tv Cavuto Coast to Coast FOX Business March 15, 2023 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
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there is riot progress in paris. moments ago violence broke out between police and protesters. it is getting ugly. you will see a lot more about this later. the protesters object to the french government trying to raise retirement age from 62 to 64. they don't like it. there is the riot. how many people marched in the new york city st. patrick's day parade. there is the choices on screen. guess, lauren. >> 50. stuart: tepper. >> 150,000. stuart: depends on the day and weather. reveal please, the answer is 150,000. the first parade, march 17th, 1762, four years before the declaration of independence. i don't think they got 150,000 back then. time's up for me. "coast to coast" is next. neil: so you don't like this stock selloff.
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credit suisse embattled latest bank whose stock can't seem to find the floor a predictment flooring a lot of other banks as well, small and large and everything in between. credit suisse chairman is saying the right things. he run as very strong bank. one overshoots all regulatory requirements that its liquidity base is fantastic. try telling that to nervous investors and now nervous depositors? we're on top of it with a market bear, peter ilades who argues this will get worse. steve forbes argues why things are alreadious. just out after banking committee, just maybe, maybe, someone in washington help make things better. that is always dangerous. we're on top of it. i'm neil cavuto, glad to have you. go to steve forbes, reading what is now and has been a market rout. with do you think my friend. >> this is classic panic. emotions take over.
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everyone says they're a good long term investor until the market goes down, can i get out? do i have to pull my money out. emotions take over. this is about confidence. this is not the facts in the ground. this is actual confidence? damnation of the leadership. they don't believe that things are not that bad, u.s. banking system, not european, u.s. banking system is never stronger with balance sheet and la kid h liquidity, they learned a lot from 2008, 2009. the panic is out there. i would think smart investors, with a strong stomach this is buying opportunity. trying to grab a falling knife and all thing -- neil: never time it perfectly. we learned from other meltdowns it is darkest before the dawn. i came up with that myself. >> great phrase. make a note of that. neil: one thing, i think what added to this was the comments out of larry fink at blackstone
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saying the dome knows from easy money are starting to fall. this is a slow rolling crisis. in other words he is saying it will get worse. >> well, this is what happens. you get to the federal reserve, central banks, finance ministries going years and years for no interest rates. money is free. companies take it on. they have losses but so what they can always get more. countries they will see crises there. they borrowed a lot. japan has a debt twice our own proportionnally. not so up dominoes. people went out and thought short rates were forever will get caught. that doesn't mean the whole economy comes down. it means a lot of companies are in trouble. one good thing is that this recession, if it ever comes, theologians proclaim one, companies had a year, year-and-a-half to get ready. it is proclaimed. usually recessions come you don't expect it.
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this time everyone knows something is coming. banks had plenty of time to get balance sheet in shape. neil: some of them didn't. >> some of them didn't. neil: who would have thought holding treasurys would come back to boomerang you, depends when you bought the treasury notes and bonds. turns out certainly in the case of one bank. silicon valley, they were buying them just as the fed was starting its hiking campaign or most of them. and now they're underwater. >> they continued. they violated two rules of central bank, banking 101, if you go to a business class, they tell this on day one assets and liabilities. obviously take deposits you are making loans of the you have to be careful on that, keep a good cashing reserve. they ignored that. when they went out, going out five years, 10 years on government paper, when the fed announced they're raising a rates they didn't hedge, they didn't insurance. neil: they could have a way to prepare for redemptions.
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no one is ready for just a break and everyone leaves through the same door at the same time i get that but do you see potential lehman moment here, steve where others get afflicted by the same thing, through no fault of their own are caught between a rock and a hard place? >> this is where i think, i'm a conservative, but you have to be ready to intervene to make sure the innocent don't get dragged down with the guilty and emotions eventually do come to their senses after a while. they realize the world is not coming to an end. no meteors are coming. this gets to the fdic there needs to be an investigation there. they grossly mishandled this investigation. plenty of vcs, plenty of people with money ready to invest in silicon valley. neil: going way beyond protecting those 250,000, couples with a million. they extended made it limitless. would cost a lot if they did this for every other bank.
