with hundreds of millions of dollars to influence and induce, and nobody gets in trouble. maybe it's the an open secret here as well, but we should stop acting like it hasn't gotten out of hand, right? only special interests making the highest bid these days get what they want in washington, d.c., and that is certainly not what the framers of the constitution had in mind. at least that is not what i think. liz claman, i'm buckled up. liz: well, yeah. make sure the shoulder strap is on. we've got some breaking news. in the last 45 minutes regarding amc entertainment, shares were halted due to volatility around 1:25 the p.m. eastern, and mt. last hour a report from intersect hit the tape that amazon might be considering buying the theater chain outright. you saw amc entertainment holdings jump more than 13%. right now moderating just a bit, up 10.9%. and amazon at the moment is down about 1%. charlie gasparino confirmed

through this web site, and as he continues to the watch this story and we will too, we're going to keep an eye on news of any potential reports or deals about these two names. but for the moment, amc is now trading once again, up about 9.8%. all right, the bulls though overall are in retreat at this hour. the major averages are slipping led by declines in ec and financials, the dow down about 63 points. off the lows of the session, had been down about 136 points. s&p 500 losing 13, the nasdaq down 86. the russell 2000 down 2 points. today is just not big tech's day. to the dow heat map, and you can see microsoft and you also have apple in the bottom five here, plumbing the depths of the dow blue chips even on very day that apple introduced its new apple pay later program. it's apple's answer to the buy now, pay later space that will allow users to splitter

purchases into four -- split purchases into four payments with no interest. so apple right now down just under 1 president, and we should look -- 1%, and we should look who it's really affecting, affirm down about 8.4% on news of increased competition. let's check the heat map once again though. intel is not far behind apple. you can see it too is in the red, down about a quarter of a percent. and, of course, semiconductor giant, we always watch those, speaking of semiconductors, while the nasdaq can still boast gains of 1 11%9 year to date, at this hour the nasdaq is down 83 points or three-quarters of a or if percent due to the weakness in semiconductors and semiequipment makers. we do have applied materials, asml holdings, they're all down about 1% to 2. 33%. nvidia and texas instruments also flagging here. now, year to date though semis have been a banner trade with

the basket gaining 20% since january 2nd. at this hour down about 1.33%. all right, president biden is at the cur ham, north carolina, headquarters of chip maker wolfspeed. the president i vowing to continue support of the u.s. semiconductor or industry in an effort to wean it off china's chip supply chain. while we are seeing hesitant trading in equities, the bond market action has been at least for most of the session can decidedly firmer. the 2-year and the 10-year yield right now are popping. 2-year yield up 8.6 basis points to 4.06%. 10-year up 2.8 basis points to 3.456%. and if you look to march, around march 13th, the monday after the weekend during which both silicon valley bank and signature banks collapsed, yields dramatically dropped in a classic fear trade where investors rushed to the safety of government treasuries. it took 11 days for the 10-year to bottom out at about 3.8ing

3%, 2-year bottoms at 3.77%. but what about the regional banks left standing? first republic, it is still wobbling right now, lower by about 5.25% to $13.10. pacwest down 4.7% and key corp. down just under 1%. so in the wake of the banking sector's near miss with the run on the banks bogeyman, a full half -- actually, more than half now, 56% of the market is betting that the federal reserve halt its interest with rate hikes at the next committee meeting in may. halt as in pause, full stop. but the world's largest asset manager says market is wrong. in a client note last night, blackrock's strategist said the fed will ignore the market's wishes and will continue to tighten. not only that, they say stop waiting for the fed to cut rates this year. quote: that's the old playbook when central banks would rush to rescue the economy as recession hit.

