how many states send in the letter a? all right, brian, you guess i wrote them out 21 i'm confident. ooh impressive lauren i agree 21 well, if you wrote them out brian brenberg i'm going with 21. and the answer is 21. there you go. including minnesota. yes. thank you very much. you can see them all laid out on the map. now we're out of time. brian, thank you so much for being here for the hour. we are out of time, but it's coast to coast, which starts now. all right. thank you very much for that. we are seeing all the major market

averages as you've been reporting expertly, my friend, all moving up again a very tame inflation report on the retail side. but what really is interesting here is how the market adjusts to what the federal reserve will likely do next month. well, the betting is we'll see rates cut probably by about a quarter point. so the fed funds overnight bank lending rate, which as you kno, trades within about a 25 to 50 basis point range now at around four, five and a 4:45 point 5% come next month, it will likely be trading in a range of 5.0% to 5.25%. so not the half point cut that maybe some envision. and many tech traders would hope for. so that is something that i've noticed all morning. the markets have been trying to chew on and sort of get a handle on what we can expect. and of course, i believe and my buddy edward lawrence at the white house knows this far better than i do. you had jerome powell and some of his key buddies, in jackson hole, wyoming next week. maybe that

will telegraph his next move. but how do things look right now, edward? yeah, and we'll be there for that. neil. you know what? just what you said. this federal reserve chairman doesn't like to make big swings. so we're probably looking at a 25 basis point hike. this inflation report is exactly what the federal reserve wants to see. to make that first rate cut in september, the rate under 3% for the first time since march of 2021. now this inflation report also shows the economic pain that americans continue to endure from the month president biden and vice president harris came into office. overall, inflation is up 19.5%. rent is up in that time. more than 22%. auto insurance up the month. the administration started instituting policies about 55%. and this is what gets people the most food at the grocery store. that's up more than 21% from january of 2021. if a working class mom who works as a paralegal cannot buy a $2 bell pepper because it's now

five. imagine a mother living on food stamps. imagine a mother who's making minimum wage trying to feed children. they are killing us without killing us. you can hear the pain in her voice. the issue is the compounding nature of price increases. so yes, the rise in prices is down, but it's on top of the other increases. and that led to an inflection poin. under this administration, credit card debt has exploded hovering around the record of $1.14 trillion, the link went on that debt at 9.1%, highest rate since 2021. the president acknowledges prices are too high and blames companies. >> i don't think much of it, it is price gouging. inflation is coming down, prices are going up.

that's very hard to digest. >> reporter: this is the last inflation report before early voting starts in some areas. voters have to figure out which economy they want and where we go for the future. neil: thank you, edward lawrence. let's get the read on how markets are adjusting. the chief market strategist, chief market strategist. your take on how the markets, it's a psychological thing. on what happens next month, seems to be a fourth-quarter point, but others want something bigger but that doesn't seem to be in the cards. by and large, the markets seem okay with that. >> i think markets are getting a take away from the data we've seen recently. the fed is going to cut in

september and the language is more important. i'm looking forward to jackson hole. i am thinking of the path of rates, the fed will cut but how drastically will they cut and how quickly will they cut back to mutual? ashley: look at technology stocks. they are in a world of their own. that is a group of traders who would prefer bigger than smaller cuts. >> they want bigger cuts. swab traders are pricing in a 40 basis cut which is ridiculous. last week, a full percentage point, they were panicking over what happened. they won a bigger cut but the fed is in a perfect place. i think they got them for 25 basis points in september,

november and december which they should stick with. anything beyond that will send a different message. you get a bigger cut in september that send a different message that they are more worried and getting panicky. i don't think they want to do that. they want to stay the course no matter what tech traders want but it should be what it is. neil: i talked to various fed officials, they are saying we don't watch the markets. we are not slaves to the markets. we are hardly bullied by the markets but invariably they all have markets on in their offices. they are not ignorant what the markets are telling them. >> i agree a 25 basis point cut, usually the fed reserves big guns for when the economy needs it.

