i look for those kinds of things. the market is holding in there. yeah, this current quarter is going to be okay on gdp, it won't be 6%, galledman just went up -- goldman just went up to 3.2% from 2, but remember, i'm not here to preach the stock market. i watch want you to own great companies. i want you to manage your portfolio. i want you to get prosperity the, i want you to the change your life and the lives of your children. so we've got president biden's going to come up and talk about the economy. it won't change anything about this economy. here's the bottom line. you have to be in charge of your own future, and that's what we're here for, right, liz claman? liz: well, nobody else is going to do it for you. not the government, not anybody else. charles: you're right. liz: you. with our help. [laughter] with charles and myself. okay. we're here for you guys. by the way, we do need to get you this breaking news, we are under 9 hours new before the midnight deadline, and hope is running out as the clock winds

down and the two sides, the big three automakers and the united autoworkers, remain far apart. let's look at shares of the big three awe to to merricks right now because we are getting closer and closer here. they are in the red but not by too much. they're actually all three the off the lows of the session. if a deal cannot be reached between them and the united autoworkers union, the uaw announced it will begin a partial or standing strike strategy wrap workers will initially walk off the job at targeted plants that a make engines and transmissions. hence, depriving other factories still open ofty parts they need to turn out vehicles. news breaking minute by minute, we're going to have more later on in the show on that potential strike9. in the meantime, the markets performing much better than the big three. once again, neither shaken nor stirred by9 hotter than expected inflation numbers at the manufacturing level. we're looking at pretty good gains for the dow jones industrials, 368 points to the whereupon side.

nasdaq -- to the upside. nasdaq higher by 126 points or a full percentage point here. we've got the s&p 500 up 40 points. also up nearly 1%. but maybe some of the positive sentiment is coming from the biggest ipo since 2021. chip design company arm debuting today, the first trade blasting through the $51 per share ipo price, gapping up immediately to $56. right now we're at a $58.80, that's a 5.25% -- 15.25% gain. off the session high of $61.99. a lot is riding on the company that counts the world's biggest semiconductor makers as customers. can it grow new streams of business specifically in the a.i. space fast enough to justify its rich valuation? joining us live in his first final hour of trade interview from our fox business studios with the plan to pull it off is arm ceo rene haas.

congratulations. you are well above that $51 per share of initial pricing. what does that feel like right now for you and the team? >> well, it's -- well, thank you the, liz. it's a great day for arm, it's a great day for all our employees, it's a great day for all the employees that have worked for arm since our 33-year inception. this was my first time through ad road show, so a lot to learn. but the advisers tell me if you can price at the ooh high end of the range and go out at that number, it's a good day. so we're very, very pleased. liz: i've got to ask you about last night during the pricing because there were all kinds of headlines coming new that then had to be retracted or corrected. the "wall street journal" came out and said $51 -- $52 a shear. then a bunch of other news outlets followed, and then they changed it back to $51 a share. what was going on at that time right before you and the bankers settled on 51? >> yeah. no, i wasn't watching what was

going on in the news. we had a pricing meeting, we had a dialogue about what number made sense. and as i said, the goal all along was to try to the price at the high end of the range which was $ 47-51, which is where we ended up. liz: your company initially valued at $54.5 billion, but right now it's around $60 billion -- [laughter] and it's still though -- yeah, i know you're smiling because that is certainly a gift to anybody who got in early. but, you know, the question becomes when softbank recently bought back a chunk, they were very interested in seeing a high valuation, and it was valued at about $62 billion. so give me a sense of where you think the disconnect is at this point. >> you know, i think softbank made it very clear that when he bought the shares of the vision fund which essentially gave him a larger control of the company, softbank owned 75%, vision fund owned 25%, softbank bought

vision fun shares, and the net of it was softbank now after the offering owns 90%. so i think that tells you that softbank can xmas saw are -- and massa saw are optimistic about the long-term prospects for the company. liz: i know you guys are exhausted from the road show and, of course, the big debut day, but now the really hard work begins and that is to start getting the numbers up. recent quarterly numbers showed revenue, i don't want to say stagnating, but it missed by a hair. so what do you need to do? what is the plan right now to generate more revenues and justify what is, what many researchers say is a pretty rich valuation? >> the last three years, liz, our overall growth was about 15% and we did a large pivot of our strategy, diversified into cloud, into automotive, and we're really seeing the benefits of that now. we're not an easy company to look at on a quarter to quarter

