stuart: let me read this. the answer is aurora. she was only featured in sleeping beauty for 18 minutes. >> i never wanted to be a princess ever. never wanted to be a princess. i wanted to be president of the united states. stuart: you didn't want to be a princess but president of the united states? really? lauren: yes. stuart: when did you ditch this as ambition for being president? lauren: i never ditched it. i'm joking. i could never be president of the united states. stuart: independent, third party questions. lauren: personal questions. i wouldn't be a democrat. >> there is 10 seconds to go, you know how it works. "varney & company" is over, but "coast to coast," watch out, sports fans, "coast to coast" starts now? neil: all right. crisis averted at corner of wall and broad right now. you can see jpmorgan chase, the

rescue acquirer of first republic bank. if you think of first republic, remember it got $30 billion of federal aid in the end, forced into the arms of jamie dimon over jpmorgan chase. that stock essentially a non-event, less than two bucks a share. no longer trading. year ago it was well north of 100 bucks a share that was then. this is the fourth big bank failure of the year. the third since march is now history. thank you. i want to thank you for my buddy david asman doing a great job in my absence. good guy. enthusiasm pervasive. everyone finding it contagious. when i got back, people said, oh, neil back. we have a lot going on. let's pick apart what the latest bank takeover means and whether that puts kibosh on bank concerns. might be a bit premature to say that. kelly o'grady in los angeles with more. hey, kelly.

>> reporter: good to see you, neil. this is the second largest bank failure in history. when i woke up to the news this morning i zoomed out for a second, wow, jpmorgan bought bear stearns going back to the 2008 banking crisis. they bought washington mutual. the big banks keep getting bigger. for context, jpmorgan won out in competitive bidding process. they will take over the majority of first republic's assets, all the deposits insured or uninsured. the make will pay a $10.6 billion payment if the to the fdic they will share in losses. they are open as business as usual. you mentioned this at the top. this is not the first rescue attempt. there was a group of banks that funneled $30 billion to prop up first republic in march. jpmorgan will have to repay all the banks in the takeover agreement.

ceo jamie dimon shared they didn't pursue this acquisition, instead our government invited us and others to step up and we did. our financial strength, capability, business model allow us to develop a bid to execute the transaction in a way to minimize costs to the deposit insurance find. this is cheaper than the and less expensive to the government. it raises the question how the fed will react this week, months going forward with rate hikes. i will leave you on the call where jamie dimon was explaining all of this. he said he doesn't think this increases the risk of a recession but he does think there will be more consolidation in the banking industry. that may not seem like a big deal but the smaller banks, they were the ones that loaned most to those small businesses. so you could see some repercussions there. i will send it back to you, neil. neil: deal of the century. the government takes over much of the liabilities, and he takes

the prize. we'll see how that works out. jonathan hoenig is with us. the big question is the timing of all of this, this week the federal reserve meets to hike interest rates maybe one last time in the cycle, what do you think? >> higher interest rates and lower bond prices doomed first republic, silvergate and so many other banks. i don't think the carnage is over just yet. as kelly pointed out, these are not small banks, microcap banks. 12 largest bank in the country, second largest bank fail rush in the country. when look at index of banking stocks regional banks are down 30% in the last two months of the nasdaq is up by about that much. back in 2007 bernanke said the subprime crisis wouldn't be a problem. it ended up being a global financial crisis. i don't think we're out of the woods just yet with regard to the bank failures regardless what the fed does. neil: do you think it does temper the fed's plans? if you were heretofore thinking not just hike in may then go

away, we might keep our powder dry but we won't put the powder away in an environment like this? >> well certainly will be more constraint, neil. however the market itself is indicating higher rate. think about it, nothing much really has been done to curtail the inflation that is flummoxing the entire economy writ large. rates across the yield curve are still going up. the fed once again might be in effect behind the curve here. interestingly, neil, what you're seeing across entire financial markets, more and more bets on actually the u.s. government defaulting on its debt of the seeing credit spreads widen many cases multidecades highs. a lot of concern what the fed would do if they don't hike rate. they ultimately need to given in fact inflation has not gone away. some banks teeter 52-week lows. hfsc, host of other regional banks at new 52-week lows, despite the market writ large is

