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ashley: the outline of new york city this morning, all sorts of air-quality alerts going on in the city and surrounding areas, fires north of montréal, smoke from the fires drifting into the city. pretty yucky out there. that told the story. very smoky and hazy. it is 10:00 eastern time. i am ashley webster in for stuart varney. markets picking up where they left off yesterday. slightly higher. the dow up 30 one points, the s&p up a quarter of one%, the nasdaq 12:45%, the nasdaq up half of 1%, all this as investors wait for cpi, inflation data next week and the fed meeting next week. expect perhaps to pause in its rate hikes. all right being considered, the market treading water. the 10 year treasury yield up

3.5 basis points. 3. 70%. let's look at the price of oil, that was a focus, the saudis that we will production that is cut production by million barrels a day. the price of crude $72.58, not as high as some thought it might go. with concerns over the global economy. bitcoin down $272, $26,795 on bitcoin. let's get to this headline. republican presidential debates raise huge trump question as candidates jockey for nomination. liz peek wrote the op-ed, not sure of the headline. she joined me now. good morning. i read your piece. it's very interesting. the fact of donald trump saying i don't need to debate at this

stage, could do more harm than good but you argue his lead is not insurmountable. we are very early on in this process. you think voters would like if donald trump didn't participate when these debates go on. what are your thoughts on that? how do you attack trump? how do you take him on? liz: that's a good question. all the candidates are doing their best to do that. it hasn't moved the needle. what we see in polling is a strong, let's call it 50% of the republican primary voter group that wants to vote for trump and 50% who want somebody else. right now all those votes are scattered among a growing number of candidates, makes it hard for any of those candidates to emerge. we are looking at an interesting situation, 79% of voters, democrats and the equivalent number of republicans want their candidates to debate, they want trump to debate, they want

biden to debate, biden is not going to do it, nor is that the norm for an incumbent. but for trump it is an interesting question because yes, his lead is not insurmountable. right now is closing. i think ron desantis if you look at paul's from various states is drawing more voters as he has taken to the campaign trail. the lead is narrowing. it is a risky thing for trump. if he debate he could stumble. if he doesn't debate people can take that as a sign of weakness. his view right now is why should i bother? i am ahead 30 points in the polls, what have i got to gain? he will be the draw, most likely, for millions of people who will get a look at the other candidates. it' s a tricky one for him. ashley: it really is but fascinating to follow. i can't wait for this to unfold.

arthur stewart, on a rampage to get rid of remote work. she says you can't possibly get everything done working three days a week in the office and two days remotely. look at the success of france with their stupid off for august, not a very thriving country. should america go down the drain because people don't want to go back to work? she's fired up. is it time to get workers back into the office? liz: depends who you ask. a lot of young people got used to the idea they can work remotely wanted to days a week, they are still productive. employers increasingly want people back. team building, route ari, idea sharing, all that good stuff that happens when you assemble around a conference table or around the water cooler, that's valuable to employers and one of the big misses during the period of the pandemic of

really remote work with young people didn't learn a thing. they usually are looking over their boss's shoulders, sitting in on meeting and absorbing what goes on. that didn't happen. it is a funny thing to be talking about this. i'm working on a piece on the fact that eric adams in new york just concluded an agreement with the municipal workers union to not make them come in every day. they will give them two days a week remotely. what a terrible example to set in a city where the most important thing we have going on is getting people back in their office, back in town to save tens of thousands of businesses that are on the brink of going under. it is amazing. ashley: and a good point, if city workers aren't coming in watch office workers? thanks for joining us. elon musk getting into it with

hakim jeffries on twitter. what was this about? >> reporter: the economy and it happened on twitter. the house minority leader, mister jeffries, tweeted me, meaning democrat saved america from the extreme right wing plot to crash the economy. i believe he was referencing the debt deal. they as an republicans are wasting time in a phony effort to save kitchen appliances. elon musk wrote back what nefarious actions are republicans taking to crash the economy. on the public square which is twitter, after hakim jeffries made an extreme allegation and jeffries doesn't even answer. ashley: i love the fact that he gets involved in these things. . subdued as we've been saying,

