right now. liz: and really quickly, when in 2024 do you think interest rates would start coming back down and people can really pile in? >> you know what? i think towards the end of second quarter, probably we'll start seeing it may, if not a little bit sooner depending on the economy. liz: ed, thank you. hope you had a good holiday. appreciate you coming in sharing your perspective. we have pared most of the losses on the dow. still down 46 points. tomorrow don't miss it former federal reserve bank of st. louis ceo james bullard joins us live. [closing bell rings] we're weeks away from the final fed meeting of the year. stocks down across the board. ♪ larry: hello, folks, welcome to "kudlow," i'm larry kudlow. an agreement has been reached to extend the israel-hamas truce for another two days.

let's get right to it with all the ramifications and implications with john roberts coanchor of "america reports" on fox news. joan, welcome as always. john, i know you covered this on your show. can you just update us? i'm listening, actually we have some sound if i'm not mistaken of john kirby talking about how these cease-fires for hostages may be extended even longer. you probably heard kirby say that but let me refresh. if we can run that sound. >> in order to extend the pause hamas has committed to releasing another 20 women and children over the next two days. we would of course hope to see the pause extended further and that will depend upon hamas continuing to release hostages. larry: so, john, besides the extra two days i understood that to mean beyond that hopes to see the pause extended further. i'm sure you saw the wall street editorial, hamas holds everybody

hostage. how long is this going to go on and what's behind this? >> that is why hamas did this on october the 7th. it needed bargaining chips with its backs against the wall with the israeli response. get a cease-fire around extend it as possibly long as it could. we expect to the former u.n. ambassador danny danon about all that, while it is great to get all the hostages back, israel has to get back on a military footing because they can't after how hamas to survive. they can't run the risk october 7th happens again. we had 11 hostages released late this evening or early this evening in israel. it was nine people age 18 and younger and two, one was in their 30s, the other one was a 51-year-old woman. that's always good news, but, larry you know, hamas is playing this for all it can. it is trying to build

international sympathy for a lengthy cease-fire if note a permanent cease-fire and if israel agrees to that, which netanyahu insists he won't, that means hamas survives and israel has to live with hamas at its doorstep again with the idea that hamas has said that october 7th will happen again and again and again. larry: i mean it is as though, john, it is a peculiar kind of war. it is as though the enemy is calling the tune here and that can't be a good thing. to some extent netanyahu put himself into that, i call it a trap. i don't know whether trap is the right word but netanyahu has played with the hostage game. he has got domestic politics to deal with. joe biden is encouraging the hostage game. in fact there are some rumors, i saw some reports today, semafor and some others how democrats want conditionality placed on any new aid to israel. i don't know if you heard anything about that up on

capitol hill. known of this sounds like -- sounds like israeli momentum is in danger of being stopped? >> it really is. that is what netanyahu is concerned about, and danny danon, gallant, the rest of the leadership in israel is concerned about. international pressure will gee to the point where it will be very difficult for israel to get back into kinetic military operations. danone told us look we don't care what the international community says we have to go after hamas. the question when do you restart military operations under what condition do you do it? do you do with more than 100 people being held hostage, which would put them at risk? do you wait until you get as many hostages as you can and hope for the best as you go forward? to you put israeli forces, special operations forces, the 13 to rescue a lot of those hostages? that would probably come at extraordinary risk to military lives on the israeli side. there are so many unknowns at

this point and again that's exactly why hamas did what it did on october 7th, capturing all those women, those children, those helpless people and holding them for more than 50 days now. if hamas didn't have those hostages the leadership of hamas probably would have been eliminated by now but israel has had to go slow. it had to proceed cautiously. now in the face of growing international pressure for a lengthy, if not permanent cease-fire it has to make a lot of very difficult decisions how it prosecutes that war going forward. larry: one other one, john, why doesn't joe biden and his spokespeople, the whole crowd of them, defense, state, everybody, kirby, why don't they talk more about the americans still being held hostage, all right? i think that is an incredible thing. they hardly ever mention it. i think i'm being objective about that point empirically and furthermore, why aren't they issuing strong, stern threats,

