ashley: i have no idea but i went with number 4. stuart: what about you? lauren: i thought yorks too. stuart: it cannot possibly be crisps, that's what we call chips in england and melons, apples are rather small. winter bananas doesn't make sense so it's got to be yorks. winter bananas. are you kidding me? those in which colonists i tell you. ashley: oh my goodness. stuart: never heard that before. time is up for us, thanks very much, all great stuff, see you next week. "varney and company" is winding down, 10 seconds to go. i will make the most of this. i never throw my time away on television, it's too precious, coast-to-coast starts now.

neil: a lot of things are coming together. are you nervous? >> i step back, i look at how reality works. my job doesn't allow me to be nervous. i have to look at reality, how it works. put it in a historical context and i think my job is to deal with reality in the best way i can. julie: know that guy, you know that face, the creator of the most successful hedge fund in human history. he had taken out a claim that people would pay more to get more and they got a lot more, arguably the most successful investor on this planet. it made him worth close to $20 billion, those gains achieved through investments, it was his

financial skill to see value even when markets plummet. so far they are not plummeting today although they had been do we will follow that and what he makes of these gyrations. he doesn't obsess about them. a lot more from him and the reaction to an employment report that surprised people on the upside, you heard about you and expect again in jobs but people had little time to digest, capital markets chief global strategist, governor j, this could always change by day's end. what happened? >> reporter: we looked at wage growth and saw it was slowing and that came through nice relative numbers over the scheme of the year.

it is not as inflationary as people were concerned about. the shock with the jobs number. that had us scratching our heads. revisions were awful. good news became bad news. wage growth is at a normal level in line with where the fed is looking to do and the 10 year spiked enough so the fed doesn't have to raise rates. it has already done it for him. neil: i'm wondering about the tenure. for a while this morning we just touched 4.9, very close to it, down from those levels but seems to want to hit 5%, that's the gravitational force. what do you make of that? >> everyone is saying that and that is probably why it won't happen. we had a trauma this run, 3.8% at the end of july, we've run so far so fast, look what has done to utilities, staples,

stocks people are looking for yields, utilities are down 20% peak to trough. in a quick period staples getting hurt, getting hurt by ozempic if you want to talk about that but this is the reaction we are seeing, overall the magnificent 7 are taking this in stride which is very impressive. if we talk at 9:30 or 10:00 it was nerve-racking but things are easing, we have a lot of data next weekend the cpi will kick off earnings season on friday, that's where the focus is, we dodged it with the jobs growth so it is october, buckle up and see what next week brings. neil: you mentioned the volatility index as a gauge of where people are feeling, hitting a multi-month high and it stabilized a little bit here but it does change on a dime a lot of time so what is the mood

now? >> what is the mood now? this is the jay powell staple line, take one data point at a time. the move now, i don't give it much credence. it will spike. it is sentiment driven, usually when it gets a little too extended that is the time to come in and purchase as a market maker. next week the cpi, we are coming up on the anniversary of their yearly low, october 13th, we had a major selloff at the opening, reverse close up, that was a key reversal day, we've gone higher ever since. what was the catalyst? cpi, peak inflation. now, october 12th, this thursday, we get the cpi number again. i models skittish. as a technician i don't think we had that watch in the market, i would like to see total fear of won's over 20 and flush it out to the 200 day moving average, the moving level that is key support.

a little more panic, a little more fear is when i want to step in. we are seeing you utilities and staples. i think the cpi could be the tip and friday, earnings season, jpmorgan kicks us off. neil: we watch that closely. good weekend. chief global strategist of the stock exchange. the latest in the speaker race, one particular gentleman getting support from an important figure. >> the phones are lighting up as jim jordan and house majority leader steve scalise make their pitch. scalise is on the offensive after jordan wrapped up the endorsement of donald trump overnight. >> as speaker, need to hold the majority but continue to win more seats.

