week ups and teamsters heading back to the negotiation table according to the tweet the shipping franchise is reporting a better deal in avoiding a strike on august 1 which have applications for the economy we will be following that story here next weekend, join us next friday 7:00 p.m. eastern and i'll be joined by sean o'brien right here on wall street i'll see you on fox news channel the sunday 10:00 a.m. eastern "sunday morning futures" is live exclusive interviews with former president donald trump, house judiciary jim jordan in 2024 presidential candidate robert f kennedy right here on "sunday morning futures" on fox news at 10:00 a.m. on sunday that will do it on fox busines barons. sponsored by global x e. t. f s.

welcome to barron's roundtable, where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. i'm jack otter coming up. wall street is increasingly optimistic that we may avoid recession. economist david rosenberg sees it differently. i'll ask him why he thinks a slowdown is inevitable , then guaranteed payouts. our panel will explain which kinds of annuities are best to providing income for your retirement, and later america's factories are making a comeback. we'll take a look at what industries are growing and the investment opportunities there. but we begin as always, with three things investors ought to be thinking about right now. a big win for the dow this week, but big tech slumped, hurting the nasdaq, plus a slew of key earnings move the market. then 80 t and verizon hit hard after wall street journal report that toxic lead cables are contaminating parts of the us why you might want to buy those stocks and finally used car seller car vonna is one of the

most volatile stocks in the market. should you play the meme rally on the barron's roundtable ? my colleagues been levinson in english and jackhowes. so ben the great rotation from tech stocks never quite materialized , but this week was a big win for the old economy. it really was, you know, they say that every dog has this day, while the dow has had 10 days in a row of gains, which is its longest winning streak since 2017 and it really is because people felt like you know what maybe we've had enough tech. we're going to buy some other stuff, and they bought things like banks. goldman sachs is in the dow, and that really helped a lot. on the other hand, you had earnings from tesla and netflix. they were ok, but not enough to push those stocks up higher after they gained so much and that really ended up rolling down the nasdaq, which finished the week down, 0.6% after those big rallies, you gotta have really banged up earnings to justify it. so shortly we have david rosenberg on. he recently observed that more than 140 stocks have hit 52 week highs since may. that feels like a nice broadening that we've been

waiting for, right. that's exactly what's happening. we're seeing stocks of people hated again. the banks, um up to you, carlton going up and we had zions bank court keep cork america. they all went up more than 10% this week on earnings, but the downside of that is that when you have these big stocks like these tech giants that have been lifting the market up when they're not going up that can actually pull the markets down a bit, and that's why you saw the nasdaq down in the dow do quite do so well. multiple minutes into the show, and we have not said the words the fed yet so of course we have to their meeting next week. what are you looking for? well everybody knows that they're going to hike rates one more time in the betting is that that's going to be it, but i think that what you have to be careful about is that the fed might come into this and look at the stock market and say, you know what? this is feeling little frothy test and try to tamp down that kind of risk taking that's going on and, you know, sound a little more hawkish. and if that happens, you could see a few more losses in the market like he did this week. already carlton, the wall

street journal, shook the market this week with this report about this sprawling network of lead in cased cables. all around the us, it's toxic. it's sort of been known about. but this story was pretty hard hitting. what do we know this is definitely going to affect companies like a t and t and for us, and you actually saw a t and t recently hit a 30 year low if you can imagine grandma exactly now to note over the last few days, it's been a bumpier stock as we try to figure out what this is going to mean for those companies. the question is, do they use telecoms have to remove these cables? if so, at what cost estimates are all over the place here, but at the highest level, you're looking at a costing maybe up to about $60 billion to actually remove these cables. now to be fair to the companies have that they're looking at. they're taking it seriously, not quite clear if they plan to remove it because some of them are saying madam may actually be more dangerous to remove this then to just leave it where it is. let's bring it back to investing. these yields around 8% are those safe. they definitely look enticing and our

l route at the fantastic number cruncher that he is. did take a look at it. so if you're looking at that $60 billion figure that i mentioned on a t and t that would mean taking on debt of about 35 billion, but they have enough cat free cash flow to cover the dividend at that point still need to highlight the fact that highly uncertain area. a lot of these litigation around lead issues they can go on for years. so it is a moving target. but for right now, the data in math that we have stands it up already, jack. i would love to just put a token into a slot and have a car come down out of the vending machine, and that's actually possible. the carbonneau vending machines. they're not cheap. the company has never had a profitable year. that might be part of the reason why i want to talk about the volatility of stock. they've been 57 trading days since may. on 21 of those trading days, carbonneau stock has gone either up or down by more than 10% in a day. that's not investing that is like juggling chainsaws and cupcakes. and even if you like

