tv The Claman Countdown FOX Business May 25, 2023 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
3:00 pm
i couldn't help but think of that song yesterday. essentially, the marching orders were to go out there and give the public some sacrifice talking, right? -- jive august the, right? make sure you signal either9 that the increases in the target range are likely or that first increases -- further increases have been ruled out. i mean, listen, they go out there, and they use this as a tool, right? talking. i prefer straight talk, to be quite frank with you. instead we get lines like oh, my love, you're so good, treating me so cruel, there are you go with your fancy lies. jive talking. liz, i just don't need it, i like the bee gees' version. liz: i'm just trying to stay alive. [laughter] charles: i got it. i'm with you, you're good. i got you. liz: we are both alive and kicking, right, charles? thank you very much. fox market alert, dueling headlines at this hour, both
3:01 pm
showing serious muscle. need to start with nvidia. look whats the doing for the nasdaq. thetic tech-heavy index is rocketing higher by 192 points or 1.5% thanks this huge part to nvidia's stunning gain right no- [laughter] of 76 points or 25%. so the chipmaker rocking not just the semiconductor world, but the tech stock universe on its stunningly strong forecast. the stock which, by the way, went public all the way back in 1999, is hitting an all-time high after the company said its revenue for the current quarter will come in 50% higher than estimates and that it's kicking up production to to the meet the demand for its a.i. chips specifically. so the semiconductor etf of which nvidia is a component, it is getting a 6% lift here on the news. year to date the semis look really powerful, gaining 31% which merely blanks out the 35%
3:02 pm
loss they suffered last year. reminder, time to buy is often whenning something is most unloved, even dethe surprised. not a lot of -- despised. not a lot of love in the halls of the capitol this hour. fox news just caught up with one of the republican negotiators this afternoon who said, quote, there will be no deal today the on lifting the debt limit. north carolina republican patrick mchenry saying, quote, we're at a very sensitive moment and not yet in the that done deal zone. with just a few grains of sand left in the debt ceiling hour glass, house members are about to clock out for a one week recess. in this as a second ratings agency now in the past 24 hours puts the united states' creditworthiness on negative watch. morningstar dbrs, this is the fourth largest credit ratings agency, it's a big deal, joining fitch in warning that the d.c. bickering is getting too close ott to the june 1st deadline. the dow earlier was shuddering
3:03 pm
more. we have the dow down about 3 3213 points -- 213 points, still down 63 thanks to microsoft which, of course, is a big, considered a big a.i. stock, but the s&p is going along for the nasdaq's ride courtesy of, yes, nvidia. s&p 500 gaining 31 points. so much action in this final hour of trades means we need to head to the floor show. traders dutch masters and scott bauer are joining us live. scott, you're at the cbo where they're trading stocks, options, futures. no doubt we've got market success but also market stress. what kind of action are you seeing on the floor. >> >> yeah, no doubt about it, liz. actually here it's a little bit subdued, which is very odd given the circumstances here. but volatility is elevated, it's elevated from where it's been over the last few weeks, but it's not at a point where there's a lot of panic. where there is a lot of panic,
3:04 pm
however though, and where volatility is i don't want to say off the charts, but extremely elevated is in the treasury markets and especially in treasury options. and if what you're seeing there there, liz, there is a huge skew in treasury options both to the out of the money calls on the upside and out of the money puts to the downside. and what traders and investors are looking for is there is going to be something big happening here one way or the other with the debt ceiling. and looking at these treasuries to make a huge move one way or the other. and, you know, you look at what you can do with a one month t-bill, also getting 6% right now. i mean, that is absolutely just -- liz: well, to that end, scott -- >> and maybe there's -- it's there for a reason. liz: i noticed something, and i wanted our viewers to call this, i called it party of 5% but now it's the party of 6 for the 5%ers of all of the t-bills
3:05 pm
here. they're all yielding more than 5%. what is that telling you right now? scott? >> yeah. liz: scott first and then dutch. >> okay. so for me what it's telling me is the government can't sell their debt. there's no buyers. so what they have to do is keep lowering and lowering and lowering the prices of these, the-bills which -- t-bills which, you know, heir the inverted to the yield, so yield is going up, up, up. there are just no buyers out there. people are concerned, and it's unbelievable that the the u.s. government will not be able to pay this debt. now personally, i like going out, i'm not doing anything in the 1-month even though you can get almost 6%, but i think if you go out, 6 months or so, liz, boy, if the u.s. government can't pay their debt by then,
3:06 pm
we've got bigger problems. liz: dutch, i want your thoughts on the part of 5% and then also get to nvidia with. go ahead. >> yeah. i think for the first time in a long i'm we've got bonds that are providing enough of a yield to provide a little bit of competition for equities. it's been a long, long time the, hasn't it? so i think that, you know, i think that we're all going to -- we're going to pay the debt. i think that a lot of this fear mongering has been kind of ginned up. i think we have longer until, than june 1st. i just think it's kind of a political thing, and i'm not paying a lot of ages to it. yeah, nvidia's really what i want to talk about, you bet. liz: okay. part of the reason the dow is in the negative is because this nvidia-triggered sonic boom seems to be to be shattering intel's windows. what are you doing today? it almost feels like you're that contrarian guy who is -- >> yeah.
