liz: you're ahead of market strategy you look at what the fed might do, the fed's favorite inflation gauge, the pce. we'll be watching, reporting on that, it may affect the final hour of trade. what do you expect for the markets toward the end of the year? >> i think the fed is done hiking. we know inflation is a challenge on a number of fronts but i think interest rates being high are restrictive enough to have the impact that it wants on the economy because no one wants recession. the fed doesn't want a recession. it is a by-product of constraining inflation but we're on a tangible path back towards 2%. when i've been telling clients lean into quality. [closing bell rings] >> matt, great to have you. matt or the ton. torma tell's ceo joins us for a breakdown on earnings. much more on the markets, see you tomorrow. ♪. larry: hello, folks, welcome to

"kudlow," i'm larry kudlow. all right day 20 of the barbaric hamas hezbollah iranian war on israel. let's go to directly to our reporter on the ground greg palkot who is our senior foreign affairs correspondent. greg, what can you tell us? yesterday was almost like a full invasion. what's going on today? >> reporter: well there is a lot of movement and a lot of different fronts here, larry, signs that the next stage in this war is definitely approaching. overnight in the past night the most aggressive ground incursion we've seen yet by the israeli military in the last few weeks. tanks and troop carriers crossing into northern gaza. less than a mile, just for a few hours but they were hitting hamas militant firing positions, ambush sites, what they said is preparing the battlefield for what appears to be that major land invasion. this as the airstrikes by israel into gaza continue. some targeted bombing runs hitting hamas militant leaders.

leaving a vast scene of destruction, landscape, masking well over 200 hostages still held by hamas but a growing humanitarian crisis threatening civilians there. here in northern israel, larry, we've been watching escalating skirmishes between the israeli military, lebanon-based, iran-backed hezbollah militants. they are launching deeper strikes into lebanon. military, civilians among the dead here. a telling picture recently released, a meeting in beirut, lebanon between a top hamas official, the leader of another militant group and the head of hezbollah, hassan nasrallah. behind them, pictures of pass and present leaders, their benefactor, iran. larry, u.s. bases in both iraq and syria have been targeted by iran-backed militias. pentagon confirming 21 american

troops have been injured in the last week. reinforcement on the way, a region in turmoil. back to you. larry: you know, greg palkot, thank you for that as always. i just wish more attention was paid to the fact, not only did 30 some americans were killed in the original hamas attack, massacre but americans are getting injured as they're firing on us. they're firing on u.s. mill at military asset and americans are getting injured. god bless, so far no deaths have been reported. there are injuries. these are war actions. >> reporter: no, absolutely. the u.s. is certainly a target. as you noted there were deaths on that terrible october 7th. there are hostages held. we believe something like 11, 12. there are 600 americans remaining in gaza, palestinian americans, who still haven't gotten out. through this region the talk is of the possibility according to the pentagon of some kind of massive evacuation from israel,

lebanon, elsewhere, if things really heat up. so those are the many, many dimensions you're looking at right now, larry. larry: greg palkot, thank you ever so much. please be safe. we appreciate your reporting very much. >> reporter: thank you. larry: in just a few moments senator jd smith, jd vance i'm sorry. senator jd vance is coming on. we had an interview just a few moments ago. let me say a couple things here in my riff. why is it president biden, secretary of state antony blinken and white house spokesman john kirby, day in and day out continue the fiction that iran has no direct involvement with the terrorists in hamas or for that matter islamic jihad or for that matter hezbollah but for the barbaric of invasion of israel on october 7th? why do they maintain this fiction, why do they maintain this lie? look it, front page of "the wall street journal." larry: us exclusive news story, headline, hamas fighters trained

in iran before the october 7th attacks. the subheader, roughly 500 palestinian militants got specialized combat instruction at iranian facilities as recently as september. a long carefully constructed news article, a third of the way in, is this quote, before the war iran directly assisted hamas with money, training, weapons, technological know how, said rear admiral daniel hagari. the military chief spokesman in israel. the admiral says even now iran is helping hamas with intelligence end quote. right after the october 7th, catastrophe "the wall street journal" ran a story with the headline, iran helped plot attack on israel over several weeks. by the way the "washington post" corroborated that story the next day. now to be fair this morning's "wall street journal" story quotes an air force, u.s. air force general who maintains the fiction that there is no direct connection between the hamas