with we see a new, more nuanced phase of less fighting but still no rate ku9s. so what's the trade if blackrock's right? well, let's get it straight from chief investment officer of global fixed income, rick reider. why do you believe the fed will tighten in may, and by how much in. >> listen, we were going through some pretty significant financial stress p. if you assume that, you know, what the federal reserve likes to do is use the other tools to the deal with what they call macroprudential maturation. they put $300 billion into the system since the beginning of march -- liz: that's crazy, isn't it? >> it's a lot of money. by the way, we were doing $12 the 0 billion a month during qe, but to do it this quickly and we're done with qe, reducing the balance sheet. what the fed wants to do is let those tools work to solve the stress mt. banking system. but you've got an inflation problem. you're still running at inflation. in fact, we think next inflation's report going to be hot again because used car prices are not.com -- not coming

down. liz: cpi. >> cpi. and if that's right, not just for the fed, for the ecb, you've got to try to bring inflation down. so you're talking about threading the needle and an economy that's still operating pretty well. i think now the economy's going to start to flow, but the fed is still, for today, still in a mode of we have to move. but the one thing i think is important, we are getting close to the end, and i think that's a big deal for markets. liz: i'm guessing you're saying a quarter point. >> i think so. liz: is there any chance that the fed would say, yes, we're going to tighten but by 10 basis points versus 25 the? is that too much of a black helicopter theory? >> you know, i'm trying to the think if it's the happened. i think it has happened in the past. i think they're going to because i think they'd like to keep it at the 25s, but you can do it in a way, like this last report when they did it, when they hiked, then they tried to change the statement quite a bit, and the dots were lower in terms of

what their expectations were. it was an easier, a more dovish hike. i think they hike 25 but give a clear indication that, gosh, the restrictive policy is already put this place, now we can, now we can pause, and i think they're going to the pause for an extended period of time. liz: well, you were 100% correct the last time when a bunch of the market participants whether it was goldman or double line said, oh, the fed's going to pause on march 21st, and they did not. >> yeah. liz: so that said, we know, as you just said, that inflation is probably still a problem. slowing but, you know, a little disinflationary still there. at what rate does the fed stop? has your terminal if rate, you had said 5.25, right? >> yeah, yeah. liz: has that shifted at all? >> no, i think that's where we're going to get to the. i think they're going to leave it there for a while. i think what you're watching manifest itself, we talk about long and variable lag. however, all of a sudden you see the interest-sensitive participants of the economy, commercial real estate being at

the epicenter9 of that, all of a sudden you see that restrictive policy mt. banking system which you were talking about, all of a sudden the interest-sensitive parts of the economy are really starting to slow. liz: okay. so now we're getting to the investment part of this. >> okay. liz: so i'm hearing you say commercial real estate, residential real estate, maybe the lenders out there, auto lenders -- >> yep, exactly. liz: you're going to stay away from anything that is sensitive to rising rates. >> yeah. i mean, by the way, you have an economy that creates -- it's very different the than it used to be. you used to have a hard asset, commodity-oriented economy. think about where the cap-x in this country goes, a.i., software spend, and that's not as interest rate-sensitive. today the places you invest are, gosh, the places that are not as interest rate-sensitive, not where leverage is built, where the potential stress the, things in our markets and the fixed income markets, like leveraged loans, be careful. but the places that are not as interest rate-sensitive the, you

can feel prettied good, health care, technology, defense, not as interest rate-sensitive. and i think that's where for the time being let long and variable lag play out and be in the places where you have stable cash flow and not sensitized to those rates. liz: i can't tell you how many times i've goated -- quoted you from your last appearance where you said investing in the treasury market right now is nirvana because you can park it for different amounts of time, different periods of time and get a very nice clip of 4 to, well, at the time it was 5%. where do you still feel the bond market is nirvana? >> liz, i'll tell you, the thing that's pretty extraordinary is today cash-like investments and, you know, things like we're buying commercial paper, you know, 3, 6, 9-month company funding that you can coat 5.25, 5.5, 5.75, pretty extraordinary, not taking interest rate risk because you're talking about 3-month or 6-month paper. it matures quickly.

