a lot of barricades, barriers, all the rest of it. i think you will see crowds develop at the far end. police will be closing off the street pretty soon because the president, mr. trump, 2:15? >> 4:00 p.m. he will arrive at trump tower. tomorrow 11:00 a.m. set to arrive at courthouse for the 2:15 p.m. arraignment. should be done by 2:45 tomorrow. stuart: i would expect to see some crowds in that area there, trump tower, new york city. what a day it will be tomorrow. >> yep. stuart: we'll have eyes on the former president all day long. that is a fact. time's up for me. "varney & company" is just about over. "coast to coast" starts wait for it, now. ♪. neil: all right. wealthy quick, which is moving the markets more, donald trump heading off to new york to face his arraignment tomorrow or opec sticking it to the west when we least expected it today? what if we told you neither?

fox on top of two huge developments going down but stocks refusing to follow suit. they're rocketing despite sheikhs hitting the fan. we had to practice with that getting stingier with their oil. a president heading to new york being prepared for his indictment. we always come with very connected bill pulte. you might know the pulte name for housing. after he is done telling you why markets are doing what they're doing, you might want to extend that to investing f markets are ignore, the prospect of former u.s. president being indicted former georgia congressman doug collins has pretty good idea y maybe has nothing to do with the validity of that case but who is bringing the case. i'm neil cavuto. good to have you. we kick things off new quarter, new month, whether we have the

same type of drama we experienced in the first quarter. we know we're expecting a lot more of that drama this quarter. in fact this week. not one bit unnerved by that drama though, including tomorrow's a rather thanment of donald trump in lower manhattan. we have noted that he will quickly return home tomorrow after he quickly photographed, fingerprinted after the indictment. here is ashley. how does it look there? >> we're there on southern boulevard the main road of mar-a-lago on other side of the bridge. trump supporters, tons of media, three helicopters circling above. we're waiting for the motorcade to leave mar-a-lago to take him to west palm beach international airport where he jets to new york city. we expect that to happen leaving

the resort anytime now. he will arrive mid-afternoon, new york city, go straight to trump tower of course where he has a residence. tuesday the scheduled arraignment for 2:15 p.m. in manhattan supreme court. before judge juan merkin. prior to that, he will be photographed, fingerprinted, but not handcuffed. he won't do a perp work either. we're told no trump family members are expected in court for that arraignment hearing. what is interesting though, even those republican lawmakers who clashed with trump in the past are calling his arraignment by manhattan d.a. alvin bragg nothing but a hit job. listen to to marco rubio. >> we're talking about a prosecutor before he was elected promised to indict donald trump. basically using testimony of a convicted liar to charge the leading candidate for president against the president of his own party on the basis of a state misdemeanor, okay, that has

already passed the two-year statute of limitation. >> reporter: let's not forget low energy, jeb bush, also defending bush, defending donald trump saying it is very political, not based on justice. the arraignment itself expected to last 15 to 30 minutes. then donald trump will head back here to palm beach where he is expected to deliver some messages tomorrow night around 8:15 but exactly what that message will be, what details of the case will be discussed is up in the air because there is a real sense that perhaps the judge in this case could issue a gag order which would put a hold on donald trump, at least legally it would, but if anyone will fight a gag order that would be indeed donald trump. neil, back to you. neil: all right. ashley, great reporting my friend. i see you have a couple other people behind you. ashley webster on ground zero on all of this. across from mar-a-lago let's get the read what we can expect tomorrow with andrew mccarthy,

former u.s. district attorney. i notice the timeline on the former president's arrival. he gets there at 11:00 a.m. and the formal arraignment i guess not until around 2:00, 2:15. how are those hours accounted for in the interim? >> well a lot of this i think, neil, has to do with security. and people should understand that while this is a big day, unprecedented tomorrow, a security situation in that sort of little half square mile area of lower manhattan is not at all that unusual. i tried a terrorism case there in the 1990s where there was big threats and what have you. the nypd are very good at this. the secret service are very good at protection a lot of what seems like gaps in time are in order that they can shore up whatever security needs they need outside of the building and inside of the building. what should happen inside of the

