particular topic. maria: well, listen, i agree with you on the border, but the fact is, is we don't know what this money is going to be for for the border because what they've been doing at the border is just creating more housing for the migrants coming in. i mean, when you look at the border, the border needs policy changes not money. it needs policy changes to go back with to the trump add or managers policies. cheryl, final thoughts. >> because we know that we have several nationalities of citizens that are coming through the southern border, from china, mauritania, from syria, from iran. we've gone through those numbers together, maria. the open border is a threat to u.s. security. maria: yeah. caroline, final word. >> far too little, far too late. stop throwing money at the problem, enforce the damn law. that is how we're going to fix this country. maria: all right. the dow industrials down about 100 points right now. we will continue this on monday. "varney & company" picks it up. stu, take it away,ing ashley webster in for stuart varney.

take it away. ashley: thank you, maria with. good morning, everyone. i'm ashley webster in today for stuart varney. president biden holding a prime time address to make the case for billions in aid to israel and ukraine. and while he didn't give a number, it is widely expected to be around $100 billion, maybe more. some critics not happy that biden is using the war in israel to push for more aid to ukraine. we're going to get into that issue. meantime, the situation in the middle east intensifying. smoke rising from buildings in gaza saw as israel's ground offensive could begin soon. israel warning the conflict will be long and intense. tar heinrich is the spokeswoman for prime minister benjamin netanyahu. meanwhile, more attacks on u.s. troops in the mideast are ramping up, overnight two more were thwarted in iraq. meanwhile, hamas is calling for another day of rage. they're encounselinging muslims a-- encouraging muslims to stage

mass protests against israel. as for the markets, let's take a look at the futures. the markets selling off yesterday among all of this uncertain the city, and you can see the dow, the s&p and the a nasdaq all moving slightly lower. meanwhile, oil back over $90 a barrel, and that could be more of an issue if the unrest continues to escalate in the middle east. let's take a look at the 10-year treasury yield with. this has been the big story. it crossed 5% for the very first time late last night in aftermarket trading. right now it's at 4.96%. take a look at bitcoin, also rallying again. this time closing in on $30,000, up $900 at $29,566. and one last worry if you wanted one more, we still do not have a house speaker. it is friday, october the 20th, 2023. "varney & company" if is about to begin.

muck. ♪ ♪ ashley: let's get right to it. smoke rising from the skies over gaza as israel prepares its ground offensive. mike tobin live on the ground this morning in israel. mike, good morning to you. give us the latest. >> reporter: well, good morning, ashley. what the latest is, is the idf is showing us some of the weaponry they seized after the of course 7th attacks -- october 7th attacks. this is a hamas ie or d, a roadside bomb. this one is designed to be a shape charge, if you will. the top becomes molten metal at a pinpoint if with the design of penetrating armor, killing everyone inside of a tank. more ieds here, roadside bombs. these are simple mines. as you go in this direction, this is a launcher for a rocket-propelled grenade, and as you see here the store the,

what's significant is hook at the color. the green ones are old soviet legacy. if you looked at these gray ones, these are made by north korea. very significant in terms of where they're getting their development. if you like across this cache of weapons, you can see a mortar tube, just one mortar bomb on the ground behind some debris there, those are made in iran in 2018. speaking to the support that hamas is getting from iran. you see a lot of hand grenades, all this stuff is disarmed. this is the, the idf says it's 1% of the weapons that they see. most of the weapons, they're destroying it, but these are some of the things that they've put on display just to show the kind of weaponry that hamas fighters had access to and the kind of weaponry that they turned on the civil kwan population. ashley? -- civilian population. ashley? ashley: mike tobin, fascinating stuff. thank you for that, mike, appreciate it. by the way, i just want to

mention this, you can join the fox corporation in supporting the israel emergency fund in association with the united jewish with appeal. you can just scan the qr code you can see on the screen there, or you can donate at ujafedny.org. all right, president biden addressing the nation last night. he made the case for billions in aid for israel and ukraine. take a listen. >> we're not withdrawing. i know these conflicts can seem far away. it's natural to ask why does this matter to america. let me share with you why making sure israel and ukraine succeed is vital for america's national security. you know, history has taught us that when terrorists don't pay a price for their terror, when dictators don't pay a price for their aggression with, they cause more chaos and death and more destruction. they keep going. and the cost and the threats to america expect world keep rising. -- and the world keep rising. ashley: well, okay.

