Skip to main content

tv   Cavuto Coast to Coast  FOX Business  April 20, 2023 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

12:00 pm
stuart: interesting conversation during that commercial break following the marijuana chef. lauren: you think. i might not back here tomorrow. sailfish. stuart: i don't know why. go with swordfish. you're right. reach 68 miles an hour. speed h speed on the ocean is measured in knots. 68 miles an hour. we'll take it. we don't have time for a market check. don't forget the "friday feedback." email us varney viewers ott dom. nothing about the marijuana chef, please. "coast to coast" starts right now. [♪
12:01 pm
neil: all right. might be dancing on the ceiling, we're sort of at the brink of that ceiling. they're trying to push it a a little higher a little longer. i'm neil cavuto. we're focusing on the debt ceiling still stuck at $31.4 trillion. now the republicans have a plan led by kevin mccarthy to keep us going another few months but it is hardly guaranteed, even among republicans. let's go to chad pergram where that stands. hey, chad. >> reporter: neil, this is the opening serve in a series of solace over the debt ceiling over the next two months. kevin mccarthy plans to lift the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion but senate majority leader chuck schumer opposes mccarthy's plan. >> mccarthy yesterday capitulated to the maga right, rolled out a partisan wish-list masquerading as legislation this maga wish-list has no chance of moving forward in the senate.
12:02 pm
it doesn't move us any closer than we were yesterday to avoiding default. >> reporter: schumer hasn't unveiled a plan. he will need 60 societies to clear a filibuster on any bill. senate republicans are watching closely. >> i'm standing with kevin. when the house acts, whatever comes over to the senate, we're not going to raise the debt ceiling without getting debt reforms in the ceiling, without my vote. i don't think 10 republicans would work with schumer to raise the debt ceiling without addressing the fundamentals of the debt itself. >> reporter: percent this must go through the house. it is about the math. some republicans may feel the cuts are too deep or don't go far enough. >> i'm worried about the future of our country economically. we continuously lie to the american public saying we'll cut, cut. then we agree to something here we are back at our limit again. kevin mccarthy has kept his word
12:03 pm
and he has put a lot of good things in there. >> reporter: mccarthy wants to pass the bill by the end of next week but it could foreshadow a long hot summer if mccarthy struggles to pass his own bill. neil. neil: chad, help me with the math. he can't afford to lose that many republicans, maybe four tops, right? assuming the democrats vote as a block against it, right? >> reporter: that's right. four to five republicans, that is the math in the house of representatives. it's very tight majority. you could see some moderate democrats jerold golden of maine possibly somebody might vote for this. joe manchin, democrat from west virginia in senate said he was onboard right now with the plan that mccarthy put out. neil: assuming they can get past the hurdles, kevin mccarthy and republicans can, goes to the senate. you mentioned manchin. i know it's wild card.
12:04 pm
how does it look there? >> reporter: they have to get to 60 votes. schumer will not put this plan on the floor that is the problem. this is kevin mccarthy trying to show the administration and show conservatives in the house that he can pass something. this is more about the onus on kevin mccarthy than anything else. neil: he can only afford, kevin mccarthy, if he loses support because some in his ranks don't think he was tough enough, all takes one of them to say good-bye, right? >> reporter: that's request when you look at this is a little bit vague. i will give his members a little opportunity to amend this, see what they propose. again you're talking about possibly vacating the chair. this was the whole debate during the speaker's race in january here. it would take a series of people to come to kevin mccarthy and say, no, no. i think that is way premature right now. neil: got it, my friend, thank you, chad pergram. to congressman matt rosendale,
12:05 pm
montana republican, freedom caucus member as well, one of those holding the present speaker's feet to the fire to be tough on this. congressman great to have you. assuming this can somehow eke through the house with a couple democratic votes if chad is right, it could be an uphill climb to get 60 in the senate. so we're told, looks like it could stop there, what do you think? >> i think we're putting in the position in a position to buff them up, neil. we demonstrated in the house we'll put a plan forward. it is going to freeze the spending, it will claw back out of control spending things that biden administration has put forward the last two years, whether talking about the student loan redistribution program or the green new energy deals, we'll get the money back for american taxpayers. we're going to utilize it to pay the current bills instead of trying to create new bills. we'll have the spending froze.