building is the former president secret service protectee he will remain in secret service custody. he will surrender to the nypd and the investigators to the manhattan district attorney's office. he will be brought to a secured area within the building they will have secured well beforehand where he will be processed, he will be fingerprinted, photographed. he will be with his counsel. i think it is highly unlikely he will make any statements to the district attorney's investigators. he will be under indictment so they wouldn't be able to question him without his lawyers being present, and there is no reason to think his lawyers will allow him to be interviewed. he will be kept securely. he will not be brought to a holding cell. kept in the custody of the the secret service, nypd other law enforcement people. it should be a short court

proceeding. he will be arraigned on indictment. will plead not guilty. there is no reason to set bail. under new york law this is non-violent case. the bail is not issue here. he will be released on his own recognizant. we know which case he will be assigned to, which judge it is and off to the races. there will be motion to dismiss the indictment and what have you. neil: he getting everything a normal, someone who has been indicted will get, minus the handcuff thing, right? he won't be handcuffed? >> well, he won't be handcuffed, neil, but just to clarify on this, handcuffs are pretty common when the police have to make an arrest on the street for obvious reasons. but when you're in a situation, this is frequent in white-collar cases you're represented by counsel. you know you're under investigation. you're invited to surrender rather than be arrested on the

street. handcuffs are often not necessary in that scenario. some police agencies make it a habit of using them when moving the person place to place but they're often not necessary in these case is. neil: andrew, a lot of people, we'll talk to one coming up, former georgia congressman, well-regarded, bemoaning, attacking the prosecutor here. we don't know the details of these indictments 30 plus included here. it makes you wonder is there something in here we don't know, we might get a surprise from alvin bragg, other women, other checks, other payoffs that we might dismissing this too soon? >> well, anytime you are going to get something you haven't been able to read first, obviously there could be things in there you don't anticipate but you know our information about this, neil is pretty good

this is a case under investigation for many years by federal and state authorities. trump's lawyers had a lot of interaction with the district attorney's office. a lot of what we're hear something coming through the d.a.'s office this the attorneys. much of what we're also hearing comes from media outlets that are known to have exquisite sources within the district attorney's office. i would be surprised if we're surprised but i do take your point we haven't seen it yet and we obviously should keep at least some powder dry until we do. neil: now you're talking about cyrus vance, some other officials, doj, elsewhere who never pursued this case for whatever reason and alvin bragg did and has. now that could just be a matter of preference. he chose to when they did not. that is what is raising political hackles, but just your quick thoughts on that. is that uncommon to see a situation like this? how would you describe it? >> i think the most important thing that needs to be focused

on here, neil, is that it would be more accurate to look at alvin bragg as an elected democratic officeholder than a law enforcement official. this is not the federal government. this is not a situation where the prosecutor is appointed and then vetted by the senate to make sure he won't use his political, his law enforcement power against political enemies in a partisan way, at least that is what we hope to achieve. this is a system that is infused with electoral politics and an officeholder who gained office by campaigning that he would use his power against trump and i just think that needs to be openly and notoriously stated. neil: yeah. and they are stating it a good many who are opposed to this entire process. andrew, great catching up with you, my friend. andrew mccarthy on left-hand side of the screen. we're looking at mar-a-lago, president's palm beach home. we're having images out of palm

beach airport where the president's famous emblazoned plane is fueled up to take him to new york for his tomorrow arraignment. doug collins, sat on the judiciary committee. its ranking member. served in the air force reserve. served his country quite nobley. doug, you're not keen on the process, 30 plus indictments came with it but here is what it is. the president capitalized that. he raised more than five million dollars in the last 48 hours from this but reality is he will be indicted former president, first time it ever happened. what do you think the residual fact of that could be especially in light of some these other cases that are pending? >> well, exactly, neil. the impact of this will actually depend a lot, this new york case i don't think is impactful in the sense it is just the first. one getting most attention.

it is also as an did i andy talking about. what we know coming out of this indictment. it is probably one of the weakest cases that have been brought. we talked about a lot of this. this is from a prosecutor came in dropped felonies to misdemeanors, wouldn't prosecute misdemeanors. taking a misdemeanor has statute of limitations issues convert it to a felony. i think what donald trump is able to do here, for right now this is what is showing most americans feel like. they look across the spectrum at hillary clinton, hunter biden, how the feds have taken interest in trump last few years. there are two systems of justice. why are they going after this in light of everything else? that is the upside for donald trump. reality, alvin bragg brought indictments. the grand jury returned them. he caught the car. he will have to prove his case. there is no running from it now. alvin bragg, it is on him at this point. neil: you know it is mr. political of nature.

