think people were victims. i think they bought into something that he was selling. it was snake oil, and he made a lot of money on it. but, obviously, the lesson is you have to be more circumspect. and i will tell you, never trust a person -- this is two things i've learned. never trust anyone who says they're the next warren buffett or they're doing things because of altruism. the other thing the, media fawning over these guy i rues that come out of nowhere, all the hype, be careful. because someone's putting money behind that, and they want a return on investment. i don't know what that is? your money -- you know what that is? your money. liz claman tax you new the last hour of trading. liz e les yeah, that is so true. you know who i have standing by here? your two buddies, joe lavorgna and kenny polcari -- [laughter] charles: again! liz: they're so good at gauging the markets. we have a huge hour ahead with a lineup of bests to give you extremely important insight on,

quite frankly, the biggest stories occurring right now. number one, the rally, well, it's still up. for a second it was losing steam, but the bulls and bears have been in this pitched battle all day long. much of the action driven by four, and this is key, four voting members of the federal reserve who were out and about speaking on various top thetics all day today, but the markets initially seized on two of them. right now the dow jones industrials is up 95 points, but at the open you can see, the far left side of the intraday picture here, the dow dropped. not by much, but at 10:37 a.m. eastern time, you see that sharp spike p. it was the same if you look at the s&p and the nasdaq intraday. the reversal sent stocks into the green. the s&p at one point climbed as much as a 7 points. we are up 2 right now -- 17 points. but as we look at the nasdaq, same thing, there's that same price action pattern here, the s&p up 2, or but the nasdaq is up 15, high of the session for the nasdaq was 62 right around

10:37. that's' precisely when fed governor christopher waller thrilled the bulls when he hinted after 11 interest rate hikes the fed could cut rates relatively soon. listen to how he put it. >> there's certainly good economic arguments from any kind of -- that would tell you if we see this inflation continuing for several more months, i don't know how long that might be, 3 months, 4 months, 5 months, that we feel confident that inflation is down on and on its way, you could then start lowering the policy rate just because inflation's lower. liz: oh, yeah, investors liked that. coming up, former st. louis fed president and rate hawk james bullard has a warning about the dangers of prematurely taking the sid corps -- scissors to interest rates. let me get to number two, retail bulls decked out in apparel they scooped up on cyber monday. take act a look at olln, the

discretionary bull etf is up 1.5%. and what do we see here? we do have the buy now, pay later site affirm up another 11%. look at the 2-day here. record-breaking sales have affirm popping for the second straight day. and as you see this, well, 10.9% gape, that brings the 2-day jump in the stock to 25%. retail guru and former gap, ann taylor and j.crew ceo mickey drexler opens the shopping bag post-cyber monday to talk about why investors need to dig deep to find the real success stories and which spocks -- stocks control that success story. and number three, an excruciatingly worrisome development out of the middle east. three of the baby hostages yet to be leased have been passed off to a splinter terror group in gaza is, and no sign yet of american hostages either. gop presidential candidate chris christie joins us live on what

must be done starting now to end the hostage crisis as talks are swirling about a possible second extension of the gaza ceasefire if. all right. back on wall street, the bulls are decidedly in control of oil and bitcoin. take a look at crude oil, up 2% ahead of thursday's opec meeting, and bitcoin holding above $38,000. we're at $38,144. as a federal judge blocked binance founder and ceo from leaving the country after the crypto exchange founder and uae resident pled guilty to violating anti-money laundering laws. with so much to cover, let's get right to the floor show and the aforementioned traders ken nebraska poll carry and america's chief economist, joe lavorgna. joe, okay, it's cheer now because the bulls are back in control, the dow's up 997, s&p and nasdaq in the green -- 97 -- that it's what waller said. he is a voting member, and he

started to hint as at a rate cut. >> and he's a hawk, and the market has moved up its timing. the market thinks the fed will cut now in may. history actually suggests it could be as soon as march. kenny tried to totally slay me on the bulls, and i was almost going to call my broker and buy as many s&p 500s as i could -- [laughter] -- s&p z. but the last five cycle, the average time from the last hike to first cut has been eight months. if july was the last hike, it actually brings us to march, so a march cut is possible. it is possible -- liz: kenny's going to go off here. >> listen, it is possible. i think it is absolutely possible, but i don't want see any reason. the economy's strong. we're spending money like there's no tomorrow. look what happened over the weekend and cyber monday. we broke records, right? it's difficult for me to say the economy's in such a place that it needs stimulus. which is exactly what a rate cut would do. and, by the way, 5% or 5.25%

