media plays in this way and they have double standards and nobody addresses nobody has ever tackled. >> you do and i suppose a few people in your network to what is concerning as a newspaperman i follow the way people follow sports the new leadership at cnn has made clear they want to be more centrist and not way on the left with msnbc this was a big setback for that and is frankly as long as they have done lemon that will continue to be the case the new leadership wants to be centrist they have their work cut out for them. gerry: thanks to everyone in their prime, kellyanne conwa >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etfs.

♪ jack otter: welcome to "barron's roundtable," where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. coming up, the war in ukraine is entering its second the year. what comes next and could putin the overthrown? i am asking retired admiral michael rogers. more economists talk about a no landing scenario for the economy, could fed rate hikes go too far? we begin with three things investors out to be thinking about, stocks tumbled after harder than expected inflation data and a dire warning from morgan stanley. existing home sales continue to fall but new-home sales are surging, mortgage rates near highs, what the outlook for housing? if you missed on the bond rally, now you can have a second chance to jump in. andrew bary, carleton english and jack hough.

been takes off to go skiing leaving you to claim the worst we can the market. jack hough: third straight week of declines for stocks, the losses were concentrated at the beginning and end of a 4-day week. the s&p fell 2%. we got economic warnings from home depot and walmart and a report from morgan stanley that us stocks have entered the death zone. that doesn't sound good. one of my least favorite zones. i spoke with mike wilson, the chief investment officer of morgan stanley, that is a mountain metaphor. stock prices look too high relative to the yields on bonds. he doesn't think bond yields will come down anytime soon and earnings estimates are too high. put it together, us stocks could fall 25% in the first half of this year before rebounding later in the year. on friday, the personal

consumption expenditures price . death zone consumers were stuck in this sticky inflation district. that's not a mountaineering term. jack otter: you could find a bear that says death zone type things. what does an investor do? jack hough: stick with healthcare and stables, there's a fresh money purchase list on the short side but some names include coca-cola and verizon. i spoke with alistair pindar, he says dividend stocks look like something, moderate dividend yields, plenty of potential for payment growth and combine that with some

quality measures, names that include amgen, paying 3.6% and broad, 3.2%. jack otter: there's a silver lining in higher rates which means savings accounts are raising more than they did in 15 years. carleton: ibmer when savings accounts got 5%, we are seeing it in 6-month treasuries which could be a good bet for oriented investors. one thing to keep in mind, that's more of a cash management tool that comes with investment risks. may want to look for other options for cashing in on this phenomenon. jack otter: if you think a recession is coming, you might want to 10 year bond. you've locked in higher bond. carleton: it's not just where you think the market is going but time horizon is part of the calculus, and it is very good

as a cash management tool. one key, pay attention to credit quality. it can be enticing to get in on these products but they come with credit default risks. jack: you want to get an extra percentage in return for a tiny bit of risk but high-grade corporates. carleton: you want to look at the corporate bonds, the duration of 2. 9 years, looking at bonds like bank of america, apple, some pretty solid -- you have heard of them. they will not go bust anytime soon. jack otter: the third side of these high rates are the housing markets, lots of crosscurrents. is my house going to go up in value or down in value?

andrew: home sales are down 12 months in a row and down 30% year over year. home prices holding up relatively well, 5% from the peak last year but the market is holding up better than many people thought given mortgage rates have almost doubled. jack otter: they are down 5%. andrew: one thing is low inventories, whether it is areas like sarasota, florida and the suburb, hard to find homes in these areas. jack otter: someone locked in the mortgage rate, they don't want to go anywhere. andrew: they don't want to 6% loan. keeping inventories low, keeping prices relatively high. jack otter: this marks the 1-year anniversary of russia's

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yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones jack otter: the war ukraine entering its second year and president putin is continuing to fight, but with billions more us support the ukraine and strengthening ties between russia and china, where is the war headed and how long will it last? joining me is the head of us cybercommand, retired admiral michael rogers. thanks for coming on the show, appreciate it. can you handicap, put odds on the ability of russian forces to take new territory? it is looking like world war i in the trenches. what do you see? how do you handicap it?

