david: we asked when was the republican party created? 1810, thirty eight, twenty two, fifty four. what do you think? >> 1838, number 3. david: i would say 1854. the answer is 1854. lincoln was relatively newcomer to a relatively new party. mark tepper, happy birthday, joining us for the our. just over 9 hours away from the second republican debate, stuart varney, moderating at 9:00 pm eastern time. we've got coverage until the debate. don't want to miss it. coast-to-coast starts now. neil: we are following a lot,

he's do out of their. that leads to corruption charges, hundreds of dollars of cash and gold bars. mercedes convertible, you name it, they are hit with it. the senator just might d speaking afterwards and does plan to run for reelection next year. the bottom of your screen tells it all. we were positive for a while. this has to do with new indications of government shutdown is all but a likelihood right now, one deal they were cobbling together seems to be falling apart. we will get into the details of that but all of this the backdrop for the big debate tonight on fox business. madison alworth has laid the groundwork at the reagan library. >> reporter: good afternoon.

we are 6 hours away from the second gop primary debate. the stage a little smaller than a month ago in milwaukee. one candidate who was there, asa hutchinson, not qualifying for the debate. the 7 candidates will be on stage will make their case in the library on why they are the best man or woman to take on president biden in 2,024. when it comes to the current president voters are voicing their concern over his age, economic record and say they are concerned the direction the country is headed. that is what polls show. republicans say this creates a window of opportunity and the time for alternative is running out. >> they don't want him to run. they are seeing these numbers and are worried, the american people are not happy. valid access is an issue. a lot of primary states you can't get on the ballot past november. i don't think biden is going to go anywhere. >> candidate setting the stage

before hitting the stage. tim scott calling out president biden's. on the border saying his dereliction of duty will affect the nation for years to come. the immigration crisis expected to be a big focus tonight. getting attention from other candidates as well. desantis going after the front runner, donald trump, for his job on the border. >> he owes it to the voters to defend his record, articulate what he would do differently. he is running in 2,024 on a lot of the same promises he ran on in 2016 and didn't deliver on. >> reporter: it has been a month since we heard from these candidates and it's an opportunity for them to address the american public at each other and make themselves stand out. as we get closer to january the field narrows. for those 7, it's an important night to stand out and stick around.

neil: let's go to gop strategist, democratic campaign strategist, to you first as republican strategist looking at these candidates gripping one after another in this go around. the attention will focus on ron desantis, he's the center of attention. so is nikki haley. >> i think i'll candidates should be focused on the fact the president biden can't be elected to another four years in the white house. the notion you try to go around donald trump and say we want to keep america great and the person that brought back make america great is not the person to do it is not going to work. if you focus on that economy and the fact you've got $5.5 trillion in savings that was eviscerated by the economy, focus on the fact most americans are watching electric bills go through the roof because of energy policies put

in place by the biden administration, that's the strategy, trying to play monkey in the middle. neil: they will make president biden the subject of all that has gone wrong in this country, that's with the opposition party does and we can expect that but these are tough times even within your own party, there's been talk, is biden the best we can do. do you think in late stages here he is going to be your party's nominee when all is said and done? >> he will be the party nominee. the base of support has coalesced around the president, facing no serious challenger from the ranks. you see democrats wanting to ham and ha when ray reality it's difficult to beat an incumbent president. that's with the biden/harris team did by 7 million more votes.

the democratic party is united behind incumbent president biden. i think you will see a lot of attacks against president biden tonight on his record but all these candidates need to get through the elephant not in the real witches donald trump to even have that chance to take on president biden in november. there's 109 days left until the iowa caucuses, that's a political eternity but a short amount of time to flip the script and take out a guy who's leading the pack by 50 points in national polls. neil: is still early to your point and while it is difficult to take out an incumbent president as has been done in recent history with george hw bush in 1992 and the same with jimmy carter in 1980. it can be done and usually a backdrop for that is an economy falling apart and it is premature to say that is going on now, but republicans have

been seizing on inflation picking up steam, getting worse, and americans comfort level with the economy is getting worrisome. what do you make of that backdrop? >> even jimmy carter in the end realizes they tried to cut down on spending. the biden admin us ration has gone pedal to the metal and continuing to spend the hard earned dollars of the american people. we have $1 trillion to the deficit, in a matter of a month. so if you look at those economic numbers it is dire for the biden economy and that's before you get to the chaos on the southern border which is turning every town into a border town and every single border policy put in place by his predecessor. i would agree historically speaking it is almost impossible to get past trump particularly when you compared to obama and hillary clinton.

