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tv   The Claman Countdown  FOX Business  February 9, 2023 3:00pm-4:00pm EST

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what you believe, that that's fine. but when you do and the research and you find out it's different but you're wedded to a position, that's when it becomes dangerous. no less than 13 wall street firms had year-end targets this year for the s&p 500 below where it's trading right now. and i'm already hearing some twisted narratives and ways to sort of stick to those targets. some have actually raised their targets, but they're still below where the market is right now. as more facts pour in, you've got to wonder will there be moments of truth where that the original outlook is still valid, or will they actually change it because, again, their power and their influence is great. and with that greatness, great responsibilities, you know? they have to make the right decisions, liz. liz: yeah, absolutely. totally agree. charles: thank you. liz: yes. and i also hope you agree that tom holland was the best spidey.
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charles: i liked the old saturday morning cartoon ones in the 1970s. liz: oh, yeah, now we're going back. speed racer. charles: i was born the year that comic came out, '62, so i go back a ways. [laughter] liz: thanks, charles, very much. breaking news, look at this, stocks are giving up their gains, stumbling into negative territory the, and right now they're hitting session lows at this moment. the dow is down 192 points, we've got the s&p lower by 24, the nasdaq is now reversing, lost 87 points, had been up 160, and you can see the russell is down about one full percent or 21 points. we do keep hearing about this earnings recession coming, but don't tell that to tapestry or. pepsico, both moving higher although pepsi had been as high as $1 is 79, and now it's at 172. still a gain of three-quarters of a percent. pepsico said it counsel beat in the fourth quarter, and it
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won't need to raise prices on its snacks and sodas anymore this cycle, right in two years ago shares languished at $129, right now 172.35. preponderance -- pepsi also hiked its dividend. tapestry raised its guidance as younger shoppers scooped up shoes and bags. that's giving not just the high-end retailers including ralph lauren and -- actually, ralph, see, everybody's losing their gains here. so this is a realtime moment where we're seeing the whole market kind of get swamped by the red tide. ralph lauren was higher, now it's slightly lower. tap industry sill up 4%. still up 4 %. you also have some discount retailers. i'm too scared to look. oh, they're all still higher. [laughter] five below up a quarter of a percent, burlington stores up half a percent. the discounters are getting that push, but not all is well in the state of denmark or toyland, as
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it were. mattel is a very messy chart today, down 11% at the moment after reporting a weak holiday quarter. here's what the company said, customers simply did not buy as many toys this season. they were too busy buying higher prices food and gasoline. yes, inflation. two stocks are keeping dow's losses in check right now although disney has just been claimed by the bears. it just turned negative. it is now, after having been up 5% at a session low, could be 12 cents. so that is -- down 12 cents. so that is a significant swing here. we've got activist investor stories swirling, and there is one message, especially if you look at salesforce which is up 2.5%. these two stocks together give one message, agitate companies' managements, and there is a good bet you get what you want. we are talking about activist investors in both these companies. let's start with salesforce shares, they are actually topping the cow. you can see it right there, followed by walmart.
