>> i think you could probably make that argument overall. we did see a "wall street journal" poll about that -- gerry: right. >> we saw a huge spike in spiritual i. i think wherever you can find community and you can find faith in something bigger than yourself, that's a good thing. but, obviously, the data is clear about the impact of having two loving parents, whatever, man, woman, whatever it is. on the positive growth of a child. gerry: okay. we've got to go. sorry to end on a rather down note, but thanks very much, indeed, to jessica tarlov and lee zedden. i'll be back next week here on "the wall street journal at >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etfs.

jack otter: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. is your portfolio lopsided with all the money flowing into just a few us tech companies? richard bernstein says it is time to consider unloved sectors in international stock. the green energy pushes ramping up. 's at the end road for traditional oil companies and what should investors consider? move over, bud light, there's a new beer brandon woke jail. we begin with 3 things investors ought to be thinking about right now. stocks ended up for the week despite a friday pause on debt ceiling negotiations. is a deal still possible? how might the market react. footlocker, shoplifting is partly to blame. walmart is the winner after a week of retail earnings reports. morgan stanley's ceo announcing he will step down while goldman's ceo stops by barron's offices.

on the "barron's roundtable," ben levisohn, carleton glitch and jack hough. we would rather see the government solve problems and exacerbate them but despite headlines about the debt ceiling the market doesn't seem worried. ben: it is actually optimistic. i'm not sure if we took a vote of everybody here in the studio if anybody would feel that way but the market went up one. 5% this week. even when republicans call off the talks on friday the s&p dropped 0.1%. that is not a market that's frightened of what is going to happen. look at this and say a bigger deal will get done at some point even if we say there's no way that is happening. jack otter: does that mean if and when we get one nothing happens? ibly17 it depends what the market gains but the more the market does gain into that, the more we have to worry that it

will bsl on the news reaction. there are sectors that could do well. one of the reasons big tech perform as well as it doesn't worry about taking out debt of its own if things go bad. if we see a big deal, maybe sectors like the industrials which are dependent on the economy could do well. jack otter: if the government can borrow those bills that will be a flood of insurance. footlocker gets kicked in the head and earnings down 23%, 24%. jack hough: deeply disappointing sales and lowered its guidance 25%. it was in rough shape before this. the stock hasn't made money and years. there is too much mall exposure, too much dependence on nike, they want to sell more shoes.

there's a lot of exposure on a sneaker trend with young people lining up for lunch today on overpriced exclusive sneakers. it looks bubbly. management on the earnings call called out economic head winds, small tax refunds and it might sound surprising, they put out only one shoe at a time. are thieves hopping on one foot? the ceo says organized retail crime is focused on the clothing. it is increasing, the company is focused on cracking down on goods and reselling and keeping its workers safe separate the. i received a study this week that talked about that, 56% of retail workers feel unsafe at work partially due to the rise in shoplifting. jack otter: what did we learn from other shoplifters? ibly24 there was weak guidance from target and home depot and walmart but stock reactions are

muted which to me says investors are getting what they expected. jack otter: carlton, you wrote about james gordon and morgan stanley. maybe 12 months at most he's in the job. what do we know about wall street? carleton: i wonder if james read the cover story and realize his work was done. he had a tenure of a decade at morgan stanley. after the financial crisis he tried to run the bank and now he seems to be going out on a high note, staying on his executive chairman. there's three contenders for his spot. we saw the stock at it differently than the bank indices so a little uncertainty as an overhang on the stock but overall it is in stride. jack otter: after the crisis morgan pivoted hard toward wealth management meaning financial advisors. the morgan stanley advisors have been gaining a bigger share and doing well. interestingly goldman sachs has

been watching that, they bought an independent advisory and pivoting toward the consumer but it has been a rough road. what did you learn when you sat down with david solomon? carleton: this was before james gorman made the announcement. we questioned david solomon about the path goldman sachs is taking andrew comparisons to morgan stanley. he admires what james gorman has done very much. goldman is trying to get more into the asset and wealth management business. there are four or five years into the transformation where james gorman had 12% because wealth management is more durable source of revenue than other markets which there was a lot of hope there would be a rebound this year. with rates being high, inflation ceo uncertainty, looking at that being a 2024 story. ibly205 there was no djing while he was here. tech companies are dominating the market.