the dow essentially flat, let's bring in david stravinsky. i read your notes. before i get to the actual stocks you like, consider this about the fed. it takes 270 days, nine months on average for rate hikes to hit the market. with that in mind, only 3% of the 5. 4% since we've put we put in place. that's pretty sober. >> that's right. we have a lot of negative indicators that are very sobering and all flashing warning signs. even the warren buffett indicator that looks at the overall value of the market relative to gdp, indicating we

increase 43%, schiller p/e ratio 48%. meme reversion in the 40s. inverted year curves. made behalf or so of the fed's implementation has hit our economy right now. the way we are looking at it. stuart: the analysts, goldman sachs seeing early signs of a recession than they expected. do you see it that way? >> reporter: they cite the debt ceiling deal getting done. don't know what we've got about it that improves our situation in a real way but citing gdp is not going to be that horrible. whether we are positive 1% or minus half of 1% i don't know that it feels very different, things are absolutely slowing

down and in addition, we've got recessions in housing based on volumes that are taking place. we've seen the credit crunch. i have some indicators which is manufacturing, one of the most accurate indicators of going into recession is in a recession, it has been there a few months now. consumer spending coming down. reduced spending on experiences. not buying the normal things we regularly do. we've seen an earnings profession, slower growth for the future, average hourly rates growing double what they used to be prior to covid. a lot of negative sentiment taking place. goldman coming out with a more positive outlook on things. they were wrong on 2,008. i vote that they would be right but here's the reality. a lot of points. ashley: another reality check.

thanks as always for sharing your thoughts. lauren, come back in here. looking at some of the moves, look at the firm. lauren: this is like the amazon win. a firm has been added to amazon pay, accepting amazon pay, they could integrate a firm's purchase now and pay later, typically they think they can spend more money because they have more time to pay off. that's why the firm is up 20%. roku is sharply higher, to give 17 new tv channels to customers for the month of june. avera bradley, those big overnight bags, they cut their losses in half. they rated their outlook for the year, great costs are

coming down 59%. ashley: thank you very much. jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon was asked about american companies doing business, hot topic right now. lauren: he things the us got it right. not decoupling. fox caught up with him. >> foreign policy, secretary blinken, secretary yellen, national security adviser jake sullivan, president, one of those things we need to do to have national security. penicillin, semiconductors and unfair trade. they are doing the right thing in the business community, the right way to do it, these things need to be done on a bipartisan basis and with our allies. lauren: bipartisan basis with -- bipartisan basis with their allies. a diplomatic answer.

and then he said china is not the 10 foot giant many people fear and i wish he elaborated on that. we are stronger than china but we don't claim an entire see of their own private lake. china is the 10 foot giant. ashley: certainly behaves like it. the atlantic is calling to get phones out of schools. the magazine claims they get in the way of learning and stunt relationships but not all parents are on board with this proposal. we will get into that story. the pga tour reaches an agreement with live golf shocking the sports world. the saudis apparently not on oil production. peter doocy will have that report coming up. the biden administration released a statement marking the 34th anniversary of the tiananmen square massacre but

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ashley: we have been talking about the pga tour, it comes after saudi arabia cut oil production by 1 million barrels a day. peter doocy, good morning to you. why will the saudis work with the us on golf but not oil production? >> they can still squeeze some cash out of the us, president biden is a golfer, he played at

joint base andrews sunday it is trying to make this out to be a punchline. >> everyone -- >> president biden: plan on being here. ashley: family members of 9/11 victims say pga tour leaders should be ashamed of their hypocrisy, the entire 9/11 community has been betrayed by the pga. it appears their concern for our loved ones was windowdressing in their quest for money, never to want to the game of golf. white house officials taking time to develop an official policy position. >> i'm not going to do that on that particular merger. >> don't have anything to say about that. no comment on that today. >> reporter: look at this video. secretary blinken is in saudi arabia today. the biden administration is

trying to make nice with the royal family, with the saudi's not make the oil production cuts they just did while insisting they are still problematic people. >> the saudis -- >> president biden: anything i say -- >> what about that, mr. president? >> president biden: i don't forget anything that i said. what happened to jamal khashoggi was outrageous. >> reporter: message received, the saudi production cuts could impact president biden's reelection bid of gas prices rise. ashley: thank you very much. antony blinken is expected to travel to china in the coming weeks. that comes as the administration released a statement to mark the 34th anniversary of the tiananmen square massacre but in that statement they dropped

references linking the massacre to the ccp's oppression. congressman darrell isa joins me. good morning. you say this is no ordinary foreign policy stumble, right? >> there is no chance specialists at the state department failed to warn the secretary and his staff that they were landing on the net anniversary of tiananmen square. that was timed with what the prc wanted, not what america should be doing. we continued to announce the repression in that country. cannot forgive or forget that anniversary. symbols matter. they matter particularly as an envoy lands in china because the chinese remember what that day is. ashley: i want to switch subjects.