if you inculling me, asa hutchinson, former arkansas governor formally announced running for president. he was one of the few candidates who said this is bad news. donald trump in light of this, other legal developments coming up should quit the race. what do you think of that? >> look, i think, if you like donald trump, this is nothing except enhance that likability factor. this is, he has been fighting against the system. he says it all the time. they're not coming for me. i'm keeping them from you. a trump supporter base, 30, 40% more base depending where you are in the states. it is solidifying him more. as it goes on with other cases we'll see if that actually develops. what they're saying here, for folks who don't like donald trump. would like to see alternative for donald trump they will use the indictment, look he can't win independents, he can't win moderates this is a bad thing for the republican party that

would be the lean to get into the primary system. if they want to get in the primary system and run in that lean, god bless them. trump is strong in those leans. is that a lane possibly? >> we'll see. neil: looking at money donald trump raised, five million plus we're told over the last 48 hours, maybe owing to this indictment, i'm wonder whether there is machiavellian strategy on part of alvin brag in general they want donald trump to be the nominee because he is beatable, that this is all part of that? what do you make of that? >> well i would like to think alvin bragg seems to be, that smart politically but i'm not sure he is but it does appear that way. look, the biden administration, they played this up for the last 2 1/2 years. talk about the former president. they only speak of him when trying to draw a contrast. if they draw something out they draw donald trump up and the

problem for them they have got nobody but joe biden. their bench is so weak they have only got joe biden. they're trying to figure out how do we beat the republicans in the fall next year. donald trump is presenting a strong case. donald trump is presenting very much of a distinction between him and joe biden and the two administrations but also the same thing, the republican candidates are going to do. could it be looking hey we beat trump we already beat him before we don't want to deal with these others? maybe so i think this is just alvin bragg made promises he didn't keep. neil: you know, my crew will kill me but i always love when i get a chance to talk to you, doug, you georgia congressman, were, highly regarded in georgia politics. it is the georgia case among the investigations many analysts say could be the most tenuous for donald trump. did he try to influence the recount that was going on in georgia? i wonder what you make of that,

that that is really, whether you agree with the case in the premise or not, that's the one who watch, that is the oven-burner for donald trump and the worry for him what do you think? >> well it could be. i think, but here is something it looks like. for everyone talking about this being politicized, left saying it is not politicized look how basically a sieve it has been over grand jury, past few month, witnesses, leaks coming out, he will get indicted, next week, constant. notice what you have not seen out of atlanta, not seen really out of washington, exempt after special grand jury was over a foreman on the case got on tv, and for most part the district attorney in atlanta kept it quiet. i'm not saying it's good case or bad base, this new york case is much more done in publicity case and i will get donald trump.

the other cases we'll see how they development, what the actual indictments are. all these cases hinge on a lot of things that will be very, very hard to prove in court. neil: indeed. thank you, doug, always good talking to you, former congressman doug collins. we saw one suv, with president trump leaving mar-a-lago his florida home in palm beach county. we want to bring your attention to his waiting jet taxiing right now, not taxiing, all gassed up, ready to go in new york. will stay overnight at the trump tower his home in manhattan on fifth avenue. they have already cordoned that area off. they cordoned a lot of area off around palm beach international airport where his plane is. all of this to get ready for tomorrow's 2:15 formal arraignment in lower manhattan. he arrives there because of security concerns and the rest hours earlier, about 11 tomorrow

morning in new york. much of that is spent sort of being cordoned off from the press and throngs even the formal arraignment room tomorrow at that same courthouse. but again the president has already indicated he will go there. he will go through the rigors that everyone else does in a situation like this, be arraigned formally, fingerprinted, photographed. there will be no handcuffing of the former president. and then unless he is not allowed to speak out or say anything he will choose tomorrow night upon returning from new york to mar-a-lago to address the nation or at least to speak to his supporters. no doubt carried by a lot of networks, news and otherwise but all of that expected tomorrow. the drama beginning to unfold today as he leaves his mar-a-lago home and prepares to make history whether he likes it or not. stay with us.

