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♪ i feel good ♪ stuart: i don't know about i feel good when the market is going sharply but that is the music of the morning. it is from james brown. 10:00 eastern. have a look at this. the dow is down 443 points at this hour. in percentage terms that's 1.3%. it is a bigger loss on the nasdaq which is down 1.8% and 1.5% drop in the s&p 500, significant selling this morning, the 10 year treasury yield coming in right now, leading to 3.93%. this is all about the inflation rate. we got the word inflation at the producer level moved higher to 5.4% on an annual basis. investors don't like that.

stocks down, interest rates up, big tech across the board is down. i don't see a winner among those 5 stocks. all of them are down and bitcoin is not doing well either. it is down a fraction. 23-7 is your price. just after 10:00, we've got the number lose the latest read on new-home sales. lauren: sit wrong or than expected with us easily adjusted annual rate of 670,000 for the month of january. stuart: new home selling at an annual rate of give me the number again. lauren: 670,000. stuart: that's a pretty big number. lauren: stronger-than-expected, shows the state of the housing market is down a lot. stuart: we also had a number on consumer sentiment to. >> 67 even, this is for february.

it is a recent number. what do consumers think about inflation expectations are year from now, a little better, 0. one%, 5 years from now on target at 2.5%. stuart: still down 450 on the dow, 215 on the nasdaq. now this. today, on the 1-year anniversary of the ukraine war, china has put forward a 12 point peace plan that would remove all sanctions from russia and let them keep the part of ukraine they now occupy. that's a nonstarter. it does put the words peace talks and cease fire to the diplomatic mix after a year of war, and there is some value in that. in washington on the 1-year anniversary president biden announced a new to billion-dollar military aid package, all kinds of advanced weaponry on the way. today after one year of war the world bank estimates it will cost $349 billion to rebuild ukraine. a third of a trillion.

where is is all this going? a fox paul shows half of us are prepared to back ukraine, quote, as long as it takes. just under half put a time limit on it. split opinion on long-term support for the war. russia has already started a spring offensive and this could be jealous isis. i'm no expert but russia's military is not doing well. four times general jack keane told us this morning, flat out, the offensive will fail, ukraine can win, the russian troops can be pushed out by the spring. that's the time for cease-fires and peace talks, when zelenskyy in the west are negotiating from strength, not weakness, given what they need to win. second hour of varney just getting started.

retired lieutenant general richard newton joined me now. general, do you agree with general keane that if you give them what they need they can win and win quick? >> i do, and absolutely, i agree with jack keane. this is a significant day, the 1-year anniversary as you alluded to at the top of the clock, ukraine is winning, they can win this and it is now up to the united states and the west to keep the foot on the gas, the necessary capabilities not only to blunt what would be a russian spring offensive but also to win this thing, not in terms of the conditions set on february 24th of last 24 of last year, all the way back to 2014, to borrow president zelenskyy's key points that he wants in a negotiated settlement, and back to you training territory of 2014 to

compensate ukraine for this invasion and to pursue war crimes but that's another conversation. was we need to be doing as quickly as possible resupply ukraine with ammunition, arms and supplies. secondly continue to provide precise capabilities in terms of tanks, javelins, and what senator graham says, f-16s and aircraft. stuart: what should our response be if china does carefully filleted to russia? >> if they do so we have a whole different ballgame because china has entered into the fray they are doing this not for russian interests but chinese interests as they try to expand beyond the asia-pacific region and become a global superpower and replace the united states so strange bedfellows between russia and china, they are both dedicated

to thwarting the united states and diminish the influence of the united states. we -- when these two bullies, the only thing they understand his strength and power and demonstrated capabilities, we shouldn't flinch, we shouldn't be timid, we should arm ukraine with the most capable arms we possibly canada since we can and that includes training and that will not only deter putin on the battlefield and defeat his army even more so but also about the long-term effects this has on china, china's -- has eyes on taiwan, if it sees weakness in the united states as it is now more emboldened that will be significant challenge. stuart: more strength from the united states. thanks for joining us, appreciate it. treasury secretary janet yellen is warning china don't help russia with the war in ukraine, she's taking a hard line. ashley: she is. yellen and the treasury

department point to attempt by the kremlin to acquire advanced semiconductors from beijing is evidence of deepening ties between the two nations. speaking the head of the financial leaders in india, yellen sent a clear warning to china. >> material support to russia or assistance with any type of systemic sanctions invasion would be a very serious concern to us, we will certainly make clear the chinese government, to companies and banks in their jurisdiction, they would face consequences for violating them. ashley: she didn't outline those consequences but yellen says the us will crackdown on any attempt to violate existing sanctions on russia. there have been doubts how