attacks on iran but looking at this, other news reports, news reports, mind you, not just editorials, news reports i think the u.s. government is making a big mistake denying iran's direct involvement. this is starting to have a vietnam feel to it. remember those days when democratic and republican administrations lied to the american public about the extent of u.s. involvement in the vietnamese war. nowedly from a political standpoint americans by huge majority support the israeli cause and they have an enormous distrust of iran. so i don't understand the political judgment much less the highly flawed military judgment. now as we know nor nearly three years president biden tried to negotiate a nuclear deal with iran. he inherited this stupidity from president obama. obama's deal would never have passed the senate. so they put it together through the united nations instead and they attached u.n. security

council sanctions on that misbegotten deal. lately however when the u.n. ballistic missile sanctions expired last week they were not even snapped back. so now even those unenforced sanctions have essentially expired but the biden administration has also chosen not to enforce the economic sanctions that were put in place by the trump administration. those economic and energy sanctions that were strictly implemented by mr. trump and his administration basically bankrupted iran. so when trump took out iran's top military man soleimani, the iranians didn't do anything because they were broke. today as we all know, and as the facts show, iran is flushing with energy and foreign exchange reserves that they have used to finance hamas and other terrorist groups. indeed before the october 7th blow-up biden was trying to give iran even more cash. essentially the key point i

suppose is to acknowledge iran's direct role in training and financing the terrorist attacks against israel and the united states. to do that would require an acknowledgement from biden that his iranian policy of appeasement has gone wrong, very wrong, from the very beginning. apparently he doesn't want to make that acknowledgement. so he and his spokespeople have come up with this fiction which at best is a semantic and at worst is an outright lie. that iran had no direct involvement in israel, american massacres, you can parse words but you can't parse the truth. iran is unappeasable. without the deterrent iran will continue as the largest state sponsor of terrorism. the bidens have got to understand this hard fact. iran will never change. it will never change its ways, nor will its terrorist puppets and if president biden wants to show americans and the rest of the world that he has figured

this out, then he must at a bare minimum reinstate the economic and energy sanctions of the trump years, and the quickest way i can think to do that would simply be to interdict or impound an iranian ship on the high seas that might be carrying oil or weapons or anything else forbidden under those sanctions. those sanctions were imposed legislatively by the u.s. congress and enforced by the trump administration. to be real simple, i call it stop a ship. if you do, you will send a message. go back to the trump model. a change of biden's policies towards iran that is honest and transparent reappraisal of the failure, well that is the best thing biden can do to protect israel and the united states and then just, please, quit lying to us, all right? now, as i said earlier, just a few moments ago i spoke with

senator jd vance of ohio about all of this and more. please take a listen. senator jd vance, welcome back to the show, sir. >> thanks, larry. thanks for having me. larry: well it's our pleasure. just let me begin with some of your news. you and a handful of other senators want a different kind of supplemental to fund foreign assistance. you want a stand-alone for israel. i believe your number is $14 billion. can you tell us about this plan and is this going to entail a fight with senator mcconnell who wants the big package preposed by joe biden? >> well, it doesn't really have to entail a fight because the majority of the republican conference, larry would like to separate the packages. let me set the table here. we have $14 billion on the desk for israel. i support it, 99% of my colleagues in the united states

senate support it. it is virtually you unanimous. why not have separate debates to separate the packages? what is biden trying to do knowing israel aid is popular, trying to use it as a figure leaf to shove an open boards proposal down our throats. if you look at border funding of the supplemental. has nothing to do with border security. you're basically facilitating inmigration of illegal migrants and transporting them all across the country. we're funding it. that is what the supplemental does. why would we allow joe biden pretend he is helping israel when all he is doing furthering open the southern border? it is bad politics, it is bad policy and most republicans won't stand for it. larry: just on that, senator, i want to come back to israel in just a second, just on that border point that is so important, first it is one of the most important issues right now in the country.

