epic grief, the profound sadness experienced with finishing a beloved book series or a television show and mourning of of the end of an epic journey shared with beloved characters. i don't think this really exists, although i will say these actually go on too long. they should end some of those series a lot sooner. okay, so real quick, my -- i think i'm going to come up with this emo void which is the inability to come up with human emotions. you guys have some great ones. let me just share one with you, do we have one that the i could share with the office in brian g. said making hay, related the elation one feels getting up early, accomplishing hard work, satisfying work would be a substantially new emotion motion for many today. hey, liz claman is back, he knows all about hard work. liz: i'll throw out this one

antidisestablishmenttarianism. charles: if you can spell it, you get extra points. liz: charles, thank you so much. okay, folks, here we are, the first full day of trade for july, first for the third quarter, first for the second half and stocks are off to kind of a feeble start with the bulls sitting this one out, the dow jones industrial down 115, off the low of the session which had been a loss of 191 points. s&p down 5, the nasdaq losing just about 10 points. as always, the federal reserve's next moves will determine at least in some part the market's performance going forward. in just the last hour, we got some hints, big ones, as to to how the fed's second half playbook is going to look. the federal reserve releasing minutes from its june interest rate-setting meeting, the one where they left rates unchanged. the minutes reveal that some voting members favored a 25 basis point increase at that meeting. they did not get their way. and nearly all members see a future rate hike.

the staff also predicted a mild recession later this year. now, about that future rate hike, right now let's look at the fed funds futures, latest number shows an 89% probability rates will tighten by 25 basis points at the fed's next meeting which begins july 2 a 5th. ends the 26th. all right. investors eagerly looking ahead to crucial gauges of economic health coming out this week. we're going to get the jolts, that's job openings and labor turnover number and adp employment report on thursday. and the big june jobs report on friday. later this hour a fox business exclusive, we're talking to the ceo of the world's biggest asset manager all about it. blackrock's larry fink will be here live on what he predicts will be the fed's next move, whether interest rates which continue to head northward will trigger maybe another bank crisis of sorts. plus, breaking news over the weekend, blackrock has refiled its application for a spot

bitcoin etf. larry fink coming up, i 3:30 p.m. eastern time. but first to the markets as we kick off the second half, it'll take kind of a tam period of bulls to -- stampede of bulls to beat the s&p and nasdaq's first half performance. the s&p has spiked 15, nearly 16 while the nasdaq has punched through the ceiling up nearly 32 percent. you can see the dow playing ca caboose, inching about 3.5% higher. can we expect a repeat in the second half? carlyle group's billionaire cofounder and ca co-chairman david rubenstein, david, thanks for joining us. >> my pleasure. thank you for having us. liz: we just got the fed minutes where they did agree to pause their rate hike trajectory which started, as you know, about 16 months ago. since that meeting we have gotten more data that show prices remain stubbornly high. was pausing the right move? >> i think it was because i think the fed didn't want to

panic the markets, and i think the fed gave itself enough flexibility so that it could have another 50 basis points increase this year without surprising people. so i think the markets are assuming, as your data shows, a 25 basis point increase the in july, and i think that's probably the right step. and the fed has done a pretty good job of telegraphing i. liz: you say you expect them to do another 50 # basis points by the end of the year. >> well, 25 this july and i think they're reserving another 25 at some point in the fall in case they feel they need it. i think right now they're telegraphing they probably will do it, the last statement kind of implied that, for sure. liz: yeah, it really did. it looks like they're all on the same page about continuing to the upside. you've spoken to jay powell. i think the last time we had you on the show, you had just interviewed him a few days earlier. can you get inside his head a little bit? he was insistent, don't say pause.

that's not what we did. okay erik it's not a pause -- okay, it's not a pause, it's not a stop in your tracks for a bit. what does he mean by that? >> well, i can't get inside his head, but i think what jay powell has been trying to do and pretty effectively is telegraph what the fed is likely to do, and after it does it, explain it quite well. the tradition of the fed has been to be more opaque about what they're going to do and not all that clear about what they've done. jay powell is not trained as a ph.d. economist, he doesn't speak in traditional fed speak, and i think the markets are much better off when he can explain what they're going to do and explain what they've done. and i think the people on the hill appreciate that as well. he's spent a lot of time up on the hill, i think members like him because he says what he's going to do and he does it. liz: they're very clear that at least they expect a mild recession at least by closer to the end of the year. pimco can coming -- is coming out with a much more definitive statement, calling for a harder landing. that would be globally.

