2008, 2014, 2026 susan? >> 26. stuart: ashley says? >> 1920. stuart: i'm going to say 1926. it was 1914, sports fans and there you have it. okay, i just got to get this in. it's official. elon musk has confirmed that linda yaccarino will replace him as ceo of twitter. he tweeted linda will focus primarily on business operations , while i focus on product design and new technology. looking forward to working with linda to transform this platform into x, the everything. don't get that but i will. "varney" & company is over. "coast to coast" starts now. neil: this was the day the president was set to meet again with kevin mccarthy and other key congressional leaders on the debt ceiling. not happening. but we're told behind the scenes things are happening.

we just don't know. why louisiana senator bill cassidy is hopeful that cooler heads and maybe a cooling off period will prevail but what if nothing prevails? what if they don't strike a deal in time? will the folks at zillow think that mortgage rates will sore immediately to 8%. marketed real estate bill pulte fears they could be off and rates could go even higher than that. larry kudlow says that does not mean republicans shouldn't stick to their guns, just prepare for some political guns ablazing he's here to layout his case for cutting spending once and for all. all that and elon musk pick to run twitter, not who you think of course but who really thinks when all is said and done elon musk still isn't running the show. we report one of the world's richest men isn't likely to find a place to hide. welcome everybody i'm neil cavuto. happy friday to you. well of course no talks today among the key players but those who are really calling

shots and trying to cobble together something, they are burning the midnight oil even though, well, it's afternoon on the east coast. it's not exactly midnight and who burns oil these days, but that's a whole separate issue. grady trimble with more from washington. grady? reporter: but, neil, the fact that they are working on a friday is actually notable here in washington. so you're right. even though the meeting between the president and congressional leaders was postponed to next week, staffers are still working behind the scenes while publicly , the two sides are digging in. >> how has the president handl ed this into exact same way he's handled the border. he ignores it and hopes it goes away. apparently president biden doesn't want to deal, he wants to default. reporter: for his part, senate majority leader chuck schumer sent a letter to his democratic colleagues saying we welcome a bipartisan debate about our nations fiscal future, but as the president leader jefferies and i made plain to our republican colleagues, we

must not do so under the reckless threat of catastrophic default by the hard right. despite the public posturing, there could be some wiggle room in certain areas. house republicans have indicated the two sides are at least discussing permitting reform, spending caps, and clawing back unused covid money. a white house official told fox that we should take that meeting being delayed as a sign of progress, that "the talks" behind the scenes between staffers are actually going well , although it's unclear how close or maybe how far they are from an actual deal. of course, neil, the x date when the u.s. will no longer be able to pay its bills, is getting closer and president biden is set to leave for japan for that g-7 summit next week, so the clock is ticking on a lot of different fronts. the president has said he will cancel that meeting or that trip to japan if there's no deal before then, so we shall see. neil? neil: yeah, i think they have five or six actual days, all

the parties will be together before the june 1 deadline, so we'll see how that's all negotiated. thank you, my friend, grady trimble in washington on that. peter tuckman joins us one of my favorite people on this planet to talk about how stocks are moving and why they are moving. peter? if just looking at the markets, they might be concerned about banks. they are certainly concerned about will the fed hike or not one more time this year even though we thought they were done a couple weeks ago. this issue of a default, it doesn't seem to be on their radar. they don't seem to be acting like it's a panic attack in the making here. what do you make of that? >> so look. i always say the market tells us what it thinking about the information and obviously the market is trading a little bit horizontal with a slight negative posture to it so obviously, look. we've seen these defaults and this sort of dance into the default the number of times you and me over the years and usually at the end of the day at the midnight hour the deal is done. is the market telling us they are not confident this will happen again? no, because the market would

have been then selling off quite radically. we have seen a couple of days with a little rational enthusiasm around the economic data, but then the markets have sold off as is happening today. the banking sectors taking the market a little bit lower. so the market doesn't seem to be engaging a lot of fear around the debt ceiling story. i think it's a little more fearful about the interest rate, the runway coming out of that and obviously a little bit of contagion around the regional bank store chi is still not going away. neil: so let me ask you about the what if possibilities, like a zillow raising the interest rates start rocketing mortgage rates to over 8%. jamie dimon having these regular meetings among his colleagues at jpmorgan chase, in case, just in case. what do you think of all of that >> you know what? i haven't really focused on that that much. i think it's sort of funny to watch how is the market a leading indicator or lagging indicator relative to the interest rate raises we've had? we've had obviously about 12-15 months of aggressive interest