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neil: all right. want to take you to palm beach, florida, right now. you're watching the trump motorcade now leaving mar-a-lago. ashley webster is there. he is in route for this arraignment happening in

new york tomorrow. ashley what can you tell us? >> reporter: i can tell you it lasted about three or four seconds. the trump supporters out here waving, one saluting to the cars. you couldn't see inside. they are all dark glassed vehicles, 10 in total flew by here into unique journey, a journey into history. we have not been here before, a former president criminally charged. out here pretty subdueded trump supporters waving their flags. people driving by, honking their support. other shouting throw him in jail, kind of that partisan affair here. now the journey begins, neil. headed to new york by mid-afternoon, straight to trump tower. tomorrow that remarkable scene we'll see with him being arraigned, 2:15 in manhattan supreme court tomorrow afternoon. then after all of that, after his fingerprinting, after his photographs taken, no handcuffs though, we believe, he will come

straight back here. he will deliver a speech tomorrow night, or delivering remarks as the press release said. exactly what kind of remarks we don't know. he could be under a gag order. that is it. he officially left his favorite home we're told in mar-a-lago. now he is going to face the music back in new york city. neil, back to you. neil: i do notice that maybe the one of the things, benefit of being a former president of course you can have this entourage with you, but the flip side that is not being a president, you have to wait at a red light. so there is that aspect. i'm wondering what you were seeing, ashley, about his return tomorrow? that is still on, right? >> reporter: right. neil: the judge can't hold him or keep him in new york? >> reporter: the likelihood of being held on bail is not going to happen. the secret service will have all of this worked out. his intention, barring any remarkable last minute developments to jump on the plane pretty soon after the

arraignment, be back here, holding that event at mar-a-lago tomorrow night. neil: all right, ashley, thank you for that. keep that shot up here. i want to go to alan knuchman, bull's-eye chief market strategist. we look at events like this. you're a guy looks at markets. opportunities. this is non-event for the market. not saying non-event for mr. trump, what he has to go through as the process unfolds. for the markets they're focused on other developments like oil, opec surprising us with production cut. this is not on their radar, right? >> yeah. barring any surprises no. we talked price, not policy, not politics. neil: right. >> the thought is most of the times it is already into the price but we can talk about the stock pop that we've seen in the last month after we largely been trading sideways for the last five months between 3800, 4200

in the s&p, we're starting to reach the top level once again. it will get very interesting as we come into earnings season which is what the focus is going to be two weeks from now. neil: you know, we look at this whole drama the way it is playing out. there are other trump cases not not an issue, fairly poorly paraphrasing what you said, i wonder with all the other cases build up, does it get to be? if republican nomination looks like raucous affair, if it isn't already, how do the markets respond to that? >> well, the reality is, that the volatility of the markets actually numerically is relatively low. we're back below the 19 level. we're double that just a couple weeks ago when we had -- neil: talking about the vix, volatility index, right? >> right.

exactly. so, that bank kerfuffle, we're half of that. markets are moving forward. markets move forward. all the news we know about is already factored in, barring any major surprises. these are topics that we've had a lot of discussions about. so technically, if this market can break out of this range we've been in for five month we would see the s&p at 4600 which is another 10, 15% above where we are now. so i believe in a lot of upside opportunities the way the market has reacted. more importantly, how it hasn't reacted. this has not shaken anything. even with the bank issue, it seems to be a very short term discussion, short-term problem. and also, you know we're at the end of the rate hike cycle that was last year. look where we are one year after the rate hikes started. s&p is down a whopping, not even

10%. so the markets have reacted pretty postively to all the potential issues that could have been a negative impact. neil: you know, looking at bond yields all of that, they have done a lot of the federal reserve's work, we talk about potential personalities for the market, former president, what he will go through with the arraignment tomorrow, even the present white house occupant and reaction he is getting for some of his economic fixes his critics say put us in a bigger fix, but the real attention tends to be on jerome powell and the federal reserve. i don't know how long that last. >> right. neil: give the fact the market rates which the fed have no control have gone down, could you make an argument that is the market's way of kind of doing the fed's work? >> right. they have gotten the result that they wanted. we've got 10-year note yield

