on wall street, tune in for that, maria's joined by congressman russell fry to discuss anti-semitism the on college campuses and the latest in the biden family investigation. steve moore is going to join her as a well to break down all of the economic data on deck for next week. so, luke and lauren, thank you so much for both being here. such great points to make and such great insight on all of these topics, you know? thanksgiving there's actually a lot of news on black friday that we have to kind of parse through and figure out, so our viewers really appreciate it. thank you both with. >> thank you for having us. >> it was a lot of fun. tips from you for shopping. jackie: we love dogs, and we're cat people, that was our takeaway as well. "varney & company" if is up next, david asman is -- david: hi, i'm a dog person as well. you and i both. all right, jackie, thank you very much is. happy thanksgiving.

good morning, everybody or. i'm david asman in for stuart the varney today. a temporary the ceasefire if between israel and hamas is officially in effect to allow for the long-awaited release of some of the civilian hostages who have been held by a hamas terrorists since the october 7th mass a kerr. the first group of 13 hostages expected to be freed momentarily, a total of 50 over the next few days. of course, that still leaves as many as 200 hostage as being held by hamas. here at home anti-israeli protesters disrupting the thanksgiving day parade and defacing new york city's public library. "the new york post" calling them, quote, bloody idiots. and then just hours after preaching unity on thanksgiving, president biden's campaign released a guide for taking on your own maga family members, imagine that. and take a look at this, a new wall street journal poll hoeing many americans -- showing many americans now see the american dream slipping out of reach. get this, it's from 6 # 8 down

to 36%. that dramatic drop in just one year. and, we, today is black friday. shoppers are gearing up to race to stores to catch those black friday steals ahead of the holidays, but listen to this, 25% of americans still have holiday debt left over from last year. turning to the markets now, futures are up just slightly. the nasdaq is down just slightly. the markets are kind of waiting for things to develop after the holidays. the 10-year is up but just a touch, it's now trading at 4.4 75. "varney & company" is just about to begin. ♪ ♪ david: and let's start with an update out of israel. a temporary ceasefire is underway, and hostage releases will begin taking place as we speak. lauren is here.

good morning, lauren. lauren: good morning. david: take me through what we know. lauren: hamas is freeing the first 13 of 50 hostages, these are women and under the age of 19 years old. in exchange, israel will free altogether 150 palestinians being held in israeli jails. so, yes, as of now the ceasefire has taken hold. it isment expected to last four day days. moments from now the hostages will be released via egypt and brought to an air base in southern israel. they will undergo physical exams, mental check-ups. these are young people. psychologists will help explain to them what happened in the past seven weeks, and they will be given phones so they can call their familieses, and the families have been -- david: i cannot imagine. lauren, thank you very much. let's turn now to domestic news and politics. another poll showing donald trump beating president biden by four points. david avella joins me now. david, good to see you. biden clearly has a problem here. the question is, are are

republicans focusing their attention just on beating biden, or are they going to stay issue-base based so that just in case a new candidate comes in before the election they're ready? >> well, both of those things can be true, david. we focus on what president biden's policies have done to america. keep in mind most independent and persuadable voters believe that it's the president's policies that have us where we are. and yet we also have the offer to americans ideas that they'll say, or yes, those are the ideas we want to help move our country forward. so it's both. we end keep the focus on -- we keep the focus on what the president has done, but at the same time republicans have to offer an alternative vision. david: you know, i talked about the american dream slipping away in the minds of most american voters. i mean, that is a dramatic decrease in people who believe anytime, from 6 # 8% down to 36% in just one year. is that going to be kind of a focus on the economic front?