mollie hemingway joins me now. lots been said about this speech, some said it was a bit disjointed, all over the place. what was your takeaway from the speech last night? >> the speech was disjointed, it kind of meandered all over the place, but the bigger issue is that president biden is trying to take a bunch of popular things like a desire to support having a southern border in the united states or a desire to support israel as it fights off hamas and putting it in with something that's actually not very popular in america which is an escalation in the war in ukraine. most of the funding that he listedded in that speech would have gone to ukraine, and rather than having a vote on that which may or may not do particularly well in the senate or in the house, he wants to lump it together with popular things and have it be spent. st there's also the issue that he's calling for at least $100 billion in funding. most of it going to ukraine. at a time when the country is facing some pretty serious problems with its economy and

with its rising debt. ashley: yes. you'd like to see those issues kind of voted on pratt9ly. i think it's $60 billion out of the $105 billion and just $14 billion actually goes to israel, some of that goes to taiwan and some to the southern border. so you think those should be split up. >> not just in terms of what you vote on, but also in the argument. so right now you have biden and people who support his foreign policy saying that the war that israel's engaged in against hamas is the same war as the proxy war against russia in ukraine. they're very different wars, and they have very different cases, and the american people view its ally, israel, very differently than they do the war between russia and ukraine. and he knows that, that's why he's radiotrying to muddle it. but -- trying to muddle it. at a time when money is not in abundance and when you pivot away what we saw in the war in russia recently, the war in ukraine was taking some of the resources that were in the middle east and putting them over in ukraine.

that is turning out not to have been a very good idea as we see that the attention needs to be paid in the middle east. ashley: we hear you loud and clear. i'm sorry it's so short but, mollie, thank you. so much. >> thank you, ash. ashley: i want to bring the discussion back at home. thank you. fed chair jerome powell sees a bumpy path forward as we head into the end of the year. good morning, lauren simonetti. does that mean more rate hikes? lauren: let me consult my crystal ball. [laughter] who know, ashley? the fed chair said it doesn't feel like policy is too tight right now so, yeah, he left the door open. i thought he sounded relatively optimistic about the economy. he said it's doing a good job of handling tighter monetary policy. let me show you how much we've tightened. this you go. eleven rate hikes since march of last year, 550 basis points of tightening. but it seems like this recent runup in yields is doing some of the fed's work for it, and that's why investors seem to

lean into the fact that the fed is done with rate hikes. futures are pricing in a less than 1 in 3 chance of another rate hike. so he's left his options on the table. ashley: he certainly did. lauren, thank you very much. let's take a looked at those futures again, down slightly after yesterday's selloff, down about, as you can see, a third of a percent for all the major indexes. let's bring in kenny polcari on this friday. kenny, great to see you. to lauren's point, you know, fed chair powell pointed it out that these rising treasury yields kind of doing the job for them, right? >> it is. and i think we're going to see more of that, right? i think, listen, on the one hand while i thought a couple weeks ago the fed should continue to raise, in fact, i've changed my mind partly because of everything else that's now going on in the world and the fact that rates have continued to move higher and will probably continue to do so. so that is doing some of the work for the fed, and i think pausing at the moment is probably the right thing to do.

ashley: it's interesting, isn't it, kenny, because you have to kind of give them some props, if you like, jay powell and the board, because they have raised rates 11 times. they're at over 5%, 5.25, something like that, and yet the economy has been remarkably resill yen. he hasn't cratered the economy to try and bring down inflation. >> well, he hasn't. he hasn't yet, right? i think you have to qualify it by saying yet because i do think now that rates, especially the 10-year, that went over 5% late last night like you said, the 30-year mortgage is going to go to 8% and probably even higher, and at that point it's going to start to put more pressure on, you know, the consumer, the economy and everything else. i'm not necessarily saying he's going to destroy it, but i do see the break is coming. it hat to be coming. ashley: i hear you. the markets tend to surge or pick up a bit going into year end, but with these really high treasury yields we've seen oil going up, and it could really skyrocket if things escalate in

the middle east. how does that play to the stability of the market heading into year's end? >> i think you have to be a little bit cautious, right? you have to be prepared for more volatility which i think we're going to get. but i do think9 that the 10-year's going to settle right in here at 5%. i don't think it's going to 5.a 5 or, god forbid, 6%. i don't think it's going there yet. i think you have to look at some of the sectors that have gotten beaten up, the small cap names, looked at utilities, got beaten up. financials, certainly, i think is a place you want to be. energy, i'm going to stay with energy. i'm not chasing tech at all up here because that's whey extended -- way extended, nor am i chasing the discretionary. you can always take your money at the moment if you're nervous and put it in government money market fun or u.s. treasuries. they're going to get you 5, better than 5% at the moment. ashley: yeah. it's hard to turn down, isn't it, especially in this very uncertain environment. >> yeah.