that, i'll go back to my nirvana comment, i forgot about that one. [laughter] i don't have to take the bay a that risk os concern beta risks or volatility risks. and we're starting to take more exposure in the 10-year point. liz: really? >> i think if you think about given the credit contraction, you have to assume now that interest rates, 10-year interest rates are going to be lower than they would have been a month or two ago before you had this sort of financial stress. so i think the 10-year note, if you can buy the 10-year note in the high 3s, that's pretty interesting. the other place, quality income, agency mortgages -- liz: wait. why not something like the 4-month, okay? the t-bill, right? >> great. liz: i saw it yielding earlier today 4.9%. the 6-month, 4.84%. that gives you a little bit of a buffer zone between what's happening with first republic and the end of the summer. >> all day. man, they're great. and it's the part of why the

deposits are flowing out of some of these institutions like, boy, maybe i don't want to take the risk, and i could just go into t-bills and sit there, and we could talk about the debt ceiling, the others. that being said, t-bills are going to mature, and that's an attractive -- you go back a year or so ago, we were buying high yield at 3.5%. now we're buying t-bills at close to 5. that is -- i wouldn't say it's as exciting as equities can be at times, but it's a great alternative now, and you can sleep at night. liz: well, sometimes exciting gives you heart pal i biations. >> ole. palpitations. liz: i wanted to ask you this question because a lot of people are saying my money market fund at my bank is now offering 4.5%. what is the difference between a 3-month t-bill or even a 6-month or something like that or a 1-year at 4.5%, forget that, at 4.5 and a money market that says

i will pay you 4.5% at your bank? >> so, listen, by the way, if you're doing it, i would -- there's no reason not to own all of it. it's a question of what is the maturity of that money market fund. do you want to have the money locked up for 9 months or are you worried that, gosh, i want to roll it over because rates go higher, and i could roll it over. it's a question of how much rollover refinancing or reinvestment risk you want to take. but none of them are bad options. to own a money market fund or 4.5 or t-bills, those are all good options. you're not going to the lose money on them. it's a different world. if you think about it, for 10 years rates were at zero. many in europe they were at negative, the silliest invention ever. now you can sit in the risk-free rate at close to 5, and a money market fund is just as safe. liz: especially if it's, you know, it's backstop by the fdic. >> 100%. nor the assets underneath it are

treasuries. liz: anything keep you up at night? >> everything keeps me up at night. [laughter] i don't get a lot of sleep. you know, what keeps me up at night is, listen, we're going to talk about the debt ceiling and, you know, with some intensity over the next few months. the u.s.-china relationship keeps me up. the other geopolitical dynamics, midwest, etc. a lot of these things is part of why getting a safe 5 and sleeping at night is enhancing, sleep-enhancing. there's still a lot of risk in the world. i say i think people underestimate when they say the fed's got to raise rates, just keep going. things break along the way, and you see it manifest in situations like this. liz: well, silicon valley bank, signature bank and the distress that some of the regions are still having. rick, it's great to have you. >> thanks forking having me on. liz: especially since blackrock has declared interest rate hikes will continue. thank you so much. >> thanks, liz. liz: so when you're talking about who knew, was it a black swan about these regional banks, the man who had a small basket

of about 50 short bents existence regional -- bets against regional banks that included silicon valley bank and first republic before the banking crisis hit, it's city torrey fund founder dan niles. he is going to join us in a few minutes to talk about what he's anticipating in the financial sector and because he have any new shorts he's putting on. we'll stay tuned for. that higher interest rates not just taking a toll on the banking sector, there's brand new evidence elevated mortgage rates are dampening home prices. that's good for buyers, right? but is the drop more like a crop the in the bucket? up next, the ceo of remax on the lack of affordability in the housing market. how that's impacting his business. and we will ask how in the world can the younger e generation ever afford a home? closing bell, 45 minutes away. dow is down 76 points. if you care about your money, you are in the right place.

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liz: will cooler home prices prevail? if january is any indication, things are getting a little less expensive. according to today's latest case-shiller index which tracks 20 cities, month over month home prices dropped .6%. year-over-year they did rise 2.5%, but that's much cooler than the 4.6% rise for the previous month that we had data for, december. but despite prices cooling, rising mortgage rates are the new wrench in home buyers' plans even though they have fallen from october's high. so what will the year's spring

