tv Barrons Roundtable FOX Business April 2, 2023 11:30am-12:00pm EDT
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reporter police and we need to make sure this is contained, historically miami beach had a rivalry between the residence in the tourist and the tourist have been winning that needs to be taken back. james: kristen, your take? >> as far as i'm concerned they should be shutting us down this is a result of an entire generation of americans who have never been told no, no you cannot vandalize property and hurt others know you cannot act whatever you way you want because you feel like it spring break has been a little bit crazy but it's getting a lot worse in recent years and i suspect this is a large reason why, i say shut it down. party is over, thanks to both of you and for our viewers gerry >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x atfs.
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jack otter: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. arc invest has a lot of ideas but can asset managers tech stocks growing to skyhigh valuations. i'm asking kathy wood. the fight over banning tiktok in the us. how other social media platforms can benefit. we begin with 3 things investors should be thinking about. tech stocks drove the market higher as investors looked beyond rising interest rates. banks stabilize but there's questions whether the worst is yet to come. walmart takes a few pages from the amazon playbook. what does that tell us about the broader market? my colleagues, ben levisohn, carleton glitch and jack hough that you are worried about banking and inflation and we miss the start of a bull market?
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>> it hit the low in september and it's like the breaking turmoil never happen. the market is looking at the fed saying rate cuts are going to be done, it's not a big deal and apple and other big tech stocks are going up again. this is the 2020-2020 one all over again. jack otter: that's a rosy picture but doesn't tell the story. ben: the nasdaq one hundred is in a bull market. the s&p gained 7%, the dow is up 0.4 and growth stocks, etf, the pure growth atfs. it tells you everything you know about big tech. jack otter: big tech is the flight to safety. how will this manifest itself? ben: the debt ceiling coming up
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exacerbated by donald trump's indictment. we have a problem, the banks are not blowing up anymore. we can assume they will be lending less. we watch for payrolls to see the job market holding up or if it is holding up too well. jack otter: been mentioned the banking crisis, seems to be stabilizing. carleton: it does seem to be stabilizing, it's worst showing since the onset of the pandemic. we will be seeing a little bit of noise in the sector. that's how they make their money with deposit costs going up. that will squeeze profits. the catastrophic shocks the last few weeks, it will be
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bumpy. that's going to be bumpy. jack otter: the pullback is not priced in in the fed's of your market. one specific area of the lending, a deep dive into commercial property lending. they may not be worth when the loan was made. carleton: a lot of office space not being used. when you look at major lenders, they underwrite those loans, generally better positioned, not seeing a lot of delinquency. jack otter: bank earnings coming up. carleton: it is about the talk and the forward outlook. it's not so much what big banks say. there's a lot of stability.
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they report later in april. jack otter: walmart has an investor day coming up, looking at amazon for some guidance. jack hough: they will talk about high margin advertising businesses and delivery service, making a lot of investments. investors want to know if they can grow the top line at 4% and can they grow back to operating profit? something more of 4%. it got an upgrade that investments are working, returning to growth, stock is 24 times earnings. you can buy it for less than 15 times earnings, sometimes 12 times earnings. in this market 24 times earnings, that's a good deal. jack otter: you don't seem excited about that.
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jack hough: philip morris international, their pitch is a smoke-free future, impressive feat for a company that sells cigarettes. they could do it, they got the swedish match that you talk between your cheek -- they've got -- you warm it, you don't burn it. smoke-free products, 90% of the business, could get up to 50% as they push it in the us. you split it off, and you sell it, now you have a smoke-free future. the other stuff could happen. it is 15 times earnings, an upgrade from jpmorgan. the market is 18 times earnings. we have a little banking crisis, we've got three weeks in between panics. seems expensive. 5% money markets.
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(fisher investments) in this market, you'll find fisher investments is different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? aren't we all just looking for the hottest stocks? (fisher investments) nope. we use diversified strategies to position our client's portfolios for their long-term goals.
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(other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions for you, right? (fisher investments) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest. (other money manager) so when do you make more money, only when your clients make more money? (fisher investments) yep. we do better when our clients do better. at fisher investments, we're clearly different. jack otter: innovative but volatile companies, paying off with 30% return in 3 months. joining me from park city, utah, cio kathy would -- cathie wood, thanks for being on the show. appreciate it. you are known for your thematic approach to investing, the stock selection on big picture themes. what is in the news is artificial intelligence. can you claim how ai might
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change the investing land sites beyond microsoft applications? >> check the box stocks, microsoft, nvidia and a few others. companies with not only artificial intelligence expertise but domain expertise and large proprietary data, the last is begging all the difference between winners and losers. tesla is the largest holding in our flagship funds and our autonomous technology and robotics fund, probably one of the biggest beneficiaries with artificial intelligence and it is the only auto manufacturer to design its own ai chip, it
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designed its own special-purpose chip and we do believe it is in the poll position to be the leader in a market called autonomous taxi platforms. if we are right, based on our research between now and 2030 autonomous platform revenues will approach $8 trillion, to $10 trillion from nothing now. huge business opportunity. jack otter: if you add up ford, volkswagen, doesn't add up to tesla now. if they dominate the future of autonomous taxis i get it but don't you think they are innovators of those other companies that could take some market share? >> we assume tesla will lose market share, not like they will own the whole market. like apple lost market share,
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the one smart phone and samsung came for real, it became more segmented. apple's market share dropped precipitously but it's share of profits is still enormous. we think this can happen in the auto market as well. tesla has more real-world driving data, billions and billions and billions of miles of data that all the other auto companies and tech companies involved in trying to get into this autonomous opportunity have so we think people are going to be very surprised autonomous taxi platforms take off at all in the next few years. what i also think people are not integrating into their models is the gross margin structure of an electric
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vehicle is in the 25% to 30% range. autonomous taxi platforms deliver margin opportunities in the 60% to 80% range. this is not an auto market. it is a technology market, artificial intelligence and over in the air software updates to determine improved performance. jack otter: a couple weeks ago, we had a guest who said i love cathie wood's analysis. sometimes you mistake innovation and growth for profits and value. what's your response to that? >> we have 5 year investment time horizon and we do believe all of our companies will be ebitda or positive.