obama was down single digit or leading the iowa polls. no one on the republican side is that close. the issue must be the failure of the biden policies. a presidency whose sole job was to undermine everything donald trump did. to help keep america great and that has to be the focus. that's what the american people are feeling and time to remind them, that example after example after example. neil: i don't mean to play the same game, reinstating fiscal discipline, like me giving advice. i will say the one area that seems to stick is the migrant situation. the rampant crime and other issues because of it.

that's not entirely fair but certainly wobbled a lot of big blue cities and bastions that hereto for were fine with the way things were going. that could be turning. the administration turned a blind eye to those concerns and democratic officials in those cities and states urging help. that's where he seems particularly vulnerable. >> we talked about this, democrats often get lost in statistics when talking about murder rates in many cities when you talk about violent rates dropping in many cities and if that doesn't square with what people feel in their own homes or they see a situation at the border, that is problematic and i think we need, as the it ministrations that along we need congress to act, the president is hamstrung with current immigration laws. we need to surge those resources. it is a crisis at the border and has been a crisis, the last

time they have comprehensive immigration reform, when ronald reagan was president and we see the debate in his library, 40 years ago. congress needs to act, the biden administration has worked every year to increase funding, we are searching 800 active-duty troops to the border to deal with this crisis, congress needs to act. >> it falls on the president, fairly or not. at the candidates on the stage tonight, what who do you think is going to be the target? >> we assumed it was going to be incumbent ron desantis because of the fact he had the largest chunk of the available orders, and in some ways those numbers, it is a jump ball.

how nikki haley, and it is going to be more of a cross fighter. it's the opportunity for someone to step into that void to had on those issues, and the hard truth is the numbers and sheer are quite real the fear is because of the fact the biden admin station dismantled the trump your immigration policies. they went to court to get rid of title 42 and they sued texas for the fact they put up the border, and arizona for trying to put up a shipping container. they are not trying to flood the zone to stop a crisis, they are in many ways trying to handle the crisis to aid in the flow of migrants when most americans want to end it. that's the focal point. to focus on that, will receive a service and if trump is not president that is the opportunity to gain it. neil: last time they talked to

one another they were robbed of that opportunity but we will see how that goes. to brian brenberg, they've got him, skinny, fit anchor at a diner in iowa. bad central casting. you're getting a mode of iowans. >> reporter: i love to beat that i'm taking a little bit of a break. in iowa talking to voters, mike was born in iowa, talking about 24, she -- what are you looking at, what are you looking for when it comes to that? >> i want to find somebody who is honest. hard to find a politician these days, integrity is my biggest trade and if i can find

somebody who will be honest, >> to the economy, border, crime, which of those issues, to show they have integrity, truthful and can get something done? >> the economy, so many factors. i don't know if anybody communicated something they can actually get done in a divided congress. what can you do both sides can agree to get to get something done? >> reporter: is somebody watching his name is in the race, may be that person could show me something and i could get on board with it? >> a lot of people, not really a fan of donald trump because while he has done. not concerned about biden's age. wells is going to step up?

>> reporter: somebody's got a chance tonight. >> i haven't studied their candidacy enough, what nikki haley says, tim scott, he has a couple things he throws out. >> reporter: it is funny to give candidate names. renée behind you, she has some thoughts on this. mike is just looking for possibilities. >> i would love for gavin newsom, he seems like the best candidate on the democrat side, has some good ideas. >> reporter: ron desantis coming up here, that would be awesome. that is a win for this segment. >> it will be super too. >> reporter: thank you for your time. that is it, looking for someone who tell the truth, can get

things done, has an open mind, that's the case for a lot of iowa voters. all day and tomorrow, a lot of dimer time ahead of him. neil: renée wasn't buying it. great job. that would be what my wife would do. a lot more coming up. guess who we have with us. neil kashkari is minneapolis fed president, member of the federal reserve and he has been talking about the fed and whether they embraced interest rates, he is sounding increasingly hawkish. after this. ♪

