people or in this case the local state legislature in florida. i think this is an all-around positive situation for desantis and i'm sure disney is rethinking the wisdom of speaking out about the don't say gayla. gerry: don't say gay as that was one of the most as we had it fascinating that we have a situation where big business and republican went hand-in-hand and they do seem to be passageways the new politics, that's it for this week my great thanks to sarah westwood and philip levin we will be back next week on the wall street journal at large, thank you very much fo >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etfs.

jack otter: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. air force jets shootdown a second flying object after last week's china spy balloon. ian bremmer on what is next for us/china relations and what it means for markets. investors knocked one hundred $70 billion off of the value of alphabet after microsoft unveiled its ai powered search engine. do we need to worry about smart robots? if you have 4% on your cash, you can do better. jack will tell us how. we begin with three things investors should be thinking about right now. stocks retreated after a fed official signaled interest rates could stay higher for longer, the market is cautious ahead of next week's key inflation report, scaling back its green ambitions after raking in record profits in 2022. what it could mean for

investors, bed, bath, and beyond, one of those might be a good investment. ben levisohn, carleton english and jack hough. after a strong start to the year, the market took a breather. ben: the biggest loss for the s&p 500 of the year, down 1% or so. there wasn't anything to cause it to happen. might have been lack of stuff. the job market is still strong. no recession. maybe there is no landing. this week we didn't have the economic data that was important so it creates a vacuum the market fell into. you had technical issues with the market bumping up resistance and earnings that were not so hot. ben: that's better than a soft landing if it doesn't land at all. let's talk about specific stuff which was earnings.

most are beating earnings expectations. analysts lower the bar until it can be cleared. they are not doing it by as much as usual and -- >> it does look like we will get an earnings decline for the first time since 2020. that's a problem for earnings and valuations. if earnings are going down, hard for the market to keep going higher. something to keep an eye on, earnings for this year are going down. jack otter: old market superstitions is route for the eagles in the super bowl. when the nfc wins the market does better. for our purposes we would rather look at the fed. ben: the market has been ignoring, john williams this week came in and said rates could stay high for two years

to make sure inflation comes down. the market is getting is that. there is some resistance but if they keep going up, it could be a problem for the market, the next thing is the cpi reading. another soft reading the market takes off and again. if it is hot again, that is rough. jack otter: what caught your eye? jack hough: bed, bath and beyond, they got something from hudson bay capital, the financing will be diluted to shareholders. these dramatic turns, changing your facial expressions, down 48%. down 14%, don't get too frowny. financing hasn't solved the problem that people don't want to buy the stuff they are selling in quantities. that is significant.

firm holdings, they plunged 17% thursday. that's not up by now pay never issue, rising rates are making shoppers reluctant to spend on credit. almost sensible, they are laying out costs, lift plummeted 36% on friday. unexpected loss, wedbush down, and winner take all market. lift is not the winner. disney had a big gain, didn't hold onto it. bob iger announced massive cost cuts, layoffs, could make streaming profitable sooner than people fought. there's a creative restructuring that i will call reverse, stripping out the things that happen. there will be more control over distribution. it's too early to call it successful.

if i could summon up, being a superhero is trial by fire. jack otter: bp discovered it is profitable to sell oil. carleton: they want to continue investing in renewable energy but energy companies, massive profits, you can't dial back so it is extending its timeline on that. wall street likes the idea, you have to measure energy security with affordability. oil and gas is profitable, you need to think of the future of renewables. jack otter: tensions rising after the us shot down a spy balloon.

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jack otter: with the ongoing war in ukraine, international relations look bleak. our next guest says the world may be able to emerge from what he calls a geopolitical recession. joining the is ian bremmer. thanks for coming on the show. let's start with china. where are us/china relations in a post-balloon world? >> post-balloons, there's more than one. this balloon program was meant to provide intelligence in the united states and others in the incident the chinese satellite

program goes down or a confrontation between the us and china over taiwan. is not like they were concerned there was more intelligence being gotten by the chinese over the course of that overflight. it is more that there is tensions between the united states and china. biden had no intention of knocking that thing down, nor were they going to end the blinken trip to see xi jinping until it became public. there's a performative aspect to us china relations because of domestic politics that are so acute and hawkish. jack otter: i want to go deeper into that. in a rare moment of bipartisanship, both republicans and democrats want to get tougher on china, like two tough guys in a bar, i am tougher, i am tougher, that could lead to bad things. >> it could. it could also lead to good things to the extent the chinese understand they don't get to play one side against the aisle, they are less likely

to want to push against the united states and we saw a speaker of the house, kevin mccarthy, say he's on the same team with president biden on russia/ukraine. the two most important national security challenges the united states faces, broad agreement across the aisle. that's an important thing. ben: exports and imports from china have been increasing in dollar value. the administration says it wants to reduce the ability of us firms use investment to fund chinese technology. those things seen in opposition, where do we go from here? >> keep in mind you are talking about a post covid environment so there will be a rebound. and inflation environment. the amount those dollars increase with the level of goods, the reality is the united states and china are massively interdependent economically. that's not going away.