secretary blinken giving congress for the afghanistan dissent cable, you say it showed president biden allowed afghanistan to collapse. what is this dissent cable and what did you learn? >> the dissent cable is a mutually agreeable by almost 1/3 of the americans working in the embassy including some senior executive service. those individuals in great detail described what would happen if they went forward with this plan, the loss of one hundred thousand people we promised to get out, americans being trapped and the rapid collapse of the military without support. all of that in excruciating detail, described in four pages and then a response of two pages seven days later, said we

hear you and are taking this into consideration. that was clear because they weren't because three weeks later the government collapsed fully and we found ourselves with 15 dead men and women in the military and 100,000 or more people trapped in afghanistan many of whom have lost their lives. ashley: it is sickening. such a horrible flub if you like, i don't want to downplay the outcome of what happened the. what should pay for this? >> it goes to the top. the president made a decision against good advice by dod and state. secretary blinken executed on this in spite of specific warning by the people he should trust most, the senior career foreign service people who are at the embassy. they went forward with a plan that was wrong minded and that is what it really said.

the american people deserved a the dissent cable, they should be able to see and understand the secretary and president and national security council were forewarned and did it anyway. ashley: a terrible failure. thank you so much for taking the time to chat with us. we appreciate it. democrats in arizona claim the new school choice program will bankrupt the state. that's not true at all. it would save arizona money. yesterday, we told you about new york city's vending machines for drug users, they are filled with supplies like crack pipes and are proving to be quite popular. cv cotton will have the full report from brooklyn next. ♪

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headline, school choice save arizona money. democrats claim the new program will bankrupt the state and says the opposite is true. cory deangelis wrote that and he joined me now. how does school choice save money? are the democrats dead wrong? >> of course they are dead wrong. take a step back for a second. since when are democrats concerned about fiscal responsibility? they have never seen a taxpayer dollar they didn't want to spend. this is all a smokescreen from the get go. they don't like that parents are getting a say in kids education but you must be using common core math. each child using the school choice program uses $8000 each year whereas in the government run schools in arizona they spend $14,000 per student. the mistake with their math is they are looking at one side of the equation, it will cost $900 million but the same students were in the public schools they

would have cost $1 billion. it's a huge savings. ashley: is a just the money they are not happy with? don't like the concept? >> they don't like the concept of school choice, teachers unions donate to democrats overwhelmingly and they want to continue to protect the status quo, their monopoly on the minds of other people's children so democrats don't like when parents get opportunities to take their kids education dollars to a private school or home-based education option. parents are happy with this program. in the past year, 58,000 students who sign up for education savings accounts. this is why democrats are shaking in their boots. ashley: i want to change subjects, one that will have school kids screaming foul. the atlantic is calling to get phones out of schools. they say phones are obstructing

the ability to learn, stumps relationships, lessons, do you agree with this? should there be a ban on phones in school or is that not feasible? >> i saw randy weingarten tweeted something, this phone is too disruptive so maybe kids should have phones in school so this is a good take from the atlantic. other rules and discipline area standards in the school system, i hope the public school officials disciplined students if they are paying attention or don't follow the new rule. ashley: i was working out of a restaurant a couple days ago and there were kids at a table. every one of them was buried in their phone. that's not unusual but it continues to strike me that if they are doing that at school surely they are not getting the

full experience and education they should be getting. >> we see learning loss in mental health issues among students as well so there could be a correlation between rising social media use and mental health issues and lower academic performance in the public school system. i hope public school officials will discipline the students if they aren't paying attention and following the new rules regarding cell phone use. ashley: exactly. we shall see. good stuff this morning, thanks for taking time to chat with us especially about school choice in arizona. let's look at the markets if we can. we've been slightly higher at "the opening bell," the dow up very modestly as you can see. nasdaq flat 0.5%. some of the movers today, we begin with chesler.