basis because, frankly, the markets that we move in are long in terms of the soft ware investment, the product development. so what i really spend my time focusing on is the next 5-10 years. and i think in this era of a.9 i., the growth opportunities for arm a are just enormous. liz: how aggressively are you working on your a.i. offerings? let's just let our viewers know, you do not manufacture chips. you manufacture the designs, and then you charge a licensing or royalty fee to all the big chip designers, taiwan semi, apple, nvidia, intel, amd. is so what can you get up to speed we regarding a.i. and the offerings that are now something that every single company out there whether they're technology or not really want? >> yeah, so you're right, we don't build anything per se. we license our designs which is a cpu, and the cpu is the center of every electronics device out there. 70% of the world's population uses arm in some way, shape or

form, and that's because you have to have a cpu in every single device. and it would be natural then to assume that a.i. is going to be pervasive on arm. it already is today when you look at a edge devices like an amazon alexa, google assistant, you know, that's a.i. when you start looking at the next big wave, generative a.i., a.i. in the cloud, there's a place for arm too. we recently partnered with nvidia building that, grace hopperrer super chip and combines it with 72 arm cpus that build the world's most advanced a.i. chip. that can't be done without arm, and that's really because of the power efficiency of arm, the fact that you can get much, much better performance in the same power envelope. it's just very, very significant for us. is so i think a.i., for us, is going to be yet another tail wynn for growth across all our markets. liz: well, to that point of what you just talked about with those 72 pieces of all things, you know, arm, do you get better

margins for those particular cpus? [laughter] >> the way to think about it is quantity is our friend. so the more a.i. applications out there need more cpus. and the way to think about it is applications or devices that didn't have a cpu may need one to run a.i., devices that had a few cp u.s. us will need more. -- cpus will need more. as that number gets bigger and bigger, that drives growth for us in terms of overall revenue. liz: amazing. and that, i think,s has not been clarified until now, and i'm really glad that you said that so people understand the kind of runway especially at a time when artificial intelligence is sort of like the the cool kid on the block. sit with us us at the cafeteria table. i want to talk about china, and you've talked about this in the past with us, but a quarter of your revenue comes from china. obviously, this is a risk that you had to point out in your ipo prospectus, and it took up three

pages on china riskses. [laughter] what happens if things really turn south between the united states and china and the u.s. says you can't do business with china anymore? >> yeah. so for china, which has been a growth market for us as well, most of our business there now comes from the areas that we see from the rest are of the world, and that's around the cloud data center and automotive and all the growth with you've seen with evs and such. so i would say, liz, the way i think about china for us is the exposure and/or risks are probably no different than any other tech ceo has. these are uncertain times, certainly, in terms of how to navigate through the future, and i don't have a crystal ball in terms of where things are going to go. i can say anything that comes back from governments relative to compliance, of course we come comply -- comply. but in terms of speculating where things go, i don't think arm is any different than any other tech company. liz: as we finish up, as i was saying, there were some researchers writing out some

notes saying we don't recommend this ipo because it is, you know, the pe ratio is not going to be the very helpful, etc. what would you say to them if they were sitting across from you or an investor who's listening to them, especially at a time when you were able to have this amazing moment? we're looking at it on the screen, with your cambridge headquarters, the confetti coming down. life gets tougher after ipo day and the confetti settles on the ground. >> yeah. i would say that 70% of population uses arm. it's really, really hard for me to describe a device or market that we're not in versus we are in. and what we've seen over the last decade is the pervasiveness of digital in our lives. so more a.i., more compute, more applications that need low power need more arm. so i am so optimistic about the next 5-10 years. it's going to be exciting. liz: well, investors at the moment are optimistic. you are 14 upside from the open here and, rene, we will continue

to have you on because we want to follow this story. it is central to the big tech -- >> my pleasure. liz: -- narrative. thank you. >> thank you. my pleasure. liz: cpi, not cpu, consumer price index rose in august on higher energy prices, gasoline going nuts, right? is relief coming anytime soon? did you see this? oil prices topping $90 a barrel for the first time in 10 months, and yet e the stock market is not spooked. the dow just hit a gain of 400 points and slightly off it right now, but while i was talking with r are ene, we went up 400 points. the floor show is up next. with the closing bell 50 minutes away, energy winners driving the s&p gains include hess, marathon, conocophillips and exxonmobil. we are coming right back, don't move. ♪ ♪ you can't buy great conversations or moments that matter,