rate raises. obviously, they are petering out a little bit. we're down to 25 basis points. at the end of the day, they've still not given us a clear. they had an opportunity in the last meeting, last week, to say look, we are done for now and we're going to give it a break and i think the market would have responded really favorably. the worst thing they could really do is say that and then have to go back to raising them once again, because people have their, are very, you know, their expectations are a big thing. people don't like their expectations to be disappointed, and so sort of keeping it a little bit sort of passive and not giving them a distinct answer to that question, i think sits in their favor. neil: let me ask you a little bit, that is you know, not only the stock market arranges but the nasdaq this time included, so we have seen the nasdaq resisting that sell-off pressure what do you make of that technology has proven to be sort of like a port in the storm throughout this , you know, these storms. >> well, you know, i just heard

on one of your, another agency here that the s&p is up 7% for the year. if it wasn't for a number of the major names in the ai sector which i consider part of tech the market would only be up 2%. look, the tech sector has been, you know, it took us out of the covid sell-off in 2020. it also took us down in 2022 when the interest rate environment started to rise because it's less favorable for that sector for sure. we've definitely seen a lot of those stocks which were the dogs of 2022 come off the matinee big way. look at nvidia got down to 103 trading at almost $300 here. we've seen a lot of that sector sort of lead the market higher, right? look at where we are relative to a lot of the fear and anxiety around the credit crunch, around the banking crisis, around the interest rate environment. the market is actually at 4,133 in the dow, so the market is actually acting quite well

relative to all the fears and all the people who were out there saying the doomsday, we're going to look for a 10% correction. so i think we have to look at the market, how the market is reacting. the market tells us what it thinks of the information around here, so we have to sort of get a sense of, you know, and also let's think for one second, neil. the aggressive raise we've had over 15 months in the interest rate we've never given the market and the economy, as a time to actually absorb and assimilate that information. i think that's what the future will show us. neil: real quickly, it used to be a couple of weeks ago the fed hike rates they might go away and might not hike the rest of the year. now the june meeting comes up. we've got strong economic number s, not all but that they just might raise rates in june. regardless of your view on that, what would the market reaction be to another rate hike that soon? >> you know what? i kind of think all eyes are, all people's expectations are that they are going to pause now and once again, they do do that

in june i think the market won't react favorably. neil: interesting, peter great catching up with you feel well, my friend, thank you. >> always love talking to you, thanks, neil. neil: peter tuchman. want to go to larry kudlow, my friend the host of "kudlow" and this fine network. larry you've been through washington and debt ceiling quagmire and your old boss donald trump working with nancy pelosi and always able to cobble together two years of sort of an agreement where they wouldn't have any of these problems that are cropping up now, but we often see this and then given these numbers, they get closer and closer together. how do you think this is going to end up? larry: well, i'm sure it'll go down to the wire. it wouldn't be any fun if it didn't go down to the wire, so that's one of the things i learned. we had one in 2019, and then i guess we had a partial one in late 2020, but you know, the reason the presidential meeting was canceled is because

mitch mcconnell had to go to a funeral. that's the reason. the staff, as grady reported, the staff is still meeting. you're not getting the high level people from the white house. you're getting some i'll call them mid-level people from omb and nec, but they are negotiating, and i also think grady was right. this is from my sources. i think the covid clawback, i'm not sure what the number is. it could be as low as 50 billion it could be as high as 100 billion. i think that's going to be part of the package. i think a spending cap, whether it's 1% or not, will be part of the package. i think the permitting bill hr-1 to unlock the oil & gas spigots i think that has bipartisan support. that's going to be part of the package. you know, neil, i think it's time for the fed to pause and everyone should focus on the real problem right now, which is excessive spending. i mean, cbo just came out and it looks like there's going to be

almost a $2 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2,023. we are seven months through, april, seven months through the fiscal year. spending is running over $400 billion above last year. this is crazy. spending is part of the inflation problem, and i wish the federal reserve would say in whatever terms they want, that a good deal to reduce spending or the growth of spending, it's not actual, it's the growth of spending, that would help the fed to keep interest rates down, and i think that's the main task right now. they should pause and all the pressure should be on a deal that will include, you know, yes , raise the debt ceiling by all means, but on a deal to reduce the growth of spending and put some supply side growth into this economy, because we