>> well, certainly you see americans very clearly concerned about the cost of everyday living. it is seen in every voter survey as to what issue is most important to them. you're also seeing, david, the increase in people's perm security -- personal security becoming a bigger and bigger issue whether that be because of what they see in the news about the border not being secure, whether it be what they see in international affairs or even when they're experiencing in their own communities where the rise in crime does, is impacting people. david: yeah. >> so you see both. you see folks are feeling economically and personally insecure at the moment. hence, why the number you talked about a with the american dream slipping away only at 36. people think that's true. david: yeah. and, meanwhile, president biden called msnbc's coverage of the macy's thanksgiving day parade. roll tape. >> -- even with our problems and being together, not -- and stop

the, stop the rancor, you know? we have to bring the nation together. david: yeah. stop the rancor, but meanwhile, the biden team just released a guide on how to deal with, quote, crazy maga nonsense for thanksgiving. i mean, you know, it's -- you have this on the one hand we're trying to bring the neigh together, but on the other hand, he still deals with mag baas even though -- as though it's a fascist conspiracy. >> well, to his credit at least on thanksgiving, he called for unity. we will not, to your point about the talking points they sent out, we're not if going to see that next year. look, the president's numbers are the worst for a president seeking re-election almost in history. and the biden campaign knows the only way they win is by vilifying whoever the republican nominee is and making that the individual less desirable than joe biden. david, if you're looking for an inspirational or uplifting election, 2024 is not going to be it.

[laughter] david: i think that is a safe bet. i would bet on that no matter what happens. but i've got to say with the border crisis at its height right now, 6, 7 million migrants come in just since biden was elected, he's claiming now that the border's more secure now than it was under donald trump. i mean, it's -- your mind is exploding at some of these claims. david, thank you very much. appreciate you being here. have a great weekend. well, president biden has been struggling in the polls lately. lauren, come on in and tell us exactly what's his strategy to try to win back voters? lauren: talk about ran or corps, attack trump more. [laughter] biden has largely tried to focus on his record and bidenomics, but trump's lead has grown. so now the president will reportedly sharpen his attacks on his e likely opponent in 2024. the biden camp pain has called -- campaign has called trump's america in 2025, they're going to use that vision to try and scare voters about what another trump presidency would look like. and also a, david, highlight his

legal troubles. david: all right. well, we'll see if that workings. next one, lauren. west virginia senator joe manchin has teased a possible third party bid for the white house in 2024. he is a big tease. what is he saying now? lauren: i think he's being honest. he told the messenger, bring up the quote: i know that a third party president, myself if or anyone else who wants to jump into that fray, is really a long shot. but if you can get a movement to where where you can move the two establishment parties back to where where their roots are, where they've come from and what they've been able the produce over all these years, they can get back to some normality. so he's saying it's a long shot. he also a suggested term limits and ranked choice voting where voters rank multiple candidates. david: yeah. he reminds me of the new york mayor, he seems to say the right things, but he doesn't deliver on what he claims. lauren: both biden and trump are highly unpopular, so i think now is the best time for a third

party candidate. david they'd lauren, thank you very much. let's get a check on the markets. the futures suggest that the markets are going to be pretty flat. the dow and the s&p have slight gains. nasdaq has a slight loss. look at that, .007%. so it's a pretty flat market here day after thanksgiving. kenny polcari joins me now. kenny, great to see you. i hope you had a wonderful thanksgiving. i want to talk about thanksgiving beginner at your house -- dinner at your house, but my 401(k), i've got to say, i took a peek at it yesterday after i was digesting my meecialtion it looks pretty damn good compared to the way it was a month ago. >> yeah, you know, listen, stocks have gone higher, right? we've seen this big rally in the broad market ever since that october swoon, right? that doesn't necessarily mean you're not going to see stocks pull back again, they certainly will. they'll ebb and flow with with the economy as we learn more about where the fed is really going, have they navigate canned