12:06 pm
then we've got a lot of provisions to make sure we continue to grow the economy because as you and your audience knows growing the economy is the only way we'll truly today's this huge national debt we're dealing with right now f we want to have a responsible discussion then that needs to be done because while everybody points to the debt ceiling and talks about that being the crisis, neil, the big crisis is the devaluation of the dollar. at $31.6 trillion and russia and china having discussions about using different currency that could be a calamity none of us ever experienced before. neil: still potential government shutdown, maybe a default, that will not help the dollar. >> no, it will not help the dollar. i can assure you changing the reserve currency globally to something besides the dollar that will be much, much worse. we're going to send the senate a package. then it is going to be up to them to make sure they gather up
12:07 pm
60 votes to address this. we will send them something to address the debt ceiling but i can tell you it is not going to be business as usual, neil. the american people are tired of these increases in the debt ceiling without addressing the actual spending that is taking mace. neil: you know, we go through this quite a bit, you've a history of this, dozens of times, you know, over many decades. is there a way just to avoid these debt ceiling fights all together? i believe only we and denmark have such a requirement. the rest of the world does not. is there a way to avoid this whole craziness? >> there is, there is. it is called a continuing resolution with 2% reduction in spending that automatically kicks in congress comes together and increase the debt ceiling that provision is going to be pushed around as well. i think that you will probably see the senate receiving that resolution as well. we're going to give them several doors that they will be able to
12:08 pm
open up to make sure we have responsible funding of our government. neil: do you think there is the risk that we could have a default? >> i don't. we've actually been in rooms before where they said even if the debt ceiling hadn't been increased the treasury would continue to pay the bills. so that conversation is always been out there as well but there is no reason that the senate cannot come together with a plan that the house sends over there. we will send a realistic plan, a responsible man on how to fund government. then it will be up to the senate to pass that plan. neil: got it. keep us posted congressman. great seeing you congressman matt rosendale. he is quickly growing to be one of my favorite guests, speaks his mind, gets through my thick skull. lou, good to see you. >> good to see you. neil: whether this is a market mover for you, everyone says, you're a young guy i've been through this ritual many, many
12:09 pm
times. we avoid it the last time it came really close back in 2011, we avoided shut down or default but we still had our credit downgraded. >> let's invoke yogi berra, deja vu all over again. neil: right. >> people expect a resolution to happen. they know it happened in the past. history is instructive. i'm a hopeless romantic. i don't know what the equivalent in politics. hope less politic. lilt, save, grow. neil: we can't do it, right? >> we can't do it, we know easiest, path of least resistance to raise the debt ceiling right? how do we get out of the situation. not have a 2% resolution to cut spending, it is to balance the budget. that is a novel. can we do that? a former congressman told said you used to have balanced budget provision, show how the budget
12:10 pm
gets balanced. democrats removed that. neil: now if you had a balanced budget in a given year you have 31 plus trillion of combined deficits or debt. >> right. neil: seems inconceivable that could ever be paid off. >> it is inconceivable. we pay in codependent world. what if china doesn't stop buying our debt. it is about tina, not tina turner, no other alternative. maybe they buy japanese debt? they own 11% of u.s. debt, non-public debt. united kingdom is a big buyer. no one else else has an option. neil: i know this idea after rival currency or basket of currencies have been out there a while but is it getting more traction now? does that worry you? what would impact be of something like that. >> impact would be huge. we've been talking about two decades, talking about bitcoin replacing.
