on the periodic table? now governor of alaska will make the first guess. maybe he knows the answer. what is your guess, gov. >> feel like it is jeopardy i will say 118. stuart: ashley, what have you got. >> oh, wow, i go with 105, number two. stuart: actually i would go with 124 the largest number. so what's the answer? oh. the governor of alaska, what a guy, walks away from the set he is a winner. a winner. >> great to be here, stuart. great to win one. >> thanks for being with us. appreciate it. absolutely. do send in "friday feedback," special version of the "the big money show." send it in please. my time is up. "coast to coast" starts right now. neil: fox on top of rates looking toppy yet again. for the second straight day the 10-year treasury is trading north of 4%. we're back to levels we haven't seen since last fall.

the two-year note, forget about it, back to yields we haven't seen in more than a decade. that is your borrowing costs going up and the government's borrowing costs going up to and with a debt more than 31 trillion, that bill is kind of on us too. average folks, average investors are not happy. so is my next guest, senator joe manchin taking on his colleagues, his own president to say enough is enough. welcome, everybody, glad to have you. i'm neil cavuto. to debt they say do us part. the thing with a lot of us this debt does not part. with the rates climbing, that debt standing to get worse even if congress avoid as default, ratchets up the national credit line to keep up with the borrowing and spending. senator joe manchin joins us, just got off the senate floor saying we are not going to default. senator, good to see you. you don't think that is going to happen. >> good to be with you, neil. neil: same here.

>> that won't happen. we'll come to the our senses to pay debt for sins in the path. to say we won't discuss it is not rational. how we accumulate so much debt within 10 years, faster than anytime in history of our country, how much debt we accumulated. debt to gdp is greater than after world war ii. we saved from fascism, we won the world war if you will, we liberated europe, we did all of the things you say that debt was well-invested if you will. it is hard to say that today. that is the concern we have. we have got to get this under control. neil: well it is not under control to your point. now republicans wanted to tie spending concessions with any negotiations raising that debt limit. are you in agreement? >> i'm not in agreement with basically holding the ceiling, debt ceils, paying our debts of the past hostage. that accomplishes anything. can't we at least have a piece of legislation that we agree on, that we're going to sit down in

a bistart pawn, bicameral way. find out how we accumulated so much debt? think about this 2013 we had $3.3 trillion of spending on an annual basis. now we're at 6.2, 80% increase. how did it happen? both in discretionary non-discretionary, can we look how we accumulated, because of covid and both democrats, republican administrations accumulated a lot of debt because of covid. now covid is over. can we go back to normal? can we have reductions here? don't we have any savings. you don't have to scare bejesus out of people. somebody wants to cut social security, medicare. we've taken that off the table. what we can do is look efficiencies we should have and how we accumulated so much debt. neil: didn't we do it a report of spending. a lot of critics your support for the president's two trillion dollar infrastructure plan. that added to the agony. you say? >> the

bill we all did. i think you will see a awful lot of money invested back, a lot basically energy economy that will be generated from that. they say that the inflation, the inflation reduction act, neil, that whole thing was energy security. we have got more investments coming to the united states. if that was such a bad deal why are so many european countries coming, so many people and european government so upset and concerned about losing investments in their country because it is more attractive in america? we're doing things basically stimulating economy, should bring more money to it. just spending, sending checks out spending money for the sake ever spending it proven to be lethal to us now. neil: the president indicated yesterday, senator, quoting, i want to be clear, i'm going to raise some taxes. he didn't outline what taxes he is going to raise. you limited those he wanted to increase a couple years ago. where are you on that, what do you think he is talking about? >> i don't know. i will probably hear something