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neil: a quick peek outside manhattan federal court where we could see robert menendez and his like pleading not guilty to corruption charges, accused of accepting hundred of thousands in cash. it is distinctly possible senator menendez will say he will not only fight this but

also run for reelection despite all this even though a good many of his democratic colleagues are saying it is time to go. we are watching that and this ongoing strike, the president of the united states picketing with those striking. about of people say he put the thumb on the scale since he was going to talk to admin a straight and officials to serve as arbitrators if you will, the auto companies seem to reject that as result of the president's statement. jeff flock in michigan. >> reporter: don't know how big a film he's got but there you go. some people think this is the picket line outside the gm parts facility where the president visited yesterday. didn't stay long and he did not say what specific demands he supports that the autoworkers are asking for but he did say he supports them and had a union on. listen.

>> president biden: saved the automobile industry. made a lot of sacrifices. companies were in trouble but now they are doing incredibly well and guess what. we should be doing incredibly well too. >> reporter: donald trump is coming to michigan here today, suspect it will be a different scene. he is going to a nonunion parts manufacturing facility where he talked to some union workers. we talked to one union worker, the president of the uaw, sean fain, says he has no intention of meeting with donald trump. >> i see no point because i don't think the man has any bit

of care about what our workers stand for in the working-class sale -- he served a billionaire class and that is what is wrong with this country. >> reporter: eyeballs on this debate, one of the players, senator tim scott of south carolina is the subject of a uaw complaint with the national labor relations board. ronald reagan at a campaign stop, said words to the effect if you go on strike you get fired, simple thing. that's against the law. you can't threaten workers to be fired if they choose to strike. the uaw said employees, campaign workers, he threatening them. don't know where that will go but these days, who knows? neil: a very big difference if they are not allowed to go on strike, considered vital personnel who couldn't go on strike. only you and i can remember that.

>> reporter: you and i could go on strike. neil: no one would notice. we rant and rave at a diner but that's the extent of it. you are the best, always enjoy talking to you. you might remember former detroit police chief, lots to talk about because he is entertaining a run for the united states senate. michigan is motor state. wanted to get james's views on how he feels about that. on the strike, the president involving himself in it. what did you think of that? >> got to tell you, good seeing you. haven't seen you in a while but this thing with biden was a political stunt. he spent 85 seconds saying i am with you, you deserve to get more money. what he failed to say is this

ev mandate is going to decimate the workforce and automobile industry. he didn't talk about that. let's face it. in order for them to do ev production, that is going to cut into the money they were going to pay these workers. he spent 85 seconds and disappeared. disappointed to hear the uaw president dismissive of trump. let's just say this. biden could care less about workers and one of your prior guests was talking about he wants politicians who are honest, who are truthful, who have integrity. that is not integrity. he spent 85 seconds just to make a show. has he gone to ohio to check on the disaster in ohio, has he gone to the epicenter of the border with enemy combatants, cartels coming into the country? he goes out there and he claims

to be the number one president for the union. when i got out of high school, my first job was working in a line of crisis. i was in the uaw. i respect the work those men and women do. police chief, when i was governor, i used to visit the plant. those people are my friends. those people work hard and deserve the pay. neil: a few be, senator, you're trying to take down debbie stab i know --stabenow. she marked with the strikers. would you as a michigan senator do the same if this were dragging on and this was happening when you were senator? >> i would do more. i would listen to all these democrats who show up wearing the garb, i am with you, they

fall short of telling the truth. this mandate is going to kill jobs. neil: i want your reaction to the crime surge particularly late last night in philadelphia, looters creating havoc. i was going to replay alexandria ocasio cortez, earlier strikes we have seen on retail establishments. looked like they were going after electronic equipment. having said that what do you make of this and how you would change things if you were a united states senator. >> like i did when i was police chief in detroit, prime example of what was done right. detroit was the only major cities that didn't burn, no looting and a couple upticks in activity.

and this thing in philly happened, and an officer involved shooting situation. they are recharging, not satisfied with the outcome. they got young people to stop looting, well over 100, any of them got away. what i am seeing and i will tell you, ever since 2,020 if you look at the cities anytime there's an issue, now, look at what is going on in california. the governor of california who wants to be president of the united states has done very little, not lipservice, nothing, nothing is being done. sadly, this is going to

continue unless there are real consequences and we start holding these woke prosecutors accountable. that is the only way things are going to change. neil: sounds like you are running for the senate. >> i tell you, i will tell you this. i am so close, so close. you know what? we need to go back on neil. neil: not going to do more right now. you are just teasing me. it is always good seeing you. i'm sure a lot of people will be interested in your final choice. james craig, police chief considering a run for the united states senate and the selloff on the corner of wall and broad picking of considerable skin, 183 points, a botched attempt to avoid a government shutdown, we get the green on the markets. his view on these developments. that's here in the flesh.