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visa as well. disney was in second place. not now. all right. let's get to salesforce. another activist investor becoming the fifth to push for change at the customer relationship management software giant. "the wall street journal" hitting the tape with a report that guy, daniel loeb, known for buying up shares of companies and then demanding shake-ups and board seats, has joined a crowded field of activists including elliot, tarboard -- starboard and jeff oven's inclusive capital. as activists say game on at salesforce, disney's activist is investor, nelson peltz, announcing this morning, game over, i win. peltz entered the fray january 12th when the stock hit ankle -- hit an 8-year low. today after ceo bob iger's concession to slash 7,000 jobs and clash 5.5 billion in cost cuts, peltz's battle which
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lasted less than a month during which the stock actually popped if we go to that month -- yes. the stock actually kid move 30% to the upside. declared to cnbc he's satisfied and has ended his proxy fight. but are disney's troubles really over? if all gains gone right now. disney just reported negative cash flow, and its theme park employees just rejected its contract offer. is the stock that's better to hold in your portfolio if you want a streamer, with theme parks and content, disney or rival comcast? which, like disney, has theme parks, and it makes content. let's debate it with equity research kenneth leone, he has a buy rating on disney with a price target of $135, and new street research managing partner jonathan chap haven who has a buy rating on comcast and a clash 48 price target. ken, obviously, disney is widely held. a lot of our investors hold it in just their retirement fund or basic stock fund. specker of nelson peltz is
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gone -- the 13ebg9er of nelson nelson peltz is gone, why do you still have a buy? disney has a cash position that's significantly down from three months ago. >> so what we see for disney is really stronger results when you look at this year. there's definitely now mile posts where we can see on the restructuring and better focus on running all the businesses. for disney, that was really a step behind some of its competitors, and, you know, it's not just, it's not just streaming, but the legacy networks broadcast as well as pay f the cable, they -- pay tv cable, they just weren't doing well. compare that to fox's results yesterday, which were spectacular and we have a buy on fox, all of a sudden we have iger talking about the value of
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live sporting and maybe live news. that really will unfold this year. we also have will -- will see the high programming costs come down perhaps 3 billion but even getting it from 30 to 27 billion, netflix gets 80-90% of the top hits for movies and for tv episodes every week, and they spend $17 billion. so there's more work to be done, but i think with iger in the seat9 we're definitely positive on the outlook. liz: jonathan, you've got the buy on comcast. you increased revenue because of the universal parks business which goes head to head with disneyland and disney world. and then there's the hulu question, the streaming question. give me your case for comcast. >> so case for comcast, i think, is a little bit different. they've got streaming, they've got theme parks, and their theme parks are killing it, by the way. they've also got a broadband business, and that's the business we're most excited
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about in 2023. expectations for broadband got destroyed during 2022. people were already worried that this was a business that couldn't you for comcast. and i think that perspective is going to completely flip in 2023. you saw the multiple for comcast get crushed last year. ofst going to recover this year as -- it's going to the e cover this year as people recognize the broadband business is just as good as it was a couple years ago. that's going to be the driver for the stock this year. on top of that, you've got theme parks where everybody's expectations are way too low are. they're doing some really interesting things on expansion ideas with theme parks into with smaller cities that i think is going to be a value generator over time. they've got an id advertising business like disney that we're actually a little bit worried about with shun his thing at this point -- advertising at this point in the year, there's still 50% chance we're going to end up in a recession, and if we
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do, everybody's advertising estimates for all of these media companies are too high. it's a much smaller part of comcast than it is for disney, so we don't worry about it as much. but it's really the broadband business that's driving our enthusiasm for comcast. liz: okay. so, okay. you guys, make your cases here. i gotta bring up the fact that i hulu, you know, we really kid see that hulu's future, which it shares with comcast, is still undecided. kenneth, we did not hear from bob iger a firm sort of focus of what he plans to do, sell what they own to -- he doesn't want to give that position up, obviously, because then he weakens his negotiating position. but what does he do with that, and what does it mean, certainln follow up with jonathan about comcast, because brian roberts is a masterful ceo who -- who who wins this one? that start with you, kenneth. >> it all depends what's put on the table. if it's just distribution for
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hulu, i'm not sure disney wants it. they obviously have the value of the contempt, the libraries. and it is -- content. and it is definitely in its own right a great franchise. whether disney+ needs that in the fold of a bundling remains unclear, and a lot of this really has to do with pricing. but with disney+ and the size of its subscriber base and espn, i would like to see iger put hulu, the majority interest that disney has, to comcast or perhaps another large media company that wants it. i don't think disney needs to pick $8-9 billion to buy the minority interests of hulu and leverage up the balance sheet. we already saw that in 2019 with $71 billion acquisition of 20th century fox. liz: interindiana thement, which, you know -- entertainment, which rupert murdoch sold with top props to him and fox. but the fact is we look at this opportunity, jonathan, you had
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disney losing 2.4 million subs in the first quarter for disney +, first ever loss. hulu added 800,000 for a total of 48 million. peacock is no slouch here, especially when you're looking at streaming i. added 5 million paid subs for 20 million total users in its fourth quarter. we know that it might be behind in certain realms here, but where does it stand in streaming? >> so i would take the other side, i think. come comcast is going to sell hulu to disney. i think disney needs it, comcast doesn't. comcast has a fair if amount of leverage in that discussion, so they're going to get paid, and that's another piece of upside that's not reflected in the equity, from my perspective. people are carrying it at the min minimum value, but i think they're very likely to sell it to disney for more than that. disney, i don't think, can afford to not own all of hulu.
