away as we seem to be seeing here, what does that mean, do you think, for american society, for the republic itself? >> well, they believe as deists, they weren't necessarily true believers or on observant christians, but the belief in religion was connected to patriotism and even fertility. ask is we see all of those in danger. long term i think ben's right, it's very disturbing. gerri: well, that's it. sorry to end on that note this week, but my great thanks to victor and ben. i'll be back next week here on "the wall street journal at large." have a blessed passover and is a very happy easter weekend. thanks for joining us. >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etfs.

jack otter: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. banks are tightening lending standards in the light of silicon valley bank's collapse. what this means for inflation and recession risk. i ask chief economist torsten slock. could be higher prices at the pump and a company is revolutionizing the way donated organs are delivered. we begin with 3 things investors are to be thinking about right now. stocks and the short holiday week mix. how will the fed react to the latest jobs report. gold is nearing a record high, stocks are poised to rise more than the commodity itself. good news for those purchasing a new car but the same can't be said for used cars. on "barron's roundtable," my colleagues, andrew bary, carleton glitch and jack hough. stocks are sending one message,

bonds sending another. the bond market is smarter, what do you say? carleton: the old saying is don't fight the fed. the bond market isn't doing it. we are looking to a slowdown in the back half of the year. the stock market ever optimistic, we had a mixed result, the stock market trading 18 times earnings, we will look past the recession that may happen but we feel good about it. got to lean on caution. jack otter: it goes up into the 20s. what do investors do? carleton: assuming we had a downturn, they are looking at basics, utilities, healthcare, consumer staples. there will be a drastic drop in demand and a slowdown. the other way to play this is

to look at companies that are able to grow their dividends. maintaining a high yield is not the gain, the company is looking at the horizon and saying with everything going on we can afford to pay shareholders more. some companies have done that. constellation brands, fedex, tj x, the parent of t.j. maxx. jack otter: what are you looking to this coming week? carleton: we are looking at banks. earnings pick up at the end of next week. i think a lot of the bad news is priced in. it will be a choppy season, looking at profitability of banks, a lot more attention on balance sheets, wall street is not used to looking at that. the results will be messy. and we get an inflation principle, looking to see inflation slowing down. the fed likely having more.

jack otter: you've been looking at the ultimate defensive play. andrew: it is around $2000 an ounce driven by lower interest rates which reduce the appeal of bonds which an alternative to go. love you on the markets, the fight against inflation, is also good for gold. jack otter: not so much the commodity but stocks. andrew: gold outperformed the stocks. the leaders are mining company, gold corp. i would consider them. reasonably attractive and 2 or 3% dividend yields. jack otter: over the long-term gold is not a great investment.

jeremy siegel goes back to 1801. since the 80s, inflation hasn't done much. is it more of a trade? andrew: it creates nothing. buffet is a big critic. it's a hedge to store value and government can't print more of it. there's a benefit to that. jack otter: i bought a gently used car and if somebody t-boned me. you say don't cover lightly used, go for a new car. jack hough: my car might be beating the stock market. it's a midmarket car, $40,000, purchase price, worth $26,000. i'm looking at comparable prices, $75,000 over that. i am 29% on where i should be.

a lot of people are doing that and that creates a constrained supply of vehicles. the publisher report, $20,000 vehicles, nearly extinct, $25,000 vehicles next in line. i asked what this means for dealer stocks, used car dealers are in trouble because they can't get their hands on decent prices. we will hear from car max this coming week, new car dealers are in better shape for discounting, inventories getting better. is top picks, group the bonn automotive and penske. jack otter: obviously i should purchase it out. someone is shopping for a car. jack hough: new car prices are up 24% since i least mind. sound like a lot. for 14 years before that, a

total of 3%, they flatlined for a long time. we are making up for a long time of stagnant prices. jack otter: banks are tightening lending standards. will the credit crunch help the fed extent which inflation? that is next paradontax blood when you brush could lead to worse over time. help stop the clock on gum disease now. parodontax toothpaste... ...is 3x more effective at removing plaque bacteria, one of the main causes of bleeding gums. parodontax. the gum experts. your wyndham is waiting. ♪