are in stagnation. we're growing less than 1% for the last five quarters. that is not good. neil: you know, i like how you termed it too, just control the growth of spending because it's just running away, and the fact of the matter is when each side competes with the other to say how much they are going to save over 10 years i don't know about you, larry. i don't even know what i'm going to have for breakfast tomorrow, let alone how things look in 10 years, but i mean they are talking about one side says we'll save 4 trillion in 10 years in spending, but the fact of the matter is under both strategies here you're looking at debt growing at least another 10 trillion during that period, with those presumed savings. is there any way out of this? >> well, look. you know, you have to chip away and you really should do it program-by-program. i mean, the aggregates are important, but when you get right down to it, the appropriation committees have to sit down and start allocating among the priorities.

overall, you must cap, you must put a cap on the rate of growth of federal spending, which has gone sky high in the last couple of years. look, covid was one thing, but now, covid has been gone for quite some time. the bulk of covid has been gone for almost two years for heavens sakes and we're still spending like drunken sailors so we've got to stop that and my point is i want to link it to the fed, neil. lower spending would help the fed. it would help diminish inflation pressures. i think it takes the pressure off the fed to keep raising rates. they ought to pause. the money supply is collapsing. the yield curve is deeply invert ed. those are bad signs. commodities indexes are falling. i mean, i think the feds job is done. now it's up to the fiscal side, the budget side, to help the fed to put some incentives into the economy and to slow down spending. neil: i know you think you've been saying that you think we

can avoid and cooler heads will prevail and we can avoid a default but they are already raising the different scenarios if we do, if we don't make good on an interest payment to a bond holder or pay social security recipients, et cetera. the fallout be swift. you've heard from the zillow folks who say mortgage rates would sky rocket of 8%, you heard jamie dimon worry and have regular meetings with his staff, what if meetings i guess if it comes to that. do you think it will come to that and what would the fallout be, if it did. if it did. >> look, you know? i just don't buy these horrific scenarios. revenues, look. on a day-to-day basis when you look at the cash management, revenues are always coming in, and there are revenues to pay the interest on the debt. i mean, just trust me on this. neil: and that be the first priority to avoid that, right? you pay those bond holders the interest, that would avoid a default. it's debatable even though

uncomfortable, do not make good on the other obligations but that's the primo one, right? larry: well look they always have revenues to pay social security. these are trust funds. they always have revenues to pay medicare. i don't want to get into second guessing how they might allocate revenues, but you know, let me go back. i mean, there's some very wise people on wall street who would argue, you know, spending is so important. if you look out in the next 10 years, the next 20 years, the next 30 years, we just cannot continue to spend the way we have, all right? that includes all programs. if, you know, if an interest rate payment was 10 days late, and the price of that be a major major spending reduction, it probably be a good idea. i mean, i don't want to default. nobody wants to default but you've got to focus this not on

these horror scenarios. i mean, it's very disappointing to see the partisanship that you showed on the screen from chuck schumer. that is not the right attitude right now. everybodies in place. the polls show clearly, by like 70%, neil, that people want spending relief to be part of a debt package. the polls are so clear on this. let's put that partisanship down and let's do what we can right now. they could take about 130 billion off of this years budget spending. they could take up to 500 billion over next years just by putting a cap, by clawing back the covid stuff. right there. those two things, and then if you put some permitting in, that's a pro-growth solution. this climate change stuff, i'm not a climate denier but the bidens are going too far. we have to have a balance here. we have to have an all of the above program.

they cannot just shutdown willy-nilly gasoline powered cars. they want to shutdown half of the american power system with this latest epa thing. this is crazy stuff. this is not scientific stuff. these are priorities that are very damaging to the american economic growth to employment. you see these unions are up in arms about it. they are normally biden supporters, so we've got to have some cooler heads, some analysis , and understand that fiscal policy is badly in disrepair and we must repair it. neil: got it. i'm going to put you down as a maybe on the administrations climate change views then, larry , because you weren't quite clear there. larry: [laughter] neil: look forward to seeing you in less than four hours. larry kudlow, dissecting all the numbers as only he can. we've got about 109 point hit at the corner of wall and broad and focused on the nations border of course title 42 is gone now. they were fearing we would see tens of thousands heading to

the border and fast. that might be happening, but they aren't getting over the border, nearly those numbers right now. why that might be, after this. your best defense against erosion and cavities is strong enamel- nothing beats it. new pronamel active shield actively shields the enamel to defend against erosion and cavities. i think that this product is a gamechanger for my patients- it really works. so, you have diabetes, and your glucose is heading good thing the new dexcom g7 can alert you before you go too low. now, that's more peace of mind