up. neil: i'm astute for you to point out smaller, regional banks are taking it on the chin. the supposition we're seeing shift from smaller, regional banks where people feel money is better protected in a bigger bank. i don't see that phenomenon going away. how it plays out, how many of these guys survive, i have no idea. your thoughts? >> neil, exactly, not only that but investors are realizing they have money sitting in bank deposits accounts, yielding one or 2%, while the market writ large is yielding up to 5%. banks are like any other industry. not like the movie theater industry or fashion, as willie sutton says where the money is, where the government is as well. even the bank takeover today, first republic, as jamie dimon said he was invited by who? not by shareholders. but by the government itself. there will be more bank failures. government will be at the center of it. the fear moving forward for

investors not that banks will necessarily to bo out of business, that is flotsam and jetsam of the economic cycle. government involved with bailouts, with backstops that puts a lot of fear and uncertainty within the market overall. neil: i didn't like the language, i don't know about you, we were invited. that is the same way that saying bank of america was invited to pick up the carcass was then merrill lynch and other earnties invited to scoop up these entities. that was more strong-arming than anything else. do you still see that kind of thing playing out? >> indeed, neil. they don't want to the depositors lose money and creep into the financial system. they do everything they can. as kelly mentioned, jpmorgan is almost seen as an extension of the government in some way. almost like a public/private partnership with government bailing them out, giving them backstops on the loans when it comes to taking over some of thieves banks. there will be more of them.

so many regional banks continue to flummox at 52-week lows even as the rest of the market moves higher. the banking sector is sick, neil. the fact rates continue to go up spells trouble in the weeks and months ahead. neil: for young guy amazing sense of history. we're waiting for word out of the white house. the president will talk on, date we herald small businesses how they're doing, no doubt refer to this fourth major bank failure and rescue if you will this year, the third just since march 1st. again it was, what they call a blood-free rescue. i don't know if that is necessarily the case especially when people like charlie monger are saying just like elon musk was saying the week before, that we have a lot of problems in the commercial property arena. they're not going away. a lot of these banks, the very big banks themselves have a lot of this on their books. should we be worried?

kirsten jordan a real estate agent extraordinaire on that aspect of the story. you think of it, kirsten, what these market braniacs are saying is, these are bad loans or potentially bad loans that could be on their books because a lot of people aren't going back to offices. the offices are not as full. the people and businesses that own them can't sell them. soth stuck with them. is that real estate problem in general? in other words what happens this begins to permeate everywhere? >> the thing with commercial real estate is, there is a lot of different facets that the rest of us don't really think about when it's being valued but one of the important parts you alluded to, the kind of loans on commercial real estate. we all generally think of 30-year fixed mortgages when we think about loans the fact as an american that is what you are thinking when it comes to real

estate loans. commercial real estate loans are usually shorter term and usually higher rates than residential loans. so what we're seeing coming in the commercial sector the rates will probably skyrocket for some of these loans, for some owners or borrowers. then the other part of it is, we can't measure commercial real estate square footage the way you measure residential square footage. there is loss factor there is a lot of commercial residential conversion. that is something that would be tough to do because the way you measure square footage across the different assets. neil: would it make banks more lear iry of lending period? there are not problems right now their exposure to what is happening in commercial properties for example? we want to stress most of this exposure is positive for the time-being. they're not losing money on it. they're proportionally exposed

given the market that might turn if interest rates go higher. that might be a sealing this week and the fed is done but what do you think? >> commercial real estate market we're still seeing how it is going to play out. especially the bigger the building, the more the question is, how does the loan amount relate to the value of the asset? we're hearing a lot of people talk about assets in new york where hey, what is the loan value versus the value of the building? is it at a point they should give the keys back the fact the value of the building is not as high as what the loan is? i think some of these you're talking about are small err assets. really it is still yet to be seen what is going to happen. if rates go up, already in new york city we're seeing that rates, commercial rates are high enough it is affecting developers, builders, whether deciding whether to embark on a new project or new building. neil: let me get your thought of the fed this week.