not just to hamas, john, but to the paymaster, the puppet master, which is, wait for it, iran? why aren't they dealing with that channel? you know among other things these cease-fires, iran will, they may resupply them, they may refinance them because iran has been the paymaster from day one. i don't hear anything about that angle and to me that's a crucial angle? >> larry, i don't have any answers for you because those are exactly the same questions we've been asking every day on "america reports." there is an awful lot of why going on here. clearly biden has got political problems at home because his steadfast support for israel has lost himself support among arab-americans. so he also is trying to hang on to them by emphasizing the need for the palestinian people to be put into safe zones in gaza. for israel to be very careful about civilian casualties as it

prosecutes the military operation and for relief supply to come into gaza as well. every time the president mentions anti-semitism, islamophobia, if not in the same sentence it's in the following sentence. so he is definitely got political concerns to worry about. as to why he is not tougher on iran, that is baffling to me. it is probably all wrapped up in his fervent desire for iran to get back into the jcpoa even though the international atomic energy agency says iran has been cheating on that agreement. larry: right. >> to the point where it now has enough nuclear materiel for three nuclear bombs. larry: right, right. >> you wonder, why don't you get tough like reagan did? why don't you get tough like president trump did? as you mentioned many, many times, iran understands one thing and that's force. larry: yes. >> they will only back of when force is applied. larry: only when they are attacked on their turf, with

their people. anyway, i know, we're asking same question. john roberts great to help us out. don't forget to catch john, his coanchor sandra smith, "america reports" every day weekdays from 1:00 to 3:00 p.m. eastern on fox news. all right, i want to give my own quick riff here. it is a joy to see the happiness of evergrande parent, parent, brother, sister, other family members, friends over the release of the hostages by hamas. it is a joy. israeli leader netanyahu made it a priority along with the ultimate annihilation of the hamas terrorists. many people are taking credit for the hostage release but without question the single biggest factor is that the israeli idf has successfully pressured hamas. that's what's driving the release. but the terrorists wouldn't be releasing hostages if they were not getting clobbered on the battlefield or in the tunnels.

even with the joy of hostage returns there are costs as this morning's "wall street journal" editorial put it very, very well, hamas holds everyone hostage. the terrorists traffic in human beings to achieve their bloody aims. there is no telling how long hamas will dribble out five to 10 hostages per day in order to extend the cease-fire week after week after week. meanwhile as president biden keeps pushing out humanitarian aid the terrorists are able to refuel, resupply, maybe even rearm, or, take in more financing from their iranian paymasters who are orchestrating this entire hamas story. or, perhaps, perhaps, hamas is fleeing the scene into egypt or who knows where they will flee. meanwhile, idf momentum could be

slowed. idf intelligence could be harmed. as i said to john roberts in effect the enemy is setting the terms of this pause. this is very troublesome and equally troublesome again there are still remaining american hostages held by hamas, and joe biden hardly says a word about this. why isn't he raising bloody hell about the failure to release the american hostages, day after day he should be talking about that? he should be threatening iran who is behind this hostage travesty. iran and its terrorist allies have launched after all 80 some odd strikes against american military assets in the middle east and all of the bidens have done is a few pinprick responses. why aren't they stopping iranian oil ships to china, or bombing iranian oil fields or hitting iranian command-and-control or hitting iranian training centers? instead biden continues to appease iran rather than deter

it. the mullahs only understand force. they only understand serious attacks on themselves, or their assets, or their land. american hostages are locked up someplace in gaza and what exactly is joe biden doing about it? well i would say practically nothing and i would say that is a tragedy. that's my quick riff. anyway, let's talk some more about this whole story. let's talk about it with aaron cohen, prince aaron cohen, former israeli counteroffensive operative. it is good to see you. i had a little time off. you probably haven't had any time off. aaron cohen, can i just ask you, what in your view is the war risk of the cease-fires which may continue for a lot longer than four days or six days or 10 days if hamas keeps dribbling out hostage releases? what's the risk here, aaron?

