2021 the price per feast made to under differ with where you live, northeast projected for the most expensive meals in the midwest with the least costly for thanksgiving i will have more on "mornings with maria" every weekday 6 - 9:00 a.m. eastern on fox business. i hope you will join us, i will see you on sunday on the fox news channel 10:00 a.m. eastern on the fox news channel for "sunday morning futures". have exclusive interviews with arkansas senator tom cotton, congresswoman margie taylor greene, texas dps lieutenant christopher olivarez and former house speaker kevin mccarthy live sunday 10:00 a.m. eastern on fox news. that will do it for us on fox business, have a great rest of the weekend, we are sending the best happy thanksgiving holiday. i will see you next time. >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etf's.

jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" were really get behind the headlines and prepare you for the weekend. i'm jack cotter, avoiding the government shutdown this year the congress is at odds over funding libby kantrowitz for insight on what to expect in the new year, what to expect for the upcoming energy bills, the price of the pump is trending lower despite were in the middle east but the winter heating season is just beginning, later the cheapest stock in the s&p 500 is still not a bargain for others. jack hough will tell you why not. we begin with always with three things investors to be think about right now. the stocks are up for the week on cooling inflation data and optimism that the fed is done hiking rates. workshare hathaway has sold data general motors from the auto workers strike, the oracle of omaha has a mystery billion dollar investment.

we will tell you which stock we think he may have bought. vitally mixed messages on the health of the consumer heading into the holiday shopping seas season, big box stores are seeing strong earnings but retail sales fell for the first time in march on the "barron's roundtable" ben levisohn, carleton english and jack hough. nice numbers on inflation, two different data points this past week, is a surly santa claus rally that we've seen. >> we had a nice rally, to present this week in the best three week rally since 2020. and i don't know if we want to call santa claus or if it's inflation or no inflation, inflation numbers were fantastic, no inflation month over month in the headline cpi was only about 2% on the quarter. these are great numbers. it means the fed is not going to hike rates in december and people are concerned about cutting and 2024 and early 2024 but the market loves this back i'm going to pour cold water on the happy talk, we saw continuing claims are going in

the wrong direction even as overall job numbers are not so bad. this looks like an early indicator that the fed cuts are actually starting to hit/, should we worry as an early recession indicator. >> i'm not sure it's early we had so many recession indicators that we should had a recession by now but it is one to definitely watch, we have that with a gain of 30% over the past 12 months which some strategists see as a warning sign we've also seen on appointment rate go up and were starting to get into the some rural territory. the job market is where we want to be watching to see if recession is coming. >> later we will hear from carleton about retail sales numbers, use a black friday is not just for shoppers. >> when i was trading this was a long time ago, black friday was great because the markets open but nobody is around, though the liquidity, stocks moved all over the place and you had to quit at 1:00 o'clock, it was perfect and we went home and it was great.

>> jack, warren buffett is not a trader but he does by insult occasionally and you took a deep dive into the 13 this week. >> at a medium depth dive he sold his remaining general motors and reduced hp and chevron amidst other sales that is according to the 13 filing this past week the quarterly holdings, i saw three takeaways really, number one buffett does not seem enamored by u.s. stocks right now, he has been a net seller this year with the biggest buying in japanese trading companies which are exciting to him, number two he says his favorite holding period is forever but he ditched gm after 11 years and is the second cheapest stock in s&p 500 if you go to the ratio of 4.3 which says don't hold the stock forever just because it's cheap and number three a lot of investors are worried about the index here in the s&p being too tech heavy, not buffett half of the stock portfolio is an apple.

>> he was a buyer of something, the mystery stock. >> the mystery stock in the company has permission to keep it confidential for now. our colleague andrew bary has done some speculation, he things is likely a financial company he names three possibilities morgan stanley, blackrock and chubb. just naked speculation if that is a phrase i can remember. but if he is right i knew it all along. >> never speculate. carleton let's move on let's buy some clothes. >> let's please move on. >> consumer is energized of this economy, how is he or she looking. >> honestly looking pretty good, that is the analysis that our reporter has a cover story this week. were going into the holiday season and a lot of apprehension because we have been worried is there going to be a recession or not. i received an economic slowdown or not. there might be a slight slowdown in the growth of sales figures during the holiday season but not quite a decline.

people are still shopping and it has to do a lot of what were talking about an appointment at 3.9% still near historic lows people may be rethinking their household holiday spend budgets but they are still spending and also delinquency outstanding debt is at about 3% which is actually below 2019 levels. the consumer is looking healthy. >> we did get earnings reports this past week, what did they tell you. >> you have a mix of different stories going on, one would be walmart which has a great year pull back on earnings in a forward outlook wasn't as great as wall street hoped, then you had target which was a laggard and did pretty well, people think that they have the inventory issues under control and showing momentum then gap which is a forgotten about retailer, same-store sales still in the decline but not as much as feared another turnaround story that seems to be getting lags and then a lot of other retailers and the next week.