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jack otter: the federal reserve watches the strong labor market, other economic signals are flashing a slowdown. apollo economist torsten slok says this inflation episode will soon be over. he joins the now. thanks for coming. a bold statement will be music to a lot of people's ears. let's start with what we just saw friday with the jobs

numbers and other things last week, suggesting the economy starting slow. >> we had some economic data suggesting the economy in rebound, the manufacturing sector, in recession, that's a reading where the indicator is on the other side of growth and ism for services that was lower-than-expected. we also got data for job openings which was worse than expected and the employment report which was a bit worse than the last few months but reasonably strong. wage inflation coming down, job growth at 36,000. reasonably strong. the economy is gradually at this point. jack otter: an interesting piece in my inbox, some parts of the economy are more sensitive to interest rate. certain jobs you don't feel it for a long time.

>> when the fed began to raise interest rates in march of last year we saw interest rate sensitive part of the economy slowdown, housing requires financing, the auto sector and spending, also requires financing. those responded quickly, it only makes 20% of gdp. 80% of gdp, going to restaurants, flying on airplanes, not as sensitive to interest rates. the sequencing of which part of the economy are stock market are impacted by interest rates going up. if this turns out to be the case, the fed started hiking rates, it's taking a bit longer than i would have expected in getting the economy to slow down. we are getting to the point the slowdown is starting to work.

jack otter: the fed is watching wages. there is a concern that if people get paid more they will pay more, higher prices, the wage price spiral. are we seeing signs that that's cooling good? >> the employment report shows last month, they mention average hourly earnings meaning wages, they went 5% and it is 4. 2. there is a significant decline over the last several months in wage inflation. we are at a level that is innovative compared to where we were by 2% during the pandemic but wage inflation is coming down because of an increase of 4 million people joining the us economy over the last 2 and a half years. a number of factors are helping, particularly leisure and hospitality. and we are helping and assisting the fed, keeping wage inflation more in check.

jack otter: workforce participation creeped up a little bit and bad news or good news, banking turmoil means lending centers ratcheted up less money flowing into the economy. what does it mean for markets? >> the last 12 months, in economic data, living through first the effects of fed hikes. the fed is raising rates over the last few months and the economy is responding to that. a few weeks ago, you add on top of the slowdown, regional banking crisis where the banking sector is pulling back gradually in terms of that. we don't know how much lending will be tightened but the big picture, the economy was in the process of slowing down. if you add to that the banking crisis that increases the risk the slowdown could be faster. jack otter: what do you do as an investor?

>> for the next 3 quarters, gdp growth will be 0. that's important for investors in the s&p when you think about markets. if the expectation is gdp growth is 0 over the next 2 or 3 quarters, we will have 0 growth in consumption, 0 growth in business spending and 0 growth in hiring. demographic reasons why it could be a bit higher. maybe the third quarter, the answer to your question is investors should prepare for slow growth environment and worker growth environment, setting us up for downside risks to the economic data. jack otter: one more question, in 6, 8, 12 months, what do you see through your crystal ball? >> all the things we talked about so far, if we ask the question what will the world look like in 6, 9.12 months, we should be aware the things we

are talking about will blow over. inflation not be the government it is today or interest rates in 12 months at the levels we are having today, regional banking crisis in 12 months like we had today. investors should take this opportunity in private and public markets and say what are the opportunities around these issues, particularly the private environments, private equity, if you wait until inflation is back at the fed's target of 2%, markets will at that point be a lot higher. jack otter: torsten slok, you packed a lot in. thanks for being here. opec announced production cuts this week. what it means at the price at the pump, that is next (fisher investments) it's easy to think that all money managers are pretty much the same,