>> we are all just guessing based on history. experience leads me to believe the most likely scenario, we will not see a significant change until early summer at the earliest. that leads me to say that, we are in the winter, we will be progressing into the spring, which makes ground movement difficult. ukraine needs to assimilate the new weapons, tanks, armored personnel carriers, drones being provided by the west. they will need a few months to assimilate that and prepare for something in late spring or early summer. from a russian perspective, i think they have shown even though they continue to use the winter to move more westward deeper into ukraine, they are unable to effectively gain significant territory and i don't see that changing in the

coming months. jack otter: is there a particular factor you will be looking at in early summer? what do you think of the dynamic work, china might be assisting russia and what about these new weapons? the west is really giving ukraine our best stuff. >> what we will be looking good for is to see how these new weapons and capabilities the west is providing ukraine, actually employed in the battlefield, and do they generate further success for ukraine? we will have to wait and see. where we are now as you said in the opening, neither side has enough strength to deliver a knockout blow. jack otter: telling about the tension between the wagoner group and leaders in russia. how does that dynamic play out? could threaten the putin machine?

>> i don't see it as threatening to the putin machine. it is a large mercenary private military russia has turned to to augment their own capacity. the russian government asked them to become a fighting almond on the battlefield in ukraine for russia. the group complaining we are fighting for you but you are not giving us enough weapons or providing enough support. we have to see how that plays out. they are among the more effective efforts in the russian efforts in ukraine. jack otter: anything that could threaten putin? there are whispers among the russian elite, trying to replace him, or we would never hear from those people again. do you hear anything that could help us understand that? >> it is possible, but what i would remind people, putin has either assassinated, expelled, or imprisoned any real domestic political opposition, that means if he's going to be removed it is likely to come from one of the 3 primary power

centers in the russian structure, security services, military or oligarchs with oligarchs turning to the military. while that is possible, i haven't seen anything yet that leads me to characterize it as likely and i remind people if putin were to be removed by one of those groups, the most likely scenario is whoever comes in behind him, not as extreme as putin would not be a jeffersonian democracy advocate. i don't see russia significantly changing its position. even with a new leader coming in. we would have to see based on specifics. jack otter: you were on the show ten months ago, predictions of a massive russian hacking attack hadn't yet come to pass. what do you see on that now? you did raise the issue of western infrastructure being threatened.

have you seen anything in that regard? >> we've seen more wish -- nothing significant to date. a year into this conflict, ukraine has shown an amazing level of cyberresilience, the russians doing significant cyber activity against ukrainian networks and infrastructure and ukraine has been effective in stopping it. one thing that has led to a less broader use, at least a year into this conflict, it appears the united states, the west, russia, have come to the conclusion it's not in their best interests to broaden this conflict, in other domains like space or cyber. we have to see how long that self-restraint continues.

jack otter: one last question about self-restraint. the doomsday clock is 90 minutes to midnight. the argument you use, neither the us nor russia would see a benefit to using nuclear weapons but can't rule them out, what do you think? >> i think that's fair. i don't think the intent is there right now. you can't rule it out. what i suspect would trigger like that on the part of the russians as if they felt they had no other alternatives, if they were concerned about putin being removed or losing power or they had no other objective though it would be such a stupid move on their part. the response from the rest of the world if the russians think they are isolated and a pariah now, they haven't seen anything yet, what would happen if they decided to use nuclear weapons. jack otter: let's hope they recognize that. talk of an economic soft

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s jack otter: economists have been predicting a recession this year but the economy was more resilient than expected. what the fed keeps hiking, is a downturn inevitable? it is the cover story in this week's barron. good to see you again, megan. first the good news. the bond market and most economists predicted a recession but the economy has proven stronger than feared. >> we've been talking imminent recession for a year but we are far from it. the simple answer is the pandemic changed the structure of the economy but there are all sorts of things that away. think about debt dynamics.