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liz: okay. and, kenneth, in the end, you know, i looked at exactly what the cfo had said, and and she expected that they would have, that disney would have -- and i'm just, because there were so many targets here and so many numbers -- she had said, christine mccarthy, that we still expect that revenue and operating income growth for the fiscal year will be in the high single-digit range. if i'm an investor, maybe i'm like, wait, nelson peltz, come back. we need that number to be better, no? >> this is a large company, and the parks is growing 25% revenue. it will till be fairly large growth, and it's really getting the rest of the house in really operational whether it be the linear networks or streaming to break even at the end of fiscal '24. so there's a lot of more work to be cone, but costs -- to be done, but costs are coming down, and they're going to the make
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smart business decisions. i'm not sure they need hulu at the end of the day. liz: low of the session for disney, 111.13. this is not good, not a good performance, certainly, on the day where the activist investor question e daddinged and said, okay, bob iger, you can run this thing. great to have you both, kenneth, jonathan. please come back. >> thanks. liz: not the only games in town, hardly. up next, i-earnings and the federal reserve has another early morning rally retreats into the red. folks, look at the dow. it had been up 303 points, it's now losing 226. we're coming right back. " claman countdown" is just getting started. don't move. ♪ lomita feed is 101 years old this year and counting. i'm bill lockwood, current caretaker and owner. when covid hit, we had some challenges
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liz: i gotta look at disney again, folks. nows the really plummeting, down 1. 33%. remember, the high of the is session, $117, now it is 110 and change. so really watching people exit this stock at the moment even hoe the activist, nelson pletle, had said this morning, okay, we're happy, we're down here. we don't have to the agitate anymore, we like what's happening, cost cuts of clash 5.5 billion, 7,000 job cuts. but you just heard our -- well, it wasn't actually a bull-bear debate, we had a pro-comcast and pro-disney. those analysts going head to the head on the positivity on both sides, but at the moment the current problems are still very much in place at disney. let's get ott the major indices here and speaking of current problems, what happened? i mean, you've now got the dow making brand new session lows,
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down 252 points. just a second ago i was told in my -- new low is 244 to the downside, and it's just continuing to fall here. s&p down # 3. the -- 33. the early low was a loss of 24, so these are increasing momentum. and you've got the nasdaq down about 111 points and, you know, this is just not a -- 108 points, rather. back and forth action. st the almost like a ping-pong game, although we only have one runner at the moment, and that's the bear. for a head-spinning cay on wall street, major averages did turn the on a dime, sinking into the red. and the biggest reversal that we have seen has really been with the dow jones industrials swinging more than 400 points from peak to trough, but we need to make note of treasury yields as well. never a dull moment in bond with land, and right now this afternoon it's no different. we are watching the gap between the 2-year and the 10-year yield stretch out -- [laughter] like silly putty to the steepest
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gap since 1981. if you talk to the experts, they would say that is screaming recession, but we're not there yet. in fact, the bulls showing up in full force. they're stampeding anywhere, it's toward the casino if sec to. mgm resorts is popping 6.7% after reporting higher revenue and a new share repurchase plan, and then you've got wynn which also reported stronger than attempted. moving higher by 4%. both posting larger than expected losses, but their optimistic outlooks, wynn said it experienced a, quote, meaningful return of visitation and demand in macao, the chinese gambling mecca, during the new year holiday. las vegas sands are hitching on to that wagon a little bit. lvs up a quarter of a percent. chinese adr ares earlier were seeing gains, alibaba up 2.8% on