today hopefully what direction they want to go but i can assure you can't basically just tax your way out of debt. you can't borrow your way out of debt and you can't cut your way out of debt. you can do combination of all of those to certain extent to manage your debt. we're not managing debt. there is not a person watching, listening right now doesn't manage their financial situation and be successful there is not a family sitting down that doesn't sit down. we had record spending 21 years in a row, more than what we've taken in. when you have running a deficit 21 years in a row, nothing has happened, we accumulated debt and we're looking at now, 2050 is used as benchmark. 2050 is benchmark on many things people are striving to. if we go down the debt we have right now, the way we accumulated it by 2050 we'll have, $130 trillion of public debt. we'll be spending five trillion dollars a year just interest on

that. that's not, no way you can survive. neil: entitlement programs, you said social security, medicare not on the table. republicans said this year not on the table. should they be on the table in future years? should we start looking -- >> you need to, west virginia 60% of our people are on social security and medicare. for them to be thinking you're not going to touch it. we're not going to touch it. we make sure they get it. we need to make sure 10 years from now they still have the money coming in and the medicare protection they're getting right now from their health care. if we do nothing just sit back with our hands in our pockets we won't get involved, they will have automatic cuts. we can't let that happen. neil: where would you say, we have to look extending age, raising taxes or those 50 and over shouldn't have to worry about this, where are you on the age of people who might have to say all right, we'll push this back a little bit? >> i think is there a better program, is there a better ways younger people can invest to

have something for retirement? i don't know. if you can't even sit down and talk with experts and talk with people that have, know wherewithals to say you're not even going to discuss anything, only thing i'm telling you i'm not going to discuss is cutting social security and medicare for those people that are receiving, depending on it, worked hard and earned it. with that you have to look at everything. how do you sustain what you have? that is just normal. that is normal discussions people have, dining room table or kitchen table or every day. neil: right. we still don't know officially what the president's plans are for re-election. looks like he will run again. his wife seems to be saying that. they might not be on the same page because the president has not been unequivocal, if he were to run again would you support him? >> let's see who is in the game. i will not say i will support, not support anybody. i want to find the best pathway for america. we got to get out of toxic rips

we have in the political process. neil: he is a democrat, you're a democrat. you wouldn't allally support the president for re-election. >> hold on. he is our president. when donald trump is our president, you better pray and support your president every day, if they do well the country does well. whether i'm going to support individual whether democrat or republican that is not what is up for grabs for now. not what i'm signing up. neil: if it were donald trump as republican nominee, against joe biden who would you support? >> i will look at -- i'm going, i'm going to find a pathway that basically brings america together, who can do that the best, who has the best plan for future of america. because i'm concerned right now as a lot of americans. things are not going the way they should go. they haven't been doing that for a long time. blame either party. maybe not working on either party. i'm looking for a pathway forward to make america together, united and stronger. neil: are you running for re-election in west virginia, senator? >> neil, i say again.

i'm looking for that pathway that will unite us, basically going to get america stronger and keep us a country and have been. neil: i understand. are you running for re-election as senator? >> i am going to do whatever i have can to help my country be better than what it is today. neil: are you troubled by polls that show you right now at least trailing your governor jim justice by at least 20 points? would that influence your decision, if we were in fact the nominee to take you on? >> no i never made a decision based on that. if i decide, i'm going to be involved. if i decide to run and whatever, i'm going to be involved.o win. so i'm r west virginians look at me not as democrat or republican. look as someon i done that all my life. been up front, transparent. so i think i feel very good about the election, whatever decision we make here but i'm going to make sure my country

and my state has the ability to function normally and not in a dysfunctioned way. not being torn apart by the toxic political atmosphere we have. neil: would you run, sir as a democrat or a republican? some have said you're considering becoming a republican or maybe an independent? >> neil, i'm going to do whatever i can. that is plenty of time between now and then to do whatever i can to help my country get our financial house back in order. neil: you're not ruling it out? you're not ruling it out when you said you wouldn't necessarily support the president simply because he was a democrat, you would choose the man or woman to decide -- >> i will support the best path for the country and how we make our country better and stronger and more united and right now i don't think anybody can say we're together and united. it basically the political parties are tearing us apart. we've got to come together f one party can do that better than the other party, so be it. let's wait and see. right now both are not doing a