more signs on the help of the consumer. >> we will see what they say. >> another government shut businesses need 5g solutions today. that's why they choose t-mobile for business. las vegas grand prix chose t-mobile to help power operations for one of the world's largest racing events. mlb partners with t-mobile to advance how the game is played. and t-mobile's network helps aaa stay connected nationwide... to get their members back on the road. now's the time to see what america's largest and fastest 5g network can do for your business.

jack: congress has saved off a government shutdown for now, president biden's a temporary spending but one day before they remain divided over budget cuts the package splits a full year spending deadlines into two separate dates january 19 and february 2, joining me now head of public policy libby cantrill, thank you for coming by in the studio. >> let's talk about the steel speaker johnson is still in his honeymoon it's pretty much the same deal the got mccarthy kicked out of office were voted

under democrats voting for republicans does this usher in a new bipartisan spirit. >> don't hold your breath jack and is a typical congressional fashion, congress has kick the can down the road bifurcated the deadlines, made something that should be simple more complicated with the genuine 19th and february 2 deadline, for all intensive purposes, this is the same political dynamic that will hunt speaker johnson, january. in some ways the same menu different waiter and he's a different leader in the same dynamic, our expectation is that the chances of a government shutdown come january 19 are actually elevated he will no longer pass a short-term stock measure and difficult for the house and senate for half of the appropriation bills and time working to basically be talking about the same thing come january 19 and we would see the

risks are elevated going into that. >> i think january 19 is the name of it. >> i'm sure it isn't every second is groundhog day. >> you of the bond market the deals are higher europe and elsewhere there are many dynamics here, as part of it the investors are starting to sniff out the dysfunction and growing deficits in demanding more from a higher price. >> it's difficult to completely disentangle that, our senses the term premium and the yield that investors require to basically lend to the government is higher partly because of concerns about the function or lack thereof in washington and concerns about not only the deficit today but most importantly the deficit over the next ten, 20 or 30 years. >> mitt romney and joe manchin have a plan for that what are the odds that they could have success when they do not. >> this is really important for

folks who have been watching, as much as congress is debating about annual funding bills that is nibbling around the edges, what they're debating that the 25% of the government budget, the balance of that is interest expense but mostly it's mandatory spending and medicare and social security into a lesser extent, joe manchin mitt romney who are no longer good to be in the senate come 2025 because they both said they're not running for reelection have put out a proposal for entitlement reform we will see, people don't like the idea entitlement reform, we haven't seen anything happen since 1983 substantively. don't hold your breath, and again, that is all for in the room, less members of congress really address that were not to get her deficit and debt and check. >> nobody has the guts because the risk to hear an election. manchin in romney as a

hypothetical third candidate but the one that is surging is nikki haley is there any chance that she becomes a serious competitor to donald trump for the republican primary. >> even where the polling is in a fermentable lead if the primaries were tomorrow he likely would be the nominee but the primaries are not tomorrow do not really for 60 days and that is iowa on january 15 followed by new hampshire on january 23. how we are guiding our clients if is president trump with the first four contest iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina he likely will have the momentum going into super tuesday on march 5 to win the nomination. however, if nikki haley performs new hampshire an open primary is a different dynamic that it could be a two-man race. >> were all out of time but before you go i really would like you to explain why you spent last night in times square. >> 12 of my colleagues and i slept out we gave up our beds

and we slept in times square on the cold hard ground and pretty hardy new york city last night, were doing this to raise awareness for used homelessness and to raise money for covenant house which is the largest provider of shelter and other services for homelessness in new york city. it's a wonderful fundraising event and lots of money for their important mission and a great corporate funding. >> speak over.org. >> sleep out.org. >> think of her doing that figure for coming by. libby cantrill. prices are down at the pump but what is outlook for your home liberty mutual customized my car insurance and i saved hundreds. with the money i saved, i started a dog walking business. oh. [dog barks] no it's just a bunny! only pay for what you need. ♪liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty.♪

be when gas prices have been

following the past several weeks despite the ongoing war in the middle east, gases done within 20 cents from a month ago and nearly 40 cents since lastin tht joined the panel, thank you for coming by. >> let's start with oil, usually when you see hostility breakout in the middle east, oil prices go up there was a quick pot but there down since the awful hamas attack. >> absolutely right, the immediate aftermath, that monday prices moved up several dollars the as days went by nothing else happened, did not spread, little proxy wars here and there but nothing crazy i did not draw the countries and, that is what you see prices drop, additionally the united states production is at the highest level of all-time. inventory of oil have gotten a little but more comfortable. jack: where it is open c oil with the price of the pump say three months or six months. >> i think gasoline will continue to drop they look

