year hiatus. not all borrowers will be paying their full share. people eligible for the new save plan will have their payments capped at 5% of their monthly income. under the plan any interest not covered in those payments is eliminated. we will be following this on mornings with maria on fox business. maria will be back at 10:00 a.m. on the fox news channel for sunday mornings futures. exclusive interviews with nikki haley. house foreign affairs committee chairman and irs whistle blower. that will do it for us. thank you for watching. we will see you next time. >> barron's roundtable sponsored by global x ets. ♪

♪ >> welcome to barron's roundtable where we get the headlines and prepare you for the weekend ahead. all eyes were on that chair jerome powell in jacksonville wyoming. all strategists for what it means for markets and the economy. the best-performing stock may surprise you. the stock pick writer will break down the secret to the company success. later charles schwab stock is struggling as it tries to control stock. behind the troubles and what you can do. we begin as always with three things investors ought to be thinking about right now. out enough to sustain a rally. is it a warning to the market? an impact to the business.

there may be opportunities for investors. finally, retail earnings are taking a hit in the rise in shoplifting has something to do with it. what it says about the industry and the health of the consumer. my colleagues ben, andrew and al . it seemed like the s&p 500 was able to have a good week. >> it does look like a good week what worries me is that they had these great earnings on wednesday night. the market went out and rallied early on thursday. it went right down. ended up down 8% on the day. that is not the kind of trading you want to see. >> we were talking about video. we do have another potential play looking to go public. what does the performance mean for them? >> it should be a little worrisome. if the ai trade is running out of steam, it may have a tough

time doing that. >> we definitely got news from jackson hole this week. a ton of economic data coming next week. what do you make out of all of it? >> he ritter rated that message and that means we do have to look at the data that is coming. payroll, pcp and those two data points will tell us a lot about what the fed will do at its september meeting. >> got to love having a favorite inflation match. it has been a summer of natural disasters. we had wildfires in hawaii, hurricanes in florida and that is just to name a few. what does this mean for insurance companies? >> four consumers and the companies we interact with, homeowners and car owners their rates are going up. that is a function of all of these issues.

rising 11% year-over-year. car insurance is up 17% year-over-year compared to bls data. so, what has happened is for a while there, the claims, they both paste the rate gains and earnings retract. now we are getting to the point where they are catching up. terrible for consumers will end up being good for the stocks. >> are there stocks like those consumers feeling squeezed that should take a look to offset some of that pain? >> we like for. we ought -- home and car insurer that week earnings. now looking for a rebound. we like guidewire, software and analytics becoming more important.

also, another pnc insurer arch capital group. those are the four that we like. >> a ton of retail earnings this week. macy's warning about deteriorating credit. at does not seem to be the only problem plaguing retailers. >> shoplifting has become a big problem for retailers across the country. dix, nordstrom, macy's, target. many of which are at multi- year lows. one company has gotten it right. costco is handling it well. traveling through a temp percentage point of sales. >> is there anything that the industry can do about this? it is a serious problem showing up on our news reports. >> in many parts of the country, california, new york city and other places, shoplifting as effectively been decriminalized. they feel this is a crime of

poverty. pushing for tougher presentation it seems to be not to offend everybody. >> trying to go to a drugstore and everything is behind lock and key which cannot be good for foot traffic either. thank you so much, andrew. powell says inflation has moved down. well abo

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signaling that more rate hikes could be coming. economic indicators showing a mixed bag of conflicting readings on the health of the economy. joining now with the reaction to all of this is ed yardeni. thank you for joining us today. big picture we had the big speech on friday morning. what do we learn from jackson hole? >> in some ways it is kind of reminded me of a seinfeld restaurant. we heard just about all of this before. nothing really new. i think everybody agrees that the tone of the speech and the content was basically hawkish. that is the nature of the beastr they lost some of it as inflation reared its ugly head last year and they only started to tighten and march of last year. inflation peaked last summer.