>> the risk here is losing the operational momentum larry as john pointed out. it is no secret that hamas is using this time right now to regroup, rearm, rest up, figure out where they're going to get those dollars around funds from, to continue getting missiles out up into israel but here is where i am at with this, larry. this one will sting the white house a little bit. you know h know me i don't get political but here is where i'm at. president biden right now is being manipulated through psychological warfare by hamas. that's what is happening. larry: yes, yes,. >> hamas has successfully infiltrated joe biden's head, the white house, his people, his staff and they're pulling at the very strings which is what hamas does, use manipulation to get exactly what they're trying to do. it is not just israel hamas is trying to manipulate. joe biden is now a product of

hamas terrorism psychological warfare. that's where i come out. larry: wow. no. it makes all the sense in the world and biden is falling prey -- >> doesn't even realize it, he doesn't even realize it, larry. larry: perhaps not. by the way on that last point he may be a willing partner, i don't know. he has got domestic political issues which is the lowest form of politics, the lowest form of politics to worry about a few precincts around the country for a national election a year away where israel is in the great time of need. israeli pressure, massive israeli pressure led hamas to these hostage releases in the first place, is that fair, aaron? i mean is that fair? and to stop that now it will be psychological warfare, they might release more hostages for psychological purposes and to refinance and rearm, what about that? there is that angle too.

iran is not standing by, are they? iran is in the middle of this thing even though the bidens never talk about iran. >> israel has every piece of intelligence on iran. everyone in the world iran and its mullahs use this perverse sieve state of islam. their view on the world is as i have said before is complete caliphate and hamas is just the tip of the spear here with israel and the longer president biden continues to pander, the longer he continues to play games and keep israel on a leash the more at risk he will put u.s. national security interests ultimately the onus willaw enfo. there is only so mucterrorist bw enforcement for 20 years. with all the youth popping off. they think this is socia. hamas is a murderous organization, death in kibb look

what the karn arrange looked like, what the death kibbutzes looked like. president biden is making a big mistake tactically for israel. israel will continue to snoop and poop, what i call it gather intelligence quietly in tunnels. he is playing biden like a puppet right now. probably in the southern portion of israel. it was declassified recently that sinwar addressed the last group of hostages said they were safe. what that reads to me coming from the intel world that sinwar is using hostages as human shield. that is the only reason israel hasn't taken him out. the fact he could have been killed. the only reason he is alive israel is allowing him to live. he is pulling at the psychological strings of biden knowing americans and western countries are aligned with israel's morals and values. he needs to let israel get off the leash. israel has one foot on the

clutch and one foot on the gas. the minute they let the foot of off the clutch them which get the hostages back. that is the first priority, get those people back. ones we get them back, time to let the foot off off the clutch. larry: the only reason the hostage thing started up because israel was getting their work done. they were keeping pressure on, keeping the pressure on, keeping the pressure on. if the pressure is taken off, i don't know whether three or four days matter how many days matter but weeks might matter and if they take pressure off over many weeks that emboldens hamas, that emboldens iran and emboldens israel's enemies. let my make this clear point, aaron, it emboldens the enemies of the united states. this is the point that i believe this current administration doesn't understand. we are at war with iran. we are at war with hamas. just that we don't hear that

kind of language. they're at war with us. so why don't we strike back? that is the part every don't get including iran? >> because the president is being completely manipulated right now via psychological warfare. that is is whatting. idf is ready toe bet back to work. idf has done an incredible job. they will teach the war campaign at war colleges. they are successful as amount of terrorists killed. numbers put out by world health organization are given by hamas. 15,000 civilians kill in airstrikes and those campaign are completely exacerbated. many of them, 50, 60, 70% of them are likely hamas militants. 40% of the youth in gaza is between the ages of 1and 17 and 34 is hamas fighting age. hamas will sprinkle those numbers in.

