america it only makes sense in about half a dozen states. those so-called red states are getting the cash, well, if you're going to build a wind farm, you've got to the build it where the wind blows. shares of nexterra getting clobberedded, down 30% so far this year, and siemenses, their wind division which is the largest in all of europe is getting a bailout. that's right, a bailout. shouldn't this be organic demand? shouldn't we all want this? how about they need $16 billion? then, of course, there's the ev stocks. heavy been big underperformers in the last month or so, and then you have general motors saying, you know what? we're not going to try to build as many evs as we thought. the bottom line is it's just been a huge economic mistake, and i think we're paying a huge price for it. liz, the market wants to go up in your hour, which is rare. liz: well, charles, it just hit session highs. charles: yeah. liz: just now, so you keep

talking. [laughter] you know, we do have a tricky final hour of trade here as markets have reversed earlier losses. we are thousand in the green, but for the -- now in the green, but for the months the markets have dropped faster than the fall leaves. oh, yes, trigger the pall leaves. st it's a gimmick, we went with it. we're 59 minutes away from saying good-bye to october trade, and investors long the market are saying bring on november, it cannot come soon enough. the question is, will this last hour of trade make the picture more ghoulish than it already is for the month or provide an unexpected treat? this month the dow is pretty much the best looking of quite an ugly bunch. it has lost 1.33% followed by the s&p down 2.25% which is now in correction territory. the nasdaq's october performance, you could say it looks like a 3-week-old jack-o'-lantern, molding and falling in on itself, down nearly 3%, but the tech-heavy

index's loss is positively pretty when you superimpose the russell and the dow jones transports over it, down 6.8% for the russell, the small caps, and the transports getting clobbered, down 7%. ghosts in the form of a hawkish principal reserve, rising bond yields, soaring interest rate, the mideast turmoil and recession fears have investors selling energy, consumer discretionary or and, yes, tech shares over the past 31 days. it is about to get worse, or is it about to get better? economist and professor emeritus at nyu's stern school of business neuroyell rah bindny -- nouriel rah roubini makes his call on that, and the mistake the he says the federal reserve could make tomorrow when it reveals its next move in the interest rate hike cycle. until then though, earlier the dow was down, what, about 141 points, and much of it was due to cat looking more like a

mouse. caterpillar still down $14.79 right now or 6% on the session is. it is the worst dow performer after reporting an earnings beat. so why is the stock looking at the worst level since april of last year? the heavy a machinery maker's order backlog decreased during the third quarter by $1.9 billion to $28.1 billion, that's actually a level the ceo called still healthy, but mississippiers are basically saying, you know what? i'm selling first and looking into the details later. the nasdaq should be higher than it is right now or but china stocks are getting hammered by chinese economic data which show factory activity has fallen back into correction -- rather, contraction this month. pin duo due bow, jd and baidu, they are among the worst performers on the nasdaq 100. and we should check on vf corp., the parent of vans shoe, the north face, down 15% right now

to a 14-year low after the retailer missed profit forecasts and pulled both its annual profit and revenue forecasts due to consumer weakness. yet while the fresh october consumer confidence number dropped this morning, it came in better than expected. let's get right to the floor show, we turn to morgan stanley senior vice president jim lacamp and trader scott bauer. jim, can you make sense of this the here? we have three down months in a row for the dow and the s&p, and you start to ask yourself with, okay, should i be betting the farm on stocks? should i be buying selectively, or should i be saving this dry powder for the moment? >> so, liz, look, seasonally this is all playing out true to form. historically, september and early part of october are very weak, and you throw in august if you want to as well. and hen you get to that 6-month time frame between november and april, that's historically do

our time frame of year. but we've got issues, and we've got a a lot of lines in the sand that we need to overcome. first of all, the nasdaq and s&p both are sitting right at or below the 200-day moving average. the rally yesterday looked good, but there wasn't much volume. earnings beats are barely being rewarded, earnings misses are being massacred. we've got a new speaker of the house, is that going to be a budget battle in the fourth quarter? remember what happened in 2018 in the fourth quarter, we got walloped. so there's a lot of concerns out there. you mentioned the transports. i'll throw in the semiconductors. these are leading indices. they're both rolling over. so we don't see any animal spirits yet, and i'm going to wait for the whites of their eyes. i'm going to want to see some volume come into this market, some stocks gain some traction, some trends starting to develop, and we're not seeing any of these animal spirits out there yet. if they are out there, it's really rare. sort of california condor.