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>> if people get confidence the world is not coming to an enyou will not have to go close to that. silicon valley bank, when you liquidate those assets, most will be money good. there will be very little losses but why didn't the fdic cooperate making a sale of this bank or arranging infusion of capital? remember warren buffett saved general electric and a couple of other countries making investment. neil: what if they don't realize fast enough? isn't the argument, steve you have to move fast because heated moments there is no time for -- >> the thing is people do move fast. i know some venture capitalists who got calls over the weekend can we get in on this thing, what's being done? they are willing to move fast. jpmorgan bank was already out in san francisco calling up customers, saying you want to come with us? people move quickly when they see opportunity. not if the first time we had a banking panic, people with forced marriages, i remember during the last meltdown, steve, when you know, bank of the america had no choice. you got to buy merrill lynch.
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you have to keep them up. jpmorgan chase, you you got to buy bear stearns. maybe once burned, some banks or other institutions, we don't know yet, were saying you know what i will be more than twice shy? >> i think this is where again, when you have experienced bankers who can quickly size up a situation that wouldn't inhibit them. in terms of they know that the bank had a lot of assets, had a very good loan, book of loans. they provided great service for startups. some of these people have startups. they say that bank service was superb for a startup. banks knew what was there they could quickly make a decision. remember, they will get a bargain. they will buy on the cheap. so you factor in, there was things there we don't know. you factor that in. but you move quickly and the fdic apparently had some banks, they don't like banks getting bigger. when you have a crisis, guess what? that may happen with several
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banks when you bring them together but they saw, fdic needs an investigation. also at some point congress has to ask the federal reserve why did you go for a generation with no interest rates? which is equivalent of rent control. neil: that is the big issue right now whether that is coming back to haunt us. >> absolutely. neil: the fed meets next week. it is kind of damned if it does, damned if it doesn't. if it holds off another rate increase, people say what do they know we don't know or have they lost the inflation fight. others might welcome it, just stop the madness. where are you on this? >> since the federal reserve believes you fight inflation by trashing the economy i would hope they would stop but the key thing how do they explain it? they can point out that there are signs that inflation is beginning to come down. john catsimatidis was on fox earlier today, made the point in terms of producer price index, oil prices low, takes several months, three months, six months before it comes through.
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neil: effect of higher rates were really started a year ago this week now we're finally seeing isn't. >> takes 12 to 18 months. that is already starting. like turning a big freighter, tanker, takes time before the ship moves even though you turned the wheel. neil: got it. steve forbes, on that. go to alan tuckman, bull's-eye chief market strategist. if i could ask you the same question i did steve, if the fed pauses on an interest rate hike next week what would be the fallout from that? >> there is 50-50 chance but i'm looking past that. i'm a trader. i'm looking at the futures markets. you look out here at 2023 short-term rates declining 4% by the end of the year. then we're at 3 1/2% 2024 all the way out to 2030. the markets are telling us our destination is here. we're essentially done. what happens with a quarter point next week or not i don't think is a big deal. talk about the markets not doing.
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we're still at 3900 in the s&p. we've been between 3800, 4200 now for five month. so we're still range-bound. we're getting a pullback, this is not 2008. i cannot say that enough. this is incompetence. i'm not going to say stupid, you shouldn't say stupid about people but this incompetence. the reason these markets exist to hedge price risk f they didn't hedge their risk, if they didn't think interest rates would go from zero to somewhere they shouldn't be in banking. it is that simple. neil: what is weird about it, alan, i remember like i said covering the financial crisis -- >> we were there. neil: there were a lot of weird things going on. people were packaging crappy mortgage derivatives and selling it to unsuspecting investors. >> right. neil: people buying condos, homes sight unseen getting mortgages with very little proof of anyone ability to pay. i don't they any of that going
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on here. the worst synagogue on here an institution behind the eight ball, the wrong selling point where a lot of treasury securities which are generally most conservative investment held to maturity. >> exactly. neil: if anything they were off on timing of that when they had to unload some of that. >> right. neil: that to me does not speak of reckless necessary we saw during the meltdown. your thoughts? >> yeah. i totally agree. they had their duration wrong. they didn't cover the front end. this is also a velocity of money story. things have changed like you were talking with mr. forbes, things have changed dramatically. you know, they took out $42 billion in an hour. that was just a loss of confidence. that is all that was. any other situation they would have been able, money wouldn't come out that fast, people wouldn't be able to communicate as quickly to cause that. it was a loss of confidence more than anything else. yeah, they were stupid by not hedging in the short term. that cost about 25 basis points.