12:11 pm
digital currency replaces u.s. dollar. neil: time they said that of the british pound. >> agree. neil: do you think we're getting a little too cocky about this? >> complacency always hurts everyone. i focus on technology. the new technology how it will get into the market and who will fight against it. there are always forces working hard against new standards coming in when it comes to world currency, reserve currency, literally decades, of history, century of history, using u.s. dollar, that doesn't get replaced overnight. people don't have the comfort in the yuan. do you want to invest in the yuan? neil: they can't agree to what to name their currency. make up your mind for god's sake. you're great at technology, looking at that janet yellen sort of raised the octane a little bit, we have to really kind of enforce fair business relations all but saying china
12:12 pm
is not fair. that is hardly a fox alert. having said that though china is talking about getting tough with us as well. it is in neither of our interests to let this get out of control but i'm almost getting the sense it is out of control. so for a lot of the biggest technology names, many of them already laying people off, and tesla, feeling about cutting prices it has come back to hurt them a little bit in so many of their operations in china and dependent on china where do you see this going? >> look i would tell you historically we fought wars, cold wars, real wars over commodity, oil, right? the commodity of the future is intellectual property. i think that's been defined very well. you see our stance trying to restrict china's access to semiconductor technology. semiconductors and intellectual property -- neil: is it too late? they have already stolen -- >> having a patent on something doesn't make it unstealable, right? you can still steal but now there are some protections that
12:13 pm
what we come to understand as a country we need to, innovation, protection of intellectual property is the future of economic growth. not who has the oil. not who has the most military power. we now know that wars are fought on a digital landscape, not on a geographic landscape. neil: economically, countries that depend on that wouldn't want to ruin that, like china? >> yeah. neil: we always hungered the belief it will never come to war with us, china needs us, we need china. history of the world bears out it is not always the case? >> i agree with you. i think what the big difference china thinks in decades. we think in next election four years, right? neil: very good point. >> that is a very scary proposition. china is thinking how we can slowly edge out, outpace innovation in the united states? patent filings in china outpaced the filings in united states. they're preying the long game. we're playing the short game. that the intrinsic danger in the u.s. and our political civil we're so nearsighted. you see steps being taken to
12:14 pm
remove our reliance on china. the current administration does not negotiate from a position of strength. look what is happening in ukraine. how that trickled over into the rest of the world. china feels emboldened. what will we do to stop them from invading taiwan, 60% of semiconductor production in high end chains? if i'm china, i'm not worried about the u.s. neil: even with the hit today, they climbed this wall of worry. remarkably resilient this year. that could change. >> yeah. neil: how do you feel them as a group if you're looking at the nasdaq 100, what do you think? >> that's a great question. as a group why they're rallying is instructive. people see them doing the right fiscal things. they're cutting back on jobs. they overexpanded during the boom times. tech jobs. look at twitter, they went from 8,000 employees down to 1500. still works, right? what were all the people doing at twitter. elon musk figured out.
12:15 pm
tech sector, bigger names, nvidia way overvalued. neil: they led the last rally. >> they did. neil: is it to lead the next rally? are there other sectors we're not appreciating? >> i think semiconductors will lead. nvidia is overpriced. a.i. is driving nvidia right now. name like microsoft so more compelling a play in a.i. neil: that's interesting. >> they made 10 billion-dollar investment in open a.i. microsoft has a ecosystem where they can deploy a.i. nvidia is reliant on customers whatever systems use their chips. microsoft said we can start using open a.i. in microsoft word. they can use it in applications where they drive mark get adoption. neil: they're onto something. i have a beta cop of bing with the a.i. it was scary. >> we'll be out of job. neil: already out of it now. lou, i always great seeing you. i always learn a lot. >> is 45 young? i don't feel young at 45. neil: i have ties older than
12:16 pm
you, enough said. thank you, lou, really great job. as he was saying we have bumps along the way. certainly existing home sales, prices they're declining even as mortgage rates have been declining. so what's up with that, the impact for all of us? bill pulte here with pulte capital. his read on all of that. you're watching fox business. ♪. the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam who make...? ...everyday products... ...designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder - that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that... ...i need a breakthrough card... like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more... plus unlimited 2% cash back
12:17 pm
on all other purchases! and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas... ...a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours. the future is here. we've been creating it for more than 100 years. from the most advanced technology to the broadest, most reliable network of sales and service dealers. we lead. others follow. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones
12:18 pm
12:19 pm
so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now, there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings,
12:20 pm
helps control stress and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. neil: one of those come mesh hales, risky credit, no problem, how about lower rates? perfect credit or even better credit? higher rates, more costs. although i'm not making that up. that is something the government is really kicking around or at least they are at the white house. edward lawrence here to update us. he won't do any of those, like voices. he will actually use his own. edward, help me. >> reporter: we don't have any of those flying things going over and over. yeah. you know, they're actually implementing this. if you have good credit under a new fee structure supported by the biden administration for a new mortgage loan you will actually pay more for those
12:21 pm
mortgages backed by freddie mac and fannie mae. starting on may 1st you see the fee, if you have better credit, fees for a new mortgage go up. while those with poor credit will see the fees significantly reduced. opposite what it means to get good credit. so you have lower loan fees. the former ceo of the mortgage bankers association, david stephens, says this is a bad policy decision and lacks integrity. >> no longer can we say that the actual price you pay reflects the risk of that hone. you can't because some good credit quality buyers will pay more frankly to help someone else get a lower rate mortgage this is very unique move by freddie mac and fannie mae. >> reporter: spokesperson from the white house telling me part of making those changes in a responsible way that promotes safety and soundness for taxpayers meant to also reexamining prices for higher income buyers. so a spokesman argues this will
12:22 pm
help first-time home buying but this affect all income levels based on credit score, not on your income. someone starting out who may have saved, made good decisions will end up paying more than someone made bad decisions with money. industry experts will punish those who pay their bills on time and not expand the economy and possibly suppress homeownership at a time when the federal reserve is raising interest rates to fight inflation. neil. neil: i understood all of that. you packaged that all brilliantly as you do. thank you for that, edward lawrence. how is this going time pack the housing in the future if you're leveling as the administration claims to be saying for all buyers? some say the rich are paying more than their fair share in this environment. that is separate issue. i should let you know, some of the housing news, with the existing home sales, prices going down in the latest month, builders like d.r. horton stock
12:23 pm
up about 7%, earnings blew away estimates, guidance that also blew away estimates so it is hot and cold world when it comes to this arena. bill pulte joins us, pulte capital ceo. bill, harken back to your pure housing days. what is that difference between some builders whose confidence is building up but the overall real estate world so far looks like it is not? >> it's great question, neil, it can be misleading if you don't know what is going on. the reason builders are doing in my opinion real well, d.r. horton, explosive earnings compared to what a lot of people thought, frankly, neil, they're artificially suppressing mortgage rates for the consumer, neil. why that is important, neil, rates are not 6.75% or 7% for many of these buyers buying from the big homebuilders. they're actually 4.9% or 5%. neil, what you're seeing is a
12:24 pm
lot of these builders actually pay down these mortgage rates and take market share. that is what really the disconnect going on here, why the builders are doing well but maybe real estate not so much. neil: also i think there is a lot going on, you know this far better than me, bill, i read a prompter, so i think i qualify as an expert like i think a lot of the adjustable rates are not hike the risky rates that were changing every year, every two years. you can lock in a very low rate, much lower than the conventional 30-year fixed rate for 10 years. during that time, even 10 years out, refinance then when your financial situation has changed. what do you make of that, that that portion of the business, what is going on there is very different than what was going on in the last housing correction, meltdown, whatever you want to call it? >> it is very different, neil. i will tell you the mortgages being underwritten now, pulte homes, our former family business has been in the
12:25 pm
mortgage business for 30, 40 years. one of the things i can tell you from my experience, my opinion is that mortgages these days are being underwritten better and more soundly than they have been in the last 30 to 40 years. that is because we've seen the great recession happen and the mortgage standards have very tight throughout this time period, neil. now the last segment with the reporter at the white house you were discuss talking to makes a really good point. in and of itself this is not an issue, if you continue to see standards lighten up, i would start to get concerned. in of itself it is not really that concerning. neil: what worry me about that, that cra community investment act, that bill clinton started with the best intentions to get more people to get homes. that led to limited documentation for mortgages to zero doc loans and the rest. we know what followed. >> slippery slope. neil: it is. are you worried that this is the start of a new slippery slope? >> i think we got to watch it.