but you are right there too. the fed has proven time and again, the stock market, if it is solely a stock market freak out, that alone isn't enough to put the fed avon though everything is interconnected. neil: now that earnings season is over, they were revised downward prior to that, bracing for all afters and if i had sees and ds leaving that aside, there were more than a few, home depot the latest on that front but there for been others. what do you make of the state of the consumer and what it might say about where we are

going? >> 70%, or 58% see revenue grow year-over-year and that speaks to the consumer, they are able to beat their eps, they are not growing top line revenue and you said in the beginning credit card debt is exploding, they ran out of free money, prices continue to go up. because cpi, going at 3%, when does it end and that's what they are frustrated about. we are in a seasonally weak time of year, you see the market back off through october and shake it out and it repairs some of that damage.

neil: thank you very much. another wildcard, and election is a tick. aishah hasnie following donald trump, another key battleground state. >> this is a must win state for the the former president he won in 2020. he thinks if he wins this and georgia and pennsylvania he could clinch this thing in november and this particular county he's picked is very interesting, he's going into the lions den. over and over again, and see a crowd like this. i want to show you what i'm talking about. this is a line waiting for the former president hours before he arrives.

and this has come out in the blue county in north carolina. a hard-hitting statement on the relationship with the harris biden administration under kamala harris, everything cost 20% more than it did under donald trump who has a proven track record of making the country prosperous and affordable. americans can trust him to put more money in their pockets again. trump nearly won north carolina in 2020, one of the seven battleground states that the super pac maga will be spending on between now and labor day. trump is trying to recalibrate a brand-new opponent. and do away with it and stick to the issues, i've been talking to folks on the ground in north carolina and they are telling me how inflation is hitting them.

>> it is horrible. it is unbelievable. >> the first time in college and i think trump's for the people in because of the economy we are struggling right now. people are struggling. >> interesting perspective from a filipino immigrant who is paying the american sky high prices. kamala harris is swinging through friday in north carolina, unveiling her economic plan and she's taking flak for stealing the no taxes on tips policy first proposed by donald trump. they will try to build the middle class and defining goal of their administration, the

rally kicks off to get people inside as quickly as possible and the former president will hold a press conference. we don't know the topic you wants to talk about but i imagine he's trying to double down on the fact that he is inviting people to his home to talk to him, taking an abundance of questions and the vice president is not. neil: does stand in stark contrast. try to get out of the heat. my friend from real clear politics, if i'm up to date on the latest polls, six of seven battleground states in the margin of error, it is a reflection of kamala harris's

growing support might boost those numbers and the sense of urgency between team trump. >> it is similar to when it was a donald trump president biden matchup because they have many of the same policies but the personality is different and one of the things you can't deny is over the last four or five weeks you've seen a democratic machine activate, you've seen folks and big tech, donors, activist and grassroots who are energized and eager. and and not biden. a lot of energy, and the fundamentals and policy arguments might be similar, very different and trump hasn't switched gears.

neil: you get a sense the trump campaign is getting engaged on how to strategize for better than three weeks she's been a democratic standard bearer. it seems to fall on deaf ears. how do you see that part? >> they tried to crash the harris honeymoon. this is going to be trump's second press conference in a couple of weeks. they are trying to draw out the contrast were donald trump is available to the press, taking questions, making clear what he plans to do where, as the vice president, we haven't heard from her in front of reporters, governor tim walz is a question mark. opinions about donald trump are baked in and the electorate are

getting to know harris. there is energy, the possibility of history, the first female president is alluring to a lot of moderate and swing voters. no surprise trump wants to talk about the economy where harris is writing out these headlines. ashley: we are talking about the federal reserve cutting interest rates next month and seems to be given 1/4 point, and how do you think pollsters will see that and voters will respond. >> there's been a fundamental disconnect from what we heard from economists, approaching full employment on a spreadsheet and the way voters feel, that's not fundamentally different. this is a problem for harris because the white house has

pointed to those low unemployment rates as a sign the economy is getting back on track. we will hear the vice president shifting from this focus on low unemployment and focus on the cost of living. the rebuttal from trump that we will continue to hear, she was in office already. why does she need another four years? ashley: good seeing you. you have probably seen the market declining interest rates with a great deal of refinancing activity with 35% of the latest two weeks, 116%. the trend seems to be the friend of refinancing or is it? ♪