where do you stand on this? do you think that the u.s. will have a recessionsome we continue to get pretty solid economic numbers, and the jobs market looks so solid. >> well, obviously, if you predict a recession, eventually -- eventually you'll be right. [laughter] liz: true. >> in our history people are always predicting it. at the moment the data that we have does not show a recession anytime in the near future, but you can't predict a year or two in advance. right now we don't see a data -- we don't see data that shows a recession is imminent. as you know, normally when you have a recession, you have high unemployment. we don't have high unemployment. and consumer spending is still reasonably good. so, yes, high interest rates are high, but as the recession, probably not. i would suspect for the year we'll probably grow at about 1%, 1.2, 1.a 5% for the year, but i don't see the recession coming around the corner so quickly. liz: yeah. it doesn't look like it, and yet we have bond markets screaming version. we now have the invert yield

curve, the gap between the 2-year and the 10-year, which it sounds wonky, everybody, but it's been a signal that a recession is coming at 103 basis points. that's pretty unbelievable. >> traditionally when you have the inverted yield curve, you do get a recession at some point, but not always. with we've had inverted yield curves over the last year and we haven't really had a recession, so bond market people are smart, but they're not always right about when the recession's going to occur, if it's going to occur. liz les well, we look at the markets, and they continue to climb the wall street wall of worry. it's unbelievable, isn't it, to see that the nasdaq is up nearly 32% year to date. do you with predict that this -- and i know it's hard to predict the market, but do you suspect that the market can continue to climb, or do you anticipate that there may be some horrific implosion or certainly a bigger correction coming? >> well, i think if there's a large correction, it'll probably be because of some geopolitical

event we cannot anticipate, manager goes wrong many russia-ukraine or china-taiwan or the middle east. assuming none of those things happen, i don't see right now a gigantic correction. i think the market is rebounding from the tech decline we saw a year ago or so, and i think it's more or less reflecting the fact that artificial intelligence and some other things are now going to make these large tech companies much more attractive than they were just six months ago. liz: we don't hi the or world resolves -- resolve sos around us, but, boy, did we have a lot of people tuning in in march when silicon valley bank imploded much of it due to rising interest rates and the fact that bank management did not look at its risk profile and see that they had hand on-- had an oncoming train. so we had three banks go under. do you fore see if, as you say, we continue to see rate hikes -- and the fed today was pretty clear in its minutes that there will be at least one more comine

banks fail whether they be regional or some other style of bank? >> well, the most important thing to remember is that the major banks in this country are really in good shape as recent stress tests show. so the kind of problem we had in 2007, 2008 is not anywhere on the horizon. there's always -- we have thousands of banks in the united states, so occasional hi some bank, a regional bank, perhaps, or a local bank might have problem, but generally the banking market is quite safe and quite secure. liz: quite safe, quite secure. we've got to talk about commercial real estate. if i see another prediction that the world is ending and that san francisco office buildings are 40% empty, which is true, people get very is anxious. your not -- you're not. in fact, i believe you've called commercial real estate debt one of the single best investments you know of today, but how do you play that if you are an investor watching right now? >> i said that in the context of buying it back at big discount. in other words, right now i think you're going to see a

major office complexes around the country people are not coming back to work quite the level they did, not as much space is needed, people are moving out of of some of the big cities, is so i think it's likely the banks are not going to take back the debt anytime soon. but at some point, the banks are going to work out a deal with the developer or owner, basically selling the debt back to the owner perhaps or other third parties at probably bigger discounts than they ever imagined. i suspect the banks when they made these loans thought maybe if things didn't work out, they could lose 15% on the loan. i think now they're going to lose it could be 30% or more. some of these buildings have real problems in getting additional finance, i think the debt the banks will sell will probably be a good investment over many years. liz: hold on here. wells fargo admitting it has $14232 billion -- 142 billion, i'm not saying wells is in trouble, but some of the smaller regional banks could be exposeed in a very dramatic way.