they would likely will hike. the consensus seems to be around a quarter point. then they pack up the rate bag maybe for the rest of the year. do you agree with that? >> i think that they definitely are going to have to cool it because what they're doing now as you you have seen they're trying to find other ways to stimulate borrowers to buy because, with the rates continuing to go up it becomes a real affordability crisis for americans that want to buy home. i do agree, think they will have to, they will stop raising rates over the summer. we'll have to see how all the rest of the numbers come in. neil: you know, a lot of these new mortgage rules i thought couldn't be passed by fiat, apparently can. i'm talking about the ones that allow those with lower credit ratings to get a better deal on closing related costs than would, someone with a higher code score, that might end up having to pay for this. the government insists, the white house insists that is not

the case. we've run through the numbers. we found out what the requirements are, you know it is the case. so i'm just wondering what the fallout you think will be? >> well, what we will see from those changes is there is definitely going to be more borrowers in that threshold. i think 640 to 660, definitely under 700 credit score where they're getting the largest benefit. like you said that is burr seeing substantial reductions in the underwriting fees we had, we get those mortgages. that is going, it is a stimulus. it isn't a better rate but it's stimulus in the up front fees which for some borrowers is more important than the rate, coming one the extra cash, in addition to thedown payment is a big deal. neil: yeah. >> what i think is it is fair to say they did, the changes on the high credit score borrowers are not as substantial as changes to the lower credit score

borrowers. they effectively closed or shortened the gap that there was between the two worlds. then again these are only conforming loans we're talking about. 40% of the loans that happen in the u.s. are non-conforming, those are subject to their own rules. neil: so real quickly, it did you know, get the old notion back that people who can't afford homes are getting into those homes, at least the closing costs for those homes, we might rue that later. we want to help people out by all means but are we doing to the point where the same applicants will not be able to survive in that home? >> it is really, really tough to say. being able to have lower fees, to be able to purchase those homes will definitely make it easier for people to buy. we are still talking about conforming loans which is under $726,000. neil: fair enough. >> that is the part of the market that those fees, we're

talking a swing, 3, 4, $5,000 can be a large portion of a down payment. so, you know, a lot of these fees are dependent on the size of thedown payment, a size of the mortgage. a lot of different factors. more people come into the market. that is for sure. neil: 726,000, kirsten, some of the properties you sell, that is the corner of a closet but we'll see how it all sorts out. very good seeing you again. thank you. >> thank you. neil: in the meantime here florida's tourism board gone ahead as expected to disney, over disney now, suing essentially ron desantis and the florida government. this back and forth continues here unabated. the parks are packed and obviously ron desantis is going on maybe for a presidential run but this disruption shows that this woke issue, if you will, is going to dog him maybe for the better, make for ill, in weeks,

month, gosh, rate we're going, years ahead. we'll keep an eye on that. keeping an eye on the ongoing debt ceiling talks. come this time next month we're out of money. the treasury means it, we're out of money. here arrest the thing, the two sides have not come together to sort of work this out. in fact while the president meeting with the president of the philippines today has yet to score a meeting with the guy who heads up the house of representatives, the speaker, to deal with this after this. ♪. dad, we got this.

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♪. neil: you know our graphics have gotten more ominous the closer we get to this so-called debt brink we're told around june when we run out of money, they can't play anymore fancy games or look for change under couch cushions. that will be it. that's when we're unable to go beyond the $31.4 trillion, we've run out of options again in june. others are saying no, no, you can put this off until the fall. i have no idea. i know ashiah hasnie is following the battle as closely

as anyone. they're still far apart. in fact they're not even talking, right? >> reporter: no, they're actually taking swipes at each other. if you heard the speech that the president biden gave at the white house correspondents' dinner, took some hits or hit speaker mccarthy during his speech. then speaker mccarthy, who is in israel right now just took a swing at biden which i will tell you about in just a second. look, speaker mccarthy's massive debt seating package that he passed by the hair on his chin, chin, in the house, it is dead on arrival in the senate according to chuck schumer. in fact he will not even bring it to the floor. he is going to put it through committee though, sounds like to try to poke holes it in, neil. house democrats and republicans are sort of going at each other. there is ads running right now that are attacking each other. republicans attacking democrats