ashley: kenny polcari, wonderful stuff. have a great weekend, my friend. >> you as well. ashley: all right. thank you, kenny. coming up, president biden says he will hold iran accountable. listen to this. >> iran is supporting russia in ukraine, and it's supporting that hamas -- hamas and other terrorist groups in the region. and we'll continue to hold them accountable, i might add. ashley: so how should biden respond to iran? presidential candidate and former very p mike pence will be along here to take that on. also there's this, wisconsin congressman tom tiffany introduced a pill to prevent palestinian migrants from coming to the u.s. he's going to tell us how he plans to make that a happen next. mug. ♪

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♪ ashley: president biden calling on congress to help fund the fight for israel and ukraine in their wars last night. hillary vaughn joins us this morning on capitol hill and, hillary, is many biden going to lump in -- mr. biden going to lump in border security with this request? >> reporter: he is, ashley. and the president announcing last night the total price tag for this aid package will be $105 billion. the associated press reporting how this is all going to be divvied up. $60 billion for ukraine, $14 billion for israel, $10 billion in the humanitarian aid,ing $7 billion for taiwan and $14 billion for the border to also help fight fentanyl trafficking. but after seeing how terrorists rayed israel's southern border

and massacred entire families, lawmakers here on capitol hill worry we are not prepared to fight against something like that happening. >> the american people want to know what this administration if is doing to secure our nation. we have watched in horror what happened in israel, and americans that i represent and others across this nation are saying we don't want this to happen here, but we think it could. over 100 terrorist watch list apprehensionings this year under joe biden. >> reporter: the house judiciary committee releasing a report earlier this month showing that dhs cannot keep track of all the migrant cans saying the illegal of -- millions of illegal immigrants, quote, dhs can locate only a fraction of them. the report also saying, quote, u.s. border control does not always record migrant addresses and doesn't always validate addresses prior to migrant release into the u.s. and, of course, the big concern here is if you don't know where to find these migrants, we don't really know who they are. and if they are a threat, we

don't know how to track them down to stop that threat. the other big point in this aid package is until the house has a speaker, they are not going to be able to pass this much-needed aid for israel, for ukraine or for the border. ashley? ashley: yeah, that's exactly right. hillary, thank you very much. wisconsin congressman tom tiffany joins me now. congressman, you recently introduced a bill to prevent the flow of palestinians into the united states. how is that going to work? >> so we refer to it, ashley, as the gaza act. and what it does is it says anyone with a palestinian authority passport, they shall not be allowed in the united states. think about it, ashley. both jordan and egypt said it's a red line, that they will not allow people from palestine or palestinians into their country. why should we across an ocean do that when their neighbors won't? ashley: well, we've talked about the or porous southern border. how do we know that these

individuals have not already crossed the border and are in the country now? >> yeah, you made a really good point. i think in just the previous segment there when it was talked about the number of people in america that they can't find, there's only 1% of people that the biden administration has admitted that they know where they're at. ashley: yeah. it's insane, it really is. i want to get on to this other big issue because all we're talking about can't really happen until we get this situation sorted out in the house of representatives. the next vote on speaker is expected this morning after 11:00. it could go on through the weekend, it depends. you are supporting jim jordan, i understand. so my question to you is, does he have the votes needed, the 217 that he needs? >> yeah, i don't know if he has the votes or not, but i think he's doing the right thing by calling a vote. and if you remember, speaker mccarthy went through 15 votes earlier this year. it may take multiple more votes to do it, but i think jim jordan is the right guy. contrast his message this