very good job of that. neil: so you're open to the possibility of switching parties? >> [laughter]. oh, neil. neil: just had to throw that out there one more time to catch you unaware. let me step back, senator, get a sense of landscape, you and senator jon tester of montana taken president on with esg, political collect woke investing. you don't like it. that is likely, the votes are there to go ahead and overturn it, the president will veto it. remember the democrats who didn't support him. he will remember you and senator tester. what do you say? >> i don't know. i mean my made my decision easily made my decision that i don't believe under erisa, which is blanket how you will look at everything from your 401(k)s or any of your pension plans it should be mandatory thing they should be able to do. in the private market, let the private market do what it is going to do.

if somebody wants to invest their money, only have the retirement plan invest in certain accounts that might be environmental, more fossil, whatever they may, they can find people who win invest what they want. that is fine. let the market continue to make those decisions. neil: there should not be a political litmus test totterries is a, employee retirement income security act? >> that should not be a part. if that is the determination, the geopolitical risk you're taking when you make these decisions to make sure the programs stay solvent should be considered too? if you're not sure, look what happened at the eu ask germany how well it worked for them? neil: let me ask you, governor mike dewine was speaking earlier this morning on this network, sir, talking about maybe it's time the president really visit east palestine. talking about it, ace agencies dealing with it isn't enough. do you agree with that? >> i can only speak for myself when i was governor i knew i had to be there.

i knew that gave confidence to the citizens of my state if i was there. i know being president, 50 states, when you have a tragedy such as this, that is 20 miles from the border of west virginia. i spoke to all of their different water departments because some of that had leaked into the ohio river. we're watching that plume as it was floating by. they took alternative action to make sure wouldn't ingest any of that in the water filtration plants. we are all concerned to that extent. everybody has a different style. i personally if any way humanly possible be there immediately the same day or day after if anything happened in my state. that is my style i thought would be effective. it is important for leaders to be there, yeah. neil: finally, sir, obviously west virginia is coal producing state, traditional energy producing state. you wanted to protect that in some of these things you signed on to, there is move from many states, new jersey, to go all ev within the next decade or so.

>> big mistake. big mistake. neil: explain why. >> the mistake first of all we don't have a supply chain we can rely on it is all from germany, russia -- china. china, ev batteries whatever they want to do. until we get our battery manufacturing up and running, until we get our sourcing for critical minerals basically be from north america, united states, canada and mexico or from a country that we have a free-trade agreement or our allies overseas people we can depend on it won't hold us hostage to make us almost impossible to have a guaranteed supply chain it is crazy to go down that. that is why i did the ira, inflation reduction act to make sure we developed a energy policy here that was basically all inclusive, basically made us energy secure but especially our transportation mode. it is never in the history been dependent on any other country to supply anything that we needed, for automobiles trains,

planes. never happened. neil: senator, finally i lied before when i said that was the last question, i'm curious what you make of the push to get more funding to help taiwan with weapons, the rest, $269 million. we're sending upwards of 200 troops there. china is getting very provocative in its response to all these developments. do you think we could go to war? >> that is always a possibility with the uncertainty and gee low political unrest, we have to be careful what we're doing and how we're doing it send right signals. the only way to have peace is peace through strength. if you think in ukraine there will be peaceful negotiations it will be only be because of the strength we've supplied and backing that we have given ukraine for anything to happen that would be a total type of a treaty if you will. but not unless you have that strength. speaking of china, will back down and not keep threatening taiwan will only be through

strength. on that i do support our allies and basically people that have the same values that we have against those countries that don't. when you look at china, you look at russia, you look at iran, you look at north korea, they don't have our values and they're not going to be well-intended when they go into these areas, whatever they're intending to do. yes. if you're a superpower of the world, you're defending democracies and freedom that comes with a democracy, then we are that leader. we've got to be out front. neil: senator, always good catching up with you. thank you very, very much. west virginia senator -- >> appreciate it. neil: joe manchin. we have the dow up 80 points right now. more on that china issue that has gotten a big issue on capitol hill today with the move afoot to ban tiktok out right on this country. can't have it on your phone, can't have it anywhere after this. ♪.