for not voting with them on this $1.5 trillion bill. democrats slamming republicans over all the spending cuts in this bill. despite a growing number of democrats calling on the president to sit down with mccarthy we're now hearing from the number two democrat in the senate said the president should not budge. >> if there is a serious threat of default it will have an impact on this economy, on business growth and as well as number of jobs across america. we shouldn't play this dangerous game. the president is right. >> is it a dangerous game just to talk? >> certainly a discussion, it should be clear the discussion, is off budget and appropriation bills. >> reporter: what is really interesting here, neil, democrats say they want to pass a clean debt limit bill, but it is not even clear leader schumer has the votes to do that. senator ted cruz telling republicans sit tight and dig in. >> the house republicans are showing leadership right now. senate republicans should stand

shoulder to shoulder with the house, say joe biden come to the table. even if biden drives us over the cliff like "thelma & louise" with a hanger chief on his hair, he is quite confident the media will happily blame republicans. >> reporter: i can tell you a meeting is not going to happen this week as i mentioned speaker mccarthy is not here. he is in israel where he took a swing at the president. the president still hasn't talked to me. i'm a little like netanyahu. neil: great reporting as usual, ashiah, great reporting as usual. you notice she wore red in case this thing doesn't pan out. we have art laffer, former reagan sven galley. good to see you, art. >> thank you. neil: i call it republican package eked out of the house. not a one is endorsed by democrats we're told. setting discretionary spending at 22 levels. democrats saying not happening.

limiting spending growth not more than 1% a year. they had a far more blunt reaction to that. again not reacting. clawing back covid money that hasn't been spent, better than 100 billion. no. cutting government deficit by $4.8 trillion over 10 years. they say this is a cruel way to go about it. no, no, no, no. that doesn't sound promising. what do you think? >> i think it does sound promising, neil. this is kabuki dance they do all the time. you and i talked long, long ago what happened with douglas dillon and john f. kennedy when he was president. back then the secretary of the treasury supposedly bore the liability of the deficit until the debt ceiling collapsed and defaulted. that is what douglas dillon told jack kennedy, he was very wealthy, mr. president i can hold this off ten minutes. this is going on. it's political charade. each side is trying to prove

themselves over the or the one. all this no, no, stalking behavior out there, it is part of the picture. it has been, i don't know hundreds but since 177i would guess at least 100 plus sometimes, part of the game plain. politically it may mean something. economically everyone is not panicked, this will not happen in america, they're wrong, totally wrong. ultimately the debt ceiling will be raised. democrats will continue spending but it has shown mccarthy one thing it has shown, is mccarthy did have the ability, even as close as it was to get that vote through, through the house. neil: he did. >> that was amazing. i was really surprised, i was really surprised only four defectors. would i have expected more than that had mccarthy really embarrassed about his political ability to pull it off but he

did it. my hats off to him for that. neil: it was remarkable. of course he has to keep the same bunch with him. all it takes is one not satisfied to essentially force him out of office. i can't see that happening. how do you see this ending? we cut it close to the brink in the past in 2011. we actually scored a deal that avoided a government you know, default yet, at the time, our debt was downgraded from aaa because of all the craziness before it. do you think we'll experience something like that? >> if you think they're going to ever pay back this debt, if that means aaa, i don't think it should be aaa to begin with. that is me talking. that is me talking. of course they have been negotiating not to biden that is not where it is happening. i'm sure there are staffers working on this we would agree to this, wouldn't agree to that. there is all this being done on the staff level. when they're ready to talk they will have talking points they

can be pretty sure they agree to. it can happen at the last -- there is no incentive with these people, no incentive, whatsoever, to get this done quickly, get the drama off the stage. brinksmanship makes the news, makes everyone's position so important. that is what it is. look at it as politics as usual. it happens every time. you and i discussed us going back many years ago when you were a different network. neil: goes back. we keep going through the same soap opera. you're right. >> it is fun, isn't it? i watch the same movie many times. neil: yeah. but you know, it is not casablanca. that movie i enjoyed i think i have seen that six times. >> i did enjoy "casablanca" oh, my god gambling in the house capitol? >> really. neil: when a big time finance ear like ray dalia, when the