years of low interest rates, huge amounts to shift from adjustable-rate loans that were much more vulnerable to the fed's tightening to fixed rate low interest loans. mortgages, 40% of mortgages were adjustable-rate before the financial crisis, now only 10% are. the vast majority are locked in superlow interest rates. many households are shielded from the impact of tightening away they weren't before. stimulus is going out, $5 trillion in stimulus from congress since 2020. the impact are lasting longer than we expected and infrastructure dollars are still starting to flow out. is having an impact in the construction sector, another area that used to be vulnerable to tighter interest rates but federal money coming in, we are not seeing layoffs the way we otherwise would have.

jack otter: a lot of reasons not to be worried, but historically the fed never pulls it off, they always raise rates until we have a recession. there is this no landing talk, that would mean not only do we not have a recession or even a slow down, we power right through. >> i will switch from optima stick to pessimistic real fast. it means a delayed landing, the fed's work isn't done yet. inflation to me is above 2% and the federal reserve isn't going to stop until they know that they see the inflation is falling down to the 2% target. no landing means we are not at the end of the cycle and we will see more action. carleton: how high are they going to raise rates? >> we've seen a lot of readjusting, after positive strong economic data. people are starting to think we have to go higher.

consensus is holding the peak rate is 5%, it has to get a lot higher than that as high as 6%. that is what i hear, if you think about it, we have a strong labor market as jobs data showed us, strong spending and saving data, red-hot inflation data moving sideways and starting to re-accelerate. it's not what the fed wants to see. jack hough: what should we focus on? >> we are protecting growth in the short-term but higher cost, you want to look for companies that have the power to pass on those higher costs. honeywell international, delta airlines, longer term, we think the slowdown is coming, it time to shift to growth stocks but you want to look at companies in the capital markets for funding, think about mastercard and places like that.

andrew: in the biden administration, who is your choice to replace her on the fed? >> president biden is looking for someone to hit the mold. very policy oriented, strong communicator left of center. this person is approved by congress, if they are too far left of center, they might have a hard time doing that. makes me think of san francisco president mary daly, very policy oriented, close to powell as well, she would be a good fit. a lot of commentary focused on a harvard economist, chief economist of the treasury department, looks like the front runner. jack otter: thanks for keeping track of everything washington dc related and you guys have some great people remember ads with a catchy song.

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beyond ordinary etfs. visit foxbusiness.com/"barron's roundtable". jack otter: facebook has created a vast platform with more members than any nation on earth and i have to pay them if i want to reduce the odds. >> meta is testing a subscription service called meta verify, for users of the smart phone apps, hang onto your seats. account monitoring, help when you need it and verify badge. i'm not sure that's a badge of honor, basically you are saying to friends and relatives, i am paying $15 a month. facebook has billions of users,

if they can get 0.4%, it seems feasible. 0. 2% of them put their pants on backwards, another 0.1% have their tongues stuck to frozen flagpoles, if meta can convert those past one person they are making armpit noises. jack otter: they charge a small amount for subscription, get rid of the ads. jack hough: they could go that way. carleton: i'm looking at the beverage wars. look at dr pepper, just posted earnings, pretty strong growth. what was better-than-expected his coffee business, people thought there would be a slow down because people are not buying as many, they are

commuting, but results are better-than-expected and the dr pepper has a growing partnership with energy drinks. our lot of people drink coffee. jack otter: you have a company you have heard of. andrew: alphabet, the parent of google, one of the worst performers, the issue, the chat gtp, it is a manageable issue. it is low, a billion in cash and the company got fat and complacent. jack otter: whatever chat gpt says, check out this week's addition, barron.com the following program is sponsored by the international fellowship of christians and jews.