3:07 pm
liz: well, as you put it, you're shorting you forya. >> yeah. you know, the last -- you forya. the last time we were on we said that tech was going to be the leading us out. we already had seen a buy trigger in the tentacles on the nasdaq. now that's following through because 25% of the s&p is technology, and this is just an epic if quarter, okay, liz? i mean, i'm talking about an epic blow-up, and it is 100% warranted, okay? they deserve this. this was insane. liz: right. >> it was absolutely wonderful to see somebody monetize a.i. the way that nvidia ya did. but all semiconductors should not be thrown in the same basket, and they kind of are odd to. i hate buying on spikes, i really hate buying spikes like this. the trader in me says i want to be positioned before this kind of a move and be a seller, and if i'm not positioned on the long side -- which we were not, by the way --
3:08 pm
liz: okay. >> -- i want to be shorting the, i want to be shorting this kind of you forya -- liz: let me just say the semiconductor index is spiking so much is because invid e ya is a component. it's up 25%, an absolute blowout, knocking the cover off the ball. >> yes. liz: the shorts are getting killed. today alone heir losing $2 billion plus, i'm assuming on paper, but year to date they're down $8 billion. so isn't it a little dangerous to be shorting semiconductors overall, leapt alone nvidia?? -- let alone nvidia? >> it is except when you get a blowout like this and you look at nvidia from a historical standpoint, you have had blowoffs in the past, and they to do retrace, okay? i'm not looking for a huge retracement, i just want to see it retrace, you know, 35 points, i cover my short. and i'm not shorting nvidia itself. i would not do that. liz: okay. >> i don't like that idea at
3:09 pm
all. [laughter] liz: i would think so. scott, dutch is not paying too much attention -- well, he's out there in vegas with his carnivore buddies and their motorcycles. [laughter] he's not paying too much attention 20 to what's going on in d.c., but those guys are leaving dodge. the house members are done for the next week, i believe. and that also encompasses the june 1st deadline, although speaker kevin mccarthy has said everybody should be to get back into town next week if, indeed, there's a deal upon which on the voted. what should we be looking for in the market if there are starting to be more stresses? >> well, what i'm looking at right now, liz, if you look at volatility in the market for tomorrow's options versus next tuesday after the holiday -- liz: yeah. >> -- there is a massive, massive disparity. volatility next week is actually very expressed. so i'm -- depressed. i'm looking at selling short-term vol and buying it for next week. whether we get a move higher or
3:10 pm
lower, it can be a very, very large move. i think volatility is way too low. i also think it's unconscionable that they leave washington without this deal being done. liz: well, the democrats -- >> i agree. liz: -- are saying that but, go ahead, dutch, you think so too? >> i agree also, they ought to wrap this thing up, this is just kind of silly. i want to give a shout-out, a lot of the carnivores are watching you today from las vegas are. we're doing another academy if here -- [laughter] and we all love liz claman. liz: you know what? i -- well, listen, love right back at them. i know they're con -- contrarians, and then you've got the the balance of the reality of the team at the cbo right there with scott because with you're seeing some of the serious action. great to have you both, scott, dutch. we're looking at the dow paring the losses even more than, down about 29 points. we do want to alert you that we have a live camera fired up right now in the capitol's
3:11 pm
statuary hall. that's what you're seeing right now, waiting on house speaker kevin mccarthy to give us the latest on the debt ceiling negotiations. he has not told republicans to cancel their flights out of washington this afternoon, so many are packing up for one week, the recess. even as we get perilously close to the june 1st deadline to the raise the country's borrowing limit. as soon as speaker mccarthy gets in front of the camera, we'll take it. now that a second ratings agency has joined fitch in putting the u.s. on ratings watch negative, have the who all but forced the fed to pause its interest rate hikes for now? the markets are saying, not so fast. but what does the woman who headed up the fdic think? coming up, i've got an exclusive interview with former chair sheila bair standing by live as the clock runs out to. "the claman countdown" is just getting started on thursday. stay tuned, we're coming right back. ♪ ♪
3:12 pm
electric dream days are here. come in now and experience the intense thrills and incredible offers on any of five mercedes-benz electric vehicles. including two years complimentary charging and pre-paid maintenance. the vehicles are all electric. the feeling is all mercedes. the choice is all yours. but hurry, these dream days are only here until june 5th.