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liz: yeah, market rally, in the green. there is now just a single blue chip in the red in the final hour of trade. big financials leaping to the top of the dow heat map here. goldman sachs is up there followed by caterpillar, dow, walgreens, then jpmorgan chase. american express is in the top ten. what's the laggard? visa is the one lone name in the red down about the 2.# 33%. by the way, both visa and mastercard have received a letter signed by a bipartisan group of senators asking the credit card networks to halt their plan transaction fee hikes. we'll see if they do it. there's intel, unchanged. proof today american consumers are swiping those credit cards at a brisk pace, august retail sales rose .6% month over month,

much hotter than expected. the expectation was a gain of .2%. and manufacturing inflation also rising. headline ppi last month popping .7 month over month and year-over-year prices spiked 1.6%, just compare that to july's cooler .8% of a gain. sick key inflation. rising energy costs an issue for both with producers and consumers. crude oil gushing above $90 a barrel in the aftera market here, $90.37, and wholesale gasoline stands right now at $2.74, it is up just a fraction at the moment. it has spiked 7% month to date. and yet optimism the fed is finished with interest rate hikes has all the major indices e powering higher. dow is up 373 points, the s&p up 411, the nasdaq up 135. s&p up 41. and the transports seeing a gain

of 139 points. let's get right to the floor show, gene goldman and t3 trading's scott redler. gene, a strong rally on the same day the data show inflation persists and the european central bank tightened rates to a record high. are investors starting to get more comfortable with higher for longer interest rates and piling into stocks? >> hey, liz. thank you so much for having me on your show. i think the market today the investor sentiment has really switched. we've gone from good news is bad news to good news is good news. a soft landing is likely or possible. i'm not sure i'm a big fan of that a because with, yes, the data on the consumer looked good, but a lot of it was driven by higher energy prices, higher gas prices, higher auto sales, but if you pull that i out, retail sales weren't that great. inflation, ppi was good on the core side but, again, not that great. we're concerned that this whole soft landing may not happen, and there's lots ofheadwinds. we saw -- we still haven't felt

the full effect of rate hikes, we've got consumers slowing down. savingsing dwindling, taxes due for -- are. liz: what do you mean the consumer's slowing down? retail sales just beat. >> yeah. but if you pull out the headline number, you pull out gas and autos, it's still not that a great. and the prior month was revised a little bit lower. the consumer right now, consumed delinquencies are rising fast. we just surpassed $1 trillion of credit card debt. we have 70 million more credit cards issued verse sudden pre-can covid levels. the consumer will be urn pressure. soft landing, we are a little ap rehencive about it. liz: scott redler, when you look at the s&p, in fact, all three majors are back above their 50-day moving average which is, of course, a key metric that people watch. does this make you say let me trim some of my gainers here? >> well, actually, i think it breeds a little confidence. everyone's been talking about how the second half of september

is historically weaker. a lot of people like gene is a little conservative or thinking that maybe things aren't going to end well as far as a recession. the trickle down from higher rates which are, they're all concerns. but the price action always rules, and we've been in a consolidation in the s&p for two years. so the s&p's going to consolidate more, we're in the same 1309 two years ago of -- spot two years ago. so i personally think we've been normalizing. i do think the fed's going to be higher for longer, but i do think that the economy's going to be able to handle it. i don't think we have major upside from where we are above 4500. i do think we're set up for a fourth quarter rally. liz: okay. >> we've got a lot of news that should have brought us lower, and it didn't. technically, that probably means in mid october through december or january we get a move maybe back to the 46 or 7 high, maybe

even to 4700. i don't think you run away pretty, but recently sector selection has been how traders are making money. liz: that brings me to you, gene. you've got about $121 billion in assets under management. where are you taking some chunks and sprinkling them throughout different sectors? which sec editors? >> sure. broadly, we like value over growth, but our favorite sectors are, number one, industrials. hook at the exposure to agriculture with climate change, food moving to different parts of the world, defense spending is rising dramatically in europe and canada, percentage of defense spending has gone from 2% to 8%. we love industrials. number two, we love financials. today the ipo market is starting to open up. financials, year-over-year comparisons for capital markets are looking pretty good. also m&a activity. our third area is more of a defensive sector, health care. i think health care, cheap valuations plus a lot of drugs coming off of patents. all three of those sectors we are big buyers of.