rates are very normal historically for the markets -- liz: us old people. >> for us, right? but when you think about it, the markets function fine with a 5% rate. the problem is there's this whole generation of investors behind us that think zero is normal -- liz: okay, joe, funking fine -- >> yes. liz: we have the nasdaq up 28 year the date, the s&p up 14% -- i'm sorry, year-over-year. and the dow's up 4% year e over year. sorry, i don't mean to pile it on you -- [laughter] >> now i know why you wanted me on. no, just kidding. [laughter] the equity risk premium is negative. >> okay. liz: okay. >> so what does that tell you about risk return for stocks? and the like he hood -- hold on -- this is a new bull market? there are three important factors behind bull markets. one is equity risk premium is high and positive, number one. number two, unemployment is high. the other thing that's very important, households' exposure to equities is low. all three of those factors all

work against a secular sustained bull market in stocks. so, yes -- liz: [inaudible] >> no. unemployment, you buy equities when unemployment's high -- liz: i see. >> for secular bull market, the market's up this year, and a lot has to do with liquidity and the fed eadsing. one last point -- easing. soft landings and recessions always look the same until they don't. >> okay. but here's the deal, no one says necessarily that it's going to be the another bull market. i'm arguing that i don't think the fed, there's signs yet that the fed needs to cut. liz: okay. >> that the market can churn right here for a while. liz: what about the 7-year bond auction today? folks, if you look at the intradays of the yields for whether it's the 7-year, the 01-year, the 2-year, they started to fall. i'm not surprised that -- >> i guess it was strong. liz: not so much. >> so it opportunity -- because yesterday the 5-year had strong demand, right? but the 2-year was weak and now the 7-year is weak, is what you're saying. liz: the 7-year yield is down

6.6 basis points. >> what's driving yields lower isn't the fed, it's break even inflation is has come down. if inflation continues to father, as i believe it will, then rates are coming down. thing equity market likes the fact that rates are coming down. if there's a recession, and i believe there will be, equities will correct significantly. >> well, they're going to have to because we've got 11, almost 12% earnings growth priced into next year, s&p 245, which i think is very rich. liz e les we need to talk about stocks and where, depending on your outlook, where you see the best, juiciest opportunity, kenny. >> listen, again, it depends on where you are in the life cycle. for me, i tend to be on the conservative side, just kind of right of center. so i'm continuing to look at energy. i looked a financials and certainly technology. but when you think about technology, not amazon, google and apple, but stuff where you're going to get more direct exposure to artificial intelligence. liz: such as?

>> nvidia, i still think there's big opportunity. c3.ai is where i think there's opportunity. >> if the fed cuts, housing shuled recover. this has been in deep recession. or mortgage applications, the lowest in 30 years. home builder sentiment is close to an all a-time record low. the housing market hasn't moved at a at all. that's why the 5% rates, they may seem normal but not for housing. mortgage rates way over 7%, that sector's ground to a halt. >> right. but housing prices have not really come down. they have to, i agree with you. >> but here's the thing i think people are missing, kenney, they might not come down because nothing trades the. but 4s about 8800,000 too many conduction -- 800,000 too many construction workers that are employed in residential construction that aren't going to have jobs if activity doesn't rebound, and activity is not rebounding with mortgage rates above 7. >> well, i guess we're going to see about that. liz: i've never seen a pause that kenny polcari can't fill.

[laughter] gentlemen, or thank you so much. great to see you. >> have us back. >> la lavorgna, polcari, it's the team. great to see you. >> the numbers are in, cyber monday unleashed a history of making click frenzy. the former ceo of j.crew and gap, the man who created old navy and madewell out of thin air joins us next to tell us what the record day and huge shopping weekend says about the american consumer. the strength of the economy and which names are really going to succeed. oh, yeah, and shein it may launch an ipo. amazon up 74% year to date. "the claman countdown" is coming right back with the retail king, mickey directs canler. ♪ -- mickey drexler. ♪ ♪ ♪