morning. if you watched his press conference with president biden where president biden couldn't even in a whole hearted fashion call out iran for what they are doing in the middle and in russia, whereas you get real clarity of message with jim jordan. you know, when he talks about let's fight, let's finish and let's keep the faith of the american people that the american dream is still alive. it is a clear contrast, and that's why i'm supporting jim jordan. ashley: are you concerned, congressman, of the optics of all of this? it appears that the, they're kind of making it up as you go along. there's, you know, a sense that the republicans can't get their act together. could there be repercussions for what's going on next year, in next year's elections? >> if it goes on trooping, i suspect that's the case. but, you know, what have we missed, like, four legislative days. there's a lot of hand-wringing that's going on, but we should get to work this weekend, and let's get the speaker named. i think it should if be jim

jordan because he is one of the best communicators. he has a vision for where we should go to get control of inflation, to bring down energy prices and, most importantly, secure the border so we don't have this terrorist threat that may be coming across our border. he clearly understands what needs to be done, and i think the more than people are with him, and they want us to society for jim as the speaker of the house. ashley: well, we'll see how that works out. congressman, thank you so much for taking the time to talk with us this morning. we really appreciate it, thank you. >> ashley, good to a talk the to you. ashley: by the way -- same here. it's been more than two weeks since the house has had a speaker. some are considering giving speaker pro tem patrick mchenry of north carolina more power in the meantime, so what does congressman matt gaetz think about that idea, lauren? lauren: he says he doesn't like it. there's no jerry rigging of the constitution needed or warranted. watch. >> i'm against speaker light,

i'm against bud light. i believe it is a constitutional desecration to not elect a speaker of the house. we need to stay here until we elect a speaker. and if someone can't get the votes, we need to go on to the next person. but twisting and torturing the constitution to empower a temporary speaker is having a speaker light. that is not constitutionally contemplated, it's deeply infirm, and i will do everything possible to stop it. lauren: he's not the only republican saying that. jim jordan says he's in it to win with it, but there's a lot of republicans who don't necessarily dislike jim jordan, they just don't like that he's strong arming and bullying them to come to his side. let me tell you the latest on chad pergram's reporting on fox news, he's positing that if enough and the right republicans are absent for these votes, jordan could actually win. but, of course, if the wrong republicans are absent, we might be speaking of speaker hakeem

jeffries. ashley: wow. one word comes to mind, shambles. lauren chaos. [laughter] ashley: let's take a look at the futures. after losing ground yesterday, looks like we may begin with a modest loss at the opening bell which, by the way, is coming up next. stick around. ♪ ♪

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call today and we'll also send this free guide. humana. a more human way to healthcare. ashley: the opening bell will ring in less than three minutes now. expecting a slightly lower open mark mahaney, you follow netflix. their third quarter came in very strong. you had a $500 price target on netflix. any changes to that? >> no, ashley. we stuck with the $500 price target. we think they can generate $20 in earnings by 2025. you put a 25 pe multiple on it, and that maps out to the $500 price target. expectations with were super low for netflix going into the quarter, and so the sub numbers were just a lot better for both september quarter and how they guided for the next quarter, the december quarter. they were a lot better than

people expected. turns out they had a couple of cards up their sleeves. "suits" did very well for them in the u.s., and there was a bunch of original content shows across europe that led them to have record of new sub adds coming in from outside of the u.s. this company's always been a hit machine, and people just underappreciated some of the hits that they had rolled out in international markets. so we continue to like netflix. it's not a top pick, but it's what happens when expectations are super low for good assets. netflix is one of those. ashley: right. in this very volatile environment, there's a lot of headwinds, a lot of concerns out there for investors. is there any particular sector that you are honing in on? >> i'm not sure that there is any one sector. you know what i'm looking for in this environment is really good tactical plays. so i want to the find companies that have got improving fundamentals. and if their valuations are less than normal, less than average, then that's your setup.

and that's where i think you are on meta, google and amazon, all three of which report next week. i particularly like the setup on amazon because it's sort of similar in my mind to netflix. expectations are low, and i think the core business is not as strong as it was a year ago, there was a lot of issues between the cloud business, but i think it has the ability to recover. revenue acceleration, margin expansion, when you find that combination in a stock that that's been somewhat dislocated, that's usually a good stock picker's opportunity. i like that with all three names, particularly meta and amazon. ashley: very quickly, mark, would you say you're cautious right now, leaning more bullish or more bearishesome. >> i call myself totally tactically constructive. i was tactically constructive at the beginning of the year, i'm more so now with the with two months' pullback we had. i try to stay focused on the fundamentals, and i think they're going to improve with those three names reporting next