it's been coming down. the fed simply does not want to declare mission accomplished. that would be a jinx because i hope they do not do that. they want to maintain their credibility as inflation fighters. carleton: i always appreciate a seinfeld reference. last year's powell speech intended to spook the markets. how does it compare to what he said friday morning? >> well, so far it is pretty clear that market reaction has been fairly muted. it was not anything like what we had a year ago where the market took a dive on his speech. last year's speech was often described as the pain speech. get ready, we are going to create a lot of pain because that is the only way to bring inflation down. the basic message we will have to bring inflation down and that may cause some pain. that is what he said back then. the markets did not like to.

the stock market took a dive and bond yields rose. a lot of it is kind of a repeat of the previous statements by the fed chairman, by other federal officials. we know they are serious about getting inflation down. what was important about the speech, apparently, chairman powell trying to squash any idea that they will even consider raising their target to 3% for inflation. quite adequate to keeping it down to 2%. carleton: make sense. just curious, we have seen interest rates go up by five and a quarter percentage rates over this cycle, why have some economies seemed so resilient in the face of that? what is going on here? >> i have been arguing that we have been in a recession. we've been in a recession since

the beginning of last year. it is just a rolling recession. we've had a few of these unusual phenomenon over the years. we had one in the mid- 80s, one in the mid- 1990s, 2014, 15, 16. an economic slowdown. it was a growth recession and other way to describe it. basically, it was a rolling recession. housing went into recession very quickly at the beginning of last year. consumers, after they lifted the lockdown restrictions, we all had cabin fever we wanted to go shopping to release that dopamine to make us feel better. i'll be goodbye was goods. we could not buy services. they still had social distancing restrictions. we had this buying binge for goods. we got everything that we wanted

all of a sudden, we could travel we could go to restaurants. a big pivot towards services. we've had a recession in the goods sector of the economy. now i think we are heading to a rolling recession or the rolling recession will head into the commercial real estate market. meanwhile, a rolling recovery starting in good spirit chairman powell mentioned the fact that even housing seems to be recovering, notwithstanding the increase in interest rates we have had. carleton: rolling recovery certainly sounds encouraging. thank you again, ed yardeni. i would love to have you back on again soon. >> my pleasure. carleton: the best-performing stop of the past 25 years may surprise you. providing for your family is a top priority.

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monster beverage has proven itself to be the best-performing stock over the past 25 years. the company is on track to continue its monster rally. outperform big competitors like coca-cola and pepsi and even some tech leaders like apple and microsoft. we are on the story and joining the panel now is jacob. put monster in perspective for us. >> in the '90s a bankrupt drink company. the current ceos came in the '90 s about the company and said, you know what, we see what red bull is doing and what was a new energy drink, caffeine and sugar and all this crazy stuff. we want in on this market. today the companies have $60 million. that is a lot more.

more than boston beer. almost two thirds the size of anheuser-busch. how they get there? 40% annualized gain of stock over a long time. carleton: that is definitely impressive. how were they able to pull this off? >> it looks like just a beverage company. they are a marketing company. when those guys bought the company, they said we will market this as a lifestyle, not just a drink. they did that, they grew incredibly over the years. it started out as a sports drink for mostly younger males. they have students drinking monster beverage to study late at night. households for parties are doing this. carleton: this is not advice, by the way. [laughter] >> jacob, the company reported its earnings. their reaction was not good. what did they say or did not say that made everyone so concerned?