a soft landing or not, are rates going to tick back up to 5% or not? lots of treasury funding coming to the market this month as well as the first quarter of 2024, so there's still a lot to consider. but that doesn't mean that long-term investors need to, you know, suddenly change their plan. they need to have their plan, make sure it's where they're comfortable and then stick to the plan. david: kenny, everybody's talking about retailers on black friday. how do you think they're going to do this year in the holiday season? >> well, listen, you know what's really funny is that you'll hear some people say that the consumer's completely stretched out, right? that you're choking on debt, and then you hear others talk about how it's going to be this great shopping season, and they expect, you know, the season for consumers to spend double digits, 15, 20% more than they did last year. part of that is because prices are higher, so you not necessarily going to be buying more, you're going to be buying more expensive things. but i do i think today and into next week you're going to see

these retailers do really well because there'll certainly be stuff on sale, and people will react because you know they always do. best buy put on a big pushes i'm going to buy a television, it's going to be the best day to buy a new tv, all that kind of stuff. so i suspect that they'll do well today. i'm not so sure about the total season though. david: final one for you. kenny, i'm wondering what chef poll carry was serving yesterday. you are a gourmet -- oh, we even got a picture, i don't know if that was from yesterday. >> no, that was -- david: all right, that was previous. what did you serve yesterday? quickly. >> listen, you've got to start with the raviolis. in an italian household. but then you're going to do all the turkeys with the stuffings, the stuffed peppers and the mashed potatoes, green beans, and then dessert, cheesecake and plenty of italian cookies is and cheese and nuts. david: lauren simonetti is shaking her head. lauren: i'm a littleing opposed

to the raviolis, kenny. everyone got too full, so i'm surprised you're doing that instead of a chicken soup -- david kidd that's a lot to eat, kenny. >> well, you know, depends on the year. sometimes it is chicken soup or italian wedding soup, but sometimes it's got to be the ravioli. david said well, you look very good. i don't know how you do it. a little bit of everything, i guess that's the secret, right in. >> that's the secret. david: kenny polcari, or great to see you. lauren: bye, gwenny. david: a group of protesters i glued their hands to sixth avenue attempting to stop the macy's thanksgiving day parade. they were not successful. we're teasing that one for you. and hamas is beginning to release the first set of hostages, 13 women and children. trey yingst has the report from the air base, that's next. ♪ ♪ (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪

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david: well, a temporary ceasefire is underway in israel and gaza. hamas is about to begin the release of the first set of hostages. trey yingst is at the air base in israel. trey, good to see you. give us the latest. >> reporter: great to see you. and there is a lot of anticipation in the moments ahead. we understand those 13 hostages, women and children, will be reelited any moment into the hands -- released into the hands of the red cross. they'll then be taken to the air base behind me, still not sure whether by helicopter or bus. there are a lot of contingency plans in place based on the condition of the hostages. the israelis have prepared ambulances here. they will be taken from this

base after they are evaluated and have calls with family e members to regional hospitals. this is all a taking place as the israelis want to make sure that the identities are protected of these hostages. we do expect to get the names and ages of the hostages released once they are safely back in israel. remember, this group does consist of 13 people, all women and children. they are reportedly mostly from the same kibbutz, likely a community near the gaza border. they are being exchanged for 24 female palestinian prisoners and 15 male palestinian teenagers. it has been more than 9 hours since the ceasefire went into effect, and the with the -- and it does appear to be holding. if it goes well, we'll see 50 # israeli hostages released for 150 palestinian prisoners. now, despite the ceasefire, the israelis are calling on less residents -- residents in gaza not to leave the south. some palestinians tried to return to their homes in northern gaza today. we're also following reports

indicating that up to 12 thai hostages taken into gaza on october 7th could be released as well as a part of a parallel deal. back to you. david: all right, trey, a lot of thanksgiving prayers going out to the hostages and all the innocent people being killed and hurt there and for you specifically. i know a lot of people say tell trey we're praying for him, so thank you for your work. congressman andy barr, republican from kentucky, joins me now. congressman, what will america's funding for israel get passed? test getting hung -- it's getting hung up on a lot of issues, right? >> david, it needs to pass the senate right away. house republicans along with 12 democrats have done the job that the united states needs to do to provide assistance to our ally in israel, $14.3 billion in additional assistance. but we paid for it in the house. we paid for it with offsets from reductions, rescissions in spending on the irs.

