call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-763-2763. that's 1-800-763-2763. stuart: the exterior of the white house is painted a shade of white called what? you are first, ash. ashley: i will go with the dove, number one. we won mike? mike:i will go with marble white. stuart: i'm going with the widths were white. the answer is whisper white. >> let me get my challenge flak. stuart: 70 gallons of paint to cover the exterior of the white house. time is out for me, coast-to-coast starts now.

neil: things are moving fast. over-the-top dow, its highest level of the year. dow jones industrials doing it again convincingly so. the nasdaq and s&p doing fine but not as blistering as the dow. it's late but unusual and might add something to do with another indicator that it's sneaking out of nowhere. unless you have been listening to this show. we are talking the dow transportation average. if you purchase something as these 20 airlines and railroads and delivery companies go, eventually traditional down 30, transport stocks are moving, things are literally moving. warplanes are packed, trains are packed, that generally signals a lot of stuff and a lot of demand and that is broadening out. that is moving development so let's get moving now.

welcome, everybody, thanks to ashley webster for filling in for me, always appreciate that. you are not imagining what you are seeing with those delivery trucks. maybe your packages, things have to move. that is generally seen as a precursor to renewed economic activity, continued economic activity to start development but how long does it last, put more stock in it. mark tepper, certainly the best dressed on wall street, kind enough to join us. we were kidding about it during the break with so many indicators of stocks, this has a lot of currency because it's very accurate as a barometer. >> it's been accurate for hundred years. the fact that it confirmed we

are unable market is a bit late, the market is up 19%, i love the commonsense component of it. if more stock is getting shipped that good for the economy and the been burning key had an indicator back in the day and his indicator was the number of boxes being sold. you are selling something you have to put it in a box. i could argue. neil: to carry it out by your hands if you don't have a box. >> i could argue in the modern day economy, 78% services based, not as much goods based, the better modern-day dow theory today is to look at semiconductors and software, software is the product. industrials goes right to the semiconductor computer chip which is the transport. if you were to use the new modern-day dow theory, it would

have given us a bullish signal in january. neil: it is a little late to the party but having said that. >> we are still unable market. the broader market. neil: they are limited. >> presents a problem when you look at a lot of these etfs and mutual funds, the nasdaq in particular, they have a rule, all the stocks that make up the nasdaq 100 and they single out the ones with 4. 5% reading and above. add those together they exceed 48 which is a lot of numbers but it becomes too top-heavy and they have to rebalance. neil: limits buying them in the future. >> the only way stocks go up is if you have more buyers and when you walk in to a situation

where there are more sellers than buyers, institutions are going to be reducing concentration in apple and microsofts of the world. neil: how do you tell someone who has been on this apple parade that you should diversify? >> that is the rule the nasdaq has. there is no choice. they have to do it. this is a special rebalance. neil: they are loaded to the hilt already. >> 10 to 15 years. they don't do it often. we have seen that over the last decade it has been a decade dominated by tech, by apple, microsoft. the thing that stinks for individual investors, what's going to happen in the nasdaq 100 index, or the q? that a lot of investors use,

you're going to be sacrificing performance going forward because you are getting out of the best performers and putting more money -- neil: i still believe in them, i still love the ai connection to microsoft and amazon and apple to say nothing of the nvidias. >> that the situation where you look at the country -- a company where for all its issues, it brought to the forefront the opportunity for the retail investor to purchase fractional shares. even if the shares at $3000 a share retail investors can buy into that which made stock purchases rather than mutual funds and etfs easier to do. if you've been in the queue? etfs and you're upset that your reducing apple and microsoft exposure, you add some extra

apple and microsoft. neil: i see the widening out, a group of people, what it looked like, the world is coming closer to where you are. does the contrarian you worry about that? look at the fear index, very little fear, very little evidence that this will reverse itself. >> if you look at the market performance year to date and the number of mentions of artificial intelligence, whether it is in company transcript, you look at a chart, that is essentially 3 x over the last year. you can overlay on top of that a chart of the s&p value which people purchase that when they are bullish.

