objectivity because they want more clarity they are opposed to more clarity to and this all goes together trying to impose their version of morality their version of political truth in their doing so in the most abjectly honest way possible. it's coming at a time where were trusting institution at large is an all-time low and that is not healthy for our society. gerry: we will continue pursue objective truth. my thanks this week to david bahnsen and deroy murdock, thank you for joining us for it all be back next week with more calm entry on the "wa >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etfs. ♪

jack otter: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. jeremy siegel made a bold prediction last time he was on the show. he will tell us if he is sticking by it. pfizer's covid vaccine saved millions of lines and there was a big drop in sales. we will tell you what investors don't understand about pfizer. three things investors ought to be thinking about. stocks slid on more evidence of a booming jobs market but investors are optimistic a rates, should they be more cautious? show us a low-quality stock and we will show you massive gains, the garbage rally should scare investors. wall street loved meta's earnings report but gave mixed reviews to other big tech names. what we heard about the other leaders. "barron's roundtable," ben -- ben levinsohn, carleton glitch

and jack hough. the federal have to raise rates higher or longer. jerome powell made clear he's not backing down. earnings are coming in kind of -- why would people be purchasing stocks? ben: this is one wacky market. if we'd had gotten these numbers 6 months ago the nasdaq would be down 6%. the market is done listening to the fed, stopped worrying about inflation, and is in rally mode. we are going to hear from andrew bary later. he calls this a bull market. you get bad news. the rallies went back. that is what is going on right now. jack otter: three bears stand against the market, they are prominent strategists. what is the reason? ben: the stocks that are rallying right now, we will hear more about this from jack, low-quality stocks that are not doing well, things that do well in the long term like united

health, which has great cash flow, good business, very profitable, getting killed this year. those stocks are not doing well. that is not something that is going on for a while. we are seeing valuations, very high. and we are seeing indicators aside from the job market, still pointing to recession. might take a while to get there, those are the kind of things that worry people a lot. jack otter: multiple valuations would be even higher. why is that if i want to make money in the stock market, i have defined the worst company i can find? jack hough: then mentioned double market. we went from bear market rally to hot garbage free for all, looking at one point, game stock was up 20%, amc up 40%. coin base, 130%. carvanand, i'm not calling them

garbage companies, but maybe not the best ideas as stocks, bitcoin was up 40%. that was art innovation. this is a bull market for bad ideas. you have to find something ill-advised that hasn't run yet, isn't that how it works? i went looking, bed, bath and beyond, 30% just this past week. dogepoint, way too late, 30% for the year. if anyone stops with ideas i'm waiting for them. i have a screen for nonfungible holographic monkey cartoons, that the lead cycle. jack otter: this doesn't bode well for the market. jack hough: a bad idea to try to time the market. dogecoin is my leading indicator.

when the make-believe internet money is in tandem with make-believe internet money, maybe it is time to raise a little bit of non-make-believe cash. jack otter: earnings report from meta that pleased investors a lot, they think mark zuckerberg is getting serious, not putting all his eggs in the meta verse, tell us what we heard and what we hear from other companies, not so great. carleton: shares went up after posting earnings, after a brutal third quarter, the company lost a quarter of its market value last time it posted earnings, it has to cut costs, shareholders like that it answered capital to shareholders but the other side of the tech sector was a little bit more challenging, companies like apple, amazon and alphabet, posting mixed results, slowing growth, things like that, stocks did not go so

well. and the market might be getting a little later on these tech companies, many of them announced layoffs, we get great economic data, or in the case of amazon, sales of iphones, using supply constraints, i'm not putting them in the hot garbage category. jack otter: amazon, and it didn't make money. it seems like a gimmick, what do you see about that? carleton: they were delivering 30% revenue growth, a maturing

business. that is what is going on. jack: the economy added more jobs and wage gains are moderate, jeremy siegel on whether the fed

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ben: the federal reserve raising interest rates, surprisingly jobs surged in january. will fed keep rates higher longer? joining me is jeremy siegel. thanks rich coming back on the show. we appreciate it. we have to start with friday's blowout jobs number. does that put pressure on jerome powell and the fed to keep rates higher longer?

>> it does. we have to recognize their 6 or 7 weeks until the next meeting. no question about it, friday's data blue me away. really, the jump of hours with the increase in labor supply, 1.2% in one month, near record increase in total hours. satya nadella jack otter: most frequent become a we hear inflation cited in a year-over-year number but if you look shorter-term, are we seeing a little reduction? >> i agree, we want to push back against year over year. 11 months old data, you really should look at the last 3 months or even the last two months with other price data and that shows a dramatic slowdown, particularly in the

housing market, which is computed with a big lag by the bureau of labor statistics, negative rate of inflation for the last three months. jack otter: an important data point is wages. the fed is trying to slow the jobs market so we don't end up with a price spiral. on thursday, we got a number that looked comforting. what are you seeing? >> the friday ahead of earnings, very much in line, the fed is pushing back too much on wages. one has to realize workers have fallen 4% or 5% behind inflation over the last two years. we should expect some catch up. to say you cannot go more than 2% or 3% sort of dooms workers

to have permanently fallen behind inflation. there is too much emphasis keeping wages under control. we need higher wages to bring people into the market. we know employers want them and job openings are extremely high. the concentration should be on the price fund, not the wage front. jack otter: what do you expect the federal reserve to do, and what do you think it out to do? we all know the actual rate hikes don't fully integrate themselves for quite some time. is there a danger when you have a crash later? >> absolutely. jay powell already says the biggest force of monetary policy worse -- works with a leg. sometimes 6 month, 9 months, 12 months. there's trauma just tightening. one of the greatest in history. its effects have not been felt. i preferred they stop now.

