you know, kind of meandering. we went negative many 2022 for a

bit. why specifically are you now saying time it's different and we won't dip into negative territory for two with the quarters in a row? >> yeah, actually 2.9 is actually not a bad number. but there are a number of reasons why i think that the the indicator is giving a false signal, and you might say this time is difference, but every time is different. it's a matter of how different it actually is. and this time one thing that's so different than history is the excess demand for labor. so we've got a situation where there's 1.7 job openings for every person unemployed. and that's very unusual. and it means that even as we slow growth, given that excess demand, the hoarding of laborers, there is room to absorb people into the work force. so unemployment while it might increase is not going to

increase that much -- liz: well, let me interrupt because we're looking, professor, at the jolts, the job openings and labor turn theover. we're waiting orange i believe, the december number -- waiting on, i believe, the december number. 10.45 million job openings. so what should our investor audience think about that, and i know you don't sit there and tell people how to invest, but as they look at equities, there's so much indecisiveness about investing because people believe a recession is coming. >> that's right. so the probability of recession, if you do a survey of economists and things like that, is something like 70%. so that's kind of baked into the market. and actually i think -- liz: so they're all wrong? they're wrong, you believe. >> well, we don't know exactly what's going to happen, but i think that as the data comes through that points to a soft landing, we will revise those expectations, and the probability of recession will go down. and i do know from my own

research that following inflation surges, so if you invest if after a surge, that's very good for equity market and, obviously, good for bond markets. liz: okay. so if you invest after that. well, now i'm wondering as we look at the 2-year, for example, 4.26%, a lot of people have looked at the treasury market and said, you know what? i'm going to wait it out and put my cash in treasuries, because these yields are absolute dreams here. and so, you know, as you -- when you look at these yields that are incredibly high for the shorter data term, does that make sense? >> well, it's like an asset allocation decision, and some people at this point are nervous about probability of a recession, so it's a flight to quality. we see this in the usual sort of asset allocation move for investors. but the thing is you just can't look at a single indicator like the yield curves and say, yes, we're going into recession for sure.

i think that that's a mistake. and as those expectations are revised, as we get more and more data that suggests soft landing like slower growth but not a hard landing, i think that asset prices will adjust. liz: how do you view the consumer and the financial sector? the hose were the two -- those were the two very weak areas back in 2008 when your indicator screamed recession and, boy, was it right. >> yeah. and so, again, this is so different today than in the past, in particular the global financial crisis that you point out where you think about it if you're in the financial sector, you're at lehman brothers, you get laid off. well, there's no place to go. where are you going to go, bear stearns? so the duration of unemployment was quite long are. liz: and now? >> now we hear about these tech sector layoffs. these the employees or former employees are highly marketable. there's many companies that would just love to have them.

and broadly speaking, consumers are in better shape, the financial sector the is not going to drag can us down -- crag us down. they're in much better shape than they were before the global financial crisis. you put all of this together, and it suggests a very low probability, at least from my inter-- perspective, of a hard landing. liz: we are hearing any tech engineer who gets laid off is getting picked up by the awe eau sector because they all news these -- need these engineers to work on the evs. so it's developing industries that you feel is also a different aspect here? >> yes. so the duration of unemployment is going to be to low. and, again, this is inconsistent with a hard land aring. landing. these workers, there are plenty of places to go including my business school. we would love to have you as students. liz: that's right. you guys want the engineers to come and be mbas.

it's great to have you, professor. thank you very much for sharing your thoughts. you guys, this inverted yield curve, you're looking at the man who invented it, discovered it, and it has been 8-8, and he is now saying might be wrong time. sky high rates slamming the mortgage wiz, but one fin-tech focusing on writing loans is finding its way to turning profitable. sofi's ceo annie know toe here -- anthony noto here to tell us how his company beat the street in the fourth quarter as his stock rallies on a down day. we're just off session lows. we hit a brand new one, a loss of 239. we're down 213 at the moment percent dow jonesvilles. closing belling we're 49 minutes away. "the claman countdown" is coming right back with the sofi ceo. ♪ ♪ >> woman: why did we choose safelite? >> vo: for us, driving around is the only way we can get our baby to sleep, so when our windshield cracked,