housing season look like, and who can afford to buy a house? the ceo of real estate giant remax, nick bailey, joins me now in a fox business exclusive. well, leapt us start with mortgage rates, nick. while down 2 basis points from last week's number, the average 30-year fixed is more than 1% higher than it was at i'm last year. time last year. we've got it on the screen. this time last year it was at 5.33%, and here we are now at 6.89%. what is this doing to real estate demand? >> well, hi, liz. great to be with you again. and you're right, interest rates and they are bouncing up and down, and they will probably continue to do so. we know what's happening with short-term interest rates and the fed trying to cool inflation. but we always have to keep in mind that mortgage rates are based on the 10-year treasury, and that can fluctuate at a different rate than the short term. so what it means to buyers is

rates are going to bounce around, we believe. they have been over the last couple of quarters, and we believe they will continue as the year progresses. liz: okay. but that's still more than a full percentage point more expensive year-over-year that we're looking at. i guess from where you sit is what i really want to know, what because business look like for you? >> well, i i see a couple of things. one thing that's happening when you look at prices, we talked about them cooling. you mentioned the numbers about a half a percent, but they're still up from a year ago. but they're just not rising at that double-digit rate. that's good for buyers. even though rates have gone up, all we talk about is the 30-year fixed. there are things radiolike the adjustment rate -- things like the adjustable rate mortgage, it crop thed to single digits when the 30-year fixed was so low. so we're seeing buydowns come back which is an opportunity for buyers, buy down that interest rate. and also look at i adjustable

rate products. there are opportunities out there for buyers other than just the 30-year fixed and quite honestly what's interesting about 30-year fixed, the average homeowner in the u.s. lives in their home 8 years, and the media r january's 12.3. so in many cases people are choosing this long-term mortgage, but they may not need it. they can have an option at a lower rate. the other thing that's happening is buyers are not competing and paying over list price, and so what we were seeing a year ago is though interest rates were lore, they might have been paying -- lower, they might have been paying 50, 80, $100,000 over list price, and we're not seeing that today. liz: relate me interrupt -- let me interrupt you, and it shows this lovely family with a little baby. mortgage affordability has gone down. it is so crazy how much people have to spend of their disposable income now compared to before the, before pandemic, right, before the lockdowns.

we can put up some of these numbers because, to me, this is really the issue. before service the something like 30-35% of people's disposable income, that's what they were spending on their monthly mortgage. then in october of '22, that was the high, 55% of their entire monthly nut that they could spend had to go toward their mortgage. and now, at least february, the most recent, is a 51%. nick, i'm sorry, that's not a pattern that is going to work for a lot of people right now. and what's going to make it change so that the next generation can afford a home? >> well, affordability has certainly been a hot topic. and you're right, people are spending more. but there are a couple of things that have happened that we've seen in the market. one is first-time home buyers are taking advantage of lower down payment opportunities. there are different type of loans that are 2, 3, 4% that may not be the 20% down, and that's

coupled with maybe a lower interest rate. as we look at the number of homes sold, what's really affecting the market right now is move-up buyers. 90% of homeowners out there have an interest rate less than 5%, and of that, 50% of them are under 3.5%. so getting married, having another child, that has a forcing function on a different property. it's going to be first-time home buyers that stay at the forefront of these more affordable type products. but i will tell you one more thing. new construction can't come out of the ground fast enough. we have less hand a million homes on the market, and so it really comes down to supply. so to answer your question, if people are going to have a chance at better affordability, we need more product out there. liz: that is true. >> and we're not going to see that anytime soon with new construction and because of the move-up buyers being comfortable with their rates where inventory's going to continue to be tight and affordability's going to continue to be the an issue this year. liz: nick. thank you very much, let's hope that people get that

affordability, because it's really concern something's got to the give. thank you very much. nick bailey of remax. nothing gets between investors and their calvins. the parent company of calvin klein is sport sporting big gains in this final hour, and why is lucid dropping? we're going to tell you why next. closing bell, 36 minutes away. the dow down 88 points, the s&p lower by 14. the nasdaq's the big struggler here, down three-quarters of a percent or 83 points. we're coming right back. we're coming right back. ♪ ♪ that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. with a majority of my patience with sensitivity, i see irritated gums and weak enamel. sensodyne sensitivity gum & enamel relieves sensitivity, helps restore gum health, and rehardens enamel. i'm a big advocate of recommending things that i know work.