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hopes for a continued economic recovery post-covid lockdowns there. at this hour investors in the u.s. looking ahead to big quarterly reports after the closing bell. we are waiting on paypal, lyft and expedia. all three are moving lower with lyft the biggest loss leader, could be about 3%. economic data, we can't forget that, weaker employment data has been helping market sentiment at least earlier in the session. we got the number of weekly jobless claims, these are first-time unemployment, i need to get benefits applications jumping up by 13,000 to 196,000. that's more than expected. and while it's, perhaps, a small kind of a tiny crack in the labor market, the overall jobs picture does remain strong, and that, of course, causes concern over the fed's restrictive rate hike policy, posing some downside risk for stocks maybe. wall street's fear index calling the 20 level, 20.70 at the
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moment, but still a gain of 5.5%. until there's clarity, what's the smart money doing? let's get right to the floor show, joining me now, northwestern mutual wealth management cio greg chutety and scott bauer. scott, traders never depend on wait til there's clarity, because there's never claire i. -- clarity. how are you forging ahead on your equity bets? >> yeah. it's been real busy down here. this is the s&p 500 options pit behind me, and, you know what? , liz? i've been fading the rally in these chinese stocks. i think there's just a little bit too much, too quickly here based on the reopening, based on, you know, the coming back from their lunar new year. and you've got these reports out of these casino stocks, very impressive in, you know, chinese people coming back. liz: yeah. >> however, i really think moving forward here we're going to the see a bit of a pullback. and i liken that to what i think
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is going to the happen with expedia as well. i think expedia's going to report really good numbers for the last quarter. however, because of what's going on with inflation, because consumers are pulling back, we saw that, you know, mattel and hasbro, right? people are just not buying those as much as some of those goods z that they were in the past. i think we're going to see that with expedia and some of the travel also. so i'm very cautious moving forward. and you hit the nail on the head, that inversion, that 2-10 inversion which is now the highest in some 40 years, it's almost 90 basis points, okay? that is just signaling, signaling what consumers are already doing, pulling back a little bit. liz: okay, all right. and, brent, sure enough we got first-time jobless claims that showed, yes, more people are suddenly filing for unemployment benefits. so what does that tell you about equity investment picture at the
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moment? >> well, i think we've kind of cooled off the inflation fears just a bit, but i think the biggest fear coming forward is going to be a recession. i do think the 2-10 spread, i think other metrics show recession's coming, and i think that's going to be a cause of volatility as you push forward. to me, we're not all clear yet. the jobs picture certainly ties into that. i don't think the fed is going to stop until they see unemployment rise. and i think that's coming in the not too distant future. liz: yeah, i would think so. brent, so where are you seeing opportunitieses, or are you just waiting for the so-called clarity? >> no. i mean, i think most people would say to you that they would feel better with the market if it were just cheaper. so we are looking for the cheaper parts of the market. you mentioned a lot of names more technology-oriented. the s&p 500 is still expensive especially given the outlook that we have, but there are parts of the market that aren't such as u.s. small caps, value stocks. look, i know they're more
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economically sensitive and i think a recession's coming, but they do tend to bottom before a recession ends, and i think any such recession we are going to get is going to be mild and uneven. liz: scott, really quickly, we have just hit the tape on foxbusiness.com with a story that i was able to file. sources are telling fox business and "the claman countdown" regarding activision blizzard and microsoft, of course, this was the huge story yesterday. activision is powering higher, up about 3%. and the news is that sources are telling us in the unlikely vent that this merger -- event that this merger does not go through with microsoft at $95 a share or at all, bobby coe tick, the ceo of activision, will absolutely, quote, stay on and run the company. but they all have confidence at least, these people who are close, sources close to the situation, that this merger will go through despite what the u.k. regulators filed yesterday which was concern about competition. is there a play here?