it is true of all major us allies, the germans, the canadians, the japanese, the south koreans. that is not going to change. i will say in areas of dual use technology, pieces of economic investment that are also usable for military and strategic purposes the united states decoupling from china. you see it with quantum computing, the chinese are doing export controls, critical mineral developments, things like ev batteries and solar panel development. there is a tit-for-tat. it's not a decoupling of the two economies. jack otter: one area of competition is artificial intelligence. where does the us stand in ai versus china? >> these are the two ai

superpowers, the chinese have more data. 800 million people online, no privacy, they are all using a small number of super apps where the data is consolidated. to the extent ai is driven more by data the chinese have an advantage, americans have better entrepreneurial technology companies so if advances come from their, americans have an advantage. there's a debate between people who really for -- who really know ai, which one will win out. these are the places you will see the major developments, not coming from americans or the japanese. jack otter: you wrote the we are energy a political recession. are we coming out of that are we in it? >> we have economic recessions, boom and bust cycles, and in geopolitics. what happens is when the balance of power in global

politics are suddenly onboard from the institutions you created to manage the world, you get more conflict as a consequence of the crises, they create new institutions or reforming the old ones, nato is getting stronger, g7 is more aligned, you buddy deb has better governance, democrats and republicans agree on china and russia. you have the seeds of coming out of the geopolitical recession. the next 3 years are dicey. wat russia and ukraine. what do we know about that conflict in the depths of winter? >> the ukrainians are deeply concerned about maintaining the levels of support they may have been getting. nobody thinks that this war is over soon. ukrainians can losing that is why they push. we need jets, we need more.

zelenskyy is facing an x essential threat to his country. no matter what happens in ukraine the russians are going to lose, nato is expanding, the west is spending more on defense, their assets are being frozen. putin will be the humiliated leader of a rogue state, not a global power. that a serious problem when you think about 6000 nuclear warheads and the disruptive capabilities putin has. jack: winter is here. thank you for coming on the show i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this.

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jack otter: google never faced a serious challenger to the search engine thrown. ferrone. is chat gtp the first real threat? alex yule is here to talk about it. investors knocked one hundred $70 billion off of google's market value. >> the internet search market is up for grabs for the first time, maybe ever. google is under attack for the first time in 20 years. jack otter: for anyone who has not sorted this out, explain why. >> probably the best ever real-world example of artificial intelligence which consumers go to this free website, create songs, poems, essays, anything you can do with text, chat gpt will do for you and it looks pretty good at least on the surface. this has created a new frenzy.

jack otter: how does this help make microsoft a search engine? >> they had the foresight to be an early backer in open ai. now finally, a version of chat gpt into bing, maybe it will be a search engine we use. you do your search there and some of these other extra chat gtp like things, songs, summarizing, a long story you don't want to read that you dump into the search engine, it will be like a superpowered google, google will feel potentially own fashioned though they have their own version coming. carleton: we talked about the hit to the stock took. can you break down how this will impact google's bottom line? >> a few issues with google, it

has 95% of the search market, anything is coming straight from google, no other place to go. the other issue is it will be much more expensive to run a search program based on ai because there's more computing. it is on the bottom line to run this ad, and lastly there is this existential issue is that if chat gpt or artificial intelligence is so good you might get one hit and don't need long search lengths, no place to put advertising. there's a bunch of things going on. jack otter: i can't tell where the information is coming from? from barron or something i shouldn't be trusting? >> there's a lot of reason to

be worried and serious limitations here. it is only searching the internet of 2021, not doing current searchings. can't tell you the speaker of the house is, there will be a lot of issues. the providence of this is in question. don't know where you are getting question. jack hough: we understand hollywood fiction, the artificial aol gpt intelligence, whatever, perfectly safe, but i have been scrolling videos on twitter, let's take a look, i saw a robot dog, there are jumping robots. my question, what happens if the jumping dog robots get a hold of the ai and will this

put me out of work? will there be be an ai fueled nuclear war? and suppose i recently pounded on a vending machine, do the other machines know and should i apologize? take those in any order you want. >> you should worry about all of those. the combination of the robot and chat gpt, we need to think about the ramifications, a lot of people are thinking about it. the issue with ai is the better it gets the worse it gets. chat gpt is now really smart, or has the appearance of smartness. underneath it all, it is as smart as the internet it is searching from and we know how reliable chat bots are. you can buy a apps buying apps with robotic dogs. you should be worried. jack hough: apologize to the vending machine.

>> the way it's language is so good, used to be when you read stupid stuff on the internet, it was badly written. whatever its limitations, chat gpt has a future in poetry. we asked it to write a haiku about megan: 10 -- "barron's roundtable". jack hough: i have said too much. i don't want to bash machines anymore. jack otter ♪ i got into debt in college and, no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. so i consolidated it into a low-rate personal loan from sofi. get a personal loan with no fees, low fixed rates, and borrow up to $100k. sofi. get your money right. ♪ ♪ ♪

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jack hough: yields tract bond yields, there is one that schwab's calls it's purchased money funds paying close to 4. 5%. %. it's called purchase because you have to purchase it. if you don't come you get stuck in the bank sweep and that pays half of one%. the difference it is $50,000, $2,000 a a year, a massive differential. look for better money but don't get stuck in the bank sweep. one analyst downgraded the stock and said sabers move out of the worst accounts, schwab set our analysis suggests they won't. i think that is long-term bullish bordering on magical for the company. jack otter: people paid for aol emails for years. carleton: i'm looking at paypal, got a little excited about august but i like this as

a long-term stock play. it is topping the s&p 500. they announced a new ceo, it is trading cheaply compared to the broader market. i think there will be a lot going on with cost cutting. might be a bumpy ride. ben: it got knocked down this week. it is looking pretty interesting here. jack otter: more people might be using their equipment post covid. to read more, check out this week's addition of barron. follow us at twitter, barron online. enjoy th the following is an important paid program about humana medicare advantage prescription drug plans, sponsored by humana. there are many reasons why you may be eligible to enroll in a medicare advantage plan right now; call to see if you qualify. if you are losing