tesla. lauren: it is up 9 days in a row. looking at the longest winning streak in two years. every single model 3 is eligible for that $7500 tax credit. that means the model 3 started $30,000 and for evs, that's pretty good. they are up today and spending on experiences holding up as we head into summer. management side of the balances, their customers keep on the cards you swipe to play in the arcade. the balances are higher. stocks are 25%. we have a loser, united grocery, stocks down 22%, a two year low. they cut their annual outlook for the second quarter in a row. ashley: that would do it.

democrats come for your light bulbs, gas stoves and cars in the white house talking another household appliance in the name of climate change, we have the details on that. biden's green agenda creating a headache for homebuilders struggling to find transformers. we can explain, jeff flock has the story next. ♪ the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam who make...? ...everyday products... ...designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder - that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius!

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finish up by 8.59 points, we would be out the bear market. that is what the stats and charlie brady tells me. that's good enough for me. the administration is targeting another household item. coming here. what is it this time? >> the gas furnace, the scary thing in your basement. ashley: yes. >> in my imagination. all in my imagination. lauren: it is not your imagination. it is scary according to the department of energy. they are preparing to restrict home gas furnaces, which more

than half the country relies on for heat. if they get their way manufacturers and consumers would need to comply with the new rules and pay for retrofits that are complicated and costly. another policy push by the government the does restrict options for americans and homeowners. ashley: forget about crime, inflation, everything else, the gas furnaces, that is scary. struggling to find transformers, they need them to connect houses to the electric grid. they are kind of important. jeff flock is in pennsylvania. is this thanks to mr. biden's green energy push? >> reporter: unintended consequences perhaps. transformers, we know what they look like. that is a transformer up there, a big trashcan.

they tamped down the high-powered coming in on the lines to go into your house. if you are a new development you have a pad transformer, everything run underground, the transformer is out there. he can't get them. look at the numbers in terms of how long it takes to get a new transformer these days. used to be a few weeks. between 4 and 5 months or 5 years. and used for solar power inverters connecting more charging stations to the grid these days. between 20% to 50%, housing the relevance like the one back here behind me, they can't get them or hook homes up to the grid getting power in their and folks speak for the housing developers say we got to do

something like this. >> it's a punch in the gut. what we need now, to rapidly increase production of these transformers, we need the administration to appropriate funds, transfer manufacturers to hire skilled labor, run additional shifts. >> reporter: you know what is happening? they are making transformers more energy efficient. 13 democrat senators along with their republican colleagues have written to the president, saying don't implement any new rules on transformers, we can't get the old wins that we need much less trying to make it more efficient. by the way, so you see what is looming, the average age of the transformer in the us is 40 years. the average expectation of age, age expectation is 20 years. don't know about you but if i

was to live 20 years, age expectation, i wouldn't be in great shape. ashley: i am with you, thank you so much. before the keystone xl pipeline workers warning about the green energy push, come back in here. what exactly is it? lauren: his name is neil crabtree, essentially saying the us is biting the hand that feeds them. by going after the producers of electricity powering our cars and stoves, it is also dangerous. listen here. >> they use it for political leverage and negotiations for other things. one of the most dangerous things to me we are facing as a country with politicians in the energy sector, trying to promote this green energy where we cannot handle that amount of power.

you think of the lack of energy, you think about 1/3 world country, don't think of the united states but as long as washington keeps using energy in political warfare we will be dealing with that. >> like a third world country. i've been hearing a lot of what he was saying especially with regard to the new proposed rule by the epa to cut carbon pollution at power plants drastically. your cutting off the electricity that you need to fuel green dreams, everyone is saying slow down and think this through before having these sweeping protocols. ashley: shooting ourselves in the foot, thank you very much. let's get back to these markets. we've seen this action in the markets for several days. just waiting i think for next week, the dow itself up 34 points, 0.1% gain.

investors wanting to know what inflation numbers will look like before the fed meets, lots to consider next week. the dow winners today, caterpillar, chevron, dow and home depot up to one%. let's look at the s&p 500 winners as well. marathon oil modestly up today. apache another energy player, microchip check up 4%. looking at the nasdaq, stocks doing well today. some conductor stock up, 3%. tesla, we talked about this earlier up 2.5%, $226. the 10 year treasury yield back, moving with a bit of a boost this morning, up 7. 8 basis points pushing the yield to 3.74%.

