with the right answer. ashley: unless i'm missing something, atlanta, number 2. stuart: interesting guess. >> number 2, atlanta. stuart: both of you know that i got this right by saying atlanta before you guys did but what constitutes a body of water. a lake? se, and ocean, a big river? what constitutes -- it is a big country. >> i would protest but i got it right. we when cleveland is near which? is that a river? philadelphia, the seashore, atlanta is near nothing. ashley: lake erie. stuart: you have lived up there. ashley: i have lived everywhere. of the one thanks for being on the show. "varney and company" is just about done. and two seconds it is coast-to-coast now.

adam: were just talking about water. we are underwater if you are looking at the dow jones industrials on the year, an average of 15% is now technically underwater. less now than it was at the start of the year. with weighing on investors is that interest rates go up, up, up some more. we are looking at that with the 10-year not far from 4. 8%. i want you to consider that because as recently as april, 3 and one quarter 3 and one 12:45%, overs down, more than a year ago the fed was starting its interest rate hikes, we were essentially at or near 0 with all those rates, not so much the 10-year but that was then, this is now, higher interest rates are hitting virtually all the sectors in the market today including what

we are seeing going on with technology. the fed has no control, not that far from a 30 year, closing at 5%. one of the interesting things i should point out, if you commit your money for 2 months you get 5% on your money there. if you committed right now for 6 months, a similar amount, 5.5%, 3 month, 5.51%, you see what this means, guaranteed money from uncle sam backed by the full faith and credit of uncle sam, something to explore the to roiling the markets today, this idea of inflation, the market is giving you the impression it is sticking. we have a lot more later in the show. we will keep you posted constantly showing these numbers and what is moving or not moving in these markets. in the meantime the move on capitol hill to unseat the speaker, something we haven't seen in the better part of a

century, chad pogrom on what's going on in this could be roiling markets. >> kevin mccarthy has facing the biggest challenge of his speakership because matt gaetz, the republican is going to the floor this hour and is going to make this motion to vacate the chair, call for a new speaker vote live. a vote related to that won't happen until 2:00 our. speaker mccarthy is confident he will survive. he decided to push this issue today. >> rip the band-aid off here or what? >> why not? matt has planned this all along, didn't matter what transpired, whether we were in shutdown or not. >> mccarthy said he was confident he would survive today's vote of no-confidence and b speaker tonight. one gop member tells fox the outcome is not preordained. it's about the mouth. mccarthy says if he loses the

votes of 5 gop members he's out and most democrats are not going to bail out kevin mccarthy. years democratic leader hakeem jeffries. >> we encourage our republican colleagues who claim to be more traditional, to break from the extremists end the chaos, end dysfunction, end the extremism. we are ready, willing, and able to work together with our republican colleagues but it is on them to join us. >> jarrett golden is a moderate but he says he will not vote to help the speaker, democrats are trying to figure out how to vote. some already know. >> there are serious trust issues. our job is not to elect republican speakers but democratic speakers. >> we are here with the speaker of the house, trying to get him to stop. mr. speaker?

kevin mccarthy not taking our questions, just stepped onto the floor to open the floor, he sometimes has stopped with the cameras when coming out. here's what is going to happen. matt gaetz this hours going to make alive his resolution. when they come back at 2:00 there will be a motion to table or kill matt gaetz's motion, this is a secondary motion that will be made by a mccarthy ally. the effort is to try to euthanize what matt gaetz is doing to the speaker. if the motion to table what matt gaetz is doing carries than it is over, matt gaetz is lost. he says he will be back but they are done but this is the dangerous part for kevin mccarthy. if for some reason that secondary motion to table fails, then they go back and vote on kevin mccarthy, whether or not the chair is vacant, to declare whether there is a vacancy in the speakership, that motion will probably fail and then there's trouble, if that is adopted then we go

immediately to vote after vote after vote like we did in january to elect a speaker of the house, the house will not have a speaker and by rule they have to keep voting until they get a speaker of the house. it took 5 days and 15 rounds back in january. the longest speakers race since 1859. back to you. ashley: let's say every democrat votes for hakeem jeffries or whatever. the speaker can afford to lose only 5 votes. >> that's exactly what he said in this is where we get into some very complex parliamentary algebra and it is hard to determine what's going to happen because you could have democrats not vote at all or show up and vote present, that fluctuates the total vote have any members or casting ballots, you don't know what the magic number is for the resolution to be adopted or defeated or