12:26 pm
i think you got to watch it very carefully. i will say though, a lot of the builders they want to make sure that mortgage standards are tight. they obviously control a lot of this mortgage so oomph. d.r. horton, lennar, they have big mortgage operations. neil: right. >> i think when it comes to the builders they will be very, very careful, neil, this time around. neil: we hope so because it hurts everybody if they're not. bill pulte, great catching up with you thank you. >> you too, neil. see you soon. neil: meantime space accident. , a giant rocket, the biggest, tallest, okayket we rock wet we have ever seen, has a problem, a big one. but it was only a test flight. after this. ♪. you can't buy great conversations, or excuses to unplug. you can't buy possibilities,
12:27 pm
and you can't buy moments that matter. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price we believe your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price, invest with confidence.
12:28 pm
♪ ♪ the vehicles are all-electric. the feeling is all mercedes. the choice is all yours. see your dealer for exceptional offers today. >> woman: why did we choose safelite? we're always working on a project. while loading up our suv, one extra push and... crack! so, we scheduled at safelite.com. we were able to track our technician and knew exactly when he'd arrive. we can keep working! ♪ synth music ♪ >> woman: safelite came to us. >> tech: hi, i'm kendrick. >> woman: replaced our windshield, and installed new wipers to protect our new glass. that's service on our time. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪
12:29 pm
12:30 pm
12:31 pm
♪. >> three, two, one. [cheering] [applause] >> there as you saw -- >> everything after clearing the tower was -- neil: oh, i wanted to hear that. it was icing on the cake. in other words, everything up to the explosion was fine. but what happened here in this test of what will be when it is ultimately ready and going, it should be, you know, take as number of attempts, the tallest, biggest, most powerful rocket launched by man anywhere. now a lot of people told me, don't get me started on the etruscans had this technology. they did not. bottom line, not a great start. but again, it did clear the
12:32 pm
tower. it was well more than a minute into flight before all of these other problems. i can remind many of you how troublesome with nasa when it was trying to catch up with the then soviet union. that was then, the same hope exists now. tom jones, former nasa astronaut. i don't think you're ever a former nasa astronaut. in my mind you're always an astronaut. tom, great to see you. icing on the cake as you heard from that control room, the spacex control room. they were clapping and applauding even when the thing exploded but i guess their view they got a lot further than they thought they would get. there are other launches to come, what do you think? >> i think you have nailed it, neil. this is a good first step but it was sort of two steps forward and one step back. i know that the spacex team wanted to get the starship all the way into orbit and complete a test landing of the second stage, the starship space
12:33 pm
vehicle back in the ocean near hawaii. that never occurred because the first stage failed on the way up to space today. you know, i like the spacex approach of testing, failing, learning, and then trying again. but we don't have unlimited time. i don't think elon musk has an unlimited budget either. so i think they hoped for more from the test and they're putting a bright face on it. neil: nasa is in contract on spacex on this very offering, this very gigantic rocket but it would bs, you know, working in conjunction with missions of its own through artemis. face where it fits into the space exploration lunar mission puzzle. >> the starship has a first stage, second stage. the second stage is the starship that will be nasa's future moon
12:34 pm
lander. so this west was designed to get the starship once around the planet, test some of its landing systems for the moon landing system. the fact it never got a chance to fire it up its engines at all, we are no longer to have a functional lunar astronauts back to the moon on 2026, joining up with the orion spacecraft that carries astronauts out to the moon. this series of tests has to move forward so nasa can get on returning humans to the moon. nasa's schedule, budget don't permit a lot of failures achieving that goal. or else we will run into chinese competition. neil: there seems to be a new race to get human, on the moon. we won that race more than 50 years ago. but now they're saying china is going to beat us with human beings on the moon with the latest incarnation. do you buy that? >> i think this is a competition. it is not what i would call a race. there is no deadline but, in the
12:35 pm
21st century who has the ability to land humans on the moon? that matters. that means you are a technological leader on the planet. the chinese would certainly like to up stage nasa in this race. neil: wouldn't you be tempted, you're a space hero, tom, if china bags on that, congratulations we did it more than 50 years ago? >> that is a great argument you can make if you're on the moon waving back to everybody here on earth saying come along and explore the moon with us. we welcome you to the lunar surface. if you're just calling on 50-year-old achievements it will not hold much water. neil: i hear you. thank you very much. tom jones former nasa astronaut. this was elon musk venture, spacex has great success with it. he launched more satellites, more astronauts to the international space station and any other entry. when it comes to the under pinning for this and underlying
12:36 pm
activity it starts with tesla. tesla under a good deal of pressure with disappointment in the overall numbers, unexpected 20% slide in profits. that many are begging constantly cutting price of cars to gain market share. mike caudill joins us now, auto expert. what he makes of that? mike, you know, i thought tesla warned about this. so i don't know why it was the shock it was to a number of analysts. it even said his goal was to increase market share but the reaction was pretty swift, remains so. what do you make of that? >> yeah. so if i look at it like this, neil, if you look at tesla as a whole, they're really starting to look like a formidable automaker. margins go down. they're looking to push volume up. tesla as a whole, sitting at $325 a share yesterday close of business. they were sitting $180 a share. now the reason behind this is truly competition, neil.