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liz: i mean, considering all the red on the lower ticker here and the dow down 237, look at sofi. very impressive day for the stock which is right now up 12.33% after the company's fourth quarter report beat on both the top and bottom line. fin-tech had a narrower than expected 5-cent loss and brought in an adjusted net revenue of $434.4 million. it also issued strong 2023 guidance. the app added 480,000 more members, and its lending segment grew 51% year-over-year. business going so well that sofi now says it expects to be profitable on a gap basis by the fourth quarter of this year. to the man in charge who's been there during the tough times, ceo anthony noto. anthony, what jumped out to us was that your major growth in

deposits was, to me, pretty significant. quarter over quarter you saw an additional 2.3 billion in deposits. what should investors glean from the fact that more and more people are parking money in sofi? >> liz, first, thanks for having me on again. you've been great to do that each quarter, we really appreciate it. you hit the nail on the head. the deposit growth is a key drivers of our ability to make the whole strategy work. our goal is to be a one-stop shop for financial services products, and we want to make sure that we're building relationships on a daily basis with our members so that we can be there for the big decisions they have to make financial ily like buying a home or paying for an education, etc. but it really starts with the checking and savings accounts. so we've tried to really differentiate that product. we have 3.75% interest on savings, 2.5% on checking. and that differentiation is coming through with the growth in deposits and direct deposit customers, and we can hen use those deposits to fund our

loans, and it's meaning any lower cost than if we had to borrow money from banks to lend to consumers. so there's a couple benefits. one, the checking account's much more profitable with those deposits but, two, we can extend more loans at better prices, so we have the double-barrel benefit of the bank license helping both of those products. liz: well, two questions about your apy, to me, which is pretty fascinating, your annual percentage yield. as you compare it to some of the other bigger names in the business, you guys are rocking it. i mean, goldman gives 3.3%, capital one, 3.1. how are you able to do this, and what do you have as sort of a reserve? because that, we all learned from the financial crisis, is really key. >> we're able to do it because that's, ironically, a lower cost than what we used to have to do before we were a bank. before we were a bank in order to lend money to our members, we would have to borrow from the banks at about 190 basis points

above what we're actually giving to the consumer. so many people don't realize this, when you're not a bank, you cannot use deposits to fund loans. but when you become a bank, those goes sents can be used to fund loans -- deposits, and we're aggregating those deposits by paying consumers an interest rate that's higher than the banks give consumers, and we're no longer borrowing from the banks. we're actually using the deposits. so the reason we can do it is because we have many businesses that can use those deposits to get a return, and a lot of banks have boomedded many of the -- abandoned many of the products i'm talking about because they couldn't figure out how to do them profitable. and because we have many products and we're a one-stop shop, those deposits, if you think about it, it's like a natural resource that we can use to drive all of our businesses and that allows us to give the consumer a great interest rate. the one thing i have to point out for you and the consumers is that on our 3.75% interest with

rate on savings, we don't restrict how many transactions you do or how much money you can spend. most savings accounts will only let you do 4-5 transactions in a month. our accounts are interchangeable between checking and savings. you can move into checking the day you want to move it all on your phone. and you can do person to person payments off the phone, you can do ach off the phone, and you can do debit transactions off the phone all with our app. liz: let's drill down on the lending. your personal lending jumps about 50%, those originations. your student loan unit fell 72 the %, we've talked about that before because president biden, well, it's sort of suspended at the moment, but the loan forgiveness program kind of made that moot. but your home loan originations plunged 84%, correct? what's going on there? >> yeah. well, the first thing i'd say is we delivered our seventh consecutive quarter of record

revenue, as you mentioned, $433 million, up 58%, which is actually a faster growth rate than we had at q3, up 51%. and there are some gives and takes. what you're seeing is that we're gaining market share in unsecured personal loans. we're about 6% share now up from about 4%. that's a very differentiated product. we're winning with the price point because we're funding with deposits. that allows us to do that. student loans, as you know, are not being refinanced because students don't have to pay their federal student the loans. i'd say quarter is a great testament to our diversification of revenue in that the student loan refinancing use to be our largest and most profitable business, and now it's about 25% of what it once was, and we're still hitting our seventh consecutive record quarter. on the home loan side, rising rates have dampened the demand for home purchases as that home is more expensive with interest rates over 5%. we're also doing a reactor techture of our back end so that