3:13 pm
3:16 pm
liz: warning, warning, credit rate warning. first, fitch last night placed the u.s.' aaa credit warning on negative watch, and now dbs morningstar has put the u.s. on review as well. will the warnings force the fed's hand to to pause interest rate hikes? at at this hour looks like the markets are saying, absolutely not. right now fed funds futures show about a 50% chance of a 25 basis point hike in june. that's a big with spike compared with an 8% chance back on may 5th. and also back on may 5th where there was a 75% probability the fed would cut rates at the
3:17 pm
september meeting, forget pause, cut. there is now a more than 60% chance of a rate hike. the guessing game has banks, particularly the regionals, in limbo because, of course, financial market uncertainty hurts them in a way, outdistanced way. let's bring in former fdic chair sheila bair who knows just a thing or two about all sizes of banks. sheila, are these downgrade warnings from fitch and dbs morningstar going to force the fed's hand to pause and, if not, should they pause? >> right. well, i don't know if -- the fed isn't forced by anybody. [laughter] thed the fed's pretty powerful, and they make their own decisions, but i do think they're taking a data-driven approach. and we do have, gosh forbid a default or even a downgrade which will put even more pressure on short-term rates. that may be doing the fed's job for it, and to do another fed
3:18 pm
funds overnight rate increase on top of this tightening that's going on because of this debacle has our debt limit fiasco, i think that they would have to seriously think about that. so, yeah, i mean, a lot of it, will we be downgraded? what's going on now, it's hard to see they wouldn't. liz: do you think a downgrade is right around the corner if this thing isn't settled, let's say, by tuesday? >> yeah. well, they certainly are taking it down to the wire. and it's the, as you were pointing out earlier, it's really pushing up short-term rates, inverting the yield curve even more. you borrow short and lend long, that's hard to maintain in this kind of environment. there's a lot of pressure on deposit rates already. ironically in the short term there may be some positive impact, at least anecdotally, i get messages from people saying heir going to take the money out of treasuries and put them in banks because hay think banks
3:19 pm
may be safer -- [laughter] with this debacle that we call our debt limit debate. we'll see. it's just this is uncharted territory. we went through this many 2011. eye onically -- ironically, for a little bit there was a lot of turmoil after the s&p downgrade, and ironically, treasuries actually went down briefly because the world was in you are the moil, but it was still -- full -- turmoil, but it was viewed as a flight to safety. i don't know that's going to happen. i think this has been going on for so long, and people are really getting worried about it. liz: the 2-year yield and the 10-year yield, the yield curve inversion which, for those of you that don't really understand that term, it often screams recession, but it's been doing that for nearly a year now. it's the now at 71 basis points. that is how huge the gap is at the moment. what because that tell you -- does that tell you if you short of shift the light right on regional banks who are very
3:20 pm
sensitive to all kinds of rate movements? we saw one go under, silicon valley bank, then signature bank, then first republic had to be bought by jpmorgan because they were caught flat footed when rates moved so high. >> that's exactly right. and so concern that's right. the more acutely interest rates go up, the bigger those unrealized market losses occur on the low yielding assets that banks already have on their books. and also it increases pressure to raise the interest they're paying on the deposits which is going to come press their interest margins. so it does create a very challenging environment for the banks. i still think that the vast majority of them are going on the able to weather this, but it's not an easy environment to be managing right now. liz: we had investor kyle bass on the other day, and he said because of -- and this is something completely different, but the commercial real estate loans that many have on their books because regionals tend to write those loans in much bigger ways, several more -- these are
3:21 pm
his words -- several her will go under. where do you stand on that? >> yeah. well, i think kind of the good news and the bad news about cre is that a lot of it's coming due to be refinanced, so if you have a borrower that can aboard the payments, they can refinance at a higher rate. but the problem is at least with office in urban retail, the vacancies rates are very high. you're probably going to have some borrow ors who cannot pay those higher rates, so banks are going to have to negotiate with them. so, yeah, it's going to be a problem -- liz: define problem. i don't mean to push you too hardt on this -- >> no, that's okay. expwhriz. liz: liz does that mean some are going to go under if. >> so i think, yes. eventually it's going to take some banks down. will it be a lot of banks? no, i don't think so. but over the next two years, we're going to have failures. part of that's going to be due to interest rates going up so dramatically, plus a combination of cre problems especially in an office and urban retail. and then, of course, if we have
3:22 pm