i think there is enough evidence that prices are down, that they could wait and see the course. continued increases will increase the risk of recession in the second half of the year. hard to believe, given this blowout jobs report we had friday, that can turn around quickly. ben: let's cover to the markets, march of 2,020, you thought the dow could hit 40,000 by 2,025. do you to stick to that prediction? >> i still think so. we have another two years of the market. how much would that be each year? jack otter: about 7.5% a year. >> on the dow, it would be below long-term postwar average.

that is a very eminently reasonable projection. it can go higher. ben: putting all of this together, what areas of the stock market look best to you? the author of stocks for the long run? jack: so many years of growth outpacing value and it is a big turnaround. my research shows it is usually not a 1-year phenomenon. i know we had growth run a lot in january. it did very well. i wouldn't be surprised to see value stocks, dividend paying stocks, low pe stocks. reassert themselves as market leaders through the remainder of 2023. jack otter: that makes sense, thanks for coming on the show. drugmaker pfizer expect the

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ethereum 25 jack otter: pfizer expected better earnings but investors have reasons for concern. barron's associate editor, andrew bary, has details. i hate calling you associate editor because you are the guru of the newsroom. pfizer on the cover with the contrary in stands, one of the worst is the s&p 500. >> covid friend size is under pressure, covid related sales, and earnings down 50%. fears that covid is no longer a

major global health problem in vaccine sales continue to erode. jack otter: why now this time for pfizer? a dog for decades. andrew: the covid franchise may prove more durable. for starters, 75 million americans over 60 and many get a covid booster every year at the price of the vaccines going up $100, 25, as market shifts to a commercial pay from a government paid program. jack: you are my spiritual leader, but you mention the come down. if you put them together is the biggest clip i've ever seen, this is wiley coyote going off the cliff in the rocket rollerskates, landing, the anvil falls on him, covid drugs are the bestsellers in

pharmaceutical history, that could be tens of billions of dollars. you have some other stuff, how does pfizer get over something this big? andrew: there's a revenue collapse. the only company, and the ceo is confident about their pipeline, and 6% annually through 2030. they have a vaccine for rsv, severe respiratory disease, and oral pill for diabetes and obesity, the hottest areas in the pharmaceutical industry. eli lilly is a leader and the pfizer drug is an oral drug, a big advantage for a pill. jack otter: tell me more about the flu covid vaccine you were talking about. andrew: pfizer is developing an

mrna combination, if it happens, the ceo thinks people get an annual flu shot, might as will get a flu covid combo instead. carleton: the performance over the longer-term, kind of disappointed but activist investors are not shy about going into big companies. companies like sales force and disney. even pfizer could see an activist come in. andrew: alphabetic facing activist pressure, pfizer, a number of things, a big balance sheet which basically has no net debt, depressed stock price, not buying back stock, hidden expenses for research and irrelevant and deals, the activist playbook could be buyback more stock and get religion in cost like the tech industry. ben: why pfizer when you have all these other political

stocks? andrew: there are some issues but you get 3. 7% dividend yield which is supersafe, strong balance sheet, p/e ratio below the industry average and underappreciated pipeline. most pipelines are pretty well-known. well known. pfizer is less well-known. it should player pretty well. jack hough: give me the non-covid report card, what about beyond that? what the letter grade? andrew: i for incomplete. there are more drugs in the next 18 months. he's taking his reputation on that, the next 18 months would be the most important in pfizer's history. come back in 24 months. jack hough: he has to go to summer school. jack otter: there is this overhang, the medical history

of what could legislators do that would get in the way of their business. the idea that meta-care could negotiate with drug companies seems to be the fear. if you happen to be paying into medicare, it makes sense but for drug companies margins that's not so hot. andrew: it is an issue for the entire industry. it is not going to be a big issue, analysts are not that worried, i would not think that is a major concern right now. jack otter: we will see what andrew does. you guys have some great investing ideas for next week, jack says the activist >> woman: why did we choose safelite? >> vo: for us, driving around is the only way we can get our baby to sleep, so when our windshield cracked, we needed it fixed right. we went to safelite.com. there's no one else we'd trust. their experts replaced our windshield, and recalibrated our car's advanced safety system.

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for more information go to foxbeen stuck on/"barron's roundtable". jack otter: we were talking

about nelson peltz commanding a seat at disney. four of the mar salesforce. jack hough: i've been following carleton's coverage of salesforce. i set out this past week to learn more things. activist create value for what they target and do they are in good returns for your shareholders and not really and know. there was a 2,019 study looking at access returns for activist funds and in significantly differ from 0. there were indexes activist funds who lagged behind the s&p, cheap index funds. there are plenty of companies that need fixing. the to statistical evidence, activists know better than anyone else about how to do it, if that's true how did some of these activists do that?

they charge 20%, people like stories about conflict including boardroom conflict, that helps activists raise fees on that money and that makes them -- jack otter: what happens to the stock they pop? >> they pop initially, 7% is about the average but there is not much value beyond that. the best and activist can do is convince a company to sell something big, that creates value. what happens in auctions? the highest bidder wins. i don't want to say it is the dumbest better but sometimes they overpay. ben: i am looking at caterpillar, a great stock last year, started off not well, 6% on disappointing earnings the high expectations and strong dollar but looks like it will benefit from the reopening of

china and the mining needed for renewable energy and a pullback. carleton: alta beauty, if you think a recession is coming, they sell bargain goods. if we are up for an upswing it is a luxury too and it is trading below historic averages, great time to get it. jack otter: thank you. to read more check out this week's addition of barron.com and follow us on twitter, barron online, see you next week on "barron's roundtable". male announcer: the following is a "leading the way" special presentation. ♪ announcer: global epidemics, intense warfare,