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>> yeah. i mean, you can look to buy those upside calls maybe 3 or 6 months out, maybe the 85-90 strike in the hopes that this thing does get to the 95. but on the op opposite side of that, liz, in the event that this thing does fall apart, activist probably heads back to the $60 level. right around that area it was trading, you know, a year and a half or two the years ago when this news first came out. so that is something that i would be watching. if it because fall apart for whatever reason, i think it absolutely negatively impacts activision way more than it does microsoft. liz: i don't know, they've got clash 18 billion in cash on the books. we'll be watching it all. we encourage everybody to go on foxbusiness.com, the story about activision blizzard and microsoft, it's an an exclusive, check it out. brent and scott, thank you. we're coming right back. hi, i'm ladonna.
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increase energy, and improve performance. rush to walmart for test x180 from force factor. liz: fox business alert, stellantis is kicking into high gear as it look to extend its powerful run in 2023. it on a could be day as well, up 3.6%. the maker of dodge, ram ask jeep up more than 18% year to date, looking to get investors e even more juiced as they showcase their hornet suv at the chicago auto sale. it's going to go on sale starting at $30,590. madison alworth joinings us live at america's largest car show with some more hot wheels.
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madison. >> reporter: hey, liz. yes, we're at the auto show. it's a very exciting year, because this is the first time since covid that it is back at full capacity. tons of cars and activation. we are op on a track exclusively for ev. i wanted to start here, because i think it shows just i how much dedication this is to this space at the chicago auto show. and we're going to be giving you a ride on this track. while we get in the car, i want to show some video that we shot earlier of the aria four-wheel drive. this is a car that can do any weather condition, all four wheels, and it's the ev, which i think says a lot about the industry. i'm in the car with ted. ted, let's talk about that aria four-wheel while we start up the two-wheel and get going. you know, when evs started, it was a city vehicle for short mileage. now you have a four-wheel drive. are we really there? is the consumer ready for a winter weather, all-condition ev vehicle. >> absolutely. the aria is well positioned for
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all 50 statements with the e-force four-wheel drive technology, it performs well in anied road condition. >> reporter: okay. one of the things i've been talking about is those tax credits. when they were first released with the inflation relief bill, we knew that there'd be a price tag for cars that qualify. now we're going to get more details in march about maybe where chips are made and construction. what do you know about that march date and what we should be learning? >> we know aria's not produced in north america, so it will not qualify for the tax credit, however, the leaf is made in the united states, and it currently does qualify for the full $7500 tax crept. nissan will continue to aassess -- reassess. >> reporter: leaf is one of the cheaper ones on the market. even still the, 5% of all new vehicles last year were electric, right? it's a small portion of the market. how is nissan going to push that
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number higher, and are we investing too heavily in a space that is still too smallsome. >> so it was 5%, but that's up from 2% the year prior, so we're seeing rapid growth in the ev space, and i think we're seeing that with cars like the nissan aria which sits in the mid-sized compact/suv segment, so well positioned for all different types of drivers. leaf is very affordable, and aria's spaced appropriately above that right in the sweet spot of the market. >> reporter: cool. a lot of folks have also been big on the family vehicle, this is currently a five-seater -- ooh, yeah, let's accelerate. to do we have any vehicles coming on the market for more than five seats in niece saw? >> right now the plan is for five-seater. right now i think the interior space in the aria definitely fits the bill. plenty of leg room, as you can feel in the front and the rear. >> reporter: awesome. liz, i think the big focus is