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>> welcome back to coast-to-coast. the house and senate talking past each other as the senate has a bipartisan stopgap bill to avert a shutdown for 45 days in dade ukraine. 77 senators supported the package last night on a test vote, house conservatives dismissed the bill. >> just means they are wrong, 7 senators are wrong. >> 77 senators have been wrong for a long time. just because they come to some silly agreement over their changes nothing about our country. doesn't mean they are right, they are just week. >> reporter: kevin mccarthy said he would not consider the senate bill. mccarthy says he will craft his own plan to fund the government and bolster the border. even mccarthy's vote counters

are not certain moderate gop members believe the house could pass an interim bill they prepped with wide bipartisan support. the question is whether the speaker is beholden to the right. >> we should never let them push us around like this. they have no alternative plan. who do they want as speaker? we have a good bill and i hope that will be a fallback for a landing spot for people. >> reporter: senate minority leader mitch mcconnell argued a shutdown does nothing but harm the gop. >> take the standard approach, fund the government for six weeks at the current rate of operations or show the government down. in exchange for 0 meaningful progress on policy. >> reporter: objections from the right could delay passage

of the senate bill until saturday and it is unclear what can pass the house. wednesday, congress already missed the sun by deadline and a shutdown is all but guaranteed. neil: we know what effect this has on the stock market and it could affect your home hunting if you're interested in doing that. so much real estate brilliance, rates have been backing up. the thought of the covenant shutting down has not helped the situation any. this is getting very complicated. >> thanks for having me. it is. interest rates now are the main driver for the real estate market and even though the total value is 49% higher than before the pandemic, we are at a standstill. it's an interesting market because sellers don't want to sell because they are locked into a great interest rate and

want to trade that up and buyers are very hesitant because they don't want to pay 7% interest. interest rates will go back down next year and that will change the market. neil: we are back down to levels or up to levels, we last saw in november, december 2000 during the bush/gore recount, back to those levels. is this where we settled? could rates go higher? >> i think rates will go higher, things will get worse before they get better. a lot of sellers are going to continue to be very hesitant to put their properties on the market. part of what is happening, those sellers are not putting properties in the market, builders are entering the market, a lot of new construction is the catalyst for the real estate market which is driving the fact that florida, the news came in is

the second most valued real estate in the nation surpassing new york. california remains on top. the sunshine state, real estate properties stored by $160 billion in one year from the beginning. neil: we will see if that continues. thank you very much. neil kashkari , very influential member of the fed, after this.

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name on. good to see you again. i will let it go. let me ask you. you've been talking about the fed not being done. >> we raised interest rates by 5.25%. i would have thought that would slam the brakes on the economy but the economy has proven resilient, john market remain strong, that's good news, consumers continue to spend. that makes me wonder have we done enough to bring inflation all the way back. i have penciled in my own forecast, one more rate increases this fall and we sit there while inflation -- neil: likely 1/4 point. >> we will have to see the data but i'm open to the possibility the economy is more resilient than we realize and we might go

higher than that. neil: do you factor in or should the fed factor in preemptive strikes, the generous labor packages including the united auto workers which could call for a minimum of 20% or more, pretty big payout. >> a couple things. american workers the last 30 or 40 years have seen their shared pocket declining. probably want to see american workers enjoy higher wages in a way that is consistent with 2% inflation. i don't think any individual negotiations for the country as a whole -- neil: you have the teamsters deal with ups, that's a hard double digit one. pilots of american united looking at 35% to 40%. that is a set of the population to 2%.

neil: in the 1970s, union contract had cost of living adjustments. that's a mechanism for inflation to continue. as inflation went down, cost-of-living adjustments, i'm interested, are they being added back. the union negotiators thinking inflation is high or like wall street do they think inflation will continue to fall, it will continue to fall. neil: the type of environment to resuscitate that bringing it to 0. >> if you look at that, the big structural factor, agent of the population, productivity trends, once we get through this transition period. back in 2017-18.