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and no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. so i consolidated it into a low-rate personal loan from sofi. get a personal loan with low low fixed rates, and borrow up to $100k. sofi get your money right. >> what is the natural rate of inflation and how should investors adjust their portfolios right now? joining me is chief investment officer richard bernstein. great to have you in studio. you manage $16 million for individuals, institutions and you were formerly chief investment strategist from merrill lynch. i want to ask about friday's report by the new york fed that said despite our concerns about inflation they see inflation returning to a natural state of

less than one%, continuing on the downward thing we saw pre-covid. what are your thoughts on that? >> that's very optimistic. the reason it is optimistic as i'm sure -- i haven't seen the report but geopolitics stays the way it has been, has 5, 10, 15 years, we all know geopolitics are changing, globalization is contracting and what globalization did for the us economy was constantly increase competition for many years and when you increase competition you put downward pressure on prices. as globalization contract we will see upward push on prices, fewer competitors means higher prices. the fed is not accounting for that. ibly25 not as cheap in indiana as china. another story in the news is the debt ceiling and let's hope that we actually solve this problem. he wrote an interesting note in which you said even if we avoid

default that doesn't mean it is free for the us economy. >> default is terrible. there's never been a default in fixed income history where anyone said that's good. that is never happened. but it just downgrade meaning did we go from aa to single-a or aaa to aa or whatever it is, that is not good either. what happens is as your debt is downgraded, you pay higher interest costs. in 2011, a debt downgrade from that point almost to the day the united states started paying 100, 200 basis take up -- points of extra interest costs not just for the government but mortgages to corporate municipalities. everybody started paying more. not only are we concerned about a default but a debt downgrade which many aren't talking about.

ibly25 the more we push at the closer we get. let's pivot to markets. you have commented on narrowness, the stock market is going up but that's reliant on a few stocks. >> it is a basic thing to watch, this is the narrowest market, the number of stocks being performed is so few. this is the narrowest market we've seen since the tech bubble in 1999-2000. i would say the implied economic forecast, 3, 5, 10 companies that grow over the next time period, there's only that few number of companies. that's an amazingly bearish view of the world. i don't think people should be that bearish. whether you 're looking at the non-tech companies in the united states are looking overseas there has to be growth opportunity somewhere. it is so bearish. ibly205 where can people find this? >> if you think about things like energy infrastructure, utility infrastructure, there's

all kinds of things going on. real estate is changing away from services to manufacturing. outside the united states, we have big positions in europe and japan. there are plenty of opportunities, endless markets are really cheap. jack otter: it is hard for investors to put money in europe or japan. it's an old economy, japan has gone nowhere since 1989. why do i want to put money their? >> one thing viewers don't know is in 2022, 70% of non-us markets outperformed the united states. the number of people who don't know that shows how geographically myopic portfolios have become. the reason these countries are outperforming, they don't have the leadership that we have here. they are not concentrated on technology or communication or things like that but broader

industry exposure, and a lot of different industries. jack otter: you are diversifying in terms of industries. >> absolutely. when you go overseas it is not just europe sectors commute talk about europe growth and value but there's plenty of opportunities. jack otter: the last decade 2,000-2010, the s&p went nowhere but if you are invested overseas it did okay. >> the period you just described, think of it as a seesaw. the seesaw is tilted, the sexy stuff. the other side of the seesaw, and the seesaw is going to adjust. where are gas prices headed in