we need to be battling across this country. we have members in tough districts that even president biden won that we need to hold, and growing districts we didn't win and it takes a lot of money to do that too. >> reporter: scalise has raised one hundred $70 million for gop candidates, jordan a fraction of that, donald trump's endorsement could lose jordan, some gop members want to break with a former president. marjorie taylor greene supports the former president for speaker. she thinks scalise is not up to the job because he's suffering from cancer. >> it' s a difficult position. you have to travel the country. long work hours require fundraising, to keep the house, keep the majority and that is something. >> the person in charge of the house is patrick mchenry. it is believed republicans

could draft him for speaker. >> do you think you will want to run for speaker? >> reporter: fox has told the gop it will resist going to the floor to vote for speaker until someone has enough votes to win. they believe repeated failed vote on the floor highlights dysfunction and they don't want to show that after the 15 rounds in january. lauren: 1 luck on that front, thank you, want to go to greg murphy of north carolina coming up to join us. where are you on this, some of the candidates mentioned including jim jordan who has the support of donald trump. it's an interesting race, each of these individuals have different proclivities, different things, each have some challenges.

the you take jim, favoring vibrant person who has done fabulous on judiciary, his challenge will be overcoming the obstruction seen from members of the freedom caucus and trying to pull moderate members together especially those in the biden district, trying to get them on board, jim is a great guy, he will need to step up his fundraising across the board, not just on the conservative side of the caucus but across the board. steve is a known quantity. he would be the successor for this position and there have been some questions of his health. i've talked to him. i'm a physician and have been for 35 years. seems like his doctors at anderson think he is over the initial heartland feel he's up to it. one wildcard in this is kevin who has laid low and made conversations with kevin is extremely talented. has been in the conservative wing of congress, well respected.

he just hasn't thrown his name and yet. neil: is hinted at it. had him on yesterday. he was pretty cagey. talk to the texas delegation, seem to be open to that. i like on a lot of this to when the cardinals selected a pontiff, there's no smoke coming out of the chapel. i get that but there is this fear, don't know if it is a fear where two widely rumored candidates cancel each other out and someone else emerges. et al. francis emerged. the two should not be joined at the hip, that's comparisons, someone we don't hear a lot about, could be to your point, could be someone else. >> that is absolute plausibility. there's still a lot of pain from what happened with members

of the freedom caucus, matt gaetz being one but i don't think he will have any voice at all. just not discuss that. there's been a lot of pain -- julie: is a lot of ill will there, isn't there? not going to get over that quickly? including yourself? >> not quickly, not quickly. jim carey's that though jim has done a fantastic job as chairman of the judiciary. we are coming from i don't want to say extremes but two sides, freedom caucus members have a problem with jim and chip roy for helping to negotiate. we can absolutely see kevin come out of the shadows and be a unifying speaker. . 20 you know why i enjoy having you on? you answer any question. you don't dance around. >> i'm a surgeon. i don't mess around. i get to the point. neil: you are the kind of doctor who would tell me you

are just fat. you can't just lose 5 pounds. >> my famous line when i see somebody, i will see you next year but do me a favor, i want to see less of you. it is just a way of generally saying you got too much weight on, lose it. adam: don't see that sort of thing on the left or the right. following a couple developed, the market coming back, interest rates have backed up, not backed up as much but the fact is mortgage rates are hovering in and out of 7.5% level, just a stones throw from 8%. that's just a matter of time, we are told. ♪

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adam: i try to miss the dollar signs on those bills, they get thrown out because the demand is such for housing that there's a limited supply even in the face of higher mortgage

rates so it behooves you to think of this in the big picture because we have mortgage rates at or around 70%, 8% too far. i remember did i tell you this? 13.5%, i told you a thousand times, one of my favorite guests, as we were mentioning during the break this environment where it is still tight supply and that's keeping prices high but there's some wiggling going on. >> sellers understand things have shifted, they are being more flexible but it usually takes 18 months to two years for sellers to capitulate on pricing so next year -- julie: with a capitulate anyway? >> there's a little flexibility, a little negotiating, even in new york city, a little bit in the hamptons, people are bending but it does take time for them.

larry: this is a special rarefied world. a lot more times with cash. what are they telling you? >> reporter: new york is different, people are willing to spend, there's a lot of money, talking about the second quarter of 23 in manhattan, 65% of deals were cash which is an outlier. it's unusual. we see cash, that level of cash is the usual. the mortgage rates, talking about that, the 15 year high which won't impact the pricing for the 30 year mortgage at 7%. neil: there is resistance to sell in a market like this. >> if i had to describe this market as a relationship i would call it complicated. doesn't make sense.