you say there could be up to 30, 40% exposure where the banks have to then cover that? is. >> well, it depends on what they've lent for. most of the real estate in the big cities is probably some challenges because people are not coming back to the offices as much as they once were expected to do and, therefore, eventually employers won't need as much space. but many people have long-term leases, it'll take a while. it's a slow motion thing. nothing is going to happen overnight in most cases. most cases you're going to see people paying their rent, but i do think over a period of time, three to four years from now, over a 3 to 4 year period of time, you're going to see a lot of banks selling this debt at big discounts or doing other things to take down markdowns. it's just inevitable. liz: there's always the other side of the trade, and hopefully people can capitalize on it. one last question, david. anything keeping you up at night? >> well, i always worry about when russia-ukraine is going to be resolved. we'd be in better shape. figuring out how the u.s.-china

relationship could be better, that would be good, if we could make progress there, but generally the thing i worry most about is the dysfunction of the u.s. government. it's very difficult to get things done through congress and, obviously, a lot of smart people are trying to get things done in congress, it does seem that the country is divided and congress reflects that. i by -- wish we had more bipartisanship, but i don't think that's going to the happen anytime soon. liz: you and i will hold our breath and then we'll explode. david, it's good to see you. thank you for joining us. >> thank you very much. liz: florida governor ron desantis' new immigration haw that went into effect july 1st -- law -- reportedly causing an exodus of migrant workers from the state's key industries such as construction and agriculture. what does cuban-american and miami mayor francis suarez make of desantis' move? and, yes, he too is a republican. and a gop presidential hopeful. he joins us live next. plus, he is a big fan of crypto,

speaking of which, we've got blackrock ceo larry fink later in the hour to discuss the firm's bid for a spot bitcoin etf or at least in generalities, because there is big news around that. it's a fox business exclusive. closing bell, 48 minutes away. dow jones industrialses down about 107 points. "the claman countdown" is just getting started on this first officially full trading day in july. so glad you're with us, today tuned. ♪ ♪ with a majority of my patience with sensitivity, i see irritated gums and weak enamel. sensodyne sensitivity gum & enamel relieves sensitivity, helps restore gum health, and rehardens enamel. i'm a big advocate of

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that seeks to criminalize undocumented immigration in the state. the law, signed by and support by florida governor ron desantis, makes it a third-degree felony for people to knowingly use false identification to obtain employment. florida's tourism, construction and agriculture businesses are already reeling from this new law as migrant workers have begun fleeing the state. what does cuban-american miami mayor and 2024 gop presidential candidate francis suarez have to i say about this? fran sid suarez joins me live now on "the claman countdown." welcome, a mayor with. your father, cave ifier suarez, was born in cuba and later became mayor of miami -- xavier. you know immigrants can be great contributors to american society. it is very much a part of why this country is so great. what do you make of this new law, and what effects are you seeing already from it? >> well, as you said, i'm very

proud of my father. he got a full scholarship to university, he got two graduate degrees from harvard, and he's written about ninety back toes -- books in at least five pledges, so he is -- language, so he is the quince essential american success story. there's no doubt that the law is having an adverse impact on maul businesses in our state. not too dissimilar from, you know, the fight that the governor had with disney which is impacting jobs in our state. look, i think we've got to focus op on real solutions to big problems. immigration is a massive problem. i just came back from iowa, i was there yesterday for july 4th. and, you know, carpenters there are telling all they want is to have a rational legal immigration system so that they're not competing against people who are operating under a different set of rules. they absolutely no problem with legal immigration, they have of no problem with having more employees because they say that their job sites need the employees. what they don't want is to be 2 -- w2 employees that are paying into the system and have

their employees they're competing against that are not paying into the system that are 1099 or getting paid in cash. so that's the big issue that they're facing in states like iowa. and so i think we just need someone who can create a coherent solution to this multidecade, multiadministration immigration problem. and i think as a hispanic republican i'm in a unique position to do it. liz: okay. but explain to us how you would do it, because up until now we haven't been able to. ronald reagan, of course, was able to get through the amnesty program, but you with look at what george bush, bush 43, tried to do, he couldn't get it done. too much arguing and too much fighting. give me the steps you would take that you think would be successful. >> yeah. it's a multipronged approach. the first is you've got to secure the border. what's happened under joe biden's border policy is destructive for america. you've got 80-90,000 americans dying of fentanyl on an annual basis, and you've got a human