we can deliver a time to fund of 30 days on a home purchase. so we've taken our foot off the gas pedal on home loans, put more resources against personal loans, and that's carrying the weight in the lending business. and in the nonlending business we have checking and savings doing well as well as our credit cards and brokerage. and finally, we have a technology platform that we've built and acquired assets to, and that's allowing us to serve members really well. in the quarter we did about $84 million of revenue from tech platform. those are our three businesses. liz: well, i think you make the great point that you've built out other parts of the business. we've got to run, anthony, but the fed is about to raise rates again on wednesday by a quarter of a percent. is that your prediction, and are you seeing any indications from your customers that they're starting to see financial stress at all? >> yeah. you know, we think the fed will be at 25 basis points. we'd be fine with 50. i think it's better that they take the pain now and slow down

inflation. in terms of our consumers, we have a higher-end consumer, their average fico score is in the mid 700s, and they have high income, so the spending on our platform is up on a per-account basis. but, again, we're feeling -- steal thing market share from big banks, so it's not really a cyclical trend, it's more of a market share game trend. liz: you've got them running, they're worried. anthony, please come back again. your stock is certainly a reflection of that today. >> thank you, liz. liz: as the banking industry sees players like sofi coming up with new and updated ways to bank, why is repairing the country's infrastructure stuck in the dark ages? if president joe biden is about to focus on that this very appointment. he's in baltimore, maryland, discussing the replacement of a 150-year-old rail tunnel. we are going to get details on the president's comments straight ahead. closing bell 37 minutes away. we have got the dow increasing

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liz: breaking news, president joe biden touting the benefits of the bipartisan infrastructure law. he's in maryland talking about how the $1 trillion legislation will help replace the

150-year-old baltimore tunnel. this is a railroad tunnel in desperate need of a retropit. one that he's -- retrofit, one that he's intimately familiar with. in fact, the president just said to the crowd that he has logged 1 million miles on amtrak as a senator and vice president going through that tunnel. when will the work begin to fix that much-traveled tunnel? edward lawrence is live at the white house. we keep hearing about the infrastructure plan, when are we going to see it go to work? >> reporter: yeah. there is no set date for when it's actually going to start, they're just saying soon. they're getting all their ducks in a row. the project will be about $6 billion, but it will be 100% electric, the president says. as you mentioned that tunnel, a congestion, a clog point for the north-south corridor here. you have a lot of people and a lot of supplies that need to go through that tunnel. it's 150 years old. it was built during the former president ulysses s. grant. and, again, trains have to go 30

miles an hour through that tunnel but will be able to go 100 miles an hour once the new tunnel is finished. the price tag, $6 billion, of which 4.7 billion comes from the bipartisan infrastructure bill. today here's the president many baltimore. listen. >> this is just the beginning, beginning of having a 21 1st century rail system that's been so long overdue in country. we're finally getting it done. the law, this law is the most significant investment in american roads, bridges since the interstate a highway system, and it's the single most significant investment in rail in america since am rack was created 50 years ago -- amtrak. >> reporter: now, that specific tunnel will create 20 the ,000 construction jobs for the project. tomorrow the president will be in new york talking about a new rail tunnel under the hudson river for the same line there using the same money source. president biden still pitching more government spending as a way to push his agenda forward, and this he's touting the

bipartisan infrastructure bill to get some of that money out for railways and other infrastructure projects. back to you. liz: all right. of edward, thank you very much. by the way, we are at session lows now. we do have the dow jones industrials, and falling, down 280 points at the moment. see if that changes on ticker. yeah, it's been a pretty ugly afternoon in this final let's call it 30 minutes, these last 30 minutes. all right, let's get to chatgpt. those clones of chat bot are flourishing. beijing-based baidu is reportedly developing an a.i.-powered chat bot similar to open a.i.'s. that were to happen, then baidu would be the first to bring the tech to china where access to chatgpt is currently blocked. so even that tiny gain in baidu, that's pretty, well, that's pretty significant because you have a lot of chinese stocks that are lower -- well, it just turned negative. there you go. say good bye to using those bed bath & beyond coupons at harmon drug stores.

the wild springs -- swings resume assuming with the stock on the uptick by 9.8% even as it hurtles toward the potential bankruptcy and that file being. the retailer did announce it will close not only 87 additional bed and beyond locations, 5 bayh baby -- buy buy baby stores, but its entire chain of harmon -- i love that place. their prices are so good. we're so good. -- were so good. a short squeeze seems to be lifting shares of carvana after it was halted for volatility earlier today. the online used car retailer's business has been under pressure from from falling used car prices and its debt burden. according to ihs markets data, carvana holds the highest short interest among the companies in the russell 1000 index, and so when things change, the shorts get squeezed. that's exactly what it appears is happening at the moment.