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liz: fox business alert, it is the top of the global retail sector. one of the biggest names in the entire world for fast fashion could soon make its public debut. multiple reports swirling at this hour that singapore-based shein has confidentially filed for an ipo here in the u.s. which would be one of, if not the most valuable china-founded companies to ever list in new york. goldman sachs, jp if morgan chase and morgan stanley apparently, according to these report, have been hired as lead underwriters. bloomberg reports shein is targeting up to a $90 billion valuation. fast fashion rapidly changing the retail landscape. what could this monster everything po, if it comes to pass, mean for the future of how retailers operate and how the stocks will battle it out for investors' money? if i want to bring in retail

legend mickey breaksler r founder of old navy and madewell and the former ceo of gap and j.crew and ann taylor and now the chairman at alex mill. okay, first thought about the shein potential ipo. >> i know nothing of them. shein, other than it's extraordinary. i always wondered how they sell the goods at those prices. and i'm, i don't know anything about their sourcing, but there would be a question about that x. there have been. but the world is, you know, i always say it's going to the bottom, and that's what it is. it's, you know -- and, you know, look, i wish -- [laughter] we would have that kind of valuation in my next life -- liz: but you would want quality, right? if. >> oh -- liz: and i'm not saying shein isn't, because i've never bought from them -- >> by the way, you could speculate that it isn't, and

you'd win the bet, okay in. [laughter] liz: okay. >> i've never been in a store -- i like quality. you know, i like things that are well made and respectful. and and, you know, the world is probably a little contradictly about, you know, good sourcing, sustainability. and clearly, this is probably one of the more, most successful i e pos, i don't know -- liz: could very well be. >> incredible. liz: and then you look at, for example, a pin duo due bow and temu, its farm there. also a huge operator in the space, and you pair it with the names out there that are in fast fashion, the h&ms, i find that every time i buy something from one of those places, it falls apart, and then i hate it after two wears. >> well, you know, quality -- and, or again, this is purely personal, i think a lot of it's

a lost art. brands get hot, things get hot, and i'm always amazed by the lack of quality in certain things. but, you know, to each his own. liz: is it fair to say though that the chinese retailers of the world and the singapore -- obviously, shein's sing boar- singapore-based, really have changed the global landscape of fast fashion? >> well, you know, i'm not a fast fashion person and it's above my pay grade, but h&m and, and zarah, in my opinion, i remember when h&m opened, there were lines around the block. i don't know what their prices are, but i'm saying -- assuming at least triple shein's price -- liz: oh, easily. cyber monday, record-breaking numbers here. pretty stunning. what duds that say to you about the american consumer? >> well, it says a few things to me. we don't go on sale during black

friday, but we're like that. i think it's a race to the bottom. sale wise. you know, people want value, and, you know, i think cyber monday and black friday are great tips to the consumer not to buy anything -- liz: well, but discounts peaked at about a record 31% off listed prices. so the consumer holds the key, or the wallet, so to speak. they won't buy until they see a quality discount. >> yeah, 100%. and there's a lot of great shoppers out there who save their money or the time to then get the bargains. liz: you know, the internet and tiktok, the influencers have created such ap influential market out there. so many brands flood social immediate that -- media that it's almost as if nobody would have known about some of them. quince, you have $50 cashmere

sweaters toward actually really -- that are actually darn decent quality -- >> have you worn one? liz: some of my team have. they wash them in the washing machine, they don't shrink, they're good quality. so with decent quality, fair price point, they seem to be emerging. >> well, i'm a little skeptical. i'm going to get a quince sweater to see it. liz: okay. >> because, i mean, i don't know where they're making these sweaters. but people, frankly, don't seem to care in most cases about things that people talk a lot about. liz: well, people, you know, they're on limited budgets perhaps now -- >> yeah, 100%. liz: let us know what you think of the quips sweater when you buy it, i'm serious. >> i will. i saw the ad on it, i guess sunday -- liz: see? >> but i was stunned at the price. and then, you know, it's all above my pay grade in terms of how they do this. but i also am curious about the

values of where we are on whatever, recycling sustainability. it's a big contradiction in this world, in my opinion. again, not an expert. liz: well, the fashion world is the biggest contributor to trash in this world, and it is a big problem. >> well, you know, i always say it's easy to go after the fashion world. and i think they're right. what about the car industry? it dwarfs the fashion world. so many other industries. but people drive cars, who knows where they're made and how they're made, but fashion is an easy thing to latch on to because it's fashion. liz: well, you're fashionable, my friend, thank you very much. you've got the jeans, the chic scarf and -- is that a cashmere blazer? >> yeah. liz: it lacks good. >> well, you know, these are all like vintage. liz: your pay grade ain't that low. don't sell yourself short,

mickey, thank you very much. mickey drexler. this thursday tesla finally -- officially enters the electric pickup truck market. where the big event is next. and later in the show, chris christie was the first gop presidential candidate to visit israel post-october 7th. he will join us on what he saw that has him convinced there's a better way to take on the hamas terrorists who are now handing off infant and toddler hostages like footballs to other terror groups. and we have former st. louis fed boss james bullard. the noted hawk gives his 2024 interest rate prediction. get ready for a shocker. we are coming right back.. we are coming right back.. ♪sati ♪ but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. t. rowe price, invest with confidence.