you can make the argument most of the returns have to do with the hype surrounding artificial intelligence. it is time to prove it, then you look at the earnings, the numbers. at some point just mentioning artificial intelligence won't be enough. it will be time for investors to see it. neil: get nervous, we now have ai. >> how do we do that? neil: thank you, good job. mark tepper following that. legal developments we are following, possibility of a third-party in the presidential race, they are not saying it in so many words. joe manchin is all over it, right now it is getting a lot of attention. >> senator joe manchin may be mulling a white house run after the democrat from west virginia

headline the town hall in the first in the nation primary state of new hampshire. the question looms, could he head a third-party ticket? >> we are getting ahead of it. i'm in races to win. if i race to win, so -- [applause] >> i made a decision. >> reporter: he was dodging a question whether he would choose his fellow townhall participant, former republican governor of utah john huntsman on a 2024 unity ticket back by no labels, the political group that hosted the event which is also openly laying groundwork to support a potential bipartisan featuring yet to be named candidates. >> make you believe that, you are not that. the politics in washington, politics, still the same old

same old. in 2024, the same set of nominees we did 2020. is that insanity? the definition of insanity or what? >> national suffolk university paul, 23% of registered voters said they would support an unnamed third name candidate under -- over donald trump and president biden. more than 2019. >> to choose one side or the other. >> we would like another choice. we would like another good choice. not a republican, not a democrat. another good choice. >> reporter: no labels for this potential third-party bid. the group has yet to admit they have yet to name the people who could be on the ticket and continuing to monitor and analyze all the polling data. neil: that will be crucial. all of this with this dramatic

backdrop. we just learned a little over an hour ago that donald trump saying on his truth social site that he is the focus of a criminal probe of january 6th commission looking into that, more to the point some of the prosecutors looking into that very case. the independent women's forum policy president, scott, the former dc democratic party chairman, hadley, this is a latebreaking development, the former president says he's a target of -- don't know how far it gets or whether it is another series of indictments he faces. what do you think? >> exactly events and issues like this that are dividing the gop electorate when it comes to donald trump. on many policy issues and his nominations to the supreme court, you saw a lot of unity among conservatives and support for those policies but when it comes to the president himself,

the personality issues, the baggage he brings to a second term, a single term if reelected, that is an infection point for a lot of gop voters and a reason this wide open lane for a third-party candidate could come in and fulfill the dreams of many americans who are frustrated with both sides. neil: i wonder how democrats react to this. we can talk about infighting in the party in the fact that robert f kennedy junior, williamson, they captured 1/4 of the democratic sentiment, but they still want to see donald trump is the nominee because he is the guy they think they can beat. what if he's not the guy who takes on the republican primary? >> the number 2 would be desantis. we would be happy to have desantis given he is antiabortion, anti-gay, anti-diversity. not enough votes for the gop to win with trump or desantis.

neil: that he's anti-diversity -- on some of these the truth -- >> polling i looked at the most recent polling, 70% of independents support donald trump. neil: you think desantis is the backup guy, available to be picked off because he's just as bad in your eyes as donald trump. >> there something else going on. the political pundits continue to believe that donald trump is going to remain in this race. he's facing 71 felony counts, he is going to be indicted again with the special counsel because when you get a target letter you are going to be indicted. the government believes you've done something wrong and that will add to the number of indictments he's facing and then atlanta coming, it would be impossible for him to stay in this race because every night he goes to bed thinking about his liberty, not necessarily being the president. if he becomes president which is a long shot in my opinion he

still can't avoid these charges. if he gets convicted and doesn't bleed out, he's going to be sentenced to jail because this connell justice system could care less about politics or presidential elections. neil: unless everything is pushed off. if that is the case, there's nothing in the constitution that prevents anyone facing these obstacles to still -- a lot of these polls against the president, donald trump does win. i'm thinking voters don't seem perplexed by it. >> it is interesting. aside from whether you agree with the candidate on his policy positions, many americans vote on each side, partisan primary voters are looking at donald trump, president biden, looking at other contenders like ron desantis, asking can this person win and that is weighing a lot in the calculus of voters

where they throw their support, you might find there are many american voters saying this person isn't my first choice. of aconite someone is the next president i might pick this person but throw my support in the primary find this other candidate because they are more electable. that a big part of the equation this early on. of the 20 seems like democrats, some might have problems with the president but are not about to switch horses now. >> probably not. polling shows 70%, 50% to 60% of those would consider a third-party candidate. if you ask about what they vote for third-party candidate they are not used to voting for third-party candidates, they are used to voting democrat or republican, no third-party candidate has been successfully at the presidential level, a lot of evidence against them and it will be a democrat or republican that will be in the white house after 2024. neil: third-party candidate can influence who that is. >> hurts biden more than trump.

neil: cover the 1912 campaign. terrific job. appreciate it very much. we don't know what is happening on the third-party front. when it comes to things that don't go the white house's way, if at first you don't succeed tell the supreme court -- what that is all about after this. ♪ (vo) while you may not be running an architectural firm, tending hives of honeybees, and mentoring a teenager — your life is just as unique.