lucent group shares many revers. stock closed higher friday by 43% on speculation that the saudis' public investment fund wanted maybe to buy the ev maker. lucid may be under pressure today after morgan zahnly called price cuts -- stanley called price cuts in the ev sector a hunger games scenario. but in the ev hunger games, will the odds be ever in gm's favor? general motors rolling out the first gmc ev hummer off its production if line. you're looking at video of that right now. the global head of gmc and buick is here in a fox business exclusive on how he and the team plan to satisfy the 90,000 people on the sold outwait list for those ev hummers. closing bell, 27 minutes away. the dow is really fluctuating here, but it's still down about 244 points.

the nasdaq down 210. we're coming right back. ♪ ♪

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♪ liz: after a gangbuster january, tesla shares are now, at least today, worst performer on s&p at the moment, down about 5.3%. ev leader is flailing despite an upgrade from a hold to a buy. the european bank says there is more long-term opportunity as improves and lower prices because with, of course, elon musk dropped prices on some of these models. will boost demand. what do you mean will? you just heard from their earnings report. but barron gave general motors a downgrade from buy to the hold citing supply chain risks and affordability. now, if you were to compare the two stocks before today's session, tesla had charged up 40% year to date. it's up 36% at the moment year the date. general motors is up 8.7% year

to date. but gm has big news. general motors' own gmc has officially started production today for its hummer ev suv at its headquarters in detroit. the the automaker starting to roll out the hot new ev to its 90,000-person-long wait list after reservations sold out all the way into 2024. the edition one suv sold out within 10 minutes. are they going to be able to generate must have of these to keep everybody -- generate enough of these? we've got global vp duncan also red. how many can you churn out, i guess every week, to satisfy the 90,000? >> well, the hummer ev suv has just been a phenomenal success. we paris revealed them to the world -- first ve -- revealed them to the world about two

years ago, started taking reservations on the truck and immediately it was a super success. we sold out of our issue one in 10 minutes. a year later we unveiled the suv version that you can see here. again, the edition one sold out in about 10 minutes: and we left the reservations open and, again, the reservations kept coming in and growing and growing. as you mentioned earlier,9 0,000 is going to see us out next couple of years or so in terms of demand, because it's just been an outstanding success. delighted to say that whilst the sut has been in production for a year or so, tuf -- the suv goes in production today at our detroit factory. so it's a pretty momentous day. it is going to be a slow ramp up for the suv because we developed this vehicle many a record time. it was only two years really from ideation to first deliveries, and because of that, it just means that the ramp-up

in production is going to talk quite a bit long or than a traditional vehicle which might take the about five years to develop can. so, yeah, you're going to have to wait a little bit longer for hose people who have made hair reservations, but the second half of this year we should be putting out meaningful volumes, and then we'll be in full run through next year. liz: this is a good problem to have. i'm not denying that, duncan. but part of the issue is when you roll something out, people want it. hay want that delivery. so when you say you'll be able to ramp up by the second half of this year, can you give me a number on how many per week or per month, i guess? >> yeah. not -- can't give you a specific number, but what i would say is those 90,000 reservations we've gotten, we have paused hose reservations now. -- those reservations now. it is going to take us a couple of years to really see those through. what i, what we have seen though is the uniqueness of this vehicle. we call it a super truckst got

super powers. it goes 0-60 in about 3 seconds. it can go on any terrain. it's the got extract mold where it can lift 6 inches from its normal position. it can even drive sideways in what we call a crab walk mode. the vehicle can drive itself, and it's a real combination of all those factors. i mean, people willing to wait for this vehicle. in fact, the biggest question we get is, yes, when can i get it, but also -- [laughter] please, can you open the auto banks again and relate us -- let us reserve one. we track very closely if people are canceling reservations, and that's just not happening. liz: well, i was able to drive in one and drive it. in new york city. earlier this summer. and and i found it absolutely fascinating. the crab walk feature is really

helpful if you are -- [laughter] trying to get out of a very tight parking space. the ultra the vision, you've got underbody cameras, the infinity roof. and i do know it crawls over boulders, scales steep inclines. of course, i'm not sure that's in new york city, but tell me exactly how you believe people are going to come up with the money. what is the lowest sticker price here? >> well, it starts from about $85,000. the edition one you see behind me is just over $100,000, but that has got everything on it. now, obviously, this isn't the everyday vehicle for everybody. we fully appreciate that. but what we did want to do within gmc is really set out to build something which everybody would desire. we really wanted to make evs something that a everybody would think the, wow, i would love to have one of those. so we put all of gm's best technology in this. you just mentioned a lot of the