the world knows hamas is twisting and manipulating. that i'm surprised bide edge allowed that to infiltrate with the oval office. he needs to get his head straight. i don't get political but we are talking about saving lives. prevention ever total disruption of free world through a monster caliphate developing right now. it is time to get serious and honest and stop pandering is enough. larry: amen, amen, amen. aaron cohen, thank you. as always. >> got a copy of my memoir there. let me know what you think. larry: i tell you what, i got them. i will commit them to memory as soon as i possibly can but i thank you for your lovely and kind inscription. i appreciate it. >> always appreciate you, appreciate you, larry. larry: aaron cohen the best of the best. coming up back here on "kudlow," republican senators want tighter asylum rules for illegal migrants as condition for backing ukraine aid. we have alabama senator katie

britt to talk about all of that. she will be here in just a minute. and then, guess what? we are 50 days from the iowa state caucus. governor ron desantis is throwing a hail mary, all right? he is throwing everything he has got. the question is, is it going to work? we'll ask charlie hurt and we'll ask rich lowery of "national review." stick with "kudlow." i love hail marys folks, but i'm not sure this one has much of a chance. we'll be right back after this. ♪. ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines.

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so call unitedhealthcare for your free decision guide... and get help protecting yourself from those out-of-pocket costs medicare doesn't pay. oh, and happy birthday... or retirement... in advance. ♪. larry: all right, so, congress has come back and now a big question is, on this money bill, this foreign aid supplement bill, ukraine, israel, taiwan, and the border, are we going to get any bored reforms? are we going to get anything that will stop the flood of illegal migrants? that is sort of front and center on the table. maybe some democrats are interested in that. joining us now alabama senator katie britt, author of by the way, god calls us to do hard things. lessons from the alabama wire grass. senator britt, good to see you.

big "wall street journal" story today, probably saw it, discussion, all right, discussion, the possibility that some democrats might be willing to make some changes at the border. they're talking about changing the standard for asylum which strikes me as fairly weak-kneed but i want to get your make to it. you may be in the middle of this thing. what do you think? >> well we have to do something. so i am glad to hear that some democrats are actually waking up to that reality. when you look at the border we have 8,000 people on average a day coming across our border. we've seen at eagle pass, larry, them shutting down legal entries. now at that one entry point alone, we average about $34 billion worth of trade activity. so every day we could be losing about $100 million just by shutting that down. i guess that is the newest prong of "bidenomics." what we need democrats to realize is that we actually have

to have strength. we actually have to secure our border. we have to be provide deterrents and then the asylum process, making sure we strengthen that. go from credible fear to reasonable fear. closing some loopholes we see them using is a critical part of that. that is one part. we have to have a multiprong approach. one other thing we need to understand how many children are being abused according to the biden asylum process. since 2019, we see the biden administration continue to weaken the standards at the border, we saw child after child, 600 children have been retrafficked across the border t helps them claim asylum. helps them get in here. there was one child in the group, larry, trafficked eight different times over our border. one in three victims of trafficking is children. that is who the victims of this process. strengthening that asylum

standard, closing that loophole, marsha blackburn is talking about closing that loophole. larry: you're sponsoring on the kids trafficking business. that is very important. in the house you have got hr two, very important piece of legislation for policy changes along the border. now, i know that weren't pass in the senate but, it will take 60 votes to get anything done in the senate. so you have some leverage. 49 republican senators. what about building a wall? what about remain in mexico, which was so successful with the cooperation of the mexican authorities, mexican president? it was nieto first, obrador second. i was there at the time involved in that. first the mexicans didn't want to do it.

we threatened them with trade tariffs other things, they wound up doing it. i don't see why -- if you're going to have better standards for asylum, which is a little bit weak-kneed it seems to me, wait in mexico, let them wait there before any asylum decisions are made? is anybody talking about that on the other side of the aisle? >> i can't speak to the other side of the aisle. we're continuing to sound alarms on the republican side. we believe had shouldn't be a republican or democrat issue. this is an american issue. to your point, hr.2, senator cruz has a companion bill here in the senate, i'm proud to be a cosponsor of that. that finishes building the wall, actually tightens asylum standards, puts back remain in mexico policy, defunds ngos, as you know with biden in the current supplemental what he put forth is absolute disaster. all it does is encourage more illegal migration into our nation. it rolls out a red carpet for