e week. ashley: very good. we'll leave it there. i like it, very diplomatic. mark ma happyny, thank you so much. we are up and running, right out of the chute here we're down 40 points, a tenth of a percent on the dow. 33,374. let's talk a look at the s&p, losing about .8% in yesterday 's session. there's the dow 30 stocks, by the way, procter & gamble at the tom, mc -- at the top, mcdonald's. the s&p also down about a tenth of a percent, and the nasdaq lost 1% in yesterday 's session, down begun a quarter of a percent. just 34 points. when we talk about nasdaq, of course we talk about the big tech names. let's take a look at those. mixed ball,s -- bag, mostly down. meta managing to eke out a small gain, but microsoft, apple, amazon, alphabet all moving lower. all right. now we'll get to some of the individual stocks. let's take a look at solar edge

if we can. it's way down. i say way down, that's not doing it justice, nearly 34%. lauren, what's going on here? lauren: it's a residential solar power company, and they are warning of significantly lower revenue in this quarter. this is a3-year low for the stock, and other solar stocks are down also. the ceo said they experienced substantial up unexpected cancellation ares, particularly from their european customers, but also slower installations overall. a big consequence with of the down trend is high interest rates. ashley: indeed. wow, getting whacked, down 35. let's move on. coinbase. i believe rallying today -- lauren: yep. ashley: let's have a look, 11.5%. what's going on -- 1.5%. lauren: bitcoin in general is alsoer for the -- higher for the sec day. they are confident an extf will be approved by -- etf will be

approved soon, because the sec fail to block gray scale from converting its bitcoin into an etf. what it does is it gives investors a way to own bitcoin without having to directly purchase it from an exchange. in other words, you could say it takes some risk out of the equation. and to that point, bitcoin prices have been relatively stable recently, right? between $28-30,000 on a good day because of the lack of volatility. that's also why some investors are sitting on the sidelines, because they loved the huge runups, not downfalls. they loved the ride the runups that the volatility did bring to the crypto sector. ashley: that is for sure. let's talk about the awe the makers, talk of layoffs potentially at stellantis? lauren: another 100. these are temporary layoffs, they start on mono, this is happening at their lead to e doe, ohio, pa moo chain --

machine plants. this is not including striking workers. total layoffs at stellantis as the disruption of the strike, it's more than 1500. that's just one automaker. similar numbers, in fact, bigger numbers at gm and ford, and we'll get an announcement from shawn fein, the head of the uaw, at 4:00 today, ashley. ashley: very good. i want to talk about ozempic. you know, it's a diabetes drug, but everyone now calls it a weight loss drug because that's one of the side effects. now there's talk about maybe using this drug for kids because of weight loss? lauren: look, obesity among children is a big problem. bloomberg is reporting that novo nordisk is testing ozempic for children, and eli lilly plans to test its approved diabetes drug mounjaro, that one is just approved for diabetes, they're planning to test it on kids as young as 6 years old. in fact, they're already testing it on 10-year-olds. so these are are the numbers.

20% of kids are to bees. that's almost 15 million children. it expands the market for these obesity drugs already estimated at $100 million by the year 2030. but another side to this story, because you never know long-term effects, but sheer laziness, right? that you can just take at shot, take a pill, and all of a sudden look your best? i mean -- [laughter] ashley: yeah. lauren: what about hard work or eating healthy or doing the right thing to be in shape? ashley: that's true. of but for some people all of that just doesn't help, they truly struggle. but i hear your point. i want to move on to this, i saw this headline earlier this morning, i'm like, what? cvs pulling some cold medicines off the shelf. what's going on in. lauren: i know. and the worry is that walgreens and rite aid could do the same thing. do you remember that decision, the ruling from the fda a couple of weeks ago, they said there's this common ingredient in these popular over the counter cold many medications like mucinex

and they are flew -- they are flu, that that common ingredient was ineffective? they cited a study, so now cvs is pulling these popular drugs that contain it from store zell -- shelves. ashley: i don't know, mucinex works for me. lauren: certain ones, yeah. ashley: yeah, i get it. are we all going to be wearing virtual reality devices soon? i know what stuart varney would say to that, shul not. march r. lauren: what would you say? ashley: i kind of like it. i play some virtual reality games with my children, and i kind of got hooked on it. lauren: it might be easier for you to wear those devices, those headsets, because government regulators are working with the tech industry, with meta, with apple to open up a band of spectrum for wearables. that would enable new applications of these a.r. and v.r. devices. so it would work when you're not at home, it would work when