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place. it's also worth noting that u.s. officials is whether, as well as other world leaders today, are making those last ditch efforts, trying to get both sides to come to the table, this potential cease fire. not only would decrease

the likely chance of an iranian attack here in israel, but it would also, of course, bring an end to the war in gaza as the death toll there continues to inch closer to that 40,000 mark. number of people who have been killed since the start of the war ten months ago. now among the dead today is one man who says he left his newborn twin babies with his wife to go pick up their birth certificates, only to return back to find that the twins, his wife and his mother in law all had been killed in an attack in the last day. the israeli air force says that it has hit 40 hamas targets across the strip. now looking to the northern part of israel. sirens blared there in the north today amid cross-border attacks. the idf says it struck a hezbollah military structure in southern lebanon. today, the israeli town of kiryat shmona. residents who live there are being told to stay as close to shelters as possible. today u.s. envoy amos hochstein arrived in beirut. today, he and the u.s. ambassador, lisa johnson, met with lebanese

quick de-escalation. >> a diplomatic resolution is achievable. and between lebanon and israel. especially not the lebanese people or the israeli people. >> reporter: the question, as the sunsets in the region, when cease-fire talks take place, will hamas negotiators be there in any way, shape or form? will those negotiations have to be brought to them on a later date prolonging what has been a drawn out negotiation. neil: thank you very much. alex hogan in tel aviv. an intriguing book target

tehran, a senior monetary correspondent, these talks with hamas, it will not change iran's strategy. >> you set a moment to go this is a scary point, this is the most dangerous point in the ten month war. not just israel and hamas. everything they did october 7th is a small player. hezbollah is a bigger player, the most scary player. if you are talking a war with iran and hezbollah, certainly in decades and ballistic missiles, something we've never seen before. since july 30th, people have been living with this danger every day i'm in a secured room in my house, we have extra water of extra supplies, people have generators, everyone is

waiting for this to happen. israeli intelligence is still sure iran will attack, less sure about hezbollah. hezbollah is attacking every day, hezbollah has been attacking for ten months. a much larger attack would lead to a larger war, that's a bigger question. there has been talk if there is a breakthrough in the talks with hamas and a hostage exchange, cadet stop iran? i can't say it is impossible. it looks unlikely. hamas isn't showing up for the talks. one thing i point out, the decider for hamas is in a tunnel in gaza. may at the end of the day not matter if hamas shows up as long as whatever he does want to end the war, sends the message on. neil: than the question becomes this irani in response. whether it is done similar to a

couple months back, a couple hundred missiles launched on israel, or it works through its proxies, attacks by hezbollah to the north, its own plans, houthi rebels and reeking affect in the neighborhood. what if iran leaves it at that? >> that seems unlikely. what transpired here according to iran, every one assumes it doesn't take credit, israel killed the leader of hamas in tehran as a guest in a special part of tehran. this was as embarrassing as you can get. iran has been clear after what they did in april, they fired 120 ballistic missiles, 170 drones, dozens of cruise missiles. the problem they have is in april they were embarrassed, between the united states,

european allies and sunni allies and israel, 99% of those over 300 aerial threats were shot down. they don't want to that to happen. some of what is happening is deciding when they want to attack and some is how they want to attack. will they do it in a number of small sets? can they coordinate to mix israel up? all of these are factors which slowed them down and you see the new president of iran, it wants to look good, and slowed them down and israeli intelligence does believe iran will attack. they wouldn't be enough this time. neil: it is a different definition of moderate elsewhere. stay safe. following that we are following