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♪. neil: as we just discussed with senator joe manchin the u.s. is set now to provide $619 million worth of military aid, arms sales to taiwan and china is sending a let of warplanes, a lot of ships, near, right toward the island. where is this going? let's go to christian whiton,

former state department official. this is now officially getting a little anxious. how do you see it, christian? >> it is. the chinese always make a big deal but important to keep this in perspective. $619 million, not billion, that the taiwanese have spent. this is important. this is not a giveaway. this is the stuff taiwanese have purchased. we actually have a 19 billion-dollar backlog of stuff has been approved for taiwan, that taiwan has bought hasn't been delivered. representative mike gallagher, the head of the new china committee was in taiwan drawing attention to this. nice we're providing air-to-air missiles and armed package can go on f-16s the taiwanese previously bought which are old incidentally, that we're plussing up taiwan, deterring china in the specific, just not true. neil: christian, is it f-16 or f-16 munitions? when i heard that, i thought that is not what we're not at least at this point providing

ukraine? >> well that's right. we are not providing ukraine with f-16s. that is considered sort of a big step. the taiwanese are in a different place with the f-16. they have a older version of the f-16 for decades. the previous administration approved sale of newer f-16s, retrofit of existing f-16s. those f-16s might not last more than a now hours into conflict with china. recent u.s. moves, focused on weapons like mines, lower tech, mobile, stealthier, that might evade chinese offensive weapons. neil: christian, we worry about are we going to actual military war with china, number of people on the show, gordon chang, china expert that could be a direction we're going, are we getting potentially deeper into an economic one? >> definitely. with kinetic war why would china go to that? you never know how dictators are thinking. i don't believe our

80 billion-dollar a intelligence bureaucracy knows what xi xinping is thinking. it is doing pretty well without the kinetic war and influence operation. economically, president trump slapped tariffs on about half of what we import from china but, if you look at the balance of trade, amount we import at the sensitive nature of what we're importing, not just junk. it is stuff like pharmaceutical ingredients. the fact we're reliant on china still three years after covid, it is not a great position. it will cause some pain if we do want to strategically decouple as bob lighthizer, form u.s. trade representative called for. neil: thank you, christian whiton, formerly with the state department. i want to issue, even more so, south dakota cub republican congressman does at this johnson. always great to see you. you're concerned about other areas in which encroaching power of chinese is really stupifying

here, particularly scooping up all this land all over the place. what are they up to? >> well, when we had our select committee on china hearing the other night, the witnesses, whether they were democrat witnesses or republican witnesses, they warned our panel that we should not let china get what they called coerce -- coercive power over any part of our economy, particularly important parts of our economies. i don't know what is more critical than food. not just in this country we need to worry about it. they are also gobbling up a lot of farmland in south america, southeast asia, africa. we have to figure out what the motivation is, what problems that causes for america. neil: a lot of people have been looking at there, how did they even get the approval to do so in the first place? >> yeah. i brought forth legislation that would put the secretary of agriculture on cfius. cfius is the kind of obscure board that is supposed to approve foreign investment in

this country. they wouldn't generally look at something like the purchase of an individual piece of farmland. that is why i think my bill, the pass act, would blacklist the chinese communist party from buying farmland or ag processing in this country is so important to get done. neil: so you know, we worry about all this farmland that they own, other land that they own. worst-case scenario, part of the people who dismiss this congressman, not see we let them use the land if it ever came to that saying it is not a big deal. what do you say to that? >> i suppose that's true if we were in a kinetic war, yes, when you're in a shooting war with somebody, you have a tendency to reduce their ability to use their land within your own country but there's a long ways between where we're at and a kinetic war. we're in in a serious economic competition with china. we're giving them tools for them to build their military. their ney navy is already larger than ours. their capabilities in