in fact a lot of polls as you may no, after you get past economy and inflation where "bidenomics" is in the mid 20% approval, something like that, you really come to the border and as i understand reading some of the stuff published by the white house it is basically about a billion dollars but it would enhance catch-and-release and it would reduce the border patrol people to like babysitters and paper pushers. it wouldn't do a single thing to close the border, including, sir, to close the border, to people from countries that could be potential terrorists? >> well that's exactly right, larry, and i think that polling shows the wisdom of american people because the border is a huge crisis. talking about 100,000 people dying of fentanyl. we're at the biggest risk of a terrorist attack, larry, we had in this country for 20 years. why? because many of the people from the terrorist watch list have

come across the border already and many more would like to come. they know the american southern border is the rapid way to come into it, the express ticket into america if you're a terrorist and every one knows it. why would the republican senate consent to combining aid to israel with billions of dollars that will just transport illegal migrants from the southern border to ohio, to pennsylvania, to michigan, all across the country? it doesn't make an ounce of sense especially when we know there are members of hamas trying to get through that border. this is really an insane policy, larry. i recognize that a lot of my colleagues would like to support our ally israel. i think we should support our ally too but we shouldn't let that support be used as a fig leaf for disasterous biden policies. larry: how much of the aid can be done, larry? >> it has to lay at the senate for a day.

there is a world if democrats don't object to this we could get voted on monday. we'll see how many colleagues of are willing to put their money where their mouth is f they think is bipartisan support for lending to israel this should pub it through. some democrats don't want to give away political leverage will try to force a combined vote on the package so they will stop us. we are trying to throw it out there to see what people do. if they actually believe in supporting our allies across the world, this is an opportunity to do it but i don't think that is what is going on. larry: are you pretty happy with speaker mike johnson who is on the same page as you on this and probably other issues? >> i'm very happy with speaker johnson, larry. a lot of people talk about how this was messy and chaotic. sometimes democracy is messy and chaotic. that is a good tinge, not a bad thing. i think this all resulted in a speaker obviously is a consensus choice. not a single dissenting voice among house republicans. i'm thrilled we have a new

speaker. our job as republican minority in the united states senate is not to undercut the new speaker. he has negotiations, he has to do with the president of the united states. he has his on set of policies we'll pay agree 99% of the time. let's facilitate the new speaker being successful, not undercut him. i think dividing these packages is a way to do exactly that. larry: let me come back to the israeli, the war itself, senator vance, president biden, secretary of state antony blinken, kirby, john kirby, the spokesman, all keep telling us there's no direct iranian involvement in this barbaric hamas invasion. okay, they keep maintaining that. now, this morning i'm sure you saw it, front page, "wall street journal," the story is, essentially, 500 terrorists were trained in iran. islamic jihad, hamas, 500 of them were trained in iran just

weeks before the invasion itself, and this comes after another "wall street journal" story and a "washington post" story, probably several weeks ago now, that suggested iran was working hand-in-glove with hamas for the last two years, planning and financing this invasion. i want to read you israel's top military spokesman. his name is rear admiral daniel hagari, before the war, i will quote directly, before the war iran directly assisted hamas with money, training, weapons, and technological know how. who is biden kidding kidding thn wasn't directly involved, i asked you who he is kidding? >> i think he is kidding himself, larry. we know iran is the biggest state sponsor of terrorism in the entire world. they have been directly supportive of hamas not just the last couple month but the last few years. this is why it is crazy for the biden administration to hand over billions of dollars to the

iranians knowing that a big chunk of that is going to be used to state sponsor terrorism. the biden folks have this line that doesn't make any sense. i know you're a smart guy when it comes to finance, larry, well they say, that six billion dollars will not be used for terrorism. it will only be used for humanitarian assistance. money is fungible. if you give somebody a dollar for humanitarian assistance that frees up resources they can devote to terrorism. it doesn't pass the smell test. let's stop funding iran especially at a moment we know that they're supporting terrorism, not just against our allies, larry, but most importantly against us. larry: so that brings me to my last pint, you know, the way to do this right now is to enforce the sanctions which have gone unenforced for almost three years. that includes by the way a failure for a snapback of the u.n. sanctions deal on ballistic missiles but look it, i call it stop a ship. if you want to send a message to iran, all right, if you want to

show some deterrents instead of appeasement, why not look, abide any iranian ship carrying a cargo of oil that is going to be sold to china or maybe drones that might be sold to russia or whatever it is, they're not supposed to do that under the sanctions. we had them bankrupted in the trump years. now they're flush with $80 billion in oil and foreign exchange reserves. why not stop a ship, senator vance? why don't you, get a bipartisan bill through congress, through the senate or some darn thing to make the bidens enforce the sanctions because we all know that iran is the master puppeteer here? >> well, larry look you're exactly right we need to enforce the sanctions and and there are some pieces of legislation working through the senate and the house that would do exactly that. by the way while we're talking about sanctions, larry, let's not forget our energy policy is actively enriching iranians. if we drilled more oil, refined