which you're keeping an eye on, it is below 3 1/2% level. historically we talk about how low that really is. if you look at futures markets, you see futures markets 2024, rates get down to 3%, so forth when you go further out. so that is the market, those are the markets that the fed can control. the 10-year note yield is driven by supply demand. that is showing a lot of stability. if we sum everything up, real simple, markets are down the dollar, rates, inflation and, that is, those are positives for stocks. the markets are up are everything, everything is up in 2023. there is not really any marketplace even now with crude oil back at 80 level, cued oil has been trading between 70 and 90 for nine months. we're in the middle of the range of crude oil, but still off 40% highs from last year. that is what the fed to accomplish. wanted rates to stablize. they wanted prices to come down.

we've seen inflation come down. a lot of positives, let's see if we can see that follow through in the stock market. that is the next move i'm looking for. neil: alan, always great talking to you, my friend. sorry for the slight audio delay. we had alan knuckman, bulls bullseye option chief market strategist. >> thank you. neil: talking about the so-called contagion with banks, he had not seen evidence of that meanwhile on the screen, we're showing you donald trump leaving for palm beach international airport. he is going to board his right plane. it is emblazoned with the name trump on it, you might remember from the campaign days back in 2016. after that he was using of course air force one as president of the united states. but he is on his way there for the formal arraignment tomorrow in 34 counts that are part of a massive indictment against the

former president. a lot of it stemming from payments allegedly made to a porn star. reports there may be other women in that indictment, other payments. no way of knowing for sure. but as you can see as he arrives at the airport markets are unaffected by this the dow for example is up, more to have the economy in the goldilocks phase here despite the threat from opec to cut production, lift oil prices the overall economy is fine. go to bill pulte, pulte capital ceo. you know the pulte name for real estate but bill is uncaney observer of the financial scene. bill, as we see the drama unfolding i wonder about what the lacks of market impact period? i'm not saying they're disinterested in this. i'm told this is playing out on

a lot of screens on the floor of the new york stock exchange but they're more focused on other things. maybe you could step back and help us? >> yeah. i think, day-to-day obviously this is probably not going to matter too much in the short term. i think though, neil, saw lawoffs with mcdonald's, call it s&p 500 companies really jimming costs, i think this only increases the tension in our country. so maybe we're not seeing it necessarily in the markets today but let's say 50% of the population, no matter what you think, thinks one thing about this and the other 50% thinks another thing. on top of it you have layoffs going on, neil, record profits for many companies. it will be very interesting to see what happens with the unemployment picture. i think that is really what to watch for out all of this, instead of day-to-day stuff with this. neil: you know a lot of people look at events like this, maybe we in the media get ahead of

ourselves, bill. i don't, i understand people in the media. i'm kidding. one thing i notice, they worry about a constitutional crisis or one that there is a strong feeling on many on the right this is an unfair abuse, weaponization of the system to hurt a former president. others on the left say, no, no, it is not being weaponized enough but, the back and forth and the battle over whether this ultimately, with all these other investigations potentially takes him out of the presidential race. we then start talking about other dynamics. how do you look at it? >> i look in terms of the market. if we just focus on that for a second, neil, i think your point is exactly right. 50% of market participants whether in the stock market or people who buy products will be affected by this some way or another. you couple this with maybe some uptick in unemployment, maybe you couple this with some inflation, i think this can

actually, you know, in a very small way have impact on the economy. again in isolation, neil, i don't think this really moves things but when you add totality of these things up, just another, call it notch in the belt so to speak for 50% of americans who view certain things one way and the other 50% view it a different way. neil: but you know you hit on something that was far more basic and real than anything else we see playing out dramawise right now over a florida highway, that is these layoffs that mcdonald's is poised to make and news ubs might slash up to a third of workforce after the credit credit merger. that is a lot of layoffs. >> that is a lot and you've seen it from a lot of fortune 500 companies. we actually started, neil, because our legacy family business pulte had layoffs.