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>> welcome back to coast-to-coast. the budget model recalculated this change the administration made about counting days to debt forgiveness. because of the change it would add $475 billion to the federal deficit, not the $39 billion they originally said. the white house just finishing the first public hearing by the department of education meant to further work around the supreme court decision blocking student loan forgiveness.

the result of the hearing will change the rule of the higher education act of 1965 but hundreds of billions and more in student loans. >> i want you to know president biden and i are not going to stop. we are committed to using every tool we have to provide borrowers. neil: one of the lawyers on the winning side of the supreme court decision with the same complaint only congress can appropriate money. >> the department must start by legislating new programs in the executive branch which is not proper branch, the clause of article 1 section 1, all legislative powers herein granted invested in the congress of the united states. >> reporter: the white house falling back on talking points when defending the cost. >> when the president will have

a plan that reduces spending. >> a couple things. as it relates, you are talking student loan. >> the new rules. >> the department of education estimated this particular piece to cost $156 billion over the next decade and the reason we do this, the reason we believe this is being done in a responsible way. >> reporter: the cbo estimates it is increasing the cost of the deficit, the cost of the debt and we are looking for the president to take a picture of this. neil: want to go to the budget model, i don't want to get back and forth that the reality of whether the supreme court can do this. the administration seems to think this is different enough that it will pass.

>> there's two components for the biden administration in terms of education and debt relief, the first was outright forgiveness of current debt the supreme court struck down. the second is modifications of loan repayments, knowing it is income devon -- income driven. they exist under current law but president biden's plan is to make the terms of those repayments more generous relatively under current law. neil: it is 25 years you can make payments but easily cover it up period of time. we haven't been making payments and you are not going to be penalized. >> right. under the new plan that would take effect july of next year most payments would be substantially reduced in terms of the periods people would

repay as well as the income protected from those payments and also the fraction of that income that's not protected comes down so the announcement that was more recent, much more of a technical focus of an adjustment to current ipr plans, it is a small component of the new idr that will go online next year. neil: the initial price of 39 billion turns out to be woefully short. that might have been the administration's intention, not trying to label it. if they can get this through, it stands to reason they will start expanding this. is that a fair conclusion? is that built into the higher price tag, half $1 trillion as you can get. >> it already is the plan they

put into motion known as the save plan that will go online july 2024. the announcement on friday of $39 billion, a technical reclassification, and the deferment of loans that exist in the ipr. the new plan that goes online is the $475 billion that we estimate. neil: when it rejected the president's earlier plan, this is congress's decision, not the chief executives, congress controls the purse, not the president. does that become he moved point here? >> there are two separate pieces of legislation. forgiveness was on one piece, the modification to income driven repayment is on a different piece of legislation.

i don't try to play constitutional lawyer but what is interesting, 56 billion number, eclipsed during the white house briefing, is still assuming debt forgiveness and the first component, after the supreme court, the forgiveness of existing debt, the department of education continues to assume that will happen which reduces the estimate of the second component of income driven repayments. neil: makes me wonder if this goes back to the same supreme court but thank you for taking the time. in the meantime the president of the united states meeting with the president of israel,

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chase. make more of what's yours. neil: the north koreans have one of our soldiers who walked into north korean territory, was advised not to do so on the american side. he did, and being held right now. there's a lot of back story to this but i won't bore you with the details. he swore not to do it and trying to avoid an international incident over it. i want to bring you up-to-date on the president of the united states meeting with the president of israel, rtf to

eventually meeting with benjamin netanyahu in the next couple weeks. a great author, highly regarded mayor, good to see you again. >> good to be with you again. neil: let me ask about this meeting, interpreting this as setting up and meeting with prime minister benjamin netanyahu but the israelis have had a tense relationship. what do you think of this? >> biden has an agenda, a very clear left-wing agenda, but -- benjamin netanyahu's kevin was elected with a clear majority in israel, doesn't fit that agenda. that's a problem. you have former prime ministers very corrupt individuals who