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affordability, lots of talk around the tax credit because there's going to be changes in terms of who qualifies and just getting the family in a vehicle at a price point that makes sense. back to you. liz: i'm a fan of high hybrids with as well. i drove one of the lexus hybrids, i loved it. you really only have to go to the gas station every six weeks or something, and that price point of 30 grand plus, i like that. thank you, madison, very much. and thanks to the stellantis the folks. fox business alert, we have a new dow session low. folks, this number is accelerating to the downside. now down 323. keep your eye on the lower ticker here. in the meantime, bring with your eyes back here. [laughter] from autos to auto parts, o'reilly automotive up 3.7% after last night's better than expected earnings report. o'reilly's eps coming in at clash 8.37 -- $8.37, well above the 7.75 estimates. the auto parts retailer also reported a 10.7% jump in revenue
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and comparable sales growth of 9%. that's more than double the summits. strong sales -- the estimates. strong sales offsetting the light profit guidance. affirm investors not waiting til later, they are selling shares right now to the tune of a loss of 19.33%. the stock is plunging after the buy now, pay later firm posted a disappointing quarterly report. affirm coming in with a wider than expected loss of about 10, and also announcingst the cutting 19% of its work force which equates to about 485 employees. boy, that company got big fast. now it will shrink along with a lot of other silicon valley companies doing the same. by the way, yahoo! announced job cuts today as well. canopy growth going up in flames, plunging 17% right now. the pot producer seeing wider than expected losses for the third quarter but also lower revenue following the kiss the mall report -- dismal report that it plans to reduce its work
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force by about 60, 6-0, percent. and exit the flower production business in canada. and we've got some breaking news just hitting the tape about crypto exchange crabbingen. kraken is going to the agree to wind down a major segment of its business and pay $30 million as part of an enforcement settlement with the securities and exchange commission. kraken has agreed to cease one of its offerings known as staking which is a way to earn yield on your cryptocurrency. you can see that bitcoin is responding negatively as are e three yum and litecoin. of coinbase also getting slammed after ceo brian armstrong said rumors are floating around that the sec may wand to -- want to end staking for its u.s. retail customers. so i'm going to just pull up coin. coin's down about 14%. not a good session here. and earlier -- it opened at about $68, it's now at 59.66.
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ftx founder sam bankman-fried in a new york courtroom just a few hours ago to discuss bail terms with the judge as the crypto exchange's collapse still casts a pall over the entire currency sector. kevin o'leary joins "the claman countdown" live in just minutes to react to today's events and tell us what he really thinks now about the one-time crypto wonder kind, sbf. you may be surprised what he says. closing bell, 23 minutes away. you must not miss our interview with kevin to leery, that's next. next. ♪ right? uhh...nope. intuit quickbooks helps you manage your payroll taxes, cheers! with 100% accurate tax calculations guaranteed.
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started buying land, was in the house of representatives. finding out this family history, these things become anchors for your soul. liz: ooh, we're talking about the ftx crypto collapse and sam bankman-fried, but there's a bunch of news hitting the tape. we just gave you a feel for it a
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second ago before the commercial break. a judge today exend thing an order banning ftx ceo sam bankman-fried, seen here this morning in new york city, from using encrypted communication applications like whatsapp til february 21st. during a court appearance today. the original date had been february 1st, so so no more for him. fox business chief national correspondent connell mcshane joining us from u.s. district court where the judge refused to make modifications to the bail of sbf. >> reporter: yeah. it's interesting, liz, he said you don't think this fen -- defendant is smart enough to use something without -- smart enough to use something without the encryption from a computer? this goes beyond just the apps, that he might find a way to reach out using some sort of a secret code and contact a witness and potentially tamper with a witness in this case. even if he is, as he has been,