trafficking crisis that's affecting cities all across america. this is the one thing that dem accurate and republican mayors are are unified on of you've got to the secure the border, do whatever it takes, treat it as the crisis it is, number one. number two, you've got to take some of the resources that you're giving china. we're giving china a trillion dollars in wealth on an annual basis in the form of our trade deficit and in the form of the ip that they steal from us every year. we've got to take that and create more prosperity in our hemisphere. that will reduce the pressure of immigration in countries all across our hemisphere. before we used to have just three countries that were creating the majority of our immigration which was cuba, venezuela, nicaragua. now you have where zale that's going -- bra, colombia, argentina, chief e lay, bolivia and hex to coe as well. mexico as well. so that has to be undone. third, you've got to nexus legal immigration to objective criteria like unemployment and the declining birthrate,

something that we have in common with china except nobody wants to go to china, everybody wantses to come here. it should be merit-based and skill-based based on the kind of jobs we need in this country, and number four, i think as a hispanic republican you're going to be in a unique position to deal with the difficult debates of what do you do with all the undocumenteds that are here. i think the country is not ready for an amnesty or legalization, maybe for them getting some sort of illegal status because they know they cannot -- there's no lo logistical means to get them out of the country. it's not possible. liz: yeah. if they want to work and they're ready to work, then they should be paying into the system, and we should certainly facilitate getting them into that position. you are the third floridian to join the gop race are. obviously, former president trump, you have ron desantis. of ron desantis in the battle with disney. former president trump is under indictment. for federal crimes. for our viewers who don't know what you are about, in a word

with, are you centrist republican? center-right? far right? explain to us where you stand. >> where i stand is in favor of american prosperity. i've built an incredible ecosystem in my city where we're number one in wage growth, we have the lowest unemployment in america, and we're number one in tech job growth. that is a recipe for generational success in our country. i want to take that same recipe, and i want to export it throughout the nation. one of the things that i've learned as i've traveled the country is they want to see someone who's dynamic, they want to see someone who will unify the country. i think unity is a big issue and will be a big issue as this campaign unfolds because people feel angered with the division and the constant fighting -- liz oh, yeah, it's exhausting. >> -- you and your prior guest with were talking about, the inability to to get things done in congress. i was elected by 85% and reelect by 80% in a community that was +30 for democrats the year before i got there and is now

+10 for republicans based on my policies. liz: maybe some of those voters were pro-bitcoin. we've got to run, but you have been very pro-crypto. you've instituted a lot of rules and regulations that are actually helpful to that sector. coming up we've got larry fink of black ron. -- black blackrock. and he and his company have file for a spot bitcoin etf. how important is something like that? because it doesn't exist just yet. >> it's critical. we have to have regulations that support innovation. blackrock, it's a very sophisticated, you know, multitrillion dollar as sets. you know, march ally's going to manage the risk in a way that's appropriate, that's proper, that mansion risker and i think our government needs to be people like that that want to get involved in bitcoin. it's up, i think, 85% percent year, and it's an asset that's been incredibly resilient and in many ways has run counter to this increasing interest rate,

increasing inflation environment, somewhat of a hedge for people. so i think it's important, and i think not only his etf, but i think all the etfs toss sense that they're being done responsibly should be approved and we should support innovation, not stifle it. liz: mayor, you're certainly a very interesting and colorful candidate on so many levels. when it comes to where you stand as a are republican, we'll be watching your race. we appreciate you being here. >> thank you so much. liz: please come back. small but mighty. with the market for tiny homes predicted to grow by 3.5 billion by 2026 the, we are going to take you next -- you can't miss this -- to pennsylvania where jeff flock, that's a live picture, is standing by with a report on why small homes mean big business. we are coming right back with. ♪ ♪

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liz: fox business alert, yes, you see red on the screen, but look at the nasdaq. it has turned positive just by 1 point, pretty nifty trick considering it was down about 52 points. the dow jones industrials down about 103, the s&p down 3. wolfspeed e is the leader of the semiconductor pack at in this hour jumping 13%, surging after the chip company signed a 10-year silicon carbide wafer supply agreement with

renaissance technologies and electronics. renaissance, which is a semiconductor solutions company, made a $2 billion deposit to secure the deal with wolfspeed. shares currently near a 4-month high. trading at about $64.16. shares of ev maker rivian getting a boost after the company delivered in more ways than one. rivian reporting 12,640 ev deliveries in the second quarter, exceeding expectations and putting the company on track to meet its 50,000 production if goal. rivian also announced that more than 300 of its electric amazon delivery vans will be rolled out in germany. shares did surge more than 14% on monday's shortened trading day, and today they are tacking on another 4%. so week to date, are we really having that much of a week to go on? pretty good move, rivian at $20 the.34. we should look at met that shares, they are -- metashares