liz: okay. scott, as a classic trader, how are you trading arm? the big debut today, it is the up about 15.25% right now. it gapped up higher. buying an ipo on ipo day is a little dangerous as we saw with cava and some of the other names. [laughter] oddity. they're well off their original highs. but talk to me about what trades you make in, around or on arm. >> well, we actually had a really good trade this morning. i talk about the art of the first day, you know, for the first maybe 10, 15, 20 the minutes to see if actually there's demand or if the supply outweighs it. so what i do is i look at the open ecoing print, okay? if you -- opening print, okay? it opened somewhere around 56.10, it went up to 57-ish and pulled back and consolidate for 5 a-s. at that particular point -- 5 minutes. at that particular point it put in a low of 55 or 55.55, if i

remember exactly correctly. once it got above 57, it showed in the opening 10 minutes there were more buy years than seller, and it went all the way up to 62. that was a great active day trade. listen, i know day trading is taboo with which it's not. everybody does it. there was a lot of money to be made in the first hour. it's been consolidating since. is so now trade number two is can arm stay above the the print or the low of today which is about just say 55-ish. if it does, maybe there's another trade in the week ahead above 62 the because you have price discovery. but to break 55-ish in the next few days, it shows there's a lot more sellers and buyers, and then you have to look at 51, and then you have to give a whole consolidation for investors to see where the basis, the chart pattern and maybe there's an opportunity 6 months from now. you have to take it depending on

your time frame. so far today was a decent day. they didn't open it up with 6 the 2 or 65 and crush it. they open it up nice and conservatively, and at this point i think people have a good feeling about it and now we'll know our levels and we'll proceed a little cautiously but optimistically over the next few sessions. liz: i have a full-time job, scott. [laughter] no, we love our day traders, we love our short, we love all our viewers, so thank you very much. and, again, right now arm at $58.56, and we'll be continuing to watch it throughout the show. the gambling proverb the house always wins, you've heard that? maybe should be the hacker always wins. some of the biggest names in vegas including mgm and caesar's target by cyber attacks. we've got brand new details on how vegas' top gambling parlors are dealing with the online assault. and from sin city to the high seas, an upgrade in the cruise sector has norwegian cruise lines right at the top of the

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liz: we've got this fox business breaking news right now, ford just moments ago saying the odds are, quote, very high now for a targeted strike by the united autoworkers union. ford is saying at this moment to sources that reuters is quoting a 12-week strike would cost an

average employee $17,500 in lost wages and profit shareing. and as we continue to watch this, we've got the big three down slightly, each one of them down slightly, but we are now about 8 hours and 30 minutes away from the deadline for a deal. and if you don't get that, you will probably see, according to ford, targeted strikes, meaning individual, different plants seeing strikes but not yet the whole work force under the uaw. let's get to filings that show warren buffett's berkshire hathaway sold 5.5 million shares in hp inc. stock bringing berkshire's previous stake down to 11.7%. that sale comes after the maker of personal computers and printers or cut its full-year earnings estimate last month, hp's down 2.25% but off the lows of the session. smooth sailing for carnival and norwegian cruise lines after the companies were upgraded to an outright buy. redburn says the desire to

travel after the pandemic is continuing to drive demand. we've got norwegians up 5.6%, carnival up 3.6%. investors are betting on penn entertainment after deutsche bank put the stock on its catalyst call buy idea list. penn will move higher in the short term and is calling the launch of espn bet a key event to watch. deutsche expects the launch to grab attention from may yo -- major media outlets. penn's up 8.5%. and investors are embracing international game -- shares. the unit may fetch $4-5 billion in a sale. igt said, quote, we are still in the process of exploring strategic alternatives for our global gaming and play digital segments and cannot comment on rumors or speculation. we've got igt up nearly 10%, apollo's getting a tiny butch -- bump of about .7%.