effective those sanctions are, the treasury secretary says the penalties are helping to sap russian resources and putin's war chest. stuart: now this. jamie dimon, some say he is america's top banker. he says the federal reserve has, quote, lost a little bit of control of inflation. do you agree with that? has the fed lost control? >> his perspective is discounted by every government official, fed official and he's right. inflation isn't like a new outfit you just try on, it's a malignancy. is a cancer. it is here to stay and it is going to persist. this is why gerald ford called it public in a number one in 1960s, flummoxed four presidents. inflation is here to stay. whether we see it in today's or tomorrow's numbers, it is impacting every american's quality-of-life.

stuart: any way it comes down? this year, producer price inflation, 5. 4%. this year 2023, can we bring it down 3% or 4%? >> history doesn't suggest that. think about interest rates, interest rates on the rise, the best evidence is not just that interest rates are rising, the yield curve is to medically inverted, 6-month government bond, yields 5%, 30 year government bond yields 4%, that's a sign of very unhealthy economy, very sick economy, in which inflation has not been addressed. as was just reported americans expectations are that inflation is going to come down, the data doesn't support that. need to be careful about committing money to stocks or bonds. stuart: coming to you for exotic investments, how could i

invest in the sugar market? >> you got to go where the action is. we talk about oj going to all-time highs, milk prices, when asset i'm looking at is cane, own it for clients, an etf that follows the price of sugar, sugar futures. casting a wide net and you have to look at commodities and other areas off the beaten path, trying to make money in these difficult markets. 1970s, commodities were the only asset that worked, looking at those investments now given the inflation the government doesn't want to admit simply isn't going away. i remember the 1970s vividly. you don't remember them but that is okay. come back and see us next week. elon musk weighing in on the white house's plan to pick the next fed chair based on diversity, tell me more about this? lauren: he is the voice of reason. this is what elon musk is tweeting, maximum skill with

monetary policy is extremely important in this role. a bad fed decision affects the lives of everyone. main street doesn't care if the fed vice chair is black, white, male or female, we don't care, you just want to know what interest rates are because that affects your life. the white house is saying the opposite. watch here. >> clearly feeling that vacancy is something that is important to the president and will certainly nominate someone -- when it comes to diversity, you've heard from the president and from me, diversity and representation is really important to this president and we are going to look at, the president is going to look at a highly diverse group of world-class economists, just as we did for the previous fed nominations. >> two women professors, carrie dimon and janice everly considered to replace lyle brainard as fed vice chair. they were both advisers to

president obama, highly qualified, mary daly of the san francisco fed is the name also being tossed around. seth carpenter, chief global economist at morgan stanley. guess who is out? reportedly, austan goolsbee. also president of the chicago fed, senator bob then and does. stuart: okay. i will move right along. no comment from me at all. it was the commercial break i'm talking about. tesla down nearly 4%. >> there to report the new york factory faces further racism allegations from employees, investors looking for a catalyst for tesla. it could come next week. stuart: show me sinemaarche, movies down. lauren: they are recovering.

it was down sharply earlier, they swung to a fourth-quarter loss and missed revenue. i was saying avatar 2, such a strong box office performer. the storms could have kept people away during the fourth quarter but i looked at the concessions which average concession $7.43 a person. that's a lot. $7.43. do you purchase your stuart: everyone pays that much? i thought it would be more. neo is down 4%. now this. the days of spending all your time doing chores around the house might soon be over. artificial intelligence experts say nearly half of household chores will be done by robots. role it. ♪

stuart: okay. we will tell you how soon that could happen. despite rising food prices americans are shelling out big bucks to dine out. 25% more than last year. is it really cheaper to eat out than to purchase groceries, the man himself, bart rescue guy john tapper is going to be with me on set. he's in new york and is next. ♪

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selling off, dow is down 450, nasdaq down 234 and now this. the job market down south causing some concern for the fed chair, jerome powell. what has powell got to be concerned about in the south? ashley: in economic parlance, a wage price spiral which means higher food prices has led to workers wanting higher pay to preserve their living standards so they ramp up prices to compensate for the big wages and that is wage price spiral, the spiral the fit is trying to straighten out by raising interest rates, what some call supercore inflation. strong consumer spending on services, they have been able to charge more and persistent demand allowed businesses to offer more jobs and better pay. there's a small silver lining. the rate of average hourly earnings is slightly down,

unfortunately for the fed, the labor market remains strong. all of these points were made by business owners in the south to say this is the trend. they have to pay workers more so they have to raise prices because consumers are paying high role prices. it to spiral upwards. stuart: in particular bad in the south. now, look at this. consumers are choosing to spend more money to dine out at restaurants rather than purchase groceries, that is inflation, dining out is up 8%, the price of groceries up 11%. we have the ideal guy to address this, john tapper, you know him, i know him, frequent guest on the show. it really cheaper to eat out? >> a 30% food cost, if a chicken breast costs $4 and i charge you $12 for it, you can't compare the product in a restaurant to the raw product in the kitchen.