u.s. lost dominant power status, he explores the economy, the chinese enjoy all the advantages you have to wonder about the timing of all of that after this. where our focus is to always support the people who live and work there. because you call these communities home, and we do too. pnc bank. at adp, we use data-driven insights to design hr solutions to help you engage and retain top performers today, so you can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another, yeah, yeah ♪

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>> i think both sides recognize how terrible a military conflict would be but you can take something like nancy pelosi's trip -- neil: i was thinking about that. >> okay. neil: will that trigger it? >> the fact that we're simply talking about it, that we're so close to the edge, it is not the old days. the old days -- neil: doesn't take much, right? >> the united states used to be a dominant military power. think about it, the new world order began in 1945. the united states won the war. we had 80% of the world's money. gold was money.

we were half the world's gdp, half the military power so nobody wanted to fight. if you look at these things over the period of time, when you have comparable powers, there is disagreements it can be resolved quite often by a conflict. and so that's the nature. we're no longer the dominant power. so it becomes closer. so now when we deal with existential issues for different parties there is a risk of these things. neil: you know that was one of my most favorite interviews only because it is good to get inside someone like a ray dalio's brain, who has unique skill connecting wall street with main street but wall street with the concerns and its concerns that china, keep in mind this is almost a year ago, that china and the united states are coming to blows. that it seems inevitable in one way or the other, we are going to come to blows here. china feels more secure. we're not the dominant economic

power we were. he echoed that this past weekend. another fellow knows a thing or two of this whole connection, general jack keane with us right now. general, what he was saying almost a year ago seems to be playing out now. this notion that we assume that china needs us a lot more than we need them. we assume that they're not going to risk shaking any cages because, well they don't want to do what russia has done be alienated in the world. his feeling was they are quite content where they stand, do you agree with that? >> yeah, but i don't agree with his characterization. the reason why there is tension and conflict exists is because china is aggressive. they're repressive at home. they have concentration camps with the uyghurs, which by the way mr. dalio, issued a moral equivalency. he said, china's uyghur issue compares to racism in the united states which i find kind of

stark, totally disagree with you. the issue china's aggression is why the tension exists. it is china for the last 10 years that has been been inintimidating our allies, japan, philippines, our ally in vietnam. hundreds of fishing ships being harassed every single day, told to me by the interior minister, defense minister. the same thing happened in the philippines on a regular basis. these are things that don't get visibility. china built the south china sea islands, told obama they are for commercial, economic purposes. they're all militarized. they are there to take control of the south china sea. it is china's aggression in the indopacific region, the desire to replace the united states as the global power to change the international order that is driving the tension. president xi, in the last, last

month, three times, went after the united states as an adversary in a way that he had not in the past, implying, potential conflict. the president of the united states at best will say that china is a a competitor. i wish he would say they are adversary which i think they really are or an enemy, as they really are. no, we have to place the foot of this responsibility where it lies. that is with the chinese communist party and what their strategic objectives are. domination of the indopacific region and the world writ large and that is why the tension exists. neil: you know one of the things he did go on to say, he is not a fan of the chinese, he is just saying that he is reading their cockiness a sign he doesn't think we have the stomach for protected economic war with china. americans won't accept higher prices, maybe no available goods that comes with that, that we're

soft. we're not what we were. that america's best days are behind it. i want to stress that dalio does not believe that, that is the thinking in the chinese communist party and maybe could explain, some, i hope i get it right, general, rowdy acts, what do you think? >> well there is no doubt that president xi said this many times, and by the way my sources dealing with china are not western media and what china is saying to business leaders and many of them, you know, mouth their talking points. my sources are what the chinese are saying internally to their own business people, state-owned enterprises and also to other government officials and the reality, president xi personally believes the united states is in decline and china is on a path to replace it as the most influential power in the world. that is part of his motivation

