flat, down 20%. compared to its history, it is well worth it. andrew: i would say to purchase hurts, the industry is in good shape. the smaller players owned by the big guys, hurts was around 15, stock down 40%, no dividends should be paying one. this company should be bought by berkshire hathaway if it is ever put for sale. jack otter: great ideas. to read more checkout this week's addition of barron.com. have a wonderful easter or pa far up your ass -- >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is maria

bartiromo's "wall street." maria: happy weekend to all. welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. happy easter weekend. i'm maria bart row mow. bartiromo. china ramps up threats as political uncertainty in taiwan adds to u.s.-china techs. congressman rob whitman was in california for the meeting with the president of taiwan this week. he'll join us on that and more. then the march jobs report is out slightly below expectations, what it means for the economy and your money with the bear trap's report founder larry mcdonald. plus, house republicans are fighter off a subpoena in the trump case. who might be next? don peebles on the future implications of former president trump's indictment and his look at real estate and the economy today. but first, china is fuming, i vowing to take forceful measures after a coalition of u.s. lawmakers went to taiwan to meet with the vice president. this after house speaker kevin

america car think's historic meeting with the president of taiwan in california. the chinese slapping sanctions on both the ron reagan presidential library -- ronald reagan presidential library and the hudson institute for hosting the event. joining us is virginia congressman rob whitman. congressman, thanks very much for being here. you were there in california with kevin mccarthy and his visit with the president of taiwan. can you tell us what happened? >> yes. it was a great bipartisan meeting, maria, and we had great discussions about the threat that taiwan faces from china, the things that we need to do together to make sure that we face that threat. also understanding, too, the resolve of the taiwanese people. she was very, very forthright with what was in their minds as well as the minds of friends and allies in the region. so it was a very, very productive meeting, and it was very sobering too about the challenges we face. maria: well, i thought kevin mccarthy's comment was really

spot on when he said, look, i'm speaker of the house, i'm not the general manager of the houston rockets, i'm not going to listen to what the ccp tells me another. was that part of the issue behind his toughness there, that the ccp tried to do everything possible to get him the to not do this meeting? >> i thought the speaker was spot on, just as you said, maria. it is typical of a bully, of a communist government that's used to telling its people what to do, you know? we are a constitutional republic where we have freedoms, and those freedoms are carry to us, and that's what wish -- are dear to the us, and that is what distinguishes us from china. china cannot bully us or tell us what to do. we are a free and open society, we are not a communist nation like china. maria: i mean, it feels like the chinese communist party is winning. they've been stealing intellectual property, you know, for decades. now they're trying to appear like the power broker of the

world, bringing the saudis together with the iranians, trying to be a peace broker between russia and ukraine. all the while putting surveillance in place in america, surveillance balloon, tiktok, etc. >> well, the aggressive behavior that china's pursuing around the world -- and remember, maria, it's not just strategically, it's not just in the military realm, it's in the financial sectors, it's in every aspect of what we deal with in the united states. china's trying to take advantage of that. and they're doing that from the standpoint of seeing the united states as being weak. and they are looking to exploit that weakness. and the thing that we must do is to stand up to china. and the only thing that a bully understands is someone that will stand up to them. and xi jinping is a bully. and our effort needs to be to stand up to them and to make sure too that we make the right moves. listen, we can't completely isolate ourselves from china. this is different --

maria: right. >> -- from the cold war. but we have to streakically isolate ourselves. we have to make sure we are producing our own rare earth elements and critical minerals. those are things that can help us strengthen the united states and assure that we are not going to be dependent upon china and where china will ultimately have control over us that will lead to our overall weakness. maria: well, one of the issues is the corporate sector. they want to sell to 1.4 billion people. do they not understand the national security issues? what can you tell us about the meeting that took place this week with technology ceos? disney's ceo, bob iger. did it penetrate into the corporate sector that that are -- there are national security concerns here, it's not just economic issues? >> well, it does. and those businesses are also having to deal with china's effort to heavily regulate them. and and also to herbally ask --