cupcakes, that's not an attractive proposition. this past week, the stock jumped 40% in a day there was news that lenders elect carbonneau restructure its debt. it might be able to issue new shares. the flip side of that is that it needs some financial help to begin with. the company's been burning a lot of cash in recent years, and the used car business is getting more difficult. carbon is part of this trend of chat room traders who are buying these heavily shorted sort of broken former momentum stocks and riding them higher. it's a i would i would call it i would call it hot garbage bounce. basically there's an e t f of these types of stocks out there. it's called the round hill e t f the tickers meme. it's up 59% year to date. carbonneau is the biggest gainer, three of the other top performing dance. i'm just gonna hold my nose while i read these real quick riot platforms are iot marathon digital m. a r a and upstart holdings pst. crypto a lot of ai lending in there, ok, so just like you have no record. commendations about juggling

chainsaws. i guess you can say don't buy these stocks, i guess. not already. thanks. remember the boy who cried wolf. the wolf eventually showed up. economist david rosenberg says the same holds true for recession. that's next. we never just see the numbers. we see the people. my dad started track and a red barn and waterloo, wisconsin, and now it spans the globe. you wanna take what was given to you and you want to build it and you want to pass it along? if i can do that. i will have done well. that's why we're here. help make it happen. jpmorgan chase. this is

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and buy one. get one absolutely free for just 24 95. that's two for one and save 58% will even include free shipping. get your teeth whiter, guaranteed or return it within 60 days for your money back smile. everything now the difference is literally night and day. i'm always smiling. she's in cause now, marty for much wider, this offer is not available in stores . so call or click now before the special buy one get one free offer goes away. i don't know. a decision from the federal reserve is just days away, and markets are optimistic that the expected rate hike will be the last of this fed's tightening cycle but is a soft landing for the economy. still just wishful thinking. joining me now is rosenberg research president and founder david rosenberg. david thanks so much for coming on the show from up there in canada, where it's i guess a little bit cooler. ah well, you know, up here in canada we get, uh, our

three days of summary year and this is it so but thanks for having me back, jack. it's great to be on a sure thing. so recently, i've seen a lot of commentary that we might actually avoid this much predicted recession, but you are decidedly not in that camp. you know all the rhetoric about the soft landing reminds me of when i was at mother merrill back in 2007. and you know the fact of the matter, jack is that we are and have been for the past year in a soft landing. and you know, in 2007. we were in a soft landing and in 2000, we were in a soft landing and in 1989, we were in a soft landing and 1979 . we're in a soft landing and the soft landing is just the bridge. the road between the economic expansion and then in the aftermath of the fed tightening cycle. ah the inevitable recession. so the soft landing, you could argue as the current reality, but the

question that has to be answered is what will the headlines be weeding? you know, 69 12 months from now, not what they're reading today. so i would have to say that after the most pernicious fed tightening cycle since 1981 and we know that 1981 was followed by 1982, which was a recession that nobody outside of my good friend gary shilling was calling for this is just a bridge. right now. the economy is actually holding in, but it's still very soft. when you average out all the various economic data. it's an economy barely running at 1% annual rate. it's soft, not negative. but all the lags from what the fed has has already done hasn't kicked in yet. that's still staring us in the face. the economy resets the interest rates in both directions with lags. so i think that the recession has been delayed. you could argue, but it has not been derailed. and i think that in

the next quarter or two, it's going to become more apparent. so the light at the end of the tunnel is actually an oncoming train. but the inflation picture , i guess would be good in your view. if these this this very aggressive fed rate hikes their goal is to slow down the economy they have done. so is inflation on the way out. uh well, inflation. look, we've already come down a long way. i find it fascinating how people talk about how inflation is going to be sticky. it's so incredible. you know, it was supposed to be transitory. we got 2 9% from zero in about an 18 month span and within a matter of a year, we're down to 3% on the headline inflation rate. and of course, the core rate of inflation has come down more slowly, but that's because 40% of the core index is residential rents, owners equivalent rent and actual rents and the way that they are calculated by the