and, unfortunately, on a party-line vote chuck schumer's democrat-controlled senate rejected assistance to israel. and we want to see the senate do their job and support our allies in israel. david: yeah. they need the money now. there is also question specifically to the battles going on there whether israel can maintain the momentum it has against hamas despite the pause. what do you think? >> well, absolutely. and it's important to understand what the terms of this deal actually are. this is not a permanent ceasefire. in fact, the reason why the terms of the deal are favorable overall to israel and where where we think 50 of the most prized hostages will be released is precisely because israel has rejected calls for a ceasefire. and the terms of this deal do not require the idf, the israeli defense forces, to retreat out of gaza, but to maintain and hold ground in northern gaza that they have, they have

already taken. and offensive operations will resume after four days after these hostages are released. and that's important because the united states needs to support israel to root out all of these terrorists that were responsible for these atrocities on october 7th. david: absolutely. >> and support the release of all these hostages. david: congressman, i want to switch to another area. china's share of the global economy is tumbling. over the past couple of years, it's had its largest decline in gdp since mao tse-tung was in power. you are on the china select committee. does this big shift in the world order make china safer or maybe even more dangerous? >> well, it could make 'em more dangerous xi jinping could see the window of opportunity with an invasion of taiwan closing. and many of our intelligence officials say that 2027 is the window of danger.

and when we see weakness from the biden administration may if out on the world stage like -- play out on the world stage like we did with this san francisco summit, i think that invites the aggression that we all want to avoid. and there is a reason why taiwan is in jeopardy right now, because we don't see any deterrence from the biden administration on the world stage. at those meetings with xi jinping, there was no response whatsoever to the provocations in the south china sea or incursions into taiwan air a space or the human rights violations in hong kong or xinjiang or tibet or the spy balloon. no repercussions whatsoever. david: yeah. >> and that's why we call it zombie diplomacy, weakness. and that invites aggression. david: congressman, thank you very much for coming day after thanksgiving. have a wonderful weekend. appreciate you being here. bell, meanwhile, macy's held its annual thanksgiving day parade yesterday, but it was marred by anti-israeli protesters who tried to put a stop to it.

what happened, lauren? lauren: they superglued their hands to the pavement, diverting the parade. then they covered themselves in fake blood. this was with innocent children and families watching the gallons -- balloons and festivities. then they chanted things like from the river to the sea, palestine will be free -- david: right. lauren: and they accused americans of being able to celebrate thanksgiving when there's genocide in gaza. david: yeah. so calling to wipe out israel in front of a lot of kids with all the blood and hysterics, etc. lauren, thank you very much. let's check the futures. they're pretty flat today, the day after thanksgiving. by the way, it's a day of trading only up until 1:00. so it's the kind of a slow day, generally speaking. both the dow and the s&p are up slightly, the nasdaq is down slightly. the opening bell is coming next. stay tuned. ♪ so good, so good, so fine.

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or more, we'll send you this adorable love to the rescue blanket as a thank you and a reminder of all the smiles you're bringing to kids faces every day. will today be the day you send your love to the rescue? when you call the number on your screen right now and give as little as $19 a month, just $0.63 a day, you'll be making a life changing difference for a child just like sarah. your monthly gift today could change your life forever. because of you, we are happy and we know it. thank you. thank you. thank you. thank you. please call or go online right now to give if operators are busy, please wait patiently or go to loveshriners.org right away david: let's check the markets only a couple of minutes before they open.