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liz: fox business alert, the cow, s&p are on pace to snap a 3-day winning streak. yes, we've got red on the screen here. just, you know, still this question about the regional banks and first republic and what, you know, charlie gasparino's actually working on that. he's going to be the up in a minute to talk more about the status of whether somebody wants to sweep in and maybe buy chunks of it or the whole thing. in the meantime, mccormick, the spice king, bringing the heat to investors' portfolios. the stock is up 9%. the stock is gaining here, nearing a 3-month high after beating analyst estimates for first quarter revenue and profits. the seasonings company behind frank's red hot and old bay benefiting from price hikes on its products. however, mccormick did see a decline in first quarter gross margins due to inflation and high supply chain costs. to bring down those costs, the

company says it plans to increase automation which, of course, as the dominoes fall could reduce its supply chain work force by 10%. calvin klein parent pvh reporting high ier than expecting revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter, stock jumping 19.7% at this moment. the retailer that also counts oral themy hilfiger as its brand expects full-year revenue to increase 3-4%. pvh on pace for its largest percentage jump since november of 200. online health insurer oscar health is up 61% after naming former aetna head mark bertolini as its new ceo. alphabet-backed oscar seeing its largest 1-day gain ever. stock is still $5.79. but, of course, that could change. get a great manager like bertolini, we're see. shares of lucid motors are

falling, down 7.5% at this hour on reports the luxury ev maker is planning to cut about 18% of its work force. according to the report, lucid will communicate details of the layoffs in the next 3 days. stock's really struggled here, it's down 68% over the past year. it's been nearly 3 months since the first state-approved recreational cannabis store opened in new york city, but the legal weed rollout has not gone very far with only three in total in lower manhattan. that is not stopping the illegal marijuana locations from mushrooming. with more than 1,400 suspected spots across city. well,, now the police are cracking down. fox business got to ride along with the new york city sheriff's county when it raided some illicit shops. madison alworth joins us from the east village, a smoke shop

temporarily shut down following one of those raids. madison. >> reporter: hi, liz. yes, the sheriff's compliance asking force, they are trying to make their way through those nearly 1400 shops, and we got the chance to ride along with them yesterday and see firsthand the work they are doing. our morning started with the morning briefing. we learned our invests would be focused in the borrow of queens. we were also told -- borough of queens, and we were told these smoke shops have seen an increase in the robberies, so we needed to look out for employees that might be carrying weapons for protection. our day ended in a shop that officers found did not possess a license to sell tobacco products at all. and then they also found something else underneath the cash register. >> we're able to, you know, check the different compartments and everything. it's right there. >> reporter: but even more marijuana edibles and its 69 thc vape pens were found on display ready for sale.

>> they're not hiding it because you get told about legislation and everything getting back to the what we can enforce and what the individual can sell. so they're out here prematurely selling these items without these licenses. so is everything is illicit which is why we're doing our job. it's these locations close to the schools and churches. >> reporter: since the task force started in november, there have been over $10 million worth of assets seized and 35 arrests. now, very few of these stores end up being closed after these investigations. we're told from the sheriff's department that just four or closed including the one behind me, and that's because today had multiple citations which ultimately meant that they got a nuisance abatement order closing them down for the time being. the rest, including all the stores we sop thed by yesterday, still up and running. liz? liz: well, see, if you going to have a weed industry that's legal, you've got to shut down the illegal ones, right? i mean, it's just not going to be fair if some are paying taxes and others are not, right,

madison? >> reporter: right. and interestingly, the new york city sheriff's county is within the finance department, so obviously they're not happy to see that these, all these tax laws that are being avoided. that's why they also regulate tobacco products. but on top of this, part of the new york legalization is that those legal shops go back to communities that were disenfranchised by the drug war. now those communities are continuing to lose out when the illegal market is thriving. liz: madison, thank you. very interesting stuff riding along with the sheriffs on this very important story. we'll continue to follow it. all right, whatever the start-up, companies in need of capital are already finding a suddenly colder climate thanks to the regional banking crisis. saw torrey fund founder and top investor dan niles is up next on whether tighter credit and lending will shove stocks deeper into the woods. and he's about to name stocks that can still charge out of the woods that he likes, plus what's