we figure out how they can be dynamic at this time. to your point, neil, the economy is pretty strong. unemployment hasn't ticked up. what we have to be careful about, those of us fortunate to be successful helping those laid off at times. to your point about constitutional crisis or otherwise, that can turn very quick if people aren't very careful right now in our opinion and that is why we're trying to help people with layoffs. i think probably a lot of these big s&p companies are just at the beginning stages of some layoffs. you know, neil as we know the whole buyback debate. you lay people off, put money back into buybacks, that is another notch in the belt i'm talking about with 50% of the population. neil: yeah. that old market law, markets abhor uncertainty and we started with relatively small numbers in layoffs, in percentage terms they were always small. in percentage terms they're getting pretty big. in the case of ubs that is a

third of the workforce. the other unknown again is this, as we see donald trump arrive now to board his airplane to head to new york for this arraignment. you could make an argument here, uncertainly about layoffs, whether they're accelerating that could impact the market. uncertainty about potential leadership battles in this country that will materialize maybe next year. maybe a different year than what we're seeing going on right now. this might be preview of coming attractions. i'm wondering, the markets handled that uncertainty remarkably well. if you look at first quarter, bill, where we started and where we ended it, very little movement, nasdaq up 17, 18%, you would say whole dull non-event quarter we know anything but so play out this one, what you see happening? >> there is a lot of variables, neil. you mention ad few of them. it is to your point fascinating that you have the rate in

increase in interest rates things stayed together as much as they have. what you're noticing. at same time markets handled it pretty well you have the layoffs going on. i think we probably won't see, neil, until we get nine or 12 month through this year, to really know what the effects of these interest rates are, whether it hits unemployment. whether it hits any so-called constitutional crisis. i'm pretty sure we can say one thing, the economy is pretty strong and it will be yet to be determined how all of these things, maybe in isolation which are not big events all add up or if we just keep humming along. neil: bill, you ought to stick to this money thing. you know it very well. i always love talking to you. thank you very much, my friend. bill pulte, the name behind pull at the -- pulte capital, folks in total disarray when they find out they're losing their job.

on your screen we told donald trump arriving at palm beach international airport. he had one or two others ones with him. this is organized by the secret service. this is something he is afforded the rest of his life of course but in this case making arrangements with new york prosecutors office, they're handling details preliminarily concerned with his safety, those around him. they're calling shots about him getting into the courthouse, getting out of the courthouse, getting arraignment set up, sew can leave. when it is done tomorrow, probably just a 15 minute affair all said and done, he can leave, go back to florida. if things go as former president plans address the nation or speak on this tomorrow from mar-a-lago. i want to go to scott bold inch, former d.c. democratic party chairman, kind enough to join us. scott, we're exploring politics of this, even on financial show

it bears mentioning a lot of mon any of bets that this will move the race a lot of money coming donald trump's way, better than five million dollars as you probably heard, as he garners rally around the old boss type of support system here. >> yeah. neil: do you think those in your party, scott, might rue the day this indictment started coming together? that it might be perfectly valid regardless of you know, those in other positions who didn't pursue this particular case but might not have the effect democrats hoped, what do you think? >> well i know the democrats were savoring trump running against joe biden. as you know i'm a former prosecutor from the manhattan district attorney's office. i've been doing white-collar criminal defense work for over 32 years and as a former

prosecutor the political discussion about donald trump and the d.a.'s office i think misses the mark. this is very serious. for the first time in his career, in his life, his liberty is at stake and that psychologically will have impact on him regardless of the bluster, regardless what his press conference later in the day or tomorrow if you will. money dries up if you will because politically democrats or republicans, doesn't really matter, in the end they want to back a winner because it is the biggest prize in american politics, the white house. i don't think the democrats will rue the day that alvin bragg brought the indictment, politics really don't get into play here, they really don't. perceptionwise, maybe. remember if atlanta bring as second indictment i think new york indictment allows al atlanta to bring an indictment on easier political landing. if the feds bring an indictment with regard to the secretive documents he has got a real problem. he can't stay in this race.

i'm not prognosticating but what i'm saying is when your liberty is at stake, you're charged criminally, psychologically, practically, you have to stay out of jail. you have got to preserve your liberty and you've got to beat these criminal charges and put the government to the test. that is really what he is facing, separate and apart from the politics we've been talking about. neil: yeah, you might be right, a number of others passed on pursuing this particular case. there are things in there, scott, maybe to your point we don't know, maybe some surprises in that you know, 30 plus count indictment that we don't appreciate that will come to light tomorrow. >> yeah. neil: but the consensus is there was a democratic push here to help rally the republican base around donald trump, get him nominated because the view was he is the one joe biden could beat. it might be more problematic taking on ron desantis, let's say or others. i don't know if that is the case.