hypersonics, energics are already bigger than ours. there can be competitions that don't involve shooting war. in those competitions you jent generally seize other people's property, at least not in a free country. neil: when it came to china doing what it hinted at, not solely and invade the taiwan is that an act of war to you, congressman? >> i know that we're supposed to keep up some sort of a face of strategic ambiguity but for me an invasion of taiwan would clearly be an act of aggression by the chinese communist party that would necessitate serious, profound action on behalf of our country. we can't abandon allies like taiwan and we can't let bullies like the ccp or vladmir putin for that matter take what they want because they're willing to go further than freedom-loving countries than america are. it is time for america to wake up. we have got to quit sleep walking through the patterns of

aggression we let the ccp engage in a long time. i don't want a war with china. i don't want a cold war with china. just being nice to them will not work on its own. neil: got it. congressman, thank you very much. ccp referring to the chinese communist party. good having you again, be well. meantime looking at tesla. it is having a tough couple of days actually. that master plan seems to be going like a master not so great plan. ♪. if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can see if it may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee, even if it received ppp, and all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then we'll work with you to fill out your forms and submit the application; that easy. and if your business doesn't get paid, we don't get paid.

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♪ neil: the master plan not doing what he thought it would with in as you tin the stock down

another 6% today. what to make of that luke lloyd, strategic wealth partners. >> neil. >> this stock was hammered last year. run up 40% this year before the ground giving back. what happened? >> so i think a lot of investors wanted some sort of a crazy innovation or crazy surprise for the future generation of cars coming out of yesterday's investor day and they didn't get that but i think the negative negative reaction to yesterday is kind of unprecedented. investor day is called investor day. elon musk is doing what every smart ceo is doing talking about driving operational efficiencies to drive down production costs, ultimately increasing profitability. that should be music to investors ears. to hit the target of 20 million cars by 2030, reducing costs down the road they need to invest heavily now. i think that is one of the problems, that investor had in tesla yesterday, still investing

aggressively next few years while many companies are cutting back investing. tesla is investing heavily in the new mexico plant, to drive down costs. elon musk is a risk-taker. paid off so far, but built companies like tesla in low rate environment. these up-front costs, investments will pay off big in the long term or will hurt them depending how demand falls in 2023, 2024 with a pending recession. good news elon musk can raise as much capital he wants because ho he is, even if things go south tesla has a lot of support. neil: is his stock back to where makes hip the richest man so he is doing something right. all the issues i was raising with senator joe manchin before are we getting ahead of our ev skis here? this notion we'll be all evs in another decade or so? that might happen but i just don't see it and i see americans rebelling at the price, all the

other things that could bump along the way. your thoughts? >> i think it is some fairytale right now. i don't think it will happen in the way everyone is pushing evs, the climate change agenda son to us. at the end of the day a lot of electric vehicle companies outside of big ones like tesla or even fords or gms of the world, a lot of the smaller ev companies will not be around. i think a lot of them will go prom especially in the higher rate environment here to stay. evs are part of the tech sector. i think investor are attracted to treasury yields from now. they will probably go even higher from here which makes the cost of capital go up. that is not good for the e-investment sector or innovation in general. capitalism is not. neil: i jumped on that, i'm i'm v. rude to even people i admire like you. 10-year at 4%, seems to find a new nesting place there. two year close to 20 year highs. >> yeah.