features there. we put our battery in there which delivers about 329 miles of range, variance will be over 350 miles of range. it also allows you to charge 100 miles within about 10 minutes on a past charger. so this is absolute state of art vehicle and, obviously, because of that it comes with a high price. we're very cognizant of that. but again, we have multiple vehicles which really will fit if every pocket as we go forward in the ev space. even in gmc we're having huge success at moment. last year was an all-time record year for gmc in terms of its retail market share. it's really been propelled by the likes of the sierra pickup truck where we've grown five straight years. liz: yeah. >> and the price has grown with it. when we introduce the sierra

electric vehicle at the start of next year, that'll start from $50,000. so, again, that's very much mt -- in the sweet spot and even on the low end of what people are paying for a normal pickup truck today. so we're going to cover the whole spectrum. liz: well, we're watching it, and general motors has been a company that we have been very focused on. dun can can, thank you very much. and i believe the orange color is called the afterburner tint coat, am i right on that? right? >> yeah. everything's got a bit of a space theme which which dose with with -- goes with some of the interior design. wety it quickly and exciting things to come. liz: thank you so much. brokerages are beating down the new york stock exchange's door to make them whole on their losses after that trading glitch last week led to thousands of erroneous trades. charles schwab and others are asking when will the nyse cough up. charlie's going to break that story next. there are a lot of unhappy people at the moment. we're about 14 minutes away

prosecute closing bell. the dow losing 225 points. we are coming right back with charlie gasparino. ♪you' ♪ like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. the true spirit of america embodies goodwill... generosity... and the grit to get things done. that's what's inside every spirit of america box we send to our troops and diplomats at the point of need. working side by side on the front lines, so they can help people live a free and better life. please put your spirit into action today. visit spiritofamerica.org to fill our boxes with the very best of america. hi, i'm darlene and i lost 40 pounds with golo in just eight months. golo has really taught me how to eat better and feel better. as long as you eat the right food groups

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♪. liz: technical glitch at the opening bell last tuesday triggered mayhem at the new york

stock exchange that forced the halt of more than 80 stocks and mispricing on hundreds more. the nyse did gain control of the situation shortly thereafter. a bigger question is still mystifying traders, brokerages and their clients who are looking for reparations. to charlie gasparino. they have not seen a penny yet? >> we, essentially radio silence, liz and what's interesting now, radio silence even with the brokerage firms that were initially incensed by this. their clients lost money on the mispricing of certain stocks that day. it is going to be a week tomorrow. everybody's quiet. so what is going on? you know i can give you some speculation on the floor. the floor traders are talking about it like crazy. they're just saying they're getting no guidance from the, from the nyse on any sort of reparations which shouldn't maybe have to go back to them because they represent clients as well. that is leading some people to believe there is a settlement in

the works. i can't comment on this. this is tens of millions of dollars of mispricing t hurt small i investors, buying or selling at the wrong price. that means they lost money that is a real problem for certain firms like schwab, td ameritrade, others even robinhood that send order flow down there. remember it is not just sending order flow to the new york stock exchange. when this pricing thing happened the new york stock exchange is responsible for the prices of its listed stocks anywhere it trades. so even if 2 didn't trade on the floor, if it traded on nasdaq because you got better execution, that price was still a problem and so the new york stock exchange is on the hook for that. one reason, another reason, liz, why the exchange is mum, this is from sources close to the new york stock exchange, is that they do face a fairly serious inquiry from the securities & exchange commission. after the "flash crash" a few years back you know the sec

implemented rules essentially to make sure, if you're an exchange you have the right technology, not to lead to that sort of an implosion. so they're looking at this mishap in the context of those new rules that the sec passed for better technology. so, again, the big board could be paying money, not only to the clients but to the sec if they were negligent in their technology or if this shows that there is some negligence in their technology yet. not that they purposely did this, but that they didn't do all they could do to make sure the technology is up and running around current and updated. when we get more information on this, liz, i will let you know. again, no comment from the new york stock exchange. back to you. liz: charlie, forgive me if you already pointed this out, apparently, what the exchange only sets aside $500,000 per month to settle such claims? >> yes. we talked about the that the last time we covered this on "the claman countdown." there is some cap, it's a little

