justice. you saw, for example, the presumptive next mayor of philadelphia was the only candidate who ran in the democratic primary on wringing backstop and frisk -- bringing back. you saw in new york city eric adams won on a tough on crime message, so i do think that the writing is on the wall for the progressive criminal justice -- gerry: we've got to go, unfortunately, but my great thanks to sarah and philip, and i want to offer a salute to the brave men and women of our armed fors on this memorial weekend who defended the freedom of this nation. thank you very much to them. i'll be back next week with more commentary here on "the wall street journal at large." thank you for joining us >> qualcomm sponsored by global x etfs.

jack otter: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get that behind the headlines. the default deadline approaching with no deal passed through congress yet. i will ask the head of foreign policy libby cantrell what comes next. payouts are in pace to be cutting 2024. social security system can be fixed before that happens? what does it mean for future retirees? grab a book. we will tell you about the tiktok trend that is boosting sales for authors. stocks ended the week mixed, powering tech stocks. nvidia's huge earnings report got the attention, apple and broad.com announced a deal for supplied chains. weight loss drugs, the injection therapy.

ben levisohn, carleton glitch and al root. post covid interest rates going up, value stocks, it is all about tech. ben: back to 2,020 one with this market. i was bearish when it comes to the dow and i was right. the dow is not doing anything, lost one% one% this week even though nasdaq, has now outperformed the dow by 22.5%. the most since the nasdaq was created in the 1970s. nvidia had a huge move when sales skyrocketed, other tech stocks went up and not much else did. jack otter: does it bode ill for the future if stocks go high? ben: it is painful. if you look at fund managers

only 33% of them have beaten their benchmarks because they don't own these big tech stocks. it's possible we see a situation where big tech catches down to everything else. we look at the strong dollar, rising rates, and you can see them weighing on it. uc sentiment is really terrible. it used to be called the panic euphoria index. it tympanic territory and they see a situation where the market starts to go up because people so hate it they have no choice but to purchase it. jack otter: only the buyers are left. ben: they have to knock on the door. jack otter: what will you be watching other than the fed and the debt ceiling but i will watch the manufacturing survey tell you how the economy is doing, it is under 50 which is under

contraction but if it continues to rise which it has been doing that could be good news for industrial stocks. jack otter: what about nvidia? one hundred $90 in market value, 25% hike. is the earnings report that good? al: the numbers are mind-boggling. that's the third largest increase for any stock in history. it's knocking on the door of $1 trillion, the one hundred 84 billions, one. 5 intels added in a single day. the sales were better-than-expected. the ai trend is turning business now. analysts thought they would do 7 billion in the second quarter, they said we will do 11 billion. analyst estimates for 24 went from 30 billion in sales to 40 billion in sales. it has to be, we don't keep track of these things, has to be a record for mega stock.

and so stock went crazy. to put in context, they basically said, he predicts $100 billion in sales in 27. they will do 40 this year. people thought they would do 30 at the beginning of the year. we are talking a $70 billion opportunity because of ai. jack otter: broad.com and applicable what the take away? al: apple in 2,000 one committed to $420 billion in investment in the us bringing supply chains back. that is more of this. that's the re-shoring, taking business from asia to secure supply chains. jack otter: it is all about weight loss. carleton: when you look at the

new drugs, primarily treat diabetes but also the effect of obesity. drugs that are coming onto the market, a lot of these drugs on the injectable form, costing patients $1000 a month. uphill form that nobody wants. jack otter: people don't want to spend $1000 a month. what are the odds insurance company's will get on? carleton: insurance companies don't want to be picking up, a spike of 50% for some employers but there are causes to obesity where estimates are annually $1600 a year. it comes to more competition in the space and maybe the cost will go down and some insurers will realize it might be worth it to pay up. jack otter: in hollywood people pay what it costs.

debt ceiling doomsday is hanging over lawmakers as the default deadline moves, as the clock is ticking i will ask libby cantrell what she's watching next.