essentially ask them to hand over their intellectual property to be able to exploit that, to eventually produce what those countries are producing or companies are producing there in china. maria: right. >> i think it is, overall, realization by those business leaders that you can't cobusiness with china on china's terms. if you co, then you strengthen china and weaken the united states. maria: meanwhile, the biden administration releasing its review of the botched 2021 afghanistan withdrawal where 13 u.s. service members lost their lives. the administration handed out this 12-page report just 10 minutes before the press briefing, and the national security council spokesperson, john kirby, says that they're proud of the work that they did in kabul. and they blame the trump administration for the fallout, once again it's donald trump's fault. your reaction. >> the report is just incorrect. if you take the words of the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, general milley, when he was asked for his professional military judgment, he said that

there should be remaining in afghanistan 2500 rooms. and the vice chair, general mckenzie, said the same thing. those were words two leaders on the armed services committee. so that was the professional military judgment that the biden administration completely disregarded. and this is what the outcome was, a complete failure and abdd responsibility in afghanistan. you can't come to any other conclusion that than that. the biden administration was trying to cover for their own lack of leadership there and their own dereliction of duty. martha: -- maria: i mean, it seems that the botched withdrawal really triggered our adversaries very soon after. of you saw russia go into ukraine in february of last year, you saw china get real aggressive. so what are the long-term implications of the fact that the u.s. abandoned the bagram air force base, left all those weapons there? how much money and weapons did

we leave to the taliban? >> maria, we left behind billions of collars of military hardware -- can dollars of military hardware, and who knows where that is today and where it might end up being used against the united states. that botched withdrawal sent a signal to countries around the world, to leaders like vladimir putin and xi jinping that america lacked the resolve to stick with a situation that needed to, needed to be handled in the proper way to demonstrate that we are able to combat these forces of evil around the world. and that emboldened putin and xi jinping. i think that that's the takeaway from this. to me, it's very, very sad that that's where we end up. ask we're still living with those ramifications today. maria: all right. we will leave it there. congressman, thanks very much. congressman rob whitman on this easter weekend. thank you, sir.

>> thanks, maria. maria: we're going to take a break. we've got a mixed jobs report to report on. that was for the month of march. but with the recent bank failures, high inflation and treasury rates falling, is the market about to crack? the bear trap report's founder larry mcdonald on what to expect when we come back. >> the market probably goes down 10, 20%, maybe 30% the nex sfx: [soft beach sounds] c'mon ref, that's a foul! jay? jay's back? gimme a time out. huddle up! i call the time outs. didn't expect to see me so soon, huh? well, i invest in a fund that fuels innovation, like next gen video conferencing, and when i saw your defense in the first half, i had to step in! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. coach, what are you doing?! this thing goes fast. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com >> woman: why did we choose safelite? we're always working on a project. while loading up our suv, one extra push and... crack!

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maria: welcome back. take a look at where markets ended the week following the march jobs report, holiday the-shortened week. markets were closed on friday. the economy added 236,000 jobs last month with the unemployment rate falling slightly to 3.5%. recession fears are moving to the forefront now. our next guest says that a market decline is imminent. joining me right now is the founder of the bear traps report, he is the editor as well, larry mcdonald, once again with me.

larry, great to see you. thanks so much for joining me this weekend. i want to get your ache the, first, on the jobs term. give us some context here, larry. >> well, 230,000 is a nice beat, but remember the survey, maria, was the week of the bank kind of epicenter collapse. so the data in the jobs probably isn't in this report, it's probably in the next because things will deteriorate in the following two weeks. but if you look at the jobless claims and the jolts data which was released a few days ago, you know, before the jobs number, in that data is much more current. ask that showed a much more sharp detier ration. so our concern deterioration. our institutional clients are looking at this jobs number as kind of like, okay, back backward-looking before the financial crisis. maria: yeah, i think you make such a great point. and you've indicated in your report that we've got a rolling