bureau of labor statistics. they're still they still include , you know, leasing activity that was done. 12 and three years ago when the rental market was very tight, that's going to come out of the data. you know the rental components or a third of the headline cpi 40% of the core, and it's still running 8% year over year, even though real time data on residential rents is running between zero and 3. so if you get the rental components of the cpi, right, you'll get the inflation call. right i say, jack, look in the next month or two. we're going to see inflation. pull a little bit of a hiccup here, you know, thanks to saudi arabia and thanks to vladimir putin, because we've seen wheat prices go up. in fact, in the commodities market, the futures market you've seen a pretty big increase in all prices off the lows. and in the agricultural complex question is that whether that's going to be sustained, i don't think it will be. but the next couple of months, i think

inflation might hook up a little bit. i don't know how the feds going to react to that. the question is really sustainability. but if you're going to ask me the question, say in the next six or 12 months, whereas inflation going to be the answer is that it's going to be a lot lower than it is today. and right now it's 3. i think a year from now it's going to be closer to 1% than 3% and even if we don't get any more help from gasoline prices or even food, we have to remember that the most dominant component of the cpi is residential rents. david. yeah so that's going to be a very beneficial aspect to that. thank you for that. i just before i let you go. i would like to get one investment idea from you that caught my eye, which was what you called green commodities used have come down a lot. and you think this might be a buying opportunity? yeah absolutely well again. that's a you know, that's a secular theme. and you know, we can understand. just look at the floods and look at the droughts and the heat. climate change is for real and these are areas the

green energy complex, and i think clean energy in particular , um, that has been under invested and the demand is not going to be going away on a secular basis. so i'd say if you're not talking about buying the depths, uh, commodities and especially related to the revamping of the energy grid in the future is going to be very important. and i think a great investment opportunity thank you. for that. we showed the vanik fund, which is one way to get exposure. david rosenberg. great to have your thoughts. we'll see how it bears out over the coming months. i really appreciate it. thanks jack. take care you too, so it's never too early to start thinking about your tire mint plan, and we'll take a look at annuities with the best returns. that's next. race for the gop nomination as economic concerns way on voters inside the latest business polls in which candidates are gaining support monday on the evening edit. our heritage is ingrained

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people planning for their retirement. annuities are a hot by right now. sales hit a record last year as stocks and bonds fell hard, but annuities offered increasingly tasty payouts. barons this week does a deep dive into these controversial financial products. ben traditionally annuities were those things that were sold not bought. that has been changing a bit recently. it really has, i think, partially. it's because of the way people have been retiring has changed. we don't get pensions and these things are insurance products and they pay you pretty nicely. they give you an annual payout that stays the same until you pass away and they have been hot right now. last year, we had surgeon 23% to 312.8 billion of these were bought and sold. um and that's because they're offering very nice yields 5.2% and that's compared with about 4% on a five year treasury. and so you get this kind of steady pay out and that is very attractive, and

it's been helped by these higher rates from the fed. we have to watch out for fees. they can be very expensive. the baron's list we had a top 100 look for ones with very low fees, and, but he also remember that their tax deferred so the money put in. you're not paying taxes on, so don't put in ira. i think the best way to think about these is as a supplement to your social security. if you have payments to make on your house or a car and things like that. that's a great way to make sure that you have an income to pay for it. and you can let the rest of your finance your investments. do what they need to do. got it. so one important thing here jack is there's nothing magical about annuities. they take your money, and they invested in the same stuff that we talked about every week, stocks and bonds. which raises the question of why couldn't you just do that for yourself? why would you give the money to the insurance company? do it for you? well, you could do it for yourself. i mean, this is for someone who doesn't want to, or isn't into you know, figuring out an investing portfolio. they want to take a chunk of money, and they want to

turn it into an income that's going to last for the rest of their lives. that's the key within annuity. it's an insurance company. they can tie it to your lifespan instead of just leaving it up in the air about whether you know the money will last. there is something a little bit comforting about you know, if you're buying life insurance, i have life insurance, basically betting on myself dying, which is, you know , i mean, you have to do it right. but you're buying annuity. you're betting on yourself living. there's something a little comforting about that you should eat healthier by the way. if you own an annuity, absolutely, basically longevity insurance so you don't run out of money when you get older. so that said it's not right for everybody who might be a good candidate for an annuity. i think someone who is just looking for that kind of, you know one stop answer on money lasting lasting a lifetime somebody with a big, diversified portfolio who has been doing it for themselves should keep doing what they're doing in the past. my main objection with annuities was the fees on many of them were atrocious. there are much better options out there today, there are ones that are