i know as you and i have talked polls are fleeting and change as quickly as they come out. having said that could this boomerang on them if this is the whole enchilada, this particular case weak as it seems to stand to a number about lawyers, not these other cases, they don't come to fruition before the election, but what do you think? >> with alvin bragg, i know alvin bragg, i've been in that office years ago, let me just say this, it may have worked out for the democrats vis-a-vis boomerang effect, alvin bragg, brought this case, trump company and cfo have been indicted an convicted, right? that changes the narrative. if there are 30 or 40 counts in this indictment which has been publicly reported you have more than stormy daniels. maybe that scenario with alvin bragg bringing indictment helps the democrats but politics i just don't believe politics, it was a private political push for. neil: didn't cyrus vance, jr. have the same case and others have the same case?

democrats all and they didn't pursue it? >> well at the time cyrus vance was bringing the case they certainly did not but this case is evolving. there is always, this investigation has been going on. alvin bragg had a lot more information having indicted the cfo an indicted and convicted cfo and trump company. that is where the business fraud, financial fraud eminate from. watch and see what the indictment is unsealed and what is there. stormy daniels may have not be there. if it is there, it will be a small indictment of the charges, of 20 or 30 counts. it will be business fraud piece. it will be a dark cloud over republicans and donald trump because this indictment will lay out a criminal enterprise. if he does that, there is a lot that could change politically. we won't be talking about impact of the race. we'll talk about whether donald trump can beat this case or not. we just haven't seen the

indictment. neil: you know, he overcome a lot, right? he survived two impeachment votes. >> never criminally. never criminally. neil: this is first, you're absolutely right. >> a different ballgame, man. neil: there is civil, couple civil cases pending. you're quite right, but he always seems to be like the you know, guy who gets through it all, the teflon candidate. are you saying this is the velcro, this is the one that is going to stick to him? >> that's correct. the criminal cases always stick if they're brought the right way and there is enough evidence. give the scrutiny, i would have a hard time briefing the manhattan district attorney's office would bring a case whereby it wouldn't be, they wouldn't be able to stand on the strength of the case. if there is more than stormy daniels in indictment they have a paper trail that will support business fraud. that fraud section of that office right there is second to none, whether talking about the federal prosecutors or the state

prosecutors here, would be state, i think it will take a lot of time, money, energy, not just with their lawyers but donald trump to beat this back. this is very serious. i know we usually talk politics, as you know, as a white-collar criminal defense lawyer i have represented elected officials before, including those who were run aring for office when they were under indictment this is very difficult process. you have a pr strategy, a political strategy, a litigation strategy and all three of those strategies are not consistent or applicable to one another and it gets tough. in the end if your liberty is at stake, the legal strategy has to dominate it may impact negatively the political and pr strategy. donald trump needs to stop talking. he won't but i can tell you his words will be used against him in court. neil: should democrats stop talking jen psaki -- >> both sides are raising money that is exactly right.

>> hey, they are. yeah. absolutely. but only donald trump's liberty is at stake. neil: go ahead finish that thought. >> only donald trump's liberty is at stake. republicans and democrats can talk all they want, raise all the money they want. we'll have to keep watching it and see. neil: they are doing just that. scott, always enjoy talking to you. scott bolden, former d.c. democratic party chairman. i forgot was in that office, knows the legal process. we can't comment on indicts we don't know that will come to fruition tomorrow. we'll take a quick break here. donald trump is on his way to new york. not for a little vacation. leaving his mar-a-lago home to prepare for his formal arraignment. first time this ever happened to a former president to be indicted on criminal charges. of course the trump people, republicans in general, almost to a man or woman saying it is a political setup, entirely unnecessary, abuse of the legal system. it is what it is. he will be arraigned tomorrow.

he is leaving tonight. overnight at his trump tower off of fifth avenue where they have already cleared the streets and down to the lower manhattan courthouse where he will be going tomorrow for that arraignment where they're preparing to do just the same. stay with us. more after this for back pain, i've always been a take two and call in the morning guy. but my new doctor recommended salonpas. without another pill upsetting my stomach, i get powerful, effective and safe relief. salonpas. it's good medicine.