rising to 3.33% as the social media companies prepares to the launch its twitter or rival called threads. the text-based platform is expected to go live tomorrow, july 6th. comes as the battle between elon musk and mark zuckerberg continues to be -- this is so dumb. am i the only person who thinks this is lame? many are ang cystsly awaiting the cage match, the fight challenge was thrown out by musk last month and seemingly accepted by zuckerberg the very same day. digital world acquisition corp. shares moving higher by about 17% after reaching a is settlement with the sec. the blanket check company that -- blank check company that mans to take truth social public agreed to settle the sec's investigation into the two parties' tie-up. right now that stock is at $14.88. let me make a shift here because

there is not enough housing in this country. tiny homes may be small in stature, but the market for them is quickly increasing in size. so according to a fidelity national financial survey, 86% of potential home buyers say they would contemplate owning a tiny home as their first -- and some of them are so tricked out, you guys, so we said let's end send our jeff flock to pennsylvania. jeff, i need a tour and and then i need some price. >> reporter: all right, i'll do that. i tell ya, first i gotta show you. does this even look like a tiny house? looked at that picture window. can you imagine that sitting on the edge of a cliff or overlooking a waterfall? you're building, you were a tiny house before it was cool. >> way before it was cool. >> reporter: yeah. and you have developed these into pretty sophisticated operations. >> we have with. and you just mentioned the window ask and some to have design features. that's what is attractive to our consumer, to our investors and our customers, is to be able to,

you know, set this in a really cool spot and really appreciate some of it. of. >> reporter: so let's tour. this you saw, this is the living room. you've got a tv in here. we're here in the kitchen, fully tricked-out kitchen, you know, stove the, sink, all the rest, refrigerator. take a look in the bedroom, there's another beautiful window. this is helping to cure the affordability in terms of housing. i mean, it's a problem in this country. >> affordable housing is a problem in this country, and there's quite a few municipalities and townships that are now saying that you can add a tiny home or park model to your existing residence, and somebody can move into it. so it is solving a problem in this country. >> reporter: this is a little bit of a high-end one. you can buy a tiny home at home depot, i think we've got some pictureses of their web site. we're talking, like, 30 grand for that sort of thing. this is a little bit more high dollar but still pretty affordable. >> it is. and the fact that you can see it on some of the web sites, some

of those home depot web sites, some of those other web sites is telling you that it's becoming a thing. i mean, it's -- you know, it was a thing, and it's becoming a real thing now. liz: -- >> reporter: liz, your dad founded the business 47 years ago when you were -- >> 0 #. [laughter] >> reporter: yeah. and they started building sheds, and then they started building garages, and then they started building gazebo, and now they were a tiny house before everybody thought it was a cool thing. thousand they're making the coolest of tiny houses. liz: i know -- >> reporter: zook cabins. liz: i've seen them. buffett has a company that does this, and they are fancy. they're like, what is it, pimp my ride on mtv? pimp my tiny house. [laughter] thank you, jeff -- >> reporter: simplifyfy your life, liz. liz: i agree. too much clutter. thank you very much, jeff.

>> all right, how close is the financial world to the a spot bitcoin etf? blackrock just refiled its etf application after the sec sent it back to the i drawing board what's world's biggest asset manager doing to pass go when it comes to green lighting from regulators? a fox business exclusive, we'll ask ceo and chairman larry fink next. you know, at 30,000 feet because he can't specifically get into details. the sec will be all annoyed. plus does he think the regional bank crisis is truly in the rearview mirror? and not that there's a kendall roy waiting in the wings, but what's his succession plan at blackrock? all that and more with larry fink right after the break. ♪ ♪ ♪ limu emu & doug ♪ what do we always say, son? liberty mutual customizes your car insurance... so you only pay for what you need. that's my boy. now you get out there, and you make us proud, huh? ♪