mgm resorts at this hour still trying to get up and running after a cyber attack earlier this week affecting customers' ability to access at tms, the slot machines, reservation -- reservations and even hotel room locks and has sent the stock tumbling nearly 5% just since monday. kelly o'grady joins us with the latest and also another vegas giant, kelly, that got hit by a cyber attack. >> reporter: that's right. the latest news, liz, is that caesar's is confirming they experienced a hack in recent weeks and reportedly had to pay tens of millions of dollars to the person taters -- perpetrators in that situation. mgm shared, quote, they are working diligently to resolve the cybersecurity issue while addressing individual guest's needs. it seems mgm isn't out of the woods yet. the good news is the gaming and casino floors are back online, but rom keys aren't working, nor is the restaurant reservation

system, and on top of that the web site is still down. you'll see message if you go there right now which reveals that the booking system is down as well and that, of course, makes it hard to the take new reservations. fbi, as you said, the investigation is still ongoing, but mgm is going to incur significant revenue loss x that's one of the reasons that moody's is assessing the incident if as credit-negative. quote, the cybersecurity incident highlights key risks related to business operations, heavy reliance on technology and the operational disruption costs when systems need to go offline or are unoperable. i what want to highlight this, i found this really interesting. bit site, a cybersecurity ratings company, they recently scored mgm an f for how quickly it can fix exposure to vulnerabilities. so so a bit prophetic there, and mgm also had a data breach back in 2019 is. we spoke to cybersecurity experts, and they say casinos make good target. >> it's the value of the

experience. there's an immediate impact on revenue, and then there's a long-term impact on reputation. the impact on an organization like that is significant and would then be a classic target for ransomware as a result of them having to likely pay for the ransomware. >> reporter: now, mgm is offering free changes and cancellations to anyone affect by this but, liz, imagine spending all that money to go to vegas for the weekend, and this is what you're dealing with. liz: i know, i know. it's -- these skullduggery losers, i hate these hackers. kelly, thank you very much. [laughter] all right. folks, in the past couple of minutes a bunch of headlines are coming out from the auto leaders about the looming uaw strike. if it does happen, aside from the striking workers of course, which stocks get hit and which see a hike this? morningstar's u.s. auto equity analyst david wison hopping in

the chair to tell us what a work stop stoppage could mean. closing bell, 26 the minutes away. we've got the dow jones industrials still up about 341 points. we are coming right back, and we're talking about the very latest breaking headlines in the potential uaw strike. ♪ ♪

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with a free trial today. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪ ) constant contact's advanced automation lets you send the right message at the right time, every time. ( ♪ ) constant contact. helping the small stand tall. liz: breaking news, a bunch of big three auto executives are making all kinds of headlines right now. for general motors, with just 8 hours and 19 minutes before the strike deadline, ford is saying that the odds are very high for a target strike by the uaw and that it has not heard a counteroffer from the union yet. general motors is saying that it made another offer to the united autoworkers' union to hike wages by 20. 20. and remains in talks to cut a deal. as the clock winds down and the

union's 4-year contract expires tonight at 11:59 # p.m. eastern, this would be the first ever simultaneously strike against gm ford and stellantis. uaw president sean feign came out swinging yesterday. listen to how he put it. >> we're likely going to have to take action. and just as we have approached our negotiations differently than we have in the past, we are preparing to strike these companies in a way they've never epstein before. never seen before. liz: the main uaw demands, they would like up to 40% in wage increases, a 32-hour workweek with 40 hours of pay, restored cost of living pay raises, ending pay tiers for factory jobs and pension increases for retirees. according to more perfect union, gm, ford and stellantis churned out a combined $31 billion in free cash flow in 2022, and the union says share some of that

pie. as we look at the automakers which are flat to just slightly lower right now, joining me in a first on fox business is morningstar research u.s. auto equities analyst david whiston. sudden listen or -- suddenly, these executives are out at the detroit auto show saying we tried or we're trying. is this politics? what's really happening here? >> well, i think what's really happening is both sides are very far apart from each other not just on one issue like wages, there's so much more to all beyond wages, pensions, c.o.l.a., things like that as your graphic showed. i'm sure both sides are saying that they're always willing to talk, but neither side really wants to say what the other wants to hear. and at this point in that video you played from the uaw president, there's a rally this friday at 5 p.m. featuring