look at the value equation from the inflationary standpoint, it is up 8%, grocery stores up 11% so there's a perceived value in those numbers but what is killing restaurants, every product, i can charge you $3 so something that is up $6, charge $18 more for we get into price -- stuart: i don't get it. something costs $6 in a restaurant, you've got to charge a consumer $18? that is how it works? >> in the restaurant industry roughly 1/3 of revenue cost 1/3 of your revenues. those percentages can't change. if my cost goes up, i still have to deliver 30% food cost so every dollar my cost goes up i have to increase prices by $3. it becomes very difficult when you look at energy costs going

up, labor costs going up, things like soaps, ketchup, $0.40. those little packets if you can get them. people grabbed handfuls of them. these are causing a unique situation. the industry is bullish which average restaurant up 25%. fighting for profitability is a greater struggle than ever before and is causing restaurant operators not to be as assertive as they could. still a little stunned by the pandemic. not as assertive to solve please issues, sort of on a ride rather than driving it, riding in a bus. at one restaurants across the country, you build very well, how do you beat inflation your kitchens? what can you do to innovate the restaurant business? to cut your risk of exposure?

>> robotics, cleaning your home, five years ago at the restaurant convention, there were over a hundred. the answer is i can't get labor so i've got to solve the problem as technology becomes my solution. it isn't the technology is taking away jobs, technology is filling jobs we can't get other people to fill, pizza machines, burger flippers, these devices that are taking over, restaurants are all robotic with automated cooking, 60% less people in the kitchen than other restaurants but better quality because it is all automated, no mistake factor. stuart: most people in our audience know you from bar rescue and you've got a new season coming out this sunday. show the preview please, roll it. >> let me tell you what i have learned, sitting outside with your wife for half an hour.

she was sitting right there. it is your business. stuart: he hasn't lost his touch. >> last year was a mellow season because covid was a valid excuse, covid is over, revenues are higher as i just said to. if a restaurant operator needs to step up it is now. better with your employees, but with your food, get more engaged in your business, it is boomtown. i'm tough on them this year. stuart: you've never been exactly soft, have you? that is not your style. >> i'm saving people in a hold during debt. this is serious business. i am saving the national future. that a big deal. stuart: i think you are all right and hope you come back on the show at some point soon. good luck.

on a related note a company in california recalling one of its air fryers. john doesn't use this but what is happening? they catching fire? lauren: the consumer product safety commission reported 205 complaints, 23 reports of property damage, 10 minor burns. so they can burn, melt, smoke, overheat, they were sold all over the place at home depot, online, walmart, amazon. if you have one, i do, contact the company for a refund. blue on what is your problem with air fryers? >> they are healthy and we can use them. i don't want to set my house on fire. >> i thought you would put your nose up to it? >> it is great. stuart: listen to this. another of these new reports that keep popping up on this program. a new report reveals one in 3 parents may be giving their children fever reducing medications even when it is not necessary. medical experts say that could make it harder to fight off

infections. doctor siegel will be here shortly. pete buttigieg admits it took too long to address the train derailment, roll tape. >> the answer is yes. i felt strongly about this, could have expressed that sooner. stuart: what we are going to deal with, pete buttigieg's delayed response, we will play the full soundbite next. ♪ ♪ you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach

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stuart: look at the 10 year treasury yield, 393, that yield goes up, stocks go down. the yield is up and we have a hard inflation number this morning, 5.4% inflation at the producer level. lots of reading. we have some movies including lennar. it is down. lauren: that report on home sales came in stronger-than-expected. annual change in home prices

fell $427,500. the first annual decline since august 2020. prices are coming down in a big way. stuart: 670,000 new homes sold on an annualized basis. maybe it is up, that's a very low number. lauren: that's a small part of the housing market. stuart: ford down 2%. lauren: they extended the production, shut down for another week. there was a battery fire at one of their holding lots february 4th and they have not produced since then. stuart: neo is a chinese -- neil: ev maker. they are building their first barry plant with output capacity of 400,000 evs a year, that's a pretty big number. but when i noticed we are down 500 points on the dow industrials. hot inflation doesn't work for wall street.