them. it gives them white glove service once they get here. what we need to be doing is actually spending money on securing our border. which also means in addition to these things, make sure we have more i.c.e. officers. we're spending money on removal and transitorytation. of the 6.5 million people on the non-detained docket, you have about 1.3 million of them. so you have 20% that have been given due process under our laws and set to be removed. the biden administration needs to be removing these individuals. if we were detaining people on the border if we were actually removing individuals that needed to go home, certaining people back, that would be a deterrent. just as you were talking in your previous segment it seems the biden administration doesn't understand deterrents. whether it is with iran whether it is on our border, and you know who is paying the price, larry? it is the american people. larry: senator, on that point, we got a minute left, i wasn't going to ask, burr i want to ask, when is joe biden going to start directly talking about the

american hostages taken by hamas? all right? we got this little girl back, god bless. this is a good thing, somewheres, 10 people or fewer. i don't know how many. nobody seems to have a straight answer, kish birx nobody. when is biden going to start threatening iran which is the puppeteer and the paymaster of hamas about these americans being held hostage? they are americans. that is an act of war as you well know. >> absolutely, larry. 93% of hamas's funding comes from iran. we know how to fix this. we have got to put back in bone-crushing sanctions on iran. we have to actually mean business here. we, we are seeing these hostages come home and larry, i was watching the footage prior to this, as a mama, and seeing those babies come home, those children come home, seeing them wrapped in the loving arms of family members, not even necessarily their parents, some

of their parents have been killed, these hamas terrorists, they're brutal savagery must be stopped. we must get american hostages home. i want to see some strength from the white house. i want to see him demand americans come home. larry: yeah, that's night to your point, we have eight, nine, 10, we don't know. we know where they need to be. that is on american soil. larry: he is not even talking about it. that's my beef, you know? because he has got to put the fear of god into these people. he has got to do that. that is the only language they understand. he has to take an action. trump took an action. reagan took an action many, many years ago. that the is only language think understand. they have to be hurt in order to respond. senator katie britt, thank you for coming back on the show. folks, please go out to buy her book. one click, amazon, whatever your favorite click is. anyway, here on "kudlow," coming up, whoa, how about this, 50 days from the iowa state

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and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-763-2763. that's 1-800-763-2763. ♪. larry: all right, folks, 50 days from the iowa caucuses. governor ron desantis seems to be throwing a hail mary. i love hail mary but i don't think this one will work. we'll ask charlie hurt, "washington times" opinion editor, fox news contributor and rich lowery, editor-in-chief of "the national review." gentlemen, before we get out our, before we get out our

beads, if you will, our hail mary beads, i want to play robert, whatever his name is, van der plas, here is what he said in his endorsement of governor desantis. take a listen, please. >> >> i'm thrilled to throw my personal endorsement and support behind governor ron desantis of florida. we need to find somebody who can win in 2024 and what we saw in 2022 -- larry: all right. somebody who can win in 2024. the polls have kind of overtaken that assertion but we'll talk about it. let's see, before we do the "real clear politics," rich lowery, how about your worry beads? what beads will work for ron desantis? he is throwing everything he can into this. his whole staff what little money he has got left but his foe is trump, i don't know who he is running against. is he running against trump? is he running are against nikki

haley? who is he running against? >> yeah, so larry, every public indicator we're aware of says this is not a competitive race, right? donald trump is completely dominant in the national polls. he is dominant in the head-to-heads against desantis and haley and he is in a strong position in iowa and new hampshire. not as strong nationally but still strong. the one caveat you put on that is iowa and new hampshire can break late. desantis i think is doing the right thing. if trump is not stopped in iowa, i don't think he will be stopped anywhere. the horse will be out of the barn. desantis is still stronger in iowa than other states. he has done everything right on the ground. visited 99 counties, endorsement of the governor, endorsement of social conservative leaders we heard him there, but can his number budge? he is stuck in the high teens, tied now with nikki haley. again it can break late, but the breaking has got to start, larry, five or six weeks left.