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liz: fox business alert, what did i tell you? the tug-of-war continues. now we've got the s&p and the nasdaq, nasdaq's flat but slightly negative. sort of at -- well, down 16 cents. but we've got the s&p down 2, the dow jones industrials holding on to gains of about 69. but it's been like this multiple times throughout the day. green, red, green, red. let's get to some individual stock stories. the carlyle group up after s&p, dow jones indices announced the private equity firm gets to join the s&p mid cap 400. that's good enough for a 5% pop in the stock. the move will be affected before trading opens on thursday. that stock is up about 10% year

to date. carlyle will replace icu medical. micron technology trading lower each after boosting revenue guidance for the fiscal first quarter to $4.7 billion versus the priest guidance of 4.4 billion, but moth, here's the problem, also -- microsoft also predicted an adjusted loss of a dollar or a share. the memory chip maker expects higher adjusted operating expenses and, hence, the stock is getting hurt, down about 2.7%. tesla's stock already looking at year to date gains of 91%, although that's way down from where we were just a month or two ago, but it is popping 4% on news that it's about to hand over, finally, its first cyber orer truck to customers on thursday -- cyber truck during a launch event at tesla's austin headquarters. web bush's dan ives wrote an anticipatory note about the futuristic-looking all stain lease steel-skipped pickup saying he expects tesla to churn out 2,000-3,000 units this

quarter and also predicts tesla will produce as many as 250,000 cyber trucks by full year 2025. now, i know you're all thinking, how much, liz? what's the price tag? well, tesla has not released an official price tag, but dan ives preponderates a range of between $50,000 for the low-end model to $80,000 for the high-end model. well, that's a head-turner no matter what. elon musk's other company, x, of course, formerly known as twitter, may be seeing a reverse isal of the earlier exodus of advertisers. apple, ebm and disney had pulled ads following a report from media matters that said the platform had run ads from those companies next to nazi content. charlie gasparino has some inside scoop on perhaps this reversal, charlie? >> yeah. let's just unpack this a little bit and recall x has sued media matters for defamation. a whole ball of wax, saying that it's essentially concocted the

scandal, that, you know, by manipulating etc. algorithms, you can create the nazi content, the bad content next to the ads of those major advertise ors. be that as it may, we finish sources have told the fox business network that x has been out there trying to woo back all those advertisers that bolted, that paused their advertisements. and it's a lot of them. "the new york times" ran a story that said it was something like $75 million hit initially. here's what x is now on the record, a spokesman for x on the record telling fox business now that they have convinced three, they would say major advertisers, their words, to unpause their adsen on the social media platform. the three they cited to me was exxonmobil, state farm and jack in the box. they claim all three have paused. now they're back on the platform. we should point out that i put calls in to each one of them to confirm it, they have not gotten back to me.

if they say something different, we'll put it on twitter -- x, i'm sorry -- [laughter] and possibly come back on the air on your show. we should point out a couple other things. cnn had previously reported that state farm did not pause, okay? x says it did, and it got them back. so just keep that in mind as a i report this out. again, none of the three have returned our phone calls. i've been spending a lot of time with x people over the last couple of days about the advertising, what they're trying to do. they think they have some softening of the opposition following their suit getting their side of the story out. again, they claim it was concocted that, you know, media a matters jumped through a lot of hoops to create the outcome that they said, media matters has said it stands by its reporting and that, media matters also said be that as it may, the stuff that they found was real. so just keep that in mind as well. but again, what x is saying, it is now finding some softening among those that have paused or boycotted their ads on the platform.