president biden is yet to visit east palestine. instead he's heading home to wilmington, delaware, for the weekend. jackie heinrich with us now. did the white house say when the president might visit ohio? >> reporter: doesn't seem like the president is going to visit east palestine anytime soon. the white house sees it is showing up for the community with federal assistance. >> offering the assistance, offering the help, when you are seeing the federal government on the ground providing the assistance that is needed that is doing it directly and doing it, they are doing it on the direction of the president. >> reporter: president biden might take some cues from transportation secretary pete buttigieg who visited 20 days after the crash after widespread bipartisan criticism. regardless of the epa's presence, and rail companies apparent respond ability for the derailment, buttigieg admitting hindsight is 20/20 and he should have showed up

earlier. >> the answer to your question is yes. i felt strongly about this, could have expressed that sooner. i was taking pains to respect the role that i have, should not have stopped from weighing in about how i felt about this. >> reporter: the white house is quick to tell biden's calls to state and local officials but they are also directing blame at congressional republicans and the trump administration for letting this happen in the first place saying they worked in lockstep with the real lobby to dissolve safety rules, the white house calling on congress for reforms there. after the ntsb released initial findings yesterday, the cause of the crash, it is clear there will be a lot of scrutiny on norfolk southern's rules which allow crews to ignore alerts from track sensors which may have played a role in october derailment, the same rail company in sandusky ohio.

>> p buttigieg addressed -- one democrat says buttigieg is frustrated that he is, quote, taking a lot of bullets for the president. cassie, is buttigieg the fall guy for president biden. >> >> he's been absent on a number of issues and he has been secretary. that are late than never, but what about the other issues where he has been absent on? east palestine,. for the secretary to show up and just a press tour. and he is ready for prime time. and and failed people, pete

buttigieg is not ready for the party. >> >> is that a political win for trump, who did go there and a political loss for biden, who didn't go there and his transportation secretary went in 20 days to go there, a win for trump, loss for biden? what do you think? >> it shouldn't have been about politics in the first place. if they had done their jobs on day one they could have got these folks and help or at least some reassurance that the federal government was going to hold those accountable and ensure these folks get back to their everyday lives in a safe way. it didn't happen until this channel and your sister station brought it up. the administration thought they would fly under the radar on this one and the forgotten men and women of america could be forgotten in their

administration as well, that's the problem. it became political because they refused to deal with it on day one and communicate, you see donald trump and others who have swooped in to say they are not here for you but i will be and that is where this is a circus. stuart: have a great weekend. alec baldwin pleads not guilty to involuntary manslaughter in the deadly rest shooting so they are now filming that movie. we will tell you all about it. prosecutors say sandbanks of a man-fried funding his political donations, he's facing more criminal charges. that story is next. ♪

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stuart: shelby county, tennessee, formed a new committee studying reparations for descendents of slaves, $5 million to this reparations plan. jordan carpenter joins me now. $5 million, how do you stand on this? for or against? >> to advantage one racial group, that flies in the face of what america is supposed to stand for. play really dangerous game when we start using the law to advantage one over another based on race. stuart: if this money were to be paid, who would get it, and

would there be any strings on the money? >> the proposal is incomplete, they formed this, he, doing a study that might take a year, then see what $5 million will be used for. that's one of the practical problems that i see in this proposal. we have state officials in tennessee, the reality of using taxpayer dollars, using race preferences that -- also using federal dollars, the american recovery plan to pay for this which imploded. this is a very sensitive issue because of race and i don't think it is a difficult concept. each person has worked because each person is made in the image of god.

the blessings of liberty secured in the united states is we have equality under the law. when we violate that principle, get away from that and say we are going to treat you differently based on your skin color, we are taking several hundred steps backward. stuart: jordan carpenter, interesting perspective. we appreciate you coming on the show to tell us about it. we will have you back later when they figure out what they are going to do. we appreciate it. markets still seeing red ink, the dow is down 470, nasdaq, 240. a hot inflation number this morning. investors don't like it. sam bankman-fried facing four additional charges related to the collapse of ftx. take us through the new charges. ashley: prosecutors accusing bankman-fried of the stealing customers money to fund his political gimmick and trying to cover it up.

bankman-fried directed 3 million illegal campaign down nations, totaling up to $100 million to democrats and republicans through two other unnamed ftx executives who basically acted as donors to hide the source of the funds. prosecutors allege it was used for federal contribution limits, and hide the source of the money and also protect bankman-fried's reputation by keeping his name off of donations to political candidates and causes the final line with his centerleft public image which we point out the prosecutors do not allege any of the recipients of the donations including several members of congress, were aware the money was in violation of the law. they vowed to donate those to charity.