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they didn't want to do that because that would hurt their profitability. that was a choice they made. that was incorrect, stupid for them, stupid for investors. i don't think it reflects on the market at all. you're seeing big, big banks seeing inflows of cash because people are going to the big major fours. since when like you said, since when are treasury bond as toxic assets? the toxic assets of 2008 were a whole different ballgame. neil: you said something very important there, everything you say is important, alan, what is interesting is, through no fault of their own, regional banks, medium-sized banks are seeing money leave them, not in some, among all, to the big banks. i believe $15 billion in depositors money gone to the way of bank of america last week. i'm wondering again, we talk about unintended consequences
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and these moral hazards, are a lot of these medium-sized banks going to suffer that again through nothing they did but this fear they're not safe institutions and people are going to seek safety of big banks that are really deleveraged themselves from the meltdown period, and been able to diversify their portfolios? >> well you've got to remember banking used to be boring. that's the idea. you take in deposits. neil: right. >> you hedge your risk, you get money in run, all right? banks, it's simple, simple business if you do it right. but they're trying to get higher returns. they're into markets they probably shouldn't be involved in. so if they are a simple bank, that's fine but let's remember a lot of these banks are not just taking in deposits from your illinois farmers ace hardware store. they're doing all kinds of things. that puts them at exposure. if they get back to the business
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of banking, yeah, people will understand, appreciate that. they're playing a different game. they're not just being banks. but i want to get back to where we are and put in perspective. it has been one year to the day almost since the fed started raising rates. you know the s&p is off about 10%, but it is 10% off the bottom. let's also talk about the vix here. the vix is at 26 or 27. in 2008 the vix was up near 100. this right now is very isolated event. oil prices are down. inflation is down. unemployment is fantastic. anybody that want as job has a job or two or three if they want them. banks still have record profits, great balance sheets. so i look at more of the positives. this is an isolated situation. people lost confidence. they had the ability to lose confidence because of the speed they can move their money. neil: i think you're right. there are important distincts we should keep in mind. hopefully cooler heads prevail.
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that is not happening. alan knuckman, thank you very much, in and out of session lows down 670 points right now. >> thank you. neil: we've taken everything we gained yesterday an doubled it effectively with still about four hours of trading to go. in meantime we do know that the justice department and the securities & exchange commission are looking into exactly what happened with silicon valley and the bank collapse there. in the meantime a lot of aren't waiting for the results of that investigation but are leaving small and medium-sized banks in general. kelly o'grady following all of those developments out in california. kelly? >> reporter: great to see you, neil. yes i actually just want to give you an update. we are hearing, we spoke about yesterday the fdic is trying to relaunch that auction that failed over the week for silicon valley bank. we hear they tapped piper sandler to relaunch the action. looks like they're going forward with it. for reference piper sandler is
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midlevel investment bank. getting back to the investigation two key themes are emerging. focus on number of management stock trades. ceo greg becker sold 3.6 million in scheduled trade days before the bank's collapse t could be routine but federal authorities are investigating the possibility of wrongdoing. the second thread focuses on mismanagement. all eyes on the svb board. for context the company's board provides oversight n a recent filing svb touted its board risk management practices the risk committee has primary oversight of the risk management across major risk categories, liquidity, credit, market. moreover the risk committee oversees our capital management. that point on liquidity is an important one. svb chose to make risky bond investments which led to the detrimental cash crunch. that is something the board sure been monitoring. svb spent eight months without a risk officer. that begs the question whether
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they were prioritizing risk management. this is key measure for a board with experience in the financial sector. one was former ceo of barclays investment banking. other held executive positions in retail investmenting. this investigation will a look into the board paid up to $100,000 were doing their job. i find curious, neil a number about board members were high-profile venture capitalists. remember the vc community sounded the alarm that started the bank run. you have to ask yourself how did the board not see this? send it back to you. neil: what did they know, exactly when did they know it. kelly o'grady thank you very much. don't say peter eelide is sniffing out market come weeks ago how bad does the bull market get as you see it right now. >> you don't want to hear that neil. neil: sure i do. >> okay. would i be very surprised if we