his new short position or at least what's the one he's planning on taking? venture capitalist alan patricof has been through in an investment crisis. as the son of immigrants, he went from selling newspapers by the new york city subway the dominating the vc world. he's been in the start-up funding race for more than 50 years, all the while racing in new york city marathons and writing his book, "no red lights." get his take on it all in my new everyone talks to liz podcast episode. you can find it on amazon, google, spotify, i heart radio, wherever you get your podcasts. closing bell, 24 minutes away. dow is down about 87 points. we are coming right back with dan niles. that's one you do not want to miss. ♪ ♪ (wheezing) asthma isn't pretty. it's the moment when you realize that a good day... is about to become a bad one.

but then, i remembered that the world is so much bigger than that, with trelegy. because one dose a day helps keep my asthma symptoms under control. and with 3 medicines in 1 inhaler, trelegy helps improve lung function so i can breathe easier for a full 24 hours. trelegy won't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. trelegy contains a medicine that increases risk of hospitalizations and death from asthma problems when used alone. when this medicine is used with an inhaled corticosteroid, like in trelegy, there is not a significant increased risk of these events. do not take trelegy more than prescribed. trelegy may increase risk of thrush and infections. get emergency care for serious allergic reactions. see your doctor if your asthma does not improve or gets worse. ♪ what a wonderful world. ♪ ask your doctor about once-daily trelegy for asthma - because breathing should be beautiful. and i remember kind of thinking like, "oh my gosh, i think we could be sisters." because i think we looked... yes. right. yeah. and i don't think at that time- i think you're the one to tell me

that we had the same birthday. yes. it's really unbelievable when you think about it, because it's been, like, really over 20 years that you were my mother and father's banker, you became my banker and now fran is in her third year of college and you're her banker. it's so unbelievable because i'm just 20 years old. [laughing]

liz: fast and furious finger

pointing on capitol hill earlier told as federal reserve's vice chair for supervision, michael barr, told the senate banking committee that silicon valley bank executiveses did a, quote, terrible job of managing risk. yeah, and that bank collapsed. barr also said the fed had raised problems with svb as early as november of 2021 which then led lawmakers to pounce on regulators including those at the fed. >> i hope to learn how the federal reserve could know about such risky practices for more than a year, by all accounts, our regulators appear to have been asleep at the wheel. liz: oh, this went on and on, and they were pouncing on him saying where were you guys. well, officials are telling lawmakers that the u.s. banks are sound, but lists see what the -- let's see what the investment smart i the pants thinks. [laughter] joining me now, a man who actually had a short position in silicon valley bank, signature

bank and first republic among another basket of stocks, and that would be dan niles. in fact, he tweeted back on march 10th old saying, quote, fed keeps raising until something breaks. so 25 the basis point raises are most likely on march 22nd, that was the most recent fed meeting. banking system much better. capitalized versus gfc. i believe silicon valley bank is a take-under covering many shorts today, but st bounce but believes ultimate low ahead due to earnings and high inflation. but even before that, satori fund founder and senior portfolio manager dan niles had this basket of shorts that included first republic and these banks. dan joins us now. dan, what, honestly, what made you take that short position? >> well, you have to remember we've been saying on air late are, since late last year in

november, i think, that we were worried about a long-term capital management type of situation or lehman brothers, some kind of systematic event happening. and so we've been looking for this. we weren't looking for the banks to go under right now, we were thinking that would be more of a back half of the year problem. quite honestly, we were more worried about the private equity companies that are invested in commercial real estate which people seem to be focused on right now. so when you had a financial services conference that came on earlier that week when silicon valley bank failed and you had a bunch of regional banks come out and say we're going to have to cut our net interest income margins expectations because a lot of our customers are saying why am i getting less than 50 basis points on my savings account or checking when i can go to the a 3-month t-bill and get close to 5. that spurred us to put it on and, you know, we were shocked to see them go under when they did. but as ernest hemingway said in one of his books, when a