basically unchanged from the way they were on wednesday. slow trading day, shortened trading day, it ends at 1 p.m. mark mahaney joins me. you downgraded airbnb. why? if. >> well, it comes within, relatively close to our price target. it's had a nice run. valuation is relatively full, and we looked at it as a portfolio, the three wonderful plays in online travel, booking.com -- used to be called priceline -- expedia and airbnb, and we upgraded expedia with. so within that portfolio, the downgrade. david: airbnb, i think there was just another crackdown by new york city that had already cracked dun on airbnb, and i know it's happening not just in the united states, but other countries, other cities in other countries around the world. is that one reason, anything to do with your downgrade? >> no, but that is a headwind for the company. new york city's relatively small, the it's a percent of

airbnb's total business, but, no, those kind of restrictions i don't think -- those are a headwind, but it's a small, manageable one for airbnb. what looked particularly interesting to us is on the flipside is expedia, and online travel is a great category. it's about $200 billion in market cap all in amongst these three names. they generate a lot of free cash flow, highly profitable, all three companies buy back a lot of stuff, just really good businesses, generally pretty good management teams. expedia, however, trades at 10 times earnings, and air a bnb is at 30 times earnings. as the growth rates converge, usually the multiples converge, so it just seemed like there was more upside with expedia. there's also a been a series of changes that they made with expedia which set up the company for potential revenue growth acceleration and margin expansion next year, so for us it was valuation and kind of a fundamental inflection point on expedia, so we upgraded expedia, 200 is the price target.

david: wow. are we completely back to pre-pan pandemic levels in the travel stocks? >> in terms of prices, yes. in terms of the fundamentals, for the most part. there's still participants of the world, particularly asian-pacific, china outbound travel that's still depressed verse sis pre-covid revels. but in the u.s., latin america, the middle east barring october 7th and western europe, travel levels, travel demand is higher than it was pre-covid. david: yeah. >> that's a good thing, and it's a healthy thing. david: i think only problem is they have trouble getting help, quickly. >> yes. yes, that's true. that's true. but in that space, we continue to like expedia, and booking still remains an outperform. david: great to see you, mark. have a wonderful weekend. thank you for being here. the opening bell, as you can highwayer, is clanging. -- hear, is clanging. it is a shorteninged trading day, we stop trading at 1 p.m. eastern time. look to be a little flat

although a little stronger than it was in premarket activity. can we look at the dow stocks? you can see some in the red, but overwhelming majority, about three-fourths of the stocks are trading in the green. let's switch to the s&p, see how that's doing. that was trading a little flatter than the dow, and in fact it's down just a sliver down on the s&p right now. the nasdaq is down as well. that was down in premarket activity, the only one that seemed to stay down. it sometimes trades with regard to what's happening in interest rates. we'll get to that in a moment. but microsoft, apple, amazon, meta, alphabet, they are all trading down but well under a programming point loss for all of -- percentage point loss for all of those major big tick stocks. more drama at openai. what happened, lauren? lauren: reuters is reporting that researchers at openai warned the board of this technological breakthrough that could, quote, threaten humanity. david: oh, my goodness.

lauren: the board is apparently spooked by this, and shortly after the ceo, sam altman, was fired. i think that warning, if true, helps explain that random and sudden turn of events at the company. david: how so? lauren: well, this technology, it is autonomous generative a. a a.i., meaning super intelligent. it can surpass the ability of humans. of course, that creeps people out, and the constant conversation in silicon valley but elsewhere too is at what point do you tap the brake withs, and at what point do you speed ahead where it supplants the human worker. david: opening ai had big regrets about firing him last friday, and they have gotten red of the members of the board that were his biggest enemies, brought him back, so this might end up being a good thing for everybody. lauren: i think it is going to be. i think you have to take the handcuffs off a little bit and just press forward as best you can. david: all right. let's talk about a delay in the chip launch for nvidia?