12:37 pm
other automakers are in the market. in order for tesla to stay relevant they have to keep cutting prices of their vehicles, so when consumers look at hyundai eye ontic 5 or ford mach e they will be considered by consumers to purchase. neil: as prices come down, there is reminder people like elon musk forcing the issue, to improve affordability and gap between gas-powered cars and these evs but it is picking up. i'm wondering if that is going to make it more favorable for better ev sales in the future? all of sudden, these vehicles become more affordable or at least not nearly as gaping expensewise as a gas vehicle, what do you think? >> yeah. so there is a total miscon conception out there pricing electric vehicles. i keep hearing numbers is $58,000 is the average price. that is if you take into
12:38 pm
consideration like the porsche ticon $150,000, or the mercedes, but average price in electric vehicle is mid 30,000-dollar range. the nissan leaf is sitting $26,000 as an electric vehicle. what that means to the consumer in the market, prices are coming down for electric vehicles. i'm not going to tell you driving an electric vehicle makes sense for every person in the marketplace. based on what the white house is currently doing right now, by 2032, 65% of all vehicles sold in the u.s. are supposed to be electric vehicles. the white house is providing subsidies for automakers to do that but inevitably, neil, it will come down to consumers. do they want to buy electric vehicles? neil: well-put. we'll see. the jury proverbally out on that. thank you very much. meantime, we are focusing on the economic numbers, what we had. i tend to follow job announcements when they come
12:39 pm
out, that is under pinning of everything. don't have a job, can't do a lot of buying all of that stuff. when we get meta looking still more layoffs, thousands of layoffs, disney talking about 7,000 start formally losing jobs next week, on an on. it makes you wonder how that changes the view of the federal reserve, may meeting what could happen. top economics cruncher at bank of america on that after this. ♪. ♪ i have type 2 diabetes, ♪ ♪ but i manage it well. ♪ ♪ it's a little pill with a big story to tell. ♪
12:40 pm
♪ i take once-daily jardiance, ♪ ♪ at each day's staaart. ♪ ♪ as time went on it was easy to seee ♪ ♪ i'm lowering my a1c. ♪ jardiance works 24/7 in your body to flush out some sugar! and for adults with type 2 diabetes and known heart disease, jardiance can lower the risk of cardiovascular death, too. jardiance may cause serious side effects including ketoacidosis that may be fatal, dehydration, that can lead to sudden worsening of kidney function, and genital yeast or urinary tract infections. a rare, life-threatening bacterial infection in the skin of the perineum could occur. stop taking jardiance and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of this infection, ketoacidosis, or an allergic reaction, and don't take it if you're on dialysis. taking jardiance with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. ♪ jardiance is really swell, ♪ ♪ the little pill with a big story to tell. ♪
12:41 pm
12:42 pm
12:43 pm
♪. neil: all right, there is raging debate, certainly in the markets right now to worry about inflation or recession or both. of course we're a long way from either seeming to come up right now. inflation is lower than it was,
12:44 pm
5% rate year-over-year on retail side. versus 6%. what had been over 8% too long ago. hear fed tell it muse on at the next meeting the trend is our friend. we have the global research head of u.s. economics, big cheese at the bank. good to have you, michael. >> thanks for having me on. neil: where are you on the may 1st fed meeting? what happens? >> we think they hike another 25 basis points in may. that would bring the funds rate between five and five and a quarter. they're likely to see enough softness in the data and concern, tightness in credit standards we're probably done for now. neil: will they make that clear? >> as clear as they can. i think it will be much more meeting by meeting decision. i don't think they will signal that policy rate firming should be expected. it may be needed but i think the message will be, we're largely done. neil: you have been sending, signals, come from obviously
12:45 pm
your office maybe not a crash but a definite slowing. >> right. neil: how much of a slowing? >> we would be i think what people are calling the mild recession camp. if our forecast has a peak to tough decline in gdp of about one percentage point, 1%, a normal recession is probably close to around two, 2 1/2%. so declines in activity, some hayoffs in the second half of the year would probably meet the mber definition of a recession but woulding relatively short-lived and shallow, in comparison to the two we had recently, what might abnormal downturn. neil: what if we dodge that all together? a lot of people looking continued job growth. 232,000 in the latest month. that was two-year low in terms of advancement, it still has been kind of nonstop. >> it is possible. these things take time. lag effects of fed tightening are really. only a year since the fed started tightening. typically takes up to 18 to 24