more oil in our own country we wouldn't be funding the iranian state sponsor of terrorism regime. with the one hand joe biden says he wants to stop the iranians from sponsoring terrorism. with the other hand he pursues a energy policy makes americans poor and makes iranian mullahs richer. doesn't make a ounce of sense. the biggest thing we can do to cut off iran's power is make ourselves energy dominance. why one of the reasons president trump need to be become president inn 2024 and we need to become energy independence and stop biden's war on america's enemy. it is not just a war against consumers but a war for american enemies. larry: senator vance, thank you very much. >> see ya, that was jd vance for you. coming up on kudlow anti-semitic

hate crimes should get peach h people busted and thrown in jail. so why hasn't president bite done that already? we'll talk about it with newt gingrich next up onmake "kudlow." ♪. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that- i need a breakthrough card. like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more. plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases. and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas- a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours. this isn't just freight. these aren't just shipments. they're promises. promises of all shapes and sizes.

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hi, i'm norma, and i lost 53 pounds on golo. when i started golo, i expected to plateau like i had so many other times.

i was surprised that sticking to the golo plan and taking release, the weight just kept coming off. (soft music) hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. so i decided to go with golo and it's changed my life. when i first started golo and taking release, my cravings, they went away. and i was so surprised. you feel that your body is working and functioning the way it should be and you feel energized. golo has improved my life in so many ways. i'm able to stand and actually make dinner.

i'm able to clean my house. i'm able to do just simple tasks that a lot of people call simple, but when you're extremely heavy they're not so simple. golo is real and when you take release and follow the plan, it works. ♪. larry: you know i don't really get this story at all. why aren't people being busted and thrown into jail for

anti-semitic hate crimes? that is what's happened in other minority groups that have been attacked, for example? why hasn't biden done this already? he don't even hardly talk about it. joining me to talk about it, this incredible wave of anti-semitism is our great friend newt gingrich, former speaker of the house, fox news contributor, author of the march to the house majority. the republican revolution. yesterday at cooper union in downtown new york there was a palestinian, palestinian rally and they found out some jewish kids in the library, starting to march against it, the jewish kids had to try to lock the doors and save themselves. washington, d.c. yesterday, or the day before, george washington university, they had all kinds of things projected on walls, i don't know if it was exactly graffiti or pictures, whatever, you see this

we all looked what they have done at yale and harvard and northwestern and these other places, the point is, newt, these are hate crimes. you have said that. why aren't the administration acting on this? >> well, look, i think it's easy to underestimate the depth of the anti-israeli and anti-semitic attitudes that are now at the heart of the democratic party and the heart of the biden administration. the fact is supposedly 100 people in the white house went to a meeting to deal with their anxieties about what's happening, not to deal with anger about 40 babies being killed, babes being beheaded, not anger with women being raped and dragged through the streets dead with people spitting on them, not to deal with anger about 1400 innocent people being slaughtered, oh, no, their

anxieties, watch the news media, part of the same anti-israel, anti-semitic process. now we suddenly decided that palestinians who are being hurt only because hamas uses them as a shield, i mean this war could end this evening if hamas would surrender but hamas isn't going to surrender and hamas doesn't mind palestinians being killed as long as they are able to put them up on youtube or on tiktok or on some other device to use them for propaganda. here in the united states, first of all, anybody who is here who is not a citizen, who is participating in anti-semitic rallies should be deported. they should lose green cards or student visas, they should be gone. second, we should enforce the law which already exists which requires all these major universities to publicly state where their funding comes from because i think between the chinese and various elements like the iranians, we would be shocked at the depth of

penetration in our system. the congress right now should be actively investigating the fact that there are at least four iranian agents working in the defense and state department, literally, people who are iranian agents, the key person making policy under obama, turned out to be an iranian agent. it is maddening how much we have allowed people who want to destroy our way of life. and remember, "death to america" and death to israel aren't just slogans. that is the goal of the iranian dictatorship, we're sitting passively, and though we ignored stalin, we ignored the soviet union and we've been unwilling to deal with the reality of coming nist penetration. that is where we are today. larry: you know, newt, this justice department, merrick garland, and his fbi have gone after pro-life catholics, they have gone after parents who were worried about sex changes among five or six or