neil: we're in a new leg i guess of this run-up in rates, maybe not but what do you make of what the bond market is telling us? >> so there is two things mainly happening. i don't think the equity markets are pricing in what could be coming here. number one the federal reserve is no longer buying bonds like crazy which pushed down yields a long time. when they off load the balance sheet that pushes yields to go higher. number two, countries are not buying u.s. treasurys. there is a big currency risk for other countries as strong u.s. dollar made it much more expensive to own u.s. treasurys. other countries are no incentivized to u.s. debt that puts pressure on bond yields to go higher. the interesting thing yields should be higher than they are right now with the fed funds rate heading north of 5 1/2%. since they aren't higher that tells me the markets think the federal reserve will pivot and lower rates very soon. i think that's a huge misconception investors have. we all know if rates continue higher that is not good for the

equity markets. neil: i don't know whether they pivot. are you saying they counting on or disappointed they don't see that happening? >> that is what the equity markets or what bond market is telling us, what the equity markets are counting on. since the bond market pricing, the equity markets are not pricing in they stay higher for longer. that is risk, equity risk premium to the equity markets could be a headwind going forward. i think it will happen, rates stay higher. neil: i should thank you. great job as always, luke. i always appreciate getting ideas from you young investors. >> thanks, neil. neil: i have ties older than luke. anyway, the way we go. i have a lot of ties older than edward lawrence. i love throwing to edward lawrence when he is in washington, when he is so plugged in. he is here, he is in the house. get ready, okay, edward after this. ♪.

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steppe gold. ♪. neil: the president indicated yesterday, senator, quoting here, i want to be clear, i'm going to raise some taxes. he didn't outline what taxes he is going to raise. you limited those he wanted to go increase a couple years ago. where are you on that, what do you think he is talking about? >> i don't know. i will probably hear something today hopefully what direction they want to go. i assure you can't basically tax your way out of debt. you can't borrow your way out of debt. you can't cut your way out of debt. you can do a combination of all of those to a certain extent to manage your debt. we're not managing debt. neil: probably the understatement of the century. we're not managing direct out of control. we're right up against our credit limit, if you will. they hope to avoid a default which would be reneging on

obligations. they think they can avoid that they always have. edward lawrence whether this will happen this go-round in the flesh. >> we have dire warnings now from the cbo director as well-fed ral reserve chairman saying we are on unsustainable path going forward. committee for responsible budget say the interest payments on the debt will be single fastest growing expense over the next 10 years but here is the president from last night. president biden: clear about one thing, there is no actual crisis here. this is entirely a crisis of their making if it occurs. democrats believe in paying americas bills. >> reporter: president saying he will not be lectured by republicans about debt when he said the previous administration added to the national debt. what the president fails to point out most spending one time because of covid-19 pandemic and shutting down economy. same day as president brushed off the debt crisis the cbo director briefed a group of republicans in the house telling

them this could be a crisis. this is what the director said to you last month, neil. listen. >> inherited a very difficult situation a very large deficit that is set to persist. at the same time the economy in first half of this year is spacing a weakening economy with high inflation. the fiscal situation is very challenging. >> reporter: so far the president, house speaker kevin mccarthy are not negotiating together over the debt ceiling. both are making the case to the american people saying that the other should bent. neil: but they don't. they always carry this to the brink. >> reporter: right. neil: you and i remember 2011 they avoided default but didn't avoid s&p downgrading debt. could something like that happen with all the craziness? >> you heard both sides say we don't want to come to this point. seems like it won't reach that point. the bigger battle might be end of year, the budget, federal budget, there could be a government shut down there. i talk to company leaders,

ceos, mr. thanking for 2 1/2 months of a shutdown by the end of the year over this. neil: your father was a top economist in have rate of administrations. >> reporter: yeah. my grandfather was a big influence on us. my mom got straight as. i did not get straight as. neil: the by behind you move your shoulder. >> reporter: my grandfather worked for presidents trauma through ford. neil: i covered president trump, you know. before that president lincoln. good to see you, edward lawrence so well-connected, very good guy. talking about very well-connected, very good person, taylor riggs coming up own the big money show. what have you got. taylor: no straight as here. talk about the debt crisis, the fentanyl crisis as well. russell frye, house judiciary committee, oversight accountability committee set to join us at the top of the hour.