senator bernie sanders. so it seems pretty clear or that both sides are heading to a strike, and it won't be the the first ever one on all three which creates a lot of interesting dynamics. liz: who gets hit or harder, is it the automakers or the autoworkers if this does come to pass? they'll start with a different type of strategy where they will target certain plants that make the, you know, the the engines. and so, therefore, other plants where they are not striking yet will not have engines, so they'll be completely gummed up. >> right. he's calling this a stand-up strike in an homage to the sit-down strikes of the 1930s. it's effectively a bottleneck strike or targeted strikes is another word that gets used out there. what'll probably happen is certain key power train plants are going on strike immediately, gm's michigan power plant because it provides transmissions to five different

gm assembly plants, four of which are in the united states. and over time, the uaw plan to keep adding to that strike or have people go strike, answer the call, and eventually you could have everyone on strike. they're doing it that way, they say it's to maintain flexibility, but, frankly, the strike fund isn't going to last very long if everybody goes on strike at once. liz: yeah. it is not going to be a good situation for either side, i would think. but here's who is benefiting at the moment. we were just looking in the commercial break, both toyota and honda shares hitting a 52-week high today. do you see an opportunity in other stock names where they will at least be able to to churn out vehicles on their assembly lines because they are not unionized? >> yeah, and that's the tricky part to all this. i mean, initially in a shorter strike it's very much advantage anyone who's, does the not have uaw representation, so that's tesla and basically all the

transplants operating in the u.s. a very long strike could have ramifications far beyond michigan and far beyond the midwest and just the detroit three because how it affects the suppliers. it's not going to be a big supplier like a lee or a magna that's going to get shut down, but there could be some tier two, tier three supplier that supplies not just to the detroit three, but tier one supplierses for everyone, all the transplans, and in that scenario, you could be looking at the whole industry getting shut down. that's not necessarily the base case scenario, but it could work out that way. another way to play it if you're an investor is the dealers. in particular, -- motor group. as long as the rest of the supply chain keeps going, they're not going to be impacted much at all. liz: david can whiston, we'll be watching it. fox business and foxbusiness.com will be getting everybody

headlines as they hit the tape. thank you very much. we are coming right back with the man who created the inverted yield curve indicator that shows recession? he'll put a point on calendar can when he sees one coming. ♪ ♪ ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures.

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liz: all right, here we go. take a look at shares of disney at the moment. they're up 1 1/2%. and why are we putting it on the same board as next star broadcasting washup 5 1/2%? well, apparently there are reports that the mouse house is in talks with entertainment company next star, about the possible sale of its abc networks. with us charlie gasparino. >> full disclosure. i'm not able to confirm it. spoke with iger. didn't mention it. liz: did not mention it. >> did not mention it. i'm dubious there is not another layer here. i've been speaking with media executives and bankers and the reason why is because if you look at next star's market cap five billion dollars. liz: tiny. not tiny but too small to buy abc.

>> you would think so. how much is abc worth? disney bought abc in 99? liz: no idea. >> '96. bought it from,. liz: cap cities. >> not just abc, espn. this apparently doesn't involve the espn part. my guess there are other stuff going on here if this is real. so do senior media executives i spoke to unnamed. next star by itself. take abc out of the valuation, it still has to go for 10 billion, something like that? i don't know. can a five billion dollar company afford a 10 billion-dollar asset? no. it would have to go into wicked death and private equity. private equity has been sniffing around tv stations. apollo tried to go after next star a couple years ago. there is that wrinkle.

liz this may not be the whole network. eiger has said, we reported this publicly wants to sell assets maybe espn. he may be sell local stations. >> owned and operated. >> no nextsar, not the network itself. liz: not "good morning america," whole shooting match. >> maybe. here is the other thing to consider here. we're in a wicked cord-cutting environment. network news is like, you know, newspapers back in, i would say in 1990, 2005, when newspapers were starting -- liz: millions of people still watch david muir and lester holt. >> be clear. millions of people were watching newspapers. the trajectory was down. disney is unloading this know and see as downward trajectory unloading at a price essentially