more complicated that than, suffice it to say $500,000, a few more bucks here and there the way they do it it is over a month, per month. it gets kind of complicated hard to figure it out if it caps everything in diminimus amount which some brokers say it does. they may not abide by the cap. they may go and pay off. one of the interesting things i learned in the past when this stuff happened, charles schwab, the broker, td ameritrade they would repay the customers themselves but because trade something now in such small increments, so very little spread in these trades. liz: of course. >> charles schwab might not be able to afford to pay back. it would be a lot of money because they don't make much money off the trades. liz: free commission, no commission. >> yes, no commission. liz: charlie, thank you very much. >> you got it. liz: closing bell, five minutes away. all three major indices in the

red ahead of tomorrow's fed meeting which kicks off the big announcement is on wednesday. we only have one more full trading day in the month but the january effect has been very friendly to the major averages. in fact the nasdaq even with today's loss looks to close out the month up about 8.9% that would be the best start to a year since 1999 i believe. you've got s&p looking to clock about a 4.6% gain for of the month, up 1.6% for the dow. now, what happens from here on out? our "countdown" closer has four scenarios that model the rest of the year in the markets. michael vogel sang manages $100 billion in assets, the cio of cap trust. four a lot. what is number one? >> we have sort of the number one is really a soft landing. the fed accomplishes what it wants to accomplish. we, goldilocks wins the day. number four on the other side the fed can't solve inflation

and it keeps rising and they have to really, really crush the economy. those are sort of five or 10% each in our view. the two middle ones are, what we think is going to happen likely, which is scenario two is really where the federal reserve continues to raise rates, holds them higher, taking them at their word. we get a small touchdown recession, little bit softer earnings, things are okay, but not great. number three is basically that same scenario. just a little bit worse. we end up with fairly severe or significant recession, corporate earnings fall a little bit more. we end up at the end of '23, both cases we end up flat to up a little bit maybe even down a little bit depending on timing. it is really about understanding the wide array of outcomes in the markets today. we think it is really difficult to understand. liz: each one requires perhaps a different emptiology. speaking of methodology speaking of different things, i don't

know if you saw him, fuqua business professor, cam harvey, looking first scenario, soft landing. he says the inverted yield curve is wrong this time around even though he invented whole idea of yield curve inversion. with that said what is the best place to spend your money in hopefully one, two, three or four of these things? >> let me add. i saw the interview. i thought it was interesting. what he could have added we never seen a recession with this level of employment strength before. liz: he did say that. >> we have sort of two different opposing forces here. one is the great labor market can and the other is this deeply inverted yield curve and one of them has got to give. we think we'll muddle through, frankly. the federal reserve will be tighter for longer. the basic issue here, we believe the fed will be tighter for longer. we'll take them at their word, which wall street doesn't seem to be doing at the moment. as a result we think that the bubble that we saw in the super

high flying technology names and even some of the "faang" names which are of course wonderful businesses that led market so long are unlikely to return to be long-term leaders for at least this year or another one. so what we're looking for is continuing, what we in the business call short duration equity. that is things that are really inexpensive. things that pay good dividends, sort of continuing of the value trade from last year. we think after this little, this little, sort of rally, this knee jerk rally in january where technology and nasdaq have led we're likely to see reassertion of value and interesting names that will help us sort of lead the day. liz: mike, you like nucorp, warner enterprises. you said you like things well-priced. that is 101 p-e ratio for enphase isn't it? >> yeah, enphase is not exactly in that model. enphase is down this much i think it is interesting.

more to do with energy than anything else. more to do with natural gas. when natural gas prices fallen, enphase makes solar equipment for home and industry is a little less attractive people don't mind spending for natural gas. we've seen it come down fairly substantially since its highs last year. it's a nice, wonderful business, really well-run company. terrific opportunity for long-term solar growth. we think it's a nice place to enter if you have a long time frame. liz: good point? you know what? it is still up 69% over the past 52 weeks. [closing bell rings] michael, thank you so much. major averages finish close to session lows as the dow snaps a-day winning streak. that will do it for "the claman countdown." see you tomorrow. "kudlow" is next. ♪. larry: hello, folks, welcome to "kudlow," i'm larry kudlow. so president joe biden and house speaker kevin mccarthy are going to meet