and that is why people hike myself who know that there has been erosion of military deterrents in the region particularly, very specifically when it comes to different weapons capabilities that we should correct that as quickly as we can and replace it with strength so that china is not attempted to use violence and conflict to achieve its strategic objectives. economically the united states is still, has the number one economy in the world. and certainly we have our ups and downs. we're having a down period right now. neil: right. >> but given the cycles our economy is going through i think we will come back certainly and we'll still have a very strong economy. the fact that the united states doesn't dominate the entire world anymore economically and militarily shouldn't be surprised. the united states helped to establish a world out there that had peace and stability in it because of the international

order and raised all boats economically and what took place in the indopacific region in southeast asia has a lot to do with the united states military maintaining stability and security in that region and it added to the prosperity of those nations. give the united states some real credit for having a lot more competitors out there which i think is a better thing for the world economically than where we were before. neil: all right. does it warrant the reaction chinese are getting it now, i don't hear. i see something little more crass. general, always good seeing you, my friend, i appreciate it. >> great talking to you, neil. neil: all right by the way president biden is talking about the bailout of first republic bank. it's a bailout, that it was forced into the hands of jpmorgan chase saying all depositors at that bank are going to be protected. i don't believe that is so. i was trying to look as i was working in this segment here,

still 250,000 and under cap. it isn't limitless. having said all of that, none of this will be born by taxpayers but again, given the various government rescues that have gone on, tens of billions of dollars worth supported by federal reserve, treasury, other entities, the fact of the matter is you and i are bearing the cost of that but the president confident this will do the trick and work and everything will stablize and calm down. we hope he is right. but history as it is with fourth bank failure this year shows there are trouble spots along the way. in the meantime concern where we stand now post-covid. the republicans want to claw back about 100 plus billion dollars of covid funding that was going to a lot of businesses and others that is yet to be spent. i wonder what the owner of the festival restaurant on the upper east side of new york, thinks of a plan that was meant to help restaurant like his. does that mean the help is gone

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doors were meant to be opened. ♪. neil: certainly over the worse for covid. restaurants are back open for business, theaters are packed, planes are packed. when it comes to the covid thing it is behind us, right? with this 100 plus billion dollars of unspent cash still in hand, republicans are trying to claw that back for other uses. my next guest is saying not so fast, guys. tyler runs festival cafe upper east seidman hat tan a very popular locale. a destination if you will. he is kind enough to join us. tyler, you have overcome a lot through covid and all the problems since. how do things stand now? >> yeah. thanks so much for having me on the show, neil. look, things are turning a corner here in new york and every month it is getting better

and better. what is really killing us right now is inflation and the cost of food right now is 10 to 20% outside of its norm. once we get past that hurdle, i'm optimistic. things will really take off this summer. neil: now, what i'm hearing from a lot of restaurant owners, you might be a little different here, is that, you know, while grocery store prices have come down from their peak they're still high obviously year-over-year but for restaurants, even those who buy in bulk i assume like you, it is not, it is not going down very fast, in fact it is stubbornly, and remains stubbornly high? >> no, no the coast of things like staples, eggs, coffee, and bacon, and meat are definitely outside of their norm. like i said 10 to 20% higher than they should be. and also, services. we're talking con-ed, we're talking water, we're talking carding, they are raising their

prices we're stuck in the middle. we don't want to raise your prices. we value our neighborhood. we value our regulars. we're still putting out a 16-dollar burger on the upper east side. by far and away the best burger in manahattan right now. neil: you're not eating your product that is obvious. let me ask you about that, tyler, one of the things you hear is that, this is easing, it won't be as bad and this money that was meant to shore up and continue to provide a backstop for you isn't needed anymore. maybe in the success of festival, which is internationally recognized restaurant, that might be the case but, do you fear they're taking it away too soon? >> well, you know, my big proponent here is about small business. what we need to be doing is giving this money, these extra funds to the small businesses who are putting out the jobs for people in our neighborhoods and in our communities. these small businesses like mine are the ones in need of this

funding. neil: so without that and say that goes away entirely, play out the next few months, maybe up to a year for you. >> well, right now we're still not turning a profit but what we are is turning a corner and every month it is getting so much better, exponentially better. this summer is it is filled with optimism for me. and i just know it will be a boom here in new york city. i'm looking forward to the future, neil. i'm optimistic. what do you want me to say? >> yeah. no, good for you. you should be, tyler, obviously the question in everyone's mind in this environment whether fries come with that expensiveburger? >> our homemade potato chips and slice of dill pickle, neil. hey, if you got the time off, get an expresso martini as well, best on the upper east side.