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banned from using these encryptedded apps. the judge even had an example from history, talking about mary queen of scots in the courtroom, said he's been reading a lot about the coded letters she wrote more than 400 years ago. for now, he's going to keep that ban you were talking about in place at least until the 121st of february concern 21st of february before he makes any final ruling. here is sam bankman-fried as he arrived here. he was in a hurry rushing into the courtroom, right through security and into the courtroom of louis kaplan. and then on his way out, you know, we always try to talk to him, but no comment for any of us waiting, heading back to his parents' home, of course n california. we know now why the judge rejected the agreement earlier in the week to just ban the use of these apps. clearly, liz, he thinks maybe there's more to it. maybe sam bankman-fried might find some sort of a work-around and, obviously, wants to avoid that so there's no tampering
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with witnesses ahead of the trial. liz: i mean, as the world turns, certainly, connell. thank you very much. many of the spokespeople who endorsed ftx are also getting sued for appearing in paid advertising campaigns. former spokesperson kevin o'leary was an early investor in ftx and a paid spokesperson. he lost his entire investment of o'leary ventures and "shark tank" fame. he joins me and charlie grass perino -- gas perino. your first appearance since this morning's court appearance. you have to talk to us about, kevin, how you feel about him now. because in the days after ftx filed for bankruptcy but before sbf was charged with fraud, you said you would back him again. how do you feel now? >> i kid say that before all of these alleged frauds and charges occurred because i've known for the last 14 years in the content of "shark tank" and all the invest oring i do outside of it. i i actually invest in many
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entrepreneurs that have had catastrophic failures once, twice, even three times because they learn so much from that. but, obviously, not if you are charged by the federal government, am i going to invest in anybody that that happens to. and so, you know, it was ache then out of context. -- taken out of context. i still believe that great entrepreneurs are ones that have experienced catastrophic failure. whatever happens to sam bankman-fried is an often -- unknown at this point, and i'm sure it'll play out. on an institutional level, that's not where the narrative is anymore. the narrative now on this case is around recovery. in the last 20 days, the inyou went coe and the rumor has been that they found $4.2 billion in the caribbean islands, clash 1.2 billion domestically, up to $400 million cash somewhere else. we don't have the facts yes. but -- yet. but if that's ooh true, we as investors not only in the equity, but those account
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holders like me and millions of others, it's time to show that data to us. you don't have to give it back to us, but why not turn the account back on so we can see the records? >> that's a good point, kevin. charlie gasparino here. by the way, we on "the claman countdown" first reported that it could be a long, drawn-out process. some of that money is somewhat illiquid. remember, we were there there first, but it's going to be a long process. the question i do have for you, if you were on "shark tank" and you saw sam bankman-fried come before "shark tank" with his disheveled hair and his shorts and slippers and he gave you the business model of ftx with a side hustle of a hedge fund, would you guys have given him the money or would he have won? would you guys have called him to the carpet?
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because it seems like from the beginning this is kind of a suspect business model. >> well, obviously at the beginning of this, and, you know, if you think about the institutional investors down that list, they are the who's who of venture capital and large pools of capital. i mean, it's the creme de la creme, and we all look like idiots today -- >> you guys are sharks. >> that would have never -- that deal would have never made it on "shark tank" just from valuation alone, not a chance. >> okay, so, right. so if you saw -- so then the question is, why did you get involved in it if you saw the alameda thing, his crypto exchange? it's kind of right from the beginning it looks weird. >> well, let me give you a stat that i think kind of sums it up for everybody that invests in venture capital, including this deal specifically. since the mid '50s when they started gathering this data in the boston region, when we invest concern and i say we, you know, the fact is that ftx was just a start-up.