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♪. >> five, four, three, two, one,

engines full power and liftoff, go dragon, go falcon. neil: all right, delayed but not denied. another spacex mission, launching american, russian, from united arab emirates to the international space station. what is, we have jim bridenstein, former nasa administrator. good to see you. we have a busy launching schedule here, right? >> it really is. nasa is doing a lot of important work maintaining the international space station, doing all that great research that will be transformational for the american economy going forward. neil: jim, what happens, i know the russians are talking about we're going to ditch this, we'll not be into that much longer, where does that stand, how does it affect us and our own plans? >> so, what we need to be doing as a country is building the replacement for the

international space station, regardless whether or not russia stays with us, or abandon the space station, we need to have our own space stations to replace the iss no matter what. the iss will end in 2030. in fact nasa has announced they will put it into the ocean in 2031. what does that mean? that means we as a country need to start helping realize commercial human habitation in low earth orbit to do all of those great things that we get from microgravity. microgravity is the value of human spaceflight in general and without the iss we're going to be, we're going to be ceding a lot of economic value, quite frankly to the chinese, who just built a brand new space station. neil: right. >> they're now adding to their brand new space station and they're attractioning international partners, which by the way international partners are countries we help developed

their space capability and now they're partnering with china. we need to advance commercial happentation to maintain our pre preeminence in space. neil: thank you very much, jim bridenstine former, nasa administrator. this latest mission, a multicountry mission but china doing their own things. we're on top of that, interest rates staying high, over 4%. wonder what the retired american express ceo and chairman thinks of that. he is coming up next. ♪.

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permex petroleum is leading the charge in the prolific permian basin with an attractive portfolio of oil, natural gas, and royalty assets. with expanding drilling operations and plans to uplist to the nyse, permex petroleum is poised for growth. adam: the corner of wall and broad, the 10 year north of 4%, we are back to where we were last fall, two your back to where we were almost two decades ago. the american express ceo and chairman knows his numbers and his financial stuff. always great seeing you. are you worried about this

uptick in rates? all the most the 1-year anniversary of the first great hike when we went from 0 to 100% touching 5%. >> i think the rates are higher and probably going to go higher. inflation is a huge problem. the last tool available, to raise interest rates. the other side is the fiscal side, to reduce spending. that's not going to happen. the rates are high, inflation is going to stay high. the other thing is the reduction in labor costs, a 5%,

the participation rate in the last ten years. and what didn't happen, 5 million people out of the workforce two years ago. gdp is a function of growth and number of people working. gdp is going to be depressed. relatively so, gdp growth. high level of inflation this and stretch balance sheets for the middle class and working people in this country. neil: restaurants are booked solid. people flying everywhere.

it seems to be a disconnect. >> it is partially a disconnect and partially not. they spend money on some things, they are affected less by growth and inflation. if you talk to people in supermarkets, you see a different thing in restaurants and broadway shows. it is a different demographic, people that are being hurt the most, in this country, they are hurt badly. neil: would it make a difference given the political landscape who the next president might be, president biden reelected or any of the growing republican cast.

>> let me be clear, we are not going to deal with the growth of spending until there's a bipartisan consensus, we won't deal with social security, medicare, and medicaid. both political parties say this is a problem we will deal with. we deal with some level of spending at the margin but it won't have a major affect. still $1 trillion deficit even if we have a republican president. what the republican president can do is reduce the awful policies of this administration with regard to energy and regulations. it is amazing to me that we are still able to grow at 2% but this government doing almost everything it can think of to depress economic growth and make things more difficult.

adam: always learn a lot. i wish we had more time but a lot of breaking news including what is happening on the interest rate front about you predicted a lot of this. your the former aig boss as well and again to illustrate what he was just talking about, over 4%, think about what was going on almost a year ago on march 17th, last year we went from essentially 0%, raised short-term rates to 12:45% and hike after hike brought us to 5%. we will see how we deal with of that and absorb that. taylor: i love the bond conversation, the fed started moving, not the level, how quickly we've gotten to that 4% level. brian: of interest rates weren't so high neil w