he has to start moving if the movement is going to happen. larry: let's see, "realclearpolitics" in iowa, trump, 47, desantis, 17, haley 14. i don't know if we have vivek ramaswamy is in that one but, charlie, that's a tough hurdle and i think rich has put it right. if he doesn't, if desantis doesn't win in iowa, he is finished but i'm still trying to figure out what a win is. in other words, is detan necessary in iowa running against trump or running against haley or maybe he is running against vivek or maybe he is running against worry beads. i don't understand who he is running against, you have to help me out, charlie hurt? >> i think that is kind of the whole problem here is, that when, the whole purpose of ron desantis's campaign was to be an alternative to trump and he has failed at that. if you go back to the moment he

announced, ron desantis's numbers were never higher than before he announced. once he announced they have been sort of tumbling down ever since and people aren't buying whatever it is that he is selling and because he has done such a poor job of being that alternative to trump he opened up all the doorways for all the other people whether it is vivek ramaswamy or nikki haley to swoop in and pick up and splinter a lot of that, that alternative to trump vote. it is not working and you know, obviously these hail mary passes, these sort of going all-in on a state, you know, there are very few examples you can point to where this has worked. the only one i can think of in modern times was john mccain in 2008 putting it all in on new hampshire but john mccain is a very different -- he is an old political hand. he had a real, genuine support in at least in the media, maybe

not so much outside of the media. you know, but he was a smart tactician, and i don't see any evidence of that out of ron desantis. larry: well, rich lowery, i will come back to that, i don't mean to be redundant but look, there are options here, none of them are palatable for desantis. desantis looses to trump, that is no fun. what if desantis loses to haley that is no fun either. if haley, suppose haley gets 18 and desantis gets 16 or 17 and then trump gets all the rest? trump has a 30 point lead in iowa. i mean that will wreck desantis -- seems to me anything that happens short of actually beating trump and desantis is gone, he is gone. tell me if i'm wrong, rich? you're the political guy. >> he has to, i don't think you're wrong. he needs to win iowa or very,

very strong second in iowa. but i think he really has to win it but just to stick with the subject of football, larry for a second, talking about hail mary passes did you seed video of trump at the clemson-south carol lyne game last weekend. politicians are not greeted kindly by sports fans and football fans. he is out on the field and treated like a conquering hero. sec, pro-trump conference this goes to how he is political and cultural phenomenon. larry: yeah. >> so it doesn't matter, we can all say desantis should have done this differently or that differently how do you beat with that? how will nikki haley compete with that? that is what they are up against. it will take a hail mary pass and minor miracle in iowa. larry: i thought you were going to use a church analogy. >> i'm looking at foot ball larry, you're hole ier than us.

larry: a bill buckley catholic church. >> what is more than a hail mary? i don't know what more than ha a hail mary is. you have run out of all the options and tried a hail mary and god doesn't smile on you at that moment in time. larry: hail mary, you got it right, charlie that is the top of the line. i don't want to bring in religion but gee whiz, hail mary is top of the line. i want to ask, a debate is coming up on the sean hannity show, newsom versus desantis. i hope millions and millions and millions of people watch sean. kind of like and also-rans group. then again i was thinking, talking to my pal steve moore on the phone over the weekend, what if, what if desantis clobbers gavin newsom in this sean hannity debate? what if he clobbers him? could desantis redeem himself?

after all everyone is leaving california. they're all moving to texas and florida because of taxes and illegal immigration and crime and all the rest of it. so you know, seeing, we have this church theme, what if desantis seeks salvation in the debate with newsome? >> i like that. i like that. how amazing is, that gavin newsom is not even running yet ron desantis is the one that can benefit the most out of a debate with a guy who supposedly not even running? that is how bad after situation ron desantis is in right now. i think it is kind of interesting that you know this does not necessarily benefit gavin newsom. gavin newsom has to run his campaign with all of the democrat super delegates and all the bigwigs and fat cats who sit in you know back, smoke-filled back rooms in order to assure that any hope of him winding up being the nominee which i don't