pretty comfortable and refineries are starting to come back for maintenance, i think we could have about of $3 nationally and you are to have ten states that are below the 3-dollar average and california which is over five by monday should be thanksgiving or below the 5-dollar mark. >> that is gasoline, what about heating your house, natural gas prices are halfway they were last year and down a little bit, opened things that's going to stay steady. >> we think heating oil prices remain relatively high versus several years ago but compared to last year, much lower and if you sell recently the next weather service came out with a forecast for much of the country that does use he did in the northeast, warm temperatures for december january and february, that should bode well for supplies and prices. >> are gas prices going to rise high enough that it makes sense for me to go out by denevi. >> in certain parts of the country like california where

you already see more widespread adoption, but nationally, probably not. again electric vehicles are pretty attractive, the cost is coming down, the battery which was the most prohibitive was coming in as well they're getting close to compete with internal combustion engine in a little bit of what. >> at opus use fancy term and i don't have a clue what that means but the consumer wants to know prices are going up or down, prices are going down the prices more expensive than tomorrow, the price today is cheaper than tomorrow, we recently flipped and not just to use the oil supplies and supplies of other products are pretty comfortable for the time being. >> and excepted it comes to the energy patch and chevron, exxon,

pioneer, i understand these stocks have appreciated so much that they're able to do all stock transactions whereas other deals would have to take on debt, these guys don't have to. i'm curious if you could explain the non- financing side but the strategic sense of some of these deals and never get to see the energy patch. >> in regards to exxon volume pioneer, most of those are in the premium base and that's a most prolific area of shell oil in the production of the united states as an energy security for both companies both have been adding refining capacity. exxon plans to take that oil that they produce and refine and the refineries in the east texas in western louisiana and only supply domestic markets but also send it to south america, latin america are actually growing. what is the business outlook for the oil refineries, phillips 66 in these types of companies, is

called oil refiners, the cra k, should we all be buying crack right now. >> is a loaded question. again the prospects for refining our good or you would have these companies in any capacity and other cavities around the world adding refineries as well as some cases you mentioned marathon and in the same physical bay area, transitioning to make renewable diesel and sustainable aviation using renewable products like cooking oil, soybean, et cetera. the life of these refineries are not going away anytime soon. >> one thing in oil patches, they have discipline and stop overproducing. >> correct, that's what prices have been steady, skipping them of the ability to have the cash on hand to make these transactions, capital discipline has been a buzzword for the past three years is not going away. >> really quick, variance had a story recommending chevron sta k

a while back. >> 's syllabi is a knock down because of this deal will take a while to make a productive but the stock is so cheap we thought it looked pretty good it's an injured barry, you'll hear his name a lot on the "barron's roundtable". >> his rates are higher than that when andrew likes the stock, they had an evaluation, we take it pretty seriously, we like and pretty here. >> and they said by am going with barry with bearings ♪ students... students of any age, from anywhere. students in a new kind of classroom. ♪ using our technology to power different ways of learning. ♪ harnessing ai to plant new beginnings. ♪

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speak what if i'm hard up for conversation at a christmas

party, can anyone name the cheapest single stock in the s&p 500. >> there is one cheaper trade at 3.3 times earnings and somehow doesn't look like an obvious bargain and this week some variance it is by actress, if you would ask me seven years ago let's call it the most reviled company in america it bought this epipen a lifesaving and $600 to tupac less than a decade, scolded by both parties mylan combined with the part of pfizer, remember viagra and had all those sorts of old branded drugs they were facing generic competition, this combination is by actress it could produce more than 20% of its market value and free cash this year but has not convinced investors that it can

grow the stock slumps and slumps it's a turnaround candidate without convincing turnaround so far. jack: we could have better names for the company but rather than go there i'll just ask you at some point does the stock becomes about how cheap is that before i meant mckay was talking with a colleague it can go below i guess that like the argument at this point. there were starting positions for a turnaround company, plenty of cash coming in you just have to come up with a plan for what to do with it, they said that they want to move up the value chain and drug development. i'm waiting to figure out what it all means. >> invest the cash coming in the money market these days. 5%. >> other actionable ideas, what you have. >> for citizens bank this is the one that everybody knows about silicon valley, there a lot of history of integrating failed institutions into the bank and have a very conservative balance sheet, liberty taken off this year but there you have me upsie when venture capital but in the meantime you get a well-run bank

that has a capacity to return cash to shareholders. >> attack entrepreneurs as clients. >> looking at walmart as carleton mentioned, the market was a happy wood of the biggest losers of 500 this week but it is still growing and stronger the competitors in this economy slows its way to benefit from that i think you should buy the dip. >> he will be buying stuff at the door buster sale. >> that's what i do every black friday. great idea then, carleton and jack, to read more check out this addition the barron's.com don't forget to follow us on x at barron's online we will see you next week on "barron's roundtable". >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is "maria bartiromo wall str