seven-year-olds, go to pta meetings, they will not go, where are they at these anti-semitic rallies for example, or gatherings? why aren't they monitoring this? why aren't they announcing they are going to monitor this? the thing that blows me away nothing has been said about it. i mean the silence here is absolutely deafening and it is so troubling? >> well, look, let's be honest, these people are committed to an anti-american value system, they're committed to being anti-christian and anti-jewish. they're committed to being anti-white. this runs all the way through the biden administration and now runs through much of the democratic party and it is a huge problem. of course the campuses which we're going to basically have to recapture, are currently occupied by people who hate america, professors who say that it is great the jews are being

killed. why aren't those professors summarily fired? the whole range of places here, we have lost the capacity to stand up for ourselves and to draw a line in the sand and to mean it. and by the way, in the we don't even defend americans overseas. the iranians have been had their various proxies shooting at us for weeks. the hamas killed 32 americans at least with 10 missing. where's the punishment? where are the tomahawk missiles? where is the effort to go right after them? you know the answer isn't that we now had both biden and the secretary of state say we'll hold them accountable. larry: what does that mean? >> the morning i see a iranian refinery blow up, the morning i take your ship one step further, the morning i see us impound every iranian ship at sea, then i begin to think we're holding them accountable. until then this is a gutless administration which lies to everybody and which is

tolerating a level of anti-american and anti-israeli behavior that is unthinkable. larry: yes, sir. former speaker newt gingrich, thank you, sir, appreciate it very much. spot on. folks coming up here, next block, senator chuck grassley says, listen to this, grassley has written a letter to the justice department saying there were 40 fbi sources, fbi sources that gave criminal information on the biden scandals and the justice department squashed them as quote foreign disinformation. really? 40 fbi sources, foreign disinformation. anyway we'll talk about it with distinguished george washington university law professor jonathan turley. then plus top line gdp looked pretty strong today but under the hood there is some very serious problems on the horizon. stocks got crushed i might add. anyway we got and all-star panel, liz peek, brian brenberg, jason trennert, all when kudlow

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♪. larry: all right, another problem out there, senator chuck grassley says, listen to this, folks, there were 40 fbi sources, these are fbi sources, 40 of them, gave criminal information on the bidens that the justice department is apparently trying to squash as quote, foreign disinformation. really, foreign disinformation? all right. joining me now is jonathan turley, george washington university law professor, constitutional lawyer, fox news contributor, all around brilliant person. jonathan, now grassley, you know, if you ever work up on the hill or spend anytime up there, you know not to mess with chuck grassley, that is point number one. point number two, he wrote this letter, and he wants a response in the next couple weeks but jonathan, i guess what's new here is 40 fbi, these are the

1023s, 40 sources were squashed, you tell me what does this mean? >> -- letter so important we have to find out what it does mean. we have to find out what these sources were and why they weren't pursued. we've seen this movie before. this is what happened with the hunter biden laptop. we now know that the biden campaign was behind pushing that narrative that the laptop was russian disinformation. they got all of these former intelligence officials to sign off on it. that was debunked. it was debunked fairly quickly by american intelligence. there is no indication this is russian disinformation. so the question is, was this that same narrative? was this the same phenomenon affecting the fbi? the fact, larry, it is not a career enhancing move to investigate a sitting president or vice president and when people don't want to do the right thing, they will try to

find any reason not to do it and russian disinformation in the past has been that thing. larry: well i tell you, i will just read real quick from brooke singman, fox digital, jonathan, grassley learned that an fbi task force within the washington field office sought to and in some cases successfully shut down reporting and information from their sources, these are fbi sources, by falsely discrediting the information as foreign disinformation. that caused investigative activity to cease. i mean, this is not good, jonathan, and i think needs to be attended to immediately. >> well the real concerning aspect of the grassley letter are all of these usual suspects. that office in the past has been the choke point in terms of investigations of the bidens. you have got to keep in mind,