also interesting to note, and i don't quite understand this, x is saying that even those companies that did sort of boycott or pause, they still advertise on their own pages. like, apparently, they have their own accounts on twitter or x, and, for example, i think amazon was one of the ones they mentioned, and they put their own ads op their own page. so it's not like they're -- you can't find them on twitter. they're out there. they're on twitter advertising. but advertising in a different way. remember, what we're talking here is the sort of algorithmic-generated ads that come next to content that everybody wants because that kind of applies to your personses -- preferences, and it's a much more actionable ad. liz: right. >> so that's where we are right now. again, any of these companies call back and dispute any of this, i will be on the air are but -- with you. but according to x, they got throe of them back with. liz: okay.

charlie, thank you very much. all right, we are hearing new that more hostages have been released by hamas and are right now heading to israeli territory as negotiators work to extend the ceasefire. we have breaking details and latest developments straight ahead. 2024 presidential candidate chris christie joins us live here on set next to give us his solution to earn the release of the first american hostages. as of yet, we've seen no americans released. and at just 11 years old, this california native started her business e and career life with a paper route delivering newspapers over her small los angeles town with a smile so sparkly, it lit up modeling agencies, and she began her modeling career at just 17 years old. oh, did she begin and grace the "sports illustrated" swim suit coffers. she was featured more often than just about any other supermodel, but kathy ireland knew in her heart that the professional

shelf life of a supermodel can be very short. he was determined to take her career from bikinis to boardrooms. she spun her modeling fame into one of the most successful business empires in 1993, and to this day, kathy ireland worldwide still succeeding with the same grit and resill yens that she learned from her paper route. kathy ireland is my guest on how she did it, my brand new everyone talks to liz podcast episode just dropped a few hours ago. get it on apple, google, spotify, iheart radio. i mean, who among us didn't look at kathy ireland? so incredible but so smart. worth more than half a billion dollars today. find out how she did it. chris christie next. ♪ ♪

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liz: all right, welcome back. we are still looking at a gain of 60 points for the dow. breaking news at this hour, the israeli defense forces say another 12 hostages, some of them on your screen, have made it safely from gaza into the care of the red cross and are enroute towards israeli territory. the hostages taken captive october 7th by hamas terrorists who murdered 1200 civilians including 0 ises israelis and -- 10 israelis and 2 foreign nationals, this release as part of the temporary ceasefire extended by 48 hours yesterday. this as new reports say qatar, egypt and the u.s. and and israel are continuing talks right now to extend the truce for an additional three days if hamas releases 10 hostages per day. also as part of the discussion is a potential new deal to release men and idf soldiers who are being held hostage in gaza. meanwhile, in just a horrifying

development, the idf announced that hamas has transferred two baby hostages and their parents to a different terror cell in southern gaza. this apparently happened last night. the two children, known as the reds for their red hair, are 4-year-old ariel and 10-month-old kafir and their parents with them at least, at least. and there is some hope, so far hamas has traded 82 civilian hostages in exchange for 150 palestinian prisoners. but the nightmare is still very real for, as we said, the estimated a 154 israelis and 9 americans stilling with held somewhere in the tums by the terrorists. former new jersey governor and 2024 gop presidential candidate. chris:ty joins me now. let me bring it stateside here. are we ever going to see the american hostages come out? >> i think we will but, look, you know that american hostages are the most prized hostages in the world.

and so they're going to save those, keep those americans, i think unfortunately, unless president biden insists that there'll be no more release of hostages until we get some americans out. now, look, it's a hard spot because i went to israel, as you know. i met with the families of some of the hostages -- liz: two weeks ago. >> two weeks ago. and i have this dog tag that they gave me from one of the families that says bring them home now. bring them home now. so there's enormous pressure, rightfully, from those families to say our folks are innocent victims here, and we need to bring them home before they die, as you've seen on these reports. many of them are in their 70s and 80s. these folks who can't survive without certain medicine ask and being in these tunnels, liz. look, when i went there, i'll tell you exactly what i saw, the extraordinary inhumanity, and i went to the same kibbutz that elon musk was at yesterday.