a recession, all bets are off because then you'll see, you know, delinquencies and defaults going up across the board. hopefully, the fed will be able to engineer a soft landing, we won't have that. but, again, it just makes it soen inexcusable what's going on now with the debt limit talks which is putting even more pressure on interest rates and more turmoil in the financial sector. liz: what does the government need to do to fix this situation? >> yeah. well, i think they need to stop authorizing and appropriating so much money. [laughter] the debt limit's just authorizing debt obey for spending they've already -- liz: well, that's what the republicans say, enough already. >> yeah. but then they -- the debt limit's the wrong lever to use -- i'm with the republicans on spending and, actually, if we slowed spending in a targeted, sensible i way, it would ease pressure on the fed. i mean, all this deficit spending is creating excess demand in the economy thats' also driving inflation. dial some of that back. i'm really surprised the republicans aren't using that argument. reducing spending is a good way
3:23 pm
to fight inflation and her targeted than these brutal, across-the-board rate increases the fed's been putting us through. liz: that is basic i con 101, stop throwing out so much money so demand goes down. sheila, great to see you. we are keeping an eye on those regionals. many of them are moving lower today, but it is not just regional banks feeling pain. retailers are also facing a financial crunch of their own. dollar tree is plunging double digits after earnings. a major with reason why the company is trimming its profit forecast? that's ahead in pop stocks. plus, our own edward lawrence standing by live at the white house to get you the latest breaking news on the debt ceiling negotiations. a white house spokesperson is putting out a comment right now. he's going to get that that for you in just a moment. plus, why is the stalemate impacting the economy? closing bell, 37 minutes away. we are coming right back. ♪ ♪
3:24 pm
i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones ♪ you got a minute? how about all weekend? let's go. ahora! i'm a miami hotel. i'm looking for someone who loves art deco elegance, good times, and unexpected flavors. someone who likes it hot but knows how to keep their cool.
3:25 pm
a white-sand beach where you can see the sunrise? way better than whatever you were going to binge-watch this weekend. and you could be here in half the time. find me at hotels.com at adp, we understand business today looks nothing like it did yesterday. while it's more unpredictable, its possibilities are endless. from paying your people from anywhere to supporting your talent everywhere, we use data driven insights to design hr solutions and services to help businesses of all size work smarter today. so, they can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another ♪
3:27 pm
the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam who make...? ...everyday products... ...designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder - that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that... ...i need a breakthrough card... like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more...
3:28 pm
plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases! and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas... ...a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours. liz: fox market alert, when knows, maybe the dow turns positive. with just about 32 the minutes left to the trade, at the moment dow is now down just 15 points after having lost more than 200. investors, health get to some single stories on stocks here, dollar tree's tock is down 11% and near a 52-week low. the discount retailer missedded earnings estimates and slashed
3:29 pm
its profit outlook. it joins a growing list of retailers hurt by inventory shrink which is another fancy way of saying theft. collar tree says it's also -- dollar tree says it's also getting hit by a shift in demand to lower margin food as well as legal costs related to the a rat infestation at one of its warehouses, okay. but the world's wealthy still seem to be shopping, the parent company of ralph lauren, polo and chaps, is up 5.7% after reporting a big with profit beat and revenue that topped forecasts. op shopping declines in north america and europe were offset by strengthening demand in asia. new seasonal collections resonated with most affluent shoppers where demand has remained resilient. guess also getting a boost in its latest report thanks to international demand, right now up 8%. shares are looking this strong after posting a loss of 7 cents
3:30 pm
per share, still beating estimates though. revenue also fell if about 4% year-over-year. guess did see weakness in north american demand, but a restrengthening in asia and europe helped the situation. the retailer also announcedst the raising quarterly dividend -- this is a big one -- 33% to 30 cents per share. and dish investors are homing in on a report that the company could start selling wireless phone plans through amazon. the stock is gaining 7% after the "wall street journal" reported the plans could be unveiled as soon as next month. the satellite provider needs to insure u.s. regulators by june 14th that iphones can operate on its 5g network first. no word yet on how curb kish and amazon will -- dish and amazon will opinions the partnership. less than a week to go until the u.s. could run out of cash. up next, the excessive but important spending that put the u.s. on the brink of dethe faul,
3:31 pm
crucial government bills that could go unpaid if an agreement can is not met soon. former trustee of social security and medicare charles blahhouse joins me next. and speaking of paying bills, the guest on my podcast this week, josh johnson, moved to chicago to pursue his comedic career with little money to the his name. he had no bills because he had no money. he slept on friends' couches and went weeks without a proper meal in order to pursue his comedic fever dream. you have got to the hear how he turn an open mic gig at a local comedy club into late night tv writer and, finally, the big stage, the most-viewed comic on comedy central. josh telling his story on my newest everyone talks to liz podcast episode. closing bell, 29 minutes away, and now dow is down just 2 points. what kid i tell you? this could happen. we're watching it very closely. oh, there it goes, it's positive.