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to sneeze at. but check out this comparison. since the start of 2023, bitcoin has pulled off ap an absolute moonshot. the crypto of record has soared 83% with a good chunk of it coming since june 15th. that's when blackrock, the world's largest asset is manager, filed an application if for a spot bitcoin trust etf. blackrock's ishares joins a crowd of fund managers from ark to instress eco, vanek, grey scale, all these fund companies that have been desperate to do the same, but they've been turn away by the sec's bouncers, namely chief bouncer, gary gensler. it's already been kicked back, the sec demanded it name a surveillance partner to spot things like fraud and manipulation, and late last week blackrock and nasdaq refiled naming coinbase as the sporter in of spot bit with coyne trust.. -- bitcoin trust.

blackrock has a track record regulators say they find too good to reject. blackrocks' 576 etf applications, 575 have been accepted and just 1 has been rejected. i know you're all asking which one, i'll tell you later, it was in 2014 is. [laughter] as the entire sector waits and watches, joining us now is blackrock's chairman can and ceo larry fink along with charlie gas with perino. great -- gasparino. >> great to have you, larry. >> it's great to be here on a summer day. liz: and we're cool in here. >> we are. liz: i know you cannot get into specifics. but as you look at all of your track records when it comes to ishares and approvals, how do these things work out? how long does it take? and what do you think odds are of any of your etfs that you float getting accepted? >> well, we try to do what's right for the long-terms investor, and i think we have a good track record working with our regulators in trying to make

sure we're thinking about the all the issues around any filing. and so i can't get into the specifics of this filing, but i think the chart speaks quite well. we work really closely with our regulators, and ask we want to hear from the regulators what they, what are their issues and we fix those issues around that. so we hope that like in the past we can be working with our regulators and get the filing approved one day. and i have no idea what that one day will be. but -- and so we'll see how that all plays out. specifically on bitcoin, as i've said in the past, we're a believer in digitization of products. you know, etfs was a big revolution for the mutual fund industry, and it's really taking over the i mutual fund industry. and we do believe that if we can create more tokennization of assets and securities, that's what bitcoin is, it could

revolutionize, again, finance. so we look at this as an opportunity to move one step further in terms of providing investors, you know, fractions of shares, fractions of this. democratizing the cost of investing. you know, over the last 10 years we've lored the cost of ishares' etfs by 30%. what we're trying to do is make it more accessible or easy. the attempt in terms of what we're trying to do with crypto is make it more democratizedded. we'll all have crypto and make it much cheaper for investors. pleasure right now the bid-ask spread e for crypto is very expensive. it does erode a lot of the returns that you speak about because it costs a lot of money right now to transact bitcoin, and it costs a lot of money to get out of that. and so we we hope our regulators looked at these filings as a way to democratize crypto, and we'll

see in the future how that plays out. >> you were never a crypto skeptic like buffett. buffett and charlie munger. but you were kind of skeptical. >> yeah, i was kept. call because early users were -- it was the heavily used for let's say illicit activities. and i think as it became more accessible and also i do believe the role of crypto the is, it is digitizing gold in many ways. instead of investing in gold as a hedge against inflation, a hedge against the onerous problems of any one country or the, or the devaluation of your currency whatever country you're in, let's be clear, bitcoin is an international asset. it's not based on any one currency. and so it can represent as set

that people can play as an alternative. i would call -- the foundation of blackrock is about hope. you invest for retirement because you believe tomorrow is better than today. >> right. but didn't, hasn't the technology sort of diverged from the value of the digital coins? i mean, i don't know a lot of people who use the blockchain, that's the bitcoin technology, to transact. >> right. >> i know a lot of people that hold bitcoin, you don't -- >> i don't own anything other than mutual funds and blackrock shares. [laughter] >> you see what i'm saying. there's been advance. there's a utility, it seems out of nowhere with, about this digital coin. i don't see the utility in the underlying technology. isn't that bad? >> well, no, i actually believe the underlying technology is fantastic because the blockchain will help you accelerate the processes of transactions. the blockchain will help you

identify. i mean, or let's be clear, if you have a pure blockchain and you have every -- you have knowledge of who the buyers and sellers are, we could then, you know, we don't need custodians anymore. >> okay. >> we don't need, you know, the whole process of finance, some of the intermediaries are broken down. and is so this is why -- >> but we're not there. >> we're not close to there. but it's an advancement of technology. i mean, it's no different than the spirit around a.i. and what a.i. can do. liz: larry, as we look at the broader market here -- >> right. liz: -- we have come out of a bank crisis, a mini -- >> mini crisis. a little, or mini crisis. liz: didn't feel mini to the banks that went under, three of them. but the very issues that put those banks under whether it was bank management in relation to higher interest rates have not gone away. >> correct. liz: now we've got the roller coaster coming right at commercial real estate.