rule that out at this point. every time you look at joe biden you think, oh, my gosh, how will he last another month? but it is kind of interesting where we are. larry: look, maybe desantis can find somebody he can beat in a debate. i'm not sure i don't know how that will play out at all. >> nice. larry: charlie hurt, "washington times," rich louerry "national review." >> larry, football, x and os, x and os, that's what we're thinking. larry: this third string giants quarterback went to don boss co, catholic school someplace in northern new jersey. coming up here on "kudlow," biden's turkey was very expensive but biden recession will be even worse. art laffer, still ahead on "kudlow." remember you can catch "kudlow" monday through friday 4:00 p.m. every day right here on fox business. and if you can't, you can text your favorite nine-year-old and she bill teach you how to dvr

show. or you can catch our replay at 7:00. i don't know, there is lot of stuff in the teleprompter. i'm ad-libbing like crazy. you can get us at 4:00, you can get us at 7:00. you can dvr, you can hail mary, you can do anything you want. art laffer is coming up next on "kudlow" after advil. feeling better? on top of the worlddddd!!! before advil. advil targets pain at the source of inflammation. when pain comes for you, come back fast with advil liqui-gels. tin is in our home, our office, our cars, and even our phones. eloro resources game changing discovery at the world class silver-tin property could be one of the largest operations in the world.

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♪. larry: all right, so joe biden's turkey was very expensive this year but a biden recession next year could be even more costly. joining us, art laffer, former reagan economist, presidential medal of freedom recipient, author of, "taxes have consequences". joe biden couldn't let this rest. here is joe biden today, several days after turkey day, here he is, take a listen. president biden: you know from turkey to air travel, to tank of gas, costs went down, people making a lot of money that doesn't matter a whole lot because the costs are small compared to relatively high incomes. as share of thanksgiving dinner was fourth cheapest on record, i want you all to know that. larry: art, my response to that is gobble, gobble. first of all the turkey meal is up 41%, 41% compared to 2020,

all right? ham up 97. pie shells up 45. turkeys themselves are up 41. potatoes up 40. i know you're not going to eat any potatoes, neither am i. >> [laughter] larry: how dumb can he be? those are the numbers. that comes from the american farm bureau for heavens sakes, arthur? >> yeah. how can he pick turkeys and ham as his examples too, which begs the analogy as to what, how much more expensive is he than he was in 2020 or -- it is just amazing. larry: yeah. >> i don't understand it. the economy is not doing well, prices are very high and he is not doing well, larry. you know in your last segment you talked about trump versus the republican primary candidates but you know trump is a phenomenon that i have not seen since reagan in 1984. it is just amazing. when he was down on the football stadium there, all of them

cheering and welcoming him, it is a phenomenon that i haven't seen. i don't know how anyone stands up to a battle against donald trump in elections and especially given the facts of what is happening with biden and the economy and inflation and prices. it is just, it should be a 70-30 election for trump. larry: yeah, well, okay. art, i want to ask you something else. >> it may not be that high. larry: i understand but it should be. >> yes. larry: you always talk about the wholesale price index, the producer price index as an important indicator. it leads the consumer price index. here is what i want you to comment on, please. the ppi is falling like a stone. >> yes. larry: falling like a stone. inside of that oil prices, despite the war in the middle east and despite production cuts from opec, oil and energy falling like a stone. and the index of leading indicators are falling like a stone, 19 straight months. art, i have a minute left. is this deflation?

is this recession coming? >> it is a recession, larry. it is a slowdown in the world economy. it is happening everywhere in the world. china, all these countries are all slowing down. that is the reason you're seeing oil, that is the reason you're seeing leading indicators that way. the u.s. will be with him, probably not as bad as the rest of the world but frankly it is a problem. we're fall into much more slow growth period than we have been n those prices will be coming down for at least quite sometime. we're into the over inflation but we'll be coming down with a slowdown in the economy clearly. larry: you can see in the open market commodity prices, those indexes are starting to roll over again. >> way down. larry: i'm just saying as you just said, inflation is not over yet. the level of prices are still high. that may not be the case next year. we may see a recession bringing down all prices. that is a possibility. li >> oh yeah, that is very true. gold price rising

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