i can't, you know, thank my parents enough for making sure that this connection is here. one of the things that my mother told me

when she was in the hospital, she didn't tell me, actually, she couldn't speak at the time, but she wrote it down... "go see alicia." oh, my goodness. you know, and there was never a time that you were too busy. there was never a time you said i'll call you back, you know. i needed to be there to carry you through, just like, you know, some of my friends carried me through. ben: lawmakers leaving washington with no debt deal passed through congress yet. janet yellen saying the default deadline could be as soon as june the fifth. the head of public policy, libby cantrell, thanks for coming in. as usual, you read the tea leaves correctly. you said weeks ago it is in mccarthy and biden's interests to get this done.

looks like they are on the cusp of doing so. you called attention to this clever way they can both claim a when on setting spending limits. >> are views nobody has political incentive to compromise before they have 2. we were expecting there would be a deal but probably not a deal until the 11th hour. spending has been the crux of the issue, the central part of this negotiation. it does seem they were able to slip the baby in terms of finding a compromise that was mutually agreeable. not only does it look like defense spending might go up in 2024 but also non-defense discretionary spending may look like it is going down. it will appease republicans but accounting tricks indexing for inflation, looks like it will

be flat. it was both people, both sides of the aisle political coverage to sell it to their base but as speaker mccarthy has said, don't expect everyone to vote for it. they are likely to vote against it. progressives are likely to vote against it as well. they need to cobble together the two they need to pass something in the house. >> you had some colorful language to describe the yelling and shouting from the far right and the far left. >> we describe passing the debt ceiling as passing a kidney stone. no more passages, just a question how painful it will be and we are in the painful phase but despite that, we do expect this to pass but not until the eleventh hour.

the deadline from june 1st, gives congress some breathing room to pass things but from the market perspective there might be volatility this next week because of the pearl clutching and handwringing over the deal. jack otter: further volatility if they issue bonds to cover bills they were not able to pay or can they manage them? >> some important nuance is treasury has been bleeding into the cash buffer is decreasing cash buffer is to allow to continue to stay below the debt ceiling and they start issuing a lot of cash, a lot of bills to resupply the cushion that could be disruptive but you haven't seen a lot of volatility, we've seen a lot of volatility on the front of the treasury curve. this could lead to more of that volatility, sucking liquidity out of the market. this helps the fed in terms of

slowing the economy but might be unanticipated from a broader market perspective. if depositors take money out of banks, they are more attractive, that will increase instability as well. the treasury sophisticated about cash management, we expect them to have a deliberate approach and issue new bills over time so as not to influx the market but they need to replenish their coffers. jack otter: you've been talking about new rules that will allow the government to take a close look at companies deal with china. >> everyone is focusing on the debt ceiling. this is important for folks to understand.

and executor border coming out of the biden administration on capital outflows from the us to china in specific areas, artificial intelligence, semiconductors. it will be disclosure based regime first so investors who are going to be investing in these sectors disclose those investments. but there is a cost ability -- possibility those indexes could be block and the government could veto those investments. the reason this is notable, this is the beginning, not the end in terms of scrutiny and restrictions coming from the us to china, something folks should be aware of. this specific executive order is not all that existential but a trend that could amount to something more significant. jack otter: for the debt ceiling. >> thank goodness. jack otter: if nothing is done the social security fund will

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jack otter: social security making headlines as the day of reckoning comes closer. by 2030 for the combined retirement and instability trust fund will have to cut benefits one year earlier than previously projected. barron look for three ways to attack this problem. let's look at the conservative approach by the american enterprise institute that combines means testing with private accounts that would be invested in markets. >> andrew biggs over there is two pronged.