tables. that's why it's so hard to figure out and why it's dangerous for kevin mccarthy. neil: you will update us as warranted. congressman chip roy of texas sitting on the house judiciary committee, very important player. where are you on this? >> good afternoon. i'm not in favor of the motion to vacate but let me be clear, things need to change. my colleagues who are raising this, some accuse them of being show horses or things like that. we talked about the rampant inflation, the current state of affairs. right now what we are talking about, a little girl is getting sex trafficked in texas, the borders are open. american citizens are in danger. absolute devastating state of affairs along the border and we are talking about what have we done so far? $4 trillion increase in the

debt ceiling, just a 45 extension of the status quo, some of my colleagues on the other side of the building in the senate are saying we need $80 billion for ukraine while our border is on fire. i don't need we need to continue the status quo but don't think we should be pulling the coach out in the fourth quarter. kevin said he wants to carry this to run have a fight to get what we need done on the border. that we need to hold ukraine in check, to reflect this conference and get spending down and we should try to follow through but we will see what happens over the next couple of hours. neil: of the extension, shortly before thanksgiving, there is no funding of the border in this extension, nor for ukraine if the speaker, if he stays speaker puts ukraine back in the mix. what you say that is it, time is up, goodbye?

>> we've got to deal with the border crisis, not one dollar for ukraine, don't want to go down that road, let's secure the border of the united states, do what we need to do to move appropriation bill to limit spending, every person watching this right now is watching the markets roiling, watching inflation go up, the cost of housing, cost of energy, cost of electricity, cost of cars, cost of food, driving, people's on ability to end their lives. we cut government spending, moving forward to do our core job of securing the border in securing the country, then you can have a special part conversation about ukraine when they want to come forward and show us what they are going to do but under no circumstances should we be saying let's give money to ukraine but can't scare our own border and get our own house in order. that's what we need to do. i'm sticking with the team through the fourth quarter but it is the fourth quarter, it is game time and we need to get the job done for the american people. my people in texas are getting

crushed with open borders. enough. we got to fix it. neil: a lot of questions whether this is personal or a grudge by matt gaetz for his colleague. the you think it is? >> a lot of conversations in the conference, this has more to do with a group of my colleagues who are frustrated with the status quo. i read a laundry list of likely outcomes when the establishment get gets its way, continued increased spending, subtle mental spending bill, the debt ceiling caps, continued open borders, extent to which we fund ukraine with lack of accountability for mayorkas and biden. people are frustrated and want change. neil: how much do you agree in your view with matt gaetz to share the deal that the speaker has to vacate? >> there's going to be a block of a number that i will not project yet in the single digits but i don't know that

would vote to vacate today but there's a bigger number. lauren: 1 you say there are 5 or more? >> 5 or more and a much bigger number than that are frustrated with the state of affairs. lauren: 20 i'm sure you realize the import of what you just said, choosing your words very carefully, 5 or more assuming no democrat votes for the speaker, that could change. if he is out of there today. >> we will see how the vote plays out the next couple hours, got to stay focused on leading this country forward, we have a major important issue, border, spending, ukraine, getting our house in order and i want to be clear, we get no help from democrats, they want to keep driving us into the ditch spending money we don't have, leaving a borders wide open, giving money to ukraine, we've got to come together as a republic and party to stand against that, not easy to do, the sausage getting made is little ugly sometimes but let's break some glass, get busy and continue to move forward. lauren: 20 would you vote to vacate as things stand right now?

>> i'm not going to vote to vacate on the first round of votes today and i think we need to keep going through and give the coach the time to finish the plays in the fourth quarter, we will see what happens today and get this all put back together again. >> thank you very much for that, following these fast-moving developers on capitol hill. following another development that includes donald trump, day 2 of the civil trial going on in lower manhattan, the latest on that moving forward. what have we learned today? >> there was a brief recess moments ago, court has resumed donald trump spoke for a second time today again defending the valuation of his properties and calling this and higher case a scam saying it should be dismissed but the morning session started just after 10 a.m. the judge started by explaining an appellate court decision from back in june regarding the

statute of limitations, essentially what he explained that is the attorney general's office will continue questioning a man by the name of donald bender, donald trump's old accountant, they have been discussing a lot of transactions and financial statements from back in 2011, the judge will allow that to continue if and only if the state connects it to crimes, alleged crimes that happened more recently after 2014 or in some cases after 2016. donald trump spoke for the second time today as he entered the courtroom, he was again very critical of new york attorney general letitia james. listen here. >> this case should be dismissed. this is not a case. she should probably be dismissed also because she is terrible and grossly incompetent. and they out to get on to violent crime in solving the problems of new york city and new york state. >> attorney general james