stuart: former msnbc's carlos watson went on to become chief executive at are the media, digital media startup, now being accused of lying to investors. what did he lie about? ashley: prosecutors -- it is an online media entity company that was launched in 2013, carried out an elaborate scheme to calm lenders and investors. the company was on the radar, someone at the company impersonated a youtube executive during a conference call with goldman sachs. watson appeared on nbc's today show saying he didn't know about the goldman deception. watch. >> it is sad and difficult, it was wrong, they figured it out very quickly.

ashley: watson, the tv contracts that led to investor losses, $50 million, the us attorney for eastern district of new york says, quote, as alleged, carlos watson is a con man, his business strategy based on outright deception. he ran azie as a committal organization rather than than a reputable company and not just watson facing charges. both of the company's former chief operating officer and chief of staff pleaded guilty to fraud charges. prosecutors say the company struggled for years and by 2017, cash was running out and investigators say that led to the fraud. watson's attorneys said it was disappointing saying they were working for the government as recently as this week. if convicted, watson faces 37 years in prison. stuart: tell me about alec

baldwin, he pleaded not guilty to involuntary manslaughter charges during the rest shooting, so what happens now? ashley: now he waits for the case to go through the system, scheduled to appear today in court, but waved his first appearance of his conditions of release prohibit him from possessing firearms and other dangerous weapons and not allowed to consume alcohol. prosecutors claim baldwin's deviation from known standards, practice, and protocol directly caused the fatal death of h halnya hutchins. baldwin has continued to say not guilty and it was all the result of a tragic accident. it is working its way through the courts. stuart: thanks. some people with adhd are being

forced to ration their medication because of an adderall shortage. i want to know why pharmacies are having trouble keeping shelves stocked with this stuff. we will be back. ♪ becoming their parents, it's a learning opportunity. come on in. [ chuckles ] the more, the merrier. paris, huh? bonjour! we got any out-of-towners in the elevator? tom. it is not easy. 10th floor, huh? must be a heck of a view. okay, see how everyone else is facing this way? progressive can't save you from becoming your parents, but we can save you money when you bundle home and auto with us. okay, that was terrible. okay, let's hang back. we're gonna try that again. your best defense against erosion and cavities is strong enamel- nothing beats it. new pronamel active shield actively shields the enamel

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stuart: we still have a see of reading on wall street. the dow is close to 500 points and the nasdaq is down 250 points. checkout big tech. all of them were down earlier, same story now. amazon, alphabet, microsoft, apple, meta on the downside. people with adhd struggling to find their medication because there is a growing shortage of adderall. some people rationing their doses, why the shortage? >> i didn't go to the london school of economics like you but i understand a little about supply and demand, the fbi -- the fda said there was is a shortage in october, now they are saying no shortage but the

problem is manufacturer santos says no shortage, the other three are not saying anything. the problem is the supply is not equal to the demand. we had 27% increase in the demand for adderall over the last couple years. this position says not all of it is necessary and some of it was provoked by the pandemic. people had to work remotely and developed and attention problems that led to demand for this drug. some of this is false inflation for demand, some of it is wrong physicians prescribing this. it has become popular. stuart: the danger here, it was

used by college students. if they can't get it regularly, and it is a real danger if they are laced with fentanyl. >> completely right. a really good point. it has something to do with outcome analysis. if you take the pill and do better on a test, you want more of the pill. if you can't get the pill you go to the social media, internet, you purchase it on the black market, we are seeing that, and people die from this. stuart: a quick point, one in 3 parents may give their children fever reducing medications when not necessary. it is harder to fight inflation. is this just a knee-jerk reaction on the part of parents? chuck medication at the kids when they might need it. >> it is a fear driven issue

that occurred because we have an rsv surgeon flew surgeon august and september, the university of michigan said parents were given kids automatically -- advil and tylenol when their temperature was less than 100.4 and i want to point out a low-grade fever, maybe your child's way of fighting off the infection, you don't need to knee-jerk treat of fever. how are you feeling? are you lethargic, temperature climbing? what the purpose of the medication. all medications have side effects. one third are over using these medications as a knee-jerk and it is fear from the pandemic. stuart: thanks for joining us, see you again soon. still had at the 11:00 hour, we have for you, shannon brame, rob o'neill, tomi lahren, mike murphy. senator bernie sanders pushing

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