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's analysis is short-term oriented. many are investing aggressively to capitalize on massive growth opportunities. the opportunities are going to scale $13 trillion in market value today, $200 trillion over the next 7 years and the profitability, just gave you an example, tesla going from 25% gross margins to 60% type margins when you combine software as a service platform so i think the profitability five years out is going to shock them. jack otter: it would make today's evaluations look cheap. bitcoin is on a tear after a rough 2022.
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you put up one. $5 million target for 2,030. how do you get to that valuation? what's the intrinsic value? >> this is a perfect time to ask that question. interesting that during a two week period when regional banks were imploding, going bankrupt, losing all or most of their market value bitcoin goes from 19,000, to 28,000. this is the moment we have been waiting for. out of the crisis of 2008-2009 when trust in the financial system was destroyed for a lot of people and we needed another crisis for the proof of concept. bitcoin is decentralized and transparent and many financial institutions are centralized.
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most of lamar. if they are not public they are opaque but even the public ones, you have to read deeply into the footnotes to understand they are held to maturity as securities, disproportionate amount of securities. jack otter: that is what killed silicon valley bank. >> that is right. shame on bank analysts for not catching is that. there were only two organizations that had a cell on silicon valley bank's for the right reasons. everyone else, there were almost 30 analysts who had a purchase, they were not doing their analysis. jack otter: it lived up to digital gold, thanks for your insights. the push to ban tiktok a
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jack otter: the push to ban tiktok is heating up despite failing in the senate, the fight is far from over. the ban does go through what impact would it have on other social media companies and us/china relations which are heating up ahead of kevin mccarthy's expected meeting with the president of taiwan? eric, thanks for coming on the show. can you give us a sense of the scale of this company? tiktok is the cool kid on the social media block. >> they are more than the cool kid, they are the big kid. you are talking about an application that has 150 million users in the us, one. 5 billion in the world not including china.
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this is a company valued as a private company in the range of $225 billion depending who is doing the counting. they will do more than $14 million in advertising, more than snap and pinterest and twitter combined. jack otter: a solution to this would be to sell to an american buyer. you've done some math on this. it's not as expensive as it sounds with a $250 billion valuation. >> that the valuation for the company, the chinese company that owns tiktok. if you carve out tiktok, the back of the envelope, it gets you to $50 billion but then you can back out some of that, 60% of it is owned by large
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institutional investors, american venture capital firms, probably 15 or 20 billion to make this an american company. jack hough: carleton: you have alexandria ocasio cortez and rand paul coming together on this point. i'm curious on the business side of it who would be the winners? >> there's a couple of obvious winners, at least 3 other apps that look like tiktok. the one that wins the most is meta which -- reels is a clone of tiktok you can find in facebook and instagram. these should boost their earnings by as much as a dollar a share if they were to take half the current tiktok
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traffic, they would be a big winner. youtube shorts is similar that would also benefit and so would snapchat which has a service called spotlight that looks the same. they would get additional traffic in the event. jack otter: if only liquidity was around to benefit. say there was a man, would there be retaliation? >> worrying about china retaliating, that's not very likely. apple is too popular with the chinese people and it is an important partner for china in terms of having factories where things get built but we are seeing a little bit of this. micron is the target of some secure ready issues. they are looking at the chips. while the united states is working on cutting ties with china, china is building ties
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with other nations. they will start using local currencies. it's a big deal creating a non-us future for china. jack hough: what is the special sauce for tiktok, you mentioned youtube shorts, what does tiktok do so well? >> they have a better piece of software, better algorithm to deliver to you the user videos you want to see. asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - are you a certified financial planner™? - i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®.
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>> not just because i love to shoot from the logo, that the code i live by. espn, the common perception is disney is looking to purchase the part of hulu it doesn't own and sell espn at some point. they could do the opposite. $18 billion if they sell the part of hulu that they have and use it to invest in new sports rights for the streaming service espn plus, building out the streaming service, with the premium tier that includes more. jack otter: hang onto sports, that's why people hang onto tv. let's go to actual ideas. i'm excited about carleton. carleton: one thing to note,
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pet owners will do anything for their pets. to look at the stock of this company, trading cheaper than it has historically, projected to grow earnings by 10.7% and big on the innovation track producing a drug that fights parasites which we don't want our puppies to have those. ben: looking at adidas. problems in china, problems with kanye west or black lives matter but the stock isn't acting like it has problems. looks like it is breaking out. pretty interesting here. jack otter: check out this week's addition of ... dr. michael youssef: hello, friends. welcome to the beginning of holy week,
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