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don't get back down to the lows, not the lows of 2020 where we had the huge decline in very short period of time, but i would be surprised if we don't go back ultimately, this will not happen in a few weeks, bang to at least the lows of 2009 again. neil: 2009? >> yeah. neil: that -- >> i like the way you said that. neil: that was back on february 9th. i misstated the time he was last with us. he is back with us, peter eliades, stock market cycles editor and publisher. you sniffed out something then, are you still sniffing the same thing now? >> yes i'm still sniffing the same thing, neil. things are so interesting now, aren't they? usually the technicals lead, the market leads and then things start to happen fundamentally because everyone's waiting for that big fundamental story to guide us to the next big market
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move. what is the fed going to do? what is happening here? what is happening there? so all of a sudden the market starts to go down in earnest. we get the story about the silicon valley bank. those things happen after the market starts to tell you bad things are going to happen. by the way i heard, neil, i don't know if this is true or not, may be a rumor, the big board meeting at silicon valley bank, the discussion was climate change. pretty appropriate, huh? neil: i know you don't look at too much fundamental developments, you look technical, look at charts, go into the weeds of the market and all. a lot of people looking what is going on for regional banks saying that is a bad harbinger of them. there is a lot of money finds its way to bigger banks. we heard, reports, for example, bank of america got $15 billion in additional deposits, i believer, peter over the last week. that is a fundamental settlement
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based on this fundamental year, i get that. technically, what are you seeing here for that sector? because it is so pervasive as to the impact on some other sectors? >> you're absolutely right, neil. it tends, financials tend to lead the market because that's where the focus is. that is the money. we're talking about money, when you talk about the financial side of the market. the stocks that represent the financial side of the market. so they're not doing very well right now. that is understandable. let me make it simple for people that perhaps don't believe in the technical side of the market, neil. i guess over the long term if you want to have a simple system of the market you simply look at what almost everyone looks at, even non-technicians, that is the 200-day moving average. what is the price been the last 200 market days, average those prices out. if we're below it, that's negative.
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if we're above it it's positive. we got above it for a couple of months coming into the top here in early march. everyone got excited again. i should say the top in early february. we got above it. by then that was the peak. we started coming down. now we have broken a 200-day moving average that has been declining. when a 200 day is declining that simply means the current price is lower than the price of 200 days ago. so if you simply look at that and nothing else, you will be well-guided in the market. you will not lose 30, 40, 50% of your equity, okay? it is simplistic way of dealing with the technical side of the market. right now here is what is interesting, right now virtually all of the important averages and indexes are well-below. they have gone back below just in the last week or two, back below their 200-day moving averages, which, which are declining for the most part. the only one that is holding
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here pretty, pretty well on a relative basis is the nasdaq 100. it is interesting. i guess you can say they represent the tech stocks. but they're fighting a big battle right now at their 200-day moving average. attempting to stay there. so far they have been able to do it. neil: yeah. they have got a double, you know, whammy potentially here. not only what had been a rising interest rates, reversing. that might save them here if it holds also what happened to venture capital, drying that up for big boys. that is not as consequential as some of the smaller players but it could be something to watch. curious what you make what is going on with some major averages. the s&p 500 is 70, 80 points from being negative on the year. i know you go out a little further, look pat 200 day average action, the like, but what do you make of that? >> okay. here is something to watch, neil and this is potentially very important. there has been, you and i talked
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about this before. there has been a very consistent 20-year cycle in the market. you can go all the way back to 1922. go forward with me every 20 years, you will start to recognize, some of these very important bottoms. 1942, 1962, 1982, 2002. every single one of them important market bottoms. so in 2022, last year an important market bottom was scheduled to appear. well, we had a bottom in october of 2022 and we have yet to go below that bottom. so you can make an argument if you want to be bullish, you're not going anywhere to the downside until you break those october lows, october of 22. now some indexes are closer than others but you break those
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october of 22 lows, and then you really accelerate to the downside. you're really in trouble. help me, peter as well from a technical perspective what it means when the fed has been raising rates. this is of course the week that we, you know, look at one year an stressorry of starting raising rates from sear pro. here we are at almost 5% on fed funds, overnight lending rate. when the fed pauses, just stops, how does that affect your number crunching? >> you know me, neil. that, i don't even, that stuff is all fairytale stuff to me. neil: i had a feeling you would say that. >> everyone, we wait with bated breath, with pulsing breath we wait, what is the fed going to do? this is so important what the fed is going to do. i mean frankly my evaluation of what the fed has done is they have been great enemies of the financial markets.