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google, grady trimble has the latest. >> reporter: the justice department is considering a rare move to dismantle google after the court ruled the company had an illegal monopoly last week or a couple weeks ago. like online searches by paying tens of billions of dollars to other companies like applee th default search engine on iphones and other devices. bloomberg which is citing unnamed sources reports one option is to break up the text company. it says the government could force google to divest its android operating system or divest or license its user data to other users, if it does force the breakup of google it would be the biggest breakup

since at&t in the 80s. it's anything but a done deal. google says it plans to appeal the judge's decision from earlier this month and on top of that even if it does get to the stage of trying to dismantle google as we know it, that could hit a wall too. we have to go back to when the government tried to break up microsoft. they said they would have to sell part of the company. we did reach out to google, the doj tells us no decisions are made. we will wait. neil: in the meantime in the middle of this craziness, there is this, the big lenders are in this market because of this market environment. mars is involved in a $36

billion deal to take over the name behind pringles and pop tarts. anyway, david asman is very healthy. come on. sometimes a big deals happen because of their own sort of rationale. it's interesting timing. david: it is a sign of the times as folks are cutting back on big deals of the day they are eating more snacks and the snack makers understand this. mars had a lot of snacks not available anymore, all of the sweet delicious stuff you and i have in our closet so our wives don't get them but they are going into a healthy snack, the kind bars and in an attempt to do this, mars is a private company. it is a break off of kellogg

which broke into two pieces, that the public company, stock has gone up since mars announced it would make this deal for $30 million but it's a big company that involves a lot of people, 23,000 employees, $13 billion they made last year and they make a lot of stuff, this is the mars brand, the sweet stuff, unhealthy stuff, since people are snacking on healthy stuff more. mars wants to push stuff they can put on supermarket shelves in the snack area which they didn't have. kellogg used to have cereals but that's the part of the company that broke off, they are not making as much as they used to. people are snacking more. mars saw that and want to get into the snack business and

increase their portfolio in the supermarket and snack division. people's eating habits because of the tough times with inflation is beginning to affect big deals, affect a lot of people like you and me who eat the snacks. neil: if you are depressed you've got to eat it. i remember a certain movie to that affected. david: can i just say one thing on this antitrust deal on google. one thing antitrust fanatics with the biden administration don't seem to get is a lot of competition for google and there are suggestions the elon box because he got into the internet stuff with his purchase of x, might develop a search engine of his own to compete with google. you have the duck duck search

engine making headway but not really pressuring google. the market itself is pressuring google without efforts of the antitrust officials at the justice department. might be better to lay back a little bit and let the market work rather than get in there with these lawsuits. neil: they obviously have an agenda here. i wanted your thoughts on snacks. you gave us this. you are a walking encyclopedia. david asman if he is eating this stuff. don't know if kingfisher eats any of this stuff. he runs one of the best investment firms on the planet and has been bullish on this market. wonder how he feels right about now. ♪

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and no downtime. i'm so glad i did it. it was successful in every way. to learn more, call today or go to gentlecure.com with so much entertainment out there wouldn't it be great... ...if you could find what you t want, all in one place? show me paris. xfinity internet customers can enjoy the ultimate entertainment experience and save on some of the biggest names in streaming, all for just $15 a month. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. neil: hard to believe with the downturn to the nasdaq, the

market averages are higher than they were after august 2nd before the dow lost a thousand points in one day. that was a different market number but we remember how freaked out the markets were, and early meeting leading by half a point. my next guest joins us now, fisher investments founder and chairman, ken fisher. don't know how else comeback lasts compared to where we were on august 2nd. almost as if august 5th never happened. what do you think? >> thanks for having me back on. second, i enjoyed your snack conversation with dave asman and i would say the main snack food during this period that the market was dealing on was

snickers and the commentary, my stock answer is most all of the negative reviews were if you thought about it in a more healthy way they were nuts but the fact is for a year and three quarters i've been telling you this is a ball market, it won't last forever but one of the features people talk about are derailing the market that exists and it is a good thing. if we set sentiment lower and set base for the next, so many things people were gyrating on as i said on your show ten days ago all at the same time why it is terrible, it worked effectively. neil: what are the signals you happens, what noise do you see?