character asks, well, how'd you go bankrupt? the other character answers, two ways. garage gradually and then suddenly. and that's what happened with these banks. liz: well, yes. and my question to you is as we look at the landscape for some of the regionals here that depending on the day and the headline are still very wobbly, and i'm thinking first republic, pacwest, you know, some of these names don't look that healthy. are you shorting any of them now? >> yes. i mean, we put out a tweet on this on march 10th. the s&p was around 3850 and we said we're covering our shorts. our short positions have been over 55% of our portfolio. we took it down to less than 5%. and we started putting some of those back on. we haven't fully ramped back up, but we have i put some shorts on some of the regional banks that we thought were more problematic. we haven't put back on the 50 basket yet, but we've started that process because in the short term you can get a lot of optimism.

i mean, you go back to when lee aman brothers fail -- lehman brothers fail and you had the t.a.r.p. pass and the s&p 500 rallied 24% in 2 months. and then you got to q1 earnings, and the market peaked in january, i think 6th or so of 2009, and then after that 24% rally, earnings -- liz: right, immotion. >> -- the s&p went down 28% in the next 2 months. so that's, earning season's, obviously, coming up here in a couple of weeks, so that's what we'd be concerned about. liz: can i infer that you are shorting first republic as one of hose names? -- those names? [laughter] >> first republic's actually not available to borrow to be shortennenned. liz: really? >> so i'll answer it that way. [laughter] liz: well, yeah. because it's in this very difficult position right now. shares are down about 6.5%. all right, let's talk about offensive plays. where are you long? where do you see opportunity if, indeed, credit is tightening, which we know something like 50%

of banks recently tightened their credit, and that's just the beginning of this this cycle. so what do you like and what can withstand anything like that? >> sure. i think quite honestly, liz, it's going to be hard for anything to withstand it. but remember, we're a hedge fund so we have longs bounced against shorts. we do have some things we actually like quite a bit. i mean, one of our top five picks, you had me on earlier in the year, i saidst the treasury bills. you can get 4.6% in a 3-month t-bill. that's risk-free. that looks great -- liz: rick reider of blackrock was right on here talking about that. but any equity plays? >> yeah. in terms of equities, we like actually a lot of the commodity the-related companies related to oil and gas or copper or aluminum, that ilk, for a simple reason. remember, china was in a lockdown for three years, and, you know, the u.s., europe was in a lockdown for two years. they came out of that in december, then they had a covid surge in january, and their

economy's just starting to ramp up. so from our perspective, you haven't invested a lot in capacity the, esg policies have obviously kept a lid on expansion of capacity. but i see demand for commodities ramping up. and so oil services companies, those are pretty interesting. we like meant a that, you know -- meta, that was one of our top picks coming into this year. s the our favorite large cap tech stock because they're a product that competes with tiktok, it's doing quite well. if by some miracle the government actually does ban tiktok, that's even better for them. liz: and what about the fact that mark zuckerberg has decided, you know what? this is not the year of the metaverse,st the year of efficiency? does that help your case? >> well, yeah. and that's the big thing, the stock is just a couple of multiple points higher than the s&p 500. we think it's going to have the best earnings growth of any of big cap tech names, and you're getting it at a reasonable price with a core business doing well. and if you get the tiktok ban,

that's just icing on the cake. and so that's a name we like. we like semiconductors as well because unlike most of tech, you've got some of these companies revenues are down 30-40% year-over-year because their business has been slowing down since march of last year. and with all the inventory burn going on, you might actually see some of them hit bottom. micron technology reports tonight, that'll be an interesting one to watch. we're not involved many it, but we want to see the reaction because the results and the guidance are going to be horrible concern. liz: okay. but you colike intel -- yeah. you like intel and nvidia on hose two. dan, we have to run. we are very happy that you came here to, listen, take a victory lap, certainly, of having shorted them. i mean, look, this is the market. i mean, we don't the like to see companies collapse, but keep us posted on your next investments. thank you so much. >> thanks for having me on. liz: dan niles. we are coming right back. dow jones industrials down 90 points. charlie gasparino nose next.

♪ ♪ gasparino is next. a "let's dig in" day... mm. ...a "chow down" day... there

. .