have been agitating and trying, even calling biden and telling him not to cooperate with benjamin netanyahu. it is a problem. neil: the problem if you read the press and in israel itself, frustration with how benjamin netanyahu is handling the palestinian situation, there is frustration back here. i don't know if this can be repaired, this relationship. what do you think? >> with biden i'm not so sure myself. when you talk about the judicial system it is interesting because it's used as a pretext for the massive left-wing demonstrations in israel. biden has spoken about it. if you look at the american judicial system the president appoints a supreme court justice and congress confirms

the supreme court justice. that is how the system works. over time the people's will is carried out. ins bizarre, self-perpetuating body so that is what netanyahu and his government set out to is needed very badly, but with biden, pushing away of netanyahu is about his left-wing agenda as opposed to the judicial reform. that is the pretext. neil: how you feel about overtures we've been making to

patch things up with saudi arabia, with the pga in the united states, to iran to jumpstart these peace talks donald trump disbanded. it has to be unsettling. >> it certainly is. i love it day today but yeah. it is unsettling. holding this potential nuclear bomb over our heads and there comes a time a military response is needed as opposed to a political response. diplomacy is not always the answer when dealing with targets and when talking about the regime, talking about tyrants big time. neil: we are not considering that. is that a concern? we are not considering that now. is israel?

>> in israel, everything is on the table. everything is being considered. biden is trying to discourage it but there are talks behind the scenes and the military option is on the table. neil: very good catching up with you. mayor david ruben on all of that. updating you on this, we've given these guys the work of sharing the streaming services and the rest and it is not enough. actors and writers saying that's not the case. after this. ♪ good luck.

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neil: it is hot outside. for most of the country, one hundred million americans in the path of weather that is over 95 ° in phoenix, 115, 20 ° in vegas, similar in that neck of the woods. that is very hot. in the south, the southwest, millions without power. it is wreaking havoc, the latest smoke wave from canada, the winds of turned. a lot of that is hitting the united states. we are seeing a little bit in new york. we had a deluge of you minutes ago. that's doing little to ease that smoke coming from canada. this could last quite a wild, well into the fall. not the heat but the smoke. it's messing with our flights. those trying to get out of town or come back into town you probably know what i'm speaking

of. madison alworth at newark liberty airport, how is it down there? >> reporter: this weather complicated a distress travel system. when you look at travel this summer it looks as bad as last summer if not worse, weather making that a problem. airlines and airports hiring more staff, when you look at the rate of delays moving in the wrong direction. 23% of all flights are delayed coming into and out of us airports, and the heat we are looking at, that intense summer heat is snarling some flights. i want to bring you an exclusive image from one of our fox dc producers. that producer was on a journey from vegas getting to dc, turned into a nightmare. on the tarmac for four hours on

a plane waiting in las vegas. they finally returned to the gate when there were multiple heatstroke emergencies on the plane. a number of people were passing out, people were vomiting and one person urinated on themselves, five were wheeled off the plane. at that point delta crew offered flyers to option to get off the plane and if you did you would be getting off the flight and giving up your seat mean you have to wait days to get your final destination. it's not just heat in the southeast causing delays and cancellations. at newark, we are seeing those problems as well. we met one traveler who has been in the airport since 3:00 pm yesterday. as flyers are frustrated, airlines are making adjustments to try to keep things moving smoothly, united agreeing to major pay raises for pirates keeping them happy and working, they are the latest to do so with their new agreement when it goes into effect, pilots

will get a raise from 13% to 18% roughly. with the opportunity to make 40% over the next four years. united joins delta in having an agreement, southwest airlines no agreement yet for them, those three airlines hoping to hire 8,000 pilots this year. many questioning if that's enough. neil: what a nightmare. i have congresswoman ro khanna. i need to get your thoughts on what madison reported, people stuck for four hours, couldn't go anywhere. they are told you move away from your seat you lose your seat. i thought we were fixing this so those things wouldn't happen. >> i heard this anecdotally. people in my district who were on the tarmac for 3 or 4 hours and told that they couldn't get off, there need to be more

fines, more accountability. the air system is not where it needs to be. diane: know this isn't your area but why can't they just run the air conditioning? it's 120 °. turn it on. >> they should have. they should be serving water. they have to serve water every hour and i was talking to constituents who said they weren't getting water, they had a young daughter on the plane. it's a mess but is about what are transportation needs to have better standards, fines and accountability. neil: i want to get your thoughts because within your district and your neck of the woods, talented writers and actors on strike which could drag on a while. going to the movies this weekend, that might be a weather place to go but after