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jack otter: the push to transition to renewable energy is gaining momentum but big oil isn't going where. fossil fuels are the predominant energy for the foreseeable future and a good investment opportunities. it's the barron cover story this way. all the talk is renewable this and renewable that but i won't have trouble finding a gas station anytime soon. carleton: we will have too little oil for much longer than we will lose our need for it. you have a lot of talk about the european union not investing in energy and a lot

of esg investment but we definitely need oil. the us will be our predominant producer shale even though it is plateauing, 12 million barrels a day, it's closest rivals, saudi arabia and russia, 10 to 11 billion and don't reach the us levels anytime soon. jack otter: if you said ten years ago the us is ahead of saudi arabia and everybody else in oil production but it is peaking. we are talking geo-dynamics, people want to know am i going to pay more or less for the same thing? ben: people have productions of oil prices, anywhere from $75, to $90 a barrel. not looking a lot of movement. they are biased a little high, if the economy does we can, you

will see oil fall. of china's economy doesn't pick up, there has been a recovery but it hasn't been great. gasoline is right aroundd in the early days of the russian invasion. ben: natural gas is a different dynamic in that market. ben: there has been a lot of talk about exporting natural gas to europe, companies are pumping natural gas in anticipation of this happening. they won't have the infrastructure until 24-25. they have fallen $5 to $2, should stay low and the risk is you don't get these projects up, they get deal 8 and you have too much natural gas and the prices falling. jack otter: the dynamic is bad for investors and good for homeowners.

where do you see investors in the oil and gas? ben: time and energy and permian resources, both of them have a lot of oil inventory and could get bought out and well managed. the oil drillers have been dead money forever. you see rates go from $200,000-$400,000 and that could mean stocks could double too if oil prices stay right here. they like the exxon but did more, european investors don't come around to it but that is a risk. and there was accidental petroleum, warren buffett keeps buying that every time it drops, taking the stake to 25%. it means the you purchase the stock when it dips and you know it will come in and that will be a good thing. jack otter: is there any opportunity in renewables? carleton: you want some

exposure to this space but energy exposure, looking at 15%, new energy being 15% of it. we won't see these things be a meaningful contributor to 2030. a lot of stocks looking overvalued. they are saying we are learning about the industry before we go in. three names with the perfect mix of the two spaces would be totala energy, shall, you are getting the traditional production, but with an effort to lower their carbon footprint. jack otter: you write about renewable opportunities. jack hough: the hydrogen cycle is about fuel cells, now it is about greenifying fertilizer and diesel. the inflation reduction act provides $100 billion in subsidies for making green

hydrogen. put that in context, it's a really big number. you can make green hydrogen, and carbon in the air, you can make it cleanly by zapping water with electricity. i did not major in chemistry in college but you need green electricity from wind and solar. it will be a long time before it is cheap enough for. and hdr oh is down 69% since it launched two years ago. jack otter: you have a pair of stock picks. the culture wars are now with miller light.

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beyond ordinary etfs. visit foxbusiness.com/"barron's roundtable". jack otter: i'm not personally offended by women in bikinis, but i keep it separate from my choice of beer. not always possible these days. jack hough: i know what you are referring to. miller light appears to be getting bud light, that was women's history month in march, the brewer had an ad with our female comic that marks past beer ads that used bikini-clad women. with thousands of complaints miller took the ad down. they thought would die down but podcast or joe rogan called the company woke him. he's in charge of that sort of thing. there is no indication yet that this will hurt sales, but bud

light is making room in the woke dog house. the message is clear, be careful about mocking the manliness of certain things like light beer or guys trying to save 35 powers by drinking corn flavored seltzer so they could fit into their skinny jeans. jack otter: a nice transition for your stock pick of the week. carleton: we've seen shares of blood selloff in light of the controversy, it's too cheap to resist, it is down half from its high in 2016. despite the negative press, the boycotts and whatever you call it, it gets 30% of its profits from the us and canada so not much impact. the company hasn't been able to lift its dividend which if they were in serious trouble would not have happened. jack otter: bud light is a tiny portion of that 20%.

ben: applied materials is a company you've never heard of. they make the stuff you need to make microchips. they've been doing it well but they had an earnings report where there's a little bit of weakness in their memory business even though the guidance they put out, stock fell, looks pretty good, it could break out. jack otter: it helps make computer chips. put a good business. thanks. to read more check out this week's addition of barron.com. that energy story is interesting. follow us on t politics anymore. that's why sean left. ♪ >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is maria bartiromo's "wall street." maria: and happy weekend to all. welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. i'm maria bartiromo. a high stakes meeting of the