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for 20 years now up until about the last six months or a year we have had artificially low interest rates. what has that forced to happen? it forced speculation in the market. if you work your whole life, neil, and you finally a few hundred thousand, maybe even a million dollars to retire with, and someone says to you, well you know, when you started accumulating that money you thought you might be able to get five or 6% interest rates on it conservatively with no risk or little risk. so you would make 50, 60,000 a year. how has that been affected in the last 20 years, neil? your million dollars, if you were lucky you got $10,000 a year return on it on a conservative basis. so they forced people into speculation. ultimately we will pay the price for that. i think we started now. neil: what do you tell people to do with their money, then,
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peter, in this environment. >> i think ultimately the situation like this if you want to relax and not have to worry about it use the full faith, credit of the united states government and get into it. bills. they become more attractive now, neil. that is another thing. that is another thing that will hurt the market here. these people start to get beaten down in their stocks will say, wait a minute, we were getting 1% in t-bills if we were lucky. we can get 4, 5% now, that is what we've been waiting for. so what is going to happen? are you going to keep your money in the market, god, please help us out we have to go up from here, don't we, don't we? neil: you can be a silicon valley, if you needed to get the cash early not hold it to maturity, you could get screwed there. in that unlikely development all bets are off, right?
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>> that we're not talking about t-bills here. there is risk in the financial system, neil t could be great risk. why would you take chances. here is the thing killing, will end up killing people that are in speculative positions. the fact that interest rates are rising now is going to create all kinds of problems. this is my fundamentalist mouth talking now. so probably pay little attention to it. because i'm an idiot when it comes to fundamentals, but, when you start seeing interest rates rising you're doing a lot of things. first of all you start to help out people that want to be conservative with their money and get some kind of a return but second of all, neil, and here's the killer, what is this going to do to incredible amount of debt that is out there that has been able to get by with very minimal interest rates? all of sudden those minimal interest rates are growing and
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growing and growing. you say, my god, they can't go up any further, can they? we can't afford this payment of interest rates. so on both levels you see this whole thing completely turning around, neil. completely getting, getting twisted and not for the good of the financial system. neil: not yet, not today to your point. peter, thank you very much peter you're always good for my diet because after i talk to you i don't feel like eating. >> always good to talk to you, neil. always enjoy it. neil: same here, my friend. you hear from a bear. you heard from bulls. we always want to be fair and balanced about this we make sure you hear from a democrat, a republican, conservative, to a liberal. when it comes to the financial community, those who are optimistic about where the market is going and those who like peter are not. by watt way those harbor the view we're going into something bad, look at yield on 10-year treasury note or bond, depending
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on your view, it is down 3.39%. couple weeks ago, keep in mind was over 4%. bond prices are attracting a lot of new capital here. as money comes in, price goes up, yield goes down but that has been a very attractive sort of parking spot for money for a lot of peoples money. including banks down to individual investors saying get me out of here, assure me some return, because it beats what i'm getting for the time-being not getting in stocks. meantime want to draw your attention something going on across the atlantic. talking about protests in paris over what are entitlementment changes president emannuel macron wants to implement. for those of you familiar watchers of this show you will know that i'm fixated on this because the protests are over something seems relatively minor, raising the retirement age in france from 62 to 64 over the next seven years.
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that is not going down well with a population that likes the most generous pension system of the free world where emannuel macron is now saying but it is not free. the costs are out of this world. they protest. a lot of people say what is going on there could be a preview of coming attractions here, if we have to implement something far more onerous and far more sweeping. stay with us.
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neil: it is global bank got it. european markets just closed. for the most part they were all down, down quite a bit. 3% or more losses across the board, whether you're talking britain, what is going on in france, germany, all the markets feeling the same banking fears we are here. is that justified? kevin hassett former council of economic advisor chairman under president trump, ought of
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runaway best-seller, "the drift." no drift here. a real wave of selling globally as you know, kevin. a lot of people mr. saying more shoes drop but i don't know, once you have one shoe drop you have only one to go, but i guess the fear is, that this ain't over. what do you think? >> you know i think that if we look at the banks that are in trouble, that they have prettied prettied yo sincratic problems. my guess is that the contagion effect will abate. frankly if i were on the fed i will still raise rate at the next meeting to look at inflation as the number one problem. the problem in fact when you go back to the '70s, when inflation got out of control, they would start to tighten and things got a little rough and they chicken out and loosen that is the mistake that brought us into double-digit inflation.