12:46 pm
month for all of that to play out. it is possible we avoid a recession. the consumer is still in a pretty good position. neil: what have you noticed at bank of america as far as lending activity, that sort of stuff? >> spending has slowed. neil: yeah. >> our proprietary card date dark we haves in of accounts. we can kind of look at the signal from that and it does suggest spending has slowed. the euphoria on the rush coming out of the pandemic has largely subsided and spending growth is slowing. neil: how about paying the bill growth, is that still stable or find more people that are behind? >> no, card balances are going up, delinquencies are rising butth coming off historically low levels. balances were paid down during the pandemic. delinquencies were all-time lows. some normalization is to be expected. direction of travel higher but not to levels we would find alarming. neil: when we hear of these job cuts, some big ones in the tech
12:47 pm
world, meta, google, amazon, disney now 7,000 next week what is the impact of that? i always think if other companies hear disney is laying off, i didn't think i needed to, but a company like that is doing it, maybe i should do it? >> i think the signal at the moment, the sectors had a lot of hiring during the pandemic, finance, technology, what we call professional, business services telecoms, disney of the world as you mentioned, maybe it is time to give some of that hiring back, right? neil: right. >> but we're still seeing a tremendous amount of hiring in catch-up sectors like leisure and hospitality and education and health. some is the rotation of spending back towards services away from the sectors that did really well in the pandemic. so we're still sorting all of that out. in general layoffs send a negative signal. they reduce confidence. a weaker job market makes
12:48 pm
consumers less willing likely to spend. the question, how much weakness will we get in terms of hiring and or layoffs. what does that do to the strength of consumer spending? neil: what about interest rates in general? you talking another quarter-point hike in may. maybe that's it. market rates actually have been going down, sensing a slow-down maybe. maybe doing some of the fed's job. so where do you see that going? >> so the funds rate, we have, beginning to come down next year in the first quarter of -- neil: no cuts this year? >> no cut this is year. obviously if there is a deeper downturn, there is sharper contraction in credit conditions coming, the fed could be easing sooner. we think they're on hold into the early part of next year but with inflation coming down, with the economy slowing, then the interest rate environment is still, longer you go out is pretty low and stable. 3 1/2% on the 10 year. neil: yeah. >> is not extraordinarily high. yield curve is inverted. saying, the market is saying we do expect the economy to
12:49 pm
showdown and inflation to come down. neil: the debt ceiling, back and forth, still a wild card? >> right. neil: how do you think it goes? >> there is strong reasons i think, to believe that we, at least go up to the x-date itself. the margins of control in the house and the senate are very small. i think the parties learned different things, say they learned different things from 2011. >> you never know. never know the way they talk. >> at least starting point for negotiations coming out of the republican house to the extent we get a lot of clarity on that, the ask is large, unlikely to be palatable to democrats. neil: the ask is large. i like that. that is one way to look at it. >> it means we risk running right up to the end. i think the disciplining device that markets could provide or voters could provide is unlikely to come until the end, we think nothing happens in washington until the last moment anyway. neil: right. >> so there is a lot of
12:50 pm
self-reinforcing factors here that, this is going to be with us for a while. it may run right up to the end. neil: sort of when i was doing term papers, right -- >> right to the very end, yeah. neil: ridiculous. michael, thank you very much. great seeing you. >> thank you. neil: meantime as he was speaking here, market holding its down, down 59 points. we're talking a lot about artificial intelligence, but, but, there is something going on just, in stores today, in restaurants today. that proves it is here and big business. we'll show you after this. ...everyday products... ...designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder - that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that... ...i need a breakthrough card... like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more... plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases! and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas... ...a brilliant reality!