i went to the home of a 24-year-old couple. she was reading a book on her couch, he was murdered. the blood is still stain thing the couch of her blood. her husband was in the doorway of their bedroom, he was gunned down there. the floor is covered with dried blood from him. and i counted, there were 140 bullet holes in the walls to kill 2 people. this shows people who are joyful in their inhumanity. liz: so how do you deal with them? if you were president right now, what is the administration doing right, what are they doing wrong, and is there something we need to just cut to the chase to and get tougher? except that you see the hostages being released, and that's a good thing. so it's very difficult. >> it is. because hamas place on the fact that the united states and israel treasure human life. and hamas has no regard for human life. and they play that with us. and so we see these hostages being released, we see the joyful reunions with their families, and we understand

that. and in you are hearts and in our minds, we relate to that. looking i think we have to make very clear this is not a permanent ceasefire, that we stand by israel continuing the war against hamas and to eliminate this -- look, the kibbutz that i went to was 600 yards from the gaza border. that's home to many people who evacuated there now because of the danger. how do we say to those people you can go back to your homes and are rebuild until that hamas threat is eliminated. and i think if you're the prime minister of israel, you can't do that unless you stand up and say we're folk to continue this -- we're going to continue this. so this is fine as a pause for the humanitarian causes we're talking about, but this cannot be a permanent cease fever until the israeli defense forces are convinced hamas if doesn't represent a threat. liz: ukraine is still happening, and now the finnish border, finland and russia, the finns are shutting it down.

they're brand new nato members, and they are closing every border crossing. it's not getting a lot of attention, but it should because people are reading about it, and this is extraordinarily important because the russians are doing what's called hybrid warfare. they're shoving asylum seekers across the border to try and weaken fenland. finland. where do you stand on what's going on with russia and all of the nefarious activities that they're pulling off? >> this is why ukraine's so important, because russia is testing us. as is china, who is funding this war for russia by being russian oil at huge prices and allowing them to buy more weapons and helping to supply them with more weapons along with north korea and iran. look, what we need to do here is stand up for ukraine and stand against the russian army. vladimir putin is an authoritarian, kgb thug. and this is why folks like donald trump who call him brilliant and a great leader are just dead wrong. vivek ramaswamy who said in his

campaign saying that he could make a deal with putin. you can't make a deal with people like this. you have to e hoe them our strength the. and that's what we need to do in russia because, believe me, china's watching, and they're look at taiwan in the same way way. iran is watching in terms of what else they might want to play in israel, and north korea's watching as well. liz: governor, you were the first gop candidate to go to israel and look at a what happened post-october 7th. you were very well a ware of the global issues. when you go to the iowa caucus, which is in 49 days, and then just a few days after that new hampshire. do they focus that much on it, or are they all about inflation even though inflation's coming down? tell me what you're hearing from americans. do they focus on that, or do you have to pivot and go back to your record as a new jersey golf where you balance the budget -- governor where you balanced the budget and you cut taxes? >> look, i think since israel happened i've seen a huge increase in voters' interest in

foreign policy. ukraine, not as much. but with israel, they're very focused on it. and i it's because they understand -- i think it's because they understand that the united states is indies pence bl to israel and vice versa. they're supportive of israel, they want our government to be supporting israel. so i've seen a big uptick, liz, unfortunately in the last 60 days in people's interest since the october 7th, you know, terrorist attack occurred. liz: yeah. >> they still care about inflation, they still care very much about our border, our educational system, but there's been a big increase in that. and i think it's great that our politicians see that the american people, the real folks who pay the bills, they care about making sure that israel's protected. liz: it's great to have you. >> great to be back. liz: you have to come back before iowa -- >> we will. liz: that's what we want to get to next, iowa, new hampshire and what happens there and what your plans are. >> will definitely be back. thank you, liz. will husband les you got it. the housing market freezing

over, the cost of financing cars doubling. americans still slapping down their credit cards at a record pace. this as jerome powell's federal reserve keeps rates higher for longer but doesn't raise 'em. the former st. louis fed president james bullard is here next on what he says for the -- sees for the federal reserve and what he thinks they must do when it comes to interest rates. with the dow jones industrial gaining about 86 points, boeing, minnesota mining and manufacturing, dow chemical and american express and walmart as our dow leaders. stay tuned, we are coming right stay tuned, we are coming right back with james bullard. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia.