you're away from a good wi-fi connection. so essentially, everybody could be, like, on the train or walking down the street not knowing where the road is because, you know, they're plague a video game at the same time. playing a video game at the same time. ashley: yeah. what could go wrong? [laughter] lauren: i would never be lost, actually. i'd have uninstant direction. lauren, make a right, because with i me over in where i'm going. [laughter] ashley: very good. all right, let's take a look at the big board if we can. look, it's a very muted opening, down 18 points on the dow, even less than pun-tenth of a -- one-tenth of a percent. on the upside, merck, procter & gamble, coca-cola, verizon, visa. all very familiar names,s up anywhere from .8 to more than 1%. take a look at the s&p 500 winners. gm is on there, csx, the train people up more than 2%. gm up more than 2%, by the way. philip morris up 1.75%. and take a look at the nasdaq winners, always struggle when

the treasury yields get higher. again, netflix up there. we talked about netflix with mark mahaney up. 33%, pepsi -- 1 .33%. coming up, israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu warning of the long war ahead. president biden says israel needs to abide by the rules. roll tape. >> president netanyahu and i discussed again yesterday the critical need for israel to operate by the laws of war. that means protecting civilians in combats as best as they can. the people of gaza urgently need food, water and medicine. ashley: we'll talk to the spokesperson for israeli prime minister netanyahu coming up. also a pro-hamas -- was charged after snatching an israeli flag from a new york city college student at a rally near campus. that victim is here to tell us his story. also fed chair powell says inflation is too high so,

question is, how do we bring with it down? economist peter morici will take that on next. ♪

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♪ ♪ ashley: just wanted to show you some of these pictures. you're looking at the capital of yemen. anti-israel protests currently taking place there. we've been following all of this. we're going to keep you updated through the show. hamas has called for another day of rage against israel. that is what is going on in yemen right now. okay, switching gears, federal reserve chairman jerome powell says inflation simply still too high. gerri willis is here now. when he says that, does that mean we're going to see more rate increases? >> reporter: well, he's not

promising that now, no. he's been echoing comments from his fellow federal reserve colleagues. chairman powell praised what he termed clear progress in taming inflation but, look, he stopped short of declaring an end to rate hike, as you mentioned. although he took a victory lap, the fed chief says he is still committed to achieving the fed's long-term inflation target. listen. >> we cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist or where inflation will settle over coming quarters. while the path is likely to be bumpy and take some time, my colleagues and i have united in our commitment to bring down inflation sustainably to 2%. >> reporter: in prepared comments, powell said the committee is proceeding carefully and that, quote, incoming data over recent months shows yoon going process. -- ongoing process. many taking those sentiments to mean that no rate hike is planned for the central bank's october 31st-november 1st meeting. in fact, many now saying that an

escalation in long-term interest rates over the past month, hey, it's doing the fed's job for them. we've been talking about it this morning, the 10-year treasury closing in on 5%. that is a 16-year high. rates higher. the fed chairman recognized clouds on the horizon including escalating federal debt which sits at $33.665 trillion as of just a few moments ago. listen. >> all i can say is we know that we're on an unsustainable path fiscally. it's not that the level of the debt is unsustainable, it's not, t the path we're on is unsustainable, and we'll have to get off that path soon e rather than later. >> reporter: the fed chair also gave props to regional banks currently urn pressure in the markets because of rapid spikes in interest rates, describing those banks as an enormously important part of our banking system. ash, baqubah to -- back to you. ashley: gerri, thank you very much. now want you to take a look at this op-ed. it's titled stocks and homes are

still rising because buyers think inflation will stay high. guess who wrote that? peter morici. guess what? he's here now. good morning, peter. explain to me what you're saying here. people just believe inflation is higher so they know they're going to pay for? >> well, absolutely. the conference board does a survey of households, consumers every month, and the expected inflation rate over the next 12 months is 5.7%. the folks in michigan that do the consumer outlook and at the federal reserve in new york have numbers in the 3s. if you add them all together, you're up over 4%. to say that the inflation expectations is anchored is silly. if they are anchored, they're anchored in double 2%. my feeling is this makes it easier to take a 7% mortgage although the number of homes being sold is down at the resale level, the prices are being sustained and raising again. why is that? people expect prices to go up. they expect wages to go up.