accuses trump of falsely inflating his net worth and deceiving banks by fraudulently overvaluing his properties. sheep out of video last night saying she fundamentally disagrees with trump's interpretation of the statute of limitations in this case. this is a no jury trial which means the judge has full discretion in deciding trump's punishment, trump's team put out a statement that they never had the option of a jury trial. he also defended again the valuation of his properties not only just moments ago but on truth social posting in part, quote, the judge has been given false and grossly misleading information about my net worth such as mar-a-lago being worth $18 million when in fact the number would be much closer to $1.5 billion. today's proceedings are scheduled to end at about 4:30 where we expect a lunch break coming up at the top of the hour. the afternoon sessions begins at 2:15. yesterday we are donald trump

speak four times, we've seen him speak two times. we will see what else he has today is the court proceedings continue. stuart: thank you for that. the former federal prosecutor, this concerns the nonjury thing. what is the policy in a case like this? others said it is the trump's team's fault for skewing the idea. i don't know what the reality is. do you know? >> the statute allows for a jury trial, the judge made statements indicating neither side requested a jury which would seem to indicate the defense had not put in that request because it is a defended's right to a jury trial so it is unclear why that strategic decision was made but it is a tactical decision, juries and new york seem unfavorable to trump so that could have been the far process, this judge is unavailable to trump, the

process of a regrettable decision but does seem to have been an affirmative decision by the defense based on what i have seen. neil: a trump lawyer says that's not the case, was not a box to check off, not an option, is that misrepresenting that? >> there are certain types of cases required to be heard by a judge trial and my understanding is the statute does not require that it only be heard by a judge and would have been an option to pursue a jury trial, could have been some other technicalities that led to this outcome but from what i have seen it seems to have been a decision that was made strategically but at this point the decision is final, there's no option to select a jury moving ahead. the judge will determine the outcome of this case. neil: lies with the judge and one of the things that has come up is who are you, to tell us about real estate, something we've devoted our lives to are

the president would say his entire life to. he knows a thing or two about it, his lawyers saying trump properties are mona lisa properties, that's not fraud, that's real estate, in other words there is a brand and value attached to real estate that goes beyond what you might see on popular websites. that's their argument, these are not businesses grading valuations of properties that donald trump would know quite well i did not do anything toward it. >> i think there is decent argument to be had about the subjective evaluation of the property and you have to remember that prosecutors decided not to move forward with any fraud charges against trump on the criminal side for the same filing so the interpretation of fraudulent filings and this statute is very broad and i do believe could be open for debate, however when the judge is the finder of fact and made a

decision regarding those valuations and determined them to be fraudulent, that's the decision of the trial court and it could be rehashed on appeals, what the judge mentioned again today but for all intents and purposes that has been conclusively determined here. whether it is fair or not the appeals court will have to wait on that. neil: or something to donald trump, this is a kangaroo court, already loaded from their. are slapped on a punishment on properties, they will be nullified and can't do business in this state and this is all about that, his lifeblood and earnings in the state of new york and it would take a herculean task for the judge to do one hundred 80 and say there's nothing here. does he have a point? >> i don't think the judge will reverse his own findings. the point of the defense is

preserve the record for appeal. the appellate court could see things different, there are significant questions about the fact there's been no complaints from parties or lenders or actual loss of earnings or profits from these transactions. neil: you are the lawyer, i am not, but that is not germane. moving hard to an injured party that may not be injured at all strikes me as odd but that is not what is at stake, seems kind of wacky. neil: that's not germane to a finding that there were fraudulent filings whether there is loss of income. practically speaking it is quite mitigating, without doing fraudulent or corrupt business in the state of new york which is the purpose of the statute, you have to wonder whether this was the intention, to go after someone who was a political opponent, somebody letitia james said she wanted to to go

after. all of those play into the analysis but under the statute, you don't need to show harm to get an adverse finding against you. filing what the factfinder determines to be fraudulent. very broad definition under the statute, something prosecutors thought they could not prove commonly against trump. and o'connell court. neil: to imagine. neil: the judge's rolling detailed why he felt they were fraudulent representations. the argument regarding the brand is significant, could increase valuation but his decision at this stage is the final decision. adam: you very much. fast-moving developments, the dow down 270 points. that might seem convoluted.

the number on the right, that's a rate of a 10 year treasury, closing in 4.8%, at a 17 year high and that is the basis for mortgage rates, the basis for 15 year jumbo loans and the basis for so much you do on an everyday basis, and that's what's happening right now. neil: ♪ i need the dollar dollar, that is what i need