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♪. >> overall we have made progress on inflation outside of the food sector. it's been coming down. it's not yet down to target but 2023 we're on path to set the highest drop in the inflation rate in 71 years. liz: that is chicago federal reserve president austan goolsbee saying he sees progress on inflation. it is interesting, my mother gets mad when we call it core inflation because everybody eats an everybody needs gasoline. those are volatile.

regardless you have seen inflation come down in key areas. he is a voting member at the next federal reserve meeting in december. federal reserve governor michelle bowman, on the other hand, she is also a voter this year and in 2024. today she took a contrarian view to goolsbee saying quote, quite possible the fed policy rate will need to be at a higher level than before the pandemic to foster low, stable inflation. this should be an interesting meeting in december. let's see what the man who can actually speak freely now because while he used too be in the room where it happened he is now outside and ready to talk to us in a fox business exclusive. former federal reserve bank of st. louis and current dean of mitchell school of business at purdue, james bullard. great to see you. dean, congratulations on the position. i know you have been there for a while we haven't had a chance to talk. whose side are you on here?

michelle bowman gave the sense we need to remain vigilant and whereas austan goolsbee, chris waller, fed governor and voting member said he could see cuts soon? >> yeah. i would interpret them all saying similar things. it is certainly true that inflation has come town some. i would say on a core basis, 12-month core basis halfway back to target. we still have the other half to go. we're not done yet but it is going in the right direction. maybe we'll get back to 2% in 2024. i would interpret mickey bowman saying we have to be careful. one of the things, i don't want to put words in her mouth, one of the things that hammed in 1970 inflation turned around right when the committee thought they had inflation under control.

it went higher. they want to guard against that, and have insurance against that. on the other hand trend is looking good. keep our fingers crossed for a soft landing in 2024. liz: you've been hawkish, more recently, when you were at the st. louis fed by the end. you stood century. we've got to be really careful we don't maybe the mistake of cutting rates too soon. are we still in that red zone? >> yeah, i mean there is still a lot of risk out there. obviously you've got a lot of global risk with two wars going on as your previous guest was talking about. i think that could, that you know, could move in unpredictable ways that it would affect the economy in the months ahead. so you have to be aware of those kinds of issues but, i do, i would say overall, i was very hawkish in 2022. i thought we should move very, very quickly to a much higher level of the policy rate.

we did move all the way up above 5%. liz: right. >> i thought that was the right move. move early, move fast and we did that. and we're seeing the fruits of that policy as inflation is coming down and so far the economy has held up pretty well. it has been pretty resilient. so i think we're in good shape for a soft landing. liz: okay. soft landing, that is what chris waller said. i do want to ask you bip nation. the pce, so here's inflation over the last two years, and that includes the last, what, 20 months of rate hikes, two pauses within there. the fed's favorite inflation gauge, pce, core, we're getting on thursday, latest read for october. september came in actually cooler than expected. here is what we're expecting for october, to come in .1 of a percent month over month, i believe down 3% year-over-year. what do you expect? how is this number?

does it still hold the heft all of us should be watching because it could be affecting the stock market? >> well this is an important number because a favorite of the open market committee said they like to look at this particular measure of inflation. it's not exactly what people experience as president goolsbee was saying. you mow you do have energy, bills, we have to pay. so we're all very sensitive to that but, it gives you sort of a better measure on a day-to-day basis of underlying inflation, so where is the trend is in inflation? it has been coming down f we get to 3 1/2% or lower, that would be good news on that metric. i think what you would really like to see in the months ahead is that number dropping below 3%, even down to two 1/2%. so we'll see if we get that in the next six months or so. liz: what strikes fear in your

heart about the economy as you look down the road? is there anything that you worry about particularly of concern, whether that is something that you have referenced which is the geopolitical tensions that could do a short-term sort of jump scare, or is sitting else that could be a black swan? >> yeah. i don't, i think my biggest concern is that there is still some probability that inflation will turn around and go higher. the reason i'm concerned about that is that that's the scenario that wall street has not priced in and that's the scenario that none of us are ready for because it would put the fed back into the game of raising interest int again, that would be something that would be for people to adjust to. i don't want to get overconfident because we've seen

quite a few months in a row of declining inflation. doesn't mean the game is over. you're sort of ahead at halftime. that is great. you have to play the second half here. that is my biggest fear we're putting so much weight on the idea that inflation, disinflation will continue, that we're neglecting the possibilities, not a high probability but some probability that inflation would turn around and go higher. then we would be back in the soup here. liz: not like we haven't seen that movie before. [closing bell rings] you have to be so careful and vigilant. mr. bullard, thank you so much. dean bullard of purdue. former st. louis fed president. tomorrow the ceo of zscaler, and greg lands man, the ohio congressman ♪ larry: welcome to kudlow, i'm larry kudlow. let's go to straight fox news white house correspondent peter doocy. we have an update on the hostages and fireworks on capitol hill between two sen