3:32 pm
♪ ♪ so it's decided, we'll park even deeper into parking spaces so people think they're open. surprise. [ laughs ] [ horn honks, muffled talking ] -can't hear you, jerry. -sorry. uh, yeah, can we get a system where when someone's bike is in the shop, then we could borrow someone else's? -no! -no! or you can get a quote with america's number-one motorcycle insurer and maybe save some money while you're at it. all in favor of that. [ horn honking ] there's a lot of buttons and knobs in here.
3:33 pm
♪ ("next big thing" by west rose) ♪ ♪ yeah-yeah-yeah-yeah ♪ ♪ ready? go ♪ ♪ i'm coming out with a bang ♪ ♪ blowin' up i'm the next big thing ♪ ♪ everybody want my shine ♪ ♪ if you want a piece better get in line ♪ ♪ ain't nobody do it like this ♪ ♪ go so hard no i just don't quit ♪ ♪ we don't just have everything... we have your thing. ♪ ♪ i'm coming out with a bang ♪ ♪ blowin' up i'm the next big thing ♪ ♪ ready? go ♪ what if there was a community of like minded people ready to support you when you need it most? christian healthcare ministries is an organization with over 40 years of trusted care who understands the importance of family. a group that sees you for who you are regardless of your health history. offering affordable healthcare cost solutions that could save you up to 40% on your healthcare costs. learn more today at your chm dot org about healthcare that
3:34 pm
puts you in control. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.
3:36 pm
we really don't want people to think of feeding food like ours is spoiling their dogs. good, real food is simple. it looks like food, it smells like food, it's what dogs are supposed to be eating. no living being should ever eat processed food for every single meal of their life. it's amazing to me how many people write in about their dogs changing for the better. the farmer's dog is just our way to help people take care of them. ♪ ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪
3:37 pm
liz: a fox business alert, lawmakers packing up their offices and whatever they need to take off capitol hill for the holiday weekend without a deal on the table to either cut spending or raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. negotiations really coming down to the wire. we are six days away there a catastrophic default that could turn markets upside down and pull the economy into recession. edward lawrence is live right there at the white house. ed edward, could lawmakers get a deal cut before -- it doesn't -- why am i even asking that? [laughter] i mean, i don't think so, do you? >> reporter: well, no. it's possibly not going to happen today, but the house speaker says it could be anytime. i think the market's reacting to the good vibeses we're kind of hearing. nobody, the rhetoric is not turning nasty, and that is a good sign. this all comes down to spending and how much to raise spending.
3:38 pm
now, a fox news poll is showing that 57 president of americans want to -- 57% of americans want to see spending cuts with some sort of debt ceiling increase. 27% say it should be a clean increase. first, the credit rating from fitch is placing the u.s. on the credit negative status at the moment, that's one domino to fall before a down grade. but the president rea assuring markets about 90 minutes ago and making his case. >> i putrd bard a proposal that will -- forward a proposal that will spending by more than $1 trillion, that freezes spending for the next -- [inaudible] on top of the nearly $3 trillion in deficit reduction i previously proposed through a combination of spending cuts and new revenue raises. >> reporter: so, again, comments not nasty, so everyone's being asked about this. boston the federal reserve president susan collins today the says she hopes the debt ceiling will be increased. >> not raising the debt ceiling would imply that we would not be able to pay bills that we have already committed to to.