can credit crisis. arkansasly, let's talk about that. banks have already tightened their lending, can and that's playing out, and you're seeing some serious selloffs in some of these financials. walk us through what you see happening right now. >> well, i want to say, you know, you and i have known each other about 15, 20 the years, and i've never called for a crash. it's the an aggressive call, and i'm not one of these, you know, perma-bears. but when we looked under the surface over the last, you know, say two months, especially the last three weeks, the chemicals, the huntsman chemical, industrial metals, a alcoa, steel dynamics, if hen the financials, not just the regional banks, but bank of america, all these stocks are down 10, 20 the, 30%. united airlines down 122%. -- 22%. the last three, four weeks. so the beast in the market is clearly rolling, it's a rolling credit crisis, and now it's

heading to the consumer. the credit default swaps on capital one which is your middle subprime lender to consumers in america, those are blowing out, and the stock performance of capital one is the lowest relative to american expression -- american express since the depths of the covid crisis. so under the surface, there's a lot more going on. maria: wow, yeah. you say that the signals are mounting and that the fed is done. you told me that the federal reserve is likely going to cut rates before the july 4th holiday. so tell me more about that. the how significant a selloff are you looking for this year? and don't forget taxes may very well be going higher as well. that's another pressure for consumers. the irs unveiled its $80 billion plan for a 10-year overhaul. >> yes. and overall so far, the tax refunds are down about 7% year-over-year. so that's a consumer crag. drag. but between now and say august

1st, we're going to have, we're going to have the april jobs report, the may and the june. and then the july. so we've got three big ones. and the most recent tightening of financial conditions is going to show up in those reports. historically, the jobs -- they're always the last to know, right? and so what we want to do and what our viewers want to do right now is look under the surface at all the leading credit indicators likeally financial, auto loans. credit cards, chemicals, industrials. all those things. and bonds. all those things are really pointing toward a major drawdown in the equity market. and essentially, the market's being held up as you've been stating and a are lot of people have been stating, the market's being held up by 12 the sockses, the big 12 mega-cap ec equities. maria: yeah. you look at the nasdaq, it's off 14 year to date, and yetst the largely a narrow rally. it's those big names in tech.

real quick, larry, what's your assessment of first quarter earnings? because we're going to be hearing from these ceos and getting some guidance on the first quarter reporting season in about a week and a half. >> well, see that's really important because in the next, it's like you said, next week and a half, two weeks the financials start reporting, and a lot of the damage and a lot of the crazy movements in markets that we've seen like the move in treasuries, that's why the move index is so important that measures treasury volatility and the vix. so volatility in treasuries not so muching equities, but more so treasuries and bonds was at, you know, we're talking about -- [inaudible] numbers. so a lot of that's going to show up in the earnings data for the banks. that's probably not going to make some people happy. and then the rolling problem with the can credit crisis impacting earnings and inflation kind of lingering around, so the street's looking for $200, $205 of earnings this year. it's probably going to come in at 190, 185.

you throw a 15 multiple on that, you probably belong somewhere below 3,000 on the s&p. maria: all right, we'll leave it there and we'll be watching. it's going to be important. larry, thanks very much for joining us. >> thanks, maria. all the best. maria: republicans fired off the first subpoena in the probe of the trump indictment this week. will d.a. alvin bragg be the next speak that? don peebles is here on and i remember kind of thinking like, "oh my gosh, i think we could be sisters." because i think we looked... yes. right. yeah. and i don't think at that time- i think you're the one to tell me that we had the same birthday. yes. it's really unbelievable when you think about it, because it's been, like, really over 20 years that you were my mother and father's banker, you became my banker and now fran is in her third year of college and you're her banker.