affordable on the feet perspective, sure, and there are certain ways i know an advisor in cholera spring. allan roth builds his own annuity for clients to avoid those extra fees, zero coupon bonds and all that, but i can see the attractiveness. that said carlton. we put together a list of 100 noodles give us a high level view of the barron's list . 100 we're going for the flower today. yes. so you know, let's get into it. so i think the thing to start with as simple as as simple as best, which is the fixed structure where you're putting in a lump sum now, which either in a deferred level or immediately you're getting a fixed amount over that time. within that you also have variable annuities, where if you want to take a little bit more market risk because the problem with fixed is it's fixed. happens inflation and a bunch of other things that can kind of eat away at the real spending power of that money. the purpose of that money is to supplement your income so that you know you have enough to live off of now, if you're looking at something like variable annuities, you know you might get more upside but with that you're going to

have greater expense. so i think the most important thing with this into some of jack's point earlier is you have to think about why do you want this product? what is its purpose in its portfolio? what are your concerns, whether it's for your life or potentially airs that might be getting some of these payouts as well and figure out? are you paying the right fee for that sort of thing? so just understand the purpose of it in your financial plan, and are you actually getting what you're paying for with it? if you want to avoid them, jack, we got about 30. seconds left. you are look at bonds this week. you know the thing you can get 5.3% of short term treasuries. if you go out 10 years you only get 3.9% you know nerds call that an inverted yield curve, but it's really severely inverted. it's about as inverted as it's been four decades as a sharp drop off , but i spoke with him shrub this past week about this, and i think too many people are keeping their money too short that that sharp fall off means the market thinks that yields are going lower. you should lock in some longer yields. now, they say, go with corporate instead

of treasurys. on on five or 10 year money. you can still get 5 to 5.5% on high rated corporate bonds, which have a very low default rate. already you guys have a pair of stock picks coming up. plus, jack says america's factories are making a comeback will tell you what industries can help investors produce a profit when we return. what do we always say? son? liberty mutual customizes your car insurance. pay for what? you need, my boy. stay off the freeways only pay for what you need. liberty liberty, liberty. every tourists. tourists that turn into scientists, tourists taking photos that are analyzed by a i so researchers can help life underwater flourish. bms raise your bpm. the open road is an open invitation. then get up and go. go turn some heads. turn

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watching out for our business as much as as much as i am the best thing that i can do for you and your company is working behind the scenes when you don't even know that i'm there working to be that extension of your business anytime that i can be out in front of a customer, that's that's the sweet spot for me. idea. jack for years, people have lamented the loss of manufacturing jobs in this country. are we finally seeing that reverse coming back? us factory construction spending hit a record high last year. companies like intel, gm us deal eli lilly, many others building new plants. america's share of global foreign direct investment . someone out there is drinking a glass of milk right now. i want them to take time and swallow. i do not want them spring milk. on the person next

to them when they hear this amazing figure america's share of global foreign direct investment hit 24% over the past two years. that's up 8% points from the average from the decade before. in other words, money is flowing into the us these are all signs that the reassuring that we theorized about during the pandemic is really happening . manufacturing is bouncing back. ups says that trend could last through the end of this decade and next one. that is good news for stocks that are tied to factory. construction hubs like rockwell automation, eaten emerson electric and train technologies. think that's good news, right? i'm excited about that on ambiguous good news already, let's go to actionable ideas on ambiguously actionable . what's yours? carlton might be a little ambiguous here. i'm taking a look at goldman sachs. the bank has had a tough time had some serious writedowns at quarter. missed on earnings. i don't want to say that all of the bad news is behind it. but it's trading at book value, which has this just above book value, which has historically been a good spot to get in.

really, the bank does not have to do much more to improve. just get a pick up in dealmaking, and it's looking like a good entry point right now, ben for people with bad knees, you've got an actual idea. looking at medtronic. it's been a laggard in the medical device space. but this whole group is starting to pick up now because people are finally going out and getting these procedures. and so here's a stock that bottomed in march. it's been rallying a little bit since then. but now it's at its highest level since may, and if you can break above 92, i think there's a lot of good upside ahead. it's one of the last reporters of the med tech stocks so we won't get results from it until at the end of august, and that gives us this room to run as the other start reporting already both good ideas, jack, thanks for the good news. to read more. check out this week's edition at barrons .com. 100 annuities don't forget to follow us on twitter that's at barron's online and that's all for us. we'll see you next week on barron's roundtable. >> hello, folks.