neil: on my way now. tyler, always good seeing you. good sport, great sense of humor. always hope. festival cafe owner. >> you as well. neil: you as well. taylor riggs with us right now. i don't think, i can't see her munching down a 15-dollar burger. that is almost the size of me but, man. taylor: i do a veggie burger as long as it comes with fries. neil: yeah. taylor: making us hungry around lunchtime, neil. we'll still be hungry around 1:00 clock if you stick around for the show. almost if we're asking for 2008, neil. came off second largest bank failure and mortgage rules punish those that are responsible and give breaks to the risky borrowers out there. yes, you have a fed meeting coming up on wednesday even after the bank failure you saw this morning a lot to digest coming up at 1:00. first, more "coast to coast" next.

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neil: take a look at these poll numbers. if you're one rfk, jr., you have to be encouraged you're polling near 20% and the campaign has not even taken off.

not too shabby for a guy speaking to him last week was pulling 14%. not even a week he is up five points. tom bevan, "realclearpolitics" what he makes of this. still early, tom, a lot of people hooking for maybe another choice. what do you make of that? >> yeah. i think it shows the softness of joe biden's support. democrats like him, they support him, think he is doing a good job. they don't want him to run again. 70% overall don't want to see him run. he is running. it shows democrats would rather see you know, him exit the stage and give him a gold watch to move on to someone else. that is why you see not only rfk, jr. at 20%, marianne williamson approaching 10% in a lot of polls. neil: if you think about it, one out of three voters, given choice between the three candidates are opting for one who is not in the white house

right now. what i'm asking, how that pans out, if there is challenge to incumbent president, it doesn't go on to win. if there is significant challenge t has to be significant but what do you make of that? it is very early to your point but what do you make of this early momentum for non-democratic incumbent presidents? >> we'll have to see how it develops. clearly the establishment is moving to protect joe biden. they have already shifted the primary calendar to make south carolina first to help him. there won't be any primary debates as of right now. i suspect, maybe if rfk gets into the 30s they might have to revisit that, but right now joe biden will not be on the debate stage and so for that reason it is going to be tough. it is going to be tough for rfk, jr., to mount a serious challenge. it is tough for anybody but the way that the establishment has rallied behind biden and moved to protect him, i think it will make it all that much more difficult to have a legitimate,

serious challenge in place. neil: it is all about maybe how the economy is doing, how the world looks, we look in the world come election day. so all of that could change. your thoughts on the economy part of it? >> well, look, i mean the economy, despite the fact that the biden administration continues to step up to the podium, president says it all the time, karine jean-pierre says it all the time, it's great economy. our policies are working, the public does not feel that way. data is pretty clear. his job approval rating is in the low 40s. on economy it is 35. on inflation it is even lower than that. we see all sorts of numbers, how the slowdown, folks are struggling. a piece today talking about how repossession of homes, and cars, and people are really struggling. to the extent that continues to mount, if we see it in unemployment numbers, if we see unemployment start to tick up, i think that will also be another sign that folks out there are really struggling with the economy. that is one of the issues.

joe biden and democrats were not punished for that in 2022 but they might be in 2024. neil: we shall see, tom above ven, thank you very much. that employment data due out on friday. we'll have more after this with a majority of my patience with sensitivity, i see irritated gums and weak enamel. sensodyne sensitivity gum & enamel relieves sensitivity, helps restore gum health, and rehardens enamel. i'm a big advocate of recommending things that i know work. and i remember kind of thinking like, "oh my gosh, i think we could be sisters."

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