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jack otter: gasoline prices increase after opec announced a production cut of one million barrels a day. what does it mean for the fed as it battles inflation and how much will you shell out at the pump? joining us is dentin sequinanna. i assume we will pay higher prices. >> there's two schools of thought here. first, when the biden administration said they wouldn't refill over spr or take steps toward filling it, prices were down around $70. it was supposed to be a floor for the market. the saudis and the rest of their opec counterparts, you want to set a floor? we will. the second idea is opec has a

look at oil demand and a great look at it, not seeing great things out of china as far as reopening their concern, the growth in chinese demand might be further down the line, might not be as fast as originally thought. there are two schools of thought why they did this. jack otter: how high do you see oil prices going. >> anywhere from 64, 8250 ati prices in 2023. gasoline formulation is switching from winter to summer grade. jack otter: you have been kind of negative on the energy sector efforts huge run up and you were right. energy hasn't done much. what do you see?

exxon mobil, is there a boost to their profits? andrew: i'm not a big fan of energy stocks. natural gas prices have collapsed. exxon earnings are down 20% this year. stock is up 40%. jack otter: the journal published the idea that exxon is eyeing a purchase of pioneer? andrew: it may mean the capital discipline maybe eroding. i'm not sure why exxon is bothering with this. any deal by exxon will be opposed by the biden administration, the antitrust team there. biden administration hates big oil, it will impose any deal on that. jack otter: this complicates the fed's calculus, higher energy prices feed into higher energy prices. it is next to be thinking, we

will raise interest rates. if you reduce demand, it will cut again on that. carleton: opec put a floor on oil prices complicating the fed's job. the preferred inflation measure tends to exclude energy, doesn't mean they don't pay attention to energy prices because energy prices are an input for goods and services we all pay for. the fed has to navigate a lot of tricky things. employment data, inflation, impact on the banking crisis. jack otter: not easy shoes to be in. carleton referenced the feed in prices, what industries are hurt the most? jack hough: airlines. from an investor standpoint, you don't need higher fuel prices for airline stocks to stink. they stink for different reasons or no reason.

history has shown that. next thing is consumer stocks. energy intensity of the typical american family has fallen over decades. more people staying at home. some say higher gasoline prices will be fun but they won't hurt as bad as they once did. look at profits for refiners, they could get crimped in the near-term. long-term they recover and to refine crude oil we made tremendous amount of heat that comes from natural gas which is cheaper in the us than the rest of the world so that a key the key long-term event. jack otter: what can we do to increase supplies of oil? should this country be pumping more and can we pump more? >> the latest data points to highest production levels since march 2020. with 12.5 million barrels a day. we could go up a little more but not much more, another 3,000 barrels a day.

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♪ ordinary etfs. go to foxbusiness.com/"barron's roundtable". jack otter: the only thing i know about organ transplants is taking my kids to the movie rat race and someone drop something out of a car and dropped it into ice. jack hough: i haven't seen it. i'm looking forward to it. trans max group is an early-stage company that's not yet profitable.

it keeps donor organs viable for hearts, livers, lungs. big words like extra profusion. i call apart on a cart. it is still beating and functioning. it could double between this year and next. this comes from the chief equity analyst at sam hill invest of management. it was his idea, and then you go up. jack otter: i have actionable ideas, when we look at financial advisors they are doing very well right now. carleton: they've been working for this decade for more than a moment. you look at what their stock has done this year, it is about flat, down 20%. compared to its history, it is

well worth it. andrew: i would say to purchase hurts, the industry is in good shape. the smaller players owned by the big guys, hurts was around 15, stock down 40%, no dividends should be paying one. this company should be bought by berkshire hathaway if it is ever put for sale. jack otter: great ideas. to read more checkout this week's addition of barron.com. have a wonderful easter or (announcer) the following is a paid presentation furnished by rare collectibles tv, llc. (music) (announcer) our country was founded on life, liberty,

and the pursuit of happiness.