>> they end with a long rollover, where the market goes sideways and down slowly, before it plunges. aura big bad shock nobody has ever talked about that surprises everyone in the singular focus like what happened with covid. for a fact of the matter is the other thing you are looking for is excessive euphoria and things -- the optimism is euphoria, and on euphoria but don't but die on optimism

unless you get that. the fact of the matter, people focus on enable market is keeps getting high year making fear of heights greater and keep looking for all the wrong things. as i said endless times to you, it is always a mistake. they are excited about things they did this time with employment numbers not as good as they like or the unemployment rate up a little more, it is a potential problem. the fact of the matter is all those things focus on government related data that aren't that precise to begin with in reading into them small changes. something is not accurate,

shouldn't be paid much attention to. neil: do you look at real estate much? of 36% clip in the latest week, and boosting that type of activity over the next two weeks. what do you make of that? >> driving down the road, you see a two ways. and the inflation numbers that came out this morning, one upward driver, that are not accurate to begin with, and the increase in real estate prices. the homeowner, the increase in real estate is a good thing. you complain about lack of

affordability and mortgage rate comes down making it more affordable and you buy a house and that pushes the price up so it's a good thing or a bad thing, it is a pretty normal thing and nothing about this is extraordinary so people shouldn't get excited about it. people get too excited about something into the big which is a sign of optimism, not euphoria. when you are euphoria, you get huge numbers of ipos, into the future. you see all kind of people talking pie in the sky that you need to be more concerned, it is modest at best went straight off the top. and this is a good thing, not a bad thing.

neil: the $36 billion deal you can make a substantive deal off of addresses this competition and obviously in a meaner way under one company. is that a good or bad thing? something like this is noteworthy. the absence of huge deals. >> the fact of the matter is that's perfectly parallel for what has gone on the last couple years anyway where private equity activities have been subdued. we have a time lag, a tougher time making money off of the deal. some of this was low interest rate money being employed previously. my point is the world of large

takeovers, when we get too optimistic you see more takeovers because management believes that they see a great future and can justify the takeovers, the relative paucity is another sign that we are not in the semi euphoric stage of something people should worry about, we don't have a lot of ipos, we don't have a lot of crazy ipos or crazy takeovers. when you have a takeover, the odds are not perfectly so but usually so and the buyer knows what they are buying. you have this due diligence which they do, the fact of the matter is in this process, they

still get overwhelmed by their own emotion and all of us around all of us, when i say that, all of us around all of us feeding on each other emotionally and corporate management just as prone to be overwhelmed by emotion as anybody else, to the taxi driver, the fact is relative paucity is a good thing, not a bad thing. neil: you made people think. ken fisher, fisher investment, same here. the dow up more than it was, we will have more after this.

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neil: that is a great bunch of people. the nasdaq narrowly down. waiting for a very scary thing,

iran promises and attack on his realizes real showing growing support in the latest surveys for an offensive against hezbollah. separately, israel is sending a delegation to negotiate with hamas, hamas isn't going there. started this war, don't want to negotiate a cease-fire plan that would end it. there lies the rub but at the same time, getting more us naval assets descending on the area, largest such concentration of naval power since the iraqi war. these are the unexpected developments that could move markets but are not moving them now. there doesn't appear to be any impact on our markets. oil sliding down nominally as we speak. jackie: i am jackie deangelis.