lauren lawyer this was the h200, meant to get around the new export controls on china, one of three chips for china. in one, the h200, was supposed the launch this month, but reuters is reporting it's been pushed back to the first quarter of next year. apparently, there are issues with server manufacturers and integrating the h200, but now so many companies are packaging chips, using them in a series together to get higher data computing power -- david: all right. it's it's black friday today, amazon is in the news. they're dealing with strikes, is that right? lauren: black friday is celebrated in europe too, which i did not know. did you know that? david: i did not know that. lauren: more than 30 countries in europe have workers going out on strike at amazon facilities. germany is their second biggest market overall. they're seeing hundreds of workers walk out of warehouses there. obviously, organized by a union, and they plan to strike throughout the weekend.

completely no impact on amazon's stock. david: one thing i may get from amazon, irobot, because they make the roomba, vacuum people, they just scored a win, lauren. lauren: do you remember last week i was at the amazon robotics facility -- david: i saw that. lauren: hey, they were saying that little reporter -- [laughter] that little robot looks like a roomba, and i thought that was funny because amazon is trying to buy irobot, the maker of roomba, and the latest is the european union has sealed the deal for them to take this company over, $1.4 billion. it was announced as an acquisition last summer, then antia trust regulators said, whoa, not so fast, they opened an investigation, and it appears they're about to close this deal. so you can see irobot is now $39.17 a pop? if amazon is buying them for $51.75 a share. when this eventually goes through, i wonder if if irebot

shares go up to that purchase price. they'd they'd we want to take that look at -- take a look at apple, they're apparently having problems with iphone sales, right? lauren a lauren in china. nationalism is pushing many in china to buy domestic like huawei. they look at sales from the end of october to november 13th -- 12th, which is the day after singles day, major shopping holiday, and they found that apple sales were down 4% in china while, get this, huawei was up 66%. and show me up 28%. by the way, i looked up the price tags of those phones, not much cheaper than the iphone. david: all right. let's move to fisker. they finally submitted their delayed third quarter results. lauren: the stock's only up 3, 4%. they found no material prior period misstatement. so earlier this month they delayed that filing. they had identified some expenses that were reported incorrectly and have since been reported appropriately.

they also announced another accounting leadership change. lots going on at this ev maker, but the stock is only up 3%. it's down 70% on the year. david: okay. let's check the big board one more time and, again, pretty flat. the dow is doing okay. about a 52-point gain on the dow. nasdaq is still -- well, i think nasdaq is up a little bit. the dow winners, as you can see here, american express, unitedhealth, caterpillar, coke coal -- coca-cola, travelers all trading up. and the s&p winners, everest group, bath and body works, cf industries. how is that, act -- ap steve? what do they do? i don't know either. well, nasdaq, we've got astrazeneca doing quite with well, crowdstrike, dex come and align technology all a doing very well. check the 10-year, we were wondering about that. it is trading up a slight bit, 5.2 basis points, up to 4.4%.

look at gold, gold is well over 2020 right now, a lot of worry about what's happening in the world, sometimes that increases the price of gold. and bitcoin is up about $400, up to $37,665 per coin. crude oil is trading down again, well under $80 a barrel at $76.12 a barrel. it's down about a full dollar. natural gas is trading down as well, about 2.5%. by the way, the average price for a gallon of regular is now $3.26. for diesel it's down to $4.25. coming up, check out this headline. three ways to decenter whiteness in your workplace. what the heck is decenter? senator j.d. vance says he's now investigating the author of that piece. and 2024 democrat candidate dean phillips is now apologizing for what he said about vice

president harris. we'll tell you what critic he's now taking back -- or what criticism he's now taking back. also black friday shopping is underway, but this year's shopping list may be a lot shorter. we've got the report from the cherry hill mall in new jersey coming next live. ♪ ♪ all we need is love ♪ ♪ limu emu & doug ♪ [bell ringing] and doug says, “you can customize and save hundreds on car insurance with liberty mutual.” he hits his mark —center stage— and is crushed by a baby grand piano.