>> they were okay, they just were not resounding. the stock came into earnings way up as it often does. the stock pulled back about 5%. the revenue grew about 14%. there is a volume growth for monster. they show the strength of the brand, the earnings grew roughly in line with revenue growth. there was nothing wrong with the earnings, the stock was just expensive. >> you must be bullish about the future. what do they have coming down the pike for the last 25 years? >> in order to participate in what people expect would be continued growth of energy drinks, they need to innovate projects. zero sugar products. trying to sell more to women traditionally. general male demographic. in order to do all of these things well, they have to marco

it as well as a always have. they will flex out marketing muscle and the thing i really love is overseas, the growth of energy drinks and even hard seltzer is still catching up to where the u.s. is. more than 20% growth in some countries. >> monster has a premium valuation. they are moving 40 times this year's earnings. is it worth that premium? >> on the forward 12 month basis 33 times per earnings. that is a huge premium. if you look at the growth of earnings and a little bit of margin expansion and shared buybacks, you are talking about a stock that can continue. i'm not looking for 40 times multiple, i'm looking for a multiple to stay here. not just three or four years, but many years to be maintained. >> ironic that at a time when

the beverages are trending towards a healthier drink. a drink loaded with sugar. four times the caffeine of a coke. the healthier trend may upend the monster story? >> so far it has not. you are honest, this can is 30 calories. i was about to say it is really good. i am not concerned. you have years of growth that you will continue to have. >> when you are looking at the beverage stocks, there seems to be a difference. monster versus coca-cola. what is the investor profile there? >> when you buy coke and pepsi you are buying diversified products. you are getting watered down growth. you are getting very stable consumer stable companies. i don't look at monster beverage as a consumer stable company. i look at it as a growth company for the growth of esther.

>> do you think coke or pepsi may buy them? >> a $60 -- $60 billion market cap. i am not thought of that. they do a great job. >> they have that distribution deal with coca-cola that is made coke talk about them a little bit. i think you are right. monster is getting a little bit too big to be an easy acquisition. carleton: one of the things you mentioned, jacob, how they are trying to branch out to other demographics. looking around this table i am the only one. i am a coffee drinker. not a monster drinker. i will do a little taste test here with the original product. see if they have a shop. bottoms out. that has a lot of flavors. >> more targeted towards women. >> we did not pre-taste this. >> i did not. i am looking at the sauer heads. let's take a go.

yeah. [laughter] >> i think that says it all. >> it is very tart. thank you so much, jacob. very animated. you have a pair of investment ideas.

carleton: andrew, spent a ton of time looking at the bank charts. there is one chart that is actually looking worse. that is been charles schwab. what is going on here? >> it's been a tough year. a big underwater bond portfolio. they have bank deposits where

their customers keep their cash and people taking the money out. a half a percentage point on the money when you have a counter fidelity 5%. >> what can the average person do about this? any advice for just the average investor at home? >> look at the interest rate they are getting in their account. getting only about half a percentage point, you should move that money into a money market fund and consider moving it back when you have to trade. trading firm your cash account. many people should probably keep most of their money, almost all of their money in the market. any other brokerage basically paying little on their cash accounts. >> what is charles schwab doing to get a handle on this? >> stopped taking their money out. at is essentially their strategy

they don't seem to be raising the rate. carleton: any cost cutting measures they are doing? >> they are looking to cut costs it is a tougher environment right now. carleton: thank you. some actionable ideas. >> i like gravel, big rocks and small rocks, cr h is one of the largest providers of aggregates. growing construction services businesses. one if not the biggest builder of roads in the u.s. a lot of infrastructure spending it trades at about 12 times or 13 times estimated earnings. at is basically half the multiple of companies like marietta and vulcan. european company that will now have a primary listing in the u.s. earnings this week was fine. i like rocks. carleton: alex, ben? >> i like movies. netflix has dropped 13% since a

hit a high a couple months ago. now analysts are starting to upgrade it. it is not disney, it is not paramount. all it has is streaming movies. it does not have to worry about cable or any of that stuff. a better position from the writer's strike. over at loop capital think there is a 20% upside or $500. it looks great. carleton: you can watch the seinfeld refunds -- reruns as much as you want. thank you. great ideas today. to read more check out this week's edition at barron's roundtable.com. don't forget to follow us on larry: hello. i'm larry kudlow. it i