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more than that since title 42 went away. bill melugin, i don't think this guy has slept in at least 24 hours. he's been monitoring all of this from the border at brownsville, texas. how are things looking there, bill? reporter: neil, we were out late last night past midnight expect ing to see a large surge of migrants. we ended up not seeing surge whatsoever. take a look. we were with a group of republican senators last night as they got a tour from the border patrol union. they got taken down to the edge of the river and we were there in the minutes at midnight as title 42 dropped. we were at a major illegal crossing area where thousands of people had crossed in the last few days here in brownsville but all we saw on the opposite side of the river were migrant camps with campfires and we heard music playing from the other side of the river. nobody crossed. take a listen to what texas senator ted cruz had to say. >> there are 22000 illegal immigrants right on the other side of matamoras. they had fires going, music going and partying because in a

couple hours title 42 is ending and all 22000 will invade this country and joe biden and kamala harris will be the last mile of the human trafficking network and take them to every city in america. reporter: and again, a mass- crossing never materialized last night but that doesn't mean it's not going to at some point. here is what we did see. take a look there were masses of migrants gathering in matamoras on the mexican side of the river but take a look on what they saw in the u.s. side. the texas national guard yelling them on a mega phone "do not cross" some guys tried to cross but we didn't see anything on a major scale or anything that jumped out to us as out of the ordinary and keep in mind, just because we didn't see anything here doesn't mean there are not illegal crossings happening elsewhere. there absolutely are. case in point, take a look at this video in raynoso. we know tens of thousands of migrants gathered in mexico border cities waiting to cross. this is a migrant shelter where thousands of migrants gathered and it appears the migrants are

in somewhat of a holding pattern if you will. title 42 is gone now. now they are just trying to figure out what they do next. are they going to stay or are they going to cross? it appears it's kind of a calm before the storm potentially, neil, if we do end up seeing crossings and back out here live even though we didn't see anything major here in brownsville last night, the illegal crossings taking place across the country are still at record highs. the cbp source telling me yesterday was the first day in a few days they've had under 10,000 illegal crossings, but as of this morning, cbp still has about 25,000 migrants in federal custody and multiple border patrol sectors are over-capacity so still huge issues going on. back to you. neil: that says a lot right there, bill, what you say it's a good day if we got it under 10,000 so far, so the sign of our times i guess. bill melugin, thank you very much. all right i want to go to the national border patrol council vice president. john good to have you back with

us. how do you think it's going thus far? >> i mean, it's kind of at a stand still to a degree. there's a lot of uncertainty. the new regulation went into effect yesterday. we've got this injunction over in florida, the texas national guard at the border and then the secretary staying the borders not open, which we all know is not serious. that's a joke, but the problem is, none of us really know how this is going to play out. these new regulations, they're brand new so it's going to take time for people to figure out how to work through them and around them and as we get more people crossing and they start getting released into the u.s. they tell their family they made it and their family and friends will then cross like they always have. so i think people are just kind of pausing briefly to see what's going to happen. neil: you know, i know the administration has a plan and a series of measures to try to speed up the process. one is an app that you can download that speeds up the processing for migrants, but that assumes a, they know what is actually going on because many who are captured don't know what's going on and

it thought that with title 42 going away, there have been tiktok and all videos saying that the u.s. is open for business, and title 42 goes away. the borders opal that so they are confused. what do you make of that? >> yeah, and that's right. this app was supposed to be the fix, supposed to get people to cross the border at ports of entry in an orderly fashion. i just saw something yesterday, dhs said over 83,000 people have been processed through the app. that's like 700 or so, i think under 700 a day over the past four months. when you have like half a million people in mexico waiting to cross, 700 a day is nothing so of course, the app isn't working out because people aren't waiting and they are just going to swim across and border patrol has to deal with them. neil: now, one other feature it seems to rely on the honor system. i could have a bad interpretation of it, john, but if they tell you, you cross the border and you try to break into this country, you must voluntarily go back and if you voluntarily go back you could