3% mandated savings bringing into an employer-sponsored account for a 401(k), none of those options available into a government-sponsored plan, like bringing defined contribution to social security. jack otter: it invest in the markets which we don't currently do. al: there's this idea of means testing, the benefit for low earners and cutting back the benefit for high earners. it sounds a lot like prior plans which is the market based private accounts and means testing, that makes it a difficult sell, but feels like it would work if you get people to agree with it. jack otter: people don't like the idea of cutting benefits. >> it's very difficult

politically but -- jack otter: it is a pay-as-you-go system. if you diverted them into the markets, that would be great. where's the cash flow? al: you are trying to solve something with no pay for anyone and that is threading the needle. jack otter: on the other side of the aisle democrats would like to see expanded benefits. give us a sense what they are talking about. carleton: you understand why you would want to see expanded benefits, people are living longer. we don't have as many pensions as we had before and inflation is making it difficult for people to save. it comes down to how do you pay for it? what democrats are proposing might lead to $200 a month. for individuals and families, the problem is it increases the shortfall we've been talking about by 43%. to pay for that we are talking

higher taxes where taxes on income going up by 12% and other taxes being lifted as well. jack otter: both of these ideas are probably doa but a compromise is possible without too much pain, or reasonable pain if everyone is willing to help. ben: basically go ahead and start taking -- texting people making $400 or more on that money. that will close the shortfall by 64%. then increase the payroll tax by 1% from 12. 4% to 13.4% split evenly between employees and employers. that is down by 26% and then you raise the retirement age by one year. 68 from 67 closing 12% shortfall and none of that

should be controversial. if ronald reagan and tip o'neill could do this in 1983 there is no reason politicians today couldn't come to a similar agreement. jack otter: the idea is above that, you hit 400. that would not be indexed for inflation, one hundred 60 is. over the decades everyone would pay their earnings. let's change it slightly to this issue you get nasty emails, the question of when to take social security, there's a lot of disagreement. unless you go to the math which is pretty clear. carleton: the math which should apply to most people, if anyone wants anything, wait as long as you can. if you reach full retirement age you get one hundred% of your benefit, waiting longer can add a few hundred dollars

to your monthly benefit. we -- everyone's situation is different but the math says to wait. jack otter: the longer you live the happy you will be to get it. you guys have a couple interesting investment ideas. carleton says grab a book, tiktok tre progressive makes it easy to save with a quick commercial auto quote online. so you can get back to your monster to-do list. really? get a quote at progressivecommercial.com. ♪

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ordinary etfs. visit foxbusiness.com/"barron's roundtable". jack otter: social media get a bad rap and a lot of that is valid in my opinion but let's look on the positive side. you have been working into social apps that actually helps book readers and booksellers. carleton: this is tiktok.

our colleague angela cuomo had a feature on this and dove into it. what tiktok is doing or what users of tiktok are doing, authors or general content creators reviewing and promoting their favorite books. that turns into sales for booksellers, an uptick in sales in 22. if you go on tiktok, use the hashtag book talk, get recommendations for any kind of book. a lot of creativity, fantasy novels and all that other stuff, 127 billion views. for all the bad talk about screen time which a lot of that is absolutely valid, there is a tiny corner of the internet that might not be terrible. might encourage people to read more. kirstin: that's a lot of book marketing. carleton: cheaper marketing too.

a lot of them are doing it on their own or you have content creators the get $2,000 a post but when you think of the marketing budget up drop in the bucket when looking at potential to reach 126 billion views. jack otter: let's go to actionable ideas. you've got an interesting idea. al: a i made the tech sector so expensive, dividend stocks, almost as cheap as it gets, what they were sifting through, i share selectivity, 100 stocks, 4.5% etf and if you are worried that stuff is cheap like banks and energy, go to worchester kratz, noble, 66 stocks raise their dividends for 26 years, you yields are 4. 5%, ai is great, cash is better.

ben: are looking at hershey, it has fallen 7% since in a record high on may 1st. not much fundamental going on. it's just about people not wanting to own high-quality stocks like this but the stock is reported in april and looks like it is falling. of this level holds it will be interesting. jack otter: to read more read this week's addition of barron.com. that is offer us on this memorial day weekend, we thank the brave military. when women who have served to male announcer: the following is a "leading the way" special presentation. dr. michael youssef: hello, friends. michael youssef here.