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david: so today is black friday, that means the holiday shopping season is in full swing. jeff flock is at the cherry hill mall in new jersey i know it well. jeff, you're talking to shoppers. they spending more or less this year? >> reporter: you know, i didn't expect this, but, you know, given the prices the way they're going these days, but most of the people said, yeah,

they are spending more this christmas because things cost more. but they're not cutting back in any way. at least people we talked to. take a look at the numbers, david. holiday shopping had been increasing spending for the last several years. a couple years ago it was up double digits. this year the national retail federation says it'll be up but only about 3-4%. the average family spends about $875, the nrf says. we talked to some people for some up close and personal questions about a holiday shopping. will be. >> -- listen. >> they up the price and you're getting it for the normal price. >> i see a lot of people struggling, but you just appreciate the things that you have, and we try to, you know, contribute and help each other where we can. >> maybe just focus a little bit more on the things that are important, family, spending time together, bringing holiday cheer. >> reporter: holiday cheer, yep, that's a good thing. and out here at the mall you get

the holiday cheer. you don't get it online, but that's where most people say they shop these days. the retail federation asked folks where where they system, most of them online. the department stores, about 49%. same for discount stores, and about a quarter of shoppers named small businesses and small business friday, i think, this weekend. so that's a good thing. here's the bad news, david, we may be spending more, but we're also putting more on the credit card. look at the number from the new york fed, one trillion with a t dollars on credit cards as of third quarter. david: wow. >> reporter: it's not even the christmas season yet. so -- david: unbelievable. >> reporter: you know, people are spending, but i don't know whose money they're spending. david: you get 25% interest rates if you can't pay on time on those credit cards, and it goes up to 29%. it's -- people are going to be facing a big price tag for that debt. jeff, thank you -- >> reporter: not you and me though, we're cheap.

[laughter] david: that's right. i pay cash. jeff, thank you very much. appreciate it. wallethub released its list of the stores offering the best brook friday deals. they say jcpenney has the best discounts overall for the fifth consecutive year. then macy's belt which is an online company, kohl's and target. they round out the top the five. gerald storch joins me now. gerald, great to see you. he is, of course, man made famous or perhaps made toys "r" us famous. i'm not sure who made who famous, but it's great to see you. you've got your finger on the pulse of retail. are people, because of all the crime in stores and err problems, are -- and other problem, are people going to be doing more online shopping this year? >> i think on balance it may shift a little bitten online, but factors you mentioned earlier were much more significant in what's going on with retail sales. the consumer spent a lot during the pandemic. they have something of a hangover from all that. they don't really need too much else, and besides, the money's

running out. credit card balance are going up, delinquencies are going up. so this is going to be one of the toughest holidays in terms of growth in spending year-over-year that we've seen probably in 15 years. david: and just to put a phone t issue, 25% of americans have 2022 debt left over from last year. and that is -- 25% are paying debt at, what is it, it's also about 25% interest rate on that credit card debt. that's a huge cost to the monthly bills. >> yeah, absolutely. interest rates have also gone up a quarter since the fed has raised interest rates. it's the most expensive form of financing, and whether it's a business or a household, when they start using that,s you know they're getting stressed. david: and then we have inflation. and while some people say it's dead or at least it's not going to go up any further, other people are wondering how the government can keep spending

more without inflation eventually going up more because of that. what do you think? >> well, i think it's still a big i have been shoe. and let's take -- issue. let's take last month's retail sales numbers. sales overall were up 2.5% year e over year, but inflation was 3.2%. the math quickly tells you people are getting less but spending more. and that's why the numbers we're seeing out of major retailers have all been negative. it's an open book exam. we got all the reports last week and the week before for the quarter that ended at halloween, best buy, nordstrom, lowe's, macy's down, kohl's, down, target was down 5 percent. i mean, they're almost all negative except for walmart who was up 5%, but the consumer's in trouble. and when do people shop walmart more? when the economy is tough. david: i heard you say that on maria's show and elsewhere, and we do have these studies that are coming out saying that, no, it's going to be a great, one of