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big start-up, but that's what it was. it's a brand new industry, and here you have this guy running around raising capital. so when we informs in 10 deals, 8 of them -- lizly i get that. >> yeah, and so -- liz: tim draper says every time i invest in something i kiss the money good-bye so when it comes back, i'm surprised. we get that. but now it is this big thing that has totally cast a pall over or the entire sector. >> it has. liz: coinbase and kraken now making concessions about so-called staking which is promising huge -- staking is the practice of promising lots of yield in return for people parking their money at these exchanges. what do you think of staking now? >> i think staking's very difficult. but, you know, i will say one thing about crypto. for all of the, you know, noise about it and the excitement, no institution's owned this stuff. and i'm very fortunate because when i got involved with ftx, i didn't put a single dollar or penny of any of my lp's money in
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this thing, only my own -- >> interesting. so, kevin, are you worried with about having to give back your money on the clawbacks? >> oh, anything could happen. i mean, you know, it doesn't change what i do tomorrow morning. yes, i lost $18 million. i hate it when that happens, i can guarantee you concern the. liz: me too. [laughter] >> i don't look -- like looking like a fool, but every once in a while i get a dna testing kit that sells for millions and millions of dollars that i bought into at, you know, 50,000. so these things come and go. but i will agree with what you just said. ftx, genesis, every week there's another go the zero blow-up. and i attended the hearings and testified at the senate about this. and let me tell you something i learned there. after the hearings were over, i went and talked to the senators in attendance. they are sick and tired of gathering every six months for the next crypto company that goes to zero -- >> by the way, who paid his
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bail, do you know? >> nobody knows. i can assure you, it wasn't me. [laughter] liz: it's the great to see you, kevin. please come back because we know somebody's going to be asked to every. it may be you. we love having you here. thank you. charlie, appreciate it. we are coming right back. dow is still down 191 points. ♪ ♪ -diversification, futures, options. fiduciary. leverage. [whispering] -frothy markets. psst. virtual real estate is a lock. ♪ cold hard cash ♪ j.p. morgan wealth management knows the world is full of financial noise. i'm looking at your asset mix and plan. you are right on track. great, thanks. our easy-to-use app and local advisors are here to help you figure out what's right for your investments. j.p. morgan wealth management.
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♪. liz: well, what an entire session. look and the screen. so this is why we're putting up an interest day pictures. you can see everything was sunshine and rainbows, "candy crush," first half of the day, then big plummet. you see from the far right-hand side of that chart we're slightly coming off session lows. the dow swing right now between top and bottom 645 points. right now still losing 231 for the cow. sam stovall, highly followed, chief strategist for fra research. sam, another day where the markets opened higher and then lost all the gains. what's going on? >> hey, liz good to talk to you again and thanks for that intro. i think the market is basically
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digesting the recent gains. we were up five consecutive weeks prior to one. we were higher by 9% through february 2nd. on top of that 7% advance in the fourth quarter of last year. we're looking at valuations 19 times forward earnings. which is about a 12% premium to the average going back to 2,000. also we just got a reading from the american association of individual investors saying, that their bullish reading picked up substantially. usually that is a good near term contrary indicator. so i would tend to say that investors are going to be looking forward toward inflation data next week and if that ends up being positive, i think we're back in the green. liz: okay. let's not forget, we were already in the green in the january effect. january we saw the s&p close out about 6%. and if you look at that so-called january barometer, the s&p performance in january
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often, when it is that good, accurately predict as bullish move for the rest of the year. 85% of the time that it's up 5% then we, then start to see a big move upside for the rest of the year. is that, why are you so certain that will be the case this year, and not an outlyer where we move lower? >> well, liz i always say history is a great guide but it is never gospel. you're absolutely right, whenever we have a positive january barometer the market sup 15% for the full year and risen in price almost 85% of the time. the number gets even better following a down year we're up on average 23% rising 92% of the time. but even if that number had been 100% it's still a a guide, not a guarranty. what makes investors optimistic they will be soon looking across
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the valley. the fed in our opinion eventually will stop raising rates. then investor will take advantage of the powell pause. historically the s&p gains about 13% nine months after the last rate hike. i mentioned nine months because that's usually how long it takes before the fed starts to cut interest rates. so investors are going to be looking to 2024, looking for double-digit earnings increases. basically saying the down year and fundamentals this year was a reflection of the down prices we had in last year. liz: okay. sam, you know what? great to have somebody who watched it over the years. give us that perspective. [closing bell rings] nasdaq on pace to snap a two week winning streak. on tomorrow, carlyle founder david ruben.

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