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and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. neil: stocks down, rates up. that's the conundrum. because rates are so far up and we've got more indications the economy is doing well, adult report that a number of jobs far higher than most were betting on, 9.61 million americans in that position, the $8.8 million americans looking at available job openings.

whether this proves the case and the friday employment report, add up the good news bad news backing up interest rates and the federal reserve has little control, the 10 year attached so many popular rates going up, up, and away. 16, 17 years. higher rates are sticking and getting stickier and no matter what the fed does, that is the reality. >> i think everybody understands or hopes that the bond markets are controlling the equity markets, that setting the levels, setting all the markets -- neil: sending a message to the fed. >> it is very -- forward-looking. it is certainly sending a

message this is what we were expecting. neil: the fed is going to happen. >> it is what we think is going to happen in the future. the bond market, the stock market does, it is very much what we think the fed will do and what will happen in the next six months or so. the one good thing at least when looking at these rates, talked about the inversion, at least the recent rally, the yield going up, on the longer end. we are seeing less of a steepening which may be an indication of less likelihood of recession. neil: i could commit my money for six months, 5.5% or whatever it is.

and not dealing with this. >> a lot of people are in that position and a lot of clients would rather use short-term whether you are looking at cd your short-term etf, even 4% on a two year, the prices don't move as much as you can get that yield and avoid all the chaos of the past 5 years. and so if you are someone who wants to rebalance your portfolio and monitor that much work frequently and taking that 5% is an option. if you want to forget it and rebalance in a year or reassess, not the best option.

because the stock market is coming down, more fairly valued this may not be the winning but for 12 to 18 months out. adam: you have a dow that is underwater and a ways to go. there is a feeling here we protect the gains that we have if you still have them. don't want to overstate this but client to have done well with technology, when they first got hit and came back, getting clobbered. >> i like long-term investing. at least one year, 12 months. everybody has their different point, everybody has a different point what you can handle to sleep well at night but in general looking at one month out, if you are willing

to trade frequently, listen to what we are saying. neil: people overreact on the upside and downside. whether they start hiking rates, somebody -- >> this feels very much like february and march of this year when the market came down but the good news is at least that as we are looking at 2024 and the economy, looking at profits, things look a little better. we have 5 really bumpy years, not from an economic standpoint but corporate profit point of single digit gains except for 2021 or contractions. the hope is that we are going to become more normalized next year and maybe pull off a soft landing. lauren: 20 the economy itself. when you have this many job

openings it is a sign of a strong economy, not so much revenge travel anymore as much as it is extending balance sheets not nearly so depressing as we were led to believe but the underpinnings are sound. >> i agree. and that -- when you look at the fundamentals of the economy and profits, we are looking at potentially 14% profit growth, good unemployment, the one catch is what the bond market does. if we do expect greater hikes these yields keep going higher, that could reset everything. fundamentally things look great but it is all about what the bond market is doing. neil: higher interest rates

leading the show, how long it lasts, it is fairly consequential. the rates are historic. more after this.

>> three guys came out of nowhere and pointed guns at me. when you have three guns, looking at one with a gun at another with a gun, they say sure, got to keep comment on the situations, message is very simple, support law enforcement and i've been doing that for a long time. >> us congressman had a carjacking last night, hundreds of feet from the capital itself. this is getting to be more routine a lot of big cities,

shouldn't be that way, the washington examiner, this could have been a lot different. what do you think? >> it could be. to his credit, henry cuellar has been a far bulwark against the police flank but that wasn't able to stop dc city council from the funding to the police to the tune of $15 million in 2020 and as a result, police enrollment in dc is down 11%. %. in 2020, there were 100 officers, it is a big difference with surmounting crime, lowest moment in 20 years, that's no coincidence. maybe it used to be one of the safer places in dc and we see these horrific carjackings, no longer a safe haven in dc, crime is everywhere.

thank god that situation did not turn out worse. neil: did we see the same thing? >> in a way, i am a younger refugee, moved from chinatown for four years, just moved across the river to alexandria, virginia and would not want to be around dc myself. either with my husband or girlfriend, it's not safe anymore. neil: you have this going on, the migrant surge that some fear will trigger more crime and this frozen in place washington environments where they are trying to topple the speaker and you have the two parties, it is a mess. that's my professional view. >> it feels like no one understands the real issues plaguing the people, look at the latest gallup poll and, republicans have one of the

biggest leads in two decades in the economy yet they are fighting for kevin mccarthy's head because matt gaetz decided to blow up an actual spending cut he was able to get through a democratic senate. is preposterous with prices being up 17% in the last, since president biden took office, preposterous not to be focusing on crime. this is why republicans are so good at seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. neil: i understand it's for 5 or 6, and i will get there, and it is going up washington. that the narrow margin, in the post midterm house. it's coming back to bite, isn't it?