try again. if you don't, you can't try it for five years. well, that doesn't seem to work on paper to me, but you're the expert. what do you think? >> you probably are talking about a voluntary return. neil: exactly. >> it's called a vr. it's not something where we just say hey would you please go back we actually take them to the bridge and send them back. it just doesn't really carry any consequences. it's not a formal deportation. it's just a record of us sending them back, so in that regard it doesn't really make a difference neil: well, all right john, keep us posted i know you have busy days ahead, you always do but thank you for all you're doing john anfinsen, national border patrol vice president, we have the dow jones industrial, about 130 points right now we're very closely following these debt talks going on, whether the principles are a part of them or just some of the underl ings. we're told they might decide to punt on this or at least find a way both sides could sort of re group a little later on.

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neil: all right, a housing hurdle you don't hear discussed too often. what if we default. what if they can't come to an agreement in the next few weeks if that's the time limit they are using then what? well the folks at zillow are saying mortgage rates would immediately sky rocket to at least 8%. others have said maybe a lot higher than that, because the full faith in credit in the united states would not be what it ever was, or ever will be after that, if it were to happen, bill pulte with us on that. what do you think on that, bill? >> neil, i think if it goes up dramatically that will be the case but i don't expect that will happen. i really don't. i think that mortgage rates actually being high right now, neil, has created this situation where the biggest competitor to homebuilders, neil, believe it or not, is existing home sales, and right now, people do not want to give up those low

interest rates at which they bought a lot of these homes. neil: there's also the issue that, you know, you could look at a roughly 6.5% interest rate and say well, you know, that's higher than it certainly was, but i don't know if i ever had you with my wife and i paying 13.5% on our first mortgage in the 80s. that's a bargain, so perspective is everything, but i'm wondering what the zillow folks are saying you start defaulting. all bets are off and it's a wild and crazy environment. what do you think? >> i mean, hypothetically but remember again, neil, your 13% was on a lower average sale price. pulte homes for example, six or seven years was $424,000 was roughly about the average sale price and now it's way higher with these big builders so this is a very different market than in the 80s when you had homes for let's say $200,000, so when you look at it in raw

dollar terms, it's not really fair to say well, we were once at 13%. now we're at 4%. you also have to look at the average sale price of the homes these days. neil: well you don't have to start correcting me and embarrassing me on air, but you're actually right. i never thought that other end of the equation but let me ask you a little bit about housing in general. the financial environment, everyone hopes you avoid a default. that goes without saying but we have come to occasions where even when we avoided that, rates have gone up, or our credit rating as in the case of 2011 went down and i'm wondering just as someone who knows money very well, whether that's a worry for you, whether we had another type of s&p downgrade now. how would we respond? >> i think it is. i think it's a problem. i think on a relative basis we were in inflation for a while and now we're in deflation. if we see job numbers tick up

that will actually be a problem for housing and it'll be a problem for the rest of the economy so if you believe this idea that we're kind of in a relative deflation compared to the inflation we were in, and you get this debt ceiling crisis , it could, you know, you could see a dramatic, i think, down tick temporarily in the s&p and who knows what that will do with the job market. neil: how do you like the markets these days? >> you know? i think that in many ways there's not a lot of alternative you've got this situation where obviously bonds and interest rates are, they look attractive right now but neil, i mean, if we still have persistent inflation in 10 or 20 years are you really better off owning a bond or are you better off owning the s&p 500? i'd take the s&p 500 all day long but that's just one man's opinion. neil: got it. it's your perspective in age, long term for me is some timerly next week, so -- >> true, very true. yeah, i'm 34. neil: okay, i'll play along.

bill, great seeing you. thank you very very much, bill pulte on all that the pulte capital ceo who knows of what he speaks. so does senator bill cassidy. he's in on where this could go. the debt talks go. he thinks that cooler heads will prevail but maybe we'll need a cooling off period. we'll explore that with the good senator right after this. ♪ what's the next chapter? that's the real question. with fidelity income planning, a dedicated advisor can help you grow and protect your wealth, even when you're not working. they'll look at your full financial picture and help you create a flexible strategy designed to balance growth potential and guaranteed income. can stop worrying about the future designed to balance growth potential and enjoy the life you've created. that's the planning effect. from fidelity.