liz: oh, well, i thought those were coming back. let's hope they are. [laughter] scott, the one thing that has done really well, if you look over the month of october, is the vix, volatility over the past couple of months, up 35%. and that just makes you wonder, okay, that's interesting, that's a bet that the you have talked about in the past. but can you triangulate it to certain sectors that might start to look like they're the place for people to put their money? >> absolutely. and even though the vix, you know, really did just, you know, blow up to the upside, right? we saw it in '22, '23, it couldn't get past that level. so when we compare that to where we were earlier in the year last year with the 30 handle on it, yes, it absolutely exploded. but given all of the macro headwinds to this marketplace, i'm actually surprised it didn't go higher. now, volatility in the s&p 500 options still very elevated. but if i look at a particular

sector, liz, i do want to look at the semis. you guys were just talking about that, how bad it's been. and how much of a leading indicator it's been. yet if you look at volatility in the sector, volatility, at least option volatility, is not historically that expensive unless you're, you know, looking specifically at one of the earnings plays like an amd after the close or an apple. also the small caps which, the russell, which has been absolutely just shellacked, just beaten up, that to me is another opportunity where, you know or you're not seeing really increased volatility or volatility that's out of the norm. so if someone wanted to play in either of those spaces whether it would be to an upside or a downside move, i'm not seeing a ton of option premium there where ordinarily i'd want to be a seller if that premium was expensive, it's not that expensive right now. liz: okay. and, jim, when you're looking

over all at the picture, this has been the most, i guess, telegraphed recession since i've been doing business news for a couple of decades, and yet not here. people have been scared, sitting on the sidelines, and the markets have not been a complete disappointment. year to date everybody's still in the green here. and that makes me wonder what the hedge funds and the institutions are doing. are they going to get caught wrong-footed? >> they very well could. and typically, that does happen many time frames like these. but as we're, was just pointed out, the put premiums aren't really all that high. and while hedge funds and ctas were very, very short a couple week ago, that's come off the boil somewhat. when we look at semiconductors and other leading indicators like the russell, they're in a spot where maybe they could be bought at some point, but we're not seeing any action.

i think one of the reasons that these options prices aren't elevated right now is because people aren't directionally betting as much given that there's the treasury yields on the sidelines. you can get -- cash is kind of king on the sidelines right now. you get paid 5% or more just to sit and wait. and i think a lot of the money instead of making some sort of directional bet is saying, to hell with it, i can't figure this out, i'm just going to put my money in treasuries and get 5% on the short basis. now, treasury yields are something else. you mentioned recession indicators. the yield curve is resteepenning a little bit. that might be good, but this is a bearish steepening because the way it's steepening is that the long end has come up. that usually happens before a recession, so i think recession fears are legitimate, and we are likely going into a mild recession in the first quarter of the next year. liz: but you think the hedge funds are way too short, right? i mean, you've said that. >> yeah, they very well could

be, and we -- they tend to run in the herds this year. hay tend to really press -- they tend to really press their bets. but, look, there's a lot of excess liquidity that's been in the system, and i think that's one of the reasons that's kept the consumer afloat longer than you would think and, or that the metrics would suggest. and i think it's another reason why these hedge funds are getting clobbered this year, is they didn't recognize that there's a lot of excess money, infrastructure projects, government spending. that keeps us afloat, but it's a sugar high. and in the long run, it's not good for the economy. liz: scott, yes, the fed 2-day meeting began today. they are meeting at this very moment. tomorrow the, 2 p.m. eastern, they will make their announcement. it's more about what they project they will do, i guess until the end of the year and maybe into early 2024, because fed funds futures are at, like, 99% of no move, continued pause here. but the treasury market is still a serious issue here.

and tomorrow we're getting numbers about refunding. basically what that means is we'll find out the size of the treasury auctions that are out there and the durations that they are going to be auctioning. pleasure there is a problem here with supply and demand can. huge demand for treasuries and yet the supply needs to ramp up, or do i have that backwards? >> well, you know, what the fed has done, you know, and why they have to keep raising rates is because of flushing out and getting all of this liquidity into the marketplace, but there's no buyer, right? so one of two things has to happen, you know, the prices have to go down or the rates that the buyers are getting have to go up. and that's how the bond market works. prices go down, rates go up. so that is going to be so closely watched tomorrow, liz, and it's probably even more so than what the fed decision is. because, like you said, they're not going to do anything tomorrow. the fed's got a problem right now. they have boxed themselves into a corner because they said just

a couple meetings ago, they said they were going to raise rates again year. they're not going to do it tomorrow. they've got one meeting left for december 13th. i don't see how at this point he could even think about raising rates on december 13th. when you talk about what you guys were just talking about with all the consumer debt that is building up, the metric -- i don't want to look at gdp or any of that, i want to look at how the consumer is. liz: okay. >> the consumer has piled up more credit card debt than ever, auto delinquencies are at an all time high. he was got to recognize that even though that's not really part of the metrics they're watching, but they're in a conundrum because powell is not one that this typically will back off from what he said. but that's what they said just a couple meetings ago. liz and i know, jim, you think that this is, the fed is done for the year, yes? correct in. >> absolutely. if you look at the fed if funds futures, they suggest the highest probability there's no rate hike at all. and, in fact, by may you'll

start to see cuts. and i think that's the most likely scenario. look, this economy, credit is experiencing somewhat of a crunch. senior loan officer surveys are showing tightening lending standards the, less overall lending. we've got commercial real estate issues still going on, bankruptcies. and in addition to auto loan delinquencies, bankruptcies have started to move up as a well. if the fed doesn't recognize all of these things going on and they pile on to this, i think it would be disastrous. liz: well, we don't see a disaster at least today in the markets. we are at session highs or just slightly below it. we're watching all of it. jim and scott, as always, thank you so much. here we go, 48 minutes before the closing bell rings. all the hand-wringing over skyrocketing mortgage rates, it is not dampening housing price tags. new data shows u.s. home prices rose for the sixth month in a row. we can the ceo and founder of

the real estate firm compass about the housing market dichotomy and when it's going to start to flip or move. real estate, one of the top performing sectors on the s&p 500 on this final day of october trade with cbre, simon property group and well tower seeing anywhere from 3-4% gains. well, let's call well tower up 2.33%, but well tower's actually jumped 24% this year. "claman countdown "coming right back. don't go away. ♪ ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪

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medicare alone doesn't pay for everything. a medicare supplement plan helps pay some of what medicare doesn't. and that could mean fewer surprise out-of-pocket costs for you. call unitedhealthcare... and ask for your free decision guide. or talk with a licensed insurance agent or producer about plan benefits, options, and rates. this type of plan lets you choose any doctor, any specialist, anywhere in the us who accepts medicare patients. so call unitedhealthcare for your free decision guide... and get help protecting yourself from those out-of-pocket costs medicare doesn't pay. oh, and happy birthday... or retirement... in advance. liz: we are just getting this breaking news, digital real estate stocks plunging on a housing wire report that says a kansas city jury just found home services of america and keller williams guilty of conspiring to

maintain high brokerage commissions. the three defendants have been ordered to pay $1.78 billion in damages. this verdict comes actually after two antitrust lawsuits were filed, seeking to drive down commissions and change how agents are compensated. if i want to bring in robert rev kin, founder and ceo of compass, one of the largest residential real estate companies in the u.s. he is here in a fox business exclusive. what do you make of this news the? because there have been pushes to kind of break up that lock that so many of these real estate companies, maybe even including yours, have on commissions. >> so i just saw the headlines -- liz: so did we, i get it. >> -- just came through. but agents, realty agents are the customers of compass. we're the number one brokerage firm in the country by sales volume, nearly 30,000 agents, and agents are the one that set pricing, not the brokerage firm, so look bard to to learning more. liz: yeah, exactly. clearly, manager needs to be

done especially at a time when the housing market is really in a strange state. prices continue to rise, case shiller up today six months in a row, and yet mortgage rates, i mean, we -- look at mortgage rates right now. 8%. at the moment. that's 0 basis points higher -- 10 basis points higher than they were just last week, 8.08 if you want to be specific. and look where they were in 20 20211, 3.16%, which was ridiculously low for those of us older than 9 years. clearly, we remember mortgage rates much higher. but is it just simply skinny inventoriesome. >> the problem we have in this country is there's just not enough inventory, and that's because 60% of homeowners are locked into mortgage rates of 4% or below, and they consider it a financial asset, and they don't want to lose it. they don't want to convert a 4% mortgage rate into 8. so if we want to see prices decline, then the fed needs to bring down rates, and that will

increase the amount of inventory relative to buyers. liz: okay. let me ask how low rates could go before we started to the see sales really -- or at least built, building homes start to pump up. would it have to be around 6% in 5.5? >> my magic number is 6% from everything that i see. liz: okay. >> one of the benefits of going up to 8, when it gets to the 6, it's like, oh, this is great. [laughter] liz: it's psychological. yeah, exactly. >> and we also have a benefit that as time goes on, less people are locked into low mortgage rates. so it used to be this time last year 70% of homeowners were at 4% or below, now it's 60. naturally, as time goes on, we'll see fewer and fewer people locked into a low mortgage rate. liz: jim lacamp says the fed fund futures will start to be cut in may. personally, i think they're in no mood to cut rates. they're in no mood right now to

hike them again, but no mood to cut rates again. that said, where do you see the most activity the? because in case shiller the prices really skyrocketing for the third month in a row in chicago. which surprised a lot of people. chicago, new york, detroit. but phoenix and vegas, not so much. >> the markets that are doing well are still the low tax, warm weather states, the carolinas, you have florida, you have texas. if chicago -- cities, urban areas where they're bringing people back to the office to work in the office, a lot of people moved to go to zoom towns, hay thought they could work away from their office forever. and as that trend reverses, that brings activity back to the markets. liz: do you peel like we're seeing that reverse? >> absolutely. we're seeing it in parts of seattle, parts of san francisco, although slower. we've already seen new york come back, as we know, and that energy brings activity. the. liz: let's dovetail to the rental market.

the rental market is an a interesting one right now, specifically because there is now a lot of inventory and not enough people who want to rent. at least according to kiplinger's. they said the markets will continue to slow the rest of the year due to this imbalance, too many numbers of units up for lease, too few renters. >> we've seen asking rental prices come down consecutively for the last five months, and is one of the reasons why is people do have to move. your in a must-move market. we have what we call the five ds, diapers, diplomas, diamonds, divorce and death. those life events keep the market moving. but for that 60 that have a 4% mortgage rate or below, they consider it a financial asset, they don't want to lose it. so instead of selling that home, they're renting it out. and so that's leading to an excess amount of inventory for rentals, the opposite for sales, and that's why rental prices are

coming down and sale prices are coming up. liz: do you see in the short term that mortgage prices -- 30-year fixed, for example -- that they will move slightly higher before the end of the year? wells fargo put out an analysis, and they believe that the year will end at 6.9 # 4 president. what do you think? >> i would expect mortgage rates to be in or around this level, the 8-10 level, until the the late spring, unfortunately, and maybe even through the summer. but at some point next year, we will get relief. when you look at what everyone is saying, all the economists, heir expecting the fed to start bringing down rates at some point toward the middle of next year, and then we should see mortgage rates come down accordingly. will. liz: a. i., you've implemented a lot on your web site. how much have you spent to update the tech roj call aspects of compass? >> we invested $1.5 billion in building the industry's paris if

technology platform for -- first technology platform for real estate agents that lets them do everything from first contact to close in one place. but the goal for compass is to be best in the world at helping agents grow their business and have a better quality of life, more time to be with their family, and technology's a core part of that. liz: let's keep watching those commissions, because that is an interesting story, breaking news that we had brought people. thank you so much. and he's the founder and ceo finish. [laughter] of compass. my goodness. all right, we'll be watching it. good to see you. >> jetblue's stock facing serious turbulent lens as it deals with spirit airlines. that deal still has not taken flight. and wait until you see spirit's stock. details next in our market movers. closing bell, 36 minutes away. dow dow jones industrials up 106 # at the moment. airline stocks are mostly in the red with united airlines clinging to the fractional gain. ♪

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i thought i knew. turns out it's far more incredible... - "it takes your breath away." - ... than i ever imagined. liz: fox business alert, take a look at the markets here, and on this last day of a very rough month we've got the majors in the green at least, we've got the dow up 119, s&p gaining 26 points and the nasdaq up 57. let's look at jetblue right now, giving shareholders a case of the blues after hitting a near 12-year low. shares of the airline down

10.25% after the carrier forecast a wider hand expected loss in the current quarter after reporting a third quarter miss blaming disastrous summer delays for the weakness. and separately during an antitrust trial which began in boston today, the department of justice urged a federal judge to block jetblue's planned $3.8 billion acquisition of spirit airlines. the trial comes as the biden administration aggressively pursues antitrust cases across various industries. spirit's taking bigger hit here, down 12.a 5%. shares of nvidia, we kind of talked about this at the top of the show, but dropping to a 5-month low after "the wall street journal" dropped a headline today that the chip maker may be forced to cancel up to $5 billion worth of advanced chip ores that were to go -- orders that were to go to china ford to comply -- in order to comply with the new government restrictions. chip orders to major tech

companies are subject to export restrictions. but now we see through the journal at least a number of -- number put on it. nvidia at $407 and change here, down 1%. but nearly $100 off its 52-week high of $52002 -- 502 a share. we should check advanced microdevice, up about 233%. -- 2.33%. and in the meantime, microsoft has released a major new update to its windows 11 pc operating system. microsoft has added a chat bot called co-pilot that is similar to the chatgpt. co-pilot can perform operating system functions and answer questions with the help of web information. and if you trust web information, i guess you're happy about that. breaking news, the senate just confirmed former treasury secretary jack lew as the next u.s. ambassador to israel.

this is just hitting the tape. it comes at a 53-43 vote. jack lew was, of course, the treasury secretary of the united states. republican senators lindsey graham and rand paul of kentucky broke with their party to join democrats in supporting lew. the senate quickly approving the nomination amid the war in gaza. we have late-breaking developments on the war and much more next. and by the way, back in early september economist neuroyell roubini, aka dr. doom, had predicted a 10% correction in u.s. stocks which happened last friday. a lot has changed since back when he made that prediction. next in a fox business exclusive, he's standing by live. we'll ask him whether the santa claus rally stands a chance against all the headwinds the grinch has been pumping out. and who in their right mind fumbles the greatest job in sports radio by committing securities fraud? losing his on-air gig and ending

up behind bars? my in my brand new everyone talks to to liz podcast episode, you will meet him. he's craig harden, formerly of the boomer and harden show, remember that, with boomer esiason? he shares his roller coaster ride and fighting his way back to the redemption and a new spot on fox sports' morning show. you've got to get the play-by-play on how to come back from a self-inflicted prison sentence. you know, his story's both painful and then totally uplifting. i hope you'll listen to it. it's my new episode of everyone talks to liz on apple, google, spotify, iheart radio, everywhere. wherever you get your podcasts. we will be right back. don't go away. ♪

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as an independent financial advisor, my promise to you is simple. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. i promise that our relationship will go well beyond just investment decisions. it's the intersection of your money and your life where we can make the biggest difference. [announcer] charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com liz: this afternoon israeli defense forces have officially released the name of the a hamas commander they killed in the airstrikes, ibrahim biari was an instrumental figure in planning the october 7th attacks on israel and was killed in a military strike in the gaza strip where he and other terrorists were hiding underground in tunnels. it also confirmed it has

suffered its first casualties of the war. who israeli soldiers is are died in combat. in a speech yesterday, israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu pushed back on calls for a ceasefire, calling on ore nations to back israel in its fight against terror. >> just as the united states would not agree to a ceasefire after the bombing of pearl harbor or after the terrorist attack of 9/11, israel will not agree to a cessation of hostilities with hamas after the horrific attacks offing 7 -- october 7th. israel will stand against the forces of barbarism until rickety. i hope and pray that civilized nations everywhere will back this fight, because israel's fight is your fight. because if hamas and iran's axis of evil win, you will be their next target. that's why israel's victory will be your victory. liz: netanyahu followed up that speech with an op-ed in today's "wall street journal" using those same words, it is entitled

"the battle of civilization," and here's a pretty stunning development. one arab kingdom making a bold statement today about its thousand-open relationship with israel -- now-open relationship with israel. the head of the united arab emirates telling the kingdom's parliament from the uae's perspective, the abraham accords finish the u.s.-brokered deal with bahrain and israel -- the abraham accords are here to stay. he also said the diplomatic ties with israel are not at risk. if this as saudi arabia's military is now at a stage of high alert after it intercepted a rocket shot by houthi rebels, this is a yemen group backed by iran, and that missile was heading towards israel. israel's military confirmed today the houthis are trying to challenge the country, but it will continue to focus on gaza as more voices join the fight in actions and words. fox news reporter mike tobin

joins us live from southern israel. pretty astonishing developments all across that region, mike. >> reporter: it has been an intense and deadly day particularly with the fighting here on the northern end of the gauze a strip just behind me. israel, as you mentioned, lost two soldiers today and and go more injured -- two more injured. in terms of the images coming out innocent northern end of thf the gaza strip, a giant crater can be seen in the ground. the hamas numbers coming from palestinian sources range anywhere from 40-400 casualties from this particular if airstrike. israel says about 50 people were killed in this strike. and as you mentioned, a high valued target, who they say was instrumental in planning and executing the october 7th massacre, someone who ran hamas operations in the refugee camp, jabal irk a.

israel says the reason you see that giant crater is because hamas had tunnels dug, and the tunnels collapsed. if israel owns the airstrike the, own the fact there will be civilian casualties, but they put the blame on hamas for building and operating within the densely-packed civilian population. [speaking in native tongue] >> translator: the hamas terrorists still keep using the civilians intentionally in the most cruel manner as human shields. >> reporter: now, houthi rebels have taken ownership of the menacing air attacks that have come to the south of israel. a city right on the coast of the red sea and on the border of egypt and jordan, there have been a few attacks, drones and missiles, that have come up the red sea. the most recent one was a surface to surface missile today that was taken out by the arrow missile system, rarely used in combat, the first time in this war.

the israelis say a number of players are trying to distract israel from the war on hamas. they are focused on that. if you to note, the houthis as well as hezbollah and hamas if are all backed by iran. liz? liz: yep. mike tobin, thank you. and saudi arabia taking out one of those attempted attackses by the houthis on israel. lots of very, very dramatic developments. and if we dovetail to the question about oil and what's been happening there, pretty interesting picture. west texas intermediate crude falling again today, right thousand in the aftermarket down about 1.33% to $81 now and just 18 cents. you would think during a war mt. middle east oil would be ramping up, but it is down 4% since hamas attacks on israel. and still the world bank is warning oil could soar a in price to a record $150 a barrel depending on the war. even as u.s. oil production -- and this was announced today --

roads .7% in august to a monthly record. let's bring in the man they call dr. doom, known for his long-term bearish views on the global economy. not always bearish. nouriel roubini joins me in a fox business exclusive. the oil price is certainly questionable and a conondrum. most people would think when there's this kind of turmoil in the middle east, we would see higher prices. and it's high oil and high gasoline that tends to push country country at least to the brink of recession. what are you seeing in the face of rower -- lower oil prices? >> well, oil prices are slightly lower in the united states because there is an increased supply. but the initial reaction to the attack of hamas against israel was this brent, the standard oil price for middle eastern, went up by about 10%. it's fallen since then. and i think it has fallen since then because the markets are

pricing in that this conflict is going to remain limited to israel and hamas many gaza. -- in gaza. if that's the case, hen there is no impact on the action, and experts of oil from the gulf and, therefore, the impact on the global economy will be limited in that scenario. liz: limited. all right. well, that's certainly a good sign. where do you sand on the u.s. tipping into recession? it has not happened yet officially, and people are wondering, well, wait a minute, will it happen? especially considering the definition of a recession is two consecutive the quarters of contracting growth. we just got a gdp print of 4.9%. >> yes. as of now, it looksless likely the u.s. is going to end up in a recession, even a shorter and shallow one. a soft landing looks like more likely. the u.s. has shown resilience in spite of the rise many interest rates by the fed, in part

because there is still a strong fiscal stimulus. the chip act, the infrastructure, in part it's because of real rates have gone higher but not much. and the sentiment over the business sector is quite strong. the labor market is tight, and the fed might be done at this point with hiking rates even if they're going to stay high for longer. therefore, you cannot rule out a short and shallow recession next year when looks as of now less likely a soft landing. now, instead of a soft landing, with growth slowing down and inflation going to 2, we have no landing, growth staying above -- [inaudible] and core inflation remaining sick key around 3%, then the fed could have to hike more. that could be a risk that leads into recession. the other risk that will lead to recession is if the conflict between israel and hamas becomes

region involving hezbollah and iran, then you could have an attack by us rial -- against israel by iran, then exports of oil from the gulf would be blocked essentially for weeks, if not months. you could are a spike in oil prices like 1973 yom kippur or 1979 islamic revolution that could take the u.s. and the global economy into recession. liz: could. but for now,s this is interesting, you say it's the less likely the u.s. will fall into recession. thank you very much for joining us. one last quick question about the stock market. you know, do you foresee it shaking, is it underpricing what's going on in the middle east and what could happen, perhaps? >> yes. financial markets, whether it's the oil markets, bond, stock market and and even gold are underpricing the probability that this conflict is going to become regional. they're can'ting herballyst the

going to be -- expecting essentially it's going to be the limited to gaza. i think the probability reasonably high that it becomes regional. if that were to happen, it could go up by 50% because experts in the gulf remain restricted, stock market could go to from a correction into bear market, bond yields would fall because of risk off if there is a dethe anchoring of inflation expectations, they could go higher. and, of course, gold and other safe assets will go much higher. as of now the markets are saying the probability of a regional conflict is low and, therefore, the impact of this brutal conflict on the u.s. and the global economy and the market is going to be limited. liz: nouriel, please come back. it's good to sea you -- see you once again. thank you. >> good being with you. liz: nouriel roubini. we are coming right back, stay tune. ♪ the. ♪

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influencer dylan mulvaney, still have a vapor trail here. can a new partnership help save the brand. this one was fascinating to me, charlie. >> that is such a divergence. go from a trans woman influencer to a sport where men beat the hell out of each other. liz: yeah but it is and all-american beer they say, mixed martial arts. >> why mixed martial arts, dana white, i'm kind of a fan, i listen, watch it occasionally but a million miles away from the image of dylan mulvaney the trans influencer who was on those social media ads caused such a firestorm. kid rock shooting up cans, people boycotting the beer. liz: there was one tiktok. >> there was two. liz: was it two? okay, two. >> could have been a lot more if people didn't go nuts. here is the problem, i've been doing a lot of reporting on this they never really said how they

got to her. they never really said if dylan mulvaney has approved by management. dylan mulvaney has a huge tiktok, watched by a lot of age of people who can't drink beer. she was marketing to minors for beer. that usually, usually that is sort of vetted by the budweiser legal department. we have tons of calls into them. they will not answer these basic questions. so obviously they have been trying to you know put the genie back in the bottle, lots of commercials. they had a bunch of commercials with a bunch guys after dylan mulvaney. i found this out doing my research for my book. my book, go woke go broke. a lot of guys grunting while drinking beer. liz: macho man. >> great village people song. they teamed up with a very manly

man sport, still if you look at the underlying numbers, liz, sales are still going down, not good. i haven't had a bud light in years by the way. liz: a big deal though for mixed martial arts. great to see you, charlie. thank you very much. i have quincy krosby standing by. >> who is that? liz: major money person. he knows. >> sorry, quincy. liz: a major line up to break down the fed decision, joe lonsdale, wharton school professor jeremy siegel and many other names, bob doll the whole shooting match. joining us chief strategist at lpl financial management quincy krosby. the day before we want to get inside of your investment brain to find out where you're putting clients money, quincy? >> overweight fixed income. we like high quality investment grade corporates. they are giving you a nice

return and we like preferreds but mainly for big, healthy, money center banks. they're giving a nice return as well but in terms of equities we're long, we're long energy and we're also long the industrials. industrials have pulled. defense spending, defense stocks are part of the industrials and we think they're going to get a nice boost as congress finally begins to sit down and work and comes up with a supplemental for the defense names. liz: package for israel, possibly ukraine, around 14 billion. we're looking at some of the defense names. they are still down year-to-date even though they have seen a recent pop. general dynamics, lockheed martin, raytheon, hii, all these names, when you look at some of these you wouldn't be buying at the highs the past 52 weeks, that your theory? >> absolutely you'll we'll look

at replenishing the u.s. arsenal. we're way behind. we have to do it. we have to start yesterday. so i think that's also going to be an important boost for defense stocks. it was interesting too, liz, what the gdp report for the third quarter, the one that came out at 4 into 9%, we saw in that report a boost in spending for defense names. liz: quincy -- >> but it will -- liz: the fed tomorrow, quickly, we got 15 seconds? >> fed stays on hold. has to acknowledge the strength of the economy and then perhaps qualifies that by saying they expect to see a slowdown. liz: got it. quincy, always a pleasure to have you. [closing bell rings]. there are the bells. the witching hour of october is over. happy halloween it is a day in the green. ♪. larry: hello, folks, welcome t