3:39 pm
that would be a type of a default, expect consequences be in uncharted territory. the consequences for that could be quite severe. >> reporter: she's not a voting member this year, but neel kashkari is, the president of the minneapolis federal reserve says that current fiscal policy is unsustainable. >> we always have clinical challenges here at home. if i compare our challenges to those of other major economies, especially europe or china, i think we're in a very -- we have very strong things going for us. we need to deal with some of the near term challenges that we have, we need to get our fiscal house in order, but these are things that are within our control to address, and i'm cautiously optimistic that we will address them. >> reporter: treasury secretary saying again they have to have something signed into law by next wednesday in order to avoid, as early as that deadline on june 1st. back to you, liz. liz: very quiet in the halls of congress, although we still have a camera standing by many statuary hall -- many statuary
3:40 pm
hall, waiting to see if kevin mccarthy -- there's a live picture. we'll see if kevin mcthink gets in front of the camera. he's very intimately involved as speaker of the house. ed warmed, thank you -- edward, thank you. in one week the federal government is supposed to to send out checks totaling $98 billion. but if lawmakers cannot reach that deal to lift the borrowing limit, uncle sam runs out of money, who's at risk of not getting their checks first? according to the bipartisan policy center, on june 1st medicare needs to send out $47 billion if in reimbursements. military and civil retirees are waiting on checks worth $12 billion. another $12 billion many veterans' benefits is owed. and here's a biggie, on june 2nd social security has a $25 the billion bill due. and lastly, $2 billion is supposed to go to medicaid. but the man who ran two of those huge entitlement programs says
3:41 pm
while many americans desperately depend on them, they are exactly where the government spending problems lie. joining me now first on fox business is man who worked on both sides of the aisle, george mason university her cat that center charles blahouse. sir, you have run medicare and, of course, social security. you've been intimately involved many all these kinds of dramas. you are precisely saying that those are the problems. so how do we fix something like that? >> well, that's a great question. i think, first of all, we have to to acknowledge what the problem is, right? part of the problem we face right now is political. neither political party feels much to of an incentive to acknowledge the actual sources of the problem. the political incentives are such that each party wants to emphasize its differences with people across the aisle. that's why you hear democrats frequently talking about tax policy, because they want to the craw distinctions with
3:42 pm
republicans on tax policy, and you frequently hear republicans talking about annually appropriated end spending where they have very sharp differences with the biden administration. but the reality is that none of those things are the correctives to our fiscal predicament. we have fundamentally a spending growth problem. we have a problem with the federal government's spending is rising faster than our national economic output, and all of that spending growth is concentrated in the areas of medicare, medicaid, social security, to a lesser extent the affordable care act. nothing we do anywhere else in the budget is going to repair the fiscal situation unless we moderate the growth in those programs. if we fail another that, then these crises are going to continue to recur, continue to woren. liz: well -- worsen. liz: well, how do you moderate the spending in social security? do you raise the retirement age? what is number one thing we could do right now that americans would accept? >> well, the late senator patrick moynihan used to say
3:43 pm
social security is easy, it's juris difficult. -- just difficult. [laughter] intellectually, it's a much simpler problem in a sense than medicare or medicaid, because with hose you're dealing with thorny issues of health care policy, and everyone knows how complicated those are. social security is just dollars in, dollars out, right? and there's three variables there, the amount of tax revenues that it collects, the rate of growth in the benefit formula and where we set the eligibility ages. and it's almost certain we would have to deal with all three of those if any sort of solvency solution results for social security. liz: okay. i don't know about you, but i could not look a military veteran in the eye and say i can't give you your check. this is going to the trigger a domino effect when those people who depend on those retirement checks and, of course, social security as well don't get them. they then are late on their rent, then the landlords who are expecting the rent are late on
3:44 pm
their real estate payments. there is just so much that could go wrong here. >> there absolutely is a lot that could go wrong. and, you know, unfortunately, if to you play around with a bomb long enough, you risk it going off in your face, and there's a little bit of that going on here. now, with respect to social security, for example, the largest ask most expensive and important of these retirement programs, the situation is complicated. to a first approximation, even if we were to hit the debt limit, you should be able to send out the social security benefit check, and the reason for that is social security pays benefits right now by cashing in bonds, treasury bonds that are held in its trust funds. now, it increases the debt held by the public to to make the cash available to do that to social security. but at the same time, every time it cashes in a bond it lowerses the debt held by the social security trust funds. and the debt subject the
3:45 pm