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>> look, the president needs to step up, i'll just say that. house republicans have put a deal on the table. the president may not like it. counter with a deal. don't give us like i want a clean debt ceiling. we know that multiple times in the past, when democrats have been in charge of the house, they have used that debt ceiling to make some progress in address ing our nations fiscal system, fiscal order, fiscal whatever, so mr. president, step up. neil: all right, now, you're quite right, and when joe biden was a senator, in 2003-2005, when george w. bush was president he opposed of raising the debt ceiling and fought it like the devil. republicans had to find a way around that. we avoided calamities then but i always think senator we're so close to tripping up. >> yeah, but i do think we'll avoid calamity won more but by the way could everybody on wall street that supports joe biden,

and there's a lot of folks, just call. hey, joe, remember me? i was with you on the campaign. we need you to step up. i think the american people making clear their concern could make a big difference here and of course call your congressman too. call your congresswoman, but i do think the president needs to show some leadership and that's why i press on the president. neil: all right, now one of the things that republicans have been pushing for is to put a lid on spending, only to know more than 2% increases for years to come. others have said that's unrealistic, and that an inflation terms it's really like democrats are saying no way we'll go with that. what do you think? >> well, of course what the democrats are saying is a decrease in the rate of growth. the president's proposal for the budget is a tremendous great of growth. so if all you're doing is decreasing the rate of growth that's actually different than decreasing in absolute terms, but i will say there's some low

hanging fruit the president could offer. there is about a half a trillion dollars he is proposing for student loan forgiveness. now, neil, keep in mind we already have programs that if you lose your job, if you become disabled, if you don't make very much money, you already get relief or forgiveness of your student loan. that's already in place. the president is proposing a half a trillion dollars more of that. so on top of that, which we already have. low hanging fruit be for the president to say hey, guys, just like i think the u.s. government should pay its debt that it had taken on willingly, those people who actually can afford to pay should pay the student loan debts they've taken on willingly , and here is a half a trillion dollars that i will take off of our future indebtedness by just making that common sense reform. there are things the president could come forward with that could make this easier. neil: do you think that for now, the more realistic solution be

to delay, to pushback this debt ceiling thing until september? >> well i'm going to support mccarthy. now if you told me that they agreed to a two or three-week or maybe even a two month delay i would accept that, but it has to have a different dynamic. the president could have engaged in this some time before, and he just keeps on repeating giving a clean debt ceiling. i'm not going to otherwise do anything. i really think president biden is looking for a campaign issue, not to be the leader of the united states. he would love to campaign against irresponsible republican s. mr. president? you need to be a leader, not just somebody running for re-election. neil: should hear what he says about you guys, senator. we'll see how it all sorts out. senator bill cassidy, beautiful state of louisiana and hopefully he's right. cooler heads prevail and maybe we push this back a little bit, but something does eventually get done. in the meantime, taylor riggs with what's coming up on "the

big money show." taylor: neil i'm kind of like you this feels like groundhog day. we still have a border problem, still have a debt ceiling crisis problem. none of those things have been fixed yet. we're all still waiting for them we'll be having representative claudia tenney of new york joining us to breakdown all of those issues but the good news is we do have a solution for one thing. it's twitter, and the new ceo we're going to be breaking all that down at 1:00 but first more "coast to coast" after this. meet the team... behind the team. the coach. the manager. and the snack dad. all using chase to keep up with their finances. the coach helps save goals here, because she saved for soccer camp there. anddd check this out... the manager deposited a check.

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neil: all right, 163 hitting the dow so far we'll still have a down week as things stand for the major averagings. nasdaq could bucket a little too early but hold on to your hats here. do people still wear hats? i guess some do but hold on to whatever because things could get bad and fast, stock market cycles editor and publisher, good to see you, peter, what are you looking at that has you so worried? >> well, the one big technical thing i'm looking at, neil, is the vix index, and we're in a fascinating position right now.

as your viewers might know, the vix index is kind of a sentiment measurement because it measures premiums on puts and calls on the s&p itself, and when people get very bearish, they're willing to pay more premium and the vix index goes up. when they get complacent, and they say oh, there's nothing to worry about, there's no reason to buy puts here, the vix index goes down. the vix index, neil, is currently at levels that it very seldom gets to in a bear market. now i have to emphasize the qualification of in a bear market. if for some reason i'm wrong, and we have turned into a bull market, the readings will be completely different, but in a bear market, for the last quarter century, when we get down to these levels in the vix index, we're either at or very close to an important bear market top. neil: so what would that mean?