as it goes up the big tech names tend to go down. we will keep an eye on that. still ahead. millions of women who lost or left their jobs during the pandemic are returning to the workforce in droves but it has not been an easy road to the office. gerri willis will have that report coming up. advocacy group for illegal migrants takes credit for flipping the michigan state house from red to blue. this as democrats are pushing to get drivers licenses, is this the payoff for a payoff? former michigan gubernatorial candidate will take that on next. ♪

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neil: ashley: about 2 million women left the workforce during the pandemic but now there are more women on payroll than ever before. gerri willis has been following the story and joins us now. you spoke to some women who recently returned to work.

what are they telling you? >> reporter: all about the flexibility, that is what we are hearing, three years after millions of women dropped out of the workforce who lost their jobs due to the pandemic. women are now leaving the us job market recovery. according to the moms we spoke to the left and came back is not that easy. >> it is no secret, your prime earning years at least in the business world are women's prime childbearing years. >> and than the pandemic hits. i found a nanny. she got covid. i found another nanny. she didn't show. all of a sudden all the daycare shut down. >> reporter: labor force participation rate were women aged 25 to 54 has reached an all-time high of 76 million in may. this is after the lowest rate in a decade during the pandemic. how did women make the turnaround? listen.

>> women that i know that have kids in school, the majority of them have a hybrid or flexible working arrangement. >> reporter: families are picking up a hefty tab for childcare that came to 19% of family income. many are finding solutions now that covid is behind them. workers are a valuable commodity. the reason behind the expansion of women in the workforce according to the data, there were 1.8 million jobs, there were 1.8 jobs for every opening in april. that gives women leverage to negotiate more applicable work schedules. back to you, ash. ashley: as always, thank you very much. let's talk about this. a group advocating for illegal migrants is taking credit for flipping the michigan state house, giving democrats a one seat majority. very slim. the former michigan republican

gubernatorial candidate joins us, great to see you. democrats by the way introduced bills that would let him document immigrants get drivers licenses. is this a payoff? >> yes. this is what the organization did. they organized this on purpose. if we can overturn these two seats, a driver's license run document and citizens, they had a group of people who are illegally here in the united states. they ended up with $9 million to overturn these seats, turning them from red to blue. we have millions of dollars going get into an organization that is funding all these families to come together that are in the country illegally and make a huge impact on our elections. now they say these folks will have drivers licenses, they have all these reasons this is a good thing but we know this

leads to more interference in our elections. ashley: and legitimizes people who are here illegally, i want to get to this issue, lawmakers in michigan, legislation that would ban the practice of conversion therapy on minors. democrats called the tactic dangerous to lgbt q plus youth and say it was widely discredited. what do you make of it? >> reporter: you have to get into the verbiage of this bill. some of his legitimate. you can't do electrotherapy on children. some of it is saying of children want to talk about these issues there's a limit on what the therapists can talk about. we can argue much of this bill is an attack on the religious institution. we have a great islamic group in michigan who is very concerned about this, a lot of christians who are concerned about this. we have to make sure it isn't a slippery slope intaking the rights of our religious folks,

christians and islamic folks away from them. this is something we have to be careful of and we know that that is definitely the move the democrats want to make, they want to infringe on our religious liberties and we have to make sure we always protect them. ashley: as someone from michigan, what's the key issue as we look towards 2,024? what will make the difference for those in michigan? >> the economy is huge. we have people leaving the state every day talking about what they will do for population, no businesses -- very few businesses are coming to the state of michigan and that will challenge, the governor recently said she created a committee to try to bring businesses to the state of michigan, that means the governor doesn't have any idea how to bring them herself and that is a long-term situation where businesses may not come. ashley: we will have to leave it there. thank you for joining us this morning, great stuff, appreciate it.

before we go to break, the dow up ever so slightly, we see both the nasdaq and the s&p move slightly lower. the nasdaq down 0.6%. we are treading water at this point. the 10 year yield, up 7 basis points. it is up 9 basis points, 3.75%, getting hit by that. still ahead, marsha blackburn will be here demanding answers about americans privacy on tiktok. ashley hinson talking about secretary blinken's upcoming trip to china. martha mccallum on presidential candidate vivek ramaswami attacking donald trump. he says the former president is running on vengeance. interesting stuff. the 11:00 am hour of "varney and company" is next. ♪

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