the best retail sales seasons we've ever had, etc. have you gotten, have you gotten sort of criticism for your kind of negative view of retail or just, are these people just talking their book? >> some people are plague loose with words, right? -- playing loose with words. if it's a dollar larger than last year, you can say it's a record, but it's still less than it was during an inflation-adjusted basis. david: great point. >> and just today one of the major analysts lored their expectations, that should lay they lowed it from 2-3%, my estimate is closer to 1-2% growth. if that, again, keep in mind almost every retailer who rosed last week and the week before, they gave earnings, they said the consumer is tough, we're expecting a very tough farther quarter. and they're already in the fourth quarter. it's already thanksgiving. they had three weeks of sales for the holiday behind them already, you know, and they know it's not going well, so that's

the truth. david: yeah. and the numbers don't lie. i want to go quickly from micro to the macro picture because what's happening9 with the fed right now, they're not going to be buying -- the treasury's issuing another $1.6 trillion in debt, but the fed's not buying as much as they used to. so doesn't that mean if that interest rates are going to have to go up so the treasury can dell sell its debt? >> well, it's a balance. there's a lot of upward pressure, obviously, on interest rates, but also the economy does get more recessionary, the demand will go down and maybe interest rates can stabilize. look, in the last retail report furniture sales were down 12% the same period last year, 12%. building materials down 6. those are not good numbers and indicate that the interest rates are starting to take a bite out of housing. david: gerald, you're a wealth of information. a pleasure to have you on. gerald storch, have a great weekend. and it's not too late to send in your friday feedback. today is the day, we're going to

be listening to a lot of them. of course, institute is going to be watching -- stuart is going to be watching, so he'll probably get back to you on it. let us know if you plan on spending big this brach friday. varney viewers@fox mom. we'll play that at the end of the show -- varneyviewersfox.com. meanwhile, voters say the american dream is harder to achieve, democrat benefactors are sell -- telling the president they are worried about a his inability to sell his own economic agenda. that report coming next. ♪ you shook me all night long. ♪ yeah, you shook me all night long ♪ teeth sensitivity is so common.

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♪ david: well, there's a new poll out showing voters do not believe the american dream still holds true. hillary vaughn joining me now. hillary, this has to spell trouble for president biden. >> reporter: david, it does. some voters saying they think the american dream is out of reach for them after a new poll from "wall street journal"/n if orc found that only 36 president of voters -- 36% of voters think the american dream still holds true for them. this as president biden made the

economy, specifically bidenomics, his big pitch for his re-election campaign. but even some democrats are doubting biden can beat former president trump after an nbc follow found him trailing trump in a head to head matchup and others are souring on biden's age after he just celebrated his birthday this week. but the white house is not, saying they don't think it's about the age of the president, it's about his experience, something that they say has helped him create more jobs, raise wages and lower inflation. but some top democrats behind the scenes are worried that a small drop in inflation is not enough to give biden the big boost he needs to win. "the washington post" reports that at a private e donor retreat in as pep, one democrat asked former chief of staff the ron klain what the back-up plan, if biden is too old and continues to drop in the polls, claiming there is no back hutch plan -- back-up plan. republicans continue to call bind out of touch for thinking the economy is --

>> this president, to say bidenomics working, i don't know what world he lives in. you ask any american today are they better off now than they were four years ago where gas prices were a fraction of what they were, egg prices, you name it, supply chain shortages. >> reporter: david, the white house is correct that prices have taken a dip when you compare it to what some things cost compared to last year, but when you compare it to what the prices were before biden became president, they are still way up. david? david: hillary vaughn, i hope you had a wonderful holiday celebration yesterday -- >> reporter: thank you. i hope you did too. david: yeah. it was kind of quiet, or but you've got a bursting new family there to entertain. i hope you had a great time. thank you, hillary, appreciate it. still ahead, tammy bruce, dr. marty makary, jason rantz and brian men berle. the 10 a.m. hour of "varney & company" is next. ♪ ♪

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