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it will release your fat and it will release you. ♪ maria: welcome back. are we watching a weaponization of the justice system? legal experts are warning that the indictment of former president trump is setting a dangerous precedent for future political prosecutions. in this as the house judiciary

committee could soon subpoena manhattan d.a. alvin bragg to testify in front of congress. don peebles is here. don, it's great to have you. welcome to the program, welcome back. what is your take of this this trump indictment and already the house judiciary has put out one subpoena, a former prosecutor who left alvin bragg's office in the middle of this investigation and indictment of trump? >> well, look, absolutely congress should look into this. it is a one of purposes of the house judiciary committee and the senate view kishly committee. the fact is that they, we all immediate to understand why alvin bragg indicted donald trump on these charges that clearly had statute of limb that asians issues -- limitations issues. whether or not they're misdemeanors or not. i mean, this could happen to anybody, but in this instance there's not another human being on the planet that would have been indicted on these charges other than donald trump.

maria: yeah, it's a lot of questions around this. we're going to keep a spotlight on it. congress, i also want to the get your d don, i want to get your take on the economy, we've been talking about the latest jobs numbers. but the commercial real estate market has been worrying me. left so many office buildings vacant, now it's being hit even harder by the recent bank failures, the collapse of silicon valley bank and signature. what can you tell us about commercial real estate right now, don? >> well, commercial real estate was in deep trouble, especially office of and retail. it was on its knees during the pandemic, and then these massive and rapid rate increases by the fed were kicks in the teeth. and so what we have is we have now buildings that were fundamentally sound, financially sound that are now in trouble as well. and they're now become a credit crunch because 80% of commercial real estate development loans are made by local and regional banks. and so that's going to have a chilling impact on jobs.

but the big issue is new york city, washington, d.c., los angeles, chicago, san francisco and other major cities where millions of people, hundreds of thousands of people commute into every day for office space. those offices have are no longer being occupied, and it's having a chilling effect on the businesses surrounding it. so the big challenge is going to be how to expeditiously convert those buildings into more productive uses, and that's going to to be required by the government to be a partner with commercial real estate and also provide significant financial incentives so we can get people back into these cities because right now if you look at manhattan, manhattan's about 50% occupied. it's killing and has killed so many businesses, small, local businesses that relie on the influx of people -- rely on the influx of people coming in each day. the best solution is, of course, to look at commercial office -- [inaudible] and hospitality. maria: what does mean for the macro economy? where are you on the rest of the

year in terms of what we may see? >> i think we're on our way if we're not in it already, in a recession. and the question is whether or not it's going to be a short, you know, recession with minimal impact, or is it going to be a long and deep one like we saw in the late 1970s. or the early 1990s when we had the banking cry is the or -- crisis or a combination of both. i think that means the rates have to stop increasing, and we need to see what happens in the marketplace and give the commercial real estate industry a way to stabilize itself. and i think that the government is going of to have to come in and help subsidize interest rates for the production of new and additional housing especially moderate and middle income housing which are now fundamentally unsound because of the high cost increases that we've seen since covid and the rapid increase interest rates. and so without that, we're also going of to have a shortage of housing. maria: yeah.

you said that before. don, what about all that corporate debt? stephanie pomboy has mentioned to me in the past that there's a trillion dollars on corporate balance sheets that will have to reprice. it's going to turn over, rollover this year, rather, and they'll be faced with much higher rates. will we see bankruptcies on the rise? >> i think we may. i'm hopeful that there will be some mechanisms in place that will help soften the blow here because the rate increases have been so quick and so extreme that it'll put businesses in positions to where they're insolvent. especially small and mid-sized businesses, by the way, that rely on fluctuating interest rates. maria: sure. well, we went from zero rate toss five in an 11-month period. don, it's great to see you. send in your best -- sending you best regards for a happy easter. don peebles joining us this weekend. thank you, sir. >> thank you. happy easter to you. maria: and to you. i've got one important thing you need to know about ahead o

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maria: welcome back. one thing you need to know about ahead of next week, the easter bunny is paying an expensive visit this year. the national retail federation and positive per insights predicting 81% of americans will spend a record-break whering $24 billion for this year's holiday. that cost accounts for easter can key, gifts and food up better than 15% year-over-year. fox business, of course, will be all over it in the week ahead with the very latest inflation data coming out on wednesday with. join us on "mornings with maria" next week all week, monday through friday, 6-9 a.m. eastern, live. and we'll get you that inflation data. that'll do it for us this weekend. thank you so much for being with me. have a blessed easter and a wonderful weekend, everybody, an time. ♪