>> feels like poor sportsmanship and such inability to keep your eye on the cries, republicans are facing a crucial virginia election glenn youngcan trying to fire up virginia and if we had a government shutdown that came during those elections that would backfire on republicans and if you want to place in the dmv to expand school choice and law & order, a wise republican would not blow up that opportunity. republicans need to learn the candidate quality matters, the house margin is wider and potentially mitch mcconnell instead of chuck schumer, if it were more of a priority in the midterms. there when will seats, and unfortunately, next time, expand the majority so if you think mccarthy is a switch you can have a wider margin to vote for your guy instead of handing

it over to hakeem jeffries who is ready to impeach of donald trump does win in 2024, ready to impeach him on day one. stuart: you need that cushion. these narrow leads don't help. it is good seeing you. the dow down 358 points. the former president taking a break in the civil trial and what happens right now, why this is so important, a civil matter, not a criminal matter. after this. (vo) while you may not be running an architectural firm, tending hives of honeybees, and mentoring a teenager — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you,

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neil: took a break, i don't think i was right, still in the courthouse, not lower manhattan, the supreme court is

deciding a civil matter, not a criminal matter about how it values its properties and businesses, cutting to the chase, this could go on for months, charlie gasparino following this. charles: in state court, you have trump coming in federal court, sam bankman-fried, one is a civil fraud case, that's trump, spf, and start with trump. it 5 people to show me the victim. there is no victim. neil: leticia james. charles: under that. they have been talking about this, a federal effort to supersede that.

charles: the other thing, deutsche bank which gave these loans, they know donald is a blowhard, my house is 30,000 feet, of course they checked. neil: they were not harmed by this. charles: everybody lies about their house. my house -- neil: in two zip codes. charles: i painted it two years ago, no you didn't. neil: assuming this goes nowhere. i don't know what it is. as you were pointing out. it is not criminal but it does linger. what do you think? charles: when i talk to people

who served in the administration, on one hand, they are saying they can't believe he will survive this and on the other hand, saying i can't believe he is way ahead in the polls. there is this weird dichotomy about these cases, the diaspora is the best way of putting of trumpers who can't get their hands around this. this guy under other circumstances would be fraud. neil: without these indictments in the civil case, for the republican nomination, you don't know -- galvanize support. charles: i saw ron desantis on bill marr, what i found interesting about bill marr, desantis was all sort of business.

donald, when he gets up there is not a lot of business. it is all fluff. the republican electorate likes the fluff, they like the show. that's the best way to put it. lauren: 20 do you wear hats? charles: i don't. you are never going to get your fts exchange. look at his hair. neil: are just a deplorable human being. i think donald trump is coming out. can we go back? there we go. maybe not. there he is. cf he says something, zoom in on that. >> why did you decide to come?

you didn't have to. >> a trial. the attorney general. you have to expose the hashtag to see what's going on. frankly, frankly, you saw what was put out about that is disgraceful. >> did he say -- good afternoon. adam: this is following up, talking to reporters during a break outside the trial. he has harsh words for leticia james and the attorney general, before the judge, depending on the eye of the beholder removed a couple prior cases in 2014 or business transactions that would no longer be part of this

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neil: taylor swift, susan lee. we connect, you decide. >> any given sunday except taylor swift sundays. 29 million viewers at peak times watching the most-watched sunday event since the super bowl, 27 million on average watch the cheese pickup the jets. 24 million watch the blowout. and also you have ryan reynolds, and travis kelsey on the chiefs display. the nfl is loving the taylor bump because sizable increase

in female viewership, $0.50 the best 50% more teen girls across the board of all ages and i cannot say any more but the power of a taylor swift economy. not the first billion-dollar door, $2 million possibly, also contributed $5 billion to the economy because of all this travel and these kids wanting to pay thousands for the tickets. travis kelsey getting a boost, 400% increase in merchandise sales. neil: she is in a separate orbit. madison: 3 million instagram followers since this was revealed, more than all three still here. and flipping into someone's the ams which happened. madison: neil: this might be a publicity stunt to help boost kelsey's career but also the heirs to her movie which is a box office opening next weekend.

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neil: let me be swift. see what i did? it was the best i could do with no warning. we are down a lot on the stock market, up a lot interest rates and that is what the juggernaut is today. how it balances out i don't know. brian brenberg, hey, guys.