the bidens have been known for influence peddling for decades. they really took this favorite form of corruption to a new level so this is really concerning particularly because of the cast of players involved. larry: you know, the other thing grassley points out in here, other fbi field offices did not necessarily participate in squashing this information. it was the washington one that seemed to be the leader. now we've had trouble with this crowd before. i don't care whether you're left or right but you know, you want them to be straight and so many people have argued it's the washington office that has to be completely changed, the top five or seven levels, you know more about this stuff than i do but it is like here they go again. >> the thing people need to realize it is very easy to quash investigations in a government of this size. we saw it with the whistle-blowers they never really saw the hand pulling the

levers. all they knew they believed they had credible case against hunter biden for very serious crimes and the lights kept on getting shut off and this follows that pattern. it doesn't mean that all of these 40 sources were supported and would have been moved upon but they form a pattern or a mosaic and you would think that merrick garland would say, finally, you know what? let's be transparent. let's answer these questions, so that the public can regain some trust in the fbi. larry: and you know, among other things, jonathan, let's get to the bottom of this business. i think that is what the public would like. >> right. larry: jonathan turley, thank you, sir, appreciate it very much as always. >> thanks, larry. larry: all right, folks we are going to pivot with the speed of light. we'll talk about today's gdp report, what was it, 4.9%? almost 5%. we have liz peek, syndicated columnist and fox news contributor. we have jason trennert chairman

of and brian brenberg host of "the big money show" right here on fox business. okay, my lickety-split fast top line number, big number. under the hood, lots of problems for the future numbers. liz peek, i will let you start. >> big number, by the way with a two trillion dollar deficit running it should be a big number. what's under the hood is continued pretty high level of inflation, lower real disposable income for i think the third month in a row which does not auger well for consumer spending. that is really what we're looking for going forward. by the way, finally, a big, big increase in government spending as we've seen the last couple months and that is something that is really pulling, pushing this economy forward. larry: a third of the increase by the way for this number was from inventory accumulation, about a third of it. that is not sustainable. but jason, you know, your guy dan clifton had been writing,

because of the debt ceiling debate where they had to postpone the final debt ceiling authorization, for an increase, the treasury ran down the treasury cash balances, i don't know, don't want to get too much into that, kind of like the federal reserve. the treasury can create money in the short run. they basically injected five or $600 billion into the economy, 5 or $600 billion into the economy late last spring which i think went right into consumer spending in the third quarter. it is phony, almost like a hoax. >> you had a double-barreled host of stimulus after silicon valley bank failed. the fed balance sheet increased 400 billion in three weeks after silicon valley bank failed. because you were not issuing new treasurys you drew down all the cash reserves of the treasury department which is another 600 billion. it is not surprising in a way that you have strong growth. i would say though, avoiding a recession at all costs which seems to be what janet yellen

and every one else in the administration wants to do has a cost and that cost is inflation and that's why i am of the view this is going to be harder, it will be harder to put the gene any back in the bottle than perhaps the fed and others in markets think. that inflation will be more structural moving forward because we are running deficits of 5 1/2% of gdp. larry: pce core deflator, core, ha, ha, up 3.9%. you're still running 3, 4% inflation. brian brenberg, president biden, treasury yellen says our problems are solved. >> they're not supply-siders, that's not the problem. they look at number, oh, my goodness, 4.9%, it is built on deficit and debt spending, it is not income driven. real incomes are not rising. people are dipping into their savings. that is what they can feel. they can know, say at a high level, the economy grew but at individual level people say i know what i'm paying for things

and, i know where i got the money. i don't like where i'm going for the money right now. this summer was a blowout spending summer but it was a services spending summer. larry: leisure, leisure. >> that is buy now, pay later or maybe pay never. larry: i think 3 percentage points go to taylor swift concerts. >> you would know, larry. you are a fan. >> i'm only one that has not been to the taylor swift concerts. now she is hooked up to a football player of one of the teams i hate the most so i'm not going to go. if you take out enough categories of inflation, you have low inflation. that is what paul krugman did. i have a great pal of mine, i will not maim his name, i'm responsible for the editorial part of this, i want you to take out everything but food and energy. leave food and energy in, take out everything else in the inflation index. so in the third quarter that was