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frankly the bailout right now, think of it as a quantitative easing by the fed here in the u.s. and so they're pushing inflation up. and so for me, question, i think that, if you look at the problems of the banks that have had trouble they don't spread to the entire system. i'm not, i really don't think we're looking at kind of global collapse we saw in '08, nothing close to it. neil: i hope you're right about that. the one thing i remember about that meltdown, and we were covering it very closely and you were living it very closely is that it got out of hand. stocks started sinking fast. then it was, that was the very currency for a lot of these financial firms. their stock collapsed. they were really losing a lot of money both among investors, even among those who did not want to stay with those institutions. do you see anything like that, that in other words, this is localized to these banks that had unique issues, but now,
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you've heard the reports, kevin, of people running to big banks like bank of america that has taken in $15 billion in deposits over the last week. it is clear why. people are nervous being in a smaller, less big bank. i'm wondering whether that has a spillover effect, more go out precisely because of that? >> you know, it could for sure have a spillover effect but one thing i would like to say, i know a lot of your viewers are worried about their own money all around the country and the fact is that the fdic insurance to 250 is pretty easy to spread over a heck of a lot of money. you can go to three or four community banks in your hometown, or online place like vanguard not doing a bad for them with banks at 250, get fdic insurance. you don't have to run to the biggest banks to protect yourself. there is the concern sort of a bailout for all depositors we
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saw the frankly the federal government can't finance forever. people are hunkering down and taking risk off but i think there are ways to do that that don't lead to massive bank combination. neil: fdic pay backs for depositors limitless, way beyond 250,000 for a individual, half a million for a couple. i'm not, sharpest tool in the shed, kevin but that can't be. it has spot to be reflected in higher bank fees invariably since banks pay for that get transferred to us, right? >> yeah. that's right. another way to think about it is, right, if the fed, so right now the supposedly you have a treasury really underwater because you bought it a few years ago when rates were really low, now rates are a lot higher, well you can give it to the fed they will give you money at par right now. and so, how much would you pay
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for the ability to take an underwater treasury and actually get like the face value of it, how much would you pay? that is like real money, right? since the fed is doing that, then the fed is spending real money in the end something taxpayers will have to cover. i think the bailout is definitely in the end going to be taxpayer money, sometimes when there is a panic, right, the panic is totally irrational. if you get the panic to stop then the assets are worth a lot more. if you go back to look at some of the other bailouts which i generally opposed. you know me for decades the amount of money the government ended up losing on the bailouts was smaller than the critics thought. once you stop panic the asset goes back, and it is not so bad. neil: sometimes money made on tarp. we'll see how it goes. kevin, always enjoy chatting. kevin hassett on all the fast-moving developments. >> thank you, neil. neil: senator bernie sanders is on the wires, everyone is
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concerned about the impact of credit suisse on the u.s. banking system. that perhaps is the understatement of the decade. we're going to ask his wyoming republican senator colleague cynthia loomis what she thinks about that, sitting on the banking committee. they came out an important meeting maybe she updates us where this whole thing is going after this.