neil: too soon for the market talk talk about interest rates? >> the best case, if we hold policy fixed, inflation is tighter and tighter. why want to continue the policy continues to fall? that is the best argument for the second half of next year. neil: market rates stay high, after all that other stuff. we don't see that. >> a lot goes into 10 year market rates. it is the neutral real rate. of the 20 you haven't seen the impact with all that many, we realize we are in a depression, we get that but still retail

sales are stubbornly stronger. the fed doesn't embrace that. the whole point is to slow things down. >> inflation has fallen quickly. a lot of that falling -- neil: can it be stopped? >> it slowed down from supply chains. those are -- neil: mortgage rates around 7. 5%. you have to get used to that, depends on your age, i understand. >> we need to get inflation back to 2%. i'm confident we will do that i don't know if we will be done right here. neil: do you worry when the federal government spends money the weather a democratic president republican president, had this president not spent so much. they had to to get the economy as it may.

every time you see that, he made the job. >> these are inputs into the economic model. neil: who is better for your input? president biden? >> i believe that to you. neil: they both spend a lot, don't they? >> i believe that the whatever congress passes, feeding to our policy. neil: it is a day of reckoning over these deficits. eventually, there will be a period everything hits the fan. >> one of the things in other countries that spent too much money, that is why you have an independent central bank, we do what we need to do to bring inflation down. neil: with that independence.

>> advanced economies are doing well for the last several decades. that is why we have strong bipartisan support. neil: do you think rates a year from now will be higher? >> i put in my essay i published a couple days ago a 60% chance of a soft landing, one more hike. 40% chance to be higher from there. that's my best estimate. hard to pick one. neil: apparently you did not. always good seeing you. the minneapolis fed president and one of the key voting members as they vote, we shall see. more after this. ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home...

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neil: you heard from an influential member of the federal reserve board there's a 60% chance we still have a soft landing but we have higher rates than they are right now. the national retail federation's ceo, they will get pinched a little more depending on how much more, looking in terms of rate hikes. what do you think? >> nice to see you. i did listen to the

conversation with the other neil. neil: tell me about it. the fed takes the actions of policymakers and find a way to work through that, retailers are taking the current environment and will take the future environment and continue to find ways to deliver value, find the right strategies to make sure products are on the shelves to serve customers needs, retailers continue to work through the environment, it's a challenging and unpredictable one but maybe no more so than we have seen through covid and shutdowns and other challenges. a lot we don't though yet but consumers still finding solutions. neil: they are very crafty. the one thing i do notice is every time people dismiss the consumer, not across the board, we are seeing signs among some. there are hiccups there.

play out the next few months through the holiday season. >> consumers have been the story of the economy continued to power the economy forward, going on 34, 35 months of retail sales growth led by consumer engagement. a lot has been made about the savings on the sidelines, pandemic savings, if you look at the only thing we can measure the last 20 years, the san francisco fed looks at the combination of checking and savings balances my $3 trillion higher than it was. before the pandemic, lots of excess savings but consumers, and discretionary goods and some categories, luxury goods.

the one thing we know for sure is families always prioritize their needs over their wants, we had a blockbuster back-to-school season, highest on record. that is why we think things bode well for the holiday season. it is early to tell. we make that announcement in another month or five weeks. we will see how they behave. neil: target is changing -- posing some stores because of crime issues. in the new york metropolitan area. they locked up everything they have on shelves. what impact is that having. >> it's a financial tragedy, national retail security survey came out yesterday measuring sales losses due to theft and shrinkage, up 20% from a year

prior. substantial growth but the numbers are really proxies for in many cases the tragedies playing out. the loss of jobs, employee benefits on the tax base and retailers have done everything imaginable for security, adjusted their hours, tried to protect their goods, they want to protect employees and customers. anything short of closing the store, a retailer wants to do to serve those customers. at the last resort to close stores but we see from our survey and the announcement you saw yesterday and previous weeks and months a high correlation, some of those markets are very challenging and to operate successfully. neil: a good safety issue. good seeing you again. one hundred 54 points, more

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neil: we expected him a while ago, bob menendez pled not guilty to charges against him. hundreds of thousands in cash and all that other stuff. he has been expected. so will brian brenberg and "the big money show" folks. brian: thanks very much. welcome to a special edition of "the big money show" live from

iowa. br'm