is pretty cheap, maybe something that next star with a private equity investor can afford at you know, seven, six billion dollars. if that is the case, this just gives you an indication just how rough cord-cutting has been and you know it takes out the weakest -- listen the internet disintermediated weakest links of print news. what was the first one to go? news magazines. i worked for one at the time. "newsweek" when it was really good magazine. within six months the thing was in bad shape. "time" magazine. went after regional newspapers. what is left of newsprint is basically online some print but major companies. if this thing is what we hear it is and nextsar is not going to heavy debt with private equity partner, and five billion dollar deal, six billion dollar deal, you have got problems. shows you our business is in desperate shape. liz: no, we're fine. let's whistle around the

graveyard. >> it is what it is right? liz: the fox brand is rock solid. >> i don't mean, i'm not making a comment about fox. i'm making a comment about our business as a whole. liz: secular decline in the media world. >> again weaker entrants go first. newsprint, news magazines. liz: gotcha. >> you know? stuff like you know, are you saying a wrap? >> yes because you're not wearing an earpiece. they're making me go -- >> that's right. they can't wrap me. [laughter] liz: closing bell five minutes away. look at one last look at arm. it is up 27% in these last few minutes of trade. it debuted on the nasdaq at 51-dollar per share. right now it is at $65.40 giving it a very, very big valuation, higher certainly than 61 approximately dollars. we were the first to talk to arm ceo rene haas after today's

trading it final hour. we pressed him on building chip architecture for artificial intelligence. he was optimistic. here is what he said? >> the way to think about it quantity is our friend so the more a.i. applications out there need more cpus. the way to think about it, applications or devices that didn't have a cpu may need one to run a.i. devices that had a few cpus will need more. those with a lot will need even more. liz: the thing is skyrocketing. it is up 27%. we'll keep the bug up here to show you. that is what a live interview on "the claman countdown" can do. le's talk about this, the spread on the yield between the three month t-bill and 10-year yield it has narrowed slightly but remains inverted for the 212th day in a row. what does that mean? typically when the yield curve inverts, shorter dated treasurys pay out more than a longer dated

ones and that is a signal that recession is coming but where is it? thethe man who pioneered used is a recession indicator tool, he is ready to give us a date when the recession is coming. duke professor campbell harvey is here. where do you see it, campbell. >> we need to be careful, 212 days. i look at it on a monthly basis, not a daily basis and this inversion is not even at the average length. so the average length is more like 13 months. so what it is pointing to is a recession in 2024. i know 2023 might be a little surprising in terms of the robust gdp growth but that is purely driven by consumer spending, money saved up during covid, stimulus and that's run out. now the credit cards are being depleted consumption will not

save the economy in 2024. liz: i'm hearing you say it has to go longer around 13 months, if you're gauging the last time this happened before we see that kind of recessionary move? >> that's correct and that takes us into 2024. and it kind of makes sense as i said with consumption expenditures cratering about then. liz: last time you were on the show though professor, you said that the fed should have stopped raising interest rates this past january. clearly they did not and while september, the weak, next week we have a meeting with the federal open market committee, widely expected to leave rates unchanged. november sees 30, 32% chance we will get another quarter of a percent rate hike. ecb hiked rates today, 10th time in a row. we got hotter inflation numbers. why don't you see, or do you

continue to see the fed tightening and what kind of damage could that do? >> so it is a catastrophic error if they raise rates again and the narrative is false. 3.7% inflation that we got it's not 3.7%. so if you look at the inflation number a third of that inflation is driven by shelter and 70% of that inflation print is shelter. so shelter is running at 7.3% and that doesn't make any sense. it is disconnected from the actual housing prices and rental costs. if you take shelter out inflation is running at 1.1%. if you put, let's say one or 2% inflation in for shelter it is running at 1.5%. so it is not 3.7. it is 1.5 and it's because the, the bls, when they construct

inflation they use something called owners equivalent rent and it is very smooth. the numbers today are reflecting what happened two years ago. liz: okay. >> so i think we need to realistically look at the inflation rate. it is not 3.7. it is below the fed's target at two, to increase rates doesn't make any sense. it will push us potentially into a hard landing and nobody want as hard landing. >> i know a lot of people who would agree with you but i know the fed is concerned making an error, stopping too early, cap bell harvey, thank you very much. [closebell rings] arm closing up 24% from its opening day debut. that is smash hit out of the ballpark. we'll see what it does tomorrow. ♪. larry: hello, folks, welcome to "kudlow," i'm larry kudlow. house speaker kevin mccarthy has declared an impeachm