statutory limit happens to include both are publicly-held debt and the debt held by the trust funds. is so from that perspective, finish be a wash and it shouldn't be a problem. problem is that's theoretical, and in practical reality it's more complicatedden than that because there are timing issues. the federal government has to first make the cash available by borrowing in order for the social security administration to be able to redeem a bond held in these trust funds. and it's where those timing issues come into play that we run the risk of a problem. scholars have looked at this, and i think there is a feeling there is a way to manage it, but it's complicated. it involves the managing trustee of the treasury, the treasury secretary basically creaming social security -- redeeming social security bonds in advance of paying benefits in order to make sure cash is available. but it's tricky, and it hasn't been tried before. liz: you have worked for presidents on both sides of aisle. who do you think gets pinned with this one if with we
3:46 pm
default? >> oh, well, there's plenty of blame to go around, right? i mean, i don't think -- first of all, i'm not a political progress knost cater or a political -- prognosticator, so i don't know how the public will regard it, but until certainly be a failure of the political system across the board. liz: throw all the bums out, that's what my dad -- [laughter] heir trying. we're watching. let's hope they try a bit harder. charles, thank you very much for coming on. >> thanks for having me. liz: well, the predator becomes the prey. famed activist investor carl icahn has seen his wealth fall by more than $15 billion since hindenburg, a short-selling outfit, alleged that his company used ponzi-like economic structures at his company. what is going on inside icahn enterprises at this hour? as stock plummets? charlie gasparino has been working his sources. he's going to the break it next. ♪ ♪
3:48 pm
♪ choosing miracle-ear was a great decision. like when i decided to host family movie nights. miracle-ear made it easy. i just booked an appointment and a certified hearing care professional evaluated my hearing loss and helped me find the right device calibrated to my unique hearing needs. now i enjoy every moment. the quiet ones and the loud ones. make a sound decision. call 1-800 miracle now, and book your free hearing evaluation.
3:49 pm
gold is an investment that delivers returns and protects wealth. with millions of ounces discovered and growing, your investment possibilities with nighthawk are endless. think beyond. (vo) while you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering your topiary talents at a children's hospital — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you give back. so you can live your life. that's life well planned.
3:50 pm
we moved out of the city so our little sophie could appreciate nature. but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes) (chainsaw continues) (daughter screams) let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family. what would that reality look like? well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity... and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch. municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free, now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh.
3:51 pm
if you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-217-3217. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free. with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income... are federally tax-free... and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217. liz: shares of activist investor carl icahn company, icahn enterprises falling nearly 15% at this hour, following a
3:52 pm
allocation made by hindenburg research that it used ponzi like infrastructures. bill ackman weighing in on the accusation. what is it like inside of icahn enterprises right now, charlie? >> i should point out at the top, i put a call into carl's assistant, no comment. called carl's residence he thought maybe he might pick up. i haven't heard back. these are my sources that purport to know what is going inside of icahn enterprises. it is owned 88% by carl. there is public float. the guy says carl borrow es against his holdings. sells issue of dividend. he takes the dividend. at some point if he is not performing that ponzi scheme, alleged ponzi scheme would end. carl would say this is a lie by a short seller.
3:53 pm
he has put out some broad, some very i would banal comments, nothing specific. here is what we know from sources close to the matter what is going on. they are planning, our sources are, sources are telling the fox business network a counterattack against hindenburg research and short sellers. what they told me, look what they did to ackman over herbalife. after ackman attacked him he went after ackman. liz: he was long herbalife, ackman was short herbalife. >> there is a gameplan he is trying to develop off that herbalife long position and attacks against bill ackman. i tried to get granular with these folks, what? it could be anything based on their nods, clearing their throat three-times indicating yes, it could be a lawsuit based on reporting false information.
3:54 pm
it could be, you know, carl can buy back the stock, right? close a short squeeze so to speak. liz: this is a 18-year low on the stock. >> i know. i'm just telling you what they're talking about. i'm not taking sides here. i'm literally telling you what they're talking about. i asked one person who purports to know what is going on and this is what he told me. icahn is planning something that these guys will never forget. so i think game on very soon, okay? we'll see what it is. obviously somebody is going to be right and something is going to be wrong. liz: sounds like a threat from jimmy the two can or a mobster. >> carl is not a mobster. >> uncle carl. he is a tough okay activist investor. >> you know billions upon billions i returned to investors? liz: i'm not arguing are that. it gets fisticuffs. >> he is taking his lumps now. he is keeping a low profile. liz: which is unusual.