>> yes. liz: are there more banks that you foresee failing? we just talked to david liken stein at the top of the show, and he thinks maybe in a couple of years we will see some of these go away. >> we have 4400 banks. we have more banks in the united states than any country in the world. we believe in local banks. we have a strong foundational belief that local banks are good. but tough 4400 maybe is too many. liz, you framed it perfectly, i believe interest rates are going to continue to go higher. i think the federal reserve's going to have to do minimum but as much as four more rate hikes -- >> four more? 25 basis points? >> 25 basis points, another 100 points. i believe inflation is stickier and more structural, so i see a future of higher interest rates. higher interest rates is going to create more stress in commercial real estate. commercial real estate is the largest asset category of

regional banks. and so there may be stresses -- liz: that's a problem. >> but the first three banks did not have stress on on credit, they had stress on their mess match of their assets and liabilities -- mismatch. could we move towards more of a crisis towards credit? absolutely. is that systemic? probably not. it's not -- it doesn't have to be successful -- systemic. >> it's not the big banks. >> it's not the big bank withs, and more importantly, the economy is really strong now and getting stronger. it's not getting weaker. we have the three large stimulus packages that were enacted over the last year, the infrastructure act, the chips act and the iing ra. it's all just starting -- this is going to, and it was a trillion dollars over many years of stimulus. it's just entering -- liz: some say it's been too much. >> with yes. [laughter] but it's entering the economy -- >> were -- where are we in the cycle of spending that? do you know?

halfway, three-quartersesome. >> 5%. liz: that's it? >> we're just starting, charlie. this is just happening. think about how many jobs it takes to rebuild airports and freeways and ports. the job demand is going to be enormous. is so here we are talking about commercial real estate as it may be a problem, but the stimulus that we're going to see in the other parts of the economy are extraordinary. and owning companies that are involved in the the rebuilding of our infrastructure, these are going to be good, long-term holds. liz: well, some of that has to do with what you have been behind for many years, and that's esg -- >> we can say those words, right? >> i don't say them anymore. [laughter] >> we won't go there! [laughter] liz: much of the nation is broiling hot right now. >> yes. liz: we can throw up a weather map, and it is the pretty unbelievable. a lot of records have been broken, particularly in the southwest. texas is melting.

one town broke a 110 is-year-old record. it's been nuts. they hit 116 degrees. last week the state hit a new record for electricity demand. >> yes. liz: what's interesting, much of that demand as conditioners are running at full speed comes from sustainable. so whether that's solar -- >> yes, or wind. liz: -- it's filling that demand. and yet the state of texas doesn't like you guys. >> no, look, texas -- people don't understand, texas is the number one state now in renewables. it is also, obviously, the largest state in the terms of traditional energy, traditional power. and so we look at in that we need power -- this that we need power in both traditionals and renewables. and we're going to be announcing a big transaction with a traditional energy if company that's heavily into gas, and we're helping them move towards

more sequestrations. and so our job is to be working on behalf of the asset owners. i mean, we're the largest asset manager. that means none of the money's ours. we're working with all the asset owners and trying to to help them on long-term solutions. and part of that is working on dhi qar wonnization. hopefully -- decarbonization. liz: let's be clear, charlie, and you've seen this, blackrock has hundreds of funds with fossil fuel -- >> totally. >> 200 billion, is that -- >> no, no, worldwide over $380 billion. liz: correct. 380 billion. and it's something like 500 of your funds have at least one or two -- >> so you're the largest -- stock investor in the world. >> i wouldn't call us that. we have to rely on traditional energy. at the same time, we need to aggressively build dhi qar -- decarbonization technology to offset the demand. that's going to take years and

years and years and years, you know? and so the question is, do we have the time. you're talking about the record heat. the thing that i focus on, and we're not spending enough time on it, is what's going on in homeowners' insurance. in the state of florida, in the state of texas -- state of california, major, major property and casualty companies, big brands, are leaving the states. because they can't elevate the price to meet their returns on homeowners. and we're displacing, you know, really a large segment of america today that are not going to be able to afford homeowner's insurance if they are in an area of risk. to me, that's where climate is investment risk x. that's what i wrote about. liz: so why not say e esg anymore? >> with because it's been weaponized by the far left and the far right, and it's, we lose the conversation. >> maybe go to gse. [laughter] i can't help but laugh about this because it sounds so -- the