that it is anyone's guess. we could see delays, productions are already do you laid. is this closer to getting resolved or have you seen that? >> my sympathies are with the writers and the actors on strike. here's why. we think of the famous actors, the famous sports athletes, their big-money, the reality is just like in sports, most actors, most writers don't make more than $26,000 a year, they don't have a job for the full year, 87% of actors and writers aren't making that. here's the dispute, the streaming service, you don't get paid as an actor or writer for the reruns. what they want is tell us the viewership. we should get paid based on more people watching the show. that seems perfectly reasonable. the studios aren't willing to release the viewer numbers.

neil: a lot of studios say we are not doing gangbusters, look at disney, it sparks running it two thirds normal capacity. had a couple bombs at the box office. they don't have the liberty so they say to be as generous as you would think. >> i love and respect bob iger, he's done a good job turning disney around and doing an effective job but they can pay writers a fair wage based on a new model, use to get paid for all the reruns. if you wrote for friends you do well. now if you get ten less, you do a successful show, you don't get paid well because most revenue model isn't subscription and all the writers and actors are saying pay as well, show as well and ai is not going to write your script and make you sound as intelligent as you, it's not going to produce shakespeare. it will dumb down our entertainment.

of what we end of having is ai written scripts, we are going to get accustomed to less thoughtful entertainment and the writers are saying let's have some check on that. it is in my district. silicon valley. it will have a lot of impacts, and ultimately it is a human being with a final say. neil: great seeing you, thank you. i want to go to brian brandenberg. brian: the bailouts return, those who paid back their loans are furious over the white house's debt handout and is it even legal? is that and more at the top of the hour, more coast to coast after this. ♪ ♪

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they grow up so fast... i'm a fan. from xfinity. neil: if it is a showdown to a country that seems the avoiding out, henry kissinger the latest, the american diplomat,

secretary of state, republican administration over 100 years, meeting with the defense minister in china. only a couple days after our climate czar john kerry was doing the same, secretary of state antony blinken and so many other prominent american names of gone to china to try to calm relations but i don't see it going the other way. chinese diplomats coming to the united states to suit things over. that could be just me. china expert jonathan ward of the atlas organization, author of the decisive decade of china's vision, it does seem one way, not that we should be counting all the trips we are making and china isn't making, but why are we making all the trips and they are not? >> this is the beginning of what is meant to be a thaw in us/china relations, the us side

is trying to reestablish what we would see as normal engagement, with a country we understand to be an adversary. we want to have those channels, that's part of the biden administration's goal of stabilizing the us china relationship. the problem is beijing is not seeking to prevent the same conflict we are but containment of china by the us and our allies, the avenue that is available to us to win this long-term contest. it sets us on a track to win this contest and use the precious little time we have to set ourselves on a path to victory in economic and military contests that will go on quite a long time. neil: i wonder how it looks. i always think china needs us

more than we need them. we need each other of course. we are the ones that seem to do the cajoling get. let's get on the phone and track this out. the earlier thing, talking to the president, accepting his calls. what is going on here? >> it's not the name thrust of their strategy. the strategy is to become the dominant economic superpower to create a military that can defeat us in the asia-pacific country. neil: why cater to that? >> don't have a strategy for victory. china's vision of victories to show us what has not changed it. anything that has been -- we need to implement a grand strategy of our own. it is ironic in a sense, the architect of us china relations the did that on the back of the

sino-soviet split and 50 years later, they came back together is a true access, a one hundred-year-old person looking at his legacy. to go forward with engagement, engagement brought us china as a technological and industrial superpower with access to our markets and as you said one of the key points, they need us more than we need them. the economic strategy movements seen without us and military strategy will not succeed without economic strategy that is dependent on access to us. we start to shut that off with our allies and use the time we've got in 2020 to do real economic containment and we can win this. neil: airfare in the meantime. jonathan ward on that. we will have more after this. ♪

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neil: the market is role of the dice, your odds of winning it are one or 2 in 190 million. everyone in my staff has told me, if they were to win, they would show up at work the next day to clean out their desks. we wish you luck. you have to wait a few days but even before that let's go to brian who will do the same thing, show up at work. brian: i would not