3:55 pm
>> it is. he is also, my guess he has got lawyers telling him because there is an sec investigation that came after this lawsuit, you know. don't say anything that could potentially get you in trouble from what i understand not only is that unusual, there is going to be something. liz: hindenburg though has, has been too many rodeos, they would cross their ts, and dot their is would they not? >> you know, listen i'm not saying that they have done anything illegal. i'm just saying that you know, he is planning something to go back -- listen, bill ackman didn't do anything illegal going after herbalife. he was investigating, some of his comments about herbalife being a pyramid scheme, things of that nature. it was investigated. they didn't charge him, you know, it depends how far they went out there on the truth scale. i don't know. i'm in the middle here, know what i'm saying? liz: very interesting to see, icahn who got a victory today
3:56 pm
with illumina. >> yes. liz: icon enterprises got approval to have one board seat for i will lumia. that is hurting their stock. he is complain about that. >> we're all sitting here. icahn watchers of us all, i know icahn forever bill ackman, i don't know hindenburg. i'm a little shocked he isn't saying anything. carl, if you want to come on the air you're always welcome. liz: he can come on the show, carl. >> we'll reach out to hindenburg and carl and ackman. when they went after each other didn't end up too well on ackman. liz: terribly. >> terribly on herbalife. bet against carl icahn, better have your is dotted, ts, crossed because this guy is no joke. he has been around the block a
3:57 pm
million times. he butted heads. he has sharp elbows and from what i understand, again, didn't hear this from him directly, these guys better watch it. liz: gotcha. >> what does that mean, these guys better watch it. liz: again, jimmy the tucan. by the way marlon brando's character in the movie. the freshman. >> that was a great movie. liz: it was hilarious with matthew broaderick. >> charlie the tuna. liz: charlie the tuna. it's taken. you want to talk about the real power of markets, this chipmaker powering up the nasdaq and the s&p, powering up both the indices. the dow is down 31 points, dragged down by intel which some perceive to be behind the curve when it comes to a.i. chips. nvidia is the one well ahead of that there. while many investors have their
3:58 pm
eyes on the chip-makers, the "countdown" closers sees a lot of potential in the chip equipment-makers. he manages 1.2 billion in assets over at hudson valley asset advisors. which chipmaker. there are not that many chip makers? >> we like kla-tencor. the chips coming from intel, dgahundreds, this is about 10,000 a chip. this company has four times market share of anybody else. they basically correct any imperfections. it is really a yield play. when you're building a chip, when you were building chips you have wafers, x thousands chips. you want to get the highest yield possible. liz: the chip equipment-makers are agnostic. they will sell to nvidia, they will sell to advanced micro devices correct? >> correct. >> they are inured to any individual problems to individual chip-makers. >> that is correct. that is correct.
3:59 pm
these guys have lithography technology that is. these guys are able to accommodate me. that is why they have so of the market share. liz: you have to be amazed by nvidia and this sudden explosion. not only did they report great numbers, they say the current quarter will be 50% bigger in sales than analysts expected all because of these a.i. chips. >> liz this is the same thing when apple came out with the ipad, i'm sorry the ipod. it's a game-changer and it is not just there. remember these guys are basically an arms dealer so to speak f you're google, amazon or the players at any of the other major players in the a.i. market looking to use it these guys are agnostic. so they will be selling chips to anybody. liz: listen, we got to get you here. we got about 30 seconds left. washington, d.c., they're running for the exits for the holiday weekend. no deal yet. what do you expect monday with the markets? >> i think we're really close. you have to get to
4:00 pm
june 15th, all of sudden quarterly tax filings come in. if we get to that date. it will be close. right now 130 billion that's left. i heard you going down sequencing what will go out-of-pocket. they still have 88 billion they can borrow against from various places within the government. liz: limping along, which is not what we expect of the greatest country in the world at the moment a aaa rating but on credit watch negative. folks, here we go. here is the closing bell on this thursday. the dow looks to settle in the red. [closing bell rings] look at the s&p, up 35 points. the nasdaq propelled by nvidia, the chipmaker with a.i. sparkle in it. up 212 points. that will do it for us. we'll see you tomorrow. ♪ larry: hello, folks, welcome to "kudlow," i'm larry kudlow. if i said it once i said it a thousand times, the presidential election will be about
94 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
FOX Business Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on