the economy is doing well, no recession. inflation is coming down even though it jumps around, jobs report, labor market not slowing down, julie: the jobs report, rates stay high, some people focusing on the wage component, the increase is slowing it has been over these months. inflation is a worry. >> people don't know what the fed will do. they skipped september, initially they said next year there would be four cuts, now they are saying two cuts. so the uncertainty creates consumers to pause. in the housing market there has been a slow down. people are concerned, we need inventory, prices to come down, rates are high. neil: how soon before a seminal

figure for folks, i remember when it was a lot higher. >> if possible i would say it probably will, based on all the things we have seen but none of us can forecast. a lot of economists say we will have a recession, haven't done that yet. first quarter, soft recession, who knows, i don't know what will happen, nobody has a crystal ball but it is not in the end of the world. economy is resilient and we are doing deal so be happy. neil: good balance for you. we are also following the markets after the uaw strike, we will get the news later how far they will expand this. grady troubling wayne, michigan with the latest. >> reporter: we are expecting an announcement from shawn fain and about an hour and 1/2, we along with the workers and

automakers are waiting to hear people expand this straight, keep it as is or even scale it back depending on how talks are going. he tweeted this, kind of goading the companies by depicting them as contestants on the bachelorette. the caption tells people to tune into his lifestream to see who gets the rose. we are talking to getting workers here and data stellantis plant and they feel the talks this week have been going better than the previous weeks so they are not convinced the strike will expand again. they think maybe there won't be more walkouts this week. >> i have confidence in my union leadership, confident in the bargaining committee and in ford motor company to be fair and equitable and we will come out with a good agreement. we are not trying to cripple anybody, we are just trying to get to an agreement. >> reporter: the ball is in the

uaw's court, all three automakers are waiting for its response to their latest offers but the uaw isn't publicly commenting on those offers. we know gm put forward its latest proposal to the uaw this weekend a source familiar with the talks between the automaker and the union says the two sides of made progress in key areas so we will see if it was enough progress to spare them in escalation this week, general motors the only automaker who has had the strike expanded on them each week with more walkouts. we also know the big three laid off thousands of workers. is starting to hit suppliers as well. a lot of these suppliers in michigan and other parts of the midwest, mom and pop shops, some of them are warning they could go bankrupt if the strike drags on. neil: the president of the united states is speaking to the white house about them strong jobs report, 336,000 americans, he likes what he

sees, says the trend is his friend. i thought i would alert you to that. more after this.

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adam: we are still monitoring the president touting his bidenomics, not getting any questions, that might happen about this reversal on building a wall and finding materials to build that wall, they are out there, devil of a time finding it. hillary vaughan on capitol hill with more on that. >> the biden administration went from auctioning off border wall bits and pieces to the highest bidder to now buying out border wall materials to build a border wall. president biden says this border wall walked back is not because too many people are coming into this country illegally but because he can't

spend the money on anything else. >> president biden: the money was appropriate for the border wall, try to get them to reappropriate, they didn't and wouldn't. i can't stop that. >> do you know where the border wall is? >> no. >> wasteful spending has not bothered the biden administration before. a report from center about the can says dod spent 300 million on unused border wall pamphlets, 130,000 a day to store them and the first year of biden's term when he paused construction on the wall the costs were much higher, spending at its peak $6 million some days, for contractors, to to babysit order wall parts. when democratic mayor in texas is calling biden out. >> for political expediency, president biden is building the border wall, you're looking at one hundred 80 degree turn by president biden. it begs the question why this charade, why build a barrier when president biden is doing

the same thing, talk about hypocrisy at its finest. >> it is not just president biden that seems to have changed his mind. 's dhs secretary, alejandra mayorkas went from saying there's an acute and immediate need to build this wall where they are building at 2 now saying nothing has changed, they are only building this wall because they have to. julie: the kind of thing that bugs one of the richest and most successful investors of all time, the genius behind the most successful hedge fund in human history. what he says about politicians and the back-and-forth, wyatt rattles him on the financial future, after this. ♪ ♪