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senator, always great having you. do you think it was a mistake to essentially rescue or backstop this bank? >> i do think it was a mistake, neil. i think it's better to allow the system to function as it was designed with 250,000-dollar limits on insured deposits. if you look at svb, they had about six percent of their deposits insured. the typical bank has way over 50% of their bank deposits insured and more of the community banks are closer to 60, 70, even higher percent insured. this was a very risky bank. they banked a lot of venture capital, risky money and, there were a lot of incentives for risk-takers to bank with svb. because of that svb should be
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allowed to fail. most people who put their money at risk there should have to eat the consequences. neil: what about the government, fdic, more to the point, senator, protecting deposits way beyond $250,000, almost limitless? >> the problem with that is, that the smaller community banks are going to be assessed for providing the bailout money for those above 250,000-dollar deposit amounts. so it is a disincentive to community banks and incentivizes people to take moral hazard and throw it out the window and say, nah, we'll get a bailout. so let's take more risk and, that is just a bad signal to send to depositors and to the banks themselves. neil: it is a gut call on your
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part, senator. your opinion matters to a lot of people obviously but the federal reserve is going to move on interest rates one way or the other next week. others are saying maybe it shouldn't, maybe it should take a pass and not hike rates as most expect it will. others say it should. where are you on this, what do you think would happen if they did? >> well, i think it is important that the fed stay the course they had designed. they may want to look at going with, for example, 25 basis point rather than 50. i don't know what they're considering now. but i think it is important that we get inflation under control. you look at the prices that consumers are paying for everyday items like food. i'm hearing from people say, i hate going to the grocery store now because i can't afford the items that i used to buy. when i'm hearing that at home in wyoming and elsewhere, that says to me that inflation should come
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first in terms of addressing the problems at hand. neil: got it. all right, senator lummis, great catching up with you again. be well. >> thank you. you as well, neil. neil: meantime want to go to taylor riggs. i'm sure they have a big, big money show coming up with all the big things going on. taylor? taylor: we do, neil. we're all over the marketss questions of contagion, financial stability as well as the conversation we're having, does the fed go next week, do they not. with very a great voice jason tran earth, ceo of strategas research partners joins us next. first more "coast to coast" coming up next. i know the markets have gone up and down, but you're right on track to reach your goals. my ameriprise advisor helps me feel confident about my financial future. he knows me and my goals. it's not the first uncertain environment he's helped me navigate. probably won't be the last. but with his advice, i know i'm on track.
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everywhere right now. let's get a sense of how global this is, whether we should worry, scott martin kingsview asset management, kenny polcari slatestone wealth chief market strategist. kenny, end with you, want to get your thoughts what is going on here, so global we're now beginning to see dimensions of this, not so much the fight over pensions in france although that could come here by the way, but the fight over how safe peoples money is in banks, what do you say? >> i think the whole silicon valley bank thing kind of created this unwarranted level of fear in the markets over the banks. i don't think there is anything wrong with the banking system in the united states, whether a big money center bank, smaller regional bank, silicon valley was a specific bank catered to a very specific group of people. in retrospect do i think we do
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the right thing, backstopping depositors, first i think they did, get people out, tear that thing all apart what actually happened in terms of the bank, in terms of the management. don't discount the speed which social media, all those venture capital guys created this angst and anxiety over something that was very normal in the banking industry, that hold to maturity type of portfolio. whether it was right for silicon valley bank that is one question but they created this hysteria. peter thiel, a lot of very prominent people created this hysteria took all of 36 hours via social media to destroy the bank. that i think we have to be more concerned about but the health of the banks in this country i'm not worried about this at all. think this is a way, way overreaction. neil: it might be, dramatic market conditions, heightened, dramatically sped up in this type of environment, scott, people sell first, ask questions later. are you worried that the newsom people seem to be taking money
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out of regional banks, putting them into big money center banks like bank of america, citigroup, welts fargo, we're told this could kind of feed on itself. >> it might. i worry they're making a mistake if people are doing that. kenny said it perfectly in so many aspects. there is not anything to worry about until there is something to worry about, when you're worry about something, unless it is legitimate like housing boom in 2008 and 2009, this is confidence issues that the fed and treasury have to be ready to jump on and they have been they have to be ready to continue to do that as the ecb over in europe, neil. i worry in thing goes further, to take kenny's point earlier, that it goes further than it should. if it does, fine. as money managers, we invest in you at home we're buying into this, we think selloffs into bank names, tech names, oil, commodities is way overdone. it is way stretched t will be a great buying opportunity
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provided things don't go off the rails and the government doesn't let some of these things fail. remember these are depositors getting screwed over. the businesses with money on deposit there, are there to basically have their money park there, do payroll, pay bills. they are not trying to take risk. the banks are, if banks are doing things they shouldn't be doing, take them out of that game. neil: quickly he was referring to the european central bank expected to go ahead with a planned rate hike, tomorrow, kenny. the question becomes federal reserve does the same when it meets next week. what do you think? >> i think they should. i do not think the fed should pause. i don't think they should do nothing. i think that send as different message that, to the community versus what the narrative has been. let them go 25. let them get the rate 4.75, 5, where the terminal rate will be after the 25 basis-point hike, then they want to sit back and pause. we'll get pce at end of the
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