ashley: what about the fed, peter? you know, should we give any credit to the fed? because, yes, or they raised rates to this level, but the economy has remained for the most part resilient, or is that changing? >> well, the resilience of the economy largely has to do with consumer spending, and we still have about a trillion dollars in the hangover savings from the pandemic, money that wasn't spent. wells fargo has done a very good analysis of that. and that probably isn't going to run out until the first quarter of next year. so the recession is coming, but it's just coming later. for example, wells fargo has a mild recession the second and third quarters of next year. the thing about it is this slow-walking on inflation has long-term consequences. in the short term, it's much harder to raise money, for example, for start-ups right now with these high rates and so so forth. the longer you take to curb inflation, the more you have a problem of it baking in so you

can't get rid of it at all, and the longer the period where you're not investing. look at what's happening to new home construction because of this. even after you've tamed inflation, you will have a smaller supply of homes down the road for the next fed chairman to deal with, with the next round of inflation because you took so long. really this is kind of like having a bad fever. the only way to knock it out is to knock it out. not this notion that the you can may games. i mean, after all, when was the last soft landing you lived through? ashley: yeah, good point. >> i'm 74, and we haven't had one in my lifetime. [laughter] ashley: very quickly, peter, the economy, it has gotten a boost, has it not, from defense spending? we've got two wars going on in ukraine and israel. is that enough to help offset bidenomics? >> no, because essentially the problem with bidenomics is not enough demand; rather, too much spending and too much inflation. the reality is we need to help

the ukraine, we need to help israel, we need to strengthen our border, all the things that joe biden wants to do. but we spend too much money on social programs, and that has to stop if we're going to be able to afford to do these other things or we're going to have continuing inflation. you know chairman powell if enables inflation, but it really tarts in the west wing of the -- starts in the west wing of the white house. ashley: yeah, spending, spending, spending. >> as he alluded to, our unsustainable fiscal path. he knows the problem. he's a good diagnostician, he just doesn't want to do the surgery. [laughter] ashley: right. he does not. we'll have to leave it there. as always, peter, terrific stuff this morning, thank you for joining us. >> take care. it's nice to be with you. ashley: thank you. same here. it's not too late, by the way, to be on the show today. don't forget to send in your friday feedback. e-mail your questions, comments, critiques, whatever you like to varneyviewersfox.com. and then there's this, a new report from the manhattan

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golo has been more sustainable. i can fit it into family life, i can make meals that the whole family will enjoy. it just works in everyday life as a mom. ♪ ♪ ashley: cities and states across the u.s. are looking to establish some sort of reparations program. a new study estimates how much a nationwide reparations plan would cost taxpayers, and i can promise you, it's eye-watering. kelly o'grady joins me now. all right, kelly, what exactly are we looking at? >> reporter: well, ashley, it would be trillions and trillions, likely of taxpayer dollars. i mean, you've seen this push for reparations explode especially in liberal cities and states over the past year or so. but i want the triangulate that number referenced in the new study. the manhattan the institute says it could cost $15 trillion to close the wealth gap between black and white americans, and

the study found that over 30 million black americans could actually with eligible for reparations. and hen you look at a number of different factors like housing, land and depending on the size of the check, it could be less than that number, but it could also be trillions more than that 15 number. and, by the way, that's just across the nation. there are some states and cities that are considering their own individual programs, roughly two dozen cities and counties right now are looking at implementing something like that, a couple have actually already done a number of trials. most notable on that map was california. there's a task force that made recommendations going back to june. i reached out to the governor, there's no word yet on when we could see legislation, and that's partly because voters actually don't want these massive cash payments, ashley. there's a, c-berkeley poll -- uc-berkeley poll shows 59% of voters don't support cash payments for reparations. there's also the reality that

most nonblack americans came here after slavery was abolished, and so there's a frustration of, okay, why would they have to pay for something like that? you're probably wondering where does the white house stand? president biden has received a lot of pressure from his democratic creeings, but as of -- colleagues, but as of now, he's punted to congress. ashley: kelly, interesting stuff. some very big numbers there, thank you so much. quick check of the markets, we've been down across the board but modestly so as you can see. the dow off about two-tenths of a percent, same story on the s&p and the nasdaq, down a third of a percent. all right. still ahead we have tammy bruce, presidential candidate and former vice president mike pence as we take a look at the treasury yield, steve hilton and jason chaffetz. the 10 a.m. hour of "varney & company,"s lots to talk about, coming up next. ♪ ♪

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