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neil: do any of you pay attention to the doomsday clock? 7 of 10 of josé there is no when they trust to save us from a end of the world event. that means little more than 1/4 think it's possible, just doesn't look too good. all these events that grip us and have us shearing, he likes to say it's not about a single event, the president of the united states with a dobbs reporter congress arguing over their new leader, it's all of that wrapped in one with a

sweeping view of history. he talked talks about the stuff on tv. >> don't ever pay attention to any one thing. the most important thing any investor can do is no how to diversify wealth, to achieve a balance. if you can achieve a balance in your portfolio, i would recommend most investors not listen to what some guy comes on and says i am bullish or bearish. julie: people look at the market and say i'm a long time investor and i believe in american capitalism and stick with apple and microsoft technology, what do you say? >> let me get my diversity point across first and then come across that question. if you know how to diversify well, you can reduce your risk of 80% without reducing the

return so the one thing we know most is what we don't know is greater than what we do know. we diversify in different asset classes, where you are under waited and diversify into different countries. if i was to pick how we could go. neil: having diversified you expanded. we are doing very well in our investments in china and when it is politically not appropriate and we are told that, investing in china and the united states and other countries there are parts -- adam:'s and sign --

>> let me give you three things to look for as the countries generally, and people, are you earning more than you are spending so you have a good income statement and a good balance sheet? those that are better financially will be better off, but people within that country operating well with each other, to be productive through a healthy capital market environment that the system working well with each other and hurt each other. number 3, they are not going to get into an international war. if i'm looking at some places to be biased or more like that. lauren: 20 not like the usa? we are not doing any of that? anything.

>> we have as a country those issues. other countries have those issues. neil: we just personified it with the fight over kevin mccarthy as speaker, people are looking at this, ignoring the elephant in the room that is exploding on us now. >> we are jumping from one thing to another. i wanted to complete the thought of -- rob: brilliant at this but people hearing what you are saying will interpret it, everything he warns about or focuses on is a big worry right here. >> that's right. if you worry you don't have to worry. if you worry you don't have to worry. if you worry, you will take care of the things you are worrying about. if you don't worry you won't.

so i hope that people will worry, be more concerned about the debt. neil: it is not among americans 10 biggest concerns, certainly not congress's. >> maybe conversations like this, we have to worry they are not worrying and have to worry they are not dealing with it. you are asking what do we do, we might communicate, we do know that every one of these things if we work together in a smart, bipartisan way so that we can do the best balance, those choices that we can deal with most of these problems but the problem, i will agree with you, the reality is there is populism in both extremes meaning both parties are lining up for a fight that there is not trust in the system, not

trust in truth, not trust in the system. julie: is any politician -- the nullify or -- >> as a result of that and as a result -- as a result of that, we are likely to have irreconcilable differences that may not be settled by rules and law. julie: talked about this generally on principles for dealing with changing world order, principles for success but this has become such a phenomenon with all your bestsellers, tens of millions pop on youtube to catch what you are saying but what you are saying is we are none of that really, we are not following any of that at this point. underneath the fallout from that, anyone on earth, presently doing that. if we are in the final throes of something, to safely address this, is there a politician, i

candidate, someone who stands out to you that gives you hope? >> i will answer that, give me a second to get it out. we need bipartisan, the majority of americans want a bipartisan middle. we are having extremes on both sides. i would say, if the middle, moderate republicans, moderate democrats just even said i am bipartisan, and you say i am bipartisan, i want a word, but then will you have the courage to do that. if a limited number, small number in both parties became bipartisan and put together a bipartisan coalition in the house and senate, they would

have swing votes, a third party may be too great to aspire to but if you even just had members of either party say i am bipartisan and cross party lines. i have more in common with the moderates of that party to work together than i have for the other extremes. neil: ronald reagan and tip o'neill, the shelflife, constantly, are there people like that today? >> we will find out. i don't think it is likely but it is a very simple thing. are you bipartisan or not? neil: is president biden bipartisan? >> not the way i mean. not the way i mean it. i am saying if you have those and go to the coalition, that could make a big difference. neil: if we don't.