up 6.6% at an annual rate. my logic is very simple here, food and energy is what people buy. gasoline, groceries, okay? 6.6% of the annual rate. people should do this exercise. take out every other bloody thing. beat them at their own game. [laughter] >> i think that's right. frankly if you added in housing it would be -- larry: not going to touch that. >> i know, i know. larry: kills my model. [laughter]. >> those are the things that people feel. that's what they're reacting to. larry: yes. >> it has impact on consumer sentiment. has impact on spending i think going forward. i mean some of the best economists are own wall street say we're at a turning point. you can see it in employment data, in the auto delinquencies, delinquencies on consumer debt we're really getting to the end of this big consumer bubble you were just talking about. >> yep. >> consumers cannot go on spending forever. the savings rate came down to three eight in this last quarter. way lower than it was earlier in

the year. it can't go on forever. larry: i would say this, you still have inverted yield curve. it has been inverted for a while. that suggests the new york fed model, 60% chance of recession next year. still have 18 straight months of declining index of leading indicators. >> that was down big. larry: i wouldn't diss that. jason, stocks battled itself today, wound up down again. the nasdaq is in a very, very mean correction. the mortgage rate is running over 8%. >> i think the best leading indicator as we talked about is profits. profits are lower this year than they were last year. what is surprising is that the employment picture has held up well. i think that explains to a certain extent why consumer spending has been better but there is only so long companies are going to hoard workers or hoard labor after a period of finding it difficult to find them before they say, gee, we have to take care of our own profits. to me that is the best leading indicator of all.

mother's milk of economic growth. larry: mother's milk of stocks, lifeblood of the economy. brian, last word, jason is on this. business investment fell again. >> bingo. larry: business investment is down two of the last three quarters. the bidens like that because they hate business, so why not crush it. but brian brenberg i always thought it was business success that created the which are with all for jobs and economy and consumer spending? >> the problem we have the cart before the horse big time right now. the horse is saying i don't want to pull anymore, i'm pulling back. i'm out. i don't like this environment. you can go on clapping for about 4.9% but you better enjoy it now. as the consumer runs out of steam, businesses already said i'm out until i get a policy that actually works for us. it is not happening under biden right now. larry: absolutely right. i go back to my model, take everything out of the price index. just leave in food and energy, up 6.6% at an annual rate. that is problem. liz peek, jason trennert, brian

brenberg. folks catch brian big money show 1:00 p.m. eastern on fox business. my fav. coming up stocks got whacked today. the small business russell 2000 is getting clobbered. the nasdaq tech thing is gets clobbered. so we will bring in mr. wonderful, kevin o'leary, see what he shays about all of this stuff. stay right here. i am kudlow. take out everything. just leave in food and energy. it is a disaster. ♪. and - ahoy! it's the explorer! each helping to protect their money with chase. woah, a lost card isn't keeping this thrill seeker down. lost her card, not the vibe. the soul searcher, is finding his identity, and helping to protect it. hey! oh yeah, the explorer! she's looking to dive deeper... all while chase looks out for her. because these friends have chase. alerts that help check. tools that help protect. one bank that puts you in control. chase. make more of what's yours. ♪

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♪. larry: joining us mr. wonderful, "shark tank" investor kevin o'leary. kevin, the small business russell 2000 down 17 1/2%. the nasdaq is now, techie nasdaq is down 12% and business investment in gdp has fallen in two of the last three quarters. how do we get out of this mess? >> it is a combination of multiple things, here, larry. confidence in the ceo suite, talk about business investment whether large or small businesses. people are getting nervous because that inflation number is nasty. it just won't go down. we know the fed wants 2%. it is well above three, very hot print today as you talked about earlier. i mean very hot print. so the idea that they will be lowering rates any time soon

forget about it, on top of that, much longer at these levels in 5 1/2%, or more likely in december would be a 25 basis point rate hike which is back on the table. i think before this is all over, if inflation stays stubborn, north of three, we'll get to a 6% terminal rate. that is why you're seeing the russell 2000 taking the hit because small businesses are financed by regional banks that can't take these rate hikes. so all of this is interlinked together, larry. it all fits together in this rather dramatic puzzle and right now the number one leading attribute is inflation. it just won't go away. larry: all right. i had to have a kevin o'leary fix on a day like today. i had to have it. there you are. when are you coming on set, come back to new york, sit on set with me, i will do ten minutes i promise. >> i'm in atlantic city, larry.

i'm so close to you, i can feel the love. still far away. larry: nothing but love, kevin o'leary the best of the best

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just two quick asked president biden. one, tell the truth about iran. number two, tell the truth about inflation. groceries and gasoline, up 6.6%, food and energy is the only thing that matters and then if you want real truth, you got to go to li