♪. liz: you may have heard satori funds dan niles, he would short the stock. shares are not able to be gore

rowed or shorted. what is the latest on first republic? >> it's complicated situation. people that looked at the books say there is 12 billion-dollar hole in the company. assets worth a lot less and they're paying a lot of money in deposits. subtracting you have $12 billion missing. as of right now, what sources close to the bank are telling me. they are not shopping it, it is not for sale. you have to ask yourself is it not for sale because they think it's great business or is it not for sale because no one wants to buy it? from what i understand it is a combination of both. obviously there is a business here. they did a loan to mark zuckerberg as we know but he didn't pay a lot for that loan. that is one of the propblems. that is, they have a great sort of client base and deep wealth management decision. the problem is they made all the loans that are underwater right now and that hole, that

12 billion-dollar hole means nobody will buy the bank there unless there is government backstop. are you telling me to wrap in 30 seconds? liz: i didn't say anything. >> was that to make me crazy. liz: david dietze we want to make room for. >> you have to give me more than 30 seconds to do a hit, particularly talk about amc. liz: just used 30 seconds to tell me that but go on. >> i don't do 90 second hits. liz: oh, my god. >> in any event, in any event the 12 billion-dollar hole the government won't back it up unless it is in bankruptcy where the shareholders are wiped out. that is not tore sale. they have to fix it first. that is the first republic drama i recently broke. the second part is amc, because this stock is moving, both amazon, amc is moving in the opposite direction. it is off its highs. one of the reasons it is off its highs there is no deal imminent here. amazon is looking at something

with amc forever. from what i understand they want to buy it, buy it out of bankruptcy. they want to buy it as a distressed situation. that means you don't pay a premium. 2 1/2 billion dollar market cap. you have to check me. liz: 2.6. >> you don't pay three. you want to pay two or something less. that's what they're kind of talking about inside of amazon but we should point out they have been talking about for years and they still haven't pulled the trigger. good report by joe bruno that reignited talk about it. now you can wrap me. feel free. liz: thank you. get up out of the chair. make room for david. we can take the wide shot to show people. here comes david dietze. alibaba announcing plans to split it is business in six parts. the stock is popping 14%. each six unit exploring fund-raising or ipos. that stock is surging.

joining me with 10 billion under management, peapack david dietze miraculously replacing charlie gasparino in the chair. which company would get the same type of stock bump if they were to do the same thing? >> alibaba it is called the amazon of china. so let's go and look at the amazon of amazon in the united states. i mean i'm looking at amazon which is now frustrating so many investors ever since mr. jassy took over. coinciding with him the stock has been sliding. you look what they have, they have a great cloud business. they have a great e tailing department store but i fail to see synergies between the two. people at wall street, people looking at response to alibaba divided into not two but six, stock is moving higher. someone will say maybe we should think about separating or reorganizing. alibaba is not actually breaking apart.

>> separating. >> segmenting themselves so they could send them out to public -- liz: do you think it was a mistake for that stock split, amazon stock split? >> no, not really. i think when you -- liz: done nothing since then. supposed to make it more affordable. >> we never put too much stock as it were two stock splits. two five dollar bills for a 10. a lot of tech stocks have come down with higher interest rates, slowing down in the economy but certainly i do like amazon here and they could take a card out of the alibaba playbook. liz: you're supposed to buy good companies going through tough times that would be as you see from the one year picture amazon. quick thought on own on the regional bank crisis, if you think it is over if were a baseball game, what inning? >> hard to know. time for investors to take a long term position.

here is why. all the opaqueness so forth. who will do what next, what will depositors do. this is political problem as much as a financial problem. regional banks are asset class will not fail. politicos in south carolina, iowa, don't want to a loan, put up on your tie, trudge up to wall street to talk to jpmorgan. [closing bell rings] liz: david, thank you to you. s&p turns negative for the week. dow, nasdaq end the day with losses. that will do it for the "claman countdown." my friend larry kudlow is next. ♪. larry: hello, folks, welcome to "kudlow," i'm larry kudlow. remember back a couple months ago when mainstream media types were saying the new republican congress wouldn't get anything done and really wasn't all that important? well turns out just after a few months the gop congress is important and is