>> if we don't we are likely to have irreconcilable differences about values and wealth and important things that will drive people to different states, they will go to blue states are red states. there will be difficulty of the central government to order the populations to behave the way they want, they will say make me, there will be a challenge, a very risky situation but it has come down to the things people will fight for have become i will not compromise, i'm going to win at all costs, so the rules are in jeopardy. that is where we are now. in committees, you watch these committees, they are very politically biased.

of of the 20 the mccarthy drama. coming back to -- is this your way of saying in academic terms, historical terms this doesn't look good for the united states? >> my way of trying to convey facts. neil: does not favor a good and end. >> and convey choices that can be made. i do agree with you. it's not considered a priority because we haven't felt the pain. you go to your favorite sport, watch the movies you want to watch, kids go to school, life is abnormal. neil: something hits. >> when these things it --. 20 how close are we getting to the hip? >> it's going to evolve in the next five years. it's going to evolve over the next five years in the

following way. we are going to have internally a great political conflict in terms of that. lauren: 20 as if we haven't already. >> now we've got the directions. now we have just lining up for the fight. julie: the fight will be more entrenched after the election. >> will we accept judgments and rulings? what will that -- julie: the text up the last presidential election results. what makes you think that will change? >> it is a question. you ask me how it is going to evolve. neil: think you 've figured out the answers, you know what's going to happen and you are worried and you are couching it by saying here are some things that could change but i don't think -- >> no one is accusing me of couching much. here is. over the next year we will have

a great political conflict. over the next year, two, three, we are going to have in my opinion, i might be wrong, we are going to have debt and economic issues that will play into that and over the next one, 2, 3 years, we are going to have conflicts with geopolitical conflicts with china and such. . 20 see how he laid that out, over the next five years. he is not a day in short-term investor, get in and go out, he has become the most successful investor on our list of $20 million practicing that. he lays it out for us like this. ♪ dad, we got this. we got this.

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i was on a journey for a really long time to find some relief. cosentyx works for me. cosentyx helps real people get real relief from the symptoms of psoriatic arthritis or psoriasis. serious allergic reactions, severe skin reactions that look like eczema, and an increased risk of infections, some fatal, have occurred. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine or plan to or if ibd symptoms develop or worsen. i move so much better because of cosentyx. ask your rheumatologist about cosentyx. adam: probably gains the dow is in and out on this year, not so much the s&p, the nasdaq but in case you think you can dive in.

>> double price the market. this still pricey market. what is the risk free rate? the process i am going through. this is, i moderately priced the market with risks of interest rates more going up and down, because we still have central banks who have lost a lot of money. central banks of lost a lot of money. that may be depending on how the central bank is handling it. the uk, all of them pretty much marking losses to market but they all have experience to the point of negative capital. in countries where they have rules about arch they have to get capital from the government.

that dynamic means the government has to come up with more money. 2% of gdp means the budget will be 2%. where do they get the money? neil: just print it. >> that the dynamic in different places. in the united states it won't matter much. there will be those losses. if it becomes a political issue, if the fed is losing money and financing the deficits and that becomes a political issue that could matter as this happens but those losses create a compounding effect, you have the losses, and negative income, where short rates are and long rates are, they have

to pay out short rates, spread become negative and at the end of the day you print money. neil: so we could speed up. anyway, i'm trying to convey the mechanics. neil: these questions, the day-to-day running of your hedge fund, a lot of people are saying you want to come back. >> that is so wrong. it was written in an article in the new york times and it says that and that is so wrong. don't believe what you read, last thing i want to do is come back on that and i want to be clear. neil: what are you going to do? >> i'm having a joyous -- i am

-- i love my gain, enough days in my life, the number one thing i do is pinch things along, i'm 74 years old. i learned the instinct to pass things along. my son gave me a book by joseph campbell, this phase in life, returning of the boom. i learned some things i want to pass along. then deal with my philanthropy. and -- neil: are the kids okay with that? >> there's a problem if kids have too much money, if they have too little money, i was lucky, two parents loved me, went to public school.

they got it. who cares? sometimes -- they are fine. i have a joyous relationship, i'm a mentor. my responsibility as pass along mentor, one more book, economic and investment principles. neil: these principles have success. >> and go quiet. neil: we are going to have more of this interview. for tv purposes we have to end things. the full interview on the website very soon. something that fleshes out because this went on for an hour. there will be more of that on monday and more on my weekend

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neil: a lot more to come, it is the reality of it. don't get to see everything eventually, online, the entire interview without interruptions or editings. tomorrow on my weekend show. by the time we are done with all that, it will be uninterrupted on all the various issues. sometimes we would have to interrupt but some big points coming up including what to do about china, why our decline isn't automatically again for chinese when it is there as well. we will keep you posted on that. jackie deangelis and "the big money show". jackie: have a wonderful week