attacks on you are kind of absurd. because i see texas coming after you on esg, i see republicans, i see that guy from new york, lander, greg lander, the comptroller -- >> i'm not doing enough. >> we want to you to get autoout after owl of it. i can't do that. >> look, our job ised to do what our clients are asking us to do. and is we do a very good job. and despite all the narrative, last year we were awarded over $400 billion in net news assets. >> you've got . liz: no one is holding a gun to their head. >> our clients are, more today than ever in the history. despite all the narrative because we're a fiduciary. we do what our clients ask them. we have good performance. we've been right on market calls. >> that's true. people forget your background as a bond trader. >> yes. >> as a risk manager. you created blackrock from

nothing. it was dedicated to risk management because of your experience in the mortgage-backed market in the day. >> yeah. >> you've been really good at that fora really long time. >> thank you. >> it gets sort of swept away. i know too much about you. i have ooh known you for years. you look the same but you are getting older. >> i am getting older. looking at you, by the way. >> trust me, i know that. are you going to step down anytime soon? >> there is no plans. i mean, i, i love my job. but at the same time we are really building a management team. >> right. >> it is not about one person. everyone thinks about okay who is that named person or named two people. we're spending so much time making sure we have a team and i'm very proud of the point right now that i actually believe when the time is right for me to stand down, that i actually believe we elevate one or two people and i believe the majority of those leaders who

are thinking they have that opportunity will be at the firm. >> so they're at the firm? it, some people say maybe you will bring in greg fleming good friend of yours? >> absolutely not. >> rockefeller fund. >> what i'm trying to make sure when there is that time it is not, we anoint one or two people and three people leave. >> uh-huh. >> i am trying to build a team whoever is named one and two, that the remainder team wants to be part of that new team. and that is how to build an organization. >> let me ask you about two competitors. start with morgan stanley. there is a race to replace james gorman at the top, andy sapper steen who runs brokerage, ted pick, who runs risk. who do you think. >> i wouldn't know. i think james has done a great job of having three people who are next in line and the key for is the same idea. hopefully whoever is named the other two stay on. that's what you want. >> right you.

>> don't want to have what happened at ge historically when one person is anointed, the whole team disperse. >> jack told them to leave, didn't he? jack welch. >> that was a mistake. we're trying to build a team and elevating one or two people doesn't mean other people are losers. we're trying to keep continuity, making sure that we have a management team that is ready to run in and become bretter than what i have done. liz: you wouldn't be that guy like eiger, i will come back, i will come back and save the day? >> that would be a disaster. liz: why? >> because you know what? i want the next team to be better than me. liz: see very few, ceos say that but then they get annoyed when their successors -- >> i'm a founder. >> that's right. you created this thing. >> i want us to do so much better. >> look what happened at goldman. if you don't want to answer it i won't bust your chops. >> i'm not going to answer it. >> give-and-take between lloyd

blankfein the former is ceo, current guy, solomon. lloyd going around saying he doesn't like david -- >> i will not be doing that. whatever that may be. >> wait a second. >> i hope i will be, you know enjoying my grandchildren. >> you will be. >> but, but i need to ask you, is that guy getting a bad rap, not you? i know you are, david solomon? >> i think david has done a good job over time. it's obvious that there is a, there is a schism within the organization. i think david has led the firm properly. i he has elevated the firm. the firm is a better firm today than it was five years ago so i don't know the inner dealings. i don't spend much time focusing on the other firms. i spend all the time making sure we do the job right for our clients. liz: 30 seconds left, larry. what do you think the most important thing this country

things right now? >> solidarity. we need to bring back hope. so many americans are losing hope. and the polarization of opinion is fighting, it creates more fear. there is more fear in america today than in my lifetime. fear about the future. you're seeing that, declining birth rates in america. you're seeing that, people are frightened of, you know, is tomorrow going to be better than today? i know when i was a child i lived, i knew that the future was going to be better than it is today and i built blackrock on that belief. we need that. we need, we need hope. >> our stage guys are agreeing with you. liz: thank you, larry. great to have you. [closing bell rings] liz: larry fink of blackrock. the dow and the s&p 500 snap a three-day winning streak. by the way, "building homes for heroes," my charity, doing the honors today. ♪. larry: good evening,