12:51 pm
the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours. and i remember kind of thinking like, "oh my gosh, i think we could be sisters." because i think we looked... yes. right. yeah. and i don't think at that time- i think you're the one to tell me that we had the same birthday. yes. it's really unbelievable when you think about it, because it's been, like, really over 20 years that you were my mother and father's banker, you became my banker and now fran is in her third year of college and you're her banker. it's so unbelievable because i'm just 20 years old. [laughing] - representative! - sorry, i didn't get that. - oh buddy! you need a hug. you also need consumer cellular. get the exact same coverage as the nation's leading carriers
12:52 pm
and 100% us based customer support. starting at $20. consumer cellular. ♪ choosing miracle-ear was a great decision. like when i decided to host family movie nights. miracle-ear made it easy. i just booked an appointment and a certified hearing care professional evaluated my hearing loss and helped me find the right device calibrated to my unique hearing needs. now i enjoy every moment. the quiet ones and the loud ones. make a sound decision. call 1-800 miracle now, and book your free hearing evaluation. i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please!
12:53 pm
you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free, now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-217-3217. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free. with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income...
12:54 pm
are federally tax-free... and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217. ♪. neil: you know, a lot of people take the time, effort and money to get eyelash extensions, never pursued it myself. my wife has, anyway, it's big deal, take as good deal of time. now they have robots able to do it and do it cheaper and faster. nathan harding is behind the effort. he is the loom ceo. good to have you. how does this bork? >> well, we use robots to essentially do what lash artists are painstakingly do right now. one robot isolates a hash from the others and another robot puts an extension, puts it in
12:55 pm
glue, places it on the lash. neil: so the machine doing it. do people get nervous about it? the machine could do something wrong, right? >> there is some, there is some nervousness. usually comes from men i must say but, we have a safety system that's extraordinary. basically the robots are entirely kept in a steel box. the only thing that can reach the client at all are these littlefeather weight tools. they're held on by little magnets. so if you were suddenly, usually you're asleep. if you were asleep and you suddenly woke up and thrust your head into the tools, they just fall off harmlessly. we put on china ones, keep going. neil: is there something on the eye itself to prevent the machine from, from doing harm? >> well the tools themselves have little flexible tips. they fall off, if you tapped them with your finger like this,
12:56 pm
they just fall off. neil: is it an arm doing it or the tips? strongest thing you have to worry about tips putting eyelash extenders on? >> that is the idea. that is all you have to worry about. so even if we didn't have the eye mask it would be entirely safe. we do have eye masks as well keep the eye closed and provide fiducials for the a.i. civil to look at. neil: people, how are they responding this? >> we did a client test. we got a 82% net promoter score. that is basically off the charts. it has a five-star pop sugar review. fantastic review on allure.com. neil: seeing some examples you wouldn't know, machines are doing this. i guess individuals are losing jobs for this. they're okay i guess? >> this is such a labor shortage in lash extensions it is kind of phenomenal.
12:57 pm
we want to work with lash artists, give them the ability to do three times the appointments they can do now. neil: all right. >> that will completely transform the business for investors. neil: wow, the ayes have it.mize see that? more after so this. ♪. i think i've got it! doggy-paddle! only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ ..
12:58 pm
i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones
12:59 pm
♪ what will you do? will you make something better? create something new? our dell technologies advisors can provide you with the tools and expertise you need to bring out the innovator in you. first, there's an idea and you do something about it for the first time with godaddy. then before you know it, (it is a life changer...) you make your first sale. small business first. never stopped coming. (we did it!) and you have a partner that always puts you first way. (no way!) start today at godaddy.com.
1:00 pm
neil: time for "the big money show". jackie: we have the ceo of impossible foo

53 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on