if the fear index isn't showing as much fear, what would that mean? >> well, it means that people are complacent and that at times when people get complacent in the market, and are not worried about any kind of market decline of substance, then they don't try to protect themselves and those are the times historically we've noted those are the times when the market starts to decline again within a bear market. we are at those levels if we are still in a bear market, where markets have no upside potential you know, one of the last times you and i spoke, neil, was on i think it was february 9. the market had topped on february 2 and we're now talking what, three little more than three months ago, never gone above that february 2 high. neil: interesting. >> on the other hand, we haven't gone down either. if i look back, this is before

we came on the air i looked back at february 9 and we're almost exactly now where we were then, so in three months we've gone nowhere. what does that do? that frustrates both the bulls and the bears. i'm frustrated, because i'm not saying i want the market to go down, but my indicators tell me that the market is at great risk here and the fact that it's not going down is frustrating for me , because it means that at least so far, my indicators have not been right. there's been no great risk so far. neil: you know, you're a brilliant technician so you don't look at the macro things or people don't talk about the debt and you don't talk about all this. it's noise out there. it's not unimportant, but you are looking at the technical underpinnings and right now, they are telling you what? >> well right now, as i said, the biggest technical underpinning right now is that vix index, okay? that is what's really troubling for the whole market if we are

still in a bear market. neil: in other words if everyone is feeling one way, the contrarian in you should say that's a bad sign. >> yeah, it just shows complacency. neil: got it. >> usually, usually, if we're going to have a big market move to the upside, that comes from people withdrawing funds from the market and then all of a sudden saying oh, we're scared but what if it starts to go up, man, i'm ready to commit funds to the market and so that swing in capital back and fourth, cash positions high, cash positions low. the vix index would suggest now that cash positions are quite low because no one is worried about a market decline. we saw that first part of the bear market, neil, that went from on the s&p from january 2 and into the june bottom, in fact you and i spoke, i think the day of the june bottom, and mr. bear here was very bullish at the time.

i told you on the air that i look for at least a month or two of a market rally which we got, but since then, the markets done virtually nothing. its gone basically sideways. we haven't gone anywhere. neil: it's amazing i hope you're wrong on a lot of this stuff but you've been pressing on a lot of the developments. peter what makes it scary is that incredible voice of yours. you have a great voice but it's scary. it puts darth vader to shame. >> that's what i try to do, neil. neil: exactly exactly. all right we'll keep an eye on it peter great seeing you again, please have a good weekend my friend an iconic figure in the markets peter eliades. he's an institution. all right, the latest on elon musk's pick to run twitter. does that mean elon musk himself is not? after this. ♪ mara, are you sure you don't want

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adam: adam: elon musk is no longer twitter ceo. >> reporter: good to see you. elon musk always making news on a friday. the new ceo of twitter lending the notion was the chairman of advertising and partnership, musk took to twitter to announce the news and welcome

the new ceo, will focus primarily on business operations. he will focus on product design and new technology and be involved in the platform and went on to say he's looking forward to working with her to transform the platform into the x everything apps. she was an appointee to one of donald trump's special counsel's also a member of the world economic forum. it underscores the bipartisan push musk is seeking, she's well respected in the advertising and media world, a good pick for the news media space but she will face challenges, free-speech proponents are not overjoyed, despite sources indicating musk and she are much on the same page. the take away is musk is acknowledging the importance of advertising. we have seen him seek other revenue streams but revenue will be key for at least the immediate future.

neil: i can't imagine him sitting out and letting her run the show. >> reporter: i doubt it as well. neil: this announcement did surprise a lot of people but given her connections to the advertising agencies, having worked with politicians on both sides of the aisle, donald trump and president biden, she might be his version of secretary of state to marshall goodwill. on capitol hill and the wall street. we will see how that goes. i will leave you with the dow down 158 points. what could be happening with the banks so far today and debt talks? folks at "the big money show" are covering it all. taylor: what is interesting, could be a positive for tesla as well, human musk is able to focus on the company and hand off the reins to twitter