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neil: all right. you're looking at palm beach international airport right now. donald trump's private plane taxiing on the runway soon to take off for new york. you can't miss it when you come to palm beach international airport. that is parked prominently off the major runway, taking off when he took off he had quite a few people with him for the arraignment in new york. normally these are not market moving events or but still carried on monitors, on sets on big board, commodities exchange, they're human like us. this is enthralled by developments like this. is first of all, by u.s. former president dealing potentially with criminal charges. first time we've seen that in american history but the big issue right now in our country, this drama notwithstanding certainly what is happening on the market front with the dow up 250 points, despite opec

tightening the oil spigot a little bit by a million barrels a day, that led to higher oil prices, affected airline stocks but also coming at a time when people are wondering whether this debt ceiling thing ever gets involved anytime soon. we're up against the brink. we're told we don't have a heck of a lot of time. mark zandi, moody's analytics with us chief economic analyst. minus trump drama unfolding it is uncertainty, we don't know how this all ends up, markets abhor uncertainties but this is not higher uncertainty, they have more immediate needs, right. >> neil, agree with that. it is hard to connect the dots between what is going on with the former president and the economy. markets are focused on lots of other things. you mentioned the oil prices, opec decision, probably the most

top of mind today. then of course we've been engulfed in a banking crisis and debt limit you mentioned. so there is a lot of other issues i think investors are focused on, the travails of the former president are probably not on the list. neil: talk about some other open-ended questions. a lot of people are now saying there, was an interesting piece i think in "barron's" over the weekend said we might be through the worst of it. i'm over simplifying it but that, we seem to have dodged a bullet. i'm thinking to myself, well, maybe we did but is it too soon to say that? >> when you say dodge a bullet for the economy broadly you mean? i didn't see the "barron's" piece. yeah, well i think the economy is holding up incredibly well, highly resilient despite all of the slings and arrows everything else thrown at it. premature to conclude what kind of damage the banking crisis

will cause. i'm sure we see tightening up of bank lending standards, businesses to invest, consumers to spend, will slow the economy. at this point it feels like the damage should be manageable, digestible, weren't push the economy into recession. that is something to watch. i think with reasonably good policy making here by the fed, talk about what that means in some, a little bit of luck, neil. we just got to get through this without getting nailed by something more significant. i think we have a fighting shot to get through this without experiencing recession, the economy does have couple things, a few things going for it that are certainly providing a lot of resilience. that is very encouraging. neil: yeah. you know wondering this debt ceiling thing, we always take it to the break, maybe i'm showing my age, mark, more often than not, take it to final minutes, we dodge a bullet.

>> right. neil: one of these days it will not be that way. i harken back to 2011 when we avoided it but i still think s&p at the time downgraded our debt because of all the craziness before it. could you see something like that happening? >> yeah. this, i'm with you. i've seen a lot of debt limit battles over the years. been right there with you, 2011 one stands out for being particularly problematic. a lot of market turmoil, s&p did downgrade the debt from aaa. this feels like a potentially could be more serious, this debt limit battle shaping up here. by our calculation the treasury will run out of cash to pay all the bills on time by mid-august. so i suspect, lawmakers will come back after the july 4th break, things will heat up pretty significantly. the politic in d.c., as you know better than i, are pretty vexed,

given the makeup in the house and kind of the difficulties i think house republicans will have getting things together, passing a piece of legislation, passing any legislation is hard. very hard passing a piece of debt limit legislation is really, really hard. neil: absolutely. >> so, yeah, i think you could construct a scenario with reasonable probability that we come back after july 4th, things really heat up. they take it right down to the wire. i can't imagine lawmakers going over the cliff not paying someone on time whether a bondholder, social security recipient, electric bill for federal building in omaha i can't imagine what that would mean for economy and financial markets but certainly something that creates a lot of anxious moments as we lead up to the mid-august date. neil: yeah, it is scary. hopefully it doesn't get scary

ier. great talking to you, mark. dow up 220 points. history in the making here after this.

neil: all right, want to take you to brian brenberg and the bug min show folks -- big money show folks. brian: hello, everyone, i'm brian men brenberg -- jackie: and i'm jackie deangelis. welcome to "the big money show is."