tv Barrons Roundtable FOX Business November 3, 2023 7:30pm-8:01pm EDT
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tactic to try to turn the stock around. it's down better than 70% this year. amc is also betting big on beyonce is. tickets to her new documentary, renaissance, go on sale thursday. and follow the mega-star on her latest world tour. we'll bring you all the updates on "mornings with maria, "join me weekdays, 6-9 a.m. on fox business. and i'll see you 10 a.m. sunday morning live on the fox news channel for "sunday morning futures," house oversight committee chairman james comer, senatoron ron johnson, admiral michael mullen and dr. ben carson all live, sunday on fox news. that'll do it for us here on fox business. thanks so much for watching. we'll see you again next time. have a great rests of the weekend. ♪ ♪
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♪ jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. i'm jack otter. cooler than expected jobs data have investors hopeful that the federal reserve's rate-hiking saga might finally be reaching its finale. we have an investment strategist to explain why he expects a stock rally late e next year and where the opportunities will be. then artificial intelligence is rebooting the pc business with, which companies are benefiting and how you can get in on the a action. and later, we'll take a look at what's ahead for disney and espn. we begin, as always, with three things investors ought to be thinking about right now. stocks soaring for the week on the latest economic data. all three major indices up more than 5% and and seeing the best week since last november. then, a setback for the national association of realtors after a jury found it conspired with
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brokerages to inflate commissions. we'll look at what it means for buyers and sellers. and finally, a possible breakthrough for the health care industry. one company is developing a non-addictive painkiller that could help ease the opioid epidemic. is there an opportunity for investors? my colleagues, ben levisohn, carlton english and jacob sonnenshein. so, ben, so many weeks we talked about how good news is bad news in the market. this week weed had mediocre or news and a terrific the rally. >> yeah. our long stock market nightmare is over. only 3 months and 10% down, but this week it was as if the market realizedded, you know what? we don't have any problems. so the s&p 500 had its best week since november of 202 # 32, and you had stocks reporting earnings that were just surging. roku, shopify, palantir that gained 20% or more after reporting earnings. they're tech stocks, so we kind of expect that, but stocks like starbucks and chlorox had big gains too.
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i think this is just the market finally realizing, hey, the world's note ending. we can -- not ending, we can buy some of this stuff. jack: those falling yields are part of what made stock the investors happy. >> i think that was a lot of it. and the yields going up spooked everyone and caused people to sell safe stocks like chlorox but also the big tech stocks. thousand there's fear over the issuance from the treasury that there's been too much debt, but they came out and announced it's not going to be as much as anyone thought. the fed helps -- no more hikes, and then you had payroll number. and by the end of the week, the 10-year treasury had cropped almost a half a percentage point. jack: yeah, that was a huge move. you said our long nightmare is over. do you think this rally really does have legs? >> i just look at the time of the year. we're heading into the end of 2023, this is a great seasonal time for the market. stocks are still up, and you're going to have all these people looking at their portfolios going, uh-oh, i need the buy
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some stocks here because i'm not long. and if they have to chase, there's a lot more room to go. jack: that's enough cheery news, carlton. let's get to the sad enough at least if you happen to be a realities broker. tell us what this ruling could mean for real estate brokers and their paychecks. >> yeah. a jury determined that the national association of realtors basically said that brokers were kind of conspiring to keep commission levels high for agents. and there's going -- they were ordered to pay about $1.8 billion in damages. what this means is when someone's selling a house, in order to get the house on the multiple listing service which, of course, you want to market it, you want that, they kind of had to the headache an offer to the buyer's act. and the thinking that kind of head to commissions being much higher than they would have been otherwise to. so what's going to happen is you might if see some buyers and sellers' commissions come down a bit. jack: and certainly our commissions in this country are far higher than much of the rest of the world, suggesting that
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these transactions can take place without 6%. do home sellers save money on this? >> i don't think they should get too, too excited about that because when someone is buying a house, right, you're saying, okay, i'm ready to buy something that's going to be about $400,000, that's probably still going to be the price because when you're look agent that 5.5-6%, those commissions may go down by 2 percentage points, certainly going to hurt the agents, absolutely, but the effect on home prices probably isn't go going to be that much change because that's really determined by market forces. jack: got it. jacob, let's switch to the pharmaceutical industry, a company called vertex did very well. what i think is is interesting is this painkiller that is a non-opioid painkiller. that could have, really be great news in terms of the opioid epidemic. >> the company says they could announce the trial results of those, several of them, within the next year roughly. some of the results might be
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less than that time frame. analysts think that this could be about $5 billion revenue annual opportunity. the market for this is tens of billions of dollars over the next several years, so this is a big opportunity. you're talking about a company that in a few years could hit $14-15 billion in revenue with the other drugs that they're selling, so you really is have to pay attention what happens with the research and development spend and what happens with profit margins. but you're talking about maybe something in the ballpark of a 30% lift to earnings for this company. does that mean you want to buy the stock? well, the stock's rallying low double digits on this news already so, yes, it has more runway, but these things you can have hiccups, problems as three drug -- these drugs start to come through, so i'd probably wait a little bit. jack: real quick, one pill had bad results. >> it's already been approved in june, but the fda basically said if you have confirmation results later that aren't aren't great,
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we could actually withdraw it. stock down about 50% reflecting billions of dollars of sales coming out of the valuation. so that's a lot for really kind of not a huge company. so there's an analyst, i think this is interesting, that thinks the fda could ultimately pretty much say it's already out there, it's been selling in q3, is they're probably -- they might not withdraw the drug. jack: it's a horrible disease. i hope they can solve it. could the sharp slowdown in hiring and a cooling economy mean the fed is done with hiking rates? investment strategist christopher high si will tell us what it means for the markets and where to put your money next. ♪
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jobs growth slowing in october, the u.s. adding 150,000 jobs, below the 180 estimate. unemployment up slightly, 3.9% versus the expected 3.8%, and the central reserve pausing rates for the second consecutive month. its final heating of 2023 is just a little over a month away, or joining me now is bank of america private bank chief investment officer christopher hyzy. thanks for coming to see us. >> thanks for having me. jack: is so everyone's heard about the soft landing, the hard landing, the no landing, but you're the first guy i've heard talk about a medium lapping. what do you mean by that? -- landing? >> first, any landing has to start soft because you're sliding into the landing. so with headline risk so high, geopolitical risks so high as well, the way data's unfolding and where we're coming from, we're more than likely to see something that's going to feel like a medium hand aring. so what is that? -- landing? if parts of the economy are likely to have a hard landing, a
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majority soft, and other parts are going to have a lot of cross-currents to it. and it is our belief that, ultimately, we -- if you do have a recession and wall street is already in the soft landing camp, if you go towards a recession, something has to crack in the consumer land. so it's really important to watch consumers and households, because corporate balance sheets are fairly well. so a medium landing is all about headline risk, it's all about watching the consumer, and it's all about what the prevailing winds are blowing at the time. regardless, a balanced approach, in our opinion, is what's needed. jack: you mentioned soft, hard, lumpy. scare us with the hard part. what would be the hard part in that scenario? >> if you think of the leveraged parts to of the economy, built up in some cases many years -- jack: 0%. >> and this other cases really
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during the heights and depths of the pandemic. you could have short-term las vegas leverage or long-term leverage, and if that's in areas that are weak, not producing cash flows, have long-term profit streams way out, when every to refinance at much higher rates, it's a tough go. so that's like the hard landing area. j jon so in the prediction d., you're doing pretty well because on thursday you told me the first thing that has to happen is the 2-year yield has to plummet. take us from there, what happens next? >> well, i think you're going to see a down trend overall on yield withs. you have this weird distortion that's still out there. when you had the deep inare version for so many months and you had, arguably, it's taken three years or almost three years of bond market depreciations as it relates to prices as a yields have backed up. and at the same time, the economy is not as credit-sensitive. so this long-awaited tale of what's coming next is still there, but the 2-year yield is telling us, ultimately, what the direction of the federal reserve policy's going to be, and the
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10-year -- 10-year is telling us result, ultimately the direction of the economy, and they're now starting to talk to each other. jack: you say it's going to lead to the a reboot of the stock market in 2024. tell us about that. >> now, the reboot is not that easy, right? we have to get through the depths of whatever is coming, whether it's the soft, medium or hard in certain parts. but the key is, obviously, earnings. they have been resilient so far. when we talk about, like, the reboot and the foundational year of '24, it's more about what is portfolio diversification. the fact that fixed income actually gives you income, and the yield curve could ultimately normalize towards an upward-sloping, more towards the back of the year. and even if we don't have a stellar earnings growth part of the beginning of the year, the back half of '24, once the yield curve normalizes to something closer to what we're used to, and then '25, '26, equity investors should start to
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discount that that, and that's where we fete that reboot. jackie: jon on the 60, the only thing that has been working is the magnificent seven. if you're looking for small cap value --? >> yeah, we've got some time. we've got a couple months left in the year, so we not only have time, we also have work to do before small cap value ultimately stops its down trend relative to the parts of the market that are working. we had a nice rally, obviously, this week. i think the way to think about '24 is not in terms of first half, second half in terms of fixed income or equities, it's the broadening out. and it's going to have a start-stop type of method do it. doesn't happen in a straight line. but this narrow leadership ultimately should start to phase into a broader participation, and that's, could happen also if things are weak in the beginning of the year. so small cap values about the next few years, but next year is it's foundational element to start to kick in again when we
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haven't is seen that in quite a few -- jack: yeah. chris, thanks so much for coming in. >> you bet. thanks, jack. jack: advancing a. a.i. technology is rebooting the personal computer. (fisher investments) it's easy to think that all money managers are pretty much the same, but at fisher investments we're clearly different. (other money manager) different how? you sell high commission investment products, right? (fisher investments) nope. fisher avoids them. (other money manager) well, you must earn commissions on trades. (fisher investments) never at fisher. (other money manager) ok, then you probably sneak in some hidden and layered fees. (fisher investments) no. we structure our fees so we do better when our clients do better. that might be why most of our clients come from other money managers. at fisher investments, we're clearly different.
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♪ jack: the power of artificial intelligence is coming the a dueter here to you, both pc and chip merricks are jumping at understoods to get in on the action. ing sales soared during the covid-19 pandemic when people were forced to turn their bedrooms into home offices, but computer purchases have been in a funk ever since. pc shipments are expected to tank theory 14% for 2023. it's the cover story this week, and barron's associate editor joins the panel.
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so, eric, thanks for coming on. despite all this hype around artificial intelligence, very few investment options other than nvidia. now you see benefits to the potential cuter makers. why would my -- computer makers. i don't understand. >> yeah. it sounds a little contrarian to the way people the typically think about a.i., but the truth is that every pc manufacturer, all of the big ones plus all of the primary chip suppliers that serve them, are all really focused on building out a new class of pcs which they simply call a.i.pcs. they'll be cable of running generative a.i. applications on your desktop. jack: everybody always talks about everything's moving to the clouds, why come back to the laptop? what's the benefit? >> yeah. it's sort of everything old is new again, right? there's a few reasons for that. one is speed. is it'll be faster to run some of these types of applications
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on your desk without having to go back and forth to the cloud. it's also particularly for enterprises, it's cheaper. so you don't have to the pay as much money for cloud computing which can be very expensive, and it's also safer. there's a whole bunch of reasons why you might want to do this on your desk and in the in the cloud. jack: give us a concrete example. what would i want to do on my laptop that would why are this -- require this powerful a.i. chip? >> sure. for example, there's an interesting start-up called rewind a.i. that takes, they have an application that takes all of the things that you do at your desk during the course of the day, that includes conversations, webcasts, web sites that you visit, chats that you have, slack messages, all of that a kind of thing, captures everything that you do and then makes it searchable so you can easily go back and find references to things that were that were made during the day. that's unbelievably valuable as
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a reporter, i would find that a super fantastic way of keeping track of the things that i've done. and you really want to do that locally. you may not want to share some of that information, the conversations you have during the day, to the cloud. and it's much more efficient if you can search that locally rather than trying to do it up in the cloud. >> now, eric, i'm hearing you as a reporter, i can kind of see the utility of this rewind ma'am, and i understand having it locally, still terrifies me. i do and say a lot at my desk during the day, so walk me through the security here. >> sure. so the beauty of this is that it is local. so you won't be sharing that information with anyone without your consent. you're not sending it up to some a.i. model many some mysterious place in a server in the cloud. you're running it all locally. so it's a lot safer if you can do it locally and more efficient and faster. >> eric, what are the winners in
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terms of companies, and what are the stock picks here? >> sure. so i think the most obvious winners here are the pc manufacturers, in particular dell and hewlett-packard. dell and hp are companies that have been hurt in the recent downturn in pc sales, but they stand to see a recover in 2024, could see sales pick up, and both stocks are really cheap. both dell and hp are trading at single-digit multiples of earnings, very low multiple sales. i think they will both get a big boost from the a.i. pc friend. -- trend. >> you haven't mentioned apple. what's going on with them. are they just completely out of it? >> yeah, very strange situation. no, apple has been including capabilities to do machine learning and artificial intelligence in the processers in their devices for at least five years now. but they have not announced a clear strategy on a.i.
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they just awe -- a few days ago announced a new set of laptops and some new chips but barely talked about a.i. there's a sense that their strategy is still under development, and i think there's some room for the other side of the fence for the conventional pc makers to pick up some ground from apple if they don't develop the strategy here soon. so it's a puzzle. jack: eric, thank you so much. you always make tech understandable for us. i think it's also going to be interesting to see how much storage carlton is going to need on her machine. good for the dram makers. [laughter] ben and jacob have a pair of investment ideas, and carlton's looking at future for disney and espn. stay right there. on putting others first. it's on us to help care for our clients' well-being; to help them adapt. it's inspiring to work at a place where our patients succeed. and we as therapists do, too.
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ahead of disney's earnings next week. let's focus on espn. it's a wonderful business. sports is far and away the best part of traditional tv, but it's also a melting ice cube. break it town or -- down for us. >> i'm not sure if it really is a wonderful business. yes, espn, worldwide leader in sports and whatever else, but, you know, that comes at a cost. when you have cable subscriptions in decline as they've been and you also have the value of the nfl, nba, all the sports franchises going up and up, costs of running some of these games going up to too, the business for espn not looking so great. so what's going to be the coming up is disney finally started breaking out esp, this' financials, and the issue is, as we were saying with the traditional cable model, basically you had the non-sports watchers subsidizing espn. now when you have cable subscriptions in decline, you have to wonder, okay, what is it worth on a monthly amount?
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one analyst at bofa, looking at people who get espn through hulu and other things, people may have to pay something like $41 a month to be able to just get an espn stand-alone. jack: that's got to be a serious sports fan. they're talking about partners, one being the nfl. >> looking at nfl, nba, mlb and potentially even one of their -- some of chair competitors, amazon and apple, which have been trying to get into the sports game as well just to get the economics to make sense. where can we get distribution, what partnerships make sense because if we can't rely on linear tv anymore, we have to have distribution elsewhere. jack: maybe some of the athletes will have the pitch in. time for action able ideas. jacob? >> meta platforms, 18 times earning, you not getting just is an average company. you're getting a company that's taking market share, using a.i. to, really engaging people on
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instagram with reels. you're talking about a revenue grower that can grow the bottom line at a double digits and getting it at an average multiple. jack: and instagram is the only service where i think the ads actually apply to me. a scary good job, to tell the the truth. >> i'm going to go with serapta, the success las blown up before, and it has a way of coming back. there are booms and busts, and you don't want the buy the booms, but when it busts, that's a good time to consider buying. jack: we like to root for their success. >> we do. jack: thanks, guys. great ideas from all of you. to read more of these, check out this week's edition of barrons.com. don't exert to follow us on x, and that's all for us. see you next week on "barron's roundtable." ♪ ♪ whatcha want, whatch a-- get on the ground, dude. (